Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043

Brad T. Aagaard; J. Luke Blair; John Boatwright; Susan H. Garcia; Ruth A. Harris; Andrew J. Michael; David P. Schwartz; Jeanne S. DiLeo

doi:10.3133/fs20163020

USGS · fs20163020

Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043

Brad T. Aagaard·J. Luke Blair·John Boatwright·Susan H. Garcia·Ruth A. Harris·Andrew J. Michael·David P. Schwartz·Jeanne S. DiLeo

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Abstract

Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in the San Francisco Bay region before 2043. Earthquakes this large are capable of causing widespread damage; therefore, communities in the region should take simple steps to help reduce injuries, damage, and disruption, as well as accelerate recovery from these earthquakes.

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Source-reported bounding extent: 36.491973470593685° to 38.852542390364235° latitude; -123.46984863281249° to -121.59667968749999° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

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BibTeX RIS

Brad T. Aagaard, J. Luke Blair, John Boatwright, Susan H. Garcia, Ruth A. Harris, Andrew J. Michael, David P. Schwartz, Jeanne S. DiLeo. 2016-06-13. Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043. https://doi.org/10.3133/fs20163020

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