Geology ReportsSearch

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Ocean Dynamics”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 523 records · Page 29Linked to original sources

Preface—Evaluating the response of critical zone processes to human impacts with sediment source fingerprinting

1) Background: Critical Zone Processes in the Anthropocene The Earth’s Critical Zone encompasses a suite of interconnected processes in the near-surface lithosphere, pedosphere, biosphere, atmosphere, and hydrosphere (Brantley et al., 2007; Lin, 2010) (Fig. 1). Processes and interactions both within and between these various Critical Zone components supports life-sustaining ecosystem services and resources that establish the foundation for humanity (NRC, 2001). This includes the formation production of fertile soils, flourishing vegetation, productive rivers, lakes and oceans, and our life-sustaining atmosphere (Gaillardet, 2014; Guo and Lin, 2016). Rapid population growth, land use intensification, and global environmental change are disturbing many of these fundamental Critical Zone processes. More than half of the Earth’s terrestrial surface is now impacted by anthropogenic activities (e.g., clearing, grazing, plowing, mining, and logging) (Hooke et al., 2012; Richter and Mobley, 2009). These changes are so widespread and pervasive that the great acceleration of socioeconomic development that occurred around 1950 (Fig. 2) has been recommended to delineate the dawn of the Anthropocene (Waters et al., 2016). Although the utility of adopting and delineating the Anthropocene as the current epoch is subject to debate (Crutzen, 2002; Ruddiman et al., 2015; Smith and Zeder, 2013), the concept effectively highlights both the nature and the extent of our global impact on Earth’s Critical Zone. Soil forming processes and ecosystem services provided by the pedosphere are central to the Critical Zone (Banwart et al., 2011; Lin, 2010). Many of these processes have been disturbed by the agricultural intensification that coincided with the great acceleration resulting in unsustainable land use practices now outpacing soil formation processes (Brantley et al., 2007). As agricultural landscapes now cover an area equivalent to what was scoured during the last glacial maximum (Amundson et al., 2007), the broad-scale intensification of anthropogenic activities has resulted in significant on- and off-site impacts. On-site, soil loss has resulted in decreases in soil fertility and agricultural yields (Ladha et al., 2009) threatening the ability to feed the world’s growing population (Brantley et al., 2007). Off-site, the excess delivery of particulate matter downstream is degrading riverine, lacustrine, and estuarine ecosystems (Bilotta and Brazier, 2008; Clark, 1985; Owens et al., 2005). The challenge, as noted by Brantley et al., (2007), is that despite our society having over 10,000 years of experience working with soils, our conceptual and quantitative models remain inadequate at predicting Critical Zone dynamics under current conditions. Notwithstanding growing pressure for improved environmental management, we still have a limited capacity to predict changes in the Critical Zone in response to anthropogenic activities owing to the multiple spatial and temporal scales at which these complex processes and feedbacks are manifest. As river basin systems are impacted by many of these processes, a deep understanding of soil-sediment continuum dynamics may provide a valuable framework for evaluating the disturbance response of Critical Zone processes. Understanding these processes may also provide land and resource managers with the information necessary to manage both the on-site and off-site effects of accelerated soil erosion.

Journal of Soils and Sediments

Mitigating flood risks in urban estuaries: Tidal dynamics, shoreline hardening, nature-based solutions, and floodgates in San Francisco Bay

Hydrodynamic models are valuable tools for understanding the primary factors influencing daily and peak water levels and for guiding discussions on potential adaptation strategies for managing flood risk in coastal areas. This analysis uses the Delft3D San Francisco Bay-Delta Community Model to simulate water levels and incorporates the effects of a number of adaptation measures in the urban San Francisco Bay estuary, California. In particular, we examine the influence of shoreline hardening, nature-based solutions, and subregional floodgates on regional water levels. The result shows that under present conditions, tidal amplification is responsible for generating a wide distribution of extreme water levels across San Francisco Bay. Tidal amplification is found to decrease under sea level rise, thereby producing a relative damping effect on extremes. A comparison of different shoreline scenarios demonstrates that hard frontal shorelines result in higher tidal amplification, whereas restored (soft) shorelines lower amplification. The current shoreline configuration has both hard and soft characteristics and results in an intermediate tidal response. In some areas, wetland restoration reduces extreme water levels by as much as 20 cm, whereas hard-shoreline addition elevates them by as much as 10 cm for 1.5 m of sea level rise. Furthermore, local floodgates can significantly reduce high water levels without major adverse effects elsewhere in San Francisco Bay. These findings point toward the justification for a range of adaptive measures across political boundaries, weighing hard and soft options in addressing the mounting danger of sea level rise.

California

Evaluation of reproductive status in Atlantic Tripletail by traditional and nonlethal approaches

Reproductive biology information is an important tool for fishery management actions such as the identification of spawning areas and the development of protective size limits, bag limits, and seasons. Such information for the management of Atlantic Tripletail Lobotes surinamensis is currently limited, particularly in the western Atlantic Ocean, as information regarding the reproductive biology of this species is sparse in the published literature. To this end, we determined the reproductive status of tripletail and compared the results of a nonlethal sampling method, plasma vitellogenin (VTG) analysis, with those of two traditional (lethal) methods, gonadosomatic index (GSI) and gonad histology. A total of 223 (122 male and 101 female) tripletail were sampled over 2 years near Jekyll Island, Georgia. Gonad histology indicated that 107 (94%) of the male tripletail were in the spawning-capable reproductive phase. Female tripletail were found in all reproductive phases, but only nine (8.9%) were in the spawning-capable phase. Plasma VTG was strongly related to GSI in females ( R 2 = 0.832, n = 77), and female GSI differed significantly among reproductive phases ( p < 0.0001). The estimated length at which 50% (L50) of female tripletail reached maturity was 463 mm; however, the L50 for male tripletail could not be determined because of the lack of immature fish within the study sample. Our study provides valuable information for the management of tripletail and indicates that a nonlethal approach (plasma VTG) may be useful for differentiating developing and spawning-capable females from males and from females in other reproductive phases.

Georgia

Utilizing multichannel electrical resistivity methods to examine the dynamics of the fresh water–seawater interface in two Hawaiian groundwater systems

Multichannel electrical resistivity (ER) measurements were conducted at two contrasting coastal sites in Hawaii to obtain new information on the spatial scales and dynamics of the fresh water&ndash;seawater interface and rates of coastal groundwater exchange. At Kiholo Bay (located on the dry, Kona side of the Big Island) and at a site in Maunalua Bay (Oahu), there is an evidence for abundant submarine groundwater discharge (SGD). However, the hydrologic and geologic controls on coastal groundwater discharge are likely to be different at these two sites. While at Kiholo Bay SGD is predominantly through lava tubes, at the Maunalua Bay site exchange occurs mostly through nearshore submarine springs. In order to calculate SGD fluxes, it is important to understand the spatial and temporal scales of coastal groundwater exchange. From ER time series data, subsurface salinity distributions were calculated using site-specific formation factors. A salinity mass balance box model was then used to calculate rates of point source (i.e., spatially discreet) and total fresh water discharge. From these data, mean SGD rates were calculated for Kiholo Bay (&sim;9,200 m 3 /d) and for the Maunalua Bay site (&sim;5,900 m 3 /d). While such results are on the same order of magnitude to geochemical tracer-derived SGD rates, the ER SGD rates provide enhanced details of coastal groundwater exchange that can enable a more cohesive whole watershed perspective.

Hawai'i

An evaluation of density-dependent and density-independent influences on population growth rates in Weddell seals

Much of the existing literature that evaluates the roles of density-dependent and density-independent factors on population dynamics has been called into question in recent years because measurement errors were not properly dealt with in analyses. Using state-space models to account for measurement errors, we evaluated a set of competing models for a 22-year time series of mark-resight estimates of abundance for a breeding population of female Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) studied in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We tested for evidence of direct density dependence in growth rates and evaluated whether equilibrium population size was related to seasonal sea-ice extent and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We found strong evidence of negative density dependence in annual growth rates for a population whose estimated size ranged from 438 to 623 females during the study. Based on Bayes factors, a density-dependence-only model was favored over models that also included en! vironmental covariates. According to the favored model, the population had a stationary distribution with a mean of 497 females (SD = 60.5), an expected growth rate of 1.10 (95% credible interval 1.08-1.15) when population size was 441 females, and a rate of 0.90 (95% credible interval 0.87-0.93) for a population of 553 females. A model including effects of SOI did receive some support and indicated a positive relationship between SOI and population size. However, effects of SOI were not large, and including the effect did not greatly reduce our estimate of process variation. We speculate that direct density dependence occurred because rates of adult survival, breeding, and temporary emigration were affected by limitations on per capita food resources and space for parturition and pup-rearing. To improve understanding of the relative roles of various demographic components and their associated vital rates to population growth rate, mark-recapture methods can be applied that incorporate both environmental covariates and the seal abundance estimates that were developed here. An improved understanding of why vital rates change with changing population abundance will only come as we develop a better understanding of the processes affecting marine food resources in the Southern Ocean.

Ecology

Rock mechanics observations pertinent to the rheology of the continental lithosphere and the localization of strain along shear zones

Emphasized in this paper are the deformation processes and rheologies of rocks at high temperatures and high effective pressures, conditions that are presumably appropriate to the lower crust and upper mantle in continental collision zones. Much recent progress has been made in understanding the flexure of the oceanic lithosphere using rock-mechanics-based yield criteria for the inelastic deformations at the top and base. At mid-plate depths, stresses are likely to be supported elastically because bending strains and elastic stresses are low. The collisional tectonic regime, however, is far more complex because very large permanent strains are sustained at mid-plate depths and this requires us to include the broad transition between brittle and ductile flow. Moreover, important changes in the ductile flow mechanisms occur at the intermediate temperatures found at mid-plate depths. Two specific contributions of laboratory rock rheology research are considered in this paper. First, the high-temperature steady-state flow mechanisms and rheology of mafic and ultramafic rocks are reviewed with special emphasis on olivine and crystalline rocks. Rock strength decreases very markedly with increases in temperature and it is the onset of flow by high temperature ductile mechanisms that defines the base of the lithosphere. The thickness of the continental lithosphere can therefore be defined by the depth to a particular isotherm Tc above which (at geologic strain rates) the high-temperature ductile strength falls below some arbitrary strength isobar (e.g., 100 MPa). For olivine Tc is about 700??-800??C but for other crustal silicates, Tc may be as low as 400??-600??C, suggesting that substantial decoupling may take place within thick continental crust and that strength may increase with depth at the Moho, as suggested by a number of workers on independent grounds. Put another way, the Moho is a rheological discontinuity. A second class of laboratory observations pertains to the general phenomenon of ductile faulting in which ductile strains are localized into shear zones. Ductile faults have been produced in experiments of five different rock types and is generally expressed as strain softening in constant-strain-rate tests or as an accelerating-creep-rate stage at constant differential stress. A number of physical mechanisms have been identified that may be responsible for ductile faulting, including the onset of dynamic recrystallization, phase changes, hydrothermal alteration and hydrolytic weakening. Microscopic evidence for these processes as well as larger-scale geological and geophysical observations suggest that ductile faulting in the middle to lower crust and upper mantle may greatly influence the distribution and magnitudes of differential stresses and the style of deformation in the overlying upper continental lithosphere.

Tectonophysics

The regional forcing of Northern hemisphere drought during recent warm tropical west Pacific Ocean La Niña events

Northern Hemisphere circulations differ considerably between individual El Ni&ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation events due to internal atmospheric variability and variation in the zonal location of sea surface temperature forcing over the tropical Pacific Ocean. This study examines the similarities between recent Northern Hemisphere droughts associated with La Ni&ntilde;a events and anomalously warm tropical west Pacific sea surface temperatures during 1988&ndash;1989, 1998&ndash;2000, 2007&ndash;2008 and 2010&ndash;2011 in terms of the hemispheric-scale circulations and the regional forcing of precipitation over North America and Asia during the cold season of November through April. The continental precipitation reductions associated with recent central Pacific La Ni&ntilde;a events were most severe over North America, eastern Africa, the Middle East and southwest Asia. High pressure dominated the entire Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and weakened and displaced storm tracks northward over North America into central Canada. Regionally over North America and Asia, the position of anomalous circulations within the zonal band of mid-latitude high pressure varied between each La Ni&ntilde;a event. Over the northwestern and southeastern United States and southern Asia, the interactions of anomalous circulations resulted in consistent regional temperature advection, which was subsequently balanced by similar precipitation-modifying vertical motions. Over the central and northeastern United States, the spatial variation of anomalous circulations resulted in modest inter-seasonal temperature advection variations, which were balanced by varying vertical motion and precipitation patterns. Over the Middle East and eastern Africa, the divergence of moisture and the advection of dry air due to anomalous circulations enhanced each of the droughts.

Climate Dynamics

Use of vertical temperature gradients for prediction of tidal flat sediment characteristics

Sediment characteristics largely govern tidal flat morphologic evolution; however, conventional methods of investigating spatial variability in lithology on tidal flats are difficult to employ in these highly dynamic regions. In response, a series of laboratory experiments was designed to investigate the use of temperature diffusion toward sediment characterization. A vertical thermistor array was used to quantify temperature gradients in simulated tidal flat sediments of varying compositions. Thermal conductivity estimates derived from these arrays were similar to measurements from a standard heated needle probe, which substantiates the thermistor methodology. While the thermal diffusivities of dry homogeneous sediments were similar, diffusivities for saturated homogeneous sediments ranged approximately one order of magnitude. The thermal diffusivity of saturated sand was five times the thermal diffusivity of saturated kaolin and more than eight times the thermal diffusivity of saturated bentonite. This suggests that vertical temperature gradients can be used for distinguishing homogeneous saturated sands from homogeneous saturated clays and perhaps even between homogeneous saturated clay types. However, experiments with more realistic tidal flat mixtures were less discriminating. Relationships between thermal diffusivity and percent fines for saturated mixtures varied depending upon clay composition, indicating that clay hydration and/or water content controls thermal gradients. Furthermore, existing models for the bulk conductivity of sediment mixtures were improved only through the use of calibrated estimates of homogeneous end-member conductivity and water content values. Our findings suggest that remotely sensed observations of water content and thermal diffusivity could only be used to qualitatively estimate tidal flat sediment characteristics.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

Development of a two-stage life cycle model for Oncorhynchus kisutch (coho salmon) in the upper Cowlitz River Basin, Washington

Recovery of salmon populations in the upper Cowlitz River Basin depends on trap-and-haul efforts owing to impassable dams. Therefore, successful recovery depends on the collection of out-migrating juvenile salmon at Cowlitz Falls Dam (CFD) for transport below downstream dams, as well as the collection of adults for transport upstream from the dams. Tacoma Power began downstream fish collection efforts at CFD in the mid-1990s and has been working consistently since then to improve collection efficiency to support self-sustaining salmon and steelhead ( Onchorhynchus spp.) populations in the upper Cowlitz River Basin. Although much work has focused on estimating fish collection efficiency (FCE), there has been relatively little focus on modeling population dynamics to understand how fish collection efficiency and other factors drive production of both juvenile and adult salmon over their life cycle. As a first step towards understanding the factors affecting population dynamics of Oncorhynchus kisutch (coho salmon) in the upper Cowlitz River Basin, we developed a statistical life cycle model using adult escapement and age structure data, juvenile collection data, and juvenile fish collection efficiency estimates. The goal of the statistical life cycle model is to estimate annual production and survival during two critical life-stage transitions: the freshwater production from escapement of adults upstream from CFD to collection of juveniles at CFD, and the juvenile-to-adult survival from the time of collection at the dam to the return of adults. To structure the life cycle model, we used the Ricker stock-recruitment model to estimate juvenile production from the number of parent spawners. This approach allowed us to account for density dependence at high spawner abundances while estimating annual productivity, defined as the number of juveniles produced per spawner at low spawner abundance. We then expressed productivity as a function two key variables affecting the number of juveniles collected and transported at CFD: (1) annual FCE, and (2) the annual number of days that spill occurred at CFD from September 1 to April 30. Our key findings were as follows: FCE was the primary factor affecting productivity of coho salmon upstream from CFD because FCE affects the number of juveniles that survive to continue downstream migration; Juvenile-to-adult return (JAR) rates were relatively high considering that harvest was included in the estimate, averaging about 3.6 percent and ranging as high as 9.1 percent, suggesting that adult coho salmon may be able to return to CFD at sustainable population sizes; and Much variation in the estimates of juvenile fish production upriver of CFD was unexplained even after adult escapement and FCE were accounted for, suggesting that the model may be improved by exploring different covariates and model structures for juvenile production as well as JAR rates. Additionally, by including FCE in the model, we estimated that the median pre-collection productivity, defined as the number of juveniles produced per spawner when FCE=1, was 108.4 juveniles per spawner. Because this two-stage life cycle model partitions factors that affect fish production in river compared to the ocean environment and fish life stages, the model estimates should help inform fishery managers about the overall role that fish collection at CFD may have on the recovery and sustainability of coho salmon populations.

Washington

Rip currents and alongshore flows in single channels dredged in the surf zone

To investigate the dynamics of flows near nonuniform bathymetry, single channels (on average 30 m wide and 1.5 m deep) were dredged across the surf zone at five different times, and the subsequent evolution of currents and morphology was observed for a range of wave and tidal conditions. In addition, circulation was simulated with the numerical modeling system COAWST, initialized with the observed incident waves and channel bathymetry, and with an extended set of wave conditions and channel geometries. The simulated flows are consistent with alongshore flows and rip-current circulation patterns observed in the surf zone. Near the offshore-directed flows that develop in the channel, the dominant terms in modeled momentum balances are wave-breaking accelerations, pressure gradients, advection, and the vortex force. The balances vary spatially, and are sensitive to wave conditions and the channel geometry. The observed and modeled maximum offshore-directed flow speeds are correlated with a parameter based on the alongshore gradient in breaking-wave-driven-setup across the nonuniform bathymetry (a function of wave height and angle, water depths in the channel and on the sandbar, and a breaking threshold) and the breaking-wave-driven alongshore flow speed. The offshore-directed flow speed increases with dissipation on the bar and reaches a maximum (when the surf zone is saturated) set by the vertical scale of the bathymetric variability.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

Climate Dynamics

Seasonal variation in sediment delivery across the bay-marsh interface of an estuarine salt marsh

Sediment transport across bay–marsh interfaces depends on wave energy, vegetation, and marsh-edge morphology, and varies over a range of timescales. We investigated these dynamics in a tidal salt marsh with a gently-sloped, vegetated edge adjacent to northern San Francisco Bay. Spartina foliosa (cordgrass) inhabits the lower marsh and Salicornia pacifica (pickleweed) predominates on the marsh plain. We measured suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) and hydrodynamics in bay shallows and along a 100-m cross-shore transect in the marsh, during winter and summer. Four-year averaged accretion measured with marker-horizon plots was twice as great along the marsh transect as adjacent to a tidal creek, 50 m from the bay. We estimated deposition and trapping efficiency from the time-series data to assess its variation with season and wave energy. At high tide the transition zone (between cordgrass and pickleweed) was usually erosional, the pickleweed zone was depositional, and both erosion and deposition increased with wave energy, as did the landward position of maximum deposition. Erosion from the transition zone accounted for approximately one-third of the sediment flux into the pickleweed. In the pickleweed zone, SSC, the difference between flood- and ebb-tide SSC and trapping efficiency were greater in summer than winter for comparable wave conditions, which we attribute to increased sediment trapping by dense summer cordgrass. Moderate waves in summer (46%) accounted for more annual accretion in the pickleweed zone than larger waves in winter (28%), although the contribution of winter storms was diminished by the dry winter during the study.

California

Observations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding

Many low-lying tropical islands are susceptible to sea level rise and often subjected to overwash and flooding during large wave events. To quantify wave dynamics and wave-driven water levels on fringing coral reefs, a 5 month deployment of wave gauges and a current meter was conducted across two shore-normal transects on Roi-Namur Island in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. These observations captured two large wave events that had waves with maximum heights greater than 6 m with peak periods of 16 s over the fore reef. The larger event coincided with a peak spring tide, leading to energetic, highly skewed infragravity (0.04&ndash;0.004 Hz) and very low frequency (0.004&ndash;0.001 Hz) waves at the shoreline, which reached heights of 1.0 and 0.7 m, respectively. Water surface elevations, combined with wave runup, reached 3.7 m above the reef bed at the innermost reef flat adjacent to the toe of the beach, resulting in flooding of inland areas. This overwash occurred during a 3 h time window that coincided with high tide and maximum low-frequency reef flat wave heights. The relatively low-relief characteristics of this narrow reef flat may further drive shoreline amplification of low-frequency waves due to resonance modes. These results (1) demonstrate how the coupling of high offshore water levels with low-frequency reef flat wave energetics can lead to large impacts along fringing reef-lined shorelines, such as island overwash, and (2) lend support to the hypothesis that predicted higher sea levels will lead to more frequent occurrences of these extreme events, negatively impacting coastal resources and infrastructure.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

Simulation of the effects of rainfall and groundwater use on historical lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows in central Florida

The urbanization of central Florida has progressed substantially in recent decades, and the total population in Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and Seminole Counties more than quadrupled from 1960 to 2010. The Floridan aquifer system is the primary source of water for potable, industrial, and agricultural purposes in central Florida. Despite increases in groundwater withdrawals to meet the demand of population growth, recharge derived by infiltration of rainfall in the well-drained karst terrain of central Florida is the largest component of the long-term water balance of the Floridan aquifer system. To complement existing physics-based groundwater flow models, artificial neural networks and other data-mining techniques were used to simulate historical lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at sites throughout the area. Historical data were examined using descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, and other exploratory analysis techniques to assess their suitability for more intensive data-mining analysis. Linear trend analyses of meteorological data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at 21 sites indicate 67 percent of sites exhibited upward trends in air temperature over at least a 45-year period of record, whereas 76 percent exhibited downward trends in rainfall over at least a 95-year period of record. Likewise, linear trend analyses of hydrologic response data, which have varied periods of record ranging in length from 10 to 79 years, indicate that water levels in lakes (307 sites) were about evenly split between upward and downward trends, whereas water levels in 69 percent of wells (out of 455 sites) and flows in 68 percent of springs (out of 19 sites) exhibited downward trends. Total groundwater use in the study area increased from about 250 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in 1958 to about 590 Mgal/d in 1980 and remained relatively stable from 1981 to 2008, with a minimum of 559 Mgal/d in 1994 and a maximum of 773 Mgal/d in 2000. The change in groundwater-use trend in the early 1980s and the following period of relatively slight trend is attributable to the concomitant effects of increasing public-supply withdrawals and decreasing use of water by the phosphate industry and agriculture. On the basis of available historical data and exploratory analyses, empirical lake water-level, groundwater-level, and spring-flow models were developed for 22 lakes, 23 wells, and 6 springs. Input time series consisting of various frequencies and frequency-band components of daily rainfall (1942 to 2008) and monthly total groundwater use (1957 to 2008) resulted in hybrid signal-decomposition artificial neural network models. The final models explained much of the variability in observed hydrologic data, with 43 of the 51 sites having coefficients of determination exceeding 0.6, and the models matched the magnitude of the observed data reasonably well, such that models for 32 of the 51 sites had root-mean-square errors less than 10 percent of the measured range of the data. The Central Florida Artificial Neural Network Decision Support System was developed to integrate historical databases and the 102 site-specific artificial neural network models, model controls, and model output into a spreadsheet application with a graphical user interface that allows the user to simulate scenarios of interest. Overall, the data-mining analyses indicate that the Floridan aquifer system in central Florida is a highly conductive, dynamic, open system that is strongly influenced by external forcing. The most important external forcing appears to be rainfall, which explains much of the multiyear cyclic variability and long-term downward trends observed in lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows. For most sites, groundwater use explains less of the observed variability in water levels and flows than rainfall. Relative groundwater-use impacts are greater during droughts, however, and long-term trends in water levels and flows were identified that are consistent with historical groundwater-use patterns. The sensitivity of the hydrologic system to rainfall is expected, owing to the well-drained karst terrain and relatively thin confinement of the Floridan aquifer system in much of central Florida. These characteristics facilitate the relatively rapid transmission of infiltrating water from rainfall to the water table and contribute to downward leakage of water to the Floridan aquifer system. The areally distributed nature of rainfall, as opposed to the site-specific nature of groundwater use, and the generally high transmissivity and low storativity properties of the semiconfined Floridan aquifer system contribute to the prevalence of water-level and flow patterns that mimic rainfall patterns. In general, the data-mining analyses demonstrate that the hydrologic system in central Florida is affected by groundwater use differently during wet periods, when little or no system storage is available (high water levels), compared to dry periods, when there is excess system storage (low water levels). Thus, by driving the overall behavior of the system, rainfall indirectly influences the degree to which groundwater use will effect persistent trends in water levels and flows, with groundwater-use impacts more prevalent during periods of low water levels and spring flows caused by low rainfall and less prevalent during periods of high water levels and spring flows caused by high rainfall. Differences in the magnitudes of rainfall and groundwater use during wet and dry periods also are important determinants of hydrologic response. An important implication of the data-mining analyses is that rainfall variability at subannual to multidecadal timescales must be considered in combination with groundwater use to provide robust system-response predictions that enhance sustainable resource management in an open karst aquifer system. The data-driven approach was limited, however, by the confounding effects of correlation between rainfall and groundwater use, the quality and completeness of the historical databases, and the spatial variations in groundwater use. The data-mining analyses indicate that available historical data when used alone do not contain sufficient information to definitively quantify the related individual effects of rainfall and groundwater use on hydrologic response. The knowledge gained from data-driven modeling and the results from physics-based modeling, when compared and used in combination, can yield a more comprehensive assessment and a more robust understanding of the hydrologic system than either of the approaches used separately.

Florida

Wind-enhanced resuspension in the shallow waters of South San Francisco Bay: Mechanisms and potential implications for cohesive sediment transport

We investigated the driving forces of sediment dynamics at the shoals in South San Francisco Bay. Two stations were deployed along a line perpendicular to a 14 m deep channel, 1000 and 2000 m from the middle of the channel. Station depths were 2.59 and 2.19 m below mean lower low water, respectively. We used acoustic Doppler velocimeters for the simultaneous determination of current velocities, turbulence, sediment concentration and fluxes. Maximum current shear velocities were 0.015 m s −1 at the station further from the channel (closer to the shore) and 0.02 m s −1 at the station closer to the channel. Peak wave-induced shear velocities exceeded 0.015 m s −1 at both stations. Maximum sediment concentrations were around 30 g m −3 during calm periods (root mean square wave height <0.15 m). During wavy periods, sediment concentrations increased to 100 g m −3 and sediment fluxes were 5 times higher than in calm conditions (0.02 g m −2 s −1 versus >0.10 g m −2 s −1 ) at the station further from the channel 0.36 m above the bed. Closer to the channel, sediment concentrations and vertical fluxes due to wind wave resuspension were persistently lower (maximum concentrations around 50 g m −3 and maximum fluxes around 0.04 g m −2 s −1 ). Most resuspension events occurred during flood tides that followed wave events during low water. Although wave motions are able to resuspend sediment into the wave boundary layer at low tide, the observed large increases in sediment fluxes are due to the nonlinear interaction of wind waves and the tidal currents.

California

Debris flow monitoring in the Acquabona watershed on the Dolomites (Italian Alps)

In 1997 a field monitoring system was installed in Acquabona Creek in the Dolomites (Eastern Italian Alps) to observe the hydrologic conditions for debris flow occurrence and some dynamic properties of debris flow. The monitoring system consists of three remote stations: an upper one located at the head of a deeply-incised channel and two others located downstream. The system is equipped with sensors for measuring rainfall, pore pressures in the mobile channel bottom, ground vibrations, debris flow depth, total normal stress and fluid pore-pressure at the base of the flow. Two video cameras record events at the upper channel station and one video is installed at the lowermost station. During summer 1998, three debris flows (volumes from less than 1000 m 3 up to 9000 m 3 ) occurred at Acquabona. The following results were obtained from a preliminary analysis of the data: 1) All of the flows were triggered by rainfalls of less than 1 hour duration, with peak rainfall intensities ranging from 4.8 to 14.7 mm / 10 minute. 2) Debris flows initiated in several reaches of the channel, including the head of the talus slope. 3) The initial surges of the mature flows had a higher solid concentration and a lower velocity (up to 4 m/s) than succeeding, more dilute surges (more than 7 m/s). 4) Total normal stress and pore fluid pressures measured at the base of the flow. (mean depth about 1.1 m) were similar (about 15 kPa), indicating a completely liquefied flow. 5) Peak flows entrained debris at a rate of about 6 m 3/m of channel length and channel bed scouring was proportional to the local slope gradient and was still evident in the lower channel where the slope was 7°.

Acquabona Creek, Alps, Boite River, Dolomites

A numerical study of wave-driven mean flows and setup dynamics at a coral reef-lagoon system

Two-dimensional mean wave-driven flow and setup dynamics were investigated at a reef-lagoon system at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia, using the numerical wave-flow model, SWASH. Phase-resolved numerical simulations of the wave and flow fields, validated with highly detailed field observations (including >10 sensors through the energetic surf zone), were used to quantify the main mechanisms that govern the mean momentum balances and resulting mean current and setup patterns, with particular attention to the role of nonlinear wave shapes. Momentum balances from the phase-resolved model indicated that onshore flows near the reef crest were primarily driven by the wave force (dominated by radiation stress gradients) due to intense breaking, whereas the flow over the reef flat and inside the lagoon and channels was primarily driven by a pressure gradient. Wave setup inside the lagoon was primarily controlled by the wave force and bottom stress. The bottom stress reduced the setup on the reef flat and inside the lagoon. Excluding the bottom stress contribution in the setup balance resulted in an over prediction of the wave-setup inside the lagoon by up to 200–370%. The bottom stress was found to be caused by the combined presence of onshore directed wave-driven currents and (nonlinear) waves. Exclusion of the bottom stress contribution from nonlinear wave shapes led to an over prediction of the setup inside the lagoon by approximately 20–40%. The inclusion of the nonlinear wave shape contribution to the bottom stress term was found to be particularly relevant in reef regions that experience a net onshore mass flux over the reef crest.

Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans

Sora rail studies on the Patuxent River, Maryland

The freshwater marshes of the tidal Patuxent River are well known for their annual fall concentration of migrant soras ( Porzana carolina ) and were formerly the most famous rail hunting grounds in the Chesapeake Bay region. Because of concern over the apparent long-term decline in number of soras and the decline in the quality of the Patuxent marshes, especially the loss of wild rice ( Zizania aquatica ), the Maryland National-Capital Park and Planning Commission (MNCPPC), co-steward of the Jug Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, sponsored rail-related research beginning in 1987. Past efforts focused on developing efficient trapping techniques, age and sex criteria, and monitoring body mass dynamics. Noted progress was made in developing digital playback systems and trap improvements to enhance sora captures. These improvements increased capture success by over an order of magnitude and resulted in capture of 2,315 soras and 276 Virginia rails ( Rallus limicola ) in the 5 year period, 1993-97. Although these methods demonstrate the efficacy of banding large numbers of soras on migration and possibly winter concentration areas, captures at the Patuxent River site have been 70-90% hatching-year birds and recoveries and recaptures have been virtually nonexistent. With the present effort, this outcome precludes population parameter estimation using traditional capture-recapture or recovery model methodologies. In 1996, studies were initiated to employ radio telemetry methods to investigate length of stay, habitat use, survival, and migration characteristics of fall migrant soras. These studies are ongoing and will be continued through 1998 with a grant from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's Webless Migratory Game Bird Research Program and support from the U.S. Geological Survey's Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Supplemental funding has also been provided by MNCPPC, FWS Region 5, the Maryland Ornithological Society, Quail Unlimited, and Prince Georges Community College. During 1996-97 we developed a successful radio transmitter attachment technique to secure 1.8g radio transmitters over the synsacrum of migrant soras. We modified Rappole and Tipton's (1991) leg-loop attachment method by addition of a waist loop to prevent soras from slipping transmitters over their short tails. Thin gauge (0.6 mm) elastic thread proved ideal for attachment and allowed for girth expansion associated with fattening during stopover. Sixty instrumented soras have been monitored in two years of study from early September until early November. Only a single mortality was recorded and 41 (68%) were confIrmed and another 13 (total 90%) were believed to have migrated from the study area. Only a single bird slipped a radio transmitter. Most birds demonstrated a sedentary nature in the marsh throughout stopover. Average length of stay was 44 days in 1997 (n=29) with peak departure occurring 20-24 October. Departing migrants were detected using a receiver/data-logger monitoring system placed 4 miles down river from the study site. Thirty-six of 37 (97%) soras departed in a 2-hour window of time, beginning 1 hour after sunset. Departure was synchronized with cold fronts on clear, starlit nights. Twenty-five soras were monitored on migration from 8 km to as far away as 770 km. Findings indicate migration flight speeds of 40 to 50 mph and a direct southward orientation from the study site at least until contact with the Atlantic Ocean west of Cape Lookout, North Carolina. We also attempted to monitor passage of migrant soras radio tagged at Iroquois National Wildlife Refuge in western New York by biologist Soch Lor. None were recorded passing a monitoring unit at Haldeman Island in the middle of the Susquehanna River 10 miles north of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. This further corroborates our findings that when migrating overland, soras move in a direct southward orientation and are not following land features such as major rivers

Book chapter