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USGS2016

Waterbird nest-site selection is influenced by neighboring nests and island topography

Avian nest-site selection is influenced by factors operating across multiple spatial scales. Identifying preferred physical characteristics (e.g., topography, vegetation structure) can inform managers to improve nesting habitat suitability. However, social factors (e.g., attraction, territoriality, competition) can complicate understanding physical characteristics preferred by nesting birds. We simultaneously evaluated the physical characteristics and social factors influencing selection of island nest sites by colonial-nesting American avocets ( Recurvirostra americana ) and Forster's terns ( Sterna forsteri ) at 2 spatial scales in San Francisco Bay, 2011–2012. At the larger island plot (1 m 2 ) scale, we used real-time kinematics to produce detailed topographies of nesting islands and map the distribution of nests. Nesting probability was greatest in island plots between 0.5 m and 1.5 m above the water surface, at distances <10 m from the water's edge, and of moderately steep (avocets) or flat (terns) slopes. Further, avocet and tern nesting probability increased as the number of nests initiated in adjacent plots increased up to a peak of 11–12 tern nests, and then decreased thereafter. Yet, avocets were less likely to nest in plots adjacent to plots with nesting avocets, suggesting an influence of intra-specific territoriality. At the smaller microhabitat scale, or the area immediately surrounding the nest, we compared topography, vegetation, and distance to nearest nest between nest sites and paired random sites. Topography had little influence on selection of the nest microhabitat. Instead, nest sites were more likely to have vegetation present, and greater cover, than random sites. Finally, avocet, and to a lesser extent tern, nest sites were closer to other active conspecific or heterospecific nests than random sites, indicating that social attraction played a role in selection of nest microhabitat. Our results demonstrate key differences in nest-site selection between co-occurring avocets and terns, and indicate the effects of physical characteristics and social factors on selection of nesting habitat are dependent on the spatial scale examined. Moreover, these results indicate that islands with abundant area between 0.5 m and 1.5 m above the water surface, within 10 m of the water's edge, and containing a mosaic of slopes ranging from flat to moderately steep would provide preferred nesting habitat for avocets and terns. © 2016 The Wildlife Society.

California↗

USGS2025

Bait trapping of waterfowl increases the environmental contamination of avian influenza virus (AIV)

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4b has circulated in North America since late 2021, resulting in higher rates of morbidity and mortality in wild birds than observed in this region before. The objective of this study was to determine whether baiting, which is widely conducted in Canada and the United States as part of waterfowl management practices (e.g., duck banding), influences the occurrence of avian influenza virus (AIV) in wetlands. We used a quasi-experimental design, collecting superficial sediment samples ( n = 336) and fecal samples ( n = 242) from paired baited (treatment) and non-baited (control) sites at 2 wetlands in Saskatchewan, Canada, between August and September 2022. We visited sampling sites 3 times during the sampling period: prior to the commencement of baiting activities ( t0 ), approximately 14 days after t0 ( t1 ), and 24 days after t0 ( t2 ). We screened samples for AIV using real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) targeting the matrix gene and subjected the PCR-positive samples to next-generation sequencing. We used a mixed-effects logistic regression model to estimate the effect of baiting on the odds of AIV positivity in sediment samples, while controlling for clustering by wetland. At control sites, we did not detect evidence for a difference in the odds of AIV detection in sediment at t1 or t2 versus t0 ; however, at baited sites, the odds of AIV detection at t1 were 5.43 (95% CI = 1.99, 14.79) times the odds at t0 and at t2 the odds of AIV detection were 8.73 (95% CI = 3.29, 23.18) times the odds at t0 . We detected HPAIV clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 in sediment at 1 treatment site following baiting. There was also a trend towards increased fecal AIV positivity and increased fecal and sediment AIV diversity in baited versus non-baited sites; however, there was insufficient power to determine if these findings were statistically significant. Overall, our results indicate that baiting is associated with localized increases in AIV environmental contamination, with baiting potentially creating concentrated areas of AIV accumulation. As such, wetland baiting activities may pose a risk to wildlife population health through the propagation of AIV in wetlands and the waterfowl using those environments and efforts to replace, refine, or reduce this activity may be warranted depending on local ecosystem contexts and cost-benefit analyses.

Saskatchewan↗

USGS2003

Use of North American Breeding Bird Survey data to estimate population change for bird conservation regions

Conservation planning requires information at a variety of geographic scales, and it is often unclear whether surveys designed for other purposes will provide appropriate information for management at various scales. We evaluated the use of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to meet information needs for conservation planning in Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs). The BBS originally was developed to provide regional estimates for states, provinces, physiographic regions, and larger areas. Many analyses have used physiographic regions within states/provinces as strata. We evaluated potential consequences of using BCRs instead of the BBS physiographic regions, testing for spatial differences in sample intensity within states and provinces. We reclassified the BBS survey routes to BCRs and conducted route regression trend (interval-specific population change) analyses for a variety of regions and time intervals. Our results were similar to those based on traditional BBS regions and suggest minimal consequences of the reclassification for the BBS sample. We summarized population change within BCRs and assessed the efficiency of the BBS in estimating population change for 421 species surveyed. As would be expected from an omnibus survey, many species appeared to be poorly monitored by the BBS, with 42% of species encountered at <1 bird per route from the survey, and 28% of trend estimates too imprecise to detect a 3% per year change over 35 years. Our results indicated that the quality of the survey for estimation of population change varied among BCRs. Population trends of species were heterogeneous over space and time, varying among BCRs for 76% of species and over time for 39% of species. Regional heterogeneity also existed in trends of species groups from the BBS. While 49% of all species in the survey had increasing populations, grassland breeding birds showed consistent declines, with only 18% of species having positive trend estimates. Bird Conservation Regions appear to provide reasonable strata for summary of BBS data.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2011

Seasonal variation in nutritional characteristics of the diet of greater white-fronted geese

We studied diet and habitat use of greater white-fronted geese ( Anser albifrons ) from autumn through spring on their primary staging and wintering areas in the Pacific Flyway, 1979–1982. There have been few previous studies of resource use and forage quality of wintering greater white-fronted geese in North America, and as a consequence there has been little empirical support for management practices pertaining to habitat conservation of this broadly distributed species. Observations of >2,500 flocks of geese and collections of foraging birds revealed seasonal and geographic variation in resource use reflective of changes in habitat availability, selection, and fluctuating physiological demands. Autumn migrants from Alaska arrived first in the Klamath Basin of California and southern Oregon, where they fed on barley, oats, wheat, and potatoes. Geese migrated from the Klamath Basin into the Central Valley of California in late autumn where they exploited agricultural crops rich in soluble carbohydrates, with geese in the Sacramento Valley feeding almost exclusively on rice and birds on the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta primarily utilizing corn. White-fronted geese began their northward migration in late winter, and by early spring most had returned to the Klamath Basin where 37% of flocks were found in fields of new growth cultivated and wild grasses. Cereal grains and potatoes ingested by geese were low in protein (7–14%) and high in soluble nutrients (17–47% neutral detergent fiber [NDF]), whereas grasses were low in available energy (47–49% NDF) but high in protein (26–42%). Greater white-fronted geese are generalist herbivores and can exploit a variety of carbohydrate-rich cultivated crops, likely making these geese less susceptible to winter food shortages than prior to the agriculturalization of the North American landscape. However, agricultural landscapes can be extremely dynamic and may be less predictable in the long-term than the historic environments to which geese are adapted. Thus far greater white-fronted geese have proved resilient to changes in land cover in the Pacific Flyway and by altering their migration regime have even been able to adapt to changes in the availability of suitable forage crops.

Pacific Flyway↗

USGS2016

Increased body mass of ducks wintering in California's Central Valley

Waterfowl managers lack the information needed to fully evaluate the biological effects of their habitat conservation programs. We studied body condition of dabbling ducks shot by hunters at public hunting areas throughout the Central Valley of California during 2006–2008 compared with condition of ducks from 1979 to 1993. These time periods coincide with habitat increases due to Central Valley Joint Venture conservation programs and changing agricultural practices; we modeled to ascertain whether body condition differed among waterfowl during these periods. Three dataset comparisons indicate that dabbling duck body mass was greater in 2006–2008 than earlier years and the increase was greater in the Sacramento Valley and Suisun Marsh than in the San Joaquin Valley, differed among species (mallard [ Anas platyrhynchos ], northern pintail [ Anas acuta ], America wigeon [ Anas americana ], green-winged teal [ Anas crecca ], and northern shoveler [ Anas clypeata ]), and was greater in ducks harvested late in the season. Change in body mass also varied by age–sex cohort and month for all 5 species and by September–January rainfall for all except green-winged teal. The random effect of year nested in period, and sometimes interacting with other factors, improved models in many cases. Results indicate that improved habitat conditions in the Central Valley have resulted in increased winter body mass of dabbling ducks, especially those that feed primarily on seeds, and this increase was greater in regions where area of post-harvest flooding of rice and other crops, and wetland area, has increased. Conservation programs that continue to promote post-harvest flooding and other agricultural practices that benefit wintering waterfowl and continue to restore and conserve wetlands would likely help maintain body condition of wintering dabbling ducks in the Central Valley of California.

California↗

USGS2011

Ducks and passerines nesting in northern mixed-grass prairie treated with fire

Prescribed fire is an important, ecology-driven tool for restoration of grassland systems. However, prescribed fire remains controversial for some grassland managers because of reported reductions in bird use of recently burned grasslands. Few studies have evaluated effects of fire on grassland bird populations in the northern mixed-grass prairie region. Fewer studies yet have examined the influence of fire on nest density or survival. In our review, we found no studies that simultaneously examined effects of fire on duck and passerine nesting. During 1998—2003, we examined effects of prescribed fire on the density of upland-nesting ducks and passerines nesting in north-central North Dakota, USA. Apparent nest densities of gadwall ( Anas strepera ), mallard ( A. platyrhynchos ), and all duck species combined, were influenced by fire history of study units, although the degree of influence was not compelling. Fire history was not related to nest densities of blue-winged teal ( A. discors ), northern shoveler ( A. clypeata ), or northern pintail ( A. acuta ); however, apparent nest densities in relation to the number of postfire growing seasons exhibited a strikingly similar pattern among all duck species. When compared to ducks, fire history strongly influenced apparent nest densities of clay-colored sparrow ( Spizella pallida ), Savannah sparrow ( Passerculus sandwichensis ), and bobolink ( Dolichonyx oryzivorus ). For most species examined, apparent nest densities were lowest in recently burned units, increased during the second postfire growing season, and stabilized or, in some cases, decreased thereafter. Prescribed fire is critical for restoring the ecology of northern mixed-grass prairies and our findings indicate that reductions in nest densities are limited mostly to the first growing season after fire. Our results support the premise that upland-nesting ducks and several grassland passerine species are adapted to periodic fires occurring at a frequency similar to that of pre-Euro-American settlement of the region.

North Dakota↗

USGS2023

Examining dynamic occupancy of gray wolves in Idaho after a decade of managed harvest

Gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) were reintroduced to Idaho, USA, in 1995–1996. The removal of Endangered Species Act protections in 2011 transferred wolf management to the state where wolves were subsequently classified as a harvested (i.e., hunted, trapped) big game species. We implemented a camera-based survey across Idaho from 2016–2021 as part of a population monitoring program. We used the resulting camera images in multi-year, dynamic and single-season occupancy models to examine potential changes in the asymptotic proportion of area occupied by wolves and assess the effect of cumulative wolf harvest from 2016–2021 on occupancy in the last year of the study, 2021. We also wanted to understand how habitat, prey, humans, harvest, livestock, and prey-related wolf removals affected wolf occupancy through their effects on colonization and extinction of occupancy cells through time. Statewide wolf occupancy did not change appreciably over the course of our study, with the proportion of survey cells occupied at an estimated high of 0.44 ± 0.03 (SE) in 2018 and a low of 0.39 ± 0.03 in 2020. Wolf colonization (i.e., probability that a cell switched from unoccupied to occupied between years) was positively associated with forest cover, images of humans, and the percent of neighboring cells that were occupied. Cell extinction (i.e., probability of switching from occupied to unoccupied between years) was negatively associated with neighboring cell occupancy. There were non-linear relationships between wolf harvest, colonization, and extinction. The single-season occupancy model demonstrated a positive relationship between harvest and occupancy at low to moderate levels of harvest (10–30%), but there was also evidence that high levels of harvest (>30%) reduce occupancy. Our results indicate that although harvest might influence wolf occupancy at local scales, wolf occupancy remained relatively constant across the state and wolves remained well distributed across Idaho during the study.

Idaho↗

USGS2010

Habitat selection of Rocky Mountain elk in a nonforested environment

Recent expansions by Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) into nonforested habitats across the Intermountain West have required managers to reconsider the traditional paradigms of forage and cover as they relate to managing elk and their habitats. We examined seasonal habitat selection patterns of a hunted elk population in a nonforested high-desert region of southwestern Wyoming, USA. We used 35,246 global positioning system locations collected from 33 adult female elk to model probability of use as a function of 6 habitat variables: slope, aspect, elevation, habitat diversity, distance to shrub cover, and distance to road. We developed resource selection probability functions for individual elk, and then we averaged the coefficients to estimate population-level models for summer and winter periods. We used the population-level models to generate predictive maps by assigning pixels across the study area to 1 of 4 use categories (i.e., high, medium-high, medium-low, or low), based on quartiles of the predictions. Model coefficients and predictive maps indicated that elk selected for summer habitats characterized by higher elevations in areas of high vegetative diversity, close to shrub cover, northerly aspects, moderate slopes, and away from roads. Winter habitat selection patterns were similar, except elk shifted to areas with lower elevations and southerly aspects. We validated predictive maps by using 528 locations collected from an independent sample of radiomarked elk (n = 55) and calculating the proportion of locations that occurred in each of the 4 use categories. Together, the high- and medium-high use categories of the summer and winter predictive maps contained 92% and 74% of summer and winter elk locations, respectively. Our population-level models and associated predictive maps were successful in predicting winter and summer habitat use by elk in a nonforested environment. In the absence of forest cover, elk seemed to rely on a combination of shrubs, topography, and low human disturbance to meet their thermal and hiding cover requirements.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2017

Contrasting nest survival patterns for ducks and songbirds in northern mixed-grass prairie

Management actions intended to protect or improve habitat for ducks may benefit grassland-nesting passerines, but scant information is available to explore this assumption. During 1998–2003, we examined nest survival of ducks and songbirds to determine whether effects of prescribed fire and other habitat features (e.g., shrub cover and distance to habitat edges) were similar for ducks and passerines breeding in North Dakota. We used the logistic-exposure method to estimate survival of duck and songbird nests ( n = 3,171). We used an information-theoretic approach to identify factors that most influenced nest survival. Patterns of nest survival were markedly different between taxonomic groups. For ducks, nest survival was greater during the first postfire nesting season (daily survival rate [DSR] = 0.957, 85% CI = 0.951–0.963), relative to later postfire nesting seasons (DSR = 0.946, 85% CI = 0.942–0.950). Furthermore duck nest survival and nest densities were inversely related. Duck nest survival also was greater as shrub cover decreased and as distance from cropland and wetland edges increased. Passerines had lower nest survival during the first postfire nesting season (DSR = 0.934, 85% CI = 0.924–0.944), when densities also were low compared to subsequent postfire nesting seasons (DSR = 0.947, 85% CI = 0.944–0.950). Parasitism by brown-headed cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ) reduced passerine nest survival and this effect was more pronounced during the first postfire nesting season compared to subsequent nesting seasons. Passerine nest survival was greater as shrub cover decreased and perhaps for more concealed nests. Duck and songbird nest survival rates were not correlated during this study and for associated studies that examined additional variables using the same dataset, suggesting that different mechanisms influenced their survival. Based on our results, ducks should not be considered direct surrogates for passerines when predicting effects of prescribed fire, shrub cover, and habitat edges on nest survival.

North Dakota↗

USGS2004

Goals and strategies for estimating trends in landbird abundance

Reliable estimates of trends in population size are critical to effective management of landbirds. We propose a standard for considering that landbird populations are adequately monitored: 80% power to detect a 50% decline occuning within 20 years, using a 2-tailed test and a significance level of 0.10, and incorporating effects of potential bias. Our standard also requires that at least two-thirds of the target region be covered by the monitoring program. We recommend that the standard be achieved for species' entire ranges or for any area one-third the size of the temperate portions of Canada and the United States, whichever is smaller. We applied our approach to North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. At present, potential annual bias for the BBS is estimated at ??0.008. Further, the BBS achieves the monitoring standard for only about 42% of landbirds for which the BBS is considered the most effective monitoring approach. Achieving the proposed monitoring target for ???80% of these species would require increasing the number of BBS - or similar survey - routes by several-fold, a goal that probably is impractical. We suggest several methods for reducing potential bias and argue that if our methods are implemented, potential bias would fall to ??0.003. The required number of BBS or similar routes would then be 5,106, about 40% more than in the current BBS program. Most of the needed increases are in 15 states or provinces. Developing a comprehensive land-bird monitoring program will require increased support for coordination of the BBS (currently 2 people) and new programs for species that are poorly covered at present. Our results provide a quantitative goal for long-term land-bird monitoring and identify the sample sizes needed, within each state and province, to achieve the monitoring goal for most of the roughly 300 landbird species that are well suited to monitoring with the BBS and similar surveys.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2021

Brown treesnake mortality after aerial application of toxic baits

Quantitative evaluation of control tools for managing invasive species is necessary to assess overall effectiveness and individual variation in treatment susceptibility. Invasive brown treesnakes ( Boiga irregularis ) on Guam have caused severe ecological and economic effects, pose a risk of accidental introduction to other islands, and are the greatest impediment to the reestablishment of extirpated native fauna. An aerial delivery system for rodent-based toxic baits can reduce brown treesnake abundance and heterogeneity among individuals may influence bait attraction or toxicant susceptibility. Previous baiting trials have either been simulated aerial treatments or relied on slightly different bait capsule compositions and the results of aerial delivery of toxic baits under operational conditions may not be directly comparable. We monitored 30 radio-tagged adult snakes (990–1,265 mm snout-vent length) during an aerial baiting operation in a 55-ha area using transmitters equipped with accelerometers and receivers programed to display a status code indicating mortality if a snake failed to move for >24 hours. We used known-fate models to estimate mortality and evaluate a priori hypotheses explaining differences in mortality based on size, sex, and treatment effects. Eleven radio-tagged snakes died in the aerial baiting treatment period (0.37, 95% CI = 0.21–0.55) and no individuals (0.00, 95% CI = 0.00–0.04) died during the non-treatment period. Our data provide strong evidence for an additive size-based treatment effect on mortality, with smaller adults (0.59, 95% CI = 0.35–0.80) exhibiting higher mortality than larger snakes (0.14, 95% CI = 0.02–0.37) but did not support a sex effect on mortality. The high mortality of snakes during the treatment period indicates that aerial baiting can reduce brown treesnake abundance, but further refinement or use in combination with other removal tools may be necessary to overcome size-based differences in susceptibility and achieve eradication.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2019

Trends and carrying capacity of sea otters in Southeast Alaska

Sea otter populations in Southeast Alaska (SEAK) have increased dramatically from fewer than 500 translocated animals in the late 1960s. The recovery of sea otters to ecosystems from which they had been absent has affected coastal food webs, including commercially important fisheries, and thus information on expected growth and equilibrium abundances can help inform resource management. We compile available survey data for SEAK and fit a Bayesian state-space model to estimate past trends and current abundance. Our model improves upon previous analyses by partitioning and quantifying sources of estimation error, accounting for over-dispersion of aerial count data, and providing realistic measurements of uncertainty around point estimates of abundance at multiple spatial scales. We also provide the first estimates of carrying capacity (K) for SEAK, at both regional and sub-regional scales, and analyze growth rates, current population status and expected future trends. At the regional scale, the population increased from 13,221 otters in 2003 (95% credible interval 9,990 – 16,828) to 25,584 otters in 2011 (CI95 18,739 – 33,163). The average annual growth rate in southern SEAK (7.8%) was higher than northern SEAK (2.7%); however, growth varied at the sub-regional scale and there was a negative relationship between growth rates and the number of years sea otters were present in an area. Local populations vary in terms of current densities and expected future growth: the mean estimated density at K was 4.2 (1.58) sea otters per km2 of habitat (defined as the sub-tidal benthos between 0-40m depth) and current densities correspond on average to 50% of projected equilibrium values (range = 1% to 97%) with the earliest-colonized sub-regions tending to be closer to K. Assuming a similar range of equilibrium densities for currently un-occupied habitats in SEAK, the projected value of K for all of SEAK is 74,650 sea otters (CI95 =36,778–136,506). Future analyses can improve upon the precision of K estimates by employing more frequent surveys at index sites and incorporating environmental covariates into the process model to generate habitat-specific estimates of equilibrium density.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Experimental evaluation of predator exclosures on nest, chick, and adult survival of piping plovers

Species of conservation concern often receive intensive management to improve vital rates and facilitate recovery. Piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) are federally listed in the United States and concerns over nest depredation have prompted widespread use of plover-permeable predator exclosures placed around nests (0.5–2-m radius). While effectiveness of exclosures for improving nest survival has been demonstrated, concerns remain about decreased chick survival (through predator cueing or density-dependent processes) or increased vulnerability of adults to predation (ambush as adult leaves exclosure). Either one of these concerns could demographically outweigh the benefits of increased nest survival. During 2014–2016, we conducted an experiment designed to evaluate survival of uniquely identified nests ( n = 418), chicks ( n = 453), and adults ( n = 367) at wetlands across the Northern Great Plains, USA. We assigned wetlands ( n 2014 = 26, n 2015 = 28, n 2016 = 25) into 2 groups: wetlands in which half of the nests received exclosures and wetlands in which none of the nests received exclosures. Exclosed nests had greater cumulative survival (0.73 [85% CI = 0.70–0.77]) than unexclosed nests at treatment wetlands (0.58 [0.54–0.62]) or unexclosed nests at control wetlands (0.52 [0.49–0.56]). Survival to fledging was highest for chicks hatched from exclosed nests (0.51 [0.47–0.56]), and similar between chicks hatched from unexclosed nests at treatment (0.34 [0.30–0.39]) and control (0.37 [0.32–0.42]) wetlands. Cumulative survival of adults during incubation varied by exclosure status, but adults associated with exclosed nests (0.90 [0.88–0.93]) and unexclosed nests at treatment wetlands (0.89 [0.86–0.92]) had greater survival than those associated with unexclosed nests at control wetlands (0.75 [0.64–0.84]). Adult annual survival rates varied by year (0.79–0.95) but not by exclosure status. The positive influence of exclosures on nest survival was not offset by a reduction in chick or adult survival, indicating that exclosures are a viable tool for piping plover conservation.

Montana, North Dakota↗

USGS2021

Using fecal DNA and closed-capture models to estimate feral horse population size

Accurate population estimates provide the foundation for managing feral horses ( Equus caballus ferus ) across the western United States. Certain feral horse populations are protected by the Wild and Free-Roaming Horses and Burros Act of 1971 and managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) or the United States Forest Service on designated herd management areas (HMAs) or wild horse territories, respectively. Horses are managed to achieve an appropriate management level (AML), which represents the number of horses determined by BLM to contribute to a thriving natural ecological balance and avoid deterioration of the range. To achieve AML for each HMA, BLM resource managers need accurate and precise population estimates. We tested the use of non-invasive fecal samples in a genetic capture-recapture framework to estimate population size in a closed horse population at the Little Book Cliffs HMA, Colorado, USA, with a known size of 153 individuals. We collected 1,957 samples over 3 independent sampling periods in 2014 and amplified them at 8 microsatellite loci. We applied mark-recapture models to determine population size using 954 samples that amplified at all 8 loci. We subsampled and reanalyzed our dataset to simulate different data collection protocols and evaluated effects on accuracy and precision of estimates using N-mixture modeling, full likelihood closed-capture modeling, and capwire single-occasion modeling that used data from all 3 sampling periods. Our model results were accurate and precise for analyses that used data from all 3 occasions; however, capwire single-occasion modeling was not accurate when we analyzed each sampling period separately. For all subsampling analysis scenarios, reducing sample size decreased precision, whether by reducing number of field staff, field days, or geographic areas surveyed on each period. Reducing spatial coverage of the survey area did not result in accurate population estimates and only marginally lowered the number of samples that would need to be collected to maintain accuracy. Because laboratory analysis contributes the greatest expense for this method ($80 U.S./sample), reducing fecal sample size is advantageous. Our results demonstrate that non-invasive sampling combined with good survey design and careful genetic and capture-recapture analyses can provide an alternative method to estimate the number of feral horses in a closed population. This method may be especially appropriate in situations where aerial inventories are not practical or accurate because of low sighting conditions. But the higher costs associated with laboratory sample analyses may reduce the method's feasibility compared to helicopter surveys.

Colorado↗

USGS2015

An empirical evaluation of landscape energetic models: Mallard and American black duck space use during the non-breeding period

Bird conservation Joint Ventures are collaborative partnerships between public agencies and private organizations that facilitate habitat management to support waterfowl and other bird populations. A subset of Joint Ventures has developed energetic carrying capacity models (ECCs) to translate regional waterfowl population goals into habitat objectives during the non-breeding period. Energetic carrying capacity models consider food biomass, metabolism, and available habitat to estimate waterfowl carrying capacity within an area. To evaluate Joint Venture ECCs in the context of waterfowl space use, we monitored 33 female mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and 55 female American black ducks ( A. rubripes ) using global positioning system satellite telemetry in the central and eastern United States. To quantify space use, we measured first-passage time (FPT: time required for an individual to transit across a circle of a given radius) at biologically relevant spatial scales for mallards (3.46 km) and American black ducks (2.30 km) during the non-breeding period, which included autumn migration, winter, and spring migration. We developed a series of models to predict FPT using Joint Venture ECCs and compared them to a biological null model that quantified habitat composition and a statistical null model, which included intercept and random terms. Energetic carrying capacity models predicted mallard space use more efficiently during autumn and spring migrations, but the statistical null was the top model for winter. For American black ducks, ECCs did not improve predictions of space use; the biological null was top ranked for winter and the statistical null was top ranked for spring migration. Thus, ECCs provided limited insight into predicting waterfowl space use during the non-breeding season. Refined estimates of spatial and temporal variation in food abundance, habitat conditions, and anthropogenic disturbance will likely improve ECCs and benefit conservation planners in linking non-breeding waterfowl habitat objectives with distribution and population parameters. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Arkansas, Delaware, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jerse↗

USGS2016

Environmental factors influence lesser scaup migration chronology and population monitoring

Identifying environmental metrics specific to lesser scaup ( Aythya affinis ; scaup) spring migration chronology may help inform development of conservation, management and population monitoring. Our objective was to determine how environmental conditions influence spring migration of lesser scaup to assess the effectiveness of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey in accurately estimating scaup populations. We first compared peak timing of mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and scaup migration from weekly ground surveys in North Dakota, USA because the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey is designed to capture annual mallard migration. As predicted, we detected that peak timing of scaup and mallard migrations differed in 25 of 36 years investigated (1980–2010). We marked scaup with satellite transmitters ( n = 78; 7,403 locations) at Long Point, Lake Erie, Ontario, Canada; Pool 19 of the Mississippi River, Iowa and Illinois, USA; and Presque Isle Bay, Lake Erie, Pennsylvania, USA. We tested the assumption that our marked scaup were representative of the continental population using the traditional survey area by comparing timing of migration of marked birds and scaup counted in the North Dakota Game and Fish Department survey. We detected a strong positive correlation between marked scaup and the survey data, which indicated that marked scaup were representative of the population. We subsequently used our validated sample of marked scaup to investigate the effects of annual variation in temperature, precipitation, and ice cover on spring migration chronology in the traditional and eastern survey areas of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey, 2005–2010. We evaluated competing environmental models to explain variation in timing and rate of scaup migration at large-scale and local levels. Spring migration of scaup occurred earlier and faster during springs with warmer temperatures and greater precipitation, variables known to influence energy budgets and wetland availability. Our results suggest that surveys designed to index abundance of breeding mallards is imprecise for estimating scaup abundance, and inaccurate at estimating breeding population size by survey stratum.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2018

Incorporating detection probability to estimate pheasant density

ndices of abundance, such as point counts, commonly are used to monitor trends in bird populations. In some circumstances, however, an index of abundance provides insufficient information for making management decisions and accurate density estimates are necessary. Wild ring-necked pheasants ( Phasianus colchicus ) were translocated to 10 study areas in Pennsylvania from 2007 to 2014 with the goal of establishing female densities of 3.86 pheasants/km 2 . We developed a population density estimator that used 3-minute crowing counts adjusted for probability of detection to estimate male pheasant density and flushing surveys to estimate the female:male ratio. To account for detection probability, we estimated the probability a pheasant was available to be detected by monitoring crowing frequency of male pheasants fitted with radio-transmitters and the probability an observer was able to detect a crowing pheasant at distances from 0 to 0.93 km. We found the probability a pheasant crowed during 3 minutes decreased linearly over our survey period from 0.66 in mid-April to 0.46 by the end of May. At the farthest distance we were able to accurately detect a crowing pheasant. We estimated the probability of detecting a pheasant at 0.80 km to be 0.019 ± 0.005 (SE), which means that we could not assume any fixed distance beyond which crowing birds could not be detected. Therefore, we replaced the probability of detection in the standard distance sampling estimator with the effective area of detection. The estimation of the effective area of detection is robust to choice of radius of the point and did not require observers to estimate the distance to crowing pheasants. We estimated the female:male ratio to be 1.02:1, despite the ratio of released pheasants being 4.46:1. Only 1 study area achieved the female density goal ( = 4.16); the maximum density at all other study areas was <2 females/km 2 . The estimator we developed incorporated multiple detection probabilities to provide density estimates and simplified the crowing count protocol by eliminating the need for observers to estimate their distance from a detected bird, which makes the estimator useful for estimation of population abundance when explicit population density objectives must be evaluated.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2005

Impact of special early harvest seasons on subarctic-nesting and temperate-nesting Canada geese

Dramatic changes in wintering distributions of Canada geese ( Branta canadensis ) have occurred over the past 50 years in eastern North America. Declines in numbers of subarctic-nesting geese wintering in southern states, and increases in numbers wintering in northern regions, have resulted in a northern shift in winter distributions. In contrast, numbers of temperate-nesting geese have increased throughout eastern North America. Management efforts to control overabundant temperate-nesting flocks have included the establishment of special early harvest seasons in September. However, the effect of early seasons on survival and harvest of subarctic-nesting populations has not been documented. Understanding the timing of migration movements and the fidelity of subarctic-nesting flocks to terminal winter refuges in the Southeast also is necessary to design early harvest seasons that target temperate-nesting flocks and protect subarctic-nesting populations. We used recoveries of marked geese to estimate survival and harvest rates before and after implementation of early harvest seasons within the Mississippi Flyway during 1976–1999. In addition, we used observations of neck-banded geese from the Southern James Bay Population (SJBP) to evaluate the hypothesis that subarctic-nesting geese arriving prior to mid-December on several key terminal winter refuges in the Southeast (early arriving migrants) were more likely to return to those refuges in subsequent years than were migrants arriving after mid-December (late arriving migrants). September seasons during 1987–1994 were a minor source of mortality for subarctic-nesting populations and accounted for <10% of their annual harvest mortality. The effectiveness of early seasons for increasing mortality of temperate-nesting flocks varied among the states we examined and was tempered by concurrent changes in state-specific harvest regulations during the regular harvest season. For SJBP Canada geese, annual fidelity to southeastern refuges was 10% higher for early arrivers than for late arriving geese. However, in any given year only 47–57% of the surviving geese were expected to return to the refuges the following year. Although early arriving migrants had higher survival and higher return probabilities than did late arriving migrants or geese that failed to return, numbers of geese wintering on southeastern refuges likely declined because <60% of the surviving geese affiliated with the refuges would return in a given year and because of lower survival for geese that did not return to the refuges.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗