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Developing integrated methods to address complex resource and environmental issues

Introduction This circular provides an overview of selected activities that were conducted within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Integrated Methods Development Project, an interdisciplinary project designed to develop new tools and conduct innovative research requiring integration of geologic, geophysical, geochemical, and remote-sensing expertise. The project was supported by the USGS Mineral Resources Program, and its products and acquired capabilities have broad applications to missions throughout the USGS and beyond. In addressing challenges associated with understanding the location, quantity, and quality of mineral resources, and in investigating the potential environmental consequences of resource development, a number of field and laboratory capabilities and interpretative methodologies evolved from the project that have applications to traditional resource studies as well as to studies related to ecosystem health, human health, disaster and hazard assessment, and planetary science. New or improved tools and research findings developed within the project have been applied to other projects and activities. Specifically, geophysical equipment and techniques have been applied to a variety of traditional and nontraditional mineral- and energy-resource studies, military applications, environmental investigations, and applied research activities that involve climate change, mapping techniques, and monitoring capabilities. Diverse applied geochemistry activities provide a process-level understanding of the mobility, chemical speciation, and bioavailability of elements, particularly metals and metalloids, in a variety of environmental settings. Imaging spectroscopy capabilities maintained and developed within the project have been applied to traditional resource studies as well as to studies related to ecosystem health, human health, disaster assessment, and planetary science. Brief descriptions of capabilities and laboratory facilities and summaries of some applications of project products and research findings are included in this circular. The work helped support the USGS mission to “provide reliable scientific information to describe and understand the Earth; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources; and enhance and protect our quality of life.” Activities within the project include the following: Spanned scales from microscopic to planetary; Demonstrated broad applications across disciplines; Included life-cycle studies of mineral resources; Incorporated specialized areas of expertise in applied geochemistry including mineralogy, hydrogeology, analytical chemistry, aqueous geochemistry, biogeochemistry, microbiology, aquatic toxicology, and public health; and Incorporated specialized areas of expertise in geophysics including magnetics, gravity, radiometrics, electromagnetics, seismic, ground-penetrating radar, borehole radar, and imaging spectroscopy. This circular consists of eight sections that contain summaries of various activities under the project. The eight sections are listed below: Laboratory Facilities and Capabilities, which includes brief descriptions of the various types of laboratories and capabilities used for the project; Method and Software Development, which includes summaries of remote-sensing, geophysical, and mineralogical methods developed or enhanced by the project; Instrument Development, which includes descriptions of geophysical instruments developed under the project; Minerals, Energy, and Climate, which includes summaries of research that applies to mineral or energy resources, environmental processes and monitoring, and carbon sequestration by earth materials; Element Cycling, Toxicity, and Health, which includes summaries of several process-oriented geochemical and biogeochemical studies and health-related research activities; Hydrogeology and Water Quality, which includes descriptions of innovative geophysical, remote-sensing, and geochemical research pertaining to hydrogeology and water-quality applications; Hazards and Disaster Assessment, which includes summaries of research and method development that were applied to natural hazards, human-caused hazards, and disaster assessments; and Databases and Framework Studies, which includes descriptions of fundamental applications of geophysical studies and of the importance of archived data.

Circular

Land use and land cover change in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: 1975-1995

Shifts in the demographic and economic character of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) are driving patterns of land cover and land use change in the region. Such changes may have important consequences for ecosystem functioning. The objective of this paper is to quantify the trajectories and rates of change in land cover and use across the GYE for the period 1975-1995 using satellite imagery. Spectral and geographic variables were used as inputs to classification tree regression analysis (CART) to find "rules" which defined land use and land cover classes on the landscape. The resulting CART functions were used to map land cover and land use across seven Landsat TM scenes for 1995. We then used a thresholding technique to identify locations that differed in spectral properties between the 1995 and 1985 time periods. These "changed" locations were classified using CART functions derived from spectral and geographic data from 1985. This was similarly done for the year 1975 based on Landsat MSS data. Differences between the 1975, 1985, and 1995 maps were considered change in land cover and use. We calibrated and tested the accuracy of our models using data acquired through manual interpretation of aerial photos. Elevation and vegetative indices derived from the remotely sensed satellite imagery explained the most variance in the land use and land cover classes (-i.e., defined the "rules" most often). Overall accuracies from our study were good, ranging from 94% at the coarsest level of detail to 74% at the finest. The largest changes over the study period were the increases in burned, urban, and mixed conifer-herbaceous classes and decreases in woody deciduous, mixed woody deciduous-herbaceous, and conifer habitats. These changes have important implications for ecological function and biodiversity. The expansion of mixed conifer classes may increase fuel loads and enhance risk to the growing number of rural homes. The reduction of woody deciduous cover types is likely reducing population sizes for the numerous plant and animal species that specialize on this habitat type. Some of these species are also negatively influenced by the increase of rural homes in and near woody deciduous habitats.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming

Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency: Bulletin #17B of the Hydrology Subcommittee

In December 1967, Bulletin No. 15, "A Uniform Technique for Determining Flood Flow Frequencies," was issued by the Hydrology Committee of the Water Resources Council. The report recommended use of the Pearson Type III distribution with log transformation of the data (log-Pearson Type III distribution) as a base method for flood flow frequency studies. As pointed out in that report, further studies were needed covering various aspects of flow frequency determinations. In March 1976, Bulletin 17, "Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency" was issued by the Water Resources Council. The guide was an extension and update of Bulletin No. 15. It provided a more complete guide for flood flow frequency analysis incorporating currently accepted technical methods with sufficient detail to promote uniform application. It was limited to defining flood potentials in terms of peak discharge and exceedance probability at locations where a systematic record of peak flood flows is available. The recommended set of procedures was selected from those used or described in the literature prior to 1976, based on studies conducted for this purpose at the Center for Research in Water Resources of the University of Texas at Austin (summarized in Appendix 14) and on studies by the Work Group on Flood Flow Frequency. The "Guidelines" were revised and reissued in June 1977 as Bulletin 17A. Bulletin 17B is the latest effort to improve and expand upon the earlier publications. Bulletin 17B provides revised procedures for weighting a station skew value with the results from a generalized skew study, detecting and treating outliers, making two station comparisons, and computing confidence limits about a frequency curve. The Work Group that prepared this revision did not address the suitability of the original distribution or the generalized skew map. Major problems are encountered when developing guides for flood flow frequency determinations. There is no procedure or set of procedures that can be adopted which, when rigidly applied to the available data, will accurately define the flood potential of any given watershed. Statistical analysis alone will not resolve all flood frequency problems. As discussed in subsequent sections of this guide, elements of risk and uncertainty are inherent in any flood frequency analysis. User decisions must be based on properly applied procedures and proper interpretation of results considering risk and uncertainty. Therefore, the judgment of a professional experienced in hydrologic analysis will enhance the usefulness of a flood frequency analysis and promote appropriate application. It is possible to standarize many elements of flood frequency analysis. This guide describes each major element of the process of defining the flood potential at a specific location in terms of peak discharge and exceedance probability. Use is confined to stations where available records are adequate to warrant statistical analysis of the data. Special situations may require other approaches. In those cases where the procedures of this guide are not followed, deviations must be supported by appropriate study and accompanied by a comparison of results using the recommended procedures. As a further means of achieving consistency and improving results, the Work Group recommends that studies be coordinated when more than one analyst is working currently on data for the same location. This recommendation holds particularly when defining exceedance probabilities for rare events, where this guide allows more latitude. Flood records are limited. As more years of record become available at each location, the determination of flood potential may change. Thus, an estimate may be outdated a few years after it is made. Additional flood data alone may be sufficient reason for a fresh assessment of the flood potential. When making a new assessment, the analyst should incorporate in his study a review of earlier estimates. Where differences appear, they should be acknowledged and explained.

Bulletin

A special planning technique for stream-aquifer systems

The potential effects of water-management plans on stream-aquifer systems in several countries have been simulated using electric-analog or digital-computer models. Many of the electric-analog models require large amounts of hardware preparation for each problem to be solved and some become so bulky that they present serious space and access problems. Digital-computer models require no special hardware preparation but often they require so many repetitive solutions of equations that they result in calculations that are unduly unwieldy and expensive, even on the latest generation of computers. Further, the more detailed digital models require a vast amount of core storage, leaving insufficient storage for evaluation of the many possible schemes of water-management. A concept introduced in 1968 by the senior author of this report offers a solution to these problems. The concept is that the effects on streamflow of ground-water withdrawal or recharge (stress) at any point in such a system can be approximated using two classical equations and a value of time that reflects the integrated effect of the following: irregular impermeable boundaries; stream meanders; aquifer properties and their areal variations; distance of the point from the stream; and imperfect hydraulic connection between the stream and the aquifer. The value of time is called the stream depletion factor ( sdf ). Results of a relatively few tests on detailed models can be summarized on maps showing lines through points of equal sdf . Sensitivity analyses of models of two large stream-aquifer systems in the State of Colorado show that the sdf technique described in this report provides results within tolerable ranges of error. The sdf technique is extremely versatile, allowing water managers to choose the degree of detail that best suits their needs and available computational hardware. Simple arithmetic, using, for example, only a slide rule and charts or tables of dimensionless values, will be sufficient for many calculations. If a large digital computer is available, detailed description of the system and its stresses will require only a fraction of the core storage, leaving the greater part of the storage available for sophisticated analyses, such as optimization. Once these analyses have been made, the model then is ready to perform its principal task--prediction of streamflow and changes in ground-water storage. In the two systems described in this report, direct diversion from the streams is the principal source of irrigation water, but it is supplemented by numerous wells. The streamflow depends largely on snowmelt. Estimates of both the amount and timing of runoff from snowmelt during the irrigation season are available on a monthly basis during the spring and early summer. These estimates become increasingly accurate as the season progresses, hence frequent changes of stress on the predictive model are necessary. The sdf technique is especially well suited to this purpose, because it is very easy to make such changes, resulting in more up-todate estimates of the availability of streamflow and ground-water storage. These estimates can be made for any time and any location in the system.

Open-File Report

Sub-tidal benthic habitats of central San Francisco Bay and offshore Golden Gate area: A review

Deep-water potential estuarine and marine benthic habitat types were defined from a variety of new and interpreted data sets in central San Francisco Bay and offshore Golden Gate area including multibeam echosounder (MBES), side-scan sonar and bottom grab samples. Potential estuarine benthic habitats identified for the first time range from hard bedrock outcrops on island and mainland flanks and some Bay floor regions, to soft, very dynamic bedforms consisting of sediment waves and ripples. Soft sediment ranges from mud and sand to bimodal (two or more grain sizes) sediment of gravel, pebbles, and cobbles. In addition, considerable anthropogenic features (i.e., pipelines, bridge abutments, dredged channels, dump sites) were distinguished. Of the 52 potential benthic habitat types mapped (compressed to 14 types for this paper), 24 were of un-consolidated sediment with five of these comprised of dynamic bedforms or sediment waves and dunes, five of mixed (soft over hard) substrate type, six of hard substrate or rock outcrop, 13 of anthropogenically disturbed areas and four hard anthropogenic features. Rock outcrops and rubble are considered the primary habitat type for rockfish ( Sebastes spp. ), lingcod ( Ophiodon elongatus ) and in shallow water for herring ( Clupea pallasii ) spawning. Dynamic bedforms such as sand waves are considered potential foraging habitat for juvenile lingcod, may be sub-tidal habitat for the Pacific sand lance ( Ammodytes hexapterus ) forage fish, and possibly resting habitat for migratory fishes such as sturgeon ( Acipenser medirostris ). The potential marine benthic habitats identified in San Francisco Bay are not unlike those found in other estuaries around the world and this study should contribute significant information that will be of interest to scientists, managers and fishers investigating and utilizing bay and estuarine resources. As described in the many papers of this special issue, the understanding of the interrelationship of geology and ecology is critical to the identification of essential habitats and the sustainability of a healthy ecosystem.

California

Low-altitude photographic transects of the Arctic Network of National Park Units and Selawik National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, July 2013

During July 16–18, 2013, low-level photography flights were conducted (with a Cessna 185 with floats and a Cessna 206 with tundra tires) over the five administrative units of the National Park Service Arctic Network (Bering Land Bridge National Preserve, Cape Krusenstern National Monument, Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, Kobuk Valley National Park, and Noatak National Preserve) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Selawik National Wildlife Refuge in northwest Alaska, to provide images of current conditions and prevalence of land-cover types as a baseline for measuring future change, and to complement the existing grid-based sample photography of the region. Total flight time was 17 hours, 46 minutes, and total flight distance was 2,590 kilometers, at a mean altitude of about 300 meters above ground level. A total of 19,167 photographs were taken from five digital camera systems: 1. A Drift® HD-170 (focal length 5.00 mm); 2. A GoPro® Hero3 Black Edition (focal length 2.77 mm); 3. A Panasonic® Lumix DMC-FZ200 (24× superzoom with variable focal length); 4. A Panasonic® Lumix DMC-SZ7 (10x superzoom with variable focal length); and 5. A Canon® Rebel 3Ti with a Sigma zoom lens (18–200 mm focal length). The Drift® HD-170 and GoPro® Hero3 cameras were secured to the struts and underwing for nadir (direct downward) imaging. The Panasonic® and Canon® cameras were each hand-held for oblique-angle landscape images, shooting through the airplanes’ windows, targeting both general landscape conditions as well as landscape features of special interest, such as tundra fire scars and landslips. The Drift® and GoPro® cameras each were set for time-lapse photography at 5-second intervals for overlapping coverage. Photographs from all cameras (100 percent .jpg format) were date- and time-synchronized to geographic positioning system waypoints taken during the flights, also at 5-second intervals, providing precise geotagging (latitude-longitude) of all files. All photographs were adjusted for color saturation and gamma, and nadir photographs were corrected for lens distortion for the Drift® and GoPro® cameras’ 170° wide-angle distortion. EXIF (exchangeable image file format) data on camera settings and geotagging were extracted into spreadsheet databases. An additional 1 hour, 20 minutes, and 43 seconds of high-resolution videos were recorded at 60 frames per second with the GoPro® camera along selected transect segments, and also were image-adjusted and corrected for lens distortion. Geotagged locations of 12,395 nadir photographs from the Drift® and GoPro® cameras were overlayed in a geographic information system (ArcMap 10.0) onto a map of 44 ecotypes (land- and water-cover types) of the Arctic Network study area. Presence and area of each ecotype occurring within a geographic information system window centered on the location of each photograph were recorded and included in the spreadsheet databases. All original and adjusted photographs, videos, geographic positioning system flight tracks, and photograph databases are available by contacting ascweb@usgs.gov.

Alaska

Cokriging of compositional balances including a dimension reduction and retrieval of original units

Compositional data constitutes a special class of quantitative measurements involving parts of a whole. The sample space has an algebraic-geometric structure different from that of real-valued data. A subcomposition is a subset of all possible parts. When compositional data values include geographical locations, they are also regionalized variables. In the Earth sciences, geochemical analyses are a common form of regionalized compositional data. Ordinarily, there are measurements only at data locations. Geostatistics has proven to be the standard for spatial estimation of regionalized variables but, in general, the compositional character of the geochemical data has been ignored. This paper presents in detail an application of cokriging for the modelling of compositional data using a method that is consistent with the compositional character of the data. The uncertainty is evaluated by a Monte Carlo procedure. The method is illustrated for the contents of arsenic and iron in groundwaters in Bangladesh, which have the peculiarity of being measured in milligrams per litre, units for which the sum of all parts does not add to a constant. Practical results include maps of estimates of the geochemical elements in the original concentration units, as well as measures of uncertainty, such as the probability that the concentration may exceed a given threshold. Results indicate that probabilities of exceedance in previous studies of the same data are too low.

Journal of the Southern African Institute of Minin

Assessment of coastal and fluvial morphodynamic changes using Structure-for-Motion: A case study of the Sfȃntu Gheorghe Mouth (Danube Delta, Romania)

The ability to accurately map erosion, flooding, and habitat loss in coastal environments is crucial for formulating national strategies aimed at preventing and mitigating the impacts of natural disasters. A fundamental component of this process is the implementation of coastal morphodynamics monitoring through Structure-from-Motion (SfM) techniques, utilizing high-resolution 2D/3D data obtained from aerial photogrammetry. To assess morphodynamic changes over a three-year period (2022 – 2024), several SfM-based photogrammetric studies were conducted, each year, in the Romanian sector of the Danube-Black Sea coastal zone, specifically at the mouth of one of the Danube River distributaries (Sf Gheorghe branch) into the Black Sea, and along the left bank, near Sf Gheorghe locality, located within the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve (DDBR). The essential equipment for aerial photogrammetry comprises Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). In this study, the UAV used was a DJI Mavic 3T (Enterprise/Thermal) drone, complemented by two Trimble R12i and R4 GNSS systems, as well as approximately 10 Ground Control Points (GCPs). Data acquisition and processing were carried out using specialized photogrammetric software (Agisoft Metashape) along with various GIS tools (e.g., Blue Marble Geographics Global Mapper and ESRI ArcMap). The photogrammetric products generated for the study, as detailed in this paper, include Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), Digital Terrain Models (DTMs), orthomosaics (orthophotos), and others. At Sfântu Gheorghe beach, a comparison between 2023 and 2024 photogrammetric surveys revealed that the left bank of the Sf. Gheorghe Arm, at the river mouth into the Black Sea, suffered from a twist (erosion) of up to 64 metres. Additionally, on the selected perimetre (total area of 31,910 square meters ) from the beach and dune zone of Sf. Gheorghe, an area of up to 16,202 square meters was eroded between 2023 and 2024. This contrasts with the period between 2022 and 2023, during which deposition predominated. Erosion at the Danube mouths and the adjacent Black Sea coastline is driven by a complex interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors. Natural processes, including subsidence, sea-level rise, and episodic extreme storm events, contribute significantly to coastal dynamics. Meanwhile, human-induced factors, such as upstream hydrotechnical works that limits sediment transport, cutting of navigation canals, as well as the exacerbating effects of climate change, further accelerate erosion. The recent Structure-from-Motion (SfM) surveys provide essential quantitative data, enabling a detailed analysis of both short-term and long-term morphodynamic changes influenced by seasonal variations and extreme hydrometeorological events in this highly dynamic coastal system.

Sfȃntu Gheorghe Mouth (Danube Delta)

Preliminary report on the geology and ground-water supply of the Newark, New Jersey, area

In the Newark area, ground water is used chiefly for industrial cooling, air-conditioning, general processing, and for sanitary purposes. A small amount is used in the manufacture of beverages. Total ground-water pumpage in Newark is estimated at not less than 20,000,000 gallons daily. The Newark area is underlain by formations of Recent, Pleistocene and Triassic age, and the geology and hydrologic properties of these formations are discussed. Attention is called to the important influence of a buried valley in the rock floor beneath the Newark area on the yield of wells located within it. Data on the fluctuation of the water levels and the variation in pumpage are presented, and their significance discussed. The results of a pumping test made during the investigation were inconclusive. The beneficial results of artificially recharging the aquifers in one part of the area are described. The intrusion of salt water into certain parts of the ground-water body is described and graphically portrayed by a map showing the chloride concentration of the ground water in various parts of the City. Insofar as available data permit, the chemical quality of the ground water is discussed and records are given of the ground-water temperatures in various parts of the City. There has been marked lowering of the water table in the eastern part of the area, accompanied by salt water intrusion, indicating that the safe yield of the formations in this part of Newark has probably been exceeded. It is recommended that the study of the ground-water resources of this area be continued, and that artificial recharging of the aquifers be increased over as wide an area as possible.

New Jersey

Classification methods for monitoring Arctic sea ice using OKEAN passive/active two-channel microwave data

This paper presents methods for classifying Arctic sea ice using both passive and active (2-channel) microwave imagery acquired by the Russian OKEAN 01 polar-orbiting satellite series. Methods and results are compared to sea ice classifications derived from nearly coincident Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) image data of the Barents, Kara, and Laptev Seas. The Russian OKEAN 01 satellite data were collected over weekly intervals during October 1995 through December 1997. Methods are presented for calibrating, georeferencing and classifying the raw active radar and passive microwave OKEAN 01 data, and for correcting the OKEAN 01 microwave radiometer calibration wedge based on concurrent 37 GHz horizontal polarization SSM/I brightness temperature data. Sea ice type and ice concentration algorithms utilized OKEAN's two-channel radar and passive microwave data in a linear mixture model based on the measured values of brightness temperature and radar backscatter, together with a priori knowledge about the scattering parameters and natural emissivities of basic sea ice types. OKEAN 01 data and algorithms tended to classify lower concentrations of young or first-year sea ice when concentrations were less than 60%, and to produce higher concentrations of multi-year sea ice when concentrations were greater than 40%, when compared to estimates produced from SSM/I data. Overall, total sea ice concentration maps derived independently from OKEAN 01, SSM/I, and AVHRR satellite imagery were all highly correlated, with uniform biases, and mean differences in total ice concentration of less than four percent (sd<15%).

Remote Sensing of Environment

Downhill from Austin and Ely to Las Vegas: U-Pb detrital zircon suites from the Eocene–Oligocene Titus Canyon Formation and associated strata, Death Valley, California

In a reconnaissance investigation aimed at interrogating the changing topography and paleogeography of the western United States prior to Basin and Range faulting, a preliminary study made use of U-Pb ages of detrital zircon suites from 16 samples from the Eocene–Oligocene Titus Canyon Formation, its overlying units, and correlatives near Death Valley. The Titus Canyon Formation unconformably overlies Neoproterozoic to Devonian strata in the Funeral and Grapevine Mountains of California and Nevada. Samples were collected from (1) the type area in Titus Canyon, (2) the headwaters of Monarch Canyon, and (3) unnamed Cenozoic strata exposed in a klippe of the Boundary Canyon fault in the central Funeral Mountains. Red beds and conglomerates at the base of the Titus Canyon Formation at locations 1 and 2, which contain previously reported 38–37 Ma fossils, yielded mostly Sierran batholith–age detrital zircons (defined by Triassic, Jurassic, and Cretaceous peaks). Overlying channelized fluvial sandstones, conglomerates, and minor lacustrine shale, marl, and limestone record an abrupt change in source region around 38–36 Ma or slightly later, from more local, Sierran arc–derived sediment to extraregional sources to the north. Clasts of red radiolarian-bearing chert, dark radiolarian chert, and quartzite indicate sources in the region of the Golconda and Roberts Mountains allochthons of northern Nevada. Sandstones intercalated with conglomerate contain increasing proportions of Cenozoic zircon sourced from south-migrating, caldera-forming eruptions at the latitude of Austin and Ely in Nevada with maximum depositional ages (MDAs) ranging from 36 to 24 Ma at the top of the Titus Canyon Formation. Carbonate clasts and ash-rich horizons become more prevalent in the overlying conglomeratic Panuga Formation (which contains a previously dated 15.7 Ma ash-flow tuff). The base of the higher, ash-dominated Wahguyhe Formation yielded a MDA of 14.4 Ma. The central Funeral Mountains section exposes a different sequence of units that, based on new data, are correlative to the Titus Canyon, Panuga, and Wahguyhe Formations at locations 1 and 2. An ash-flow tuff above its (unexposed) base provided a MDA of 34 Ma, and the youngest sample yielded a MDA of 12.7 Ma. The striking differences between age-correlative sections, together with map-based evidence for channelization, indicate that the Titus Canyon Formation and overlying units likely represent fluvial channel, floodplain, and lacustrine deposits as sediments mostly bypassed the region, moving south toward the Paleogene shoreline in the Mojave Desert. The profound changes in source regions and sedimentary facies documented in the Titus Canyon Formation took place during ignimbrite flareup magmatism and a proposed eastward shift of the continental divide from the axis of the Cretaceous arc to a new divide in central Nevada in response to thermal uplift and addition of magma to the crust. This uplift initiated south-flowing fluvial systems that supplied sediments to the Titus Canyon Formation and higher units.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah

Clay deposits of the Connecticut River Valley, Connecticut: a special problem in land management

When man first settled the United States, two natural features favored settlement; flat land that was easy to build on and to farm, and a nearby river that could act as a source of water, transportation, and power. The Connecticut River Valley from Middletown, Ct. north past the Connecticut-Massachusetts state line satisfied these two needs, and was favored by many early Americans in New England. This area remains an area of rapid urbanization, partly because of the broad flat lowlands. The subdued topography of this area is due in large part to deposition of fine-grained materials into glacial Lake Hitchcock. This lake was formed during the Wisconsinan age when southward drainage in the Triassic valley of Connecticut was dammed by glacial drift in the area of Rocky Hill, Connecticut. Lake Hitchcock grew to and beyond St. Johnsbury, Vt. with much of the lake being filled with cyclical lake-bottom deposits during the 2,290 to 2,350 years of its life. Aside from the relative flatness inherent in the deposition of fine-grained lake-bottom deposits, these deposits present very few characteristics that are favorable for urbanization. Favorable characteristics are possible sources of clay for manufacturing and possible sources for waste storage sites. Unfavorable characteristics include low water yields resulting in poor urban water-supply sources, and very low flows in streams during dry periods; low percolation rates resulting In drainage and septic problems; and low or uneven bearing strength which create problems in construction. Fine-grained lake-bottom deposits have been mapped for six quadrangles in the Connecticut Valley lowlands; the quadrangles of Windsor Locks, Broad Brook, Hartford North, Manchester, Hartford South, and Glastonbury (all located in Connecticut). All the maps were prepared from existing information including well and test hole data on file at the Water Resources Division in Hartford, surficial geologic quadrangle maps, and bedrock contour maps. The maps also reflect geologic interpretations of the history of glacial Lake Hitchcock. The Hartford North maps were prepared as test maps to determine if the project was feasible. They were prepared using the previously described information plus additional subsurface data obtained from engineering firms and the State Highway Department. During preparation of the maps, an arcuate-shaped, ice-contact deposit composed of coarse sand and gravel was delineated in the Broad Brook and Windsor Locks quadrangles. This feature marks the location of a zone of stagnant ice In front of and marginal to active ice to the north. Two types of maps were prepared for the area in study; Thickness of the Principal Clay Deposit, and Thickness of Material Overlying the Principal Clay Deposit. The term "principal clay deposit" refers to the fine-grained lake-bottom deposits of Glacial Lake Hitchcock. These maps define the distribution of the deposit, and show the thickness of the deposit in 50 foot intervals and the thickness of the material overlying the deposit In 20 foot intervals. The maps indicate that much of the area is underlain with substantial thicknesses of finegrained lake-bottom deposits (50 feet thick or greater), and that much of the deposit is within 20 feet of the surface. The maps included in this report can be used for land-use planning. Uses include location of favorable sites for specific uses such as landfills, utility corridors, heavy construction, etc; location of problem areas for specific land uses; identification of possible problems for specific areas; design and construction cost estimates; and prospecting for exploitable clay deposits. It Is suggested that, for effective planning, these maps be used together or in conjunction with other maps such as maps showing surface materials, depth to bedrock, depth to water table, and flood prone areas.

Connecticut

Paleoseismic study of the South Lajas fault: First documentation of an onshore Holocene fault in Puerto Rico

The island of Puerto Rico is located within the complex boundary between the North America and Caribbean plates. The relative motion along this boundary is dominantly left-lateral strike slip, but compression and extension are locally significant. Although tectonic models proposed for the region suggest the presence of onshore active faults in Puerto Rico, no faults with Holocene displacement have been documented on the island before this study. Current seismic hazard assessments primarily consider only the impact of distant, offshore seismic sources because onshore fault hazard is unknown. Our mapping and trenching studies demonstrate Holocene surface rupture on a previously undocumented fault in southwestern Puerto Rico. We excavated a trench across a scarp near the southern edge of the Lajas Valley that exposed a narrow fault zone disrupting alluvial deposits. Structural relations indicate valley-side-down fault slip, with a component of strike-slip motion. Radiocarbon analyses of organic material collected from the sediments suggest that the most recent surface rupture occurred during the past 5000 yr, but no minimum age has yet been established. This fault may be part of a larger fault zone that extends from the western end of the Lajas Valley toward Ponce, the second largest city in Puerto Rico. ?? 2005 Geological Society of America.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America

The importance of nodal plane orientation diversity for earthquake focal mechanism stress inversions

Inversions of earthquake focal mechanisms are among the most accessible and reliable methods for determining crustal stress. However, the use of this method varies widely, and assumptions that underpin it are often violated, potentially compromising stress estimates. We investigate the consequences of violating the little-studied assumption that the focal mechanisms have diverse orientations. Our approach is to employ data-informed synthetic mechanisms, with nodal plane orientations defined by recent earthquake lineaments in the Midland Basin, western Texas, and rakes consistent with slip in the mapped stress field. Using both the traditional stress inversion method that assumes constant shear stress magnitudes on the causative faults as well as a recently published variable shear stress method, we show that low fault plane diversity can cause maximum horizontal stress ( S Hmax ) orientation and relative principal stress magnitude (faulting regime) estimates to differ markedly from the true values. This problem is compounded for catalogs with even modest amounts of noise (≤15°) or few (e.g., 20) mechanisms. Significantly, traditional approaches for quantifying uncertainty such as the bootstrap can severely underestimate the true uncertainty under these circumstances. To remedy this, we provide simple tools to quantify nodal plane orientation diversity and stress inversion reliability.

Geological Society of London Special Publications

Use case development for earth monitoring, analysis, and prediction (EarthMAP)—A road map for future integrated predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 21st-century science strategy 2020–30 promotes a bureau-wide strategy to develop and deliver an integrated, predictive science capability that works at the scales and timelines needed to inform societally relevant resource management and protection and public safety and environmental health decisions (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). This is the overarching goal of the USGS Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision, which consists of three components: (1) integrated data and information, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information—all designed and delivered to respond to user needs. To launch this vision and help shape the design and implementation of integrated predictive science, the USGS Regional Offices each developed a set of use cases (hereafter Use Cases)—short descriptions of potential science applications that could clearly address high priority decision-making needs of our stakeholders and that align with an integrated science focus. Use Cases are not actionable science planning documents, nor stand-alone scholarly works, but should be considered as innovative, next-generation science ideas that can be considered as potential components of science plans still under development. The goal of Use Case development was to (1) identify and characterize existing USGS scientific capacities and expertise that can support science goals and products, (2) identify opportunities to leverage current capacities for next-generation science, and (3) foster engagement across the entire Bureau to further refine the USGS strategy for EarthMAP and integrated predictive science. The Use Case development effort documented in this report was coordinated by the Use Case Development Team (UCDT), consisting of representatives from each region. The UCDT undertook five tasks: (1) develop a unified approach to engage bureau scientists consistently across all regions in aspirational thinking about what can be accomplished; (2) work with the regions and their Science Centers to generate an initial set of Use Cases, authored directly by scientists; (3) characterize, summarize, and document the initial set of Use Case submissions from authors to illuminate bureau-level demand for integrated science; (4) compare existing and needed capacities from the Use Case descriptions with preliminary results of the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021); and (5) describe lessons learned from the Use Case development process and provide recommendations to inform future efforts to generate integrated science activities. This report outlines the approach the UCDT developed to solicit Use Cases from the regions and summarizes the high-level qualitative findings from this first-round effort. The UCDT received 36 Use Cases from the regions and identified potential points of convergence and commonalities considered useful in making connections among the participating scientists. The Southwest (SW) Region and the Rocky Mountain (RM) Region asked scientists to give special consideration to Use Cases with applicability to the Colorado River Basin, and seven of the Use Cases specifically named that geographic area as a focus. Coastal hazards and coastal resilience were identified in Use Cases from the Alaska (AK), Northeast (NE), and Southeast (SE) Regions. Aspects of wildfire and post-wildfire response were part of Uses Cases from AK, RM, and SW Regions. The greatest convergence of Use Case themes was related to conservation of public lands and waters, which is a powerful linkage lending strength to future collaborative efforts. The most common type of stakeholder decisions that would be informed by the Use Case science applications were related to adaptation, mitigation, and response (for example, how to increase the resilience of coastal communities to climate-related stressors and how to prevent or respond to harmful algal blooms). Other common types of decisions included water and land management decisions (including operational water management decisions such as reservoir operations and land use planning in the sagebrush biome), decisions about how to manage and conserve habitats and species, and risk management decisions (such as managing the post-wildfire flood risks). These decision types are not exclusive because many Use Cases cross categories. Use Case authors identified existing and needed science and technology capabilities required for Use Case implementation, which were then aligned to capabilities assessed in the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021). Strong alignment was found for data and information integration approaches, modeling and prediction approaches, and capabilities related to delivery of actionable information. A majority of Use Cases indicated insufficient current capacity for needed data collection methods, data integration, and modeling and prediction approaches, whereas only 25 percent indicated insufficient capacity for actionable information delivery. Overall, many Use Case capacity demand gaps could potentially be met by existing bureau-wide capacity. In addition, nearly half of the Use Cases could potentially be implemented within 3 years if funding, capabilities, and personnel impediments were removed and science priorities were realigned. Several challenges emerged during the Use Case development process. The first challenge was developing an approach that was flexible enough to accommodate regional differences in planning and implementation, while also ensuring enough guidance to promote meaningful summary analyses. The UCDT encountered a strong demand for continuous communication and education to improve overall understanding of the integrated predictive science strategy. Another challenge was managing expectations about EarthMAP activities as a design effort that was not aligned to an immediate funding opportunity. Connecting the Use Cases to stakeholder needs without the opportunity for direct stakeholder engagement was also challenging. The last notable challenge was in obtaining consistent interpretation and characterization of the qualitative data housed in the narrative descriptions of Use Cases, written in different styles. Overall, the 36 Use Cases can serve as components of a road map for advancing integrated monitoring and predictive science throughout the USGS by revealing opportunities to (1) encourage cross-region initiatives that address shared interests in common themes by integrating similar Use Cases and through direct involvement of stakeholders in identifying needs and designing effective responses, (2) leverage the Use Cases to target investments that are aligned with the Bureau and Department of the Interior (DOI) priorities, (3) connect Use Cases and the results of the companion EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021) to identify potential priorities for capacity building investments, and (4) raise awareness of common integrated and interdisciplinary science interests within and across the regions through Use Case and Capacity Assessment summary outreach activities.

Open-File Report

The Maryland Coastal Plain Aquifer Information System: A GIS-based tool for assessing groundwater resources

Groundwater is the source of drinking water for &sim;1.4 million people in the Coastal Plain Province of Maryland (USA). In addition, groundwater is essential for commercial, industrial, and agricultural uses. Approximately 0.757 &times; 109 L d &ndash;1 (200 million gallons/d) were withdrawn in 2010. As a result of decades of withdrawals from the coastal plain confined aquifers, groundwater levels have declined by as much as 70 m (230 ft) from estimated prepumping levels. Other issues posing challenges to long-term groundwater sustainability include degraded water quality from both man-made and natural sources, reduced stream base flow, land subsidence, and changing recharge patterns (drought) caused by climate change. In Maryland, groundwater supply is managed primarily by the Maryland Department of the Environment, which seeks to balance reasonable use of the resource with long-term sustainability. The chief goal of groundwater management in Maryland is to ensure safe and adequate supplies for all current and future users through the implementation of appropriate usage, planning, and conservation policies. To assist in that effort, the geographic information system (GIS)&ndash;based Maryland Coastal Plain Aquifer Information System was developed as a tool to help water managers access and visualize groundwater data for use in the evaluation of groundwater allocation and use permits. The system, contained within an ESRI ArcMap desktop environment, includes both interpreted and basic data for 16 aquifers and 14 confining units. Data map layers include aquifer and &shy;confining unit layer surfaces, aquifer extents, borehole information, hydraulic properties, time-series groundwater-level data, well records, and geophysical and lithologic logs. The aquifer and confining unit layer surfaces were generated specifically for the GIS system. The system also contains select groundwater-quality data and map layers that quantify groundwater and surface-water withdrawals. The aquifer information system can serve as a pre- and postprocessing environment for groundwater-flow models for use in water-supply planning, development, and management. The system also can be expanded to include features that evaluate constraints to groundwater development, such as insufficient available drawdown, degraded groundwater quality, insufficient aquifer yields, and well-field interference. Ultimately, the aquifer information system is intended to function as an interactive Web-based utility that provides a broad array of information related to groundwater resources in Maryland&rsquo;s coastal plain to a wide-ranging audience, including well drillers, consultants, academia, and the general public.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America

Characterizing Manatee habitat use and seagrass grazing in Florida and Puerto Rico: Implications for conservation and management

The Indian River Lagoon on the Atlantic coast of Florida, USA, and the east coast of Puerto Rico provide contrasting environments in which the endangered West Indian Manatee Trichechus manatus experiences different thermal regimes and seagrass communities. We compare Manatee feeding behaviour in these two regions, examine the ecological effects of Manatee grazing on a seagrass community in the Indian River Lagoon, describe the utility of aerial surveys, radio tracking, and seagrass mapping to study Manatee feeding patterns, and develop hypotheses on sirenian feeding strategies in temperate and tropical seagrass communities. In both the Indian River Lagoon and Puerto Rico, Manatees were typically observed grazing in water depths = 2.0 m and more frequently on the most abundant seagrasses present in the community: Halodule wrightii in the Indian River Lagoon and Thalassia testudinum in eastern Puerto Rico. Where both H. wrightii and Syringodium filiforme were consumed in the Indian River Lagoon, Manatees tended to remove more S. filiforme than H. wrightii rhizome + root biomass. Even though 80 to 95% of the short-shoot biomass and 50 to 67% of the rhizome + root biomass were removed, grazed patches of H. wrightii and S. filiforme recovered significantly between February and August. H. wrightii may be both more resistant and resilient than S. filiforme to the impacts of Manatee grazing. Despite the significantly greater abundance of T. testudinum in Puerto Rico, Manatees exhibited selective feeding by returning to specific sites with abundant H. wrightii. They also appeared to feed selectively on T. testudinum shoots associated with clumps of the calcareous alga Halimeda opuntia. We hypothesize that Florida Manatees are less specialized seagrass grazers than Manatees in tropical regions like Puerto Rico. Continued research on Manatee grazing ecology in temperate to tropical seagrass communities will enable better protection and management of these vital and unique marine resources.

Florida

A methodology for adaptable and robust ecosystem services assessment

Ecosystem Services (ES) are an established conceptual framework for attributing value to the benefits that nature provides to humans. As the promise of robust ES-driven management is put to the test, shortcomings in our ability to accurately measure, map, and value ES have surfaced. On the research side, mainstream methods for ES assessment still fall short of addressing the complex, multi-scale biophysical and socioeconomic dynamics inherent in ES provision, flow, and use. On the practitioner side, application of methods remains onerous due to data and model parameterization requirements. Further, it is increasingly clear that the dominant “one model fits all” paradigm is often ill-suited to address the diversity of real-world management situations that exist across the broad spectrum of coupled human-natural systems. This article introduces an integrated ES modeling methodology, named ARIES (ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services), which aims to introduce improvements on these fronts. To improve conceptual detail and representation of ES dynamics, it adopts a uniform conceptualization of ES that gives equal emphasis to their production, flow and use by society, while keeping model complexity low enough to enable rapid and inexpensive assessment in many contexts and for multiple services. To improve fit to diverse application contexts, the methodology is assisted by model integration technologies that allow assembly of customized models from a growing model base. By using computer learning and reasoning, model structure may be specialized for each application context without requiring costly expertise. In this article we discuss the founding principles of ARIES - both its innovative aspects for ES science and as an example of a new strategy to support more accurate decision making in diverse application contexts.

PLoS ONE