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USGS2001

Coastal change analysis program implemented in Louisiana

Landsat Thematic Mapper images from 1990 to 1996 and collateral data sources were used to classify the land cover of the Mermentau River Basin (MRB) within the Chenier Plain of coastal Louisiana. Landcover classes followed the definition of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Coastal Change Analysis Program; however, classification methods had to be developed as part of this study for attainment of these national classification standards. Classification method developments were especially important when classes were spectrally inseparable, when classes were part of spatial and spectral continuums, when the spatial resolution of the sensor included more than one landcover type, and when human activities caused abnormal transitions in the landscape. Most classification problems were overcome by using one or a combination of techniques, such as separating the MRB into subregions of commonality, applying masks to specific land mixtures, and highlighting class transitions between years that were highly unlikely. Overall, 1990, 1993, and 1996 classification accuracy percentages (associated kappa statistics) were 80% (0.79), 78% (0.76), and 86% (0.84), respectively. Most classification errors were associated with confusion between managed (cultivated land) and unmanaged grassland classes; scrub shrub, grasslands and forest classes; water, unconsolidated shore and bare land classes; and especially in 1993, between water and floating vegetation classes. Combining cultivated land and grassland classes and water and floating vegetation classes into single classes accuracies for 1990, 1993, and 1996 increased to 82%, 83%, and 90%, respectively. To improve the interpretation of landcover change, three indicators of landcover class stability were formulated. Location stability was defined as the percentage of a landcover class that remained as the same class in the same location at the beginning and the end of the monitoring period. Residence stability was defined as the percent change in each class within the entire MRB during the monitoring period. Turnover was defined as the addition of other landcover classes to the target landcover class during the defined monitoring period. These indicators allowed quick assessment of the dynamic nature of landcover classes, both in reference to a spatial location and to retaining their presence throughout the MRB. Examining the landcover changes between 1990 to 1993 and 1993 to 1996, led us to five principal findings: (1) Landcover turnover is maintaining a near stable logging cycle, although the locations of grassland, scrub shrub, and forest areas involved in the cycle appeared to change. (2) Planting of seedlings is critical to maintaining cycle stability. (3) Logging activities tend to replace woody land mixed forests with woody land evergreen forests. (4) Wetland estuarine marshes are expanding slightly. (5) Wetland palustrine marshes and mature forested wetlands in the MRB are relatively stable.

Louisiana↗

USGS2012

Morphometric variability within the axial zone of the southern Juan de Fuca Ridge: Interpretation from Sea MARC II, Sea MARC I, and deep-sea photography

The morphometric characteristics of the axial regions of oceanic spreading centers are determined by (1) the type of volcanic flows, (2) the relation between primary volcanic relief (on a scale of a few meters to tens of meters) and degree of sediment cover, and (3) the extent of surficial expression and timing of tectonic disruption of the young oceanic crust. Even within a single, continuous, linear spreading-ridge segment with relatively uniform axial valley dimensions over a distance of 50 or more kilometers, such as along the southern Juan de Fuca Ridge, the changes in morphometric characteristics along axis within the youngest crust indicate distinct variation in tectonic and volcanic activity over short distances within short time periods. An integrated analysis of Sea MARC I, Sea MARC II, and photographic data for the southernmost continuous segment of the Juan de Fuca Ridge shows that generalizations about tectonic and volcanic processes at spreading ridges must consider both the temporal scale of processes as well as the physical scales of observations if predictive models are to be successful. Comparison of the morphometric expression within the major hydrothermal vent area and the rest of the southernmost ridge segment suggests that the mapped distribution of hydrothermal vents may reflect the extent of survey effort rather than uniqueness of geologic setting.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2000

On the modified Mercalli intensities and magnitudes of the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes

We reexamine original felt reports from the 1811–1812 New Madrid earthquakes and determine revised isoseismal maps for the three principal mainshocks. In many cases we interpret lower values than those assigned by earlier studies. In some cases the revisions result from an interpretation of original felt reports with an appreciation for site response issues. Additionally, earlier studies had assigned modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) values of V-VII to a substantial number of reports that we conclude do not describe damage commensurate with intensities this high. We investigate several approaches to contouring the MMI values using both analytical and subjective methods. For the first mainshock on 02∶15 LT December 16, 1811, our preferred contouring yields M ω7.2–7.3 using the area-moment regressions of Johnston [1996]. For the 08∶00 LT on January 23, 1812, and 03∶45 LT on February 7, 1812, mainshocks, we obtain M ω7.0 and M ω7.4–7.5, respectively. Our magnitude for the February mainshock is consistent with the established geometry of the Reelfoot fault, which all evidence suggests to have been the causative structure for this event. We note that the inference of lower magnitudes for the New Madrid events implies that site response plays a significant role in controlling seismic hazard at alluvial sites in the central and eastern United States. We also note that our results suggest that thrusting may have been the dominant mechanism of faulting associated with the 1811–1812 sequence.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee↗

USGS2002

Plume-driven plumbing and crustal formation in Iceland

Through combination of surface wave and body wave constraints we derive a three-dimensional (3-D) crustal S velocity model and Moho map for Iceland. It reveals a vast plumbing system feeding mantle plume melt into upper crustal magma chambers where crustal formation takes place. The method is based on the partitioned waveform inversion to which we add additional observations. Love waves from six local events recorded on the HOTSPOT- SIL networks are fitted, S n travel times from the same events measured, previous observations of crustal thickness are added, and all three sets of constraints simultaneously inverted for our 3-D model. In the upper crust (0–15 km) an elongated low-velocity region extends along the length of the Northern, Eastern and Western Neovolcanic Zones. The lowest velocities (−7%) are found at 5–10 km below the two most active volcanic complexes: Hekla and Bárdarbunga-Grímsvötn. In the lower crust (>15 km) the low-velocity region can be represented as a vertical cylinder beneath central Iceland. The low-velocity structure is interpreted as the thermal halo of pipe work which connects the region of melt generation in the uppermost mantle beneath central Iceland to active volcanoes along the neovolcanic zones. Crustal thickness in Iceland varies from 15–20 km beneath the Reykjanes Peninsula, Krafla and the extinct Snæfellsnes rift zone, to 46 km beneath central Iceland. The average crustal thickness is 29 km. The variations in thickness can be explained in terms of the temporal variation in plume productivity over the last ∼20 Myr, the Snæfellsnes rift zone being active during a minimum in plume productivity. Variations in crustal thickness do not depart significantly from an isostatically predicted crustal thickness. The best fit linear isostatic relation implies an average density jump of 4% across the Moho. Rare earth element inversions of basalt compositions on Iceland suggest a melt thickness (i.e., crustal thickness) of 15–20 km, given passive upwelling. The observed crustal thickness of up to 46 km implies active fluxing of source material through the melt zone by the mantle plume at up to 3 times the passive rate.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1996

Equatorial origin for Lower Jurassic radiolarian chert in the Franciscan Complex, San Rafael Mountains, southern California

Lower Jurassic radiolarian chert sampled at two localities in the San Rafael Mountains of southern California (∼20 km north of Santa Barbara) contains four components of remanent magnetization. Components A , B ′, and B are inferred to represent uplift, Miocene volcanism, and subduction/accretion overprint magnetizations, respectively. The fourth component ( C ), isolated between 580° and 680°C, shows a magnetic polarity stratigraphy and is interpreted as a primary magnetization acquired by the chert during, or soon after, deposition. Both sequences are late Pliensbachian to middle Toarcian in age, and an average paleolatitude calculated from all tilt-corrected C components is 1° ± 3° north or south. This result is consistent with deposition of the cherts beneath the equatorial zone of high biologic productivity and is similar to initial paleolatitudes determined for chert blocks in northern California and Mexico. This result supports our model, in which deep-water Franciscan-type cherts were deposited on the Farallon plate as it moved eastward beneath the equatorial productivity high, were accreted to the continental margin at low paleolatitudes, and were subsequently distributed northward by strike-slip faulting associated with movements of the Kula, Farallon, and Pacific plates. Upper Cretaceous turbidites of the Cachuma Formation were sampled at Agua Caliente Canyon to determine a constraining paleolatitude for accretion of the Jurassic chert sequences. These apparently unaltered rocks, however, were found to be completely overprinted by the A component of magnetization. Similar in situ directions and demagnetization behaviors observed in samples of other Upper Cretaceous turbidite sequences in southern and Baja California imply that these rocks might also give unreliable results.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2013

The role of vermetid gastropods in the development of the Florida Middle Ground, northeast Gulf of Mexico

The Florida Middle Ground is a complex of north to northwest trending ridges that lie approximately 180 km northwest of Tampa Bay, Florida. The irregular ridges appear on the otherwise gently sloping West Florida shelf and exhibit between 10-15 m of relief. Modern studies interpret the ridges as remnants of a Holocene coral-reef buildup that today provide a hard substrate for growth of a variety of benthic organisms including hydrocorals, scleractinians, alcyonarians, and algae. Recent rotary coring reveals that the core of the eastern ridge of the Florida Middle Ground complex consists of unconsolidated marine calcareous muddy sand that is capped by a boundstone composed primarily of the sessile vermetid gastropod Petaloconchus sp., and overlays a weathered, fossiliferous limestone. Accelerator Mass Spectrometry radiocarbon ages (uncalibrated) on the 3.6-m thick vermetid worm rock indicate that it developed during a sea-level stillstand in the early Holocene (8,225 ±30-8,910 ± 25 yr B.P.). Our observations suggest that the Florida Middle Ground is a remnant of a series of shore parallel bars that formed in the early Holocene and were capped by a 3.6-m thick unit of vermetid gastropods. During a rapid sea-level rise that began ~8,000 yr B.P. the vermetids growth ceased and the worm rock preserved the ridges structure. Diver observations document that the edges of the ridges are currently being eroded and undermined by biological activity and current action, leading to calving of large capstone blocks.

Florida↗

USGS1978

Porphyry copper exploration model for northern Sonora, Mexico

The regional tectonic pattern of the porphyry copper province of northern Sonora, Mexico, is similar to, but more complex than, the Colorado mineral belt. Four northeast-trending shear zones, spaced at 30- to 50-kilometer intervals from Hermosillo, Mexico, north to Nogales, Mexico, are interpreted from analysis of lineament data from Landsat-1 images. From comparison with other areas, these zones are believed to have Precambrian ancestry. North-northwest-trending lineaments, which commonly occur along range fronts, are interpreted to be the principal basin and range faults. North-south- and west-northwest-trending lineaments are believed to be related to lesser faults and fractures. Areas of hydrothermal alteration have been mapped on a regional scale by use of digital image-processing techniques. These altered areas occur on the flanks of the northeast-trending shear zones, generally near intersections with north-northwest-trending lineaments. This tectonic framework with associated alteration is similar to patterns in the Colorado Plateau, the porphyry copper province of Arizona, and central Mexico and is supported by relationships found in limited local mapping. The pattern of northeast-trending shear zones and north-northwest-trending faults in northern Sonora closely resembles the tectonic framework of the Colorado mineral belt. The younger sedimentary and volcanic cover, however, has not been eroded in Sonora as it has been in the Colorado mineral belt. This comparison with the Colorado mineral belt suggests that mineral deposits are most likely to be found in altered areas where a northeast-trending shear zone is intersected by north-northwest-trending faults. Seven areas with these characteristics have been defined in Sonora and are being evaluated by means of regional geophysical and geochemical data.

Sonora↗

USGS2022

Typology development of earthquake displays in free-choice learning environments, to inform earthquake early warning education in the United States

Free-choice learning environments, such as museums, national parks, interpretive trails, and visitor centers, are trusted sources of information in their communities and support lifelong learning. Earthquake education in these spaces creates awareness of earthquake hazards and risk in areas where people live or visit and, in turn, may increase engagement in preparedness behavior. The ShakeAlert® Earthquake Early Warning System helps publics prepare by warning in advance of shaking from significant earthquakes along the West Coast of the United States. ShakeAlert can minimize earthquake damage by prompting automated actions (e.g., slowing trains, shutting off water valves) and prompting personal protective actions like “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” to significantly reduce damage, injury, and loss of life. Individuals and communities must have a basic understanding of earthquake hazards, as well as an awareness of ShakeAlert technology, to know how to respond if they feel shaking or receive an alert. Currently, there is a lack of contemporary scholarship on how free-choice learning environments approach earthquake education through exhibits and displays. We analyzed a sample of existing earthquake exhibits and their themes in the United States and explored how different display types are uniquely engaging. We found that most displays did not include information about how to prepare for an earthquake or associated protective actions. From this and the development of the typology, our research posits a foundational framework for how best to incorporate place-based learning on earthquakes and early warning into centers of free-choice learning which may apply to a range of other natural hazards and will enhance public awareness and safety.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

USGS2001

Modeling consolidation and dewatering near the toe of the northern Barbados accretionary complex

At the toe of the northern Barbados accretionary complex, temperature and pore water chemistry data indicate that fluid flow is channeled along the décollement and other shallow thrust faults. We examine mechanisms that may prevent consolidation and maintain high permeability over large sections of the décollement. High-resolution bulk density data from five boreholes show that the décollement is well consolidated at some sites while other sites remain underconsolidated. Underconsolidated décollement behavior is associated with kilometer-scale negative-polarity seismic reflections from the décollement plane that have been interpreted to be fluid conduits. We use a coupled fluid flow/consolidation model to simulate the loading response of a 10-km-long by 680-m-thick slice of sediment as it enters the accretionary complex. The simulations capture 185 ka (5 km) of subduction, with a load function representing the estimated effective stress of the overriding accretionary prism (3.8° taper angle). Simulation results of bulk density in the décollement 3.2 km arcward of the deformation front are compared with observations. The results show that persistent high pore pressures at the arcward edge of the simulation domain can explain underconsolidated behavior. The scenario is consistent with previous modeling results showing that high pore pressures can propagate intermittently along the décollement from deeper in the complex. Simulated seaward fluxes in the décollement (1–14 cm yr −1 ) lie between previous estimates from modeling studies of steady state (<1 cm yr −1 ) and transient (>1 m yr −1 ) flow. Maximum simulated instantaneous fluid sources (2.5×10 −13 s −1 ) are comparable to previous estimates. The simulations show minor swelling of incoming sediments (fluid sources ∼−3×10 −15 s −1 ) up to 3 km before subduction that may help to explain small-scale shearing and normal faulting proximal to the protodécollement.

Atlantic Ocean, Northern Barbados Accretionary Com↗

USGS2021

Geometry of the décollement below eastern Bangladesh and implications for seismic hazard

Eastern Bangladesh sits on the seismically active Chittagong-Myanmar fold and thrust belt (CMFB), a north-trending accretionary wedge on the eastern side of the India-Eurasia collision. Earthquakes on the basal décollement and associated thrusts within the CMFB present a hazard to this densely populated region. In this study, we interpret 28 seismic reflection profiles from both published and unpublished sources to constrain the depth of the basal décollement. To convert profiles from the time domain to the depth domain, we integrate sonic log and seismic stacking velocity data to generate time-velocity relationships for different parts of the CMFB. Our analysis reveals that the décollement is ∼9 km deep in northeast and southeast Bangladesh, but shallows to ∼5 km in east-central Bangladesh. The décollement has an area of 7.25 × 10 4 km 2 (∼150 × 450 km), making it capable of an Mw 8.5 earthquake. However, the warped geometry of this fault might act as a rupture barrier were a large earthquake to occur on the décollement. Our combined velocity and fault model lay the groundwork for future studies to address seismic segmentation, ground shaking, and rupture modeling in the CMFB. Finally, we use our compiled data set to analyze the evolution of fold kinematics in the CMFB. We observe that folding style and failure mode varies, from mainly ductile deformation in the foreland to mainly brittle in the hinterland. The dual-failure modes within the CMFB support the hypothesis that a region with ductile deformation may still be capable of seismic behavior.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗

USGS1975

Structure and Paleozoic stratigraphy of a complex of thrust plates in the Fish Creek Reservoir area, south-central Idaho

Permian, Pennsylvanian, Mississippian, Devonian, and Silurian marine rocks of diverse facies are brought together in a complex of six thrust sheets in the Fish Creek Reservoir area on the north edge of the Snake River Plain, Idaho. The lowest structural element, the parautochthon, is made of more than 450 m (1,500 ft) of folded and faulted Devonian miogeosynclinal carbonate rocks present in a 6.5-km 2 (2.5-mi 2 ) window. Along the east margin of the window, a sliver of continental margin transitional carbonate rocks of Early Devonian and Late Silurian age assigned to the Roberts Mountains Formation is thrust over the miogeosynclinal rocks. The window of middle Paleozoic rocks is overridden along the Fish Creek thrust fault by the flysch facies of the Copper Basin Formation, a turbidite-submarine-fan sequence more than 1,000 m (3,300 ft) thick, of Mississippian age. About 4.8 km (3 mi) southwest of the window, about 100 m (300 ft) of deepwater siliceous oceanic facies clastic rocks are exposed, which are assigned with question to the Milligen(?) Formation of Devonian age. These clastic rocks are interpreted to be thrust over the Copper Basin Formation. The highest structural elements are sequences more than 610 m (2,000 ft) thick of interbedded sandy and conglomeratic limestones, quartzites, and conglomerates and interbedded siltstones and argillites of the Wood River Formation of Middle Pennsylvanian to Early Permian age. The Wood River Formation is in thrust contact with the Milligen(?) Formation in the southwest part of the mapped area and with Copper Basin Formation along the west side of Fish Creek Reservoir. All the thrust sheets have moved eastward. The minimum distance moved is estimated from sedimentation models and facies reconstructions to range from perhaps several kilometres for the allochthon of the Roberts Mountains Formation to 48 km (30 mi) for the Milligen(?) Formation allochthon. The principal period of thrusting was post-Early Permian (post-Wood River Formation) and preEocene (pre-Challis Volcanics) and is of probable Sevier age. Middle Paleozoic rocks of the Milligen and Roberts Mountains Formations, however, also may have been involved in an earlier period of thrusting of latest Devonian to earliest Mississippian age related to the Antler orogeny. The thrust sheets were deformed into a northwest-trending dome in late Mesozoic time and were broken by basin-range faults during the Tertiary.

Idaho↗

USGS2012

Water-soluble material on aerosols collected within volcanic eruption clouds

In February and March of 1978, filter samplers mounted on an aircraft were used to collect the aerosol fraction of the eruption clouds from three active Guatemalan volcanoes (Fuego, Pacaya, and Santiaguito). The samples were collected on Teflon (Fluoropore) filters with a nominal pore diameter of 0.5μm. The mass of air sampled by the filters ranged from 0.15 to 6.6 kg. The particulate material collected consisted of fragments of angular silicate ash and droplets of what is interpreted as dilute H 2 SO 4 and HCl. After collection of the samples, each filter was rinsed with 60 ml of distilled-deionized water. Splits of each extract were centrifuged to remove particles greater than or equal to 0.1 μm in diameter, acidified, and analyzed for B, Ba, Be, Ca, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Pb, Si, Sr, V, and Zn by inductively coupled plasma—optical emission spectroscopy. Separate splits were analyzed for F and Cl by specific-ion-electrode methods and for U by a fission track technique. The elements dissolved in the aqueous extracts represent components of water-soluble material either formed directly in the eruption cloud or derived from interaction of ash particles and aerosol components of the plume. Calculations of enrichment factors, based upon concentration ratios, showed the elements most enriched in the extracts relative to bulk ash composition were Cd, Cu, V, F, Cl, Zn, and Pb. These elements represent a subset (with the addition of Cl and F) of elements previously reported enriched in atmospheric aerosols in remote regions as well as in volcanic areas. This suggests that some of the enriched elements were widely dispersed as volatile halides emitted from a volcanic source.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans↗

USGS2019

India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition-02: Operational and technical summary

The India National Gas Hydrate Program is being steered by the government of India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG) with participation of Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH), Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC), and the National Oil Companies and Research Institutes of India. The India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01 (NGHP-01) established the presence of gas hydrate in the Krishna Godavari (KG) and Mahanadi Basins and in the offshore area of the Andaman Sea Basin. However, the gas hydrates discovered during NGHP-01 were mainly distributed as fracture-filling material in fine-grained clay-rich sediments. The India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) was carried out with an objective to discover gas hydrate in sand-rich sediment along the eastern offshore margin of India. ONGC planned and executed NGHP-02 on the behalf of the MoPNG. NGHP-02 started on March 3, 2015 and was completed on July 28, 2015 (total 147 days) using the Japanese scientific Drilling Vessel Chikyu (D/V Chikyu). During NGHP-02, 42 holes at 25 sites were drilled, cored, and/or surveyed with downhole logging tools. These sites were located in four areas along the eastern margin of India and formally named Area A (Mahanadi Basin, three sites), Area B (northern part of the KG-Basin, twelve sites), Area C (central part of the KG-Basin, six sites), and Area E (southern part to the KG-Basin, four sites). All 25 sites established during NGHP-02 were first drilled and logged with logging-while-drilling (LWD) tools and an additional 17 holes were then drilled and/or cored with conventional coring tools (HPCS/ESCS) or pressure coring tools (PCTB). Wireline logging was conducted in 10 holes and formation tests using a dual packer Modular Formation Dynamics Tester (MDT) tool were carried out in two holes. The onboard science team used the laboratory facilities on the D/V Chikyu to examine and analyse the physical properties, geochemistry, and sedimentology of all the cores collected during the expedition. Core samples were also analysed in additional post-expedition shore-based studies conducted in numerous domestic and international gas hydrate research laboratories. The NGHP-02 sediment cores were archived at the National Gas Hydrate Core Repository in Mumbai (India), which is associated with the ONGC Gas Hydrate Research and Technology Centre (GHRTC). The necessary data for characterizing the occurrence of gas hydrate, such as interstitial water chlorinities, core-derived gas chemistry, physical and sedimentological properties, thermal images of the recovered cores, pressure core and downhole measured logging data (LWD and/or conventional wireline log data), were obtained from most of the drill sites established during NGHP-02. Almost all the drill sites yielded evidence for the occurrence of gas hydrate; however, the inferred in situ concentration of gas hydrate varied substantially from site to site. For the most part, the interpretation of downhole logging data, core thermal images, interstitial water analyses, and pressure core images from the sites established during NGHP-02 indicate that the occurrence of concentrated gas hydrate is mostly associated with coarser grained (sand-rich) sediments. This paper presents the operational and technical summary of NGHP-02. NGHP-02 started on March 3, 2015 and was completed on July 28, 2015 (total 147 days) using the Japanese scientific Drilling Vessel Chikyu (D/V Chikyu). During NGHP-02, 42 holes at 25 sites were drilled, cored, and/or surveyed with downhole logging tools. These sites were located in four areas along the eastern margin of India and formally named Area A (Mahanadi Basin, three sites), Area B (northern part of the KG-Basin, twelve sites), Area C (central part of the KG-Basin, six sites), and Area E (southern part to the KG-Basin, four sites). All 25 sites established during NGHP-02 were first drilled and logged with logging-while-drilling (LWD) to

Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology↗

USGS2004

Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey

New earthquake probability calculations are made for the Sea of Marmara region and the city of Istanbul, providing a revised forecast and an evaluation of time-dependent interaction techniques. Calculations incorporate newly obtained bathymetric images of the North Anatolian fault beneath the Sea of Marmara [Le Pichon et al., 2001; Armijo et al., 2002]. Newly interpreted fault segmentation enables an improved regional A.D. 1500-2000 earthquake catalog and interevent model, which form the basis for time-dependent probability estimates. Calculations presented here also employ detailed models of coseismic and postseismic slip associated with the 17 August 1999 M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to investigate effects of stress transfer on seismic hazard. Probability changes caused by the 1999 shock depend on Marmara Sea fault-stressing rates, which are calculated with a new finite element model. The combined 2004-2034 regional Poisson probability of M≥7 earthquakes is ~38%, the regional time-dependent probability is 44 ± 18%, and incorporation of stress transfer raises it to 53 ± 18%. The most important effect of adding time dependence and stress transfer to the calculations is an increase in the 30 year probability of a M ??? 7 earthquake affecting Istanbul. The 30 year Poisson probability at Istanbul is 21%, and the addition of time dependence and stress transfer raises it to 41 ± 14%. The ranges given on probability values are sensitivities of the calculations to input parameters determined by Monte Carlo analysis; 1000 calculations are made using parameters drawn at random from distributions. Sensitivities are large relative to mean probability values and enhancements caused by stress transfer, reflecting a poor understanding of large-earthquake aperiodicity.

Sea Of Marmara↗

USGS2002

Topographic stress perturbations in southern Davis Mountains, west Texas 1. Polarity reversal of principal stresses

We have applied a previously developed analytical stress model to interpret subsurface stress conditions inferred from acoustic televiewer logs obtained in two municipal water wells located in a valley in the southern Davis Mountains near Alpine, Texas. The appearance of stress-induced breakouts with orientations that shift by 90° at two different depths in one of the wells is explained by results from exact solutions for the effects of valleys on gravity and tectonically induced subsurface stresses. The theoretical results demonstrate that above a reference depth termed the hinge point, a location that is dependent on Poisson's ratio, valley shape, and magnitude of the maximum horizontal tectonic stress normal to the long axis of the valley, horizontal stresses parallel to the valley axis are greater than those normal to it. At depths below this hinge point the situation reverses and horizontal stresses normal to the valley axis are greater than those parallel to it. Application of the theoretical model at Alpine is accommodated by the fact that nearby earthquake focal mechanisms establish an extensional stress regime with the regional maximum horizontal principal stress aligned perpendicular to the valley axis. We conclude that the localized stress field associated with a valley setting can be highly variable and that breakouts need to be examined in this context when estimating the orientations and magnitudes of regional principal stresses.

Texas↗

USGS2010

Parametric study of the physical properties of hydrate-bearing sand, silt, and clay sediments: 1. Electromagnetic properties

The marked decrease in bulk electrical conductivity of sediments in the presence of gas hydrates has been used to interpret borehole electrical resistivity logs and, to a lesser extent, the results of controlled source electromagnetic surveys to constrain the spatial distribution and predicted concentration of gas hydrate in natural settings. Until now, an exhaustive laboratory data set that could be used to assess the impact of gas hydrate on the electromagnetic properties of different soils (sand, silt, and clay) at different effective stress and with different saturations of hydrate has been lacking. The laboratory results reported here are obtained using a standard geotechnical cell and the hydrate-formed tetrahydrofuran (THF), a liquid that is fully miscible in water and able to produce closely controlled saturations of hydrate from dissolved phase. Both permittivity and electrical conductivity are good indicators of the volume fraction of free water in the sediment, which is in turn dependent on hydrate saturation. Permittivity in the microwave frequency range is particularly predictive of free water content since it is barely affected by ionic concentration, pore structure, and surface conduction. Electrical conductivity (or resistivity) is less reliable for constraining water content or hydrate saturation: In addition to fluid-filled porosity, other factors, such as the ionic concentration of the pore fluid and possibly other conduction effects (e.g., surface conduction in high specific surface soils having low conductivity pore fluid), also influence electrical conductivity.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2012

Seismicity and shear strain in the southern Great Basin of Nevada and California

This study examines the relationship between the distribution of small earthquakes (M L ≤4.3) and mechanisms of strain accumulation and relaxation in an area with long repeat times between large events, the Southern Great Basin Seismic Network (SGBSN) region. The Great Basin is a unique continental extensional province characterized by normal and strike-slip faulting, high heat flow, crust of thin to normal thickness, and high elevations. The SGBSN is operated to provide data to address suitability issues pertaining to Yucca Mountain, Nevada which is being evaluated as a potential site for a national mined geologic nuclear waste repository. Suitability issues include estimation of the probability of occurrence of future damaging earthquakes, the characterization of the mechanisms that drive hydrologic flow, and the identification of fractures (faults) that might act as flow conduits or barriers. This study attempts to explain the distribution of small earthquakes in terms of spatial variations in the shear strain field; where strain concentrates there should be a greater number of small earthquakes. Strain field models are constructed under the assumption that long term fault behavior perturbs an otherwise uniform strain field. These strain field models are then interpreted with regard to the regional tectonics and site suitability issues. Modeling results provide one possible explanation of why earthquake clusters cover regions much larger than the surface projections of any of mapped major faults; clusters in a wide band along and extending northeast of the northern half of the Furnace Creek fault may correspond to elevated shear strains along the fault and a broad cluster in the Pahranagat Shear Zone may be associated with shear strain arising from a distribution of smaller localized faults. The relatively large number of small earthquakes in the southern and eastern portions of the Nevada Test Site is consistent with the strain field models. A minimum in shear strain at Yucca Mountain is predicted by all models consistent with an almost total lack of earthquakes observed there. The region to the west of the Death Valley/Furnace Creek fault system, the portion of the study area with the most active deformation but few small earthquakes, is an area of low shear strain. A possible reason for this is that the fault configuration in the area is optimal for accommodating regional deformation via large earthquakes or creep. While there is also a relative lack of earthquakes at Yucca Mountain, this may be indicative of a lack of accumulating strain energy and thus, a lower potential for a large earthquake.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2005

Coseismic slip distribution of the 1923 Kanto earthquake, Japan

The slip distribution associated with the 1923 M = 7.9 Kanto, Japan, earthquake is reexamined in light of new data and modeling. We utilize a combination of first-order triangulation, second-order triangulation, and leveling data in order to constrain the coseismic deformation. The second-order triangulation data, which have not been utilized in previous studies of 1923 coseismic deformation, are associated with only slightly smaller errors than the first-order triangulation data and expand the available triangulation data set by about a factor of 10. Interpretation of these data in terms of uniform-slip models in a companion study by Nyst et al. shows that a model involving uniform coseismic slip on two distinct rupture planes explains the data very well and matches or exceeds the fit obtained by previous studies, even one which involved distributed slip. Using the geometry of the Nyst et al. two-plane slip model, we perform inversions of the same geodetic data set for distributed slip. Our preferred model of distributed slip on the Philippine Sea plate interface has a moment magnitude of 7.86. We find slip maxima of ???8-9 m beneath Odawara and ???7-8 m beneath the Miura peninsula, with a roughly 2:1 ratio of strike-slip to dip-slip motion, in agreement with a previous study. However, the Miura slip maximum is imaged as a more broadly extended feature in our study, with the high-slip region continuing from the Miura peninsula to the southern Boso peninsula region. The second-order triangulation data provide good evidence for ???3 m right-lateral strike slip on a 35-km-long splay structure occupying the volume between the upper surface of the descending Philippine Sea plate and the southern Boso peninsula. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗