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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Mapping landslide susceptibility over large regions with limited data

Landslide susceptibility maps indicate the spatial distribution of landslide likelihood. Modeling susceptibility over large or diverse terrains remains a challenge due to the sparsity of landslide data (mapped extent of known landslides) and the variability in triggering conditions. Several different data sampling strategies of landslide locations used to train a susceptibility model are used to mitigate this challenge. However, to our knowledge, no study has systematically evaluated how different sampling strategies alter a model's predictor effects (i.e., how a predictor value influences the susceptibility output) critical to explaining differences in model outputs. Here, we introduce a statistical framework that examines the variation in predictor effects and the model accuracy (measured using receiver operator characteristics) to highlight why certain sampling strategies are more effective than others. Specifically, we apply our framework to an array of logistic regression models trained on landslide inventories collected at sub-regional scales over four terrains across the United States. Results show significant variations in predictor effects depending on the inventory used to train the models. The inconsistent predictor effects cause low accuracies when testing models on inventories outside the domain of the training data. Grouping test and training sets according to physiographic and ecological characteristics, which are thought to share similar triggering mechanisms, does not improve model accuracy. We also show that using limited landslide data distributed uniformly over the entire modeling domain is better than using dense but spatially isolated data to train a model for applications over large regions.

California, Kentucky, North Carolina, West Virgini↗
USGS2022

The influence of drying on the aeolian transport of river-sourced sand

Transgression and regression of water levels (stages) have impacted the evolution of aeolian landforms and sedimentary deposits throughout geologic history. We studied this phenomenon over a five-day period of reduced flow on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park, AZ, USA, in March 2021. These transient low flows exposed river-channel sand deposits to the air, causing progressive desiccation (drying) and thereby making these deposits susceptible to aeolian transport. We measured aeolian threshold friction velocities ( u *t ) for sand saltation and PM10 dust emissions, as well as other characteristics, on a subaerially exposed sandbar and downwind aeolian dunefield during each day of the low river flow. The sandbar transitioned from supply-limited to transport-limited aeolian sediment transport conditions during the regression in river water stage. A possible tipping point between the two transport conditions occurred approximately 48 hours after the drop in river flow. The empirically measured u *t decreased as the sandbar sediment dried with increased subaerial exposure time. Theoretical estimates and empirical measurements of u *t corresponded closely on the aeolian dunefield and on the sandbar when it was drier during the third and fourth day of the experiment. Eighty-seven percent of the variability in u *t was explained by empirical models that provide practical estimates of aeolian transport potential of subaerial river sediment deposits using monitoring data that are commonly available in this and other river systems. The work provides theoretical insight into the response of aeolian processes to sediment supply changes driven by periods of anthropogenic activity, drought, and climate change.

Arizona↗
USGS2023

Impacts of spontaneous waterfall development on bedrock river longitudinal profile morphology

River profiles are shaped by climatic and tectonic history, lithology, and internal feedbacks between flow hydraulics, sediment transport and erosion. In steep channels, waterfalls may self-form without changes in external forcing (i.e., autogenic formation) and erode at rates faster or slower than an equivalent channel without waterfalls. We use a 1-D numerical model to investigate how self-formed waterfalls alter the morphology of bedrock river longitudinal profiles. We modify the standard stream power model to include a slope threshold above which waterfalls spontaneously form and a rate constant allowing waterfalls to erode faster or slower than other fluvial processes. Using this model, we explore how waterfall formation alters both steady state and transient longitudinal profile forms. Our model predicts that fast waterfalls create km-scale reaches in a dynamic equilibrium with channel slope held approximately constant at the threshold slope for waterfall formation, while slow waterfalls can create local channel slope maxima at the location of slow waterfall development. Furthermore, slow waterfall profiles integrate past base level histories, leading to multiple possible profile forms, even at steady-state. Consistency between our model predictions and field observations of waterfall-rich rivers in the Kings and Kaweah drainages in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, supports the hypothesis that waterfall formation can modulate river profiles in nature. Our findings may help identify how bedrock channels are influenced by waterfall erosion and aid in distinguishing between signatures of external and internal perturbations, thereby strengthening our ability to interpret past climate and tectonic changes from river longitudinal profiles.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Earth Surface↗
USGS2023

Kinematic evolution of a large paraglacial landslide in the Barry Arm fjord of Alaska

Our warming climate is adversely affecting cryospheric landscapes via glacial retreat, permafrost degradation, and associated slope destabilization. In Prince William Sound, Alaska, the rapid retreat of Barry Glacier has destabilized the slopes flanking the glacier, resulting in numerous landslides. The largest of these landslides (∼500 Mm 3 in volume) is more than 2 km wide and has the potential to generate a tsunami that could affect nearby recreationists, marine traffic, infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and the community of Whittier, located 60 km from the landslide. Here, we combine landslide structural and kinematic element mapping with data acquired from bi-yearly airborne lidar, multi-week satellite-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR), sub-hourly ground-based SAR, and seismic monitoring from 2020 to 2022 to characterize this landslide and examine its evolution. While some methods serve as a snapshot in time that is a culmination of events, others emphasize the ever-evolving nature of the landslide and associated hazards. Four major kinematic elements define the overall structure of the landslide, which vary in deformation type and rate, from creep (5 mm per day over several months) to episodic movement (2 m in 30 days) and landslide-wide to localized events. In some areas of the landslide, short-term deformation deviates from structures formed by cumulative movement, implying structural and kinematic evolution associated with glacier retreat. These insights are important for assessing landslide hazards and hazard evolution for large, slow-moving bedrock landslides in actively deglaciating environments.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Tree-ring derived avalanche frequency and climate associations in a high-latitude, maritime climate

Snow avalanches are a natural hazard in mountainous areas worldwide with severe impacts that include fatalities, damage to infrastructure, disruption to commerce, and landscape disturbance. Understanding long-term avalanche frequency patterns, and associated climate and weather influences, improves our understanding of how climate change may affect avalanche activity. We used dendrochronological techniques to evaluate the historical frequency of large magnitude avalanches (LMAs) in the high-latitude climate of southeast Alaska, United States. We collected 434 cross sections throughout six avalanche paths near Juneau, Alaska. This resulted in 2706 identified avalanche growth disturbances between 1720 and 2018, which allowed us to reconstruct 82 years with LMA activity across three sub-regions. By combining this tree-ring-derived avalanche data set with a suite of climate and atmospheric variables and applying a generalized linear model to fit a binomial regression, we found that February and March precipitation and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) were significant predictors of LMA activity in the study area. Specifically, LMA activity occurred during winters with substantial February and March precipitation and neutral or negative (cold) ONI values, while years not characterized by LMAs occur more frequently during warm winters (positive ONI values). Our examination of the climate-avalanche relationship in southeast Alaska sheds light on important climate variables and physical processes associated with LMA years. These results can be used to inform long-term infrastructure planning and avalanche mitigation operations in an urban area, such as Juneau, where critical infrastructure is subject to substantial avalanche hazard.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Pockmarks offshore Big Sur, California provide evidence for recurrent, regional, and unconfined sediment gravity flows

Recent surface ship multibeam surveys of the Sur Pockmark Field, offshore Central California, reveal >5,000 pockmarks in an area that is slated to host a wind farm, between 500- and 1,500-m water depth. Extensive fieldwork was conducted to characterize the seafloor environment and its recent geologic history, including visual observations with remotely operated vehicles, sediment core sampling, and high-resolution, near-bottom Chirp and multibeam surveys collected with autonomous underwater vehicles to capture the morphology and stratigraphy of the pockmarks. No evidence of high methane concentrations in sediments, chemosynthetic biological communities, or methane-derived diagenetic byproducts was found. Chirp data and sediment cores showed alternating layers of slowly accumulating hemipelagic drapes interrupted by more reflective turbidite horizons that extend throughout the pockmark field and beyond. Chirp data showed multiple episodes of lateral migration over time in some of the pockmarks in association with erosion and infilling events. Laterally continuous turbidite horizons that overlay erosional surfaces indicated that pockmark migration occurred synchronously in multiple pockmarks separated by tens of kilometers. These shifts are presumed to be the result of asymmetrical erosion of the pockmark flanks caused by passing sediment gravity flows. While some pockmarks occur in chains, most are not clustered or randomly spaced but are regularly dispersed within the pockmark field. We hypothesize that intermittent, unconfined sediment gravity flows occurring over at least the last 280,000 years are the source of the regionally continuous turbidite deposits and the mechanism that maintained the regularly dispersed pockmarks.

California↗
USGS2024

Predicting characteristic length scales of barrier island segmentation in microtidal environments

Segmented barrier islands can be found in regions with small tidal ranges. In contrast to tidally dominated barriers, where inlet dynamics are thought to control island length scales, the controls on barrier island length scales in wave-dominated environments have not been quantified. These microtidal barriers typically have a curved shoreline, suggesting the influence of wave-driven alongshore sediment transport. Microtidal barriers are also typically hydrodynamically isolated from one another, as weak tidal flows limit interactions between adjoining barriers. To better understand the controls on and scales of barrier segmentation in the relative absence of tides, here we develop a theoretical framework to estimate the alongshore length scales at which a barrier will either breach or heal following a disturbance in the barrier morphology. The non-dimensional framework compares the timescales of overwash (advective) and alongshore sediment transport (diffusive) processes along barrier island chains. We then apply this framework to modern barrier islands in the microtidal Gulf of Mexico using wave hindcast data and the lengths, widths, heights, and lagoon depths measured from remotely sensed geospatial data and topobathymetric data. We find that most of these barriers are currently longer than their critical length scale, often as a result of coastal restoration efforts. Our critical length scale analysis suggests that most of the Gulf of Mexico barriers are vulnerable to segmentation despite coastal restoration efforts intended to protect fisheries and the mainland coasts.

Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi↗
USGS2024

Vortex trapping of suspended sand grains over ripples

Coastal hydrodynamics and morphodynamics integrate the effects of small-scale fluid-sediment interactions; yet, these small-scale processes are not well understood. To investigate sediment trapping by turbulent coherent structures or vortices, the transport of coarse sand over ripples was analyzed in a small-oscillatory flow tunnel with phase-separated Particle Image and Tracking Velocimetry. Results from one of the first direct measurements of vortex-trapped sand grains under oscillatory flows are presented. The vortices mobilized sand grains along the ripple slopes just prior to flow reversal and transported the suspended sediment grains. During several flow cycles, some sand grains were temporarily trapped in the vortex, prescribing semi-circular trajectories off-center from the vortex core in quadrants of the vortex that were closest to the ripple slope, as illustrated by Nielsen (1992, https://doi.org/10.1142/1269 ). Comparisons of the horizontal sediment grain velocity with the horizontal fluid velocity yielded a linear relationship with a slope of 0.87. The vertical grain velocities also varied linearly with the vertical fluid velocity with a slope of approximately 1 and an offset of −0.08 m s −1 . The offset is close to the still water settling velocity for coarse sand grains, as hypothesized during vortex trapping. Additionally, estimates of the off-center distance, between the centers of the semi-circular sediment paths and vortex cores, compared well with the ratio of the settling velocity to the radian frequency of the vortex yielding a linear regression slope of 0.99. Improved understanding of vortex trapping effects on sediment dynamics may decrease uncertainty in model predictions of large-scale coastal hydrodynamics and sediment transport.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗
USGS2024

Constraining mean landslide occurrence rates for non-temporal landslide inventories using high-resolution elevation data

Constraining landslide occurrence rates can help to generate landslide hazard models that predict the spatial and temporal occurrence of landslides. However, most landslide inventories do not include any temporal data due to the difficulties of dating landslide deposits. Here we introduce a method for estimating the mean landslide occurrence rate of deep-seated rotational and translational slides derived solely from high-resolution (≤3 m) elevation data and globally available estimates of the diffusion coefficient for sediment flux. The method applies a linear diffusion model to the roughest landslide deposits until they reach a representative non-landslide roughness distribution. This estimates the time for a landslide deposit to be unrecognizable in high-resolution digital elevation data, which we term the mean lifetime of the landslide. Using the mean lifetime and number of landslides within an area of interest, we can estimate the mean occurrence rate of landslides over that domain. We validate this approach using a comprehensive temporal inventory of landslides in western Oregon created using age-roughness curves that are calibrated with high-resolution elevation data and radiocarbon data. We find good agreement between our diffusion method and the existing age-roughness-derived estimates, producing mean lifetimes of 4500 and 5200 years (4% difference), respectively. Hazard maps produced using the two methodologies generally agree, with the maximum differences in landslide probability reaching 0.1. Due to the relative abundance of high-resolution elevation data compared with age-dated landslides, our method could help constrain landslide occurrence rates in areas previously considered unfeasible.

Oregon↗
USGS2024

Postfire sediment mobilization and its downstream implications across California, 1984 – 2021

Fire facilitates erosion through changes in vegetation and soil, with major postfire erosion commonly occurring even with moderate rainfall. As climate warms, the western United States (U.S.) is experiencing an intensifying fire regime and increasing frequency of extreme rain. We evaluated whether these hydroclimatic changes are evident in patterns of postfire erosion by modeling hillslope erosion following all wildfires larger than 100 km 2 in California from 1984 to 2021. Our results show that annual statewide postfire hillslope erosion has increased significantly over time. To supplement the hillslope erosion modeling, we compiled modeled and measured postfire debris-flow volumes. We find that, in northern California, more than 50% of fires triggering the top 20 values of sediment mass and sediment yield occurred in the most recent decade (between 2011 and 2021). In southern California, the postfire sediment budget was dominated by debris flows, which showed no temporal trend. Our analysis reveals that 57% of postfire sediment erosion statewide occurred upstream of reservoirs, indicating potential impacts to reservoir storage capacity and thus increased risk to water-resource security with ongoing climate change.

California↗
USGS2024

RegionGrow3D: A deterministic analysis for characterizing discrete three-dimensional landslide source areas on a regional scale

Regional-scale characterization of shallow landslide hazards is important for reducing their destructive impact on society. These hazards are commonly characterized by (a) their location and likelihood using susceptibility maps, (b) landslide size and frequency using geomorphic scaling laws, and (c) the magnitude of disturbance required to cause landslides using initiation thresholds. Typically, this is accomplished through the use of inventories documenting the locations and triggering conditions of previous landslides. In the absence of comprehensive landslide inventories, physics-based slope stability models can be used to estimate landslide initiation potential and provide plausible distributions of landslide characteristics for a range of environmental and forcing conditions. However, these models are sometimes limited in their ability to capture key mechanisms tied to discrete three-dimensional (3D) landslide mechanics while possessing the computational efficiency required for broad-scale application. In this study, the RegionGrow3D (RG3D) model is developed to broadly simulate the area, volume, and location of landslides on a regional scale (≥1,000 km 2 ) using 3D, limit-equilibrium (LE)-based slope stability modeling. Furthermore, RG3D is incorporated into a susceptibility framework that quantifies landsliding uncertainty using a distribution of soil shear strengths and their associated probabilities, back-calculated from inventoried landslides using 3D LE-based landslide forensics. This framework is used to evaluate the influence of uncertainty tied to shear strength, rainfall scenarios, and antecedent soil moisture on potential landsliding and rainfall thresholds over a large region of the Oregon Coast Range, USA.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗
USGS2025

Uncertainty reduction for subaerial landslide-tsunami hazards

Subaerial rock slopes may generate a tsunami by rapidly moving into the water. Large uncertainty in landslide characteristics propagates into large uncertainty in tsunami hazard, making hazard assessment more difficult for land and emergency managers. Once a potentially tsunamigenic landslide is identified, it may not be clear which landslide characteristics contribute most significantly to uncertainty in the tsunami hazard. Our aim is to document the relative worth of different landslide characteristics (e.g., size, material properties) for reducing uncertainty in landslide-tsunami hazard assessments. Isolating the relative importance of specific landslide characteristics may inform prioritization of data collection and improve efficiency in understanding hazard. To accomplish this, we generated a set of 288 landslide-tsunami simulations in which we systematically varied the size and material properties of possible failure extents at the Barry Arm landslide complex in northwestern Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA. We find that for landslides smaller than the receiving waterbody, the landslide volume has the strongest effect on resulting wave characteristics and thus the highest leverage on reducing uncertainty in tsunami hazard. In contrast, for landslides substantially larger than the waterbody, the duration of rapid movement of the landslide has the highest leverage. Based on our results, we propose a classification scheme for subaerial landslides based on the relative size of the landslide and waterbody. Additionally, our results support the generation of a tsunami height transfer function between existing tide gages and a nearby coastal city. These results have direct implications for the practice of operational early warning.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Reducing sampling uncertainty in aeolian research to improve change detection

Measurements of aeolian sediment transport support our understanding of mineral dust impacts on Earth and human systems and assessments of aeolian process sensitivities to global environmental change. However, sample design principles are often overlooked in aeolian research. Here, we use high‐density field measurements of sediment mass flux across land use and land cover types to examine sample size and power effects on detecting change in aeolian transport. Temporal variances were 1.6 to 10.1 times the magnitude of spatial variances in aeolian transport for six study sites. Differences in transport were detectable for >67% of comparisons among sites using ~27 samples. Failure to detect change with smaller sample sizes suggests that aeolian transport measurements and monitoring are much more uncertain than recognized. We show how small and selective sampling, common in aeolian research, gives the false impression that differences in aeolian transport can be detected, potentially undermining inferences about process and impacting reproducibility of aeolian research.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2007

Geochemical evidence for African dust inputs to soils of western Atlantic islands: Barbados, the Bahamas, and Florida

We studied soils on high-purity limestones of Quaternary age on the western Atlantic Ocean islands of Barbados, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas. Potential soil parent materials in this region, external to the carbonate substrate, include volcanic ash from the island of St. Vincent (near Barbados), volcanic ash from the islands of Dominica and St. Lucia (somewhat farther from Barbados), the fine-grained component of distal loess from the lower Mississippi River Valley, and wind-transported dust from Africa. These four parent materials can be differentiated using trace elements (Sc, Cr, Th, and Zr) and rare earth elements that have minimal mobility in the soil-forming environment. Barbados soils have compositions that indicate a complex derivation. Volcanic ash from the island of St. Vincent appears to have been the most important influence, but African dust is a significant contributor, and even Mississippi River valley loess may be a very minor contributor to Barbados soils. Soils on the Florida Keys and islands in the Bahamas appear to have developed mostly from African dust, but Mississippi River valley loess may be a significant contributor. Our results indicate that inputs of African dust are more important to the genesis of soils on islands in the western Atlantic Ocean than previously supposed. We hypothesize that African dust may also be a major contributor to soils on other islands of the Caribbean and to soils in northern South America, central America, Mexico, and the southeastern United States. Dust inputs to subtropical and tropical soils in this region increase both nutrient-holding capacity and nutrient status and thus may be critical in sustaining vegetation. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2014

Linking channel hydrology with riparian wetland accretion in tidal rivers

The hydrologic processes by which tide affects river channel and riparian morphology within the tidal freshwater zone are poorly understood, yet are fundamental to predicting the fate of coastal rivers and wetlands as sea level rises. We investigated patterns of sediment accretion in riparian wetlands along the non-tidal through oligohaline portion of two coastal plain rivers in Maryland, U.S.A., and how flow velocity, water level, and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in the channel may have contributed to those patterns. Sediment accretion was measured over a one year period using artificial marker horizons, channel hydrology was measured over a one month period using acoustic Doppler current profilers, and SSC was predicted from acoustic backscatter. Riparian sediment accretion was lowest at the non-tidal sites (mean and standard deviation = 8 ± 8 mm yr -1 ), highest at the upstream tidal freshwater forested wetlands (TFFW) (33 ± 28 mm yr -1 ), low at the midstream TFFW (12 ± 9 mm yr -1 ), and high at the oligohaline (fresh-to-brackish) marshes (19 ± 8 mm yr -1 ). Channel maximum flood and ebb velocity was 2-fold faster at the oligohaline than tidal freshwater zone on both tidal rivers, corresponding with the differences in in-channel SSC: the oligohaline zone's SSC was more than double the tidal freshwater zone's, and was greater than historical SSC at the non-tidal gages. The tidal wave characteristics differed between rivers, leading to significantly greater in-channel SSC during floodplain inundation in the weakly convergent than the strongly convergent tidal river. Overall sediment accretion was higher in the embayed river likely due to a single storm discharge and associated sedimentation.

Maryl↗
USGS2014

Modeling erosion of ice-rich permafrost bluffs along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast

The Arctic climate is changing, inducing accelerating retreat of ice-rich permafrost coastal bluffs. Along Alaska’s Beaufort Sea coast, erosion rates have increased roughly threefold from 6.8 to 19 m yr −1 since 1955 while the sea ice-free season has increased roughly twofold from 45 to 100 days since 1979. We develop a numerical model of bluff retreat to assess the relative roles of the length of sea ice-free season, sea level, water temperature, nearshore wavefield, and permafrost temperature in controlling erosion rates in this setting. The model captures the processes of erosion observed in short-term monitoring experiments along the Beaufort Sea coast, including evolution of melt notches, topple of ice wedge-bounded blocks, and degradation of these blocks. Model results agree with time-lapse imagery of bluff evolution and time series of ocean-based instrumentation. Erosion is highly episodic with 40% of erosion is accomplished during less than 5% of the sea ice-free season. Among the formulations of the submarine erosion rate we assessed, we advocate those that employ both water temperature and nearshore wavefield. As high water levels are a prerequisite for erosion, any future changes that increase the frequency with which water levels exceed the base of the bluffs will increase rates of coastal erosion. The certain increases in sea level and potential changes in storminess will both contribute to this effect. As water temperature also influences erosion rates, any further expansion of the sea ice-free season into the midsummer period of greatest insolation is likely to result in an additional increase in coastal retreat rates.

Alaska↗
USGS2014

Seismicity within a propagating ice shelf rift: the relationship between icequake locations and ice shelf structure

Iceberg calving is a dominant mass loss mechanism for Antarctic ice shelves, second only to basal melting. An important known process involved in calving is the initiation and propagation of through-penetrating fractures called rifts; however, the mechanisms controlling rift propagation remain poorly understood. To investigate the mechanics of ice-shelf rifting, we analyzed seismicity associated with a propagating rift tip on the Amery Ice Shelf, using data collected during the Austral summers of 2004-2007. We investigated seismicity associated with fracture propagation using a suite of passive seismological techniques including icequake locations, back projection, and moment tensor inversion. We confirm previous results that show that seismicity is characterized by periods of relative quiescence punctuated by swarms of intense seismicity of one to three hours. However, even during periods of quiescence, we find significant seismic deformation around the rift tip. Moment tensors, calculated for a subset of the largest icequakes (M W > -2.0) located near the rift tip, show steeply dipping fault planes, horizontal or shallowly plunging stress orientations, and often have a significant volumetric component. They also reveal that much of the observed seismicity is limited to the upper 50 m of the ice shelf. This suggests a complex system of deformation that involves the propagating rift, the region behind the rift tip, and a system of rift-transverse crevasses. Small-scale variations in the mechanical structure of the ice shelf, especially rift-transverse crevasses and accreted marine ice, play an important role in modulating the rate and location of seismicity associated with propagating ice shelf rifts.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2014

Predictions of barrier island berm evolution in a time-varying storm climatology

Low-lying barrier islands are ubiquitous features of the world's coastlines, and the processes responsible for their formation, maintenance, and destruction are related to the evolution of smaller, superimposed features including sand dunes, beach berms, and sandbars. The barrier island and its superimposed features interact with oceanographic forces (e.g., overwash) and exchange sediment with each other and other parts of the barrier island system. These interactions are modulated by changes in storminess. An opportunity to study these interactions resulted from the placement and subsequent evolution of a 2 m high sand berm constructed along the northern Chandeleur Islands, LA. We show that observed berm length evolution is well predicted by a model that was fit to the observations by estimating two parameters describing the rate of berm length change. The model evaluates the probability and duration of berm overwash to predict episodic berm erosion. A constant berm length change rate is also predicted that persists even when there is no overwash. The analysis is extended to a 16 year time series that includes both intraannual and interannual variability of overwash events. This analysis predicts that as many as 10 or as few as 1 day of overwash conditions would be expected each year. And an increase in berm elevation from 2 m to 3.5 m above mean sea level would reduce the expected frequency of overwash events from 4 to just 0.5 event-days per year. This approach can be applied to understanding barrier island and berm evolution at other locations using past and future storm climatologies.

Louisiana↗