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North American osprey populations and contaminants: Historic and contemporary perspectives

Osprey ( Pandion haliaetus ) populations were adversely affected by DDT and perhaps other contaminants in the United States and elsewhere. Reduced productivity, eggshell thinning, and high DDE concentrations in eggs were the signs associated with declining osprey populations in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. The species was one of the first studied on a large scale to bring contaminant issues into focus. Although few quantitative population data were available prior to the 1960s, many osprey populations in North America were studied during the 1960s and 1970s with much learned about basic life history and biology. This article reviews the historical and current effects of contaminants on regional osprey populations. Breeding populations in many regions of North America showed post-DDT-era (1972) population increases of varying magnitudes, with many populations now appearing to stabilize at much higher numbers than initially reported in the 1970s and 1980s. However, the magnitude of regional population increases in the United States between 1981 (first Nationwide Survey, ∼8,000 pairs), when some recovery had already occurred, 1994 (second survey, ∼14,200), and 2001 (third survey, ∼16,000–19,000), or any other years, is likely not a simple response to the release from earlier contaminant effects, but a response to multi-factorial effects. This indirect “contaminant effects” measurement comparing changes (i.e., recovery) in post-DDT-era population numbers over time is probably confounded by changing human attitudes toward birds of prey (shooting, destroying nests, etc.), changing habitats, changing fish populations, and perhaps competition from other species. The species' adaptation to newly created reservoirs and its increasing use of artificial nesting structures (power poles, nesting platforms, cell towers, channel markers, offshore duck blinds, etc.) are two important factors. The timing of the initial use of artificial nesting structures, which replaced declining numbers of suitable trees at many locations, varied regionally (much later in the western United States and Mexico). Because of the increasing use of artificial nesting structures, there may be more ospreys nesting in North America now than ever before. Now, with the impact of most legacy organic contaminants (DDT, other organochlorine [OC] pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls [PCB], polychlorinated dibenzo- p -dioxins [PCDD], polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDF]) greatly reduced or eliminated, and some osprey populations showing evidence of stabilizing, the species was proposed as a Worldwide Sentinel Species for evaluating emerging contaminants. Several emerging contaminants are already being studied, such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE) and perfluorinated acids and sulfonate compounds (PFC). The many advantages for continued contaminant investigations using the osprey include a good understanding of its biology and ecology, its known distribution and abundance, and its ability to habituate to humans and their activities, which permits nesting in some of the potentially most contaminated environments. It is a top predator in most ecosystems, and its nests are relatively easy to locate and study with little researcher impact on reproductive success.

Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Pa↗

Interdisciplinary science approach for harmful algal blooms (HABs) and algal toxins—A strategic science vision for the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary Algal blooms in water, soils, dusts, and the environment have captured national attention because of concerns associated with exposure to algal toxins for humans and animals. Algal blooms naturally occur in all surface-water types and are important primary producers for aquatic ecosystems. However, excessive algae growth can be associated with many harmful effects ranging from aesthetic to toxicity concerns, so this excessive growth is commonly called a harmful algal bloom (HAB). Ecological imbalances that can lead to excessive algal growth, such as increased nutrient availability to waterbodies from natural and anthropogenic sources, are well documented in scientific literature. On the other hand, fundamental scientific understandings of environmental causes and controls leading to algal toxin production, environmental exposures, and adverse health outcomes for humans and animals could benefit from more attention by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists. Understanding when, why, and how the toxin is produced by individual algal cells or communities and why the toxin is released to the surrounding waterbody requires fundamental research to determine a toxin’s role, whether it provides competitive advantage or if other potential reasons exist for toxin production and release, such as secretions from otherwise benign biological processes. This research will require groundbreaking scientific discovery about underlying biologic and abiotic (non-living) processes commonly complicated by local variation in land use, microbial species composition, and ecosystem structure of the surrounding watershed. Although underlying processes by which HABs form may be similar from one waterbody to another, individual waterbodies may be controlled by local factors for HAB development and toxin production that are unique to the watershed. Consequently, many fundamental science gaps exist that prevent informed mitigation and prevention of toxic HAB events. There are also gaps in understanding local conditions that control algal growth unique to specific watersheds. Addressing these science gaps is needed to inform evidence-based decisions that protect human and animal health and that reduce recreational and socioeconomic losses.

Circular↗

Ungulate migration in a changing climate—An initial assessment of climate impacts, management priorities, and science needs

Executive Summary Migratory behavior among ungulates in the Western United States occurs in response to changing forage quality and quantity, weather patterns, and predation risk. As snow melts and vegetation green-up begins in late spring and early summer, many migratory ungulates leave their winter range and move to higher elevation summer ranges to access high-quality forage and areas with vegetative cover for protection during fawning. Ungulates remain on these ranges until the fall when increasing snowfall and decreasing temperatures trigger them to migrate back to their lower elevation winter ranges. While researchers have begun to assess the effects of physical barriers such as roads and energy infrastructure on migration, less attention has been paid to understanding how changing climate conditions might affect ungulate movements and range habitats. Does earlier spring green-up make ungulates leave their winter ranges sooner? Do persistent drought conditions reduce the carrying capacity of seasonal range habitats or lead to shifts in migration pathways? These and other questions remain largely unanswered but could have cascading effects on ungulate population dynamics and migratory behavior. In February 2018, the Secretary of the Interior signed Department of the Interior Secretarial Order 3362 (SO3362), “Improving Habitat Quality in Western Big-Game Winter Range and Migration Corridors.” The order, which focuses on elk, mule deer, and pronghorn in 11 Western States, directs the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the National Park Service (NPS), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to partner with State wildlife agencies on their priorities and objectives for identifying and conserving ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat. The USGS Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) were established to help managers of the Nation’s fish, wildlife, waters, and lands understand the effects of climate change and adapt to changing conditions. To support the recent Department of the Interior (DOI) emphasis on ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat, this report assesses current information on how climate change could affect elk, mule deer, and pronghorn migration. The report synthesizes the drivers of migration, outlines what is known about how climate change might affect these drivers, and summarizes management priorities and science needs related to ungulate migration corridors and range habitat. A review of the literature on ungulate migration shows that the core drivers of spring migration are the timing of spring green-up and snowmelt, and the core driver of fall migration is winter severity. After exploring what is known about how these drivers affect or could be affected by climate change, several pathways through which ungulate migration could be altered were identified: (1) ungulates alter migration timing to better track plant phenology or in response to changes in winter conditions; (2) ungulates change their migration route or distance traveled during migration to accommodate changes in environmental conditions; and (3) ungulate populations that are currently migratory may begin to demonstrate interannual variability in whether they migrate, depending on environmental conditions and density-dependence, and may remain resident for sets of consecutive years. Through discussions with managers, physical barriers to movement such as roads and fences were identified as a core concern. In addition, the primary research needs of States are the acquisition and analysis of data on ungulate movements, to refine delineation of winter range, summer range, and corridors, and to support a better understanding of how ungulates use these habitats. When it comes to understanding climate effects, managers were more concerned with understanding the vulnerability of winter- and summer-range habitats than the vulnerability of migration corridors because of the influence of summer and winter forage on ungulate condition and reproductive success. Managers were also concerned about how forage quality and quantity might change because of stressors such as drought, wildfire, and invasive species and how they might need to alter habitat-treatment strategies as a result. More baseline data are needed before effective projections of ungulate migration, at a West-wide scale under climate change, can be made. These data needs include (1) more clearly defined corridors and seasonal range habitats; (2) a comprehensive understanding of the ecological drivers of migration across ungulate species and populations; and (3) the identification of environmental thresholds for key variables that influence migration, above which ungulates alter migratory behavior. The CASCs have several opportunities to play a role in addressing these needs. The CASCs could initiate projects to identify past and potential future changes and trends in key variables known to affect ungulate migration, such as plant phenology, forage quality, or winter severity. However, it would be difficult to use this information to determine what those trends mean for ungulate migration due to the lack of knowledge about environmental thresholds for ungulates. Additional projects would be required to compare multiple years of movement data with key variables to define thresholds. Once available, information on environmental thresholds could be integrated with projections of key variables to forecast the likelihood that the migration routes or the distance traveled could change—another area in which the CASCs could contribute. A more immediate role for the CASCs would be to carry out synthesis projects. One such project could summarize the “state of the science” on the drivers of ungulate migration. Although there are dozens of population- and location-specific studies on this topic, collating this information could help highlight trends in migration drivers that span species and geographies: a necessary first step toward determining the extent to which migration drivers could be affected by climate change. A second project could focus on what is known about how climate variability and change affect ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in the Western United States. The goal of this effort could be to identify knowledge clusters and information gaps that require further investigation. Together, these synthesized products could focus future scientific activities on the most pressing issues of ungulate migration and climate change in the Western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New↗

Diatoms.org: Supporting taxonomists, connecting communities

Consistent identification of diatoms is a prerequisite for studying their ecology, biogeography, and successful application as environmental indicators. However, taxonomic consistency among observers has been difficult to achieve because taxonomic information is scattered across numerous literature sources, presenting challenges to the diatomist. Firstly, literature is often inaccessible because of cost or its location in journals that are not widely circulated. Secondly, taxonomic revisions of diatoms are taking place faster than floras can be updated. Finally, taxonomic information is often contradictory across literature sources. These issues can be addressed by developing a content creation community dedicated to making taxonomic, ecological, and image-based data freely available for diatom researchers. Diatoms.org represents such a content curation community, providing open, online access to a vast amount of recent and historical information on North American diatom taxonomy and ecology. The content curation community aggregates existing taxonomic information, creates new content, and provides feedback in the form of corrections and notices of literature with nomenclatural changes. The website not only addresses the needs of experienced diatom scientists for consistent identification but is also designed to meet users at their level of expertise, including engaging the lay public in the importance of diatom science. The website now contains over 1000 species pages contributed by over 100 content contributors, from students to established scientists. The project began with the intent to provide accurate information on diatom identification, ecology, and distribution using an approach that incorporates engaging design, user feedback, and advanced data access technology. In retrospect, the project that began as an ‘extended electronic book’ has emerged not only as a means to support taxonomists, but for practitioners to communicate and collaborate, expanding the size of and benefits to the content curation community. In this paper, we outline the development of diatoms.org , document key elements of the project, examine ongoing challenges and consider the unexpected emergent properties, including the value of diatoms.org as a source of data. Ultimately, if the field of diatom taxonomy, ecology, and biodiversity is to be relevant, a new generation of taxonomists needs to be trained and employed using new tools. We propose that diatoms.org is in a key position to serve as a hub of training and continuity for the study of diatom biodiversity and aquatic conditions.

Diatom Research↗

The ecology of dust

Wind erosion and associated dust emissions play a fundamental role in many ecological processes and provide important biogeochemical connectivity at scales ranging from individual plants up to the entire globe. Yet, most ecological studies do not explicitly consider dust‐driven processes, perhaps because most relevant research on aeolian (wind‐driven) processes has been presented in a geosciences rather than an ecological context. To bridge this disciplinary gap, we provide a general overview of the ecological importance of dust, examine complex interactions between wind erosion and ecosystem dynamics from the scale of plants and surrounding space to regional and global scales, and highlight specific examples of how disturbance affects these interactions and their consequences. It is likely that changes in climate and intensification of land use will lead to increased dust production from many drylands. To address these issues, environmental scientists, land managers, and policy makers need to consider wind erosion and dust emissions more explicitly in resource management decisions.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

Building a multi-scaled geospatial temporal ecology database from disparate data sources: Fostering open science through data reuse

Although there are considerable site-based data for individual or groups of ecosystems, these datasets are widely scattered, have different data formats and conventions, and often have limited accessibility. At the broader scale, national datasets exist for a large number of geospatial features of land, water, and air that are needed to fully understand variation among these ecosystems. However, such datasets originate from different sources and have different spatial and temporal resolutions. By taking an open-science perspective and by combining site-based ecosystem datasets and national geospatial datasets, science gains the ability to ask important research questions related to grand environmental challenges that operate at broad scales. Documentation of such complicated database integration efforts, through peer-reviewed papers, is recommended to foster reproducibility and future use of the integrated database. Here, we describe the major steps, challenges, and considerations in building an integrated database of lake ecosystems, called LAGOS (LAke multi-scaled GeOSpatial and temporal database), that was developed at the sub-continental study extent of 17 US states (1,800,000 km 2 ). LAGOS includes two modules: LAGOS GEO , with geospatial data on every lake with surface area larger than 4 ha in the study extent (~50,000 lakes), including climate, atmospheric deposition, land use/cover, hydrology, geology, and topography measured across a range of spatial and temporal extents; and LAGOS LIMNO , with lake water quality data compiled from ~100 individual datasets for a subset of lakes in the study extent (~10,000 lakes). Procedures for the integration of datasets included: creating a flexible database design; authoring and integrating metadata; documenting data provenance; quantifying spatial measures of geographic data; quality-controlling integrated and derived data; and extensively documenting the database. Our procedures make a large, complex, and integrated database reproducible and extensible, allowing users to ask new research questions with the existing database or through the addition of new data. The largest challenge of this task was the heterogeneity of the data, formats, and metadata. Many steps of data integration need manual input from experts in diverse fields, requiring close collaboration.

Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Ma↗

Biological pathways of exposure and ecotoxicity values for uranium and associated radionuclides: Chapter D in Hydrological, geological, and biological site characterization of breccia pipe uranium deposits in Northern Arizona

This chapter compiles available chemical and radiation toxicity information for plants and animals from the scientific literature on naturally occurring uranium and associated radionuclides. Specifically, chemical and radiation hazards associated with radionuclides in the uranium decay series including uranium, thallium, thorium, bismuth, radium, radon, protactinium, polonium, actinium, and francium were the focus of the literature compilation. In addition, exposure pathways and a food web specific to the segregation areas were developed. Major biological exposure pathways considered were ingestion, inhalation, absorption, and bioaccumulation, and biota categories included microbes, invertebrates, plants, fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. These data were developed for incorporation into a risk assessment to be conducted as part of an environmental impact statement for the Bureau of Land Management, which would identify representative plants and animals and their relative sensitivities to exposure of uranium and associated radionuclides. This chapter provides pertinent information to aid in the development of such an ecological risk assessment but does not estimate or derive guidance thresholds for radionuclides associated with uranium. Previous studies have not attempted to quantify the risks to biota caused directly by the chemical or radiation releases at uranium mining sites, although some information is available for uranium mill tailings and uranium mine closure activities. Research into the biological impacts of uranium exposure is strongly biased towards human health and exposure related to enriched or depleted uranium associated with the nuclear energy industry rather than naturally occurring uranium associated with uranium mining. Nevertheless, studies have reported that uranium and other radionuclides can affect the survival, growth, and reproduction of plants and animals. Exposure to chemical and radiation hazards is influenced by a plant’s or an animal’s life history and surrounding environment. Various species of plants, invertebrates, fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals found in the segregation areas that are considered species of concern by State and Federal agencies were included in the development of the site-specific food web. The utilization of subterranean habitats (burrows in uranium-rich areas, burrows in waste rock piles or reclaimed mining areas, mine tunnels) in the seasonally variable but consistently hot, arid environment is of particular concern in the segregation areas. Certain species of reptiles, amphibians, birds, and mammals in the segregation areas spend significant amounts of time in burrows where they can inhale or ingest uranium and other radionuclides through digging, eating, preening, and hibernating. Herbivores may also be exposed though the ingestion of radionuclides that have been aerially deposited on vegetation. Measured tissues concentrations of uranium and other radionuclides are not available for any species of concern in the segregation areas. The sensitivity of these animals to uranium exposure is unknown based on the existing scientific literature, and species-specific uranium presumptive effects levels were only available for two endangered fish species known to inhabit the segregation areas. Overall, the chemical toxicity data available for biological receptors of concern were limited, although chemical and radiation toxicity guidance values are available from several sources. However, caution should be used when directly applying these values to northern Arizona given the unique habitat and life history strategies of biological receptors in the segregation areas and the fact that some guidance values are based on models rather than empirical (laboratory or field) data. No chemical toxicity information based on empirical data is available for reptiles, birds, or wild mammals; therefore, the risks associated with uranium and other radionuclides are unknown for these biota.

Arizona↗

Effects of environment and metacommunity delineation on multiple dimensions of stream fish beta diversity

Introduction: Beta diversity represents changes in community composition among locations across a landscape. While the effects of human activities on beta diversity are becoming clearer, few studies have considered human effects on the three dimensions of beta diversity: taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic. Including anthropogenic factors and multiple dimensions of biodiversity may explain additional variation in stream fish beta diversity, providing new insight into how metacommunities are structured within different spatial delineations. Methods: In this study, we used a 350 site stream fish abundance dataset from South Carolina, United States to quantify beta diversity explainable by spatial, natural environmental, and anthropogenic variables. We investigated three spatial delineations: (1) a single whole-state metacommunity delineated by political boundaries, (2) two metacommunities delineated by a natural geomorphic break separating uplands from lowlands, and (3) four metacommunities delineated by natural watershed boundaries. Within each metacommunity we calculated taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic beta diversity and used variation partitioning to quantify spatial, natural environmental, and anthropogenic contributions to variations in beta diversity. Results: We explained 25–81% of the variation in stream fish beta diversity. The importance of these three factors in structuring metacommunities differed among the diversity dimensions, providing complementary perspectives on the processes shaping beta diversity in fish communities. The effect of spatial, natural environmental, and anthropogenic factors varied among the spatial delineations, which indicate conclusions drawn from variation partitioning may depend on the spatial delineation chosen by researchers. Discussion: Our study highlights the importance of considering human effects on metacommunity structure, quantifying multiple dimensions of beta diversity, and careful consideration of user-defined metacommunity boundaries in beta diversity analyses.

South Carolina↗

Integrated monitoring of ecological conditions in wetland-upland landscapes

Landscapes of interwoven wetlands and uplands offer a rich set of ecosystem goods and services. Managing lands to maximize ecosystem services requires information that distinguishes change caused by local actions from broader-scale shifts in climate, land use, and other forms of global change. Satellite and airborne sensors collect valuable data for this purpose, especially when the data are analyzed along with data collected from ground-based sensors. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using remote sensing technology in this way as part of the Terrestrial Wetland Global Change Research Network to assess effects of climate change interacting with land-use change and other potential stressors along environmental gradients of wetland-upland landscapes in the United States and Canada.

Fact Sheet↗

Genetically-informed seed transfer zones for Pleuraphis jamesii, Sphaeralcea parvifolia, and Sporobolus cryptandrus across the Colorado Plateau and adjacent regions

(Massatti) Introduction: The majority of native plant materials (NPMs) utilized for restoration purposes are developed for widely distributed species that provide a variety of ecosystem services (Wood et al. 2015; Butterfield et al. 2017). Disturbed ecosystems benefit from the use of appropriate NPMs, which are those that display ecological fitness at the restoration site, are compatible with conspecifics and other members of the plant community, and that do not demonstrate invasive tendencies (Jones 2013). Furthermore, the use of appropriate NPMs can help address specific environmental challenges, rejuvenate ecosystem function, and improve the delivery of ecosystem services (Hughes 2008). While many NPMs have been developed for restoration (e.g., Aubry et al. 2005), there is interest in broadening the diversity of species available and the geographic representation of sources to provide appropriate choices in relation to the characteristics of any restoration site. In addition, researchers are providing guidance to managers and practitioners regarding how best to transfer NPMs across the landscape. For example, guidance on seed transfer has been derived from genecological studies, which utilize common gardens to correlate phenotypic variation to environmental gradients (summarized in Kilkenny 2015), molecular studies, which identify putative adaptive genetic loci and infer environmental drivers of variation (Shryock et al. 2017), and climate modeling studies, which can provide guidance when species-specific data are unavailable (Bower et al. 2014; Doherty et al. 2017). All of these approaches intend to improve the long-term viability of NPMs at restoration sites, thereby improving outcomes and stretching limiting restoration resources (e.g., time and money).

Colorado Plateau↗

Interactions of an insecticide, herbicide, and natural stressors in amphibian community mesocosms

Amphibians developing in wetlands embedded within or near agricultural lands may frequently encounter chemical mixtures. The objectives of our study were to determine the effects that post-application concentrations of an insecticide (carbaryl) and an herbicide (atrazine) have on body mass, development, and survival of two anuran species (southern leopard frog, Rana sphenocephala ; American toad, Bufo americanus ) and two caudate species (spotted salamander, Ambystoma maculatum ; small-mouthed salamander, A. texanum ) reared in outdoor cattle tank mesocosms. In one experiment, we manipulated tadpole density (low or high), carbaryl exposure (0, 3.5, 7.0 mg/L), and atrazine exposure (0 or 200 μg/L) to test for effects on development, mass, and survival of larvae. In a second experiment, we manipulated pond hydroperiod (constant or drying), carbaryl exposure (0 or 5 mg/L), and atrazine exposure (0 or 200 μg/L) to test for effects on mass, time, and survival to metamorphosis. Salamanders were virtually eliminated in carbaryl treatments, indicating that at realistic levels, this insecticide could cause population declines for salamanders in contaminated habitats. Carbaryl also had negative effects on toad survival. Exposure to atrazine had negative effects on body size, development, and time to metamorphosis in anuran species, which were associated with reduced chlorophyll levels. Both chemicals interacted significantly with density or hydroperiod, indicating that the environmental conditions could influence the impact of a contaminant. A significant atrazine-by-carbaryl interaction resulted in smaller and less developed spotted salamander larvae than in control ponds. Atrazine exposure, however, appeared to moderate negative effects of carbaryl for spotted salamanders. Our research suggests that important changes in the community's food web result from chemical exposure, which influence the susceptibility of amphibian species to contaminants.

Ecological Applications↗

Learning from real-world experience to understand renewable energy impacts to wildlife

The project team sought to use real-world data to understand adverse effects to wildlife of renewable energy production that is critical to meeting California’s climate and clean energy goals. The project had three main components. First, a systematic literature review studied 20 peer-reviewed publications and 612 reports from other nonreviewed sources from 231 wind and solar facilities in North America. Within California, 50 percent of facilities collected pre- and post-construction data, 30 percent had experimental study designs, and fewer than 7 percent estimated detection probability during habitat use surveys. Mitigation at wind power plants focused on repowering to reduce risk to soaring birds and at solar facilities emphasized wildlife deterrence and compensatory mitigation. Second, the authors developed a best-practices approach to employ environmental isotopes (for example, hydrogen obtained from animal tissue) and rescaling functions (a statistical approach to modeling the relationship between variables) to assign individual birds or bats to their place of origin. The team applied this approach to feathers from 411 individuals of 12 species killed at wind facilities and 515 individuals of 19 species killed at solar facilities. From 24 percent to 100 percent (mean +/- SD = 49 percent +/- 33 percent) and 25 percent to 100 percent (73 percent +/- 25 percent) of birds grew feathers at a location outside the collection site at wind and solar facilities, respectively. Third, the authors constructed Bayesian integrated population models (probability models) for 29 focal species affected by wind or solar energy generation in California. Species predominantly local in origin generally had lower population growth rates than did species that were predominantly nonlocal in origin. These patterns illustrate the complex linkages between behavioral ecology, vulnerability to mortality, and population-level impacts to wildlife from fatalities at renewable energy facilities. This project benefits the renewable energy sector by providing a framework and specific tools for understanding environmental impacts of renewable energy generation.

California↗

An overview of the Southern Nevada Agency Partnership science and research synthesis

Maintaining and restoring the diverse ecosystems and resources that occur in southern Nevada in the face of rapid socio-economic and ecological change presents numerous challenged to Federal land managers. Rapid population growth since the 1980s, the land uses associated with that growth, and the interactions of those uses with the generally dry and highly variable climate result in numerous stresses to ecosystems, species, and cultural resource. In addition, climate models predict that the rate of temperature increase and, thus, changes in ecological processes, will be highest for ecosystems like the Mojave Desert. The Southern Nevada Agency Partnership (SNAP; http:www.SNAP.gov) was established in 1999 to address common issues pertaining to public lands in southern Nevada. Partners include the Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and USDA Forest Service and they work with each other, the local community, and other partners. SNAP agencies manage more than seven million acres of public lands in southern Nevada (95% of the land area). Federal land includes two national recreation areas, two national conservation area, four national wildlife refuges, 18 congressionally designated wilderness areas, five wilderness study areas, and 22 areas of critical environmental concern. The partnership's activities are mainly centered in Southern Nevada's Clark County (fig. 1.1), but lands managed by SNAP partner agencies also include portions of Lake Mead National Recreation Area in Mohave County, Arizona, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and USDA Forest Service-managed lands in Lincoln and Nye Counties, Nevada, and all lands and activities managed by the Southern Nevada District Office of the Bureau of Land Management. These lands encompass nine distinct ecosystem types (fig. 1.2), support multiple species of management concern an 17 listed species, and are rich in cultural and historic resource. This introductory executive summary discusses the Science and Research Strategy developed by the SNAP agencies, the Science and Research Report, and need for science-based management in southern Nevada.

Nevada↗

Indicators of climate impacts for forests: Recommendations for the U.S. National Climate Assessment Indicators system

The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) process for the United States focused in part on developing a system of indicators to communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness to inform decisionmakers and the public. Initially, 13 active teams were formed to recommend indicators in a range of categories, including forest, agriculture, grassland, phenology, mitigation, and physical climate. This publication describes the work of the Forest Indicators Technical Team. We briefly describe the NCA indicator system effort, propose and explain our conceptual model for the forest system, present our methods, and discuss our recommendations. Climate is only one driver of changes in U.S. forests; other drivers include socioeconomic drivers such as population and culture, and other environmental drivers such as nutrients, light, and disturbance. We offer additional details of our work for transparency and to inform an NCA indicator Web portal. We recommend metrics for 11 indicators of climate impacts on forest, spanning the range of important aspects of forest as an ecological type and as a sector. Some indicators can be reported in a Web portal now; others need additional work for reporting in the near future. Indicators such as budburst, which are important to forest but more relevant to other NCA indicator teams, are identified. Potential indicators that need more research are also presented.

Report↗

Model description and evaluation of the mark-recapture survival model used to parameterize the 2012 status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris )

This report provides supporting details and evidence for the rationale, validity and efficacy of a new mark-recapture model, the Barker Robust Design, to estimate regional manatee survival rates used to parameterize several components of the 2012 version of the Manatee Core Biological Model (CBM) and Threats Analysis (TA). The CBM and TA provide scientific analyses on population viability of the Florida manatee subspecies ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) for U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s 5-year reviews of the status of the species as listed under the Endangered Species Act. The model evaluation is presented in a standardized reporting framework, modified from the TRACE (TRAnsparent and Comprehensive model Evaluation) protocol first introduced for environmental threat analyses. We identify this new protocol as TRACE-MANATEE SURVIVAL and this model evaluation specifically as TRACE-MANATEE SURVIVAL, Barker RD version 1. The longer-term objectives of the manatee standard reporting format are to (1) communicate to resource managers consistent evaluation information over sequential modeling efforts; (2) build understanding and expertise on the structure and function of the models; (3) document changes in model structures and applications in response to evolving management objectives, new biological and ecological knowledge, and new statistical advances; and (4) provide greater transparency for management and research review.

Open-File Report↗

Signals of impending change

Society has an increasing awareness that there are finite limits to what we can expect the planet to absorb and still provide goods and services at current rates 1 . Both historical reconstructions and contemporary events continue to remind us that ecological regime changes are often abrupt rather than gradual. This reality motivates researchers who seek to discover leading indicators for impending ecosystem change. Berdugo et al . 2 report an important advance in our ability to anticipate the conversion of arid lands from self-organized, self-maintaining and productive ecosystems, to a state characterized by disorganization and low functionality. Such conversions have important implications for our understanding of ‘desertification’ — which is a shift from arid to desert-like conditions. Theoretical studies have suggested that patterns in the patchiness of vegetation might indicate how close a system is to making an abrupt change to desert-like conditions 3 , 4 , 5 . Empirical studies, however, have tended to show instead that simply the total cover of vegetation, rather than its arrangement, often foretells the state of the system 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 . Berdugo et al . 2 combine these competing ideas into one integrated perspective. They show how major environmental drivers, such as aridity, influence both vegetation cover and patchiness, as well as where self-organizing, stabilizing forces in the vegetation are likely to be found.

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗

Summary of studies supporting cumulative effects analysis of upper Yellowstone River channel modifications

During the last several decades, portions of the upper Yellowstone River have been modified for flood control and erosion prevention. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is responsible for administration of a permit program for evaluating construction activities affecting rivers, streams, and wetlands. The Corps regulates activities under the authority of Section 10 of the Rivers and Harbors Act and Section 404 of the Clean Water Act. Since assumption of jurisdiction in the mid-1970’s, the Corps has processed a total of 156 permit actions for the upper Yellowstone River. Over two-thirds of the permit actions occurred during or after two consecutive large floods during 1996 and 1997. In response to concern regarding the potential environmental and ecological consequences of channel modification, the Corps, in conjunction with State and local government agencies, initiated a series of scientific studies to better understand the effects of channel modification in the upper Yellowstone River (Figure 1). These included preparation of wetland and riparian inventory maps (Bon, 2001); hydraulic modeling and flood-plain delineation; watershed land-cover assessment (Pick and Potter, 2003); historic bottomland use analysis (Brelsford and others, 2003); analysis of channel modification effects on fish habitat (Bowen and others, 2003); comparison of juvenile salmonid use of modified and unmodified habitats (Zale and Rider, 2003); analysis of riparian vegetation and flood-plain turnover (Merigliano and Polzin, 2003); study of the relations between riparian habitat and bird communities (Hansen and others, 2003); analyses of geomorphology and historical channel changes (Dalby and Robinson, 2003); socioeconomic assessment (BBC Research and Consulting, 2002); and sediment transport investigations and modeling (Holnbeck, 2003). This report is a summary of results from the individual scientific studies as they bear on future programmatic cumulative effects analyses of channel modification of the upper Yellowstone River. We do not attempt a formal, cumulative impact assessment in the sense of evaluating alternatives or future scenarios. The first section presents major findings of the resource studies in terms of temporal comparisons, spatial comparisons, and causal relations. In this section, we present a series of conceptual models or flow diagrams of the major causal pathways of cumulative impacts from channel modification. These represent major pathways of potential impact based on knowledge from other rivers, concerns expressed about the upper Yellowstone, and results from the scientific studies. These diagrams serve to focus interpretation of study results as either supporting or not supporting the importance and magnitude of particular causal relations and to identify key linking variables appearing in multiple causal pathways. These key variables that connect channel modification actions to multiple, valued environmental attributes can serve as the foundation for both projecting and monitoring future responses of the system. A section on analytical realities outlines some of the limitations of projecting cumulative impacts from channel modification of the upper Yellowstone River on meaningful spatial and temporal scales and some of the difficulties of interpreting results from studies conducted shortly after two extreme floods and substantial increases in channel modification. A section on classification describes the two primary geomorphic classification systems of the upper Yellowstone River used in the various individual resource studies. Each of these systems has been valuable in supporting field sampling and expressing results concerning patterns of variation. Their integration or revision into a classification system to achieve some new purpose, such as a regulatory program or monitoring system, will depend on a crisp articulation of riverine management or regulatory objectives. A section on key variables identifies those that are central to the causal pathways connecting channel modification to impacts and provides a rationale for key variables as an alternative to other tools such as Proper Functioning Condition (Barrett and others, 1993), Index of Biotic Integrity (Karr, 1981), or the Synoptic Approach (Liebowitz and others, 1992). This section also explains relations among key variable to Hydrogeomorphic (HGM) assessment procedures (Hauer and Smith, 1998; Hauer and others, 2001) and outlines how these 2 variables might be monitored to track cumulative impacts. Examples of how selected key variables can be quantified using Geographic Information System data sets developed from the resource studies are presented for one reach. The largest portion of the document is an Appendix that summarizes each of the individual scientific studies in terms of scope and methods, findings, principal variables, and metrics used in the study or suggested by the study results, and important needs for further study.

Montana↗

Linking the concept of scale to studies of biological diversity: evolving approaches and tools.

Although the concepts of scale and biological diversity independently have received rapidly increasing attention in the scientific literature since the 1980s, the rate at which the two concepts have been investigated jointly has grown much more slowly. We find that scale considerations have been incorporated explicitly into six broad areas of investigation related to biological diversity: (1) heterogeneity within and among ecosystems, (2) disturbance ecology, (3) conservation and restoration, (4) invasion biology, (5) importance of temporal scale for understanding processes, and (6) species responses to environmental heterogeneity. In addition to placing the papers of this Special Feature within the context of brief summaries of the expanding literature on these six topics, we provide an overview of tools useful for integrating scale considerations into studies of biological diversity. Such tools include hierarchical and structural-equation modelling, kriging, variable-width buffers, k -fold cross-validation, and cascading graph diagrams, among others. Finally, we address some of the major challenges and research frontiers that remain, and conclude with a look to the future.

Diversity and Distributions↗