SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Science Trends”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28Linked to original sources

USGS2009

Holocene sea-level changes along the North Carolina Coastline and their implications for glacial isostatic adjustment models

We have synthesized new and existing relative sea-level (RSL) data to produce a quality-controlled, spatially comprehensive database from the North Carolina coastline. The RSL database consists of 54 sea-level index points that are quantitatively related to an appropriate tide level and assigned an error estimate, and a further 33 limiting dates that confine the maximum and minimum elevations of RSL. The temporal distribution of the index points is very uneven with only five index points older than 4000 cal a BP, but the form of the Holocene sea-level trend is constrained by both terrestrial and marine limiting dates. The data illustrate RSL rapidly rising during the early and mid Holocene from an observed elevation of -35.7 ?? 1.1 m MSL at 11062-10576 cal a BP to -4.2 m ?? 0.4 m MSL at 4240-3592 cal a BP. We restricted comparisons between observations and predictions from the ICE-5G(VM2) with rotational feedback Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model to the Late Holocene RSL (last 4000 cal a BP) because of the wealth of sea-level data during this time interval. The ICE-5G(VM2) model predicts significant spatial variations in RSL across North Carolina, thus we subdivided the observations into two regions. The model forecasts an increase in the rate of sea-level rise in Region 1 (Albemarle, Currituck, Roanoke, Croatan, and northern Pamlico sounds) compared to Region 2 (southern Pamlico, Core and Bogue sounds, and farther south to Wilmington). The observations show Late Holocene sea-level rising at 1.14 ?? 0.03 mm year -1 and 0.82 ?? 0.02 mm year -1 in Regions 1 and 2, respectively. The ICE-5G(VM2) predictions capture the general temporal trend of the observations, although there is an apparent misfit for index points older than 2000 cal a BP. It is presently unknown whether these misfits are caused by possible tectonic uplift associated with the mid-Carolina Platform High or a flaw in the GIA model. A comparison of local tide gauge data with the Late Holocene RSL trends from Regions 1 and 2 support the spatial variation in RSL across North Carolina, and imply an additional increase of mean sea level of greater than 2 mm year -1 during the latter half of the 20th century; this is in general agreement with historical tide gauge and satellite altimetry data. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2004

The geochemistry of Seine River Basin particulate matter: Distribution of an integrated metal pollution index

Spatial analysis (1994-2001) and temporal trends (1980-2000) for particulate-associated metals at key stations in the Seine River Basin have been determined using a new metal pollution index (MPI). The MPI is based on the concentrations of Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb and Zn, normalized to calculated background levels estimated for each particulate matter samples for four fractions (clays and other aluminosilicates, carbonates, organic matter, and quartz). Background levels ascribed to each fraction were determined from a specific set of samples collected from relatively pristine areas in the upper Seine basin and validated on prehistoric samples. The unitless MPI is designed to vary between 0 for pristine samples to 100 for the ones extremely impacted by human activities and to assess the trends of general metal contamination and its mapping. Throughout the Seine basin, MPI currently range from 1 to 40, but values exceeding 100 have been found in periurban streams and the Eure tributary. Based on the MPI spatial distribution, the Seine River Basin displays a wide range of anthropogenic impacts linked to variations in population density, stream order, wastewater discharges and industrial activities. Correlations between the MPI and other trace elements indicate that anthropogenic impacts also strongly affect the concentrations of Ag, Sb, and P, marginally affect the concentrations of Ba, Ni, and Cr, and appear to have little effect on the concentrations of Li, Be, V, Co, and the major elements. Temporal MPI trends can also be reconstituted from past regulatory surveys. In the early 1980s, MPI were 2-5 times higher than nowadays at most locations, particularly downstream of Greater Paris where it reached levels as high as 250 (now 40), a value characteristic of present Paris urban sewage. The exceptional contamination of the Seine basin is gradually improving over the last 20 years but remains very high. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2013

Mercury speciation and mobilization in a wastewater-contaminated groundwater plume

We measured the concentration and speciation of mercury (Hg) in groundwater down-gradient from the site of wastewater infiltration beds operated by the Massachusetts Military Reservation, western Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Total mercury concentrations in oxic, mildly acidic, uncontaminated groundwater are 0.5–1 pM, and aquifer sediments have 0.5–1 ppb mercury. The plume of impacted groundwater created by the wastewater disposal is still evident, although inputs ceased in 1995, as indicated by anoxia extending at least 3 km down-gradient from the disposal site. Solutes indicative of a progression of anaerobic metabolisms are observed vertically and horizontally within the plume, with elevated nitrate concentrations and nitrate reduction surrounding a region with elevated iron concentrations indicating iron reduction. Mercury concentrations up to 800 pM were observed in shallow groundwater directly under the former infiltration beds, but concentrations decreased with depth and with distance down-gradient. Mercury speciation showed significant connections to the redox and metabolic state of the groundwater, with relatively little methylated Hg within the iron reducing sector of the plume, and dominance of this form within the higher nitrate/ammonium zone. Furthermore, substantial reduction of Hg(II) to Hg0 within the core of the anoxic zone was observed when iron reduction was evident. These trends not only provide insight into the biogeochemical factors controlling the interplay of Hg species in natural waters, but also support hypotheses that anoxia and eutrophication in groundwater facilitate the mobilization of natural and anthropogenic Hg from watersheds/aquifers, which can be transported down-gradient to freshwaters and the coastal zone.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2024

Vulnerability of endemic insular mole skinks to sea-level rise

Although coastal islands are home to many endemic species, they are also at risk of inundation from storm surge and sea level rise. Three subspecies of mole skink ( Plestiodon egregius egregius , P. e. insularis , and the Egmont Key Mole Skink known from a single occurrence) occur on a small number of islands off the Gulf Coast of Florida, USA. We used the most recent sea level rise projections and the latest storm surge simulation data to predict impacts to habitat for insular mole skinks in Florida from 2030 to 2150. Our models predicted that in <100 years (by 2100; intermediate sea level rise scenario; ~1.08–1.15 m sea level rise), >78% of preferred habitat for the Florida Keys Mole Skink, >65% of preferred habitat for the Cedar Key Mole Skink, and >36% of preferred habitat for the Egmont Key Mole Skink will be inundated from sea level rise. Storm surge from tropical cyclones presents a more immediate risk to insular mole skink habitat: our models predicted that between 58% and 75% of Florida Keys Mole Skink habitat is at risk of being submerged under an average maximum of between 0.60 (SD = 0.86) and 0.98 (SD = 0.36) m of storm surge water for a category 1 storm, and the amount of habitat predicted to be impacted increases for higher intensity storms. Our models predicted similar trends for Cedar Key and Egmont Key Mole Skink habitat. Given current sea level rise projections, our models predicted that all three subspecies could be extinct by 2140 due to habitat inundation. There remains uncertainty about how species and ecosystems will respond to sea level rise, thus research to fill these gaps could help mitigate the effects of sea level rise in areas most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS1995

Land subsidence in drained histosols and highly organic mineral soils of California

This study was conducted to determine historical trends in subsidence in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and their environmental controls. In the western Delta, average subsidence rates were 2.3 cm yr-1 from 1910 to 1.5 cm yr-1 from 1952 to 1988. Spatially variability in subsidence was correlated with organic matter content of the soil which in turn was related to the depositional and drainage history of the Delta. Subsidence rates appaeared to be independent of crops grown.

California↗

USGS2006

EMMMA: A web-based system for environmental mercury mapping, modeling, and analysis

Mercury in our environment - in our air, water, soil, and especially our food - poses significant hazards to human health, particularly for developing fetuses and young children. Because of the importance of this issue and the length of time it has been studied, large and complex data sets of mercury concentrations in various media and associated ancillary data have been generated by many Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies. To facilitate efficient and effective use of these data in managing and mitigating human and wildlife exposure to mercury, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences have developed a website for visualizing and studying the distribution of mercury in our environment. The Environmental Mercury Mapping, Modeling, and Analysis (EMMMA) website (http://emmma.usgs.gov) provides health and environmental researchers, managers, and other decision-makers the ability to: 1) Interactively view and access a nationwide collection of environmental mercury data (fish tissue, atmospheric emissions and deposition, stream sediments, soils, and coal) and mercuryrelated data (mine locations); 2) Interactively view and access predictions of the National Descriptive Model of Mercury in Fish (NDMMF) at 4,976 sites and 6,829 sampling events (events are unique combinations of site and sampling date) across the United States; and 3) Use interactive mapping and graphing capabilities to visualize spatial and temporal trends and study relationships between mercury and other variables.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2007

Characterization of methane hydrate host sediments using synchrotron-computed microtomography (CMT)

The hydrate-sediment interaction is an important aspect of gas hydrate studies that needs further examination. We describe here the applicability of the computed microtomography (CMT) technique that utilizes an intense X-ray synchrotron source to characterize sediment samples, two at various depths from the Blake Ridge area (a well-known hydrate-prone region) and one from Georges Bank, that once contained methane trapped as hydrates. Detailed results of the tomographic analysis performed on the deepest sample (667??m) from Blake Ridge are presented as 2-D and 3-D images which show several mineral constituents, the internal grain/pore microstructure, and, following segmentation into pore and grain space, a visualization of the connecting pathways through the pore-space of the sediment. Various parameters obtained from the analysis of the CMT data are presented for all three sediment samples. The micro-scale porosity values showed decreasing trend with increasing depth for all three samples that is consistent with the previously reported bulk porosity data. The 3-D morphology, pore-space pathways, porosity, and permeability values are also reported for all three samples. The application of CMT is now being expanded to the laboratory-formed samples of hydrate in sediments as well as field samples of methane hydrate bearing sediments.

Blake Ridge, Georges Bank↗

USGS2004

Are brook trout streams in Western Virginia and Shenandoah National Park recovering from acidification?

Streamwater composition data obtained through periodic sampling of streams that support brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) in the mountains of western Virginia were examined for evidence of recovery from acidification during the 1988−2001 period. Measurements of sulfate deposition in precipitation indicate that sulfate deposition in the region declined approximately 40% between 1985 and 2000. While no significant regional trends in acid−base constituents were observed for the set ( n = 65) of western Virginia study streams, significant regional trends were observed for a subset ( n = 14) of streams in Shenandoah National Park (SNP). For the subset of SNP streams, the median increase in acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) was 0.168 μequiv L -1 year -1 and the median decrease in sulfate concentration was −0.229 μequiv L -1 year -1 . Although these trends are consistent with recovery from acidification, the degree of apparent recovery is small compared to estimates of historic acidification in SNP streams and much less than observed in other, more northern regions in the United States. Correlation between sulfate concentration trends and current sulfate concentrations in streamwater suggests that recovery from stream acidification in the western Virginia region is determined by sulfur retention processes in watershed soils. A transient increase in nitrate concentrations that occurred among some western Virginia streams following forest defoliation by the gypsy moth ( Lymantria dispar ) complicates interpretation of the observed patterns of change in acid−base status.

Virginia↗

USGS2010

A procedure for radiometric recalibration of Landsat 5 TM reflective-band data

From the Landsat program's inception in 1972 to the present, the Earth science user community has been benefiting from a historical record of remotely sensed data. The multispectral data from the Landsat 5 (L5) Thematic Mapper (TM) sensor provide the backbone for this extensive archive. Historically, the radiometric calibration procedure for the L5 TM imagery used the detectors' response to the internal calibrator (IC) on a scene-by-scene basis to determine the gain and offset for each detector. The IC system degraded with time, causing radiometric calibration errors up to 20%. In May 2003, the L5 TM data processed and distributed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science Center through the National Landsat Archive Production System (NLAPS) were updated to use a lifetime lookup-table (LUT) gain model to radiometrically calibrate TM data instead of using scene-specific IC gains. Further modification of the gain model was performed in 2007. The L5 TM data processed using IC prior to the calibration update do not benefit from the recent calibration revisions. A procedure has been developed to give users the ability to recalibrate their existing level-1 products. The best recalibration results are obtained if the work-order report that was included in the original standard data product delivery is available. However, if users do not have the original work-order report, the IC trends can be used for recalibration. The IC trends were generated using the radiometric gain trends recorded in the NLAPS database. This paper provides the details of the recalibration procedure for the following: 1) data processed using IC where users have the work-order file; 2) data processed using IC where users do not have the work-order file; 3) data processed using prelaunch calibration parameters; and 4) data processed using the previous version of the LUT (e.g., LUT03) that was released before April 2, 2007.

IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing↗

USGS2015

Dramatic increase in sea otter mortality from white sharks in California

Although southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) are not considered prey for white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias), sharks do nonetheless bite sea otters. We analyzed spatial and temporal trends in shark bites on sea otters in California, assessing the frequency of shark bite wounds in 1,870 carcasses collected since 1985. The proportion of stranded sea otters having shark bites has increased sharply since 2003, and white shark bites now account for >50% of recovered carcasses. The trend was most pronounced in the southern part of the range, from Estero Bay to Point Conception, where shark bite frequency has increased eightfold. Seasonal trends were also evident: most shark-bitten carcasses are recovered in late summer and fall; however, the period of elevated shark bite frequency has lengthened. The causes of these trends are unclear, but possible contributing factors include increased white shark abundance and/or changes in white shark behavior and distribution. In particular, the spatiotemporal patterns of shark-bitten sea otters match increases in pinniped populations, and the increased availability of marine mammal prey for white sharks may have led to more sharks spending more time in nearshore waters utilized by both sea otters and pinnipeds.

California↗

USGS2016

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

Science↗

USGS2022

Workshops report for mesophotic and deep benthic community fish, mobile invertebrates, sessile invertebrates and infauna

Two workshops with subject matter experts in the appropriate fields, were held in November and December 2021 to elicit guidance and feedback from the broader mesophotic and deep benthic scientific community. These workshops focused on best practices/approaches and identifying data gaps relative to habitat assessment and evaluation goals of the Mesophotic and Deep Benthic Community (MDBC) restoration portfolio. The first workshop was a combined effort of the Habitat Assessment and Evaluation (HAE) Project Team and the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) Program. Industrial Economics, Inc. (IEc) provided extensive workshop planning, organizing, execution, and facilitation support during all stages of the workshop. Based on a questionnaire sent to scientists in August, 2021, the workshop focused on fish and mobile invertebrate habitat associations, abundance trends, community metrics, and food web functionality. Topical presentations and discussions focused not only on demersal fish and mobile invertebrates that are directly associated with mesophotic and deep benthic habitats, but also considered water column species and communities that benefit from these habitats more broadly. The second workshop, intended to complement the first workshop, focused on identifying best practices and critical information gaps for key community metrics, larval dispersal modeling, connectivity, effects and variability of environmental parameters, and recovery trajectories of corals, infauna, and other sessile invertebrates. Through literature review, internal HAE scientists considered these topics to be critical for restoration success. Products from the literature review included topical summaries (see Appendix B) that summarized the current state-of-the-science and provided the framework for the workshop. Information generated from the workshops will assist the MDBC HAE Project, and more broadly the DWH Program, identify data gaps and develop a suite of best practices for restoration activities.

DWH MDBC Summary Report↗

USGS2011

Secular trends in the geologic record and the supercontinent cycle

Geologic secular trends are used to refine the timetable of supercontinent assembly, tenure, and breakup. The analysis rests on what is meant by the term supercontinent, which here is defined broadly as a grouping of formerly dispersed continents. To avoid the artificial pitfall of an all-or-nothing definition, quantitative measures of “supercontinentality” are presented: the number of continents, and the area of the largest continent, which both can be gleaned from global paleogeographic maps for the Phanerozoic. For the secular trends approach to be viable in the deep past when the very existence of supercontinents is debatable and reconstructions are fraught with problems, it must first be calibrated in the Phanerozoic against the well-constrained Pangea supercontinent cycle. The most informative geologic variables covering both the Phanerozoic and Precambrian are the abundances of passive margins and of detrital zircons. Both fluctuated with size of the largest continent during the Pangea supercontinent cycle and can be quantified back to the Neoarchean. The tenure of Pangea was a time represented in the rock record by few zircons and few passive margins. Thus, previously documented minima in the abundance of detrital zircons (and orogenic granites) during the Precambrian (Condie et al., 2009a, Gondwana Research 15, 228–242) now can be more confidently interpreted as marking the tenures of supercontinents. The occurrences of carbonatites, granulites, eclogites, and greenstone-belt deformation events also appear to bear the imprint of Precambrian supercontinent cyclicity. Together, these secular records are consistent with the following scenario. The Neoarchean continental assemblies of Superia and Sclavia broke up at ca. 2300 and ca. 2090 Ma, respectively. Some of their fragments collided to form Nuna by about 1750 Ma; Nuna then grew by lateral accretion of juvenile arcs during the Mesoproterozoic, and was involved in a series of collisions at ca. 1000 Ma to form Rodinia. Rodinia broke up in stages from ca. 1000 to ca. 520 Ma. Before Rodinia had completely come apart, some of its pieces had already been reassembled in a new configuration, Gondwana, which was completed by 530 Ma. Gondwana later collided with Laurentia, Baltica, and Siberia to form Pangea by about 300 Ma. Breakup of Pangea began at about 180 Ma (Early Jurassic) and continues today. In the suggested scenario, no supercontinent cycle in Earth history corresponded to the ideal, in which all the continents were gathered together, then broke apart, then reassembled in a new configuration. Nuna and Gondwana ended their tenures not by breakup but by collision and name change; Rodinia's assembly overlapped in time with its disassembly; and Pangea spalled Tethyan microcontinents throughout much of its tenure. Many other secular trends show a weak or uneven imprint of the supercontinent cycle, no imprint at all. Instead, these secular trends together reveal aspects of the shifting background against which the supercontinents came and went, making each cycle unique. Global heat production declined; plate tectonics sped up through the Proterozoic and slowed down through the Phanerozoic; the atmosphere and oceans became oxidized; life emerged as a major geochemical agent; some rock types went extinct or nearly so (BIF, massif-type anorthosite, komatiite); and other rock types came into existence or became common (blueschists, bioclastic limestone, coal).

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2026

Decadal trends and occurrence of geogenic constituents and mixtures in groundwater across the continental United States

Worldwide, about 50% of the population is served by groundwater-sourced drinking water. Numerous groundwater quality assessments have found that geogenic constituents are among the most common contaminants in drinking-water aquifers. Documenting changing groundwater quality is a crucial aspect of water availability assessments. We assess trends and occurrence of geogenic constituent concentrations in groundwater across the continental United States using 3 decades of data from the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Quality Network. Thousands of groundwater wells were grouped into agricultural, urban, or domestic supply network types. Although most networks and constituents had no statistically significant change in concentration, many had increasing concentration trends, elevated concentrations, or both. Lithium, sodium, radium, sulfate, and uranium had increasing trends in more than 10% of the study networks. Urban and domestic well networks had increasing lithium and sodium trends more often than agricultural networks. Manganese most commonly increased in domestic well networks; uranium more commonly increased in agricultural and urban networks. Elevated concentration mixtures were widespread, and mixture complexities appeared to increase over time. Our results indicate that more than 2.3 million domestic-well users may be affected by elevated concentrations of one or more geogenic constituents.

continental United States↗

USGS2010

Detecting temporal trends in species assemblages with bootstrapping procedures and hierarchical models

Quantifying patterns of temporal trends in species assemblages is an important analytical challenge in community ecology. We describe methods of analysis that can be applied to a matrix of counts of individuals that is organized by species (rows) and time-ordered sampling periods (columns). We first developed a bootstrapping procedure to test the null hypothesis of random sampling from a stationary species abundance distribution with temporally varying sampling probabilities. This procedure can be modified to account for undetected species. We next developed a hierarchical model to estimate species-specific trends in abundance while accounting for species-specific probabilities of detection. We analysed two long-term datasets on stream fishes and grassland insects to demonstrate these methods. For both assemblages, the bootstrap test indicated that temporal trends in abundance were more heterogeneous than expected under the null model. We used the hierarchical model to estimate trends in abundance and identified sets of species in each assemblage that were steadily increasing, decreasing or remaining constant in abundance over more than a decade of standardized annual surveys. Our methods of analysis are broadly applicable to other ecological datasets, and they represent an advance over most existing procedures, which do not incorporate effects of incomplete sampling and imperfect detection.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2000

Intra-basinal water movements induced by faulting: The August 17, 1999, Golcuk (Izmit Bay) earthquake (M(W) = 7.4)

A strong earthquake (M(w) = 7.4) occurred near the town of Golcuk, Izmit Bay, Western Turkey, at 00:01 GMT on August 17, 1999. Izmit Bay is a E-W trending pull-apart basin with a surface area of about 300 km2 along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAF), in the eastern extension of the Sea of Marmara. The earthquake was caused by a westerly movement of the Anatolian plate along NAF and was accompanied by isolated, chaotic water movements along the northern and southern shores of the bay. At localities along the shoreline a sudden drop in sea level, and a subsequent rise was prominent. The mode of observed sea-level movements rules out the occurrence of a basin-wide tsunami, sensu stricto. Instead, the water movements are attributed to localized sudden dip-slip movements of fault blocks in this pull-apart basin. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

Marine Geology↗

USGS2008

Towards monitoring land-cover and land-use changes at a global scale: the global land survey 2005

Land cover is a critical component of the Earth system, infl uencing land-atmosphere interactions, greenhouse gas fl uxes, ecosystem health, and availability of food, fi ber, and energy for human populations. The recent Integrated Global Observations of Land (IGOL) report calls for the generation of maps documenting global land cover at resolutions between 10m and 30m at least every fi ve years (Townshend et al., in press). Moreover, despite 35 years of Landsat observations, there has not been a unifi ed global analysis of land-cover trends nor has there been a global assessment of land-cover change at Landsat-like resolution. Since the 1990s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have supported development of data sets based on global Landsat observations (Tucker et al., 2004). These land survey data sets, usually referred to as GeoCover ™, provide global, orthorectifi ed, typically cloud-free Landsat imagery centered on the years 1975, 1990, and 2000, with a preference for leaf-on conditions. Collectively, these data sets provided a consistent set of observations to assess land-cover changes at a decadal scale. These data are freely available via the Internet from the USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) (see http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov or http://glovis.usgs.gov). This has resulted in unprecedented downloads of data, which are widely used in scientifi c studies of land-cover change (e.g., Boone et al., 2007; Harris et al., 2005; Hilbert, 2006; Huang et al. 2007; Jantz et al., 2005, Kim et al., 2007; Leimgruber, 2005; Masek et al., 2006). NASA and USGS are continuing to support land-cover change research through the development of GLS2005 - an additional global Landsat assessment circa 20051 . Going beyond the earlier initiatives, this data set will establish a baseline for monitoring changes on a 5-year interval and will pave the way toward continuous global land-cover monitoring at Landsat-like resolution in the next decade.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗

USGS2018

Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction

Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made for snow predictions at seasonal timescales (months to 2 years), crucial for regional agricultural decisions (e.g., plant choice and quantity). Seasonal predictions with climate models first took the form of El Niño predictions 3 decades ago, with hydroclimate predictions emerging more recently. While the field has been focused on single-season predictions (3 months or less), we are now poised to advance our predictions beyond this timeframe. Utilizing observations, climate indices, and a suite of global climate models, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal snowpack predictions and quantify the limits of predictive skill 8 month sin advance. This physically based dynamic system outperforms observation-based statistical predictions made on July 1 for March snowpack everywhere except the southern Sierra Nevada, a region where prediction skill is nonexistent for every predictor presently tested. Additionally, in the absence of externally forced negative trends in snowpack, narrow maritime mountain ranges with high hydroclimate variability pose a challenge for seasonal prediction in our present system; natural snowpack variability may inherently be unpredictable at this timescale. This work highlights present prediction system successes and gives cause for optimism for developing seasonal predictions for societal needs.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗