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USGS2011

Defining conservation priorities for freshwater fishes according to taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity

To date, the predominant use of systematic conservation planning has been to evaluate and conserve areas of high terrestrial biodiversity. Although studies in freshwater ecosystems have received recent attention, research has rarely considered the potential trade-offs between protecting different dimensions of biodiversity and the ecological processes that maintain diversity. We provide the first systematic prioritization for freshwaters (focusing on the highly threatened and globally distinct fish fauna of the Lower Colorado River Basin, USA) simultaneously considering scenarios of: taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity; contemporary threats to biodiversity (including interactions with nonnative species); and future climate change and human population growth. There was 75% congruence between areas of highest conservation priority for different aspects of biodiversity, suggesting that conservation efforts can concurrently achieve strong complementarity among all types of diversity. However, sizable fractions of the landscape were incongruent across conservation priorities for different diversity scenarios, underscoring the importance of considering multiple dimensions of biodiversity and highlighting catchments that contribute disproportionately to taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity in the region. Regions of projected human population growth were not concordant with conservation priorities; however, higher human population abundance will likely have indirect effects on native biodiversity by increasing demand for water. This will come in direct conflict with projected reductions in precipitation and warmer temperatures, which have substantial overlap with regions of high contemporary diversity. Native and endemic fishes in arid ecosystems are critically endangered by both current and future threats, but our results highlight the use of systematic conservation planning for the optimal allocation of limited resources that incorporates multiple and complementary conservation values describing taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2000

Dating of major normal fault systems using thermochronology: An example from the Raft River detachment, Basin and Range, western United States

Application of thermochronological techniques to major normal fault systems can resolve the timing of initiation and duration of extension, rates of motion on detachment faults, timing of ductile mylonite formation and passage of rocks through the crystal-plastic to brittle transition, and multiple events of extensional unroofing. Here we determine the above for the top-to-the-east Raft River detachment fault and shear zone by study of spatial gradients in 40 Ar/ 39 Ar and fission track cooling ages of footwall rocks and cooling histories and by comparison of cooling histories with deformation temperatures. Mica 40 Ar/ 39 Ar cooling ages indicate that extension-related cooling began at ∼25–20 Ma, and apatite fission track ages show that motion on the Raft River detachment proceeded until ∼7.4 Ma. Collective cooling curves show acceleration of cooling rates during extension, from 5–10°C/m.y. to rates in excess of 70–100°C/m.y. The apparent slip rate along the Raft River detachment, recorded in spatial gradients of apatite fission track ages, is 7 mm/yr between 13.5 and 7.4 Ma and is interpreted to record the rate of migration of a rolling hinge. Microstructural study of footwall mylonite indicates that deformation conditions were no higher than middle greenschist facies and that deformation occurred during cooling to cataclastic conditions. These data show that the shear zone and detachment fault represent a continuum produced by progressive exhumation and shearing during Miocene extension and preclude the possibility of a Mesozoic age for the ductile shear zone. Moderately rapid cooling in middle Eocene time likely records exhumation resulting from an older, oppositely rooted, extensional shear zone along the west side of the Grouse Creek, Raft River, and Albion Mountains.

Idaho, Utah↗
USGS1977

Application of a hydrometeorological model to the south-central Sierra Nevada of California

A hydrometeorological streamflow-prediction model (HM model) developed for the North Cascades of Washington has been tested in the south-central Sierra Nevada of California. Twenty-four drainages ranging in mean altitude from 770 to 3,160 metres, including several of the major ones such as those of the Kern, Kings, and Merced Rivers, were examined. Eight U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration precipitation stations were evaluated. Of these, three proved to be of significant value for nearly all the drainages used. Results are given for predictions on February 1, March 1, and April 1 of monthly runoff of five major drainages for the April-September season. Also demonstrated is the April 1 prediction of a daily hydrograph for the April-September season for 2 diverse years. The altitude distribution of storage and runoff, both observed and predicted, is determined by using several drainages with different area-altitude profiles. Results of this calculation for two drainages show that, on the average, approximately 50 percent of the April-July runoff originates above 2,800 m. The influence of subsequent precipitation on prediction accuracy is determined by relating prediction error and actual precipitation occurring after the prediction day. Results for three basins show that about 75 percent of the error of a January-September prediction on January 1 is due to precipitation occurring during the prediction season. Comparisons of prediction accuracy are made for five major drainages: the Kern River near Kernville; the Kings River below North Fork, near Trimmer (inflow to Pine Flat Dam); the Kings River at Piedra; the Merced River at Pohono Bridge, near Yosemite; and the Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, near Snelling. The accuracy of the HM model appears to be about 24 percent higher than existing operational methods in predicting the April-July runoff on April 1.

California↗
USGS2010

An initial SPARROW model of land use and in-stream controls on total organic carbon in streams of the conterminous United States

Watersheds play many important roles in the carbon cycle: (1) they are a site for both terrestrial and aquatic carbon dioxide (CO2) removal through photosynthesis; (2) they transport living and decomposing organic carbon in streams and groundwater; and (3) they store organic carbon for widely varying lengths of time as a function of many biogeochemical factors. Using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) model, along with long-term monitoring data on total organic carbon (TOC), this research quantitatively estimates the sources, transport, and fate of the long-term mean annual load of TOC in streams of the conterminous United States. The model simulations use surrogate measures of the major terrestrial and aquatic sources of organic carbon to estimate the long-term mean annual load of TOC in streams. The estimated carbon sources in the model are associated with four land uses (urban, cultivated, forest, and wetlands) and autochthonous fixation of carbon (stream photosynthesis). Stream photosynthesis is determined by reach-level application of an empirical model of stream chlorophyll based on total phosphorus concentration, and a mechanistic model of photosynthetic rate based on chlorophyll, average daily solar irradiance, water column light attenuation, and reach dimensions. It was found that the estimate of in-stream photosynthesis is a major contributor to the mean annual TOC load per unit of drainage area (that is, yield) in large streams, with a median share of about 60 percent of the total mean annual carbon load in streams with mean flows above 500 cubic feet per second. The interquartile range of the model predictions of TOC from in-stream photosynthesis is from 0.1 to 0.4 grams (g) carbon (C) per square meter (m-2) per day (day-1) for the approximately 62,000 stream reaches in the continental United States, which compares favorably with the reported literature range for net carbon fixation by phytoplankton in lakes and streams. The largest contributors per unit of drainage area to the mean annual stream TOC load among the terrestrial sources are, in descending order: wetlands, urban lands, mixed forests, agricultural lands, evergreen forests, and deciduous forests . It was found that the SPARROW model estimates of TOC contributions to streams associated with these land uses are also consistent with literature estimates. SPARROW model calibration results are used to simulate the delivery of TOC loads to the coastal areas of seven major regional drainages. It was found that stream photosynthesis is the largest source of the TOC yields ( about 50 percent) delivered to the coastal waters in two of the seven regional drainages (the Pacific Northwest and Mississippi-Atchafalaya-Red River basins ), whereas terrestrial sources are dominant (greater than 60 percent) in all other regions (North Atlantic, South Atlantic-Gulf, California, Texas-Gulf, and Great Lakes).

Conterminous United States↗
USGS2015

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2014 annual report

This is the seventh report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual activities conducted by the USGS for addressing specific management needs identified by WLCI partners. In FY2014, there were 26 projects, including a new one that was completed, two others that were also completed, and several that entered new phases or directions. The 26 projects fall into several categories: (1) synthesizing and analyzing existing data to identify current conditions on the landscape and using the data to develop models for projecting past and future landscape conditions; (2) monitoring indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms underlying wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. The new (completed) project was the development and publication of a public outreach piece for visitors of Fossil Butte National Monument. The final product was a USGS Fact Sheet that capitalized on previously collected elk-monitoring data to interpret the ecology of the Monument’s elk population and the importance of the Monument’s habitats to this highly visible wildlife species. One of the completed projects entailed developing and evaluating a synthetic approach to high-resolution satellite imagery for use in effectiveness monitoring, which culminated in a journal article. The other completed project was a coalescing of two similar tasks under data and information management that pertain to Web application development and the development of outreach and graphic products into a single integrated project that focuses on developing and maintaining/upgrading Web applications and other tools for visualizing, mapping, and using geospatial data. Major accomplishments for FY2014 included several publications, including Part B of an energy resources map that (with Part A) depicts coal, wind, oil, gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production in the WLCI region. Two published works associated with sage-grouse included a Wildlife Monograph on prioritizing species’ habitats across large landscapes, multiple seasons, and novel areas (using sage-grouse in Wyoming as an example), and a USGS Data Series report that includes both the data used in the habitat-prioritization models and the habitat prioritization models developed for sage-grouse. Our Science Team also published a framework for conducting large, collaborative projects that rely on geospatial data, and a paper that describes the efficacy of fusing satellite data collected at various resolutions for measuring and monitoring vegetation changes. These products are all invaluable tools for maximizing the efficiency and effectiveness of managing species of concern, conducting future landscape-scale assessments, and monitoring status and trends of landscape conditions. Other highlights of FY2014 included a renewed effort to gather and analyze wildlife and habitat status and trend data for the WLCI Interagency Monitoring Database (IAMD) to assess long-term trends and cumulative effects associated with land-use and climate changes. Water-monitoring efforts included drilling four new groundwater-monitoring wells in the Green and New Fork River basins near the proposed Normally Pressured Lance Formation energy development, and continued data collection at established water-monitoring sites. Three additional wells were sampled as part of the Wyoming Groundwater Monitoring Network, bringing the total to 19 Network wells sampled in the WLCI region since 2010. Combined, these water-monitoring efforts can help to identify potential changes in water quality or levels that may result from land-use changes. Major terrestrial monitoring accomplishments included processing satellite imagery from 1985−2010 to develop a historical perspective of long-term vegetation changes, which can serve as a basis for monitoring current and future trends in sagebrush steppe. Such data are crucial tools for agencies tasked with sage-grouse management and conservation. The USGS WLCI Science Team also continued monitoring and testing methods for evaluating WLCI habitat treatments designed to promote aspen regeneration and enhance sage-grouse habitat, and to assess how those treatments influence invasive species distributions and ungulate herbivory. Highlights included analyzing field data collected to elucidate the relationships between sage-grouse habitat use and the proximity of energy infrastructure, and using new instruments to measure productivity responses of aspen woodlands to various factors. Numerous FY2014 accomplishments specifically addressed agency needs to manage and conserve Wyoming’s wildlife species of concern. A pygmy rabbit habitat model and Wyoming distribution map were completed to identify factors associated with rabbit habitat occupancy. Previous work on sage-grouse population dynamics was expanded to better understand the factors that drive long-term viability of sage-grouse populations and to develop a tool that helps to identify key factors limiting sage-grouse persistence in Wyoming. Field work and data analyses continued for elucidating the relationships between sagebrush songbird abundance and productivity, the intensity of energy development, and community dynamics of nest predators. For the mule deer study, mixed mountain shrublands important to migrating and wintering mule deer were mapped and delivered to WLCI partners. Additionally, the relationships between energy development and crucial winter habitat for mule deer were evaluated, and a new phase of work was implemented to better understand relationships between plant phenology and mule deer migration movements. Finally, initial analyses of data collected to evaluate fish-community composition in relation to habitat quality indicate that water quality, as measured by concentrations of hydrocarbons, water temperature, and others parameters, has been diminished in subwatersheds with higher levels of energy development. Overall, the outcomes and products of these wildlife studies contribute significantly to the information and tools needed for addressing effects of land-use changes on Wyoming’s species of concern. Finally, capabilities of the WLCI Web site and the USGS ScienceBase infrastructure were maintained and upgraded to help ensure access to and efficient use of all the WLCI data, products, assessment tools, and outreach materials that have been developed. Of particular note is the completion of three Web applications developed for mapping (1) the 1900−2008 progression of oil and gas development;(2) the predicted distributions of Wyoming’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need; and (3) the locations of coal and wind energy production, sage-grouse distribution and core management areas, and alternative routes for transmission lines within the WLCI region. Collectively, these applications tools provide WLCI planners and managers with powerful tools for better understanding the distributions of wildlife species and potential alternatives for energy development.

Wyoming↗
USGS2010

An approach for modeling sediment budgets in supply-limited rivers

Reliable predictions of sediment transport and river morphology in response to variations in natural and human-induced drivers are necessary for river engineering and management. Because engineering and management applications may span a wide range of space and time scales, a broad spectrum of modeling approaches has been developed, ranging from suspended-sediment "rating curves" to complex three-dimensional morphodynamic models. Suspended sediment rating curves are an attractive approach for evaluating changes in multi-year sediment budgets resulting from changes in flow regimes because they are simple to implement, computationally efficient, and the empirical parameters can be estimated from quantities that are commonly measured in the field (i.e., suspended sediment concentration and water discharge). However, the standard rating curve approach assumes a unique suspended sediment concentration for a given water discharge. This assumption is not valid in rivers where sediment supply varies enough to cause changes in particle size or changes in areal coverage of sediment on the bed; both of these changes cause variations in suspended sediment concentration for a given water discharge. More complex numerical models of hydraulics and morphodynamics have been developed to address such physical changes of the bed. This additional complexity comes at a cost in terms of computations as well as the type and amount of data required for model setup, calibration, and testing. Moreover, application of the resulting sediment-transport models may require observations of bed-sediment boundary conditions that require extensive (and expensive) observations or, alternatively, require the use of an additional model (subject to its own errors) merely to predict the bed-sediment boundary conditions for use by the transport model. In this paper we present a hybrid approach that combines aspects of the rating curve method and the more complex morphodynamic models. Our primary objective was to develop an approach complex enough to capture the processes related to sediment supply limitation but simple enough to allow for rapid calculations of multi-year sediment budgets. The approach relies on empirical relations between suspended sediment concentration and discharge but on a particle size specific basis and also tracks and incorporates the particle size distribution of the bed sediment. We have applied this approach to the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam (GCD), a reach that is particularly suited to such an approach because it is substantially sediment supply limited such that transport rates are strongly dependent on both water discharge and sediment supply. The results confirm the ability of the approach to simulate the effects of supply limitation, including periods of accumulation and bed fining as well as erosion and bed coarsening, using a very simple formulation. Although more empirical in nature than standard one-dimensional morphodynamic models, this alternative approach is attractive because its simplicity allows for rapid evaluation of multi-year sediment budgets under a range of flow regimes and sediment supply conditions, and also because it requires substantially less data for model setup and use.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS1995

Lake trout rehabilitation in Lake Huron

Efforts to restore lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) in Lake Huron after their collapse in the 1940s were underway in the early 1970s with completion of the first round oflampricide applications in tributary streams and the stocking of several genotypes. We assess results of rehabilitation and establish a historical basis for comparison by quantifying the catch of spawning lake trout from Michigan waters in 1929-1932. Sixty-eight percent of this catch occurred in northern waters (MH-1) and most of the rest (15%) was from remote reefs in the middle of the main basin. Sea lampreys ( Petromyzon mari-nus ) increased in the early 1980s in the main basin and depressed spawning populations of lake trout. This increase was especially severe in northern waters and appeared to be associated with untreated populations in the St. Marys River. Excessive commercial fishing stemming from unresolved treaty rights also contributed to loss of spawning fish in northern Michigan waters. Seneca-strain lake trout did not appear to be attacked by sea lampreys until they reached a size > 532 mm. At sizes > 632 mm, Seneca trout were 40-fold more abundant than the Marquette strain in matched-planting experiments. Natural reproduction past the fry stage has occurred in Thunder Bay and South Bay, but prospects for self-sustaining populations of lake trout in the main basin are poor because sea lampreys are too abundant, only one side of the basin is stocked, and stocking is deferred to allow commercial gillnetting in areas where most of the spawning occurred historically. Backcross lake trout, a lake trout x splake ( S. fontinalis x S. namaycush ) hybrid, did not reproduce in Georgian Bay, but this genotype is being replaced with pure-strain lake trout, whose early performance appears promising.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS1976

Hydrologic evaluation of salinity control and reclamation projects in the Indus Plain, Pakistan--A summary

This report summarizes the observations and findings of a team of four specialists from the U.S. Geological Survey assigned to Pakistan under the auspices of the U.S. Agency for International Development during May to August 1972 for a hydrologic evaluation of Salinity Control and Reclamation Projects in the Indus Plain Individual members of the team undertook comprehensive studies related to climatology, surface-water hydrology, and the canal system; streamflow and sediment yields of the rivers; computer applications to hydrologic data; aquifer characteristics; hydrologic evaluation of Salinity Control and Reclamation Projects (SCARPs); tubewell performance; hydrology of shallow versus deep tubewells; well and well-screen design in the Indus Plain; evaluation of observed and anticipated trends in both private and public tubewell development; evaluation of water-quality programs, data analysis, and records, and computer coding of special water-quality data; and evaluation of water-level data, well discharge and specific-capacity tests and aquifer tests. The reclamation program, by pumping from tubewells, has been notably successful in lowering the water table, in providing supplemental water for irrigation and for leaching of salinized soils, and in improving crop production. Some changes in water quality have been observed in SCARP-I and the Mona Scheme of SCARP-II, but these have not as yet (1972) significantly affected the utility of the water for irrigation. Problems associated with reclamation include control of deterioration in performance of tubewells and their rehabilitation, local brackish or saline-water encroachment, and maintenance of a favorable salt balance in the ground-water system. Rapid and as yet (1972) unregulated growth of shallow private tubewell development in the past decade has introduced complicating factors to the reclamation planning of the early 1960's which had emphasized public tubewell development through the SCARP program. In comparing shallow (0-200 feet) with deep (200-400 feet} tubewell development, it is concluded that long-term response of the water table is the same, whether many shallow wells of small capacity or fewer deeper wells of large capacity pump the same total volume of water in the same area. Moreover, it is concluded that there is no definite advantage for either type of pumping regime with respect to water quality. Utilization of the Punjab aquifer could be greatly enhanced by recharge of high-quality water diverted from the Chenab and Jhelum Rivers to the Ravi and Sutlej Rivers by way of the link and irrigation canals during periods of surplus flow. Recharge to the aquifer could also be improved by diversion of high-quality water from the Chenab and the Jhelum to natural nalas and other surface drainageways during periods of surplus flow. Such recharge would be of much better quality than water leaching downward from irrigated fields. Continued monitoring of the hydrologic system and research on problems engendered by reclamation are essential to the viability of the SCARP program and related water-resources development in the Indus River Basin.

Water Supply Paper↗
USGS2026

Post-wildfire water quality and aquatic ecosystem response in the U.S. Pacific Northwest: science and monitoring gaps

An increase in the occurrence of large, high severity wildfires in the western Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA, has created an urgent need for science to better inform forest management and policy decisions to maintain source water quality in the region. The western PNW faces similar challenges to other regions with shifting wildfire regimes and large population centers reliant on surface water from forested catchments. However, the uniquely wet and highly seasonal climate of the western PNW suggests that findings from other, more frequently burned regions may not be directly applicable. To identify science, monitoring, and management gaps and opportunities in the western PNW, this review was collaboratively undertaken by academics, non-government and industry representatives, and local, state, and federal government entities who have been working together since the 2020 Labor Day fires in Oregon. Focusing on Oregon and Washington, we found that monitoring networks for continuous water quantity and quality cover much of the state with greater representation in western U.S. ecoregions, but few studies have analyzed and published these data to capture and communicate the post-wildfire response. Approximately half of the streamgages in Oregon and Washington record major water quality parameters, and hundreds of sites in the area have discrete sampling for a wide range of water quality constituents. Still, numerous gaps exist in understanding the short- and long-term impacts of wildfire on hydrology, water chemistry, including pH and dissolved oxygen, mobilization of metals, aquatic ecosystems, and downstream drinking water treatment. Collective action to further collect, analyze, interpret, and publish the key data could help improve our understanding of post-wildfire water quality impacts in this and other increasingly wildfire-affected regions.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2021

Nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations in the Maumee River and tributaries during 2019 rain-induced fallow conditions

Above average precipitation from October 2018 through July 2019 in the Maumee River (R.) Basin resulted in 29% of cropland left fallow, providing a glimpse of potential effects from decreased nutrient application. Ongoing monitoring at 15 water-quality sites on the Maumee R. upstream from Defiance enabled comparison with 2017, which was hydrologically similar to 2019 in precipitation and streamflow. In 2019, nitrate (as nitrogen; NO 3 -N) for March-July was significantly less than previous years (2015–2018), but the response for phosphorus (P) was more complicated. Relative to 2017, total P (TP) was lower at 7 of 15 sites, but higher at 7, reflecting higher suspended sediment (SS). Dissolved P (DP) was generally lower, but less different than NO 3 ; DP was higher at 3 sites. DP-P:NO 3 -N was generally higher in 2019, DP-P:TP was lower, and there was less TP relative to SS. Overall, less P was in the system in 2019. However smaller streams showed a large range of difference between 2019 and 2017 for all constituents, indicating variability in land management and physiography. In contrast, all constituents were lower in 2019 in larger (>5000 km 2 ) streams, including the Maumee R. near Defiance, where the difference in NO 3 (−37%) exceeded that for TP (−16%), DP (−10%), and SS (−20%). Differences in these relations among N, P, and SS indicate that P was available from legacy sources that are more difficult to distinguish during typical agricultural production years and that some material from 2019 was stored in the system upstream from the largest sites.

Indiana, Ohio↗
USGS2015

Estimation of unaltered daily mean streamflow at ungaged streams of New York, excluding Long Island, water years 1961-2010

The lakes, rivers, and streams of New York State provide an essential water resource for the State. The information provided by time series hydrologic data is essential to understanding ways to promote healthy instream ecology and to strengthen the scientific basis for sound water management decision making in New York. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with The Nature Conservancy and the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, has developed the New York Streamflow Estimation Tool to estimate a daily mean hydrograph for the period from October 1, 1960, to September 30, 2010, at ungaged locations across the State. The New York Streamflow Estimation Tool produces a complete estimated daily mean time series from which daily flow statistics can be estimated. In addition, the New York Streamflow Estimation Tool provides a means for quantitative flow assessments at ungaged locations that can be used to address the objectives of the Clean Water Act—to restore and maintain the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of the Nation’s waters. The New York Streamflow Estimation Tool uses data from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow network for selected streamgages in New York (excluding Long Island) and surrounding States with shared hydrologic boundaries, and physical and climate basin characteristics to estimate the natural unaltered streamflow at ungaged stream locations. The unaltered streamflow is representative of flows that are minimally altered by regulation, diversion, or mining, and other anthropogenic activities. With the streamflow network data, flow-duration exceedance probability equations were developed to estimate unaltered streamflow exceedance probabilities at an ungaged location using a methodology that equates streamflow as a percentile from a flow-duration curve for a particular day at a hydrologically similar reference streamgage with streamflow as a percentile from the flow-duration curve for the same day at an ungaged location. The reference streamgage is selected using map correlation, a geostatistical method in which variogram models are developed that correlate streamflow at one streamgage with streamflows at all other locations in the study area. Regression equations used to predict 17 flow-duration exceedance probabilities were developed to estimate the flow-duration curves at ungaged locations for New York using geographic information system-derived basin characteristics. A graphical user interface, with an integrated spreadsheet summary report, has been developed to estimate and display the daily mean streamflows and statistics and to evaluate different water management or water withdrawal scenarios with the estimated monthly data. This package of regression equations, U.S. Geological Survey streamgage data, and spreadsheet application produces an interactive tool to estimate an unaltered daily streamflow hydrograph and streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in New York. Among other uses, the New York Streamflow Estimation Tool can assist water managers with permitting water withdrawals, implementing habitat protection, estimating contaminant loads, or determining the potential affect from chemical spills.

New York↗
USGS2016

The 2016 groundwater flow model for Dane County, Wisconsin

A new groundwater flow model for Dane County, Wisconsin, replaces an earlier model developed in the 1990s by the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey (WGNHS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This modeling study was conducted cooperatively by the WGNHS and the USGS with funding from the Capital Area Regional Planning Commission (CARPC). Although the overall conceptual model of the groundwater system remains largely unchanged, the incorporation of newly acquired high-quality datasets, recent research findings, and improved modeling and calibration techniques have led to the development of a more detailed and sophisticated model representation of the groundwater system. The new model is three-dimensional and transient, and conceptualizes the county’s hydrogeology as a 12-layer system including all major unlithified and bedrock hydrostratigraphic units and two high-conductivity horizontal fracture zones. Beginning from the surface down, the model represents the unlithified deposits as two distinct model layers (1 and 2). A single layer (3) simulates the Ordovician sandstone and dolomite of the Sinnipee, Ancell, and Prairie du Chien Groups. Sandstone of the Jordan Formation (layer 4) and silty dolostone of the St. Lawrence Formation (layer 5) each comprise separate model layers. The underlying glauconitic sandstone of the Tunnel City Group makes up three distinct layers: an upper aquifer (layer 6), a fracture feature (layer 7), and a lower aquifer (layer 8). The fracture layer represents a network of horizontal bedding-plane fractures that serve as a preferential pathway for groundwater flow. The model simulates the sandstone of the Wonewoc Formation as an upper aquifer (layer 9) with a bedding-plane fracture feature (layer 10) at its base. The Eau Claire aquitard (layer 11) includes shale beds within the upper portion of the Eau Claire Formation. This layer, along with overlying bedrock units, is mostly absent in the preglacially eroded valleys along the Yahara River valley and in northeastern Dane County. Layer 12 represents the Mount Simon sandstone as the lowermost model layer. It directly overlies the Precambrian crystalline basement rock, whose top surface forms the lower boundary of the model. The model uses the USGS MODFLOW-NWT finite-difference code, a standalone version of MODFLOW-2005 that incorporates the Newton (NWT) solver. MODFLOW-NWT improves the handling of unconfined conditions by smoothing the transition from wet to dry cells. The model explicitly simulates groundwater–surface-water interaction with streamflow routing and lake-level fluctuation. Model input included published and unpublished hydrogeologic data from recent estimates of aquifer hydraulic conductivities. A spatial groundwater recharge distribution was obtained from a recent GIS-based, soil-water-balance model for Dane County. Groundwater withdrawals from pumping were simulated for 572 wells across the entire model domain, which includes Dane County and portions of seven neighboring counties—Columbia, Dodge, Green, Iowa, Jefferson, Lafayette, and Rock. These wells withdrew an average of 60 million gallons per day (mgd) over the 5-year period from 2006 through 2010. Within Dane County, 385 wells were simulated with an average withdrawal rate of 52 mgd. Model calibration used the parameter estimation code PEST, and calibration targets included heads, stream and spring flows, lake levels, and borehole flows. Steady-state calibration focused on the period 2006 through 2010; the transient calibration focused on the 7-week drought period from late May through July 2012. This model represents a significant step forward from previous work because of its finer grid resolution, improved hydrostratigraphic discretization, transient capabilities, and more sophisticated representation of surface-water features and multi-aquifer wells. Potential applications of the model include evaluation of potential sites for and impacts of new high-capacity wells, development of wellhead protection plans, evaluating the effects of changing land use and climate on groundwater, and quantifying the relationships between groundwater and surface water.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2011

Geographic distribution of the mid-continent population of sandhill cranes and related management applications

The Mid-continent Population (MCP) of sandhill cranes ( Grus canadensis ) is widely hunted in North America and is separated into the Gulf Coast Subpopulation and Western Subpopulation for management purposes. Effective harvest management of the MCP requires detailed knowledge of breeding distribution of subspecies and subpopulations, chronology of their use of fall staging areas and wintering grounds, and exposure to and harvest from hunting. To address these information needs, we tagged 153 sandhill cranes with Platform Transmitting Terminals (PTTs) during 22 February–12 April 1998–2003 in the Central and North Platte River valleys of south-central Nebraska. We monitored PTT-tagged sandhill cranes, hereafter tagged cranes, from their arrival to departure from breeding grounds, during their fall migration, and throughout winter using the Argos satellite tracking system. The tracking effort yielded 74,041 useable locations over 49,350 tag days; median duration of tracking of individual cranes was 352 days and 73 cranes were tracked >12 months. Genetic sequencing of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from blood samples taken from each of our random sample of tagged cranes indicated 64% were G. c. canadensis and 34% were Grus canadensis tabida . Tagged cranes during the breeding season settled in northern temperate, subarctic, and arctic North America (U.S. [23%, n = 35], Canada [57%, n = 87]) and arctic regions of northeast Asia (Russia [20%, n = 31]). Distribution of tagged cranes by breeding affiliation was as follows: Western Alaska–Siberia (WA–S, 42 ± 4% [SE]), northern Canada–Nunavut (NC–N, 21 ± 4%), west-central Canada–Alaska (WC–A, 23 ± 4%) and East-central Canada–Minnesota (EC–M, 14 ± 3%). All tagged cranes returned to the same breeding affiliation used during the previous year with a median distance of 1.60 km (range: 0.08–7.7 km, n = 53) separating sites used in year 1 and year 2. Fall staging occurred primarily in central and western Saskatchewan (69%), North Dakota (16%), southwestern Manitoba (10%), and northwestern Minnesota (3%). Space-use sharing indices showed that except for NC–N and WC–A birds, probability of finding a crane from one breeding affiliation within the home range of another breeding affiliation was low during fall staging. Tagged cranes from WC–A and EC–M breeding affiliations, on average, spent 25 and 20 days, respectively, longer on fall staging areas in the northern plains than did WA–S and NC–N birds. Cranes in the NC–N, WA–S, and WC–A affiliations spent 99%, 74%, and 64%, respectively, of winter in western Texas in Hunting Zone A; EC–M cranes spent 83% of winter along the Texas Gulf Coast in Hunting Zone C. Tagged cranes that settled within the breeding range of the Gulf Coast Subpopulation spent 28% and 42% of fall staging and winter within the range of the Western Subpopulation, indicating sufficient exchange of birds to potentially limit effectiveness of MCP harvest management. Harvests of EC–M and WC–A cranes during 1998–2003 were disproportionately high to their estimated numbers in the MCP, suggesting more conservative harvest strategies may be required for these subpopulations in the future, and for sandhill cranes to occupy major parts of their historical breeding range in the Prairie Pothole Region. Exceptionally high philopatry of MCP cranes of all 4 subpopulations to breeding sites coupled with strong linkages between crane breeding distribution, and fall staging areas and wintering grounds, provide managers guidance for targeting MCP crane harvest to meet management goals. Sufficient temporal or spatial separation exists among the 4 subpopulations on fall staging areas and wintering grounds to allow harvest to be targeted at the subpopulation level in all states and provinces (and most hunting zones within states and provinces) when conditions warrant. Knowledge gained from our study provides decision-makers in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Russia with improved guidance for developing sound harvest regulations, focusing conservation efforts, and generating collaborative efforts among these nations on sandhill crane research and management to meet mutually important goals.

Nebraska↗
USGS2017

Assessment of adult pallid sturgeon fish condition, Lower Missouri River—Application of new information to the Missouri River Recovery Program

During spring 2015, Nebraska Game and Parks Commission (NGPC) biologists noted that pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) were in poor condition during sampling associated with the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Project and NGPC’s annual pallid sturgeon broodstock collection effort. These observations prompted concerns that reduced fish condition could compromise reproductive health and population growth of pallid sturgeon. There was a further concern that compromised condition could possibly be linked to U.S. Army Corps of Engineers management actions and increase jeopardy to the species. An evaluation request was made to the Missouri River Recovery Program and the Effects Analysis Team was chartered to evaluate the issue. Data on all Missouri River pallid sturgeon captures were requested and received from the National Pallid Sturgeon Database. All data were examined for completeness and accuracy; 12,053 records of captures between 200 millimeters fork length (mm FL) and 1,200 mm FL were accepted. We analyzed condition using (1) the condition formula (Kn) from Shuman and others (2011); (2) a second Kn formulation derived from the 12,053 records (hereafter referred to as “Alternative Kn”); and (3) an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) approach that did not rely on a Kn formulation. The Kn data were analyzed using group (average annual Kn) and individual (percentage in low, normal, and robust conditions) approaches. Using the Shuman Kn formulation, annual mean Kn was fairly static from 2005 to 2011 (although always higher in the upper basin), declined from 2012 to 2015, then remained either static (lower basin) or increasing (upper basin) in 2016. Under the Alternative Kn formulation, the upper basin showed no decline in Kn, whereas the lower basin displayed the same trend as the Shuman Kn formulation. Using both formulations, the individual approach revealed a more complex situation; at the same times and locations that there are fish in poor condition, there are nearby fish in normal or robust condition. The ANCOVA approach revealed that fish condition at size changed between 400 and 600 mm and that some of the apparent trend in low condition was caused by differences in sample size across the size range of the population (that is, greater catch of intermediate-sized fish compared to large fish). We examined basin, year, origin (hatchery compared to wild), segment, and size class for effects on condition and concluded that, since 2012, there has been an increase in the percentage of pallid sturgeon in low condition. There are basin, year, and segment effects; origin and size class do not seem to have an effect. The lower basin, in particular segment 9 (Platte River to Kansas River), had a high percentage of low-condition fish. Within the segment, there were bend-level effects, but the bend effect was not spatially contiguous. We concluded that existing data confirm concerns about declining fish condition, especially in the segments between Sioux City, Iowa, and Kansas City, Missouri. Although the evidence is strong that fish condition has been in decline from 2011 to 2015, additional analysis of individual fish histories may provide more confidence in this conclusion; such analysis was beyond the scope of this effort but is part of our recommendations. The most recent data in 2016 indicate that decline of condition may have leveled off; however, the length of record is insufficient to determine whether recent declines are within the background range of variation. We recommend that monitoring of fish condition should be increased and enhanced with additional health metrics. We also recommend that, should condition continue to decline, processes are deployed to bring low-condition adult fish into the hatchery to improve nutrition and condition. We could not determine the cause of declining fish condition with available data, but we compiled information on several dominant hypotheses in two main categories: inter- or intraspecific competition for resources and habitat conditions. Data are insufficient to indicate a specific causation or solution, and it is possible that multiple causes apply. We make recommendations for additional research that can be pursued to address uncertainties in trends in fish health as well as potential causes.

Missouri River↗
USGS2011

Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state’s flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $ 300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $ 400 billion, of which $ 20 to $ 30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $ 325 billion in addition to the $ 400 billion property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $ 725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and California Emergency Management Agency guidance connecting federal, state and local natural hazards mapping and mitigation planning under the National Flood Insurance Plan and Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000. (6) Common messages to educate the public about the risk of such an extreme disaster as the ARkStorm scenario could be developed and consistently communicated to facilitate policy formulation and transformation. These impacts were estimated by a team of 117 scientists, engineers, public-policy experts, insurance experts, and employees of the affected lifelines. In many aspects the ARkStorm produced new science, such as the model of coastal inundation. The products of the ARkStorm are intended for use by emergency planners, utility operators, policymakers, and others to inform preparedness plans and to enhance resiliency.

California↗
USGS2006

Reserve Growth in Oil Fields of West Siberian Basin, Russia

Although reserve (or field) growth has proven to be an important factor contributing to new reserves in mature petroleum basins, it is still a poorly understood phenomenon. Limited studies show that the magnitude of reserve growth is controlled by several major factors, including (1) the reserve booking and reporting requirements in each country, (2) improvements in reservoir characterization and simulation, (3) application of enhanced oil recovery techniques, and (4) the discovery of new and extensions of known pools in discovered fields. Various combinations of these factors can affect the estimates of proven reserves in particular fields and may dictate repeated estimations of reserves during a field's life. This study explores the reserve growth in the 42 largest oil fields in the West Siberian Basin, which contain about 55 percent of the basin's total oil reserves. The West Siberian Basin occupies a vast swampy plain between the Ural Mountains and the Yenisey River, and extends offshore into the Kara Sea; it is the richest petroleum province in Russia. About 600 oil and gas fields with original reserves of 144 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and more than 1,200 trillion cubic feet of gas (TCFG) have been discovered. The principal oil reserves and most of the oil fields are in the southern half of the basin, whereas the northern half contains mainly gas reserves. Sedimentary strata in the basin consist of Upper Triassic through Tertiary clastic rocks. Most oil is produced from Neocomian (Lower Cretaceous) marine to deltaic sandstone reservoirs, although substantial oil reserves are also in the marine Upper Jurassic and continental to paralic Lower to Middle Jurassic sequences. The majority of oil fields are in structural traps, which are gentle, platform-type anticlines with closures ranging from several tens of meters to as much as 150 meters (490 feet). Fields producing from stratigraphic traps are generally smaller except for the giant Talin field which contains oil in Jurassic river-valley sandstones. Principal source rocks are organic-rich marine shales of the Volgian (uppermost Jurassic) Bazhenov Formation, which is 30-50 m (98- 164 feet) thick. Bazhenov-derived oils are mostly of medium gravity, and contain 0.8-1.3 percent sulfur and 2-5 percent paraffin. Oils in the Lower to Middle Jurassic clastics were sourced from lacustrine and estuarine shales of the Toarcian Togur Bed. These oils are medium to low gravity, with low sulfur (less than 0.25 percent) and high paraffin (commonly to 10 percent) contents. Among the 42 fields analyzed for reserve growth, 30 fields are located in the Middle Ob region, which includes the Samotlor field with reserves of more than 25 BBO and the Fedorov field with reserves of about 5 BBO. Data used in the study include year of discovery, year of first production, annual and cumulative production, and remaining reserves reported by Russian reserve categories (A+B+C1 and C2) in January of each year. Correlation of these Russian resource categories to U.S. categories of the Society of Petroleum Engineers classification is complex and somewhat uncertain. Reserve growth in oil fields of West Siberia was calculated using a newly developed Group Growth method, which requires that the total reserve (proven reserve plus cumulative production) of individual fields with an equal length of reserve record be added together starting with discovery year or the first production year. Then the annual growth factor (AGF), which is the ratio of total reserves of two consecutive years, is calculated for all years. Once AGFs have been calculated, the cumulative growth factor (CGF) is calculated by multiplying the AGFs of all the previous years. The CGF data are used to develop reserve growth models. The West Siberian oil fields show a 13-fold reserve growth 20 years after the discovery year and only about a 2-fold growth after the first production year. This difference is attributed to extensive exploration and field delineation activities between the discovery and the first production years. Because of uncertainty in the length of evaluation time and in reported reserves during this initial period, reserve growth based on the first production year is more reliable for model development. However, reserve growth models based both on discovery year and first production year show rapid growth in the first few years and slower growth in the following years. In contrast, the reserve growth patterns for the conterminous United States and offshore Gulf of Mexico show a steady reserve increase throughout the productive lives of the fields. The different reserve booking requirements and the lack of capital investment for improved reservoir management and production technologies in West Siberian fields relative to U.S. fields are the probable causes for the difference in growth patterns. Reserve growth models based on the first production year predict that the reserve growth potential in the 42 largest oil fields of West Siberia over a five-year period (1998-2003) ranges from 270-330 million barrels or 0.34-0.42 percent per year. For a similar five-year period (1996-2001), models for the conterminous United States predict a growth of 0.54-0.75 percent per year. This abstract presents the contents of a poster prepared for the AAPG Hedberg Research Conference on Understanding World Oil Resources, November 12-17, 2006 - Colorado Springs, Colorado. A paper 'Reserve Growth in Oil Fields of West Siberian Basin, Russia' was published in Natural Resources Research, v. 12, no. 2, June, 2003.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2005

Occurrence of fecal-indicator bacteria and protocols for identification of fecal-contamination sources in selected reaches of the West Branch Brandywine Creek, Chester County, Pennsylvania

The presence of fecal-indicator bacteria indicates the potential presence of pathogens originating from the fecal matter of warm-blooded animals. These pathogens are responsible for numerous human diseases ranging from common diarrhea to meningitis and polio. The detection of fecal-indicator bacteria and interpretation of the resultant data are, therefore, of great importance to water-resource managers. Current (2005) techniques used to assess fecal contamination within the fluvial environment primarily assess samples collected from the water column, either as grab samples or as depth- and (or) width-integrated samples. However, current research indicates approximately 99 percent of all bacteria within nature exist as attached, or sessile, bacteria. Because of this condition, most current techniques for the detection of fecal contamination, which utilize bacteria, assess only about 1 percent of the total bacteria within the fluvial system and are, therefore, problematic. Evaluation of the environmental factors affecting the occurrence and distribution of bacteria within the fluvial system, as well as the evaluation and modification of alternative approaches that effectively quantify the larger population of sessile bacteria within fluvial sediments, will present water-resource managers with more effective tools to assess, prevent, and (or) eliminate sources of fecal contamination within pristine and impaired watersheds. Two stream reaches on the West Branch Brandywine Creek in the Coatesville, Pa., region were studied between September 2002 and August 2003. The effects of sediment particle size, climatic conditions, aquatic growth, environmental chemistry, impervious surfaces, sediment and soil filtration, and dams on observed bacteria concentrations were evaluated. Alternative approaches were assessed to better detect geographic sources of fecal contamination including the use of turbidity as a surrogate for bacteria, the modification and implementation of sandbag bacteria samplers, and the use of optical brighteners. For the purposes of this report, sources of bacteria were defined as geographic locations where elevated concentrations of bacteria are observed within, or expected to enter, the main branch of the West Branch Brandywine Creek. Biologic sources (for example, waterfowl) were noted where applicable; however, no specific study of biologic sources (such as bacterial source tracking) was conducted. Data indicated that specific bacterial populations within fluvial sediments could be related to specific particle-size ranges. This relation is likely the result of the reduced porosity and permeability associated with finer sediments and the ability of specific bacteria to tolerate particular environments. Escherichia coli (E. coli) showed a higher median concentration (2,160 colonies per gram of saturated sediment) in the 0.125 to 0.5-millimeter size range of natural sediments than in other ranges, and enterococcus bacteria showed a higher median concentration (61,830 colonies per gram of saturated sediment) in the 0.062 to 0.25-millimeter size range of natural sediments than in other ranges. There were insufficient data to assess the particle-size relation to fecal coliform bacteria and (or) fecal streptococcus bacteria. Climatic conditions were shown to affect bacteria concentrations in both the water column and fluvial sediments. Drought conditions in 2002 resulted in lower overall bacteria concentrations than the more typically wet year of 2003. E. coli concentrations in fluvial sediment along the Coatesville study reach in 2002 had a median concentration of 92 colonies per gram of saturated sediment; in 2003, the median concentration had risen to 4,752 colonies per gram of saturated sediment. Symbiotic relations between bacteria and aquatic growth were likely responsible for increased bacteria concentrations observed within an impoundment area on the Coatesville study reach. This reach showed evidence of elevated aquatic growth and sharp increases in E. coli concentrations from upstream to downstream through the impoundment area in both 2002 and 2003. In 2003, E. coli concentrations within the waters column increased from 940 colonies per 100 milliliters upstream to 6,000 colonies per 100 milliliters at the dam crest. Given that these bacteria likely resulted from natural bacterial regrowth, the use of E. coli as an indicator of fecal contamination was severely impaired. Variable environmental conditions along the West Branch Brandywine Creek made the common field-chemical parameters of specific conductance, temperature, pH, and dissolved oxygen ineffective and (or) impossible to use for the determination of inputs of fecal contamination. Extreme variations in chemical gradients commonly were related to the urban/industrial signature of the watershed. For example, during base-flow sampling in 2002, specific-conductance values exceeding 1,000 microsiemens per centimeter observed in effluent from a local steel mill. This effluent raised the specific conductance within the West Branch Brandywine from just above 200 microsiemens per centimeter upstream from the outfall to just below 500 microsiemens per centimeter downstream from the outfall. These chemical gradients also, likely, had an effect on the initial colonization of bacteria, the formation of biofilms, and the persistence of certain types of bacteria along the study reach. Data collected in 2003 indicated that nutrients increased during both base-flow and stormflow conditions along the Coatesville study reach. For example, during base-flow sampling in 2003, 20 pounds of phosphorus was shown to enter the West Branch Brandywine Creek along the Coatesville study reach. The largest contributors to this base-flow nutrient load were likely two wastewater-treatment facilities adjacent to the study reach. During stormflow sampling in 2003, 480 pounds of phosphorus was shown to enter the West Branch Brandywine Creek along the Coatesville study reach. Data, along with other research, indicated the largest contributor to this stormflow nutrient load was likely remobilized sediment originating from a large dam impoundment. These elevated nutrient concentrations were considered sufficient to promote accelerated aquatic growth along the reach. Data collected in 2003 showed that wastewater constituents entered the West Branch Brandywine Creek largely from urban storm-sewer systems. Samples from the primary storm sewer for the city of Coatesville had detections for 20 of 69 wastewater constituents. These constituents included both strong and weak indicators of fecal contamination and generally indicated the storm-sewer system along the Coatesville study reach was a likely source of fecal-indicator bacteria and fecal contamination under base-flow conditions. By comparison, 5 constituents were detected in samples from the upstream end of the reach, and 10 constituents were detected in samples from the downstream end of the reach. During stormflow, numbers of detections were similar along the entire length of the study reach-five in samples from the upstream end, eight in samples from the center of the reach, and seven in samples from the downstream end of the reach. These data indicate that point sources (such as culverts and pipes, septic systems, and wastewater-treatment facilities) are not likely the origin of bacteria contamination during stormflow. The bacteria concentrations observed during stormflow events probably result from remobilized sessile bacteria stored within fluvial sediments. In this case, these bacteria should not be considered indicators of current fecal contamination. Impervious surfaces were found to increase bacteria concentrations along the West Branch Brandywine Creek because contaminated runoff from impervious areas generally flows into, and is concentrated within, the confines of the local storm-sewer system. During 2002, storm-sewer outfalls draining impervious areas were associated with all major locations of elevated bacterial concentrations (greater than 1,200 colonies per gram of saturated sediment) in fluvial sediments. During 2003, wetter conditions and overall bacteria concentrations higher than in 2002 resulted in point sources of bacterial contamination becoming less pronounced; however, the storm-sewer system, draining adjacent impervious areas, was still observed to be the primary source of bacteria along the reach. Where stormwater and (or) other runoff from these areas was allowed to infiltrate and (or) flow through wetland and riparian buffers, bacteria concentrations were not observed to be elevated above background levels commonly observed throughout similar areas of the same reach. Two run-of-the-river dams along the Coatesville study reach were evaluated for their effects on observed bacterial concentrations. These dams were shown to have greater or lesser effects on bacterial concentrations depending on the size of the structure and the capacity of the structure to impede flows. The smaller upstream dam had an approximate height of 3 feet and showed little observed effect on measured turbidity values; these data indicated that the dam did not effectively impede the flow of water or sediment within the West Branch Brandywine Creek. Consequently, this small dam did not show any observed effect on bacterial concentrations either upstream or downstream of the structure. The larger dam, near the middle of the reach, had an approximate height of 20 feet and showed greater effects on both turbidity and bacteria concentrations. The capacity of the larger dam to impede flows, combined with nutrients entering the reach, resulted in increased biologic activity throughout the impoundment area. Within this larger impoundment, enterococcus bacteria populations were observed to decrease sharply and E. coli bacteria populations were observed to increase sharply as flow approached the dam crest. All bacteria levels were then observed to drop to background levels, in both the water column and fluvial sediment, immediately downstream from the dam crest. Additional study is required to determine the cause for this rapid die off. Turbidity was assessed as a potential surrogate for E. coli bacteria. Regression analysis indicated higher turbidity levels usually can indicate higher concentrations of bacteria (R2 = 0.67), but the relation was too sporadic on the West Branch Brandywine Creek to use turbidity as a surrogate for estimated bacteria concentrations. Evaluation of data from individual base-flow and stormflow events resulted in variable and generally poor statistical relations between E. coli bacteria and turbidity (R2 values ranged from 0.02 to 0.94). Sandbag samplers were used in 2003 to determine their suitability for the assessment of fecal contamination. Sandbag samplers rely on the ability of bacteria to attach to surfaces and use the larger sessile bacteria populations instead of the more commonly used planktonic bacteria populations. E. coli bacteria concentrations observed in the sandbag samplers, after 1 week in place, were similar to those found within natural sediments collected concurrently. Enterococcus bacteria concentrations within the same sandbag samplers were not similar, and were generally lower, than those observed within the natural sediments. This discrepancy was likely because sand within the samplers was sieved to a size that was likely too coarse for enterococcus bacteria to persist. Optical-brightener samplers were installed along with each sandbag sampler. Optical brighteners are additives used in common household detergents; therefore, detection of optical brighteners, along with elevated fecal-indicator bacteria concentrations, strongly indicates a link to humans. Positive results for optical brighteners were detected only at the outfalls of two sewage-treatment facilities; because of treatment of the effluent from these facilities, these samples did not have elevated bacteria concentrations. The lack of additional positive results was largely because this method is not sensitive to low concentrations of optical brighteners.

Pennsylvania↗