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USGS2004

Status assessment and conservation plan for the yellow-billed loon (Gavia adamsii)

Because of its restricted range, small population size, specific habitat requirements, and perceived threats to its breeding habitat, the Yellow-billed Loon (Gavia adamsii) is a species of conservation concern to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the subject of a petition for listing under the Endangered Species Act. This Status Assessment synthesizes current information on population size, trends, and potential threats to Yellow-billed Loons, and the Conservation Plan identifies research and monitoring activities that would contribute to the conservation of this species. The preparation of this report was requested and funded by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Nongame Bird Office, Region 7.The Status Assessment and Conservation Plan for the Yellow-billed Loon can be summarized as follows:? Northern Alaska breeding grounds support an average of 3,369 individuals, including <1,000 nesting pairs in most years. The Yellow-billed Loon ranks as one of the 10 rarest birds that breeds regularly within the main land U.S. and one of only 20 with a North American population <16,000 individuals (Section 6-E).? There is no evidence of a long-term trend in the Yellow-billed Loon population index since 1986 (-0.9% annual change), but interpretation of surveys is complicated by changes in observers and high annual variation, and the 95% confidence interval is large (-3.6% to +1.8% annual change). The low reproductive potential of Yellow-billed Loons suggests that recovery from a substantial decline would not occur rapidly. There are no systematic surveys of Canadian and Russian breeding populations (Section 6-F).? The expansion of the oil industry into prime Yellow-billed Loon breeding habitat is a recent occurrence and we lack the necessary information to accurately predict its effect on the population. Most of northern Alaska?s Yellow-billed Loons (91%) occur on the National Petroleum Reserve?Alaska, virtually all of which is open or proposed to be opened to development and where there is no permanent or legal protection of Yellow-billed Loon habitat (Section 7-A).? Other potential factors affecting the population are also addressed, such as contaminants, subsistence hunting, by catch in subsistence and commercial fisheries on the breeding and wintering grounds, and health of the marine ecosystem off the coast of East Asia where Alaska?s Yellow-billed Loons winter, but data are lacking to reach strong conclusions on most issues.? The conservation goal adopted by the Alaska Loon and Grebe Working Group for the Yellow-billed Loon is to maintain a stable breeding population, of current size and distribution, across the extent of the loon?s breeding range in Alaska. The Conservation Plan, designed to provide information necessary to meet this goal, puts forth seven objectives: 1) Conduct annual population surveys having negligible bias and 80% statistical power to detect a 3.4% annual decline, a decline that would result in a 50% loss of the population within 20 years; 2) Obtain an unbiased and reliable estimate of the size of Alaska?s breeding population; 3) Identify geographic regions and habitats of importance during breeding, staging, and wintering periods; 4) Use demographic models to evaluate risks to the population; 5) Identify potential effects of oil development on the breeding grounds and measures necessary to minimize the effects; 6) Evaluate the magnitude of subsistence harvest and by catch and their potential effects on the population; 7) Develop a continent-wide and range-wide context for Alaska?s population and habitat objectives.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2016

Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043

Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in the San Francisco Bay region before 2043. Earthquakes this large are capable of causing widespread damage; therefore, communities in the region should take simple steps to help reduce injuries, damage, and disruption, as well as accelerate recovery from these earthquakes.

California↗

USGS2013

Geologic framework for the national assessment of carbon dioxide storage resources: Columbia Basin of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho, and the Western Oregon-Washington basins

The 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (Public Law 110–140) directs the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to conduct a national assessment of potential geologic storage resources for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). The methodology used by the USGS for the national CO 2 assessment follows that of previous USGS work. The methodology is non-economic and intended to be used at regional to subbasinal scales. This report identifies and contains geologic descriptions of three storage assessment units (SAUs) in Eocene and Oligocene sedimentary rocks within the Columbia, Puget, Willapa, Astoria, Nehalem, and Willamette Basins of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho, and focuses on the characteristics, specified in the methodology, that influence the potential CO 2 storage resource in those SAUs. Specific descriptions of the SAU boundaries as well as their sealing and reservoir units are included. Properties for each SAU, such as depth to top, gross thickness, porosity, permeability, groundwater quality, and structural reservoir traps, are provided to illustrate geologic factors critical to the assessment. The designated sealing unit in the Columbia Basin is tentatively chosen to be the ubiquitous and thick Miocene Columbia River Basalt Group. As a result of uncertainties regarding the seal integrity of the Columbia River Basalt Group, the SAUs were not quantitatively assessed. Figures in this report show SAU boundaries and cell maps of well penetrations through sealing units into the top of the storage formations. The cell maps show the number of penetrating wells within one square mile and are derived from interpretations of incompletely attributed well data, a digital compilation that is known not to include all drilling. The USGS does not expect to know the location of all wells and cannot guarantee the amount of drilling through specific formations in any given cell shown on the cell maps.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2012

Recent strikes in South Africa’s platinum-group metal mines: effects upon world platinum-group metal supplies

The recent labor disputes over wages and working conditions that have affected South Africa’s three leading platinum-group metal (PGM) producers have affected an industry already plagued by market pressures and labor unrest and raised the specter of constraints in the world’s supply of these metals. Although low demand for these metals in 2011 and 2012 helped to offset production losses of recent years, and particularly those losses caused by the strikes in 2012, a prolonged resumption of strikes could cause severe shortages of iridium, platinum, rhodium, ruthenium, and, to a lesser extent, palladium.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1989

Acid rain publications by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1979-1989

Pollution of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems has been a concern to society since the burning of fossil fuels began in the industrial revolution. In the past decade or so, this concern has been heightened by evidence that chemical transformation in the atmosphere of combustion by-products and subsequent long-range transport can cause environmental damage in remote areas. The extent of this damage and the rates of ecological recovery were largely unknown. "Acid rain" became the environmental issue of the 1980's. To address the increasing concerns of the public, in 1980 the Federal government initiated a 10-year interagency research program to develop information that could be used by the President and the Congress in making decisions for emission controls. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has been an active participant in acid precipitation research. The Service provided support to a number of scientific conferences and forums, including the Action Seminar on Acid Precipitation held in Toronto, Canada, in 1979, an international symposium on Acidic Precipitation and Fishery Impacts in Northeastern North America in 1981, and a symposium on Acidic Precipitation and Atmospheric Deposition: A Western Perspective in 1982. These meetings as well as the growing involvement with the government's National Acidic Precipitation Assessment Program placed the Service in the lead in research on the biological effects of acidic deposition. Research projects have encompassed water chemistry, aquatic invertebrates, amphibians, fish, and waterfowl. Water quality surveys have been conducted to help determine the extent of acid precipitation effects in the northeast, Middle Atlantic, and Rocky Mountain regions. In addition to lake and stream studies, research in wetland and some terrestrial habitats has also been conducted. Specific projects have addressed important sport species such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), and striped bass (Morone saxatilis). Trace metal accumulation in fish has been investigated and a symposium sponsored on related work. U.S> Fish and Wildlife Service scientists serve as advisors and participants in research being conducted by industry, nonprofit groups, State and other Federal agencies. Researcher have worked closely with colleagues in Canada, England, Norway, Scotland, the Soviet Union, and Sweden to gain additional understanding of the problem. In 1982, the Service implemented a mitigation research program to provide resource managers with information to help them protect sensitive ecosystems, and rehabilitation methods for resources already affected by acidification. An international workshop was convened to outline the research needs. Several conferences were organized to develop appropriate field and laboratory procedures. Scientists with the mitigation research program are evaluating the ecological effects of liming (addition of base material) surface waters and surrounding watershed to provide buffering against acidic inputs. Through long-term cooperative project with States and other organizations, investigations are studying possible abatement methods for regions most affected by acidic deposition. To date, more than 200 reports the describe these studies have been published. These products include conference proceedings, journal articles, and in-house scientific publications. An education poster describing the effects of acid rain on aquatic ecosystems was developed and distributed to individuals, conservations and State organizations, and the public education system. This annotated bibliography lists current publications by Service authors, cooperators, or contractors on acid rain and related quality. Entire are arranged alphabetically by author surname. For further information about the research program, contact the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Acid Precipitation Section, National Fishery Research Center -- Leetown, Box 700, Kearneysville, WV 25430.

Biological Report↗

USGS2013

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese: cooperator report

This document describes progress to date on the development of a harvest‐management strategy for maintaining pink‐footed goose abundance near their target level by providing for sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. Many goose populations in western Europe have increased dramatically in recent decades. The Svalbard population of pink‐footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) is a good example, increasing from about 10 thousand individuals in the early 1960’s to roughly 80 thousand today. Although these geese are a highly valued resource, the growing numbers of geese are causing agricultural conflicts in wintering and staging areas. The African‐Eurasian Waterbird Agreement (AEWA; http://www.unep‐aewa.org/) calls for means to manage populations which cause conflicts with certain human economic activities. We compiled relevant demographic and weather data and specified an annual‐cycle model for pink-footed geese that reconciles the different dates of monitoring activities and the timing of harvest-management decisions. We then developed dynamic models for survival and reproductive processes and parameterized them using available data. By combining varying hypotheses about survival and reproduction, we developed a suite of nine models that represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent, and the extent to which spring temperatures are important. These nine models varied significantly in their predictions of the harvest required to stabilize current population size, ranging from a low of about 500 to a high of about 17 thousand. For comparison, the harvest in Norway and Denmark was about 11 thousand in 2011 and the population increased from 70 to 80 thousand. We relied on the passive form of adaptive management in formulating a harvest strategy. In passive adaptive management, alternative population models and their associated weights of evidence are explicitly considered in the development of an optimal harvest strategy. Unlike active adaptive management, however, there is no explicit consideration of how harvest management actions could reduce uncertainty as to the most appropriate model of population dynamics. In optimizing a harvest strategy, we assumed equal probabilities for all nine models and assumed relatively course control over harvest. We used a management objective that seeks to maximize sustainable harvest, but avoids harvest decisions that are expected to result in a subsequent population size different than the population goal of 60 thousand. Optimal harvest strategies were calculated using stochastic dynamic programming, and Monte Carlo simulations were used to investigate expected strategy performance. The optimal passive adaptive‐management strategy is expected to maintain mean population size near 60 thousand, regardless of the most appropriate model. However, mean harvest rates and harvests varied substantially depending on the most appropriate model of population dynamics. With an average number of days above freezing in May in Svalbard, optimal harvest rates (i.e., the proportion of the population to be harvested in autumn) increase rapidly once there are more than about 50 thousand birds in the population. Generally, optimal harvests were on the order of 10 – 20 thousand for population sizes > 60 thousand, and 0 – 5 thousand for population sizes < 60 thousand. For the observations of young of 15.4 thousand and adults of 54.6 thousand in autumn 2010, and 10 days above freezing in May 2011 (a relatively warm spring compared to the average of about 7), the optimal harvest rate in autumn of 2011 would have been 0.16, or a harvest of about 14 thousand. Based on the optimal strategy, hunting‐season closures would be required as the number of adults in the autumn population falls below about 52 thousand, regardless of the number of young in the population. As the number of adults and young decrease, the number of warm days in May required to keep the hunting season open increases. We also investigated the ability of the optimal strategy to stabilize the population at around 60 thousand birds, assuming varying values of the maximum harvest rate that could be implemented. Harvest strategies that contained a maximum harvest rate of 0.16 (equivalent to a harvest of about 17 thousand) were effective at stabilizing the population at 60 thousand within 4‐5 years, regardless of climate scenario. Harvest strategies with a maximum harvest rate of 0.12 (harvest ≈ 13 thousand) were also able to stabilize the population near 60 thousand, although it took more time. Harvest strategies with a maximum harvest rate of 0.08 (harvest ≈ 8 thousand) were unsuccessful at stabilizing the population at 60 thousand. Continued monitoring of the pink‐footed goose population on an annual basis is critical to an informed harvest management strategy. At a minimum, the ground census in November should be continued to determine population size and proportion of young. Continued estimates of harvest from Norway and Denmark are also necessary to help judge the credibility of the alternative population models. However, an adaptive management process that relies on periodic updating of model weights will depend on acquiring either estimates of the realized harvest rate of adults or the age composition of the harvest. We also recommend that a census conducted during spring migration be operationalized, and that estimates of survival based on mark‐recapture data be updated. Finally, the International Working Group has expressed a desire to adopt a three‐year cycle of decision making related to the regulation of pink‐footed goose harvests. The idea is that once a target harvest level is adopted, it would remain in place for three years, after which time population status would be assessed and a potentially new management action chosen. We have developed a preliminary framework to implement a three‐year cycle using stochastic dynamic programming, and we hope to have it fully operational later this year . We note, however, that application of this 3‐year framework will still require annual resource monitoring and assessments to facilitate learning, and to allow managers the opportunity to respond to any unforeseen change in resource conditions.

Report↗

USGS2009

Gap Analysis -A geographic approach to planning for biological diversity

The Mission of the Gap Analysis Project (GAP) is to promote conservation by providing broad geographic information on biological diversity to resource managers, planners, and policy makers who can use the information to make informed decisions. As part of the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII) —a collaborative program to provide increased access to data and information on the nation’s biological resources--GAP data and analytical tools have been used in hundreds of applications: from basic research to comprehensive state wildlife plans; from educational projects in schools to ecoregional assessments of biodiversity. The challenge: keeping common species common means protecting them BEFORE they become threatened. To do this on a state or regional basis requires key information such as land cover descriptions, predicted distribution maps for native animals, and an assessment of the level of protection currently given to those plants and animals. GAP works cooperatively with Federal, state, and local natural resource professionals and academics to provide this kind of information. GAP activities focus on the creation of state and regional databases and maps that depict patterns of land management, land cover, and biodiversity. These data can be used to identify “gaps” in conservation--instances where an animal or plant community is not adequately represented on the existing network of conservation lands. GAP is administered through the U.S. Geological Survey. Through building partnerships among disparate groups, GAP hopes to foster the kind of collaboration that is needed to address conservation issues on a broad scale.

GAP Bulletin↗

USGS2023

Community and citizen science on the Elwha River: Past, present, and future

This report reflects on the past, present, and potential future of community and citizen science (CCS) in the Elwha River watershed, with particular focus on the years before and after a major restoration event: the removal of two dams that had impacted the river system for a century. We ask: how does CCS feature in the Elwha story and how could it feature? We use the term CCS to reference the broad range of ways in which members of the public might participate in authentic science and monitoring processes, including students and both paid and unpaid interns: participants are individuals contributing to scientific projects without prior formal training in the topic. Removal of the Elwha dams was a large-scale, complex project, and communities had an important role to play: the Lower Elwha Klallam Tribe (LEKT) and other local groups were a large part of the original drive to remove the dams. Some funding and policy requirements for monitoring are ending, but there is still much to learn from the changes happening in the Elwha, requiring ongoing research and monitoring. In 2022, the Elwha scientific community came together in a multifaceted effort called the “Elwha ScienceScape” to mark the ten-year anniversary of dam removal and to plan for future monitoring. One of ScienceScape’s priorities is expanding CCS efforts, and because the Elwha dam removal is a powerful international symbol of large-scale watershed restoration, ScienceScape is well-positioned to inform and emphasize the potential role of CCS in dam removal worldwide. This report presents insights about Elwha CCS from an academic literature review and discussions with scientists and many others that have been working in the Elwha. We found that the history of CCS on the Elwha is important but understated, with few scientific papers acknowledging support by volunteers of various kinds. Recent and ongoing CCS projects on the Elwha tend to be focused on biological phenomena, and most are associated with educational opportunities (across many types of institutions) and paid internships. We also noted that most Elwha CCS projects required volunteers with particular pre-existing skill sets (e.g., botanical knowledge) or time to impart specialized training (e.g. boat use), leading many projects towards engagement with a smaller number of volunteers. Partners working in the Elwha are considering a wide range of potential new CCS projects, and these ideas are in varying stages of development. Many new projects would broaden public involvement in terms of the opportunities available and increase the variety of focal topics for research and monitoring. This increased breadth is promising: there are indications that the local community’s interests also range widely, from fish recovery after dam removal to dam removal impacts on humans. Elwha CCS projects have encountered some challenges and barriers, including the administrative burden of coordinating volunteers and managing liability concerns. But Elwha ScienceScape scientists are committed to the value that CCS brings both to the research itself as well as to those who participate in these projects. CCS can be a way to increase equity in science and engage people who would not otherwise participate in research, and in many cases the research simply wouldn’t be possible without their help. Support with project administration, volunteer management, and data management could help in expanding CCS efforts and broadening their inclusivity. More systematic tracking of CCS projects to assess how they contribute to research and to community and participant benefit could be helpful in establishing and maintaining a long-term CCS strategy in the Elwha.

Wshington↗

USGS2010

Filtering NetCDF Files by Using the EverVIEW Slice and Dice Tool

Network Common Data Form (NetCDF) is a self-describing, machine-independent file format for storing array-oriented scientific data. It was created to provide a common interface between applications and real-time meteorological and other scientific data. Over the past few years, there has been a growing movement within the community of natural resource managers in The Everglades, Fla., to use NetCDF as the standard data container for datasets based on multidimensional arrays. As a consequence, a need surfaced for additional tools to view and manipulate NetCDF datasets, specifically to filter the files by creating subsets of large NetCDF files. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM) group are working to address these needs with applications like the EverVIEW Slice and Dice Tool, which allows users to filter grid-based NetCDF files, thus targeting those data most important to them. The major functions of this tool are as follows: (1) to create subsets of NetCDF files temporally, spatially, and by data value; (2) to view the NetCDF data in table form; and (3) to export the filtered data to a comma-separated value (CSV) file format. The USGS and JEM will continue to work with scientists and natural resource managers across The Everglades to solve complex restoration problems through technological advances.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS1982

Pacific summary report 2: A revision of Outer Continental Shelf oil and gas activities in the Pacific (Southern California) and their onshore impacts: A summary report, May 1980

The Pacific Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) is an established hydrocarbon-producing region. Oil and gas have been produced from the Santa Barbara Channel (both State and Federal acreage) since 1896. Almost 77,000 barrels of oil are produced from the California Federal OCS each day as of December 1981, and leases on State tidelands produce about 40,000 barrels of oil per day. This highly developed area is, of course, but a small part of the Pacific OCS, which also includes Northern California, Washington, and Oregon. The petroleum industry has expressed interest in exploring frontier areas, and as frontier acreage is offered in future lease sales, exploration, development, and production may move out into deeper water. The technology is currently being developed and tested to allow deepwater exploration. To date, offshore drilling operations have resulted in the delineation of 11 offshore oil and gas fields and 2 gas fields in the Southern California OCS. A recent discovery off Point Arguello, California, may lead to delineation of a new field. Reserve estimates have been made for the known fields in the region. Remaining recoverable reserves are estimated at 787 million barrels of oil and over 1.7 trillion cubic feet of gas as of December 31, 1980. Estimates of undiscovered recoverable resources in the offshore Santa Maria Basin and Southern California OCS are over 3.5 billion barrels of oil and in excess of 5 trillion cubic feet of gas. To date, there have been seven oil and gas lease sales in the Pacific OCS Region. An average of one lease sale per year is scheduled through 1985. Industry interest indicates that the Santa Barbara Channel's potential has not yet been fully explored, and some basins to the south, as well as in the Santa Maria Basin, are now gaining considerable interest. Future exploratory activity in the San Pedro Bay and the Santa Maria Basin is likely to increase. Exploration, development, and production in the Pacific OCS Region are increasing at a moderate pace. Pipelines continue to be the preferred mode of transporting Pacific OCS hydrocarbons to shore. The State and the Federal Governments have expressed a commitment to the use of pipelines where possible and economically feasible. Tankers traveling in the Pacific and entering California ports carry, for the most part, imported oil. The region is active in OCS transportation planning; the Bureau of Land Management works through the Pacific States Regional Technical Working Group Committee. Onshore, the Petroleum Transportation Committee (formerly the Joint Government/Industry Pipeline Working Group) is evaluating a number of transportation scenarios. The nearshore and onshore petroleum processing facilities in the Pacific Region service onshore and offshore oil and gas exploration, development, and production, as well as the international oil market. Many of the onshore facilities have been in operation for years, supporting California's extensive onshore and offshore production. Several new facilities have been proposed, are currently under construction, or have recently opened. Shell Oil opened a crude oil distribution facility near Long Beach in December 1980. Operations began at Union Oil's Mandalay Beach separation and treatment plant in December 1981. The Pacific Offshore Pipeline Company, a subsidiary of the Pacific Lighting Corporation, is planning to build a gas treatment plant at Las Flores Canyon; completion of this project is scheduled for July 1983. It is expected that these new facilities, in addition to the established plants, will be able to accommodate any new OCS production in the near term from previously leased areas.

California↗

USGS2006

Field-based evaluation of two herbaceous plant community composition sampling methods for long-term monitoring in Northern Great Plains National Parks

The Northern Great Plains Inventory & Monitoring (I&M) Network (Network) of the National Park Service (NPS) consists of 13 NPS units in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and eastern Wyoming. The Network is in the planning phase of a long-term program to monitor the health of park ecosystems. Plant community composition is one of the 'Vital Signs,' or indicators, that will be monitored as part of this program for three main reasons. First, plant community composition is information-rich; a single sampling protocol can provide information on the diversity of native and non-native species, the abundance of individual dominant species, and the abundance of groups of plants. Second, plant community composition is of specific management concern. The abundance and diversity of exotic plants, both absolute and relative to native species, is one of the greatest management concerns in almost all Network parks (Symstad 2004). Finally, plant community composition reflects the effects of a variety of current or anticipated stressors on ecosystem health in the Network parks including invasive exotic plants, large ungulate grazing, lack of fire in a fire-adapted system, chemical exotic plant control, nitrogen deposition, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and climate change. Before the Network begins its Vital Signs monitoring, a detailed plan describing specific protocols used for each of the Vital Signs must go through rigorous development and review. The pilot study on which we report here is one of the components of this protocol development. The goal of the work we report on here was to determine a specific method to use for monitoring plant community composition of the herb layer (< 2 m tall).

Open-File Report↗

USGS1984

Between Mount St. Helens and the world: How the U.S. Geological Survey provided news-media information on the 1980 volcanic eruptions

The eruptions of Mount St. Helens volcano, Wash., constituted one of the major national and international news stories of 1980 and involved the U.S. Geological Survey in more news coverage than any other event in its history. Much of the information about the volcano came from monitoring and research by geologists, geophysicists, hydrologists, and other scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey. This scientific information was distributed to the public, through news media, by U.S. Geological Survey personnel. Key members of this group were Mount St. Helens hazards assessment scientists, monitoring scientists, and research scientists; public affairs officers; and the Information Scientist for Mount St. Helens. The Information Scientist, a geologist or geophysicist, assumed the major role of on-site (Vancouver, Wash.) news spokesman about a week after the main eruption of May 18. The Geological Survey released information through news conferences, interviews, news pools of reporters and cameramen on trips to the volcano, special television and radio appearances, news releases, and informal contacts with reporters. Members of the U.S. Forest Service, Federal Emergency Management Agency, State of Washington, and other government agencies cooperated extensively with the Geological Survey. By providing assistance to news representatives, the Geological Survey and these other agencies helped effect rapid dissemination of the background information and daily events of a highly complex story while limiting disruption to the scientific working team and minimizing dangers to reporters and scientists.

Washington↗

USGS2025

ShakeAlert®—Communication, education, outreach and technical engagement strategic vision

Executive Summary In 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began directly supporting ShakeAlert ® research and in 2012 the ShakeAlert demonstration system began testing ( Given and others, 2018 ). The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system is a partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the three West Coast States (Washington, Oregon, and California) served by the ShakeAlert System, which is part of the larger Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). With more than 143 million people exposed to potentially damaging shaking in the United States ( Jaiswal and others, 2015 ), earthquakes are a national hazard. Most of our Nation’s earthquake risk is concentrated in the highly populated areas on the active plate tectonic boundaries on the West Coast of the conterminous United States. ShakeAlert is the first public alert system in the United States to provide rapid mass notification of earthquake detection, potentially offering seconds of warning before strong shaking arrives. A few seconds may not seem like much time, but the information in ShakeAlert Messages can be used to trigger automated actions that can prevent injury or death, reduce immediate damage, and speed recovery from earthquakes. The information product issued by the ShakeAlert system is called a ShakeAlert Message and is one of the information products and tools of the ANSS. The ShakeAlert System includes the USGS component, plus the pathways by which ShakeAlert-powered products and (or) services are delivered to end users. Alerts can be delivered to cell phones or be used to trigger automated systems to protect equipment, facilities, and infrastructure, such as slowing or stopping a train. ShakeAlert-powered automated actions can include fire house doors that can be opened to prevent jamming, heavy equipment (for example, trains, elevators, and cranes) that can be automatically stopped or parked in safe positions, and pipeline valves that can be closed to prevent surges and spills. A few seconds of warning also may be sufficient for people to take protective actions, such as drop, cover, and hold on or modified protective actions for a broad range of populations. Advance training may increase the benefit of a speedy response to an alert. Outreach and education about EEW may raise awareness of the overall earthquake threat and how people can best react when they receive an alert or feel shaking. ShakeAlert communication, education, outreach, and technical engagement (CEO&TE) efforts are highly collaborative and essential for the success of the ShakeAlert System. This strategic vision informs how the vast ShakeAlert CEO&TE Community operates and works together. The CEO&TE Community delineates a strategic framework that is intended to set the path for a long-term, sustainable approach to CEO&TE through three focus areas and five priorities. Focus Areas Technical engagement.— The objective of this focus area is to expand and broaden ShakeAlert technical engagement and implementation. External engagement.— This focus area targets engagement in long-term communication, education, and outreach planning, implementation, and evaluation. Internal engagement.— The purpose of this focus area is to build and sustain a robust infrastructure to optimize collaboration, information sharing, and project planning among the community of stakeholders charged with implementing ShakeAlert CEO&TE. Priorities The enumeration of the five priorities listed below does not suggest priority ranking. Public safety, preparedness, and resilience; Technical implementation and engagement; Consistent messaging and communication; Integration with other Federal and State earthquake hazards products; and Educational resources development and dissemination. This strategic vision is a tangible outcome of collaboration among many stakeholders beginning in July 2016. Since then, the work of the ShakeAlert CEO&TE Community has grown into an international effort. The USGS has developed, tested, and implemented a broad spectrum of communication, education, and outreach tools and resources—all of which recognize that seconds matter when it comes to safety and mitigating harm from earthquake hazards. The CEO&TE social science research effort has provided invaluable insights into the ShakeAlert System’s human interface. USGS-licensed technical partners develop, test, and implement real-world applications using ShakeAlert Messages. The success of ShakeAlert CEO&TE efforts is predicated on robust collaboration across numerous agencies, organizations, and groups. As such, this strategic vision outlines a “partnership model” that delineates roles and responsibilities to ensure alignment with focus areas and priorities. The partnership model includes the CEO&TE lead agency (USGS); its principal partners (State agencies and university partners); its implementation partners (for example, technical partners who build systems to deliver ShakeAlert-powered products and (or) services [focus area one]), earthquake education partners who work to increase public preparedness for seismic events (focus area two); and other organizations that work together to enhance the adoption and effectiveness of the ShakeAlert System. These partners collaborate and convene through a variety of working groups and forums, which are also described in this strategic vision and align with focus area three (internal engagement). The CEO&TE Community collaboratively developed its operating principles and a consensus-based, decision-making strategic framework to guide its collective work. Performance metrics are used to continually measure success. Ultimately, the USGS and ShakeAlert CEO&TE Community are advancing the ShakeAlert System that as of the publication of this strategic vision to “provide earthquake early warning for all” serves more than 50 million people.

Circular↗

USGS1998

Application of nonlinear-regression methods to a ground-water flow model of the Albuquerque Basin, New Mexico

This report documents the application of nonlinear-regression methods to a numerical model of ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin, New Mexico. In the Albuquerque Basin, ground water is the primary source for most water uses. Ground-water withdrawal has steadily increased since the 1940's, resulting in large declines in water levels in the Albuquerque area. A ground-water flow model was developed in 1994 and revised and updated in 1995 for the purpose of managing basin ground- water resources. In the work presented here, nonlinear-regression methods were applied to a modified version of the previous flow model. Goals of this work were to use regression methods to calibrate the model with each of six different configurations of the basin subsurface and to assess and compare optimal parameter estimates, model fit, and model error among the resulting calibrations. The Albuquerque Basin is one in a series of north trending structural basins within the Rio Grande Rift, a region of Cenozoic crustal extension. Mountains, uplifts, and fault zones bound the basin, and rock units within the basin include pre-Santa Fe Group deposits, Tertiary Santa Fe Group basin fill, and post-Santa Fe Group volcanics and sediments. The Santa Fe Group is greater than 14,000 feet (ft) thick in the central part of the basin. During deposition of the Santa Fe Group, crustal extension resulted in development of north trending normal faults with vertical displacements of as much as 30,000 ft. Ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin occurs primarily in the Santa Fe Group and post-Santa Fe Group deposits. Water flows between the ground-water system and surface-water bodies in the inner valley of the basin, where the Rio Grande, a network of interconnected canals and drains, and Cochiti Reservoir are located. Recharge to the ground-water flow system occurs as infiltration of precipitation along mountain fronts and infiltration of stream water along tributaries to the Rio Grande; subsurface flow from adjacent regions; irrigation and septic field seepage; and leakage through the Rio Grande, canal, and Cochiti Reservoir beds. Ground water is discharged from the basin by withdrawal; evapotranspiration; subsurface flow; and flow to the Rio Grande, canals, and drains. The transient, three-dimensional numerical model of ground-water flow to which nonlinear-regression methods were applied simulates flow in the Albuquerque Basin from 1900 to March 1995. Six different basin subsurface configurations are considered in the model. These configurations are designed to test the effects of (1) varying the simulated basin thickness, (2) including a hypothesized hydrogeologic unit with large hydraulic conductivity in the western part of the basin (the west basin high-K zone), and (3) substantially lowering the simulated hydraulic conductivity of a fault in the western part of the basin (the low-K fault zone). The model with each of the subsurface configurations was calibrated using a nonlinear least- squares regression technique. The calibration data set includes 802 hydraulic-head measurements that provide broad spatial and temporal coverage of basin conditions, and one measurement of net flow from the Rio Grande and drains to the ground-water system in the Albuquerque area. Data are weighted on the basis of estimates of the standard deviations of measurement errors. The 10 to 12 parameters to which the calibration data as a whole are generally most sensitive were estimated by nonlinear regression, whereas the remaining model parameter values were specified. Results of model calibration indicate that the optimal parameter estimates as a whole are most reasonable in calibrations of the model with with configurations 3 (which contains 1,600-ft-thick basin deposits and the west basin high-K zone), 4 (which contains 5,000-ft-thick basin de

New Mexico↗

USGS2003

An empirical model for earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region, California, 2002-2031

The moment magnitude M 7.8 earthquake in 1906 profoundly changed the rate of seismic activity over much of northern California. The low rate of seismic activity in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) since 1906, relative to that of the preceding 55 yr, is often explained as a stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, existing elastic and visco-elastic models of stress change fail to fully account for the duration of the lowered rate of earthquake activity. We use variations in the rate of earthquakes as a basis for a simple empirical model for estimating the probability of M ≥6.7 earthquakes in the SFBR. The model preserves the relative magnitude distribution of sources predicted by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities' ( WGCEP, 1999 ; WGCEP, 2002 ) model of characterized ruptures on SFBR faults and is consistent with the occurrence of the four M ≥6.7 earthquakes in the region since 1838. When the empirical model is extrapolated 30 yr forward from 2002, it gives a probability of 0.42 for one or more M ≥6.7 in the SFBR. This result is lower than the probability of 0.5 estimated by WGCEP ( 1988 ), lower than the 30-yr Poisson probability of 0.60 obtained by WGCEP ( 1999 ) and WGCEP ( 2002 ), and lower than the 30-yr time-dependent probabilities of 0.67, 0.70, and 0.63 obtained by WGCEP ( 1990 ), WGCEP ( 1999 ), and WGCEP ( 2002 ), respectively, for the occurrence of one or more large earthquakes. This lower probability is consistent with the lack of adequate accounting for the 1906 stress-shadow in these earlier reports. The empirical model represents one possible approach toward accounting for the stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, the discrepancy between our result and those obtained with other modeling methods underscores the fact that the physics controlling the timing of earthquakes is not well understood. Hence, we advise against using the empirical model alone (or any other single probability model) for estimating the earthquake hazard and endorse the use of all credible earthquake probability models for the region, including the empirical model, with appropriate weighting, as was done in WGCEP ( 2002 ).

California↗

USGS2026

Southeastern Utah Federal lands science needs survey

Evidence-based scientific information can help support defensible decision making in the management of public lands. This report sought to identify current (2024–25) Federal agency research needs in southeastern Utah and to synthesize common management challenges and questions across jurisdictional boundaries. We implemented a science needs assessment focused on lands managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (FS), and National Park Service (NPS) in southeastern Utah—the area delineated by BLM’s Canyon Country District Office, portions of the FS Manti-La Sal National Forest, and Southeast Utah Group NPS units. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) researchers met with and surveyed BLM, NPS, and FS staff in 2024 and 2025 to understand their science needs and preferred modes of information delivery. The USGS’s approach may be unrepresentative in terms of which topic areas were addressed, but the responses nevertheless highlight challenges and high-priority research areas that could contribute positively to agency decision making. Common management challenges and areas where additional research could be beneficial to land managers include the effects of climate change, recreation effects and visitor behavior, hydrology and hydrologic changes due to anthropogenic pressures, and the capacity for inventory and monitoring across essentially all resource types. Research on site-specific restoration techniques and their outcomes was also a common theme. In this report we discuss ways in which researchers can increase the extent to which their work could be actionable for resource managers and provide suggestions for potential priority research areas for the study region.

Utah↗

USGS1993

Applications of research from the U.S. Geological Survey program, assessment of regional earthquake hazards and risk along the Wasatch Front, Utah

INTERACTIVE WORKSHOPS: ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS OF THE EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS RESEARCH AND REDUCTION PROGRAM IN THE WASATCH FRONT, UTAH: Interactive workshops provided the forum and stimulus necessary to foster collaboration among the participants in the multidisciplinary, 5-yr program of earthquake hazards reduction in the Wasatch Front, Utah. The workshop process validated well-documented social science theories on the importance of interpersonal interaction, including interaction between researchers and users of research to increase the probability that research will be relevant to the user's needs and, therefore, more readily used. REDUCING EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS IN UTAH: THE CRUCIAL CONNECTION BETWEEN RESEARCHERS AND PRACTITIONERS: Complex scientific and engineering studies must be translated for and transferred to nontechnical personnel for use in reducing earthquake hazards in Utah. The three elements needed for effective translation, likelihood of occurrence, location, and severity of potential hazards, and the three elements needed for effective transfer, delivery, assistance, and encouragement, are described and illustrated for Utah. The importance of evaluating and revising earthquake hazard reduction programs and their components is emphasized. More than 30 evaluations of various natural hazard reduction programs and techniques are introduced. This report was prepared for research managers, funding sources, and evaluators of the Utah earthquake hazard reduction program who are concerned about effectiveness. An overview of the Utah program is provided for those researchers, engineers, planners, and decisionmakers, both public and private, who are committed to reducing human casualties, property damage, and interruptions of socioeconomic systems. PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF EARTHQUAKE MITIGATION POLICIES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT IN UTAH: The earthquake hazard potential along the Wasatch Front in Utah has been well defined by a number of scientific and engineering studies. Translated earthquake hazard maps have also been developed to identify areas that are particularly vulnerable to various causes of damage such as ground shaking, surface rupturing, and liquefaction. The implementation of earthquake hazard reduction plans are now under way in various communities in Utah. The results of a survey presented in this paper indicate that technical public officials (planners and building officials) have an understanding of the earthquake hazards and how to mitigate the risks. Although the survey shows that the general public has a slightly lower concern about the potential for economic losses, they recognize the potential problems and can support a number of earthquake mitigation measures. The study suggests that many community groups along the Wasatch Front, including volunteer groups, business groups, and elected and appointed officials, are ready for action-oriented educational programs. These programs could lead to a significant reduction in the risks associated with earthquake hazards. A DATA BASE DESIGNED FOR URBAN SEISMIC HAZARDS STUDIES: A computerized data base has been designed for use in urban seismic hazards studies conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey. The design includes file structures for 16 linked data sets, which contain geological, geophysical, and seismological data used in preparing relative ground response maps of large urban areas. The data base is organized along relational data base principles. A prototype urban hazards data base has been created for evaluation in two urban areas currently under investigation: the Wasatch Front region of Utah and the Puget Sound area of Washington. The initial implementation of the urban hazards data base was accomplished on a microcomputer using dBASE III Plus software and transferred to minicomputers and a work station. A MAPPING OF GROUND-SHAKING INTENSITIES FOR SALT LAKE COUNTY, UTAH: This paper documents the development of maps showing a

Professional Paper↗

USGS2022

Considerations for creating equitable and inclusive communication campaigns associated with ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the USA

Purpose The 2019 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) cites earthquakes as the most damaging natural hazard globally, causing billions of dollars of damage and killing thousands of people. Earthquakes have the potential to drastically impact physical, social and economic landscapes; to reduce this risk, earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been developed. However, these technical EEW systems do not operate in a vacuum; the inequities in social systems, along with the needs of diverse populations, must be considered when developing these systems and their associated communication campaigns. Design/methodology/approach This article reviews aspects of social vulnerability as they relate to ShakeAlert, the EEW system for the USA. The authors identified two theories (relationship management theory and mute group theory) to inform self-reflective questions for agencies managing campaigns for EEW systems, which can assist in the development of more inclusive communication practices. Finally, the authors suggest this work contributes to important conversations about diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) issues within early warning systems and earthquake preparedness campaigns in general. Findings To increase inclusivity, Macnamara (2012) argues that self-reflective questioning while analyzing perspective, philosophy and approaches for a campaign can help. Specific to EEW campaigns, developers may find self-reflective questions a useful approach to increase inclusion. These questions are guided by two theories and are explored in the paper. Research limitations/implications Several research limitations exist. First, this work explores two theories to develop a combined theoretical model for self-reflective questions. Further research is required to determine if this approach and the combination of these two theories have adequately informed the development of the reflective questions. Orginality/value The authors could find little peer-reviewed work examining DEI for EEW systems, and ShakeAlert in particular. While articles on early warning systems exist that explore aspects of this, EEW and ShakeAlert, with its very limited time frames for warnings, creates unique challenges.

West Coast↗