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At least 505 records · Page 28Linked to original sources
USGS1955

Salt-water encroachment as induced by sea-level excavation on Angaur Island

Angaur, southwesternmost of the Palau Islands, 800 miles southwest of Guam, has an area of 3.2 square miles and consists of reef limestone of Pliocene through Recent age. In the northwestern part of the island a basin is formed by a ringlike ridge that has a maximum altitude of 150 feet. To the east and south a series of arc-shaped lower ridges and intervening depressions are concentric with the ring ridge. Beyond these, a low plain with shallow swales composes the remaining two-thirds of the island. The ridges are composed of indurated limestone, whereas the plain is underlain chiefly by unconsolidated coralline fragments. Phosphate has been mined from the three types of topographic depressions since 1908. When power equipment was introduced, excavations were extended below sea level. Lakes formed in these excavations and, despite an annual rainfall of 110 inches, contamination of fresh-water supplies and of agricultural land by salt water resulted from tidal pulsations through the fissured rock. As a result, stoppage of mining was imminent unless remedial measures could be devised. Angaur provides a model of the operations of a Ghyben-Herzberg fresh-water lens on an oceanic island. At numerous lakes, wells, and test holes, continuing observations were made on water levels; amplitude and lag of tidal fluctuations; and mineral content, pH, and temperature of the lens. These observations guided the selection of constantly adjusted remedial measures, which included partitioning of lakes, and bottom filling or back filling of compartments that failed to freshen because of fissures connecting them with the sea. © 1955 Society of Economic Geologists, Inc.

Angaur↗
USGS2014

Noble gas isotopes in mineral springs within the Cascadia Forearc, Washington and Oregon

This U.S. Geological Survey report presents laboratory analyses along with field notes for a pilot study to document the relative abundance of noble gases in mineral springs within the Cascadia forearc of Washington and Oregon. Estimates of the depth to the underlying Juan de Fuca oceanic plate beneath the sample sites are derived from the McCrory and others (2012) slab model. Some of these springs have been previously sampled for chemical analyses (Mariner and others, 2006), but none currently have publicly available noble gas data. Helium isotope values as well as the noble gas values and ratios presented below will be used to determine the sources and mixing history of these mineral waters.

Oregon;Washington↗
USGS2023

A proposed methodology for conducting threats assessments within the Great Lakes Coregonines restoration framework

This document serves to fulfill the Coregonine Threats Assessment Science Team’s charge of providing a written recommendation for a methodology to conduct threats assessments for Great Lakes coregonines within the Coregonine Restoration Framework (CRF). Through a series of team meetings that included presentations by experts on five candidate threats assessment frameworks followed by structured deliberations, we came to consensus to recommend the threats assessment framework used by Fisheries and Oceans Canada under Canada’s Species at Risk Act, with three modifications: (1) a conceptual modeling step, (2) the use of a “point spreading” approach to incorporate uncertainty when scoring threats, and (3) the use of a modified Delphi or “estimate-talk-estimate” approach when scoring key elements in the assessment. We recommend that this approach be applied to the spatial units delineated by the CRF Resolve Taxonomy and Gap Analysis science teams. In brief, the assessment process includes providing background information on the spatial unit and threats under assessment, constructing a conceptual model linking threats to key processes and vital rates, and scoring or ranking threats across six elements: likelihood of occurrence, level of impact, strength of evidence, unit-level threat occurrence, unit-level threat frequency, and unit-level threat extent. We provide detailed instructions for completing each step of the assessment and generating associated results, with particular attention paid to our suggested modifications. The Coregonine Threats Assessment Science Team also conducted two test runs to assess the applicability and effectiveness of our recommended framework for Great Lakes coregonine populations and their threats. We conducted these test runs on two examples of Great Lakes coregonines that represented two extremes of data availability, as well as two different management contexts. We chose Kiyi (Coregonus kiyi) in Lake Ontario as an example of a data-poor, extirpated population, and we chose Cisco (Coregonus artedi) in Lake Superior as an example of a data-rich, extant population. We provide the results of these test runs in Appendices 1-2. We also describe the lessons we learned from these test runs throughout this document and highlighted them in the “Recommendations for avoiding challenges during application” section.

Report↗
USGS2006

Projecting future sea level

California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future global sea level rises in examining possible impacts at California coastal and estuarine stations. Two climate models and three scenarios considered in this scenarios study provide a set of possible future weather and short-period climate fluctuations, and a range of potential long-term sea level rise values. A range of mean sea level rise was considered in combination with weather and El Niño fluctuations extracted from two global climate models and two GHG emissions scenarios. The mean sea level rise values, determined from a survey of several climate models, range from approximately 10–80 cm (3.9–31 in) between 2000 and 2100. The middle to higher end of this range would substantially exceed the historical rate of sea level rise of 15–20 cm (5.9–7.9 in)per century observed at San Francisco and San Diego during the last 100 years. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides and the surge and waves associated with storms. The potential for impacts of future sea level rise was assessed from the occurrence of hourly sea level extremes. The occurrence of extreme events follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases. The confluence of Low barometric pressures from storms and the presence large waves at the same time substantially increases the likelihood of high, damaging sea levels along the California coast. Similarly, astronomical tides and disturbances in sea level that are caused by weather and climate fluctuations are x transmitted into the San Francisco Bay and Delta, and on into the lower reaches of the Sacramento River. In addition to elevating Bay and Delta sea levels directly through inverse barometer and wind effects, storms may generate heavy precipitation and high fresh water runoff and cause floods in the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, increasing the potential for inundation of levees and other structures. There may also be increased risk of levee failure due to the hydraulics and geometry of these structures. Rising sea levels from climate change will increase the frequency and duration of extreme high water levels, causing historical coastal and San Francisco Bay/Delta structure design criteria to be exceeded.

California↗
USGS2021

Climate-mediated changes to linked terrestrial and marine ecosystems across the northeast Pacific coastal temperate rainforest margin

Coastal margins are important areas of materials flux that link terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Consequently, climate-mediated changes to coastal terrestrial ecosystems and hydrologic regimes have high potential to influence nearshore ocean chemistry and food web dynamics. Research from tightly coupled, high-flux coastal ecosystems can advance understanding of terrestrial–marine links and climate sensitivities more generally. In the present article, we use the northeast Pacific coastal temperate rainforest as a model system to evaluate such links. We focus on key above- and belowground production and hydrological transport processes that control the land-to-ocean flow of materials and their influence on nearshore marine ecosystems. We evaluate how these connections may be altered by global climate change and we identify knowledge gaps in our understanding of the source, transport, and fate of terrestrial materials along this coastal margin. Finally, we propose five priority research themes in this region that are relevant for understanding coastal ecosystem links more broadly.

BioScience↗
USGS2005

The seasonal cycle of diabatic heat storage in the Pacific Ocean

This study quantifies uncertainties in closing the seasonal cycle of diabatic heat storage (DHS) over the Pacific Ocean from 20??S to 60??N through the synthesis of World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) reanalysis products from 1993 to 1999. These products are DHS from Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO); near-surface geostrophic and Ekman currents from Earth and Space Research (ESR); and air-sea heat fluxes from Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and European Center for Mid-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). With these products, we compute residual heat budget components by differencing long-term monthly means from the long-term annual mean. This allows the seasonal cycle of the DHS tendency to be modeled. Everywhere latent heat flux residuals dominate sensible heat flux residuals, shortwave heat flux residuals dominate longwave heat flux residuals, and residual Ekman heat advection dominates residual geostrophic heat advection, with residual dissipation significant only in the Kuroshio-Oyashio current extension. The root-mean-square (RMS) of the differences between observed and model residual DHS tendencies (averaged over 10??latitude-by-20??longitude boxes) is <20 W m-2 in the interior ocean and <100 W m-2 in the Kuroshio-Oyashio current extension. This reveals that the residual DHS tendency is driven everywhere by some mix of residual latent heat flux, shortwave heat flux, and Ekman heat advection. Suppressing bias errors in residual air-sea turbulent heat fluxes and Ekman heat advection through minimization of the RMS differences reduces the latter to <10 W m-2 over the interior ocean and <25 W m -2 in the Kuroshio-Oyashio current extension. This reveals air-sea temperature and specific humidity differences from in situ surface marine weather observations to be a principal source of bias error, overestimated over most of ocean but underestimated near the Intertropical Convergence Zone. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Progress in Oceanography↗
USGS2003

Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the White Clay Creek subbasin of the Christina River Basin, Pennsylvania and Delaware, 1994-98

The Christina River Basin drains 565 square miles (mi 2 ) in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. Water from the basin is used for recreation, drinking water supply, and to support aquatic life. The Christina River Basin includes the major subbasins of Brandywine Creek, White Clay Creek, and Red Clay Creek. The White Clay Creek is the second largest of the subbasins and drains an area of 108 mi 2 . Water quality in some parts of the Christina River Basin is impaired and does not support designated uses of the streams. A multi-agency water-quality management strategy included a modeling component to evaluate the effects of point and nonpoint-source contributions of nutrients and suspended sediment on stream water quality. To assist in non point-source evaluation, four independent models, one for each of the three major subbasins and for the Christina River, were developed and calibrated using the model code Hydrological Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF). Water-quality data for model calibration were collected in each of the four main subbasins and in smaller subbasins predominantly covered by one land use following a nonpoint-source monitoring plan. Under this plan, stormflow and base- flow samples were collected during 1998 at two sites in the White Clay Creek subbasin and at nine sites in the other subbasins. The HSPF model for the White Clay Creek Basin simulates streamflow, suspended sediment, and the nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In addition, the model simulates water temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and plankton as secondary objectives needed to support the sediment and nutrient simulations. For the model, the basin was subdivided into 17 reaches draining areas that ranged from 1.37 to 13 mi 2 . Ten different pervious land uses and two impervious land uses were selected for simulation. Land-use areas were determined from 1995 land-use data. The predominant land uses in the White Clay Creek Basin are agricultural, forested, residential, and urban. The hydrologic component of the model was run at an hourly time step and primarily calibrated using streamflow data from two U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-measurement stations for the period of October 1, 1994, through October 29, 1998. Additional calibration was done using data from two other USGS streamflow-measurement stations with periods of record shorter than the calibration period. Daily precipitation data from two National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gages and hourly precipitation and other meteorological data for one NOAA gage were used for model input. The difference between simulated and observed streamflow volume ranged from -0.9 to 1.8 percent for the 4-year period at the two calibration sites with 4-year records. Annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow generally were greater than the overall error. For example, at a site near the bottom of the basin (drainage area of 89.1 mi 2 ), annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow ranged from -5.8 to 14.4 percent and the overall error for the 4-year period was -0.9 percent. Calibration errors for 36 storm periods at the two calibration sites for total volume, low-flowrecession rate, 50-percent lowest flows, 10-percent highest flows, and storm peaks were within the recommended criteria of 20 percent or less. Much of the error in simulating storm events on an hourly time step can be attributed to uncertainty in the hourly rainfall data. The water-quality component of the model was calibrated using data collected by the USGS and state agencies at three USGS streamflow-measurement stations with variable water-quality monitoring periods ending October 1998. Because of availability, monitoring data for suspended-solids concentrations were used as surrogates for suspended-sediment concentrations, although suspended solids may underestimate suspended sediment and affect apparent accuracy of the suspended-sediment simulation. Comparison of observed to simulated loads for up to five storms in 1998 at each of the two nonpoint-source monitoring sites in the White Clay Creek Basin indicate that simulation error is commonly as large as an order of magnitude for suspended sediment and nutrients. The simulation error tends to be smaller for dissolved nutrients than for particulate nutrients. Errors of 40 percent or less for monthly or annual values indicate a fair to good water-quality calibration according to recommended criteria, with much larger errors possible for individual events. The accuracy of the water-quality calibration under stormflow conditions is limited by the relatively small amount of water-quality data available for the White Clay Creek Basin. Users of the White Clay Creek HSPF model should be aware of model limitations and consider the following if the model is used for predictive purposes: streamflow and water quality for individual storm events may not be well simulated, but the model performance is reasonable when evaluated over longer periods of time; the observed flow-duration curve for the simulation period is similar to the long-term flow-duration curve at White Clay Creek near Newark, Del., indicating that the calibration period is representative of all but highest 0.1 percent and lowest 0.1 percent of flows at that site; relative errors in streamflow and water-quality simulations are greater for smaller drainage areas than for larger areas; and calibration for water-quality was based on sparse data.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2022

Impact of spectral resolution on quantifying cyanobacteria in lakes and reservoirs: A machine-learning assessment

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms are an increasing threat to coastal and inland waters. These blooms can be detected using optical radiometers due to the presence of phycocyanin (PC) pigments. The spectral resolution of best-available multispectral sensors limits their ability to diagnostically detect PC in the presence of other photosynthetic pigments. To assess the role of spectral resolution in the determination of PC, a large (N = 905) database of colocated in situ radiometric spectra and PC are employed. We first examine the performance of selected widely used machine-learning (ML) models against that of benchmark algorithms for hyperspectral remote sensing reflectance ( R r s ) spectra resampled to the spectral configuration of the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) with a full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) of < 6 nm. Results show that the multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network applied to HICO spectral configurations (median errors < 65%) outperforms other ML models. This model is subsequently applied to R r s spectra resampled to the band configuration of existing satellite instruments and of the one proposed for the next Landsat sensor. These results confirm that employing MLP models to estimate PC from hyperspectral data delivers tangible improvements compared with retrievals from multispectral data and benchmark algorithms (with median errors between ~73% and 126%) and shows promise for developing a globally applicable cyanobacteria measurement approach.

IEEE Transactions in Geoscience and Remote Sensing↗
USGS2012

A basin-scale approach for assessing water resources in a semiarid environment: San Diego region, California and Mexico

Many basins throughout the world have sparse hydrologic and geologic data, but have increasing demands for water and a commensurate need for integrated understanding of surface and groundwater resources. This paper demonstrates a methodology for using a distributed parameter water-balance model, gaged surface-water flow, and a reconnaissance-level groundwater flow model to develop a first-order water balance. Flow amounts are rounded to the nearest 5 million cubic meters per year. The San Diego River basin is 1 of 5 major drainage basins that drain to the San Diego coastal plain, the source of public water supply for the San Diego area. The distributed parameter water-balance model (Basin Characterization Model) was run at a monthly timestep for 1940–2009 to determine a median annual total water inflow of 120 million cubic meters per year for the San Diego region. The model was also run specifically for the San Diego River basin for 1982–2009 to provide constraints to model calibration and to evaluate the proportion of inflow that becomes groundwater discharge, resulting in a median annual total water inflow of 50 million cubic meters per year. On the basis of flow records for the San Diego River at Fashion Valley (US Geological Survey gaging station 11023000), when corrected for upper basin reservoir storage and imported water, the total is 30 million cubic meters per year. The difference between these two flow quantities defines the annual groundwater outflow from the San Diego River basin at 20 million cubic meters per year. These three flow components constitute a first-order water budget estimate for the San Diego River basin. The ratio of surface-water outflow and groundwater outflow to total water inflow are 0.6 and 0.4, respectively. Using total water inflow determined using the Basin Characterization Model for the entire San Diego region and the 0.4 partitioning factor, groundwater outflow from the San Diego region, through the coastal plain aquifer to the Pacific Ocean, is calculated to be approximately 50 million cubic meters per year. The area-scale assessment of water resources highlights several hydrologic features of the San Diego region. Groundwater recharge is episodic; the Basin Characterization Model output shows that 90 percent of simulated recharge occurred during 3 percent of the 1982–2009 period. The groundwater aquifer may also be quite permeable. A reconnaissance-level groundwater flow model for the San Diego River basin was used to check the water budget estimates, and the basic interaction of the surface-water and groundwater system, and the flow values, were found to be reasonable. Horizontal hydraulic conductivity values of the volcanic and metavolcanic bedrock in San Diego region range from 1 to 10 m per day. Overall, results establish an initial hydrologic assessment formulated on the basis of sparse hydrologic data. The described flow variability, extrapolation, and unique characteristics represent a realistic view of current (2012) hydrologic understanding for the San Diego region.

California↗
USGS2008

Time-averaged near-bed suspended sediment concentrations under waves and currents: Comparison of measured and model estimates

Profiles of suspended sediment concentration and velocity were measured over a 15-day period at a near-shore site off Santa Cruz, CA in Monterey Bay. The concentration and velocity data were collected with an Acoustic Backscattering System (ABS) and Acoustic Current Profiler (ACP) that were mounted on a bottom tripod. High-resolution bottom scanning sonar was also attached to the tripod to provide images of bed features during the experiment. Hourly time-averaged near-bed concentrations of suspended sediment were calculated from three models and compared with the measurements. Surface waves and currents that were generated by a storm of moderate intensity caused bed stresses that exceeded threshold stress for D 50 =0.02 cm, the median size of the moderately well-sorted bottom sediment, over a period of about 7 days. Estimates of the concentration at 1 cm above the bottom, C a1 , were obtained using the ABS measurements. These observations have been compared with predictions for the concentration at 1 cm above the bottom, C 1 . Nielsen's models for reference concentration C o [Nielsen, P., 1986. Suspended sediment concentrations under waves. Coastal Engineering 10, 32-31; Nielsen, P., 1992. Coastal Bottom Boundary Layers and Sediment Transport, Advanced Series on Ocean Engineering. World Scientific, Hackensack, NJ.] are purely wave-based and do not include effects of bottom currents on bed stress and bedform scales. C 1 calculated from this model compared well with measured C a1 when currents were weak and small oscillatory ripples were observed in the sonar images. However, during the 3-day period of highest bottom stresses modeled C 1 did not compare well to C a1 . The other two models for C 1 , Glenn and Grant [Glenn, S.M., Grant, W.D., 1987. A suspended sediment stratification correction for combined wave and current flows. Journal of Geophysical Research 92(C8), 8244-8264.] and van Rijn and Walstra [Van Rijn, L.C., Walstra, D.J.R., 2004. Description of TRANSPOR2004 and implementation in Delft3D-ONLINE. Interim Report prepared for DG Rijkswaterstaat, Rijksinstituut voor Kust en Zee. Delft Hydraulics Institute, The Netherlands.], accounted for combined wave-current stresses and included different formulations for predicting bedform scales. C 1 calculated from these models compared well with measurements throughout the early and middle period of the storm, but underpredicted measured values during the latter part of the experiment. An alternative method based on dimensional analysis provided a straightforward way to relate C 1 to bed stress and sediment parameters. This new relationship based on dimensional analysis explained about 77% of the variability in C a1 derived from the ABS data.

California↗
USGS2014

A framework for the probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis

A probabilistic technique is developed to assess the hazard from meteotsunamis. Meteotsunamis are unusual sea-level events, generated when the speed of an atmospheric pressure or wind disturbance is comparable to the phase speed of long waves in the ocean. A general aggregation equation is proposed for the probabilistic analysis, based on previous frameworks established for both tsunamis and storm surges, incorporating different sources and source parameters of meteotsunamis. Parameterization of atmospheric disturbances and numerical modeling is performed for the computation of maximum meteotsunami wave amplitudes near the coast. A historical record of pressure disturbances is used to establish a continuous analytic distribution of each parameter as well as the overall Poisson rate of occurrence. A demonstration study is presented for the northeast U.S. in which only isolated atmospheric pressure disturbances from squall lines and derechos are considered. For this study, Automated Surface Observing System stations are used to determine the historical parameters of squall lines from 2000 to 2013. The probabilistic equations are implemented using a Monte Carlo scheme, where a synthetic catalog of squall lines is compiled by sampling the parameter distributions. For each entry in the catalog, ocean wave amplitudes are computed using a numerical hydrodynamic model. Aggregation of the results from the Monte Carlo scheme results in a meteotsunami hazard curve that plots the annualized rate of exceedance with respect to maximum event amplitude for a particular location along the coast. Results from using multiple synthetic catalogs, resampled from the parent parameter distributions, yield mean and quantile hazard curves. Further refinements and improvements for probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis are discussed.

Natural Hazards↗
USGS2013

Basin-scale phenology and effects of climate variability on global timing of initial seaward migration of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Migrations between different habitats are key events in the lives of many organisms. Such movements involve annually recurring travel over long distances usually triggered by seasonal changes in the environment. Often, the migration is associated with travel to or from reproduction areas to regions of growth. Young anadromous Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) emigrate from freshwater nursery areas during spring and early summer to feed and grow in the North Atlantic Ocean. The transition from the freshwater (‘parr’) stage to the migratory stage where they descend streams and enter salt water (‘smolt’) is characterized by morphological, physiological and behavioural changes where the timing of this parr-smolt transition is cued by photoperiod and water temperature. Environmental conditions in the freshwater habitat control the downstream migration and contribute to within- and among-river variation in migratory timing. Moreover, the timing of the freshwater emigration has likely evolved to meet environmental conditions in the ocean as these affect growth and survival of the post-smolts. Using generalized additive mixed-effects modelling, we analysed spatio-temporal variations in the dates of downstream smolt migration in 67 rivers throughout the North Atlantic during the last five decades and found that migrations were earlier in populations in the east than the west. After accounting for this spatial effect, the initiation of the downstream migration among rivers was positively associated with freshwater temperatures, up to about 10 °C and levelling off at higher values, and with sea-surface temperatures. Earlier migration occurred when river discharge levels were low but increasing. On average, the initiation of the smolt seaward migration has occurred 2.5 days earlier per decade throughout the basin of the North Atlantic. This shift in phenology matches changes in air, river, and ocean temperatures, suggesting that Atlantic salmon emigration is responding to the current global climate changes.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2012

Deep Arctic Ocean warming during the last glacial cycle

In the Arctic Ocean, the cold and relatively fresh water beneath the sea ice is separated from the underlying warmer and saltier Atlantic Layer by a halocline. Ongoing sea ice loss and warming in the Arctic Ocean have demonstrated the instability of the halocline, with implications for further sea ice loss. The stability of the halocline through past climate variations is unclear. Here we estimate intermediate water temperatures over the past 50,000 years from the Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca values of ostracods from 31 Arctic sediment cores. From about 50 to 11 kyr ago, the central Arctic Basin from 1,000 to 2,500 m was occupied by a water mass we call Glacial Arctic Intermediate Water. This water mass was 1–2 °C warmer than modern Arctic Intermediate Water, with temperatures peaking during or just before millennial-scale Heinrich cold events and the Younger Dryas cold interval. We use numerical modelling to show that the intermediate depth warming could result from the expected decrease in the flux of fresh water to the Arctic Ocean during glacial conditions, which would cause the halocline to deepen and push the warm Atlantic Layer into intermediate depths. Although not modelled, the reduced formation of cold, deep waters due to the exposure of the Arctic continental shelf could also contribute to the intermediate depth warming.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2014

Modeling erosion of ice-rich permafrost bluffs along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast

The Arctic climate is changing, inducing accelerating retreat of ice-rich permafrost coastal bluffs. Along Alaska’s Beaufort Sea coast, erosion rates have increased roughly threefold from 6.8 to 19 m yr −1 since 1955 while the sea ice-free season has increased roughly twofold from 45 to 100 days since 1979. We develop a numerical model of bluff retreat to assess the relative roles of the length of sea ice-free season, sea level, water temperature, nearshore wavefield, and permafrost temperature in controlling erosion rates in this setting. The model captures the processes of erosion observed in short-term monitoring experiments along the Beaufort Sea coast, including evolution of melt notches, topple of ice wedge-bounded blocks, and degradation of these blocks. Model results agree with time-lapse imagery of bluff evolution and time series of ocean-based instrumentation. Erosion is highly episodic with 40% of erosion is accomplished during less than 5% of the sea ice-free season. Among the formulations of the submarine erosion rate we assessed, we advocate those that employ both water temperature and nearshore wavefield. As high water levels are a prerequisite for erosion, any future changes that increase the frequency with which water levels exceed the base of the bluffs will increase rates of coastal erosion. The certain increases in sea level and potential changes in storminess will both contribute to this effect. As water temperature also influences erosion rates, any further expansion of the sea ice-free season into the midsummer period of greatest insolation is likely to result in an additional increase in coastal retreat rates.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Telemetry reveals migratory drivers and disparate space use across seasons and age-groups in American horseshoe crabs

Identifying mechanisms that underpin animal migration patterns and examining variability in space use within populations is crucial for understanding population dynamics and management implications. In this study, we quantified the migration rates, seasonal changes in migratory connectivity, and residency across population demographics (age and sex) to understand the proximate cues of migration timing in American horseshoe crabs ( Limulus polyphemus ). Juvenile ( n = 25) and adult ( n = 70) horseshoe crabs were tracked with acoustic telemetry techniques for a 3-yr period in Moriches Bay, NY. Connectivity metrics and residency probability were quantified through spatial network analysis and empirically derived Markov Chain models (EDMC), respectively. The migratory probability of adult horseshoe crabs between Moriches Bay and the Atlantic Ocean was estimated to be 41.0% (95% CI: 34.0–59.8); in contrast, only 8% (95% CI: 1.2–31.6) of juveniles migrated into the ocean. Migration timing was influenced by the interaction of photoperiod and temperature, revealing seasonal differences in migration timing and a 50% narrower range of photoperiod and temperature over which fall migrations occurred compared to spring. Sex-specific differences in space use and connectivity within each season were largely absent; however, centralized habitats were important for maintaining connectivity across all seasons. EDMC results revealed that when standardized to the number of horseshoe crab detections on each receiver, the centrally located habitats in Moriches Bay and Inlet accounted for >50% of the total relative residency probability within most seasons, indicating these areas may be preferred by adult horseshoe crabs. Ontogenetic differences in maximum spatial extent, space use, and connectivity were observed in the bay, as juveniles exhibited lower linkages between locations ( n = 4) relative to adults ( n = 13) during the same temporal period. Our work highlights the application of novel quantitative approaches for addressing the movement dynamics of horseshoe crabs that can be readily applied to other taxa in the context of wildlife conservation.

New York↗
USGS2009

Stratigraphic controls on seawater intrusion and implications for groundwater management, Dominguez Gap area of Los Angeles, California, USA

Groundwater pumping has led to extensive water-level declines and seawater intrusion in coastal Los Angeles, California (USA). A SUTRA-based solute-transport model was developed to test the hydraulic implications of a sequence-stratigraphic model of the Dominguez Gap area and to assess the effects of water-management scenarios. The model is two-dimensional, vertical and follows an approximate flow line extending from the Pacific Ocean through the Dominguez Gap area. Results indicate that a newly identified fault system can provide a pathway for transport of seawater and that a stratigraphic boundary located between the Bent Spring and Upper Wilmington sequences may control the vertical movement of seawater. Three 50-year water-management scenarios were considered: (1) no change in water-management practices; (2) installation of a slurry wall; and (3) raising inland water levels to 7.6 m above sea level. Scenario 3 was the most effective by reversing seawater intrusion. The effects of an instantaneous 1-m sea-level rise were also tested using water-management scenarios 1 and 3. Results from two 100-year simulations indicate that a 1-m sea-level rise may accelerate seawater intrusion for scenario 1; however, scenario 3 remains effective for controlling seawater intrusion.

Hydrogeology Journal↗
USGS2012

Lu-Hf constraints on the evolution of lunar basalts

Very low Ti basalts and green glass samples from the moon show high Lu/Hf ratios and low Hf concentrations. Low-Ti lunar basalts show high and variable Lu/Hf ratios and higher Hf concentrations, whereas high-Ti lunar basalts show low Lu/Hf ratios and high Hf concentrations. KREEP basalts have constant Lu/Hf ratios and high but variable Hf concentrations. Using the Lu-Hf behavior as a constraint, we propose a model for the mare basalts evolution. This constraint requires extensive crystallization of the primary lunar magma ocean prior to formation of the lunar mare basalt sources and the KREEP basalts. Mare basalts are produced by the melting of the cumulate rocks, and KREEP basalts represent the residual liquid of the magma ocean. Lu and Hf concentrations and the Hf isotopic data of lunar rocks suggest that assimilation cannot be accepted as a major process to explain the diversity of the lunar mare basalts. The urKREEP hypothesis is also unnecessary. Both high- and low-Ti basalts show enough iron enrichment to be regarded as melting products of the last stage cumulate rocks from the lunar magma ocean. The KREEP basalts are also rich in iron and may be regarded as the final, residual liquid left after the crystallization of the major portion of the primary lunar magma ocean.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2011

Tidal Boundary Conditions in SEAWAT

SEAWAT, a U.S. Geological Survey groundwater flow and transport code, is increasingly used to model the effects of tidal motion on coastal aquifers. Different options are available to simulate tidal boundaries but no guidelines exist nor have comparisons been made to identify the most effective approach. We test seven methods to simulate a sloping beach and a tidal flat. The ocean is represented in one of the three ways: directly using a high hydraulic conductivity (high- K ) zone and indirect simulation via specified head boundaries using either the General Head Boundary (GHB) or the new Periodic Boundary Condition (PBC) package. All beach models simulate similar water fluxes across the upland boundary and across the sediment-water interface although the ratio of intertidal to subtidal flow is different at low tide. Simulating a seepage face results in larger intertidal fluxes and influences near-shore heads and salinity. Major differences in flow occur in the tidal flat simulations. Because SEAWAT does not simulate unsaturated flow the water table only rises via flow through the saturated zone. This results in delayed propagation of the rising tidal signal inland. Inundation of the tidal flat is delayed as is flow into the aquifer across the flat. This is severe in the high- K and PBC models but mild in the GHB models. Results indicate that any of the tidal boundary options are fine if the ocean-aquifer interface is steep. However, as the slope of that interface decreases, the high- K and PBC approaches perform poorly and the GHB boundary is preferable.

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