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Smartphone technologies and Bayesian networks to assess shorebird habitat selection

Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in response to sea-level rise. We characterized a data collection and analysis approach as being effective if it provided low-cost collection of standardized habitat-selection data across the species’ breeding range within 1–2 nesting seasons and accurate nesting location predictions. In the method developed, >30 managers and conservation practitioners from government agencies and private organizations used a smartphone application, “iPlover,” to collect data on landcover characteristics at piping plover nest locations and random points on 83 beaches and barrier islands in 2014 and 2015. We analyzed these data with a Bayesian network that predicted the probability a specific combination of landcover variables would be associated with a nesting site. Although we focused on a shorebird, our approach can be modified for other taxa. Results showed that the Bayesian network performed well in predicting habitat availability and confirmed predicted habitat preferences across the Atlantic coast breeding range of the piping plover. We used the Bayesian network to map areas with a high probability of containing nesting habitat on the Rockaway Peninsula in New York, USA, as an example application. Our approach facilitated the collation of evidence-based information on habitat selection from many locations and sources, which can be used in management and decision-making applications.

U.S Atlantic Coast

Statistical evaluation of an inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometric method for routine water quality testing

In an interlaboratory test, inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES) was compared with flame atomic absorption spectrometry and molecular absorption spectrophotometry for the determination of 17 major and trace elements in 100 filtered natural water samples. No unacceptable biases were detected. The analysis precision of ICP-AES was found to be equal to or better than alternative methods. Known-addition recovery experiments demonstrated that the ICP-AES determinations are accurate to between plus or minus 2 and plus or minus 10 percent; four-fifths of the tests yielded average recoveries of 95-105 percent, with an average relative standard deviation of about 5 percent.

Applied Spectroscopy

Thermal Methods for Investigating Ground-Water Recharge

Recharge of aquifers within arid and semiarid environments is defined as the downward flux of water across the regional water table. The introduction of recharging water at the land surface can occur at discreet locations, such as in stream channels, or be distributed over the landscape, such as across broad interarroyo areas within an alluvial ground-water basin. The occurrence of recharge at discreet locations is referred to as focused recharge, whereas the occurrence of recharge over broad regions is referred to as diffuse recharge. The primary interest of this appendix is focused recharge, but regardless of the type of recharge, estimation of downward fluxes is essential to its quantification. Like chemical tracers, heat can come from natural sources or be intentionally introduced to infer transport properties and aquifer recharge. The admission and redistribution of heat from natural processes such as insolation, infiltration, and geothermal activity can be used to quantify subsurface flow regimes. Heat is well suited as a ground-water tracer because it provides a naturally present dynamic signal and is relatively harmless over a useful range of induced perturbations. Thermal methods have proven valuable for recharge investigations for several reasons. First, theoretical descriptions of coupled water-and-heat transport are available for the hydrologic processes most often encountered in practice. These include land-surface mechanisms such as radiant heating from the sun, radiant cooling into space, and evapotranspiration, in addition to the advective and conductive mechanisms that usually dominate at depth. Second, temperature is theoretically well defined and readily measured. Third, thermal methods for depths ranging from the land surface to depths of hundreds of meters are based on similar physical principles. Fourth, numerical codes for simulating heat and water transport have become increasingly reliable and widely available. Direct measurement of water flux in the subsurface is difficult, prompting investigators to pursue indirect methods. Geophysical approaches that exploit the coupled relation between heat and water transport provide an attractive class of methods that have become widely used in investigations of recharge. This appendix reviews the application of heat to the problem of recharge estimation. Its objective is to provide a fairly complete account of the theoretical underpinnings together with a comprehensive review of thermal methods in practice. Investigators began using subsurface temperatures to delineate recharge areas and infer directions of ground-water flow around the turn of the 20th century. During the 1960s, analytical and numerical solutions for simplified heat- and fluid-flow problems became available. These early solutions, though one-dimensional and otherwise restricted, provided a strong impetus for applying thermal methods to problems of liquid and vapor movement in systems ranging from soils to geothermal reservoirs. Today?s combination of fast processors, massive data-storage units, and efficient matrix techniques provide numerical solutions to complex, three-dimensional transport problems. These approaches allow researchers to take advantage of the considerable information content routinely achievable in high-accuracy temperature work.

Professional Paper

Statistical Approaches to Interpretation of Local, Regional, and National Highway-Runoff and Urban-Stormwater Data

Decision makers need viable methods for the interpretation of local, regional, and national-highway runoff and urban-stormwater data including flows, concentrations and loads of chemical constituents and sediment, potential effects on receiving waters, and the potential effectiveness of various best management practices (BMPs). Valid (useful for intended purposes), current, and technically defensible stormwater-runoff models are needed to interpret data collected in field studies, to support existing highway and urban-runoffplanning processes, to meet National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) requirements, and to provide methods for computation of Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) systematically and economically. Historically, conceptual, simulation, empirical, and statistical models of varying levels of detail, complexity, and uncertainty have been used to meet various data-quality objectives in the decision-making processes necessary for the planning, design, construction, and maintenance of highways and for other land-use applications. Water-quality simulation models attempt a detailed representation of the physical processes and mechanisms at a given site. Empirical and statistical regional water-quality assessment models provide a more general picture of water quality or changes in water quality over a region. All these modeling techniques share one common aspect-their predictive ability is poor without suitable site-specific data for calibration. To properly apply the correct model, one must understand the classification of variables, the unique characteristics of water-resources data, and the concept of population structure and analysis. Classifying variables being used to analyze data may determine which statistical methods are appropriate for data analysis. An understanding of the characteristics of water-resources data is necessary to evaluate the applicability of different statistical methods, to interpret the results of these techniques, and to use tools and techniques that account for the unique nature of water-resources data sets. Populations of data on stormwater-runoff quantity and quality are often best modeled as logarithmic transformations. Therefore, these factors need to be considered to form valid, current, and technically defensible stormwater-runoff models. Regression analysis is an accepted method for interpretation of water-resources data and for prediction of current or future conditions at sites that fit the input data model. Regression analysis is designed to provide an estimate of the average response of a system as it relates to variation in one or more known variables. To produce valid models, however, regression analysis should include visual analysis of scatterplots, an examination of the regression equation, evaluation of the method design assumptions, and regression diagnostics. A number of statistical techniques are described in the text and in the appendixes to provide information necessary to interpret data by use of appropriate methods. Uncertainty is an important part of any decisionmaking process. In order to deal with uncertainty problems, the analyst needs to know the severity of the statistical uncertainty of the methods used to predict water quality. Statistical models need to be based on information that is meaningful, representative, complete, precise, accurate, and comparable to be deemed valid, up to date, and technically supportable. To assess uncertainty in the analytical tools, the modeling methods, and the underlying data set, all of these components need be documented and communicated in an accessible format within project publications.

Open-File Report

Fish egg injection as an alternative exposure route for early life stage toxicity studies: Description of two unique methods: Chapter 4

In the environment, lipophilic contaminants such as halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons (HAHs, e.g., polychlorinated biphenyls, PCBs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs, e.g., benzo[a]pyrene) readily bioaccumulate in fish, and the bioaccumulation of these lipophilic chemicals by adult fish may have significant consequences on the development and survival of their offspring. Halogenated and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons translocate from adult female body stores into eggs during oocyte maturation, and early life stages of fish are often more sensitive than adults to the toxicity of these chemicals. Thus, the presence of persistent, bioaccumulative contaminants in the environment may pose a risk to fish early life stage survival and ultimately reduce recruitment into the adult population. Typically, standard early life stage toxicity studies exposed embryos, larvae, and juveniles to graded concentrations of waterborne toxicants, and dose-response relationships are based on the concentrations of chemicals in the water. However, use of waterborne exposure to assess the toxicity of persistent, bioaccumulative contaminants, such as HAHs and PAHs, has two significant drawbacks. First, uptake of hydrophobic chemicals, such as HAHs and PAHs, into the developing embryo from water is not a significant route of exposure in the environment since concentrations of these chemicals freely dissolved in water are extremely low. Rather, maternal deposition into developing oocytes is the most significant source of these chemicals to the embryo. Second, the dose received by the target tissue, in this case the developing embryo, is the most accurate predictor of the toxic response, and since extrapolation from water concentrations of the chemical to egg concentrations is required, the exact dose received by the embryo can only be estimated, often with large uncertainty. Due to these drawbacks, it is important to develop an alternative exposure method that will directly expose the developing embryo without the need to chronically expose adult fish with subsequent natural deposition of hydrophobic chemicals into the oocytes. Fish egg injection provides this exposure route. Embryos are exposed directly after fertilization with known doses of contaminants, the dose is delivered prior to critical developmental events, and extrapolation of the dose received by the embryo is not needed. We have developed two unique fish egg injection methods as alternative routes of exposure for fish early life stage toxicity studies of lipophilic environmental contaminants. With either method, individual fish eggs are injected with a known dose of chemical. The first approach, a microinjection method, originally developed to assess the developmental toxicity of HAH congeners to early life stages of salmonids, utilizes micro-syringes, 30- gauge stainless steel injection needles, and micro- to nanoliter injection volume. The second approach, a nano-injection method, utilizes glass capillary micropipettes with 2 to 10 µm tips as injection needles, and nano- to picoliter injection volume, allowing injection of nearly any size of fish egg. Both of these egg injection methods allow an investigator to assess the toxicity of lipophilic environmental contaminants to early life stages of fish in a manner that realistically reflects environmental exposure and allows accurate quantitation of the dose to the developing embryo. These injection techniques, however, are not limited to use with only lipophilic chemicals. Since the developmental toxicity of many environmental contaminants ultimately depends on the dose received by the embryo, these egg injection methods could serve as a realistic exposure route in many fish early life stage toxicity studies.

Book chapter

Methods of analysis by the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory - Determination of moderate-use pesticides and selected degradates in water by C-18 solid-phase extraction and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry

A method for the isolation and analysis of 21 parent pesticides and 20 pesticide degradates in natural-water samples is described. Water samples are filtered to remove suspended particulate matter and then are pumped through disposable solid-phase-extraction columns that contain octadecyl-bonded porous silica to extract the analytes. The columns are dried by using nitrogen gas, and adsorbed analytes are eluted with ethyl acetate. Extracted analytes are determined by capillary-column gas chromatography/mass spectrometry with selected-ion monitoring of three characteristic ions. The upper concentration limit is 2 micrograms per liter (µg/L) for most analytes. Single-operator method detection limits in reagent-water samples range from 0.00 1 to 0.057 µg/L. Validation data also are presented for 14 parent pesticides and 20 degradates that were determined to have greater bias or variability, or shorter holding times than the other compounds. The estimated maximum holding time for analytes in pesticide-grade water before extraction was 4 days. The estimated maximum holding time for analytes after extraction on the dry solid-phase-extraction columns was 7 days. An optional on-site extraction procedure allows for samples to be collected and processed at remote sites where it is difficult to ship samples to the laboratory within the recommended pre-extraction holding time. The method complements existing U.S. Geological Survey Method O-1126-95 (NWQL Schedules 2001 and 2010) by using identical sample preparation and comparable instrument analytical conditions so that sample extracts can be analyzed by either method to expand the range of analytes determined from one water sample.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

An initial abstraction and constant loss model, and methods for estimating unit hydrographs, peak streamflows, and flood volumes for urban basins in Missouri

Streamflow data, basin characteristics, and rainfall data from 39 streamflow-gaging stations for urban areas in and adjacent to Missouri were used by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Metropolitan Sewer District of St. Louis to develop an initial abstraction and constant loss model (a time-distributed basin-loss model) and a gamma unit hydrograph (GUH) for urban areas in Missouri. Study-specific methods to determine peak streamflow and flood volume for a given rainfall event also were developed. Distinct basin characteristics were evaluated and selected for use on the basis of their theoretical relation to flow, results from previous studies, and the ability to reliably measure the basin characteristic using digital datasets and geographic information system (GIS) technology. The key basin characteristics determined or computed for each of the 39 basins upstream from the streamflow-gaging stations were drainage area, percent impervious area, main-channel slope based on the 10- and 85-percent length method, percentage of the basin area in storage (lakes, ponds, reservoirs, wetlands), the composite Natural Resources Conservation Service curve number estimated from a combination of the soil type data and land-use characteristics, and the streamflow variability index developed for the recently completed study of low-flow regression in Missouri. Characteristics of spatial and temporal rainfall distribution came from the next generation weather radar (NEXRAD) network. Procedures were developed for this study to convert the variable radar sweep rate into a 5-minute total rainfall hyetograph using data from the radar bin at the centroid of a given basin. Additional characteristics determined for each storm on the basin included the 5-day and 14-day antecedent rainfall, estimated from the mean of daily rainfall values from various rain gages in the area. The database of observed rainfall and runoff events for the 39 basins upstream from the streamflow-gaging stations was analyzed to compute the optimal storm-specific initial abstraction and constant loss values, as well as the time to peak, peak streamflow, and shape factor values of the GUH. The optimal storm-specific values were used to develop a regional regression equation for initial abstraction; conversely, the constant loss was estimated not by regression but from either a generalized or specific regional mean value. The optimal storm-specific values of GUH time to peak, GUH peak streamflow, and GUH shape factor were used to develop regression equations for the GUH. The regression equations for the GUH initially were tested alone, and then were combined with the appropriate regional regression equation for initial abstraction and both the generalized regional and specific regional mean constant loss values. For the GUH regression equations, the interquartile range was substantially smaller than the range spanned by the minimum and maximum values, which indicates most of the errors have much smaller variation, and the minimum and maximum values may be extreme outliers. The central tendency of the regressed errors for peak streamflow and runoff hydrograph volume were both approximately zero, which implies a generally unbiased estimation of these values. The mean and median of the regressed errors for time to peak streamflow were both small but greater than zero, which implies the GUH regression equations create a hydrograph that has a peak that is later in time than observed. Specifically, the regressed times indicate an offset of about 10 minutes, on average, from observed. The mean and median of the regressed errors for widths of the runoff hydrograph at 50 and 75 percent were less than zero, which implies the GUH tends to slightly underestimate these widths compared to the observed. The appropriate regional initial abstraction regression equation was combined with both the generalized and the specific regional mean constant loss values and the GUH regression equations. Both the generalized regional mean constant loss and specific regional mean constant loss forms of the basin-loss model worked equally well to model the observed runoff hydrograph based on the error analysis, and neither model seems to make a consistently better approximation. Both initial abstraction and constant loss models combined with the GUH regression equations were further validated using several storms available after the start of the project in early 2011 with similar but consistently higher error results. If these methods are used in an urban area in Missouri other than those examined in this study, advice to the user is given to consider using the generalized regional mean values. If these methods are used in an urban area that is a subbasin of one of the basins in this study, advice to the user is given to consider using the specific regional mean values. The rainfall-runoff pairs from the storm-specific GUH analysis were further analyzed against various basin and rainfall characteristics to develop equations to estimate the peak streamflow and flood volume based on a quantity of rainfall on the basin.

Missouri

Evaluation of ground-water and boron sources by use of boron stable-isotope ratios, tritium, and selected water-chemistry constituents near Beverly Shores, northwestern Indiana, 2004

Concentrations of boron greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) 900 μg/L removal action level (RAL) standard were detected in water sampled by the USEPA in 2004 from three domestic wells near Beverly Shores, Indiana. The RAL regulates only human-affected concentrations of a constituent. A lack of well logs and screened depth information precluded identification of whether water from sampled wells, and their boron sources, were from human-affected or natural sources in the surficial aquifer, or associated with a previously defined natural, confined aquifer source of boron from the subtill or basal sand aquifers. A geochemically-based classification of the source of boron in ground water could potentially determine the similarity of boron to known sources or mixtures between known sources, or classify whether the relative age of the ground water predated the potential sources of contamination. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the USEPA, investigated the use of a geochemical method that applied boron stable isotopes, and concentrations of boron, tritium, and other constituents to distinguish between natural and human-affected sources of boron in ground water and thereby determine if the RAL was applicable to the situation. Boron stable-isotope ratios and concentrations of boron in 17 ground-water samples and tritium concentrations in 9 ground-water samples collected in 2004 were used to identify geochemical differences between potential sources of boron in ground water near Beverly Shores, Indiana. Boron and δ 11 B analyses for this investigation were made on unacidified samples to assure consistency of the result with unacidified analyses of δ 11 B values from other investigations. Potential sources of boron included surficial-aquifer water affected by coal-combustion products (CCP) or domestic-wastewater, upward discharge of ground water from confined aquifers, and unaffected water from the surficial aquifer that was distant from human-affected boron sources. Boron concentrations in potential ground-water sources of boron were largest (15,700 to 24,400 μg/L) in samples of CCP-affected surficial aquifer water from four wells at a CCP landfill and smallest (27 to 63 μg/L) in three wells in the surficial aquifer that were distant from human-affected boron sources. Boron concentrations in water from the basal sand aquifer ranged from 656 μg/L to 1,800 μg/L. Boron concentrations in water from three domestic-wastewater-affected surficial aquifer wells ranged from 84 to 387 μg/L. Among the representative ground-water samples, boron concentrations from all four samples of CCP-affected surficial aquifer water and four of five samples of water from the basal sand aquifer had concentrations greater than the RAL. A comparison of boron concentrations in acid-preserved and unacidified samples indicated that boron concentrations reported for this investigation may be from about 11 to 16 percent less than would be reported in a standard analysis of an acidified sample. The stable isotope boron-11 was most enriched in comparison to boron-10 in ground water from a confined aquifer, the basal sand aquifer (δ 11 B, 24.6 to 34.0 per mil, five samples); it was most depleted in CCP-affected water from the surficial aquifer (δ 11 B, 0.1 to 6.6 per mil, four samples). Domestic-wastewater-affected water from the surficial aquifer (δ 11 B, 8.7 to 11.7 per mil, four samples) was enriched in boron-11, in comparison to individual samples of a borax detergent additive and a detergent with perborate bleach; it was intermediate in composition between basal sand aquifer water and CCP-affected water from the surficial aquifer. The similarity between a ground-water sample from the surficial aquifer and a hypothetical mixture of unaffected surficial aquifer and basal sand aquifer waters indicates the potential for long-term upward discharge of ground water into the surficial aquifer from one or more confined aquifers. Estimated δ 11 B values for acidified samples were depleted by 1.9 to 2.8 per mil in comparison to unacidified samples from the four wells sampled; those differences were small in comparison to the differences between δ 11 B values of representative sources of boron in ground water. Tritium concentrations ranged from 7.0 to 10.3 tritium units in six samples from the surficial aquifer and were less than 0.8 tritium units in three samples from the basal sand aquifer. Water from wells in the surficial aquifer represents predominantly modern, post-1972 recharge and sources of boron and other constituents. Water from the basal sand aquifer is associated with pre-1952 recharge from sources not affected by local boron inputs. Ground water from six wells (five domestic wells and one public-supply well) where the ground-water source was unknown had boron concentrations, boron isotope ratios, and tritium concentrations similar to water from the basal sand aquifer. Boron concentrations greater than the RAL were found in water from four of these six wells. The boron isotope and tritium data from these four wells indicate a natural source of boron in ground water; therefore, the RAL does not apply to boron concentrations in water from these wells. Water samples from two domestic wells where the ground-water source was unknown had boron concentrations less than the RAL and boron isotope ratios and tritium concentrations that were similar to domestic-wastewater-affected water from the surficial aquifer. The boron isotope ratio for a sample from one domestic well was similar to that of CCP-affected water from the surficial aquifer and detergent compositions; the boron concentration of that sample was less than the RAL. The classifications of differences among representative sources of boron in ground water and water samples from wells where the ground-water source was unknown generally agreed with distinctions based on strontium-87/strontium-86 ratios and concentrations of strontium, chloride, nitrate, and ammonia. This application of boron concentrations, boron isotope ratios, and tritium concentrations to classify differences in relation to potential sources of boron in ground water was able to distinguish between boron from natural sources and from human-affected sources that are subject to regulation.

Indiana

A precise method for the analysis of δ18O of dissolved inorganic phosphate in seawater

A method for preparation and analysis of the oxygen isotope composition (δ 18 O) of dissolved inorganic phosphate (DIP) has been developed and preliminary results for water samples from various locations are reported. Phosphate is extracted from seawater samples by coprecipitation with magnesium hydroxide. Phosphate is further purified through a series of precipitations and resin separation and is ultimately converted to silver phosphate. Silver phosphate samples are pyrolitically decomposed to carbon monoxide and analyzed for δ 18 O. Silver phosphate samples weighing 0.7 mg (3.5 µmol oxygen) can be analyzed routinely with an average standard deviation of about 0.3‰. There is no isotope fractionation during extraction and blanks are negligible within analytical error. Reproducibility was determined for both laboratory standards and natural samples by multiple analyses. A comparison between filtered and unfiltered natural seawater samples was also conducted and no appreciable difference was observed for the samples tested. The δ 18 O values of DIP in seawater determined using this method range from 18.6‰ to 22.3‰, suggesting small but detectable natural variability in seawater. For the San Francisco Bay estuary DIP δ 18 O is more variable, ranging from 11.4‰ near the San Joaquin River to 20.1‰ near the Golden Gate Bridge, and was well correlated with salinity, phosphate concentration, and δ 18 O of water.

California

Surficial geological tools in fluvial geomorphology: Chapter 2

Increasingly, environmental scientists are being asked to develop an understanding of how rivers and streams have been altered by environmental stresses, whether rivers are subject to physical or chemical hazards, how they can be restored, and how they will respond to future environmental change. These questions present substantive challenges to the discipline of fluvial geomorphology, especially since decades of geomorphologic research have demonstrated the general complexity of fluvial systems. It follows from the concept of complex response that synoptic and short-term historical views of rivers will often give misleading understanding of future behavior. Nevertheless, broadly trained geomorphologists can address questions involving complex natural systems by drawing from a tool box that commonly includes the principles and methods of geology, hydrology, hydraulics, engineering, and ecology.

Book chapter

Assessing land cover performance in Senegal, West Africa using 1-km integrated NDVI and local variance analysis

The researchers calculated seasonal integrated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for each of 7 years using a time-series of 1-km data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) (1992-93, 1995) and SPOT Vegetation (1998-2001) sensors. We used a local variance technique to identify each pixel as normal or either positively or negatively anomalous when compared to its surroundings. We then summarized the number of years that a given pixel was identified as an anomaly. The resulting anomaly maps were analysed using Landsat TM imagery and extensive ground knowledge to assess the results. This technique identified anomalies that can be linked to numerous anthropogenic impacts including agricultural and urban expansion, maintenance of protected areas and increased fallow. Local variance analysis is a reliable method for assessing vegetation degradation resulting from human pressures or increased land productivity from natural resource management practices. ?? 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Journal of Arid Environments

Radiometric dating of sediments using fission tracks in conodonts

Conodonts are microfossils which are commonly found in marine rocks of Cambrian to Triassic age. Although their biological affinities are difficult to assess, conodonts are valuable stratigraphical indices for much of their geological range1. Recent work has also established that conodont colour alteration indices (CAI) are useful guides to diagenetic temperatures and hence burial depth2. Fission tracks3 in conodonts allow measurement of uranium concentrations and estimates of 'age' to be made using isotopic methods4. We report here that fission tracks counted in irradiated, thermally unaltered (as indicated by CAI) middle Palaeozoic conodonts indicate typical uranium concentrations of ???1 part in 10 9, with some samples higher. A single specimen of Siphonodella from the Lower Mississippian yielded an age estimate of 380??140 Myr consistent with conventional interpolations. This method may also allow the unroofing of deeply buried sediments to be dated. ?? 1980 Nature Publishing Group.

Nature

Response of nutrient limitation to invasive fish suppression: How carcasses and analog pellets alter periphyton

The native Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri Jordan and Gilbert, 1883) population in Yellowstone Lake, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA, is in decline because of competition from the introduced, invasive Lake Trout ( Salvelinus namaycush Walbaum in Artedi, 1792). Gillnetting is used to suppress adult Lake Trout; however, methods are being developed to suppress embryos, including adding Lake Trout carcasses and carcass-analog pellets to spawning sites. Decomposing carcasses and analog pellets cause decreased dissolved oxygen concentrations thereby leading to Lake Trout embryo mortality, but the effects of these methods on primary producers are unknown. We deployed in-situ nutrient diffusing substrates (NDS) at 3 spawning sites. The 1 st site was treated with carcasses, the 2 nd site was treated with analog pellets, and a 3 rd lacked treatment (control). To estimate how suppression measures may alter nutrient limitation, we measured algal biomass in 6 NDS amendments at each site: nothing (control), N, P, N + P, ground carcasses, or pulverized analog pellets. We deployed 5 replicates of each amendment at each site before and after treating whole sites. N and P co-limited periphyton before carcasses or analog pellets were added to spawning sites ( p < 0.01); however, nutrients were not limiting after the treatments were added to spawning sites ( p = 0.31–1). Algal biomass was 4× higher after whole-site carcass treatments. In contrast, analog pellets appeared to suppress algal biomass in the amendments (20% of NDS at the control site post-treatment) and in the treatment plot (33% of pre-treatment biomass at analog pellet site). We also measured how individual ingredients in analog pellets altered periphyton biomass, which suggested that vitamin E, estrogen, and soybean oil ingredients reduced the growth of primary producers. Suppression methods may stimulate or reduce algal biomass, depending on the methods used, which could have cascading effects on food webs and potentially reduce the success of the control measures. Estimating how different Lake Trout suppression methods may alter basal resources in the littoral zone of Yellowstone Lake will help natural resource agencies develop effective plans to control invasive predators at early life stages while minimally altering ecosystems.

Wyoming

Potential nontarget effects of Metarhizium anisopliae (Deuteromycetes) used for biological control of ticks (Acari: Ixodidae)

The potential for nontarget effects of the entomopathogenic fungus Metarhizium anisopliae (Metschnikoff) Sorokin, when used for biological control of ticks, was assessed in laboratory trials. Fungal pathogenicity was studied against convergent ladybird beetles, Hippodamia convergens Guérin-Méneville, house crickets, Acheta domesticus (L.), and the milkweed bugs Oncopeltus fasciatus (Dallas). Fungal spores applied with a spray tower produced significant mortality in H. convergens and A. domesticus , but effects on O. fasciatus were marginal. Placing treated insects with untreated individuals resulted in mortality from horizontal transmission to untreated beetles and crickets, but not milkweed bugs. Spread of fungal infection in the beetles resulted in mortality on days 4–10 after treatment, while in crickets mortality was on day 2 after treatment, suggesting different levels of pathogenicity and possibly different modes of transmission. Therefore, M. anisopliae varies in pathogenicity to different insects. Inundative applications can potentially affect nontarget species, but M. anisopliae is already widely distributed in North America, so applications for tick control generally would not introduce a novel pathogen into the environment. Pathogenicity in lab trials does not, by itself, demonstrate activity under natural conditions, so field trials are needed to confirm these results and to assess methods to minimize nontarget exposure.

Environmental Entomology

Assessment method for epithermal gold deposits in northeast Washington State using weights-of-evidence GIS modeling

The weights-of-evidence analysis, a quantitative mineral resource mapping tool, is used to delineate favorable areas for epithermal gold deposits and to predict future exploration activity of the mineral industry for similar deposits in a four-county area (222 x 277 km), including the Okanogan and Colville National Forests of northeastern Washington. Modeling is applied in six steps: (1) building a spatial digital database, (2) extracting predictive evidence for a particular deposit, based on an exploration model, (3) calculating relative weights for each predictive map, (4) combining the geologic evidence maps to predict the location of undiscovered mineral resources and (5) measuring the intensity of recent exploration activity by use of mining claims on federal lands, and (6) combining mineral resource and exploration activity into an assessment model of future mining activity. The analysis is accomplished on a personal computer using ArcView GIS platform with Spatial Analyst and Weights-of-Evidence software. In accord with the descriptive model for epithermal gold deposits, digital geologic evidential themes assembled include lithologic map units, thrust faults, normal faults, and igneous dikes. Similarly, geochemical evidential themes include placer gold deposits and gold and silver analyses from stream sediment (silt) samples from National Forest lands. Fifty mines, prospects, or occurrences of epithermal gold deposits, the training set, define the appropriate a really-associated terrane. The areal (or spatial) correlation of each evidential theme with the training set yield predictor theme maps for lithology, placer sites and normal faults. The weights-of-evidence analysis disqualified the thrust fault, dike, and gold and silver silt analyses evidential themes because they lacked spatial correlation with the training set. The decision to accept or reject evidential themes as predictors is assisted by considering probabilistic data consisting of weights and contrast values calculated for themes according to areal correlation with the training sites. Predictor themes having acceptable weights and contrast values are combined into a preliminary model to predict the locations of undiscovered epithermal gold deposits. This model facilitates ranking of tracts as non-permissive, permissive or favorable categories based on exclusionary, passive, and active criteria through evaluation of probabilistic data provided by interaction of predictor themes. The method is very similar to the visual inspection method of drawing conclusions from anomalies on a manually overlain system of maps. This method serves as a model for future mineral assessment procedures because of its objective nature. To develop a model to predict future exploration activity, the locations of lode mining claims were summarized for 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1996. Land parcels containing historic claims were identified either as those with mining claims present in 1980 or valid claims present in 1985. Current claim parcels were identified as those containing valid lode claims in either 1990 or 1996. A consistent parcel contains both historic and current claims. The epithermal gold and mining claim activity models were combined into an assessment (or mineral resource-activity) model to assist in land use decisions by providing a prediction of mineral exploration activity on federal land in the next decade. Ranks in the assessment model are: (1) no activity, (2) low activity, (3) low to moderate activity, (4) moderate activity and (5) high activity.

Washington

Incorporating induced seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model: results of the 2014 workshop and sensitivity studies

The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated in 2014 to account for new methods, input models, and data necessary for assessing the seismic ground shaking hazard from natural (tectonic) earthquakes. The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model project uses probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to quantify the rate of exceedance for earthquake ground shaking (ground motion). For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model assessment, the seismic hazard from potentially induced earthquakes was intentionally not considered because we had not determined how to properly treat these earthquakes for the seismic hazard analysis. The phrases &ldquo;potentially induced&rdquo; and &ldquo;induced&rdquo; are used interchangeably in this report, however it is acknowledged that this classification is based on circumstantial evidence and scientific judgment. For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model update, the potentially induced earthquakes were removed from the NSHM&rsquo;s earthquake catalog, and the documentation states that we would consider alternative models for including induced seismicity in a future version of the National Seismic Hazard Model. As part of the process of incorporating induced seismicity into the seismic hazard model, we evaluate the sensitivity of the seismic hazard from induced seismicity to five parts of the hazard model: (1) the earthquake catalog, (2) earthquake rates, (3) earthquake locations, (4) earthquake Mmax (maximum magnitude), and (5) earthquake ground motions. We describe alternative input models for each of the five parts that represent differences in scientific opinions on induced seismicity characteristics. In this report, however, we do not weight these input models to come up with a preferred final model. Instead, we present a sensitivity study showing uniform seismic hazard maps obtained by applying the alternative input models for induced seismicity. The final model will be released after further consideration of the reliability and scientific acceptability of each alternative input model. Forecasting the seismic hazard from induced earthquakes is fundamentally different from forecasting the seismic hazard for natural, tectonic earthquakes. This is because the spatio-temporal patterns of induced earthquakes are reliant on economic forces and public policy decisions regarding extraction and injection of fluids. As such, the rates of induced earthquakes are inherently variable and nonstationary. Therefore, we only make maps based on an annual rate of exceedance rather than the 50-year rates calculated for previous U.S. Geological Survey hazard maps.

Open-File Report

Profiles of reservoir properties of oil-bearing plays for selected petroleum provinces in the United States

Profiles of reservoir properties of oil-bearing plays for selected petroleum provinces in the United States were developed to characterize the database to be used for a potential assessment by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) of oil that would be technically recoverable by the application of enhanced oil recovery methods using injection of carbon dioxide (CO 2 -EOR). The USGS assessment methodology may require reservoir-level data for the purposes of screening conventional oil reservoirs and projecting CO 2 -EOR performance in terms of the incremental recoverable oil. The information used in this report is based on reservoir properties from the &ldquo;Significant Oil and Gas Fields of the United States Database&rdquo; prepared by Nehring Associates, Inc. (2012). As described by Nehring Associates, Inc., the database &ldquo;covers all producing provinces (basins) in the United States except the Appalachian Basin and the Cincinnati Arch.&rdquo; Under contract to the USGS, INTEK, Inc., developed and applied algorithms to estimate variables useful in projecting EOR performance at the reservoir level and to complete some partial reservoir records of the &ldquo;Significant Oil and Gas Fields of the United States Database&rdquo; (Nehring Associates, Inc., 2012). The augmented database is referred to here as the &ldquo;Comprehensive Resource Database&rdquo; (CRD). The CRD play and province classification scheme corresponds to the definitions used in the 1995 USGS National Oil and Gas Assessment (NOGA). The profiles in this report consist of a resource table and a six-part figure showing the variation of reservoir parameters selected because of their importance in the choice of a miscible or immiscible method for CO 2 -EOR and in the assessment of potential oil recovery using the EOR processes. A subset of these reservoirs may be available for either miscible- or immiscible-type flooding for CO 2 -EOR. Plays with fewer than 10 oil reservoirs were not graphed and were omitted from the province profiles. For this report and for the purposes of screening reservoirs as candidates for the application of CO 2 -EOR methods, oil reservoirs must have no more than 10,000 standard cubic feet of natural gas per barrel of oil at surface conditions. Oil-bearing plays presented in this report must contain at least one oil reservoir so defined. The profile plots allow geologists to evaluate the range of empirical and default values of the oil reservoir characteristics within a play and across plays that belong to the same province in the CRD. For most plays, the default estimates can be identified by the stacking of points at a single value on strip charts in the profiles. Reasonable default values should be within the range of the reservoir parameter values assigned by Nehring Associates, Inc. (2012), to reservoirs of that particular play. Each province profile figure consists of five strip charts and a boxplot. The five strip charts display for individual plays the following reservoir-fluid and reservoir properties: A , oil density (American Petroleum Institute [API] gravity in degrees); B , computed pseudo-Dykstra-Parsons coefficient; C , reservoir porosity (in percent); D , reservoir permeability (in millidarcies); and E , estimates of the original oil in place (OOIP) per unit volume of reservoir rock (in barrels per acre-foot). The OOIP per unit volume of reservoir rock is an indicator of the relative richness of the oil reservoir and is derived from estimates in the CRD of OOIP, reservoir acreage, and net pay. The net pay is the interval of productive reservoir rock. The same data for OOIP per unit volume are graphed as a strip chart ( E ) and a boxplot ( F ).

Open-File Report