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USGS2024

Aftershock forecasting

Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the probability of aftershocks can therefore aid decision-making during earthquake response and recovery. Several countries issue authoritative aftershock forecasts. Most aftershock forecasts are based on simple statistical models that were first developed in the 1980s and remain the best available models. We review these statistical models, and the wide-ranging research to advance aftershock forecasting through better statistical, physical, and machine learning methods. Physics-based forecasts based on mainshock stress changes can sometimes match the statistical models in testing, but don’t yet outperform them. Physical models are also hampered by unsolved problems such as the mechanics of dynamic triggering and the influence of background conditions. Initial work on machine learning forecasts shows promise, and new machine learning earthquake catalogs provide an opportunity to advance all types of aftershock forecasts.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences↗

USGS2026

Wind River subbasin restoration: Annual report of U.S. Geological Survey activities January 2024 through December 2024

We sampled juvenile wild Oncorhynchus mykiss (Steelhead Trout) in headwater streams of the Wind River, Washington, to characterize population attributes and investigate life-history metrics, particularly migratory patterns, and early life-stage survival. Additionally, this sampling provides an index of abundance of non-native Brook Trout Salvelinus confluentus . We used passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging and a series of instream PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTISs) to track juveniles and adults. The Wind River subbasin is considered a wild Steelhead refuge by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW). No hatchery Steelhead Trout have been released in the Wind River subbasin since 1997, and hatchery adults are estimated at less than one percent of spawners in most years. Over 25 years of Steelhead Trout status and trend monitoring and research in the subbasin is contributing to understanding of population response to numerous restoration actions in the subbasin, including removal of Hemlock Dam from Trout Creek in 2009, which had an inadequate adult ladder and contributed to increased water temperatures, to near lethal levels for salmonids. Data from our study, and companion work by WDFW, are contributing to the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Program (2009) Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation (RM&E) Strategy of Fish Population Status Monitoring. Specifically, this work addresses the sub-strategies of 1) Assessing the Status and Trends of Diversity of Natural Origin Fish Populations and Uncertainties Research regarding differing life histories of a wild Steelhead Trout population, 2) Assessing the Status and Trend of Adult Natural Origin Fish Populations, and 3) Monitoring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tributary Habitat Actions Relative to Environmental, Physical, or Biological Performance Objectives. During summer and fall 2024, we PIT-tagged 2,075 Steelhead Trout parr (age-0 and age-1), in the Trout Creek and upper Wind River watersheds. Age-0 and age-1 parr were at high abundance due to strong spawner numbers in 2023 and 2024 (Estimate of 932 in 2023; and a moderate number of spawners in 2024 though an estimate is not available at this time; 24-year median = 619; Charlie Cochran, WDFW Fish Biologist, personal commun., 2025). An additional 100 parr (age-0 and age-2 or older) were tagged to provide fish for estimating detection efficiencies at PTISs. Steelhead Trout parr were recaptured and detected through repeat headwater sampling, smolt trapping, instream PTISs and Columbia River mainstem PIT-tag detection. We maintained and upgraded six instream PTISs to detect PIT-tagged Steelhead Trout parr, smolts, and adults, providing data for population assessments, and life-cycle research. Detection data from PIT-tagged adult Steelhead Trout at our four primary PTISs allow assessment of adult escapement to tributary watersheds within the Wind River subbasin. Most adult Steelhead detected were tagged by WDFW at an adult trap in the lower Wind River and some as smolts at screw traps. Adult Steelhead Trout detection efficiency estimates at our primary PTIS in Trout Creek have been greater than 99 percent during eight of the past ten years and have exceeded 97% at our primary PTIS in the Wind River during nine of the past ten years. Adult escapement estimates to tributary watersheds are helping evaluate the efficacy of the 2009 removal of Hemlock Dam from rkm 2.0 of Trout Creek. Detections at the instream PTISs have shown trends of age-0 and age-1 Steelhead Trout parr emigration from natal areas during summer and fall, in addition to the expected movement of parr and smolts in spring. Our data suggest that most fish from a cohort that migrate downstream will do so at age-1 for additional rearing in the subbasin. We have estimated that from 15% to 56% of parr tagged as age-0 fish in headwater areas make downstream migrations at age-1 for additional rearing (median = 29%). We have estimated that from 1% to 27% of Steelhead Trout parr, tagged as age-1 fish, make downstream migrations during fall (median = 3.5%): this is especially pronounced in the upper Wind River portion of the watershed (median 10%). These findings raise questions about parr rearing habitat and whether migrations are density- or habitat-quality driven, and answers to such questions are long-term goals of this study as active and passive habitat restoration occurs. Repeat sampling at sites in the subbasin within and between years has enabled assessment of juvenile Steelhead Trout growth patterns. Growth rates (relative change in weight) of age-0 PIT-tagged parr during summer have been similar across the subbasin, though slightly lower in the Trout Creek watershed (Trout Creek sites, 0.57 - 1.25%/day, Wind River sites = 0.94 – 2.48%/day). Summer growth rates have been lower for age-1 parr in the Trout Creek watershed than the upper Wind River watershed (Trout Creek sites, = 0.03 - 0.14%/day, Wind River sites = 0.05 – 0.19%/day). Yearly relative growth was similar across the subbasin for both age-0 and age-1 tagged parr. During 2024 range of mean daily relative change in weight from the previous year for age-0 tagged fish was: Trout Creek sites = 0.96 – 1.41%/day, Wind River sites = 0.80 – 1.30 %/day; and for age1 tagged fish was: Trout Creek sites = 0.37 - 0.50 %/day, Wind River sites = no age-1 tagged recaptures. Non-native Brook Trout are present in the subbasin, chiefly the Trout Creek watershed. Mean percent-of-catch that is Brook Trout, at four sample sites in Trout Creek, has declined from the period 1998 – 2003 to the period 2011 – 2024 (range of decrease = 19 - 82%). Percent-of-catch (of 64 samples, 52 < 10%; 3 > 20%) and number of Brook Trout at the Trout Creek sites from 2011 through 2024, though variable, have generally declined. Habitat restoration evaluation efforts are critical to ensure efficient use of money and resources but require long-term monitoring of population metrics. Detailed viable salmonid population and life-history data, such as that provided by PIT-tagging and instream PTIS networks inform fisheries policy and management and enable assessment of long-term effects of habitat restoration actions such as the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek and proposed major instream habitat restoration in the upper Wind River.

Washington↗

USGS2024

Declining groundwater storage expected to amplify mountain streamflow reductions in a warmer world

Groundwater interactions with mountain streams are often simplified in model projections, potentially leading to inaccurate estimates of streamflow response to climate change. Here, using a high-resolution, integrated hydrological model extending 400 m into the subsurface, we find groundwater an important and stable source of historical streamflow in a mountainous watershed of the Colorado River. In a warmer climate, increased forest water use is predicted to reduce groundwater recharge resulting in groundwater storage loss. Losses are expected to be most severe during dry years and cannot recover to historical levels even during simulated wet periods. Groundwater depletion substantially reduces annual streamflow with intermittent conditions predicted when precipitation is low. Expanding results across the region suggests groundwater declines will be highest in the Colorado Headwater and Gunnison basins. Our research highlights the tight coupling of vegetation and groundwater dynamics and that excluding explicit groundwater response to warming may underestimate future reductions in mountain streamflow.

Nature Water↗

USGS2025

Surficial geology and Quaternary tectonics of the Madison Valley and fault zone, Madison, Gallatin, and Beaverhead Counties, southwest Montana

The north-northwest-striking Madison fault is approximately 95 kilometers in length, lying at the confluence of the northeastern Basin and Range province and the Yellowstone tectonic parabola. The fault zone consists primarily of west-dipping normal faults that have east-dipping antithetic faults, which create the Madison Valley graben and several northeast-trending intrabasin faults. The Madison fault and associated sections discussed herein refer to the main west-dipping, range-bounding fault along the eastern side of the valley. Detailed geologic mapping (1:12,000 scale) of the entire fault zone and fault scarp profiling (total of 102 profiles) of the Madison fault reveal greater late Quaternary paleoseismic activity towards the south, including at least three paleoevents along the southern part of the fault that postdate Pinedale glaciation. Early to middle Holocene alluvial fans have vertical surface offsets that average between 2.0 and 3.0 meters and define the characteristic single-event surface offset. Pinedale lateral moraines have vertical surface offsets as great as 12.0 meters. Late Pleistocene to Holocene multiple-event fault scarps show little evidence of beveling, suggesting short seismic recurrence intervals and potential late Pleistocene and Holocene temporal clustering. Long-term average tectonic activity rates indicate slip rates ranging from 0.18–0.6 millimeters per year. Based on a comparison of fault-scarp height versus maximum slope angle of known regression lines developed from other paleoseismic investigations, the most recent event ranges from 5–1 ka. The northern section of the fault zone is defined by multiple normal faults, which detached the hanging walls of Laramide thrust faults within the Paleozoic and Mesozoic strata. This resulted in the partitioning of extension along multiple preexisting structures and less displacement along individual normal fault strands. Structural controls on lateral propagation of individual paleoevents involve the position of lateral ramps along preexisting Laramide contractional faults. This resulted in greater displacement within the larger basement-cored structures along the southern section of the fault zone, where extension is accommodated by one inferred principal basement-involved normal fault. Inferred east-northeast trending, intrabasin, normal faults within the southern half of the fault zone have no late Pleistocene displacement.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Seamless Geologic Map Database for the Intermountain West, United States: A foundational dataset for mineral systems analysis

The Intermountain West has a complex geologic history, resulting in the formation of a diverse array of mineral deposits. Effective mineral exploration requires understanding the spatial and temporal relationships among geologic processes and events, a key focus of the mineral systems approach to exploration. This paper presents the Intermountain West Seamless Geologic Map Database, a unified dataset designed to support mineral exploration. Integrating geologic provinces, structural settings, and hydrothermal alteration, the database leverages the Seamless Integrated Geologic Mapping (SIGMa) extension to the USGS Geologic Map Schema (GeMS) to standardize geologic data from varied sources. SIGMa's hierarchical stratigraphic organization and feature-level metadata enhance data interoperability and reusability, enabling seamless query, analysis, and visualization of lithology, structural features, mineral deposits, geochronology, hydrothermal alteration. volcanic activity, and By providing a regionally consistent and dynamically evolving geologic map, this database provides a foundational framework for mineral exploration and geologic research. It also allows for an efficient workflow that expedites the publication of integrated geologic map databases.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2026

Estimating habitat availability for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) to inform reintroduction planning in the middle Snake River basin, USA

Anadromous fishes have been blocked from the middle Snake River basin since the construction of flood control, irrigation, and hydroelectric projects during the 19 th and 20 th centuries, culminating with the construction of Hells Canyon Dam (river kilometer [rkm] 398) in 1967. Seven large watersheds in the blocked area of the basin are under consideration for Pacific salmon reintroduction. The primary objective of this study was to identify and characterize potential reintroduction sites with high-quality rearing and spawning habitat for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and steelhead ( O. mykiss ) upstream of the Hells Canyon Complex in Idaho, Oregon, and Nevada, USA. We created and tested habitat models to predict rearing presence/absence, rearing abundance, and spawning presence/absence using channel morphology, hydrology, and stream temperature variables obtained from regional peer-reviewed datasets. Habitat models were trained with salmonid presence and abundance records collected in the lower Snake River basin (downstream of Hells Canyon Dam), where anadromous fish can currently access, from 1993 to 2011. Model performance was tested with set-aside data comprised of randomly selected reaches and independent environmental DNA data. An index model was created in the middle Snake River basin for each species by combining results from the habitat models. Modeling covariates differed by species and life stage and included different combinations of August stream temperature, summer flow, channel slope, and quadratic terms for temperature and slope. The habitat models predicted high versus low Chinook salmon and steelhead probability and abundance with 66% to 85% accuracy depending on species and life stage. The index models predicted a total of 2,887 km of Chinook salmon habitat and 2,434 km of steelhead habitat in the blocked area. The three basins in the blocked area with the greatest amount of predicted habitat were the Powder River, South Fork Payette River, and North Fork Payette River for Chinook salmon, and the Powder River, South Fork Boise River, and South Fork Payette River for steelhead. The modeling approach presented here is complementary to other planning efforts for Chinook salmon and steelhead reintroduction in the blocked area of the Snake River basin, and similar approaches may be useful for reintroduction planning in other systems.

Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Colored shaded-relief bathymetry and acoustic backscatter of Lake Sammamish, Washington

Evidence of strong earthquakes (such as underwater landslides and associated deposits) may be recorded within the lacustrine sediments of Pacific Northwest lakes. The floor of Lake Sammamish, Wash., an approximately 11 kilometer (6.8 mile) long, 2 kilometer (1.2 mile) wide, and 35 meter (114.8 feet) deep lake located in a populated region just east of Seattle, was mapped by the U.S. Geological Survey in November of 2021 to search for evidence of past earthquakes. Mapping was conducted using a SWATHplus-M 234-kHz interferometric side-scan sonar system was pole-mounted on the U.S. Geological Survey research vessel Parke Snavely, and the system collected full-coverage bathymetric and acoustic backscatter data, which were processed to 2-meter spatial resolution. Two maps were created, a colored shaded-relief bathymetric map showing lake floor morphology (sheet 1), and an acoustic-backscatter map showing backscatter intensities (sheet 2). The results may then be utilized together to investigate past earthquake activity.

Washington↗

USGS2026

Guidelines for producing integrated 210Pb and 14C age-models

Accurate reconstructions of past environmental changes are crucial in paleoecological research and require reliable chronologies of sedimentary archives. Establishing robust age-models and obtaining the most appropriate proxies for analysis is a complex scientific endeavor, requiring extensive resources and collaboration among specialists, including radiochronologists. Radiometric dating methods, such as 210 Pb and radiocarbon ( 14 C), are frequently employed to establish chronologies in aquatic sedimentary deposits and peat bogs. In this study, we review key aspects of sampling, analysis, and the principles underlying 210 Pb and 14 C age-models, focusing on methods for developing robust joint chronologies for paleoenvironmental research. Drawing largely from the authors' experiences and group discussions during and after a scientific workshop in 2022, we discuss important considerations for site selection, sampling strategies, and radiometric dating to construct integrated 210 Pb and 14 C age-models. Using expert consensus, this group – called Paleostats – aims to provide a set of best practices for other geochronologists with this methods paper. Among our conclusions, we emphasize the importance of accounting for site-specific factors such as prior information on sedimentation rates to establish appropriate sampling and analytical strategies. The use of appropriate coring devices can minimize disturbance to sediments and ensure the core surface remains intact and preserved until sectioning. Where excess 210 Pb is expected, sectioning at intervals of ≤1 cm provides an adequate sampling resolution for 210 Pb dating. Exceptions are possible, allowing for ~2–3 cm sections in areas with confirmed high sedimentation rates (e.g., > 1 cm yr −1 ). Recovering deeper core sections for 14 C dating with sufficient overlap allows for accounting errors in depth estimates made in the field. Special attention is advised during time intervals where validation proxies, such as the human-made radionuclides 137 Cs or post-bomb 14 C, are expected, and to determine the depth of secular equilibrium between 210 Pb and 226 Ra. Radiocarbon analyses are commonly performed by accelerator mass spectrometry, and age models are constructed mainly using Bayesian statistics with Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques (e.g., Bacon ). A Bayesian approach ( Plum ) is now available for producing 210 Pb age-models, which infers the 210 Pb ex flux, eliminates the need for selecting an equilibrium depth, and allows dating cores with incomplete 210 Pb ex inventory. Plum offers improved chronologies by integrating raw 210 Pb and 14 C data, and these age-models can be enriched with other dating methodologies, such as identifying tephras and other well-recorded historical events. Harmonized reporting would contribute to making radiometric age-models reproducible, which would benefit from an international effort. Using 210 Pb and 14 C to produce integrated age-models may yield better insights into the interplay between natural and recent anthropogenic forcings on ecosystems. This can enhance our understanding of environmental processes and their impacts on climate change, ultimately supporting science-based assessments and decisions.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2024

Bedrock geologic map of the Woodstock quadrangle, Grafton County, New Hampshire

The bedrock geology of the Woodstock 7.5-minute quadrangle consists of highly deformed metasedimentary rocks of the Central Maine trough, including the Silurian Rangeley and Perry Mountain Formations and the Devonian Littleton Formation. The central, northern, and eastern parts of the quadrangle are underlain by the oldest rocks in the area, the Rangeley Formation. In the southwest and south-central part of the quadrangle, metaturbidites of the Perry Mountain Formation and subsequent Littleton Formation overly the Rangeley Formation in a deformed F 1 synform, herein informally called the Bagley Brook basin. The metasedimentary rocks were intruded by widespread syn- to post-tectonic granitoids of the Devonian New Hampshire Plutonic Suite and minor post-metamorphic Jurassic-Cretaceous mafic dikes of the White Mountain Plutonic-Volcanic Suite. The metasedimentary rocks were affected by at least two episodes of deformation in the Devonian Acadian orogeny. The dominant regional foliation is second-generation (S 2 /D 2 ) and formed during the development of sillimanite-muscovite mineral assemblages. Large bodies of the Early Devonian Kinsman Granodiorite intruded the metasedimentary rocks semi-concordantly during D 2 deformation. Dikes of the Late Devonian Concord Granite cut the Kinsman Granodiorite and the metasedimentary rocks and were emplaced either syn- or post-D 2 . The map pattern in the Rangeley Formation is dominated by northeast to northwest trending, moderately to steeply north-dipping F 2 and F 3 folds. Map-scale F 1 folds are defined by the Bagley Brook basin. Previous division of Rangeley Formation stratigraphy in this region into “upper” and “lower” parts was not corroborated by 1:24,000-scale mapping of lithodemic units, and rocks previously mapped as part of the Smalls Falls and Madrid Formations are here reassigned to the Rangeley Formation. Some rocks previously mapped as the lower part of the Littleton Formation are now assigned to the Perry Mountain Formation. The Littleton Formation on this map is approximately equivalent to rocks previously mapped as the upper part of the same formation. Steeply dipping fractures in the quadrangle show a preferred northeast orientation, consistent with subsurface fracture orientations in the well fields near Mirror Lake. Jurassic-Cretaceous mafic dikes and normal faults show preferred northeast orientations, similar to the fractures, suggesting that the extensional stress field that controlled dike orientation during the Mesozoic also produced the dominant brittle fabrics in the area.

New Hampshire↗

USGS2026

Color-Shaded Relief Bathymetry of Lake Chelan, Washington

In 2023, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed a 3-week field operation in Lake Chelan, Washington, the third deepest lake in the conterminous United States, to acquire sediment cores, high-resolution bathymetry data, and chirp sub-bottom profiles. The high-resolution bathymetry displayed in this map publication was collected using a Norbit Winghead i67-curved array multibeam system; raw data were cleaned and gridded (3 by 3 meters [m]) in the Teledyne CARIS software. In some locations where the slopes of Lake Chelan are near-vertical, multibeam returns were sparse, resulting in artifacts resembling holes that appear as grey dots within the color-shaded bathymetric relief. Although the 2023 bathymetric mapping of Lake Chelan resulted in similar morphometric characteristics to previous hydrographic campaigns (table 1; Kendra and Singleton, 1987; Pelletier and others, 1989), these new data provide a much more detailed understanding of the two physiographic basins that comprise Lake Chelan: the deeper (as deep as 445.8 m [fig. 1]; previously reported as 453 m) and narrower (1–2 kilometers [km] wide) Lucerne Basin to the north, and the shallower (as deep as 127.8 m [fig. 1]), and wider (2–3 km wide) Wapato Basin to the south. With this detailed imaging of Lake Chelan, we find pervasive morphological evidence of slope failure and mass-transport deposits (MTDs) in at least 89 locations within the lake and 63 subaqueous deltas (fig. 2). The deeper Lucerne Basin is dominated by steep slopes and numerous subaqueous deltas fed by steep fluvial catchments, whereas the Wapato Basin contains numerous landslide scarps, scars, and debris aprons along the more gently sloping lake margins, and abundant relict kettle structures from the Pleistocene deglaciation. Lake Chelan’s geomorphic, geophysical, and sediment data contain important records of glacial retreat and advance, regional volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes that generate ground motions severe enough to induce landslides recorded in the sediment as MTDs. The epicenter of the 1872 Washington State Earthquake (M 6.5–7.2; Bakun and others, 2002; Brocher and others, 2017; Sherrod and others, 2021) is along the Spencer Canyon Fault, near the southern end of Lake Chelan. Shaking from this earthquake was strong enough to affect local aquifers, induce liquefaction of unconsolidated sediments, produce large seiches (Brocher and others, 2018), and likely cause landslides within Lake Chelan.

Washington↗

USGS2025

Extracting data from maps: Lessons learned from the artificial intelligence for critical mineral assessment competition

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Defense Advanced Projects Research Agency (DARPA), NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), and MITRE ran a 12-week machine learning competition aimed at accelerating development of AI tools for critical mineral assessments. The Artificial Intelligence for Critical Mineral Assessment Competition solicited innovative solutions for two challenges: 1) automated georeferencing of historical maps, and 2) automated feature extraction from historical maps. Competitors used a new dataset of historical map images to train, validate, and evaluate their models. Automated georeferencing pipelines attained a median root-mean square error of 1.1 km. Prompt-based extraction (i.e., with user input) of polygons, polylines, and points from geologic maps yielded median F1-scores of 0.77, 0.56, 0.35, respectively. Geologic maps pose numerous challenges for AI workflows because they vary significantly. However, despite its short duration, the competition yielded promising results that have since spurred further innovation in this area and led to the development of new AI tools to semi-automate key, time-consuming parts of the assessment workflow.

Applied Computing and Geosciences↗

USGS2025

Introduction to the special section on improving measurements of earthquake source parameters

Earthquake source parameters such as magnitude, seismic moment, source dimension, stress drop, and radiated energy are fundamental to understanding earthquake physics, and are also key ingredients in earthquake ground‐motion modeling, rupture simulation, and statistical seismology. However, the uncertainties in these parameters estimated from the radiated seismic wavefield are large due to variability in approaches, including site and attenuation characterizations, and so estimates for an individual earthquake made by different studies can vary greatly. Estimating spectral source parameters remains a popular topic, due to a combination of their intrinsic importance and their apparent ease of measurement, but also a controversial one, due to many sources of variability and large uncertainty. The available methods coupled with necessary parameter choices and assumptions in the analysis make it challenging for researchers to apply methods or understand the reliability in results or reported source parameters. This Special Section on Improving Measurements of Earthquake Source Parameters showcasing comparisons between methods and studies seeks to alleviate some of these difficulties to help the community identify the important components and trade‐offs of decomposing recorded seismograms into their source, path, and site components.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2016

Sedimentary exhalative (sedex) zinc-lead-silver deposit model

This report draws on previous syntheses and basic research studies of sedimentary exhalative (sedex) deposits to arrive at the defining criteria, both descriptive and genetic, for sedex-type deposits. Studies of the tectonic, sedimentary, and fluid evolution of modern and ancient sedimentary basins have also been used to select defining criteria. The focus here is on the geologic characteristics of sedex deposit-hosting basins that contain greater than 10 million metric tons of zinc and lead. The enormous size of sedex deposits strongly suggests that basin-scale geologic processes are involved in their formation. It follows that mass balance constraints of basinal processes can provide a conceptual underpinning for the evaluation of potential ore-forming mechanisms and the identification of geologic indicators for ore potential in specific sedimentary basins. Empirical data and a genetic understanding of the physicochemical, geologic, and mass balance conditions required for each of these elements are used to establish a hierarchy of quantifiable geologic criteria that can be used in U.S. Geological Survey national assessments. In addition, this report also provides a comprehensive evaluation of environmental considerations associated with the mining of sedex deposits.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2025

Hydrogeologic mapping and three-dimensional geologic modeling of glacial deposits in a multicounty area of southeastern Michigan, northeastern Indiana, and northwestern Ohio

The glacial deposits underlying southeastern Michigan, northeastern Indiana, and northwestern Ohio are a substantial source of water to communities, agriculture, and industry in the region. Previous efforts to characterize aquifer materials in the area cited a need for additional information about the underlying hydrogeologic characteristics and related groundwater availability as well as improved mapping of the extent and properties of the glacial deposits. Recent U.S. Geological Survey multi-State compilations of water-well drilling records have greatly increased access to high-resolution geologic data, particularly in glacial depositional environments. This study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency, uses processed data from the State-managed collections of well records to characterize the glacial deposits in the study area using two methods. The first method creates two-dimensional maps of basic hydrogeologic information commonly required for assessments of groundwater availability, including (1) total thickness of glacial deposits, (2) total thickness of coarse-grained deposits, (3) specific-capacity-based transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity, and (4) texture-based estimated equivalent horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity. The second method builds a hydrogeologic framework of the complex glacial aquifer through construction of a volumetric geologic model by using three-dimensional kriging. Results of the volumetric model indicate that aquifer materials are primarily concentrated in the western parts of the study area near the Indiana-Ohio border. Coarse-grained sediments are also present as surficial deposits in the north of the study area where intermixing glacial advances created complex distributions of unconsolidated deposits. Two-dimensional maps of hydrogeologic properties support the volumetric model, showing thicknesses of coarse-grained deposits that reach up to 250 feet in the western sections of the study area and progressively thin to near absence in the east. Visualization of the aquifer materials with a volumetric model generally shows a highly discontinuous distribution of coarse- and fine-grained materials, with no clearly defined boundaries to delineate the extent of the aquifer. Comparisons of cross sections derived from the volumetric model with existing published maps support previous near-surface hydrogeologic interpretations while filling gaps where data are sparse, particularly in deeper parts of the aquifer. Both the two-dimensional maps and the volumetric model provide data that can directly inform assessments of groundwater availability, in addition to having future applications to studies of groundwater flow and transport.

Indiana, Michigan, Ohio↗

USGS2024

The SCEC/USGS community stress drop validation study using the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence

We introduce a community stress drop validation study using the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence, in which researchers are invited to use a common dataset to independently estimate comparable measurements using a variety of methods. Stress drop is the change in average shear stress on a fault during earthquake rupture, and as such is a key parameter in many ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics problems in earthquake science. Spectral stress drop is commonly estimated by fitting the shape of the radiated energy spectrum, yet estimates for an individual earthquake made by different studies can vary hugely. In this community study, sponsored jointly by the U. S. Geological Survey and Southern/Statewide California Earthquake Center, we seek to understand the sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake stress drop through quantitative comparison of submitted stress drops. The publicly available dataset consists of nearly 13,000 earthquakes of M1 to 7 from two weeks of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence recorded on stations within 1-degree. As a community study, findings are shared through workshops and meetings and all are invited to join at any time, at any interest level.

Seismica↗

USGS2024

Changes in soil erosion caused by wildfire: A conceptual biogeographic model

Soil erosion rates after wildfire are strongly controlled by intrinsic properties such as topography, weather, climate, soil, and vegetation. These landscape and hydroclimatic properties are important in determining post-fire erosion rates; however, their influence on post-fire erosion and their interaction with the intensity of a wildfire remains uncertain. A key limitation in resolving this uncertainty is the lack of conceptual models and frameworks for organising data related to the geomorphic sensitivity of landscapes to wildfire. Our aim is to develop a framework for consolidating understanding of post-fire erosion in the context of hydroclimatic conditions which contribute to system states, for example soil and vegetation properties, and wildfire regime. The framework is developed around a simple conceptual model where the change in erosion due to wildfire is a product of change in runoff generation and sediment supply, which is strongly related to landscape net primary productivity (NPP). We hypothesised that geomorphic sensitivity to wildfire should vary as a unimodal humped relationship across a gradient of NPP, peaking at an intermediate level. To develop this framework and to test the hypothesis, we first review intrinsic soil and vegetation properties related to the supply and transport of sediment from burned and unburned hillslopes. Net primary productivity is systematically related to these intrinsic properties because it integrates many processes involved in soil and vegetation development. Empirical data indicate a trend in the change in surface runoff generation with NPP after wildfire, peaking at an NPP of approximately 15 Mg C ha −1 y −1 . A simple model of fuel availability and soil heating are correlated with a similar “humped” trend in sediment supply. These results are consistent with our conceptual model, which indicates that sediment supply and runoff contribute towards a distinct peak in wildfire effects on erosion at an intermediate level of NPP. We propose that landscapes of intermediate NPP typically have the highest quantity of fuel available to burn, which cause large changes to the soil surface properties. Landscapes at intermediate NPP also tend to produce intrinsic soil and vegetation properties that promote erosion after wildfire. The interplay between these short and long-term landscape characteristics is strongest at intermediate levels of NPP. Our proposed biogeographic model of geomorphic sensitivity to wildfire was supported by erosion data from burned hillslope and zero-order catchments studies from a range fire-prone landscapes in Australia and North America. Our proposed conceptual model will help identify areas most vulnerable to post-fire erosion changes.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2024

Quantitative risk of earthquake disruption to global copper and rhenium supply

Earthquakes have the potential to substantially affect mining operations, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and adversely affecting the global economy. This study explores the quantification of earthquake risk to copper and rhenium commodity supply by examining the spatial concentration of high earthquake hazard areas and the commodity-specific mining, smelting, and refining operations across the globe. Because many of the largest facilities are concentrated geographically near the highly seismic regions of South America, East Asia, and the Pacific, there is a potential for cascading effects on the entire supply chain. The analysis indicates that the expected annual disruption of global production is 0.3–1.1 percent for copper mines, 1.8–4.0 percent for smelters, and 1.5–3.3 percent for refineries. Expected annual disruption of global rhenium production capacity is 0.32–1.32 percent. The research highlights that the potential lost revenue from earthquake disruptions is from $315 million to $1.29 billion for copper mining, $1.92 billion to $4.33 billion for copper smelting, $2.06 billion to $4.52 billion for copper refining, and $337,000 to $1.40 million for rhenium production capacity.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

Overview of the Cenozoic geology of the northern Harrat Rahat volcanic field, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

The Harrat Rahat volcanic field, located in the west-central part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is one of the larger Cenozoic harrats among the more than 17 harrats situated upon the Arabia Plate. The map plate contained herein shows, at a scale of 1:100,000, the mapped volcanic geology of northern Harrat Rahat, which consists of the northernmost one-fifth of Harrat Rahat. Northern Harrat Rahat has an area of about 3,340 square kilometers (km 2 ), of which 2,567 km 2 is covered by Harrat Rahat volcanic rocks and deposits, and it encompasses more than 900 exposed vents (that is, craters, cryptodomes, maars, and scoria cones), 289 of which are isolated by younger volcanic deposits and have not been correlated with the 234 volcanic rock units distinguished by geologic mapping. Northern Harrat Rahat is of special interest owing to its proximity to the city of Al Madinah al Munawwarah, which sits within, and is continuing to expand southward over, the north end of the volcanic field. Al Madinah is home to an expanding population, currently at more than 2 million residents, together with the intermittent addition of approximately 3 million pilgrims during Hajj and Umrah (religious visitations). The center of Al Madinah is less than 8 km from lava flows of the only confirmed historically documented eruption, which occurred in 1256 C.E. (654 A.H.). Earlier prehistoric lava flows also encroached into the area of the present-day city limits, as demonstrated by volcanic rocks exposed widely throughout the city in roadcuts, parks, and excavations for new buildings, although no evidence has been found of any other than the 1256 C.E. lava having reached that area during times of human habitation. Geologic mapping was undertaken by the U.S. Geological Survey in collaboration with the Saudi Geological Survey. The features of primary interest within the map area are scoria cones, lava flows, lava domes, craters, and pyroclastic deposits from the Quaternary, which have compositions of basalt, hawaiite, mugearite, benmoreite, and trachyte. The geologic mapping was published by Downs and others (2019) on a single sheet at 1:75,000 scale and two detailed sheets at 1:25,000 scale, accompanied by detailed explanations of the geology. This report presents the geology on a single sheet at 1:100,000 scale and provides condensed geologic explanations for the convenience of readers of this volume. Some minor errors of nomenclature and lava source regions that do not change fundamental interpretations have been corrected herein.

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