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J. Luke Blair

Publications and source records attributed to J. Luke Blair.

13 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2023

Modern products for a vintage event: An update on the 1933 Long Beach, California, earthquake

When a notable earthquake occurs in the United States, a range of familiar real‐ and near‐real‐time products are produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), and made available via the ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog. For historical and early instrumental earthquakes, similar results and products are developed depending on data availability and event significance, drawing from published later studies. The year 2023 marked the ninetieth anniversary of the 11 March 1933 Long Beach, California, earthquake. This anniversary provided the impetus to update ANSS products, drawing on archived and published data. Here, we describe the updated ShakeMap, shaking recordings and intensities, and retrospective aftershock forecast for the Long Beach, California, earthquake. In effect we have developed standard, modern ANSS products for an earthquake that occurred 90 yr ago. Our results show that the distributions of both the ground motions, anchored by three strong‐motion recordings, and aftershock magnitudes are consistent with expectations for an M 6.4 mainshock in Southern California. We show that, notwithstanding possible limitations, instrumentally recorded accelerations from the closest station are consistent with predicted shaking and directly estimated macroseismic intensities. Updated data products have been added to the USGS event page, where they are available for download. Public‐facing products were also created for the anniversary and are freely available on the USGS website.

California↗
USGS2022

Preliminary geologic map of early Miocene felsic eruptive centers in the Aquarius Mountains, west-central Arizona

The first author, Gary S. Fuis, conducted this mapping in the summer of 1967 in partial fulfillment of the entry requirements into the Ph.D program of the Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences of the California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, Calif. The area mapped lies wholly within the Fort Rock Ranch, a private ranch spanning ~50 square miles in Mohave and Yavapai Counties, Arizona. Access to the ranch is limited, and it is uncertain whether a detailed geologic map of the Aquarius Mountains can be recreated today. Therefore, we are making this map available to the public in this Open-File Report. The original mapping was compiled on an enlarged single aerial photograph at an approximate scale of 1:15,600. The second author, J. Luke Blair, photogrammetrically rectified the original map and added modern topography, which was not available at the time the original map was completed. Modern roads and drainages were also added, including I–40, built after the original map was completed. Both authors reformatted the original map using current USGS geologic map standards.

Arizona↗
USGS2016

Helium as a tracer for fluids released from Juan de Fuca lithosphere beneath the Cascadia forearc

The ratio between helium isotopes (3He/4He) provides an excellent geochemical tracer for investigating the sources of fluids sampled at the Earth's surface. 3He/4He values observed in 25 mineral springs and wells above the Cascadia forearc document a significant component of mantle-derived helium above Juan de Fuca lithosphere, as well as variability in 3He enrichment across the forearc. Sample sites arcward of the forearc mantle corner (FMC) generally yield significantly higher ratios (1.2-4.0 RA) than those seaward of the corner (0.03-0.7 RA). The highest ratios in the Cascadia forearc coincide with slab depths (40-45 km) where metamorphic dehydration of young oceanic lithosphere is expected to release significant fluid and where tectonic tremor occurs, whereas little fluid is expected to be released from the slab depths (25-30 km) beneath sites seaward of the corner.Tremor (considered a marker for high fluid pressure) and high RA values in the forearc are spatially correlated. The Cascadia tremor band is centered on its FMC, and we tentatively postulate that hydrated forearc mantle beneath Cascadia deflects a significant portion of slab-derived fluids updip along the subduction interface, to vent in the vicinity of its corner. Furthermore, high RA values within the tremor band just arcward of the FMC, suggest that the innermost mantle wedge is relatively permeable.Conceptual models require: (1) a deep fluid source as a medium to transport primordial 3He; (2) conduits through the lithosphere which serve to speed fluid ascent to the surface before significant dilution from radiogenic 4He can occur; and (3) near lithostatic fluid pressure to keep conduits open. Our spatial correlation between high RA values and tectonic tremor provides independent evidence that tremor is associated with deep fluids, and it further suggests that high pore pressures associated with tremor may serve to keep fractures open for 3He migration through ductile upper mantle and lower crust.

Geochemistry International↗
USGS2016

Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043

Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in the San Francisco Bay region before 2043. Earthquakes this large are capable of causing widespread damage; therefore, communities in the region should take simple steps to help reduce injuries, damage, and disruption, as well as accelerate recovery from these earthquakes.

California↗
USGS2015

The Mw6.0 24 August 2014 South Napa earthquake

The M w 6.0 South Napa earthquake, which occurred at 10:20 UTC 24 August 2014 was the largest earthquake to strike the greater San Francisco Bay area since the M w 6.9 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. The rupture from this right‐lateral earthquake propagated mostly unilaterally to the north and up‐dip, directing the strongest shaking toward the city of Napa, where peak ground accelerations (PGAs) between 45% g and 61% g were recorded and modified Mercalli intensities (MMIs) of VII–VIII were reported. Tectonic surface rupture with dextral slip of up to 46 cm was observed on a 12.5 km long segment, some of which was along a previously mapped strand of the West Napa fault system, although the rupture extended to the north of the mapped Quaternary strand. Modeling of seismic and geodetic data suggests an average coseismic slip of 50 cm, with a maximum slip of about 1 m at depths of 10–11 km. We observed up to 35 cm of afterslip along the surface trace in the week following the mainshock, primarily along the southern half of the surface rupture that experienced relatively little coseismic offset. Relocation of the sparse aftershock sequence suggests en echelon southwest‐ and northeast‐dipping fault planes, reflective of the complex fault geometry in this region. The Napa basin and historic and late Holocene alluvial flood deposits in downtown Napa amplified the ground motions there. Few ground failures were mapped, reflecting the dry season (as well as a persistent drought that had lowered the groundwater table) and the short duration of strong shaking in the epicentral area.

California↗
USGS2014

Relationship between the Cascadia fore-arc mantle wedge, nonvolcanic tremor, and the downdip limit of seismogenic rupture

Great earthquakes anticipated on the Cascadia subduction fault can potentially rupture beyond the geodetically and thermally inferred locked zone to the depths of episodic tremor and slip (ETS) or to the even deeper fore-arc mantle corner (FMC). To evaluate these extreme rupture limits, we map the FMC from southern Vancouver Island to central Oregon by combining published seismic velocity structures with a model of the Juan de Fuca plate. These data indicate that the FMC is somewhat shallower beneath Vancouver Island (36–38 km) and Oregon (35–40 km) and deeper beneath Washington (41–43 km). The updip edge of tremor follows the same general pattern, overlying a slightly shallower Juan de Fuca plate beneath Vancouver Island and Oregon (∼30 km) and a deeper plate beneath Washington (∼35 km). Similar to the Nankai subduction zone, the best constrained FMC depths correlate with the center of the tremor band suggesting that ETS is controlled by conditions near the FMC rather than directly by temperature or pressure. Unlike Nankai, a gap as wide as 70 km exists between the downdip limit of the inferred locked zone and the FMC. This gap also encompasses a ∼50 km wide gap between the inferred locked zones and the updip limit of tremor. The separation of these features offers a natural laboratory for determining the key controls on downdip rupture limits.

Cascadia fore-arc mantle wedge↗
USGS2014

The 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake and tsunamis: A modern perspective and enduring legacies

The magnitude 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake that struck south-central Alaska at 5:36 p.m. on Friday, March 27, 1964, is the largest recorded earthquake in U.S. history and the second-largest earthquake recorded with modern instruments. The earthquake was felt throughout most of mainland Alaska, as far west as Dutch Harbor in the Aleutian Islands some 480 miles away, and at Seattle, Washington, more than 1,200 miles to the southeast of the fault rupture, where the Space Needle swayed perceptibly. The earthquake caused rivers, lakes, and other waterways to slosh as far away as the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. Water-level recorders in 47 states—the entire Nation except for Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island— registered the earthquake. It was so large that it caused the entire Earth to ring like a bell: vibrations that were among the first of their kind ever recorded by modern instruments. The Great Alaska Earthquake spawned thousands of lesser aftershocks and hundreds of damaging landslides, submarine slumps, and other ground failures. Alaska’s largest city, Anchorage, located west of the fault rupture, sustained heavy property damage. Tsunamis produced by the earthquake resulted in deaths and damage as far away as Oregon and California. Altogether the earthquake and subsequent tsunamis caused 129 fatalities and an estimated $2.3 billion in property losses (in 2013 dollars). Most of the population of Alaska and its major transportation routes, ports, and infrastructure lie near the eastern segment of the Aleutian Trench that ruptured in the 1964 earthquake. Although the Great Alaska Earthquake was tragic because of the loss of life and property, it provided a wealth of data about subductionzone earthquakes and the hazards they pose. The leap in scientific understanding that followed the 1964 earthquake has led to major breakthroughs in earth science research worldwide over the past half century. This fact sheet commemorates Great Alaska Earthquake and examines the advances in knowledge and technology that have helped to improve earthquake preparation and response both in Alaska and around the world.

Alaska↗
USGS2014

Key recovery factors for the August 24, 2014, South Napa Earthquake

Through discussions between the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) following the South Napa earthquake, it was determined that several key decision points would be faced by FEMA for which additional information should be sought and provided by USGS and its partners. This report addresses the four tasks that were agreed to. These tasks are (1) assessment of ongoing fault movement (called afterslip) especially in the Browns Valley residential neighborhood, (2) assessment of the shaking pattern in the downtown area of the City of Napa, (3) improvement of information on the fault hazards posed by the West Napa Fault System (record of past earthquakes and slip rate, for example), and (4) imagery acquisition and data processing to provide overall geospatial information support to FEMA.

California↗
USGS2012

Juan de Fuca slab geometry and its relation to Wadati-Benioff zone seismicity

A new model of the subducted Juan de Fuca plate beneath western North America allows first-order correlations between the occurrence of Wadati-Benioff zone earthquakes and slab geometry, temperature, and hydration state. The geo-referenced 3D model, constructed from weighted control points, integrates depth information from earthquake locations and regional seismic velocity studies. We use the model to separate earthquakes that occur in the Cascadia forearc from those that occur within the underlying Juan de Fuca plate and thereby reveal previously obscured details regarding the spatial distribution of earthquakes. Seismicity within the slab is most prevalent where the slab is warped beneath northwestern California and western Washington suggesting that slab flexure, in addition to expected metamorphic dehydration processes, promotes earthquake occurrence within the subducted oceanic plate. Earthquake patterns beneath western Vancouver Island are consistent with slab dehydration processes. Conversely, the lack of slab earthquakes beneath western Oregon is consistent with an anhydrous slab. Double-differenced relocated seismicity resolves a double seismic zone within the slab beneath northwestern California that strongly constrains the location of the plate interface and delineates a cluster of seismicity 10 km above the surface that includes the 1992 M7.1 Mendocino earthquake. We infer that this earthquake ruptured a surface within the Cascadia accretionary margin above the Juan de Fuca plate. We further speculate that this earthquake is associated with a detached fragment of former Farallon plate. Other subsurface tectonic elements within the forearc may have the potential to generate similar damaging earthquakes.

British Columbia;California;Oregon;Washington↗
USGS2008

Complex faulting associated with the 22 December 2003 M w 6.5 San Simeon California, earthquake, aftershocks and postseismic surface deformation

We use data from two seismic networks and satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) imagery to characterize the 22 December 2003 M w 6.5 San Simeon earthquake sequence. Absolute locations for the mainshock and nearly 10,000 aftershocks were determined using a new three-dimensional (3D) seismic velocity model; relative locations were obtained using double difference. The mainshock location found using the 3D velocity model is 35.704° N, 121.096° W at a depth of 9.7±0.7 km. The aftershocks concentrate at the northwest and southeast parts of the aftershock zone, between the mapped traces of the Oceanic and Nacimiento fault zones. The northwest end of the mainshock rupture, as defined by the aftershocks, projects from the mainshock hypocenter to the surface a few kilometers west of the mapped trace of the Oceanic fault, near the Santa Lucia Range front and the >5 mm postseismic InSAR imagery contour. The Oceanic fault in this area, as mapped by Hall (1991) , is therefore probably a second-order synthetic thrust or reverse fault that splays upward from the main seismogenic fault at depth. The southeast end of the rupture projects closer to the mapped Oceanic fault trace, suggesting much of the slip was along this fault, or at a minimum is accommodating much of the postseismic deformation. InSAR imagery shows ∼72 mm of postseismic uplift in the vicinity of maximum coseismic slip in the central section of the rupture, and ∼48 and ∼45 mm at the northwest and southeast end of the aftershock zone, respectively. From these observations, we model a ∼30-km-long northwest-trending northeast-dipping mainshock rupture surface—called the mainthrust—which is likely the Oceanic fault at depth, a ∼10-km-long southwest-dipping backthrust parallel to the mainthrust near the hypocenter, several smaller southwest-dipping structures in the southeast, and perhaps additional northeast-dipping or subvertical structures southeast of the mainshock plane. Discontinuous backthrust features opposite the mainthrust in the southeast part of the aftershock zone may offset the relic Nacimiento fault zone at depth. The InSAR data image surface deformation associated with both aseismic slip and aftershock production on the mainthrust and the backthrusts at the northwest and southeast ends of the aftershock zone. The well-defined mainthrust at the latitude of the epicenter and antithetic backthrust illuminated by the aftershock zone indicate uplift of the Santa Lucia Range as a popup block; aftershocks in the southeast part of the zone also indicate a popup block, but it is less well defined. The absence of backthrust features in the central part of the zone suggests range-front uplift by fault-propagation folding, or backthrusts in the central part were not activated during the mainshock.

California↗
USGS2004

Depth to the Juan de Fuca slab beneath the Cascadia subduction margin– A 3-D model for sorting earthquakes

We present an updated model of the Juan de Fuca slab beneath southern British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and northern California, and use this model to separate earthquakes occurring above and below the slab surface. The model is based on depth contours previously published by Fluck and others (1997). Our model attempts to rectify a number of shortcomings in the original model and update it with new work. The most significant improvements include (1) a gridded slab surface in geo-referenced (ArcGIS) format, (2) continuation of the slab surface to its full northern and southern edges, (3) extension of the slab surface from 50-km depth down to 110-km beneath the Cascade arc volcanoes, and (4) revision of the slab shape based on new seismic-reflection and seismic-refraction studies. We have used this surface to sort earthquakes and present some general observations and interpretations of seismicity patterns revealed by our analysis. For example, deep earthquakes within the Juan de Fuca Plate beneath western Washington define a linear trend that may mark a tear within the subducting plate Also earthquakes associated with the northern stands of the San Andreas Fault abruptly terminate at the inferred southern boundary of the Juan de Fuca slab. In addition, we provide files of earthquakes above and below the slab surface and a 3-D animation or fly-through showing a shaded-relief map with plate boundaries, the slab surface, and hypocenters for use as a visualization tool.

British Columbia, Washington↗
USGS2002

Debris-flow and flooding deposits in coastal Venezuela associated with the storm of December 14-16, 1999

Heavy rainfall from the storm of December 14?16, 1999, triggered thousands of shallow landslides on steep slopes of the Sierra de Avila north of Caracas, Venezuela, and caused flooding and massive debris flows in the channels of major drainages that severely damaged coastal communities along the Caribbean Sea. Within this region we characterized geologic conditions where landslides initiated on hillsides and examined the texture of debris-flow deposits in the channels of nine drainages. In one of the most severely damaged areas on a highly developed alluvial fan at Caraballeda, we measured debris-flow deposits that ranged up to 5 meters (m) in thickness, inundating structures and roads over a large portion of the fan. Boulders up to 5 m long were carried along by the flows, impacted structures causing serious damage, and were deposited on the fan. Using field measurements and comparing pre-event and post-event topography from aerial photographs, we determined the volume of debris-flow and flood deposition on the fan to be about 2 million cubic meters. The total volume of material transported and deposited by landslides throughout the Vargas region ranks this as one of the most severe historical erosional events worldwide.

IMAP↗