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Developing accurate survey methods for estimating population sizes and trends of the critically endangered Nihoa Millerbird and Nihoa Finch.

This report describes the results of a comparative study of bird survey methods undertaken for the purpose of improving assessments of the conservation status for the two endemic passerines on the Island of Nihoa—Nihoa Millerbird (Sylviidae: Acrocephalus familiaris kingi ) and Nihoa Finch (Fringilidae: Telespiza ultima ; also referred herein as millerbird and finch)—both listed as endangered under the Federal Endangered Species Act (ESA) and Hawai`i Revised Statutes 195D. The current survey protocol, implemented since 1967, has produced a highly variable range of counts for both the millerbird and finch, making difficult assessments of population size and trend. This report details the analyses of bird survey data collected in 2010 and 2011 in which three survey methods were compared―strip-transect, line-transect, and point-transect sampling―and provides recommendations for improved survey methods and protocols. Funding for this research was provided through a Science Support Partnership grant sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Point-transect surveys indicated that millerbirds were more abundant than shown by the striptransect method, and were estimated at 802 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 652 – 964) and 704 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 579 – 837). Point-transect surveys yielded population estimates with improved precision which will permit trends to be detected in shorter time periods and with greater statistical power than is available from strip-transect survey methods. Mean finch population estimates and associated uncertainty were not markedly different among the three survey methods, but the performance of models used to estimate density and population size are expected to improve as the data from additional surveys are incorporated. Using the pointtransect survey, the mean finch population size was estimated at 2,917 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 2,037 – 3,965) and 2,461 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 1,682 – 3,348). Preliminary testing of the line-transect method in 2011 showed that it would not generate sufficient detections to effectively model bird density, and consequently, relatively precise population size estimates. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and appear to occur in all or nearly all available habitat. The time expended and area traversed by observers was similar among survey methods; however, point-transect surveys do not require that observers walk a straight transect line, thereby allowing them to avoid culturally or biologically sensitive areas and minimize the adverse effects of recurrent travel to any particular area. In general, pointtransect surveys detect more birds than strip-survey methods, thereby improving precision and resulting population size and trend estimation. The method is also better suited for the steep and uneven terrain of Nihoa

Hawaii

Development of a robust analytical framework for assessing landbird trends, dynamics and relationships with environmental covariates in the North Coast and Cascades Network

During 2015-2016, we completed development of a new analytical framework for landbird population monitoring data from the National Park Service (NPS) North Coast and Cascades Inventory and Monitoring Network (NCCN). This new tool for analysis combines several recent advances in modeling population status and trends using point-count data and is designed to supersede the approach previously slated for analysis of trends in the NCCN and other networks, including the Sierra Nevada Network (SIEN). Advances supported by the new model-based approach include 1) the use of combined data on distance and time of detection to estimate detection probability without assuming perfect detection at zero distance, 2) seamless accommodation of variation in sampling effort and missing data, and 3) straightforward estimation of the effects of downscaled climate and other local habitat characteristics on spatial and temporal trends in landbird populations. No changes in the current field protocol are necessary to facilitate the new analyses. We applied several versions of the new model to data from each of 39 species recorded in the three mountain parks of the NCCN, estimating trends and climate relationships for each species during 2005-2014. Our methods and results are also reported in a manuscript in revision for the journal Ecosphere (hereafter, Ray et al.). Here, we summarize the methods and results outlined in depth by Ray et al., discuss benefits of the new analytical framework, and provide recommendations for its application to synthetic analyses of long-term data from the NCCN and SIEN. All code necessary for implementing the new analyses is provided within the Appendices to this report, in the form of fully annotated scripts written in the open-access programming languages R and JAGS.

Natural Resource Report

Statistical review of systematic reconnaissance flight (SRF) surveys (2008-2023) for monitoring American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) nests in Everglades National Park

We reviewed current (2008-2023) protocols for monitoring American alligator nests in Everglades National Park (ENP) using a qualitative statistical review framework that emphasizes connecting measurable objectives with evaluation of survey design elements. Our review outlined the statistical assumptions that, if severely violated, would prevent defensible inferences from being drawn regarding the three alligator nesting metrics monitored in ENP’s systematic reconnaissance flight (SRF) surveys: nest effort (number of nests), nest distribution, and nest fate. After evaluating the current survey and inference methods, we offer potential adjustments or augmentations to the design and models currently used to better account for potential error sources and align the stated objectives with statistical inferences.

Florida

Biodiversity surveys of Wake Atoll—Featuring field guides for plants, arthropods, and herpetofauna

Introduction The U.S. Air Force (USAF) issued funds to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to update the biosecurity plan, create a current (2019) flora and fauna species identification index, and do container evaluations for the presence of potential invasives. The current (2019) biosecurity protocols used for prevention were evaluated, and new biodiversity surveys were completed for terrestrial vegetation and arthropods and included the first formal reptile surveys. Results from field efforts add to existing knowledge and may identify new species arrivals to Wake. One goal of this project was to update and compile established species information for the atoll and create species identification guides for the three taxonomic groups surveyed. We made these flora and fauna species identification guides by compiling results of the recent (2019) and historical surveys. The guides can be used as resident desktop references, as a baseline for assessing future natural resource surveys, and to assist with guiding management actions. We refer herein to biosecurity and integrated pest management plan materials, which we created simultaneously to inform current (2019) biosecurity and to identify some of the top invasive species at Wake. This study was done in cooperation with the USAF, and surveys were performed for the 611th Civil Engineer Squadron Natural Resources Program, ACES PROJECT #YGFZ170002 under agreement number F2MUAA7116GW02 between the USAF and the USGS Western Ecological Research Center.

Open-File Report

Interaction of ambient conditions and fecal coliform bacteria in southern Lake Michigan beach waters: Monitoring program implications

Excessive fecal coliform bacteria in public swimming waters can potentially threaten visitor health. Fecal coliform bacteria (1984-1989) and Escherichia coli (1990-1995) density were monitored weekly at the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore beaches for 12 summers, and park officials closed swimming areas when fecal coliform density exceeded the state water quality criteria (400 CFU fecal coliforms/ 100 ml; 235 CFU E. coli/100 ml water). Due to a 24-hour incubation in the fecal coliform and E. coli assays, beaches were closed the day after collection of high fecal coliform. Our analysis suggests that it is not possible to predict one day's fecal coliform count based on the previous day's results in waters taken from southern Lake Michigan beaches. Dispersal and deposition of bacteria were not uniform among sites or across time apparently due to interactions among environmental variables including rainfall, wind direction, water temperature, and bacteria source. Rainfall combined with northwest winds increased bacteria concentrations. Escherichia coli followed a seasonal trend with similar fluctuations in density among beaches. We suggest that the current beach monitoring protocol is inadequate for predicting fecal coliform density at the time of beach closure, and, subsequently, its use for ensuring visitor safety remains questionable.

Indiana

Elk Monitoring Protocol for Lewis and Clark National Historical Park, Version 1.0

Maintaining elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) herds that frequent Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (NHP) is central to the park’s purpose of preserving the historic, cultural, scenic, and natural resources. Elk were critical to sustaining the members of the Lewis and Clark expedition by providing food and clothing over the winter of 1805-1806. Today, elk viewing opportunities in the park and surrounding region generate broad appeal with the visiting public, which number over 250,000 per year at the Fort Clatsop visitor center. This protocol describes procedures for monitoring trends in the use of the Fort Clatsop area by Roosevelt elk. Specific objectives of elk monitoring in Lewis and Clark NHP are to measure the relative use and proportion of area used by elk during winter in the Fort Clatsop Unit of the park, and the rate at which elk are sighted from roads in and around the park. Relative use and the proportion of area used by elk are determined from elk fecal pellet surveys conducted every other year in the Fort Clatsop park unit. Pairs of observers visit a systematic array of permanent plots in the fall to clear them of elk fecal pellets, and return to the plots in late winter to count elk fecal pellets that have accumulated during winter. Half of the subplots are counted by two independent observers, which allows for the estimation of relative use and proportion of area occupied by elk with analyses of detection biases that account for unseen elk pellet groups. Standardized road surveys are conducted in and near the Fort Clatsop park unit three or four times monthly during alternate months. Data from road surveys are used to quantify the rate that park visitors would be expected to see elk, when driving the selected set of routes. The monitoring protocol is based on three field seasons of development and testing. The protocol narrative describes the background, rationale, sampling design, field methods, analytical methods, data management, reporting, personnel requirements, and operational requirements for elk monitoring in Lewis and Clark NHP. The sampling design reflects tradeoffs between statistical and ecological considerations, safety, and current budget considerations. The protocol provides adequate power to detect a doubling or halving of elk use in the Fort Clatsop unit and surrounding areas within 15 years. Step-by-step guidance for planning and completing the monitoring tasks are in the attached standard operating procedures (SOPs). Information on the status and trends of elk use in Lewis and Clark NHP will allow park managers to assess the effects on elk of restoration programs within the park, build community partnerships, and identify potential linkages between regional land use changes and elk use of the Park. Lewis and Clark NHP has an active ecological restoration program that aims to recreate, where possible, ecological conditions that Lewis and Clark encountered. The restoration program includes an extensive exotic plant removal program, wetland restoration, and silvicultural treatments that will hasten development of late-seral conditions in recently acquired forest lands of the Fort Clatsop park unit. In the future, monitoring results can be used to test for spatial associations between ecological restoration treatments and relative use by elk. The park also plans to feature results from elk monitoring prominently in its educational outreach activities to help interpret the historical and current ecological context of the Lewis and Clark story, and engender public support for the park mission and management activities. Although NPS does not manage non-park lands, information about trends in the distribution of elk use will be valuable in public outreach and discussions with other partnering agencies and regional private landowners.

Natural Resource Report

Optimizing larval assessment to support sea lamprey control in the Great Lakes

Elements of the larval sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) assessment program that most strongly influence the chemical treatment program were analyzed, including selection of streams for larval surveys, allocation of sampling effort among stream reaches, allocation of sampling effort among habitat types, estimation of daily growth rates, and estimation of metamorphosis rates, to determine how uncertainty in each element influenced the stream selection program. First, the stream selection model based on current larval assessment sampling protocol significantly underestimated transforming sea lam-prey abundance, transforming sea lampreys killed, and marginal costs per sea lamprey killed, compared to a protocol that included more years of data (especially for large streams). Second, larval density in streams varied significantly with Type-I habitat area, but not with total area or reach length. Third, the ratio of larval density between Type-I and Type-II habitat varied significantly among streams, and that the optimal allocation of sampling effort varied with the proportion of habitat types and variability of larval density within each habitat. Fourth, mean length varied significantly among streams and years. Last, size at metamorphosis varied more among years than within or among regions and that metamorphosis varied significantly among streams within regions. Study results indicate that: (1) the stream selection model should be used to identify streams with potentially high residual populations of larval sea lampreys; (2) larval sampling in Type-II habitat should be initiated in all streams by increasing sampling in Type-II habitat to 50% of the sampling effort in Type-I habitat; and (3) methods should be investigated to reduce uncertainty in estimates of sea lamprey production, with emphasis on those that reduce the uncertainty associated with larval length at the end of the growing season and those used to predict metamorphosis.

Journal of Great Lakes Research

Temporal-spatial distribution of American bison (Bison bison) in a tallgrass prairie fire mosaic

Fire and bison (Bison bison) are thought to be historically responsible for shaping prairie vegetation in North America. Interactions between temporal-spatial distributions of bison and prescribed burning protocols are important in current restoration of tallgrass prairies. We examined dynamics of bison distribution in a patch-burned tallgrass prairie in the south-central United States relative to bison group size and composition, and burn age and temporal distribution. Bison formed larger mixed groups during summer and smaller sexually segregated groups the rest of the year, and bison selected dormant-season burn patches in the 1st posture growing season most often during spring and summer. Large bison herds selecting recently burned areas resulted in seasonally variable and concentrated grazing pressure that may substantially alter site-specific vegetation. These dynamics must be considered when reintroducing bison and fire into tallgrass prairie because variable outcomes of floral richness and structural complexity are likely depending on temporal-spatial distribution of bison. ?? 2006 American Society of Mammalogists.

Journal of Mammalogy

Soil organic carbon stocks in Alaska estimated with spatial and pedon data

Temperatures in high-latitude ecosystems are increasing faster than the average rate of global warming, which may lead to a positive feedback for climate change by increasing the respiration rates of soil organic C. If a positive feedback is confirmed, soil C will represent a source of greenhouse gases that is not currently considered in international protocols to regulate C emissions. We present new estimates of the stocks of soil organic C in Alaska, calculated by linking spatial and field data developed by the USDA NRCS. The spatial data are from the State Soil Geographic database (STATSGO), and the field and laboratory data are from the National Soil Characterization Database, also known as the pedon database. The new estimates range from 32 to 53 Pg of soil organic C for Alaska, formed by linking the spatial and field data using the attributes of Soil Taxonomy. For modelers, we recommend an estimation method based on taxonomic subgroups with interpolation for missing areas, which yields an estimate of 48 Pg. This is a substantial increase over a magnitude of 13 Pg estimated from only the STATSGO data as originally distributed in 1994, but the increase reflects different estimation methods and is not a measure of the change in C on the landscape. Pedon samples were collected between 1952 and 2002, so the results do not represent a single point in time. The linked databases provide an improved basis for modeling the impacts of climate change on net ecosystem exchange.

Soil Science Society of America Journal

eMODIS: A User-Friendly Data Source

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center is generating a suite of products called 'eMODIS' based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data acquired by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth Observing System (EOS). With a more frequent repeat cycle than Landsat and higher spatial resolutions than the Advanced Very High Resolution Spectroradiometer (AVHRR), MODIS is well suited for vegetation studies. For operational monitoring, however, the benefits of MODIS are counteracted by usability issues with the standard map projection, file format, composite interval, high-latitude 'bow-tie' effects, and production latency. eMODIS responds to a community-specific need for alternatively packaged MODIS data, addressing each of these factors for real-time monitoring and historical trend analysis. eMODIS processes calibrated radiance data (level-1B) acquired by the MODIS sensors on the EOS Terra and Aqua satellites by combining MODIS Land Science Collection 5 Atmospherically Corrected Surface Reflectance production code and USGS EROS MODIS Direct Broadcast System (DBS) software to create surface reflectance and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products. eMODIS is produced over the continental United States and over Alaska extending into Canada to cover the Yukon River Basin. The 250-meter (m), 500-m, and 1,000-m products are delivered in Geostationary Earth Orbit Tagged Image File Format (Geo- TIFF) and composited in 7-day intervals. eMODIS composites are projected to non-Sinusoidal mapping grids that best suit the geography in their areas of application (see eMODIS Product Description below). For eMODIS products generated over the continental United States (eMODIS CONUS), the Terra (from 2000) and Aqua (from 2002) records are available and continue through present time. eMODIS CONUS also is generated in an expedited process that delivers a 7-day rolling composite, created daily with the most recent 7 days of acquisition, to users monitoring real-time vegetation conditions. eMODIS Alaska is not part of expedited processing, but does cover the Terra mission life (2000-present). A simple file transfer protocol (FTP) distribution site currently is enabled on the Internet for direct download of eMODIS products (ftp://emodisftp.cr.usgs.gov/eMODIS), with plans to expand into an interactive portal environment.

Open-File Report

Solid state recording current meter conversion

The authors describe the conversion of an Endeco-174 current meter to a solid-state recording current meter. A removable solid-state module was designed to fit in the space originally occupied by an 8-track tape cartridge. The module contains a CPU and 128 kilobytes of nonvolatile CMOS memory. The solid-state module communicates with any terminal or computer using an RS-232C interface at 4800 baud rate. A primary consideration for conversion was to keep modifications of the current meter to a minimum. The communication protocol was designed to emulate the Endeco tape translation unit, thus the need for a translation unit was eliminated and the original data reduction programs can be used without any modification. After conversion, the data recording section of the current meter contains no moving parts; the storage capacity of the module is equivalent to that of the original tape cartridge.

Conference Paper

Protocol for determining bull trout presence

The Western Division of the American Fisheries Society was requested to develop protocols for determining presence/absence and potential habitat suitability for bull trout. The general approach adopted is similar to the process for the marbled murrelet, whereby interim guidelines are initially used, and the protocols are subsequently refined as data are collected. Current data were considered inadequate to precisely identify suitable habitat but could be useful in stratifying sampling units for presence/absence surveys. The presence/absence protocol builds on previous approaches (Hillman and Platts 1993; Bonar et al. 1997), except it uses the variation in observed bull trout densities instead of a minimum threshold density and adjusts for measured differences in sampling efficiency due to gear types and habitat characteristics. The protocol consists of: 1. recommended sample sizes with 80% and 95% detection probabilities for juvenile and resident adult bull trout for day and night snorkeling and electrofishing adjusted for varying habitat characteristics for 50m and 100m sampling units, 2. sampling design considerations, including possible habitat characteristics for stratification, 3. habitat variables to be measured in the sampling units, and 3. guidelines for training sampling crews. Criteria for habitat strata consist of coarse, watershed-scale characteristics (e.g., mean annual air temperature) and fine-scale, reach and habitat-specific features (e.g., water temperature, channel width). The protocols will be revised in the future using data from ongoing presence/absence surveys, additional research on sampling efficiencies, and development of models of habitat/species occurrence.

Report

Developing approaches for linear mixed modeling in landscape genetics through landscape-directed dispersal simulations

Dispersal can impact population dynamics and geographic variation, and thus, genetic approaches that can establish which landscape factors influence population connectivity have ecological and evolutionary importance. Mixed models that account for the error structure of pairwise datasets are increasingly used to compare models relating genetic differentiation to pairwise measures of landscape resistance. A model selection framework based on information criteria metrics or explained variance may help disentangle the ecological and landscape factors influencing genetic structure, yet there are currently no consensus for the best protocols. Here, we develop landscape-directed simulations and test a series of replicates that emulate independent empirical datasets of two species with different life history characteristics (greater sage-grouse; eastern foxsnake). We determined that in our simulated scenarios, AIC and BIC were the best model selection indices and that marginal R 2 values were biased toward more complex models. The model coefficients for landscape variables generally reflected the underlying dispersal model with confidence intervals that did not overlap with zero across the entire model set. When we controlled for geographic distance, variables not in the underlying dispersal models (i.e., nontrue) typically overlapped zero. Our study helps establish methods for using linear mixed models to identify the features underlying patterns of dispersal across a variety of landscapes.

Ecology and Evolution

Umbilical scarring in hatchling American alligators

Umbilical scarring is the presence of excess scar tissue deposited between abdominal dermal layers at the site of yolk sac absorption in hatchling American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis). The presence of this dermal condition plays a key evaluatory role in the overall quality and subsequent value for various commercial leather products. Despite the prevalent nature of this condition, currently the industry has no standardized protocols for its quantification. The objectives of this study were to examine the relationship between hatchling weight and age and incidence of umbilical scarring and to develop a quantifiable and reproducible technique to measure this dermal condition in hatchling American alligators. Thirty eggs from each of nine clutches were incubated in two separate incubators at different facilities and hatchling umbilical scarring was measured at 2 and 10 days of age using digital calipers. Umbilical area was calculated by multiplying umbilical length times umbilical width. There was a significant effect of both age and clutch on umbilical area (overall decline of 64%) by 10 days post-hatch. However, only five of the nine clutches utilized expressed a noticeable decline in the size of this dermal condition (range 67-74%). We had hypothesized that larger hatchlings would have larger umbilical areas and a slower rate of improvement in this condition during the first few days post-hatch. The differences in umbilical area and percent decline with age across clutches, however, were not associated with differences in initial hatchling weights. Within clutches and time periods, hatchling weight had no significant effect on the size and/or rate of decline of this condition. ?? 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Aquaculture

Native Prairie Adaptive Management: a multi region adaptive approach to invasive plant management on Fish and Wildlife Service owned native prairies

Much of the native prairie managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the northern Great Plains is extensively invaded by the introduced cool-season grasses, smooth brome ( Bromus inermis ) and Kentucky bluegrass ( Poa pratensis ). Management to suppress these invasive plants has had poor to inconsistent success. The central challenge to managers is selecting appropriate management actions in the face of biological and environmental uncertainties. In partnership with the FWS, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed an adaptive decision support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions under uncertainty and maximizing learning from management outcomes. This joint partnership is known as the Native Prairie Adaptive Management (NPAM) initiative. The NPAM decision framework is built around practical constraints faced by FWS refuge managers and includes identification of the management objective and strategies, analysis of uncertainty and construction of competing decision models, monitoring, and mechanisms for model feedback and decision selection. Nineteen FWS field stations, spanning four states of the PPR, have participated in the initiative. These FWS cooperators share a common management objective, available management strategies, and biological uncertainties. Though the scope is broad, the initiative interfaces with individual land managers who provide site-specific information and receive updated decision guidance that incorporates understanding gained from the collective experience of all cooperators. We describe the technical components of this approach, how the components integrate and inform each other, how data feedback from individual cooperators serves to reduce uncertainty across the whole region, and how a successful adaptive management project is coordinated and maintained on a large scale. During an initial scoping workshop, FWS cooperators developed a consensus management objective: increase the composition of native grasses and forbs on native sod while minimizing cost. Cooperators agreed that decision guidance should be provided annually and should account for local, real-time vegetation conditions observed on the ground. Over the course of development, two prototypes of the decision framework were considered. The final framework recognized four alternative actions that managers could take in any given year: (1) Graze—targeted use of grazing ungulates to achieve defoliation, (2) Burn—application of prescribed fire as the single form of defoliation, (3) Burn/Graze—a combination treatment, and (4) Rest—no action. The study area included northern mixed-grass and tallgrass prairie. Native vegetation in mixed–grass prairie has a strong cool-season component and thus the dominant native species have a phenology similar to that of smooth brome and Kentucky bluegrass, making management of those species challenging. In contrast, tallgrass prairie has a strong warm-season native component, leading to an existence of cool-season windows, periods of time in the fall and spring when cool‐season invasive grass species are actively growing and vulnerable to damage via select management actions, but warm‐season grass species are not active and are thus less susceptible to damage via the same actions. This dichotomy between prairie types necessitated the development of separate but parallel decision support systems for mixed-grass and tallgrass biomes. Management units are parcels of native prairie that receive a single management treatment at any one time over their entire extent. At any particular time, the vegetation state of each management unit is characterized by the amount of cover of native grasses and forbs and the type of invasive grass that is dominant. In addition, each unit has a defoliation state which reflects the number of years since the last defoliation event and an index to how intensively the unit was managed during the previous 7 years. State-transition models are used to predict the state of a management unit in year t+1 from its state in year t and a prescribed management action that was applied between the two monitoring events. Alternative models are built around key uncertainties that make choice of a management action difficult. Three uncertainties revolve around whether the effect of management actions depends on (1) type of dominant invader, (2) past defoliation history, and (3) level of invasion. Two additional uncertainties are considered when choosing a management action for tallgrass units: (4) the effectiveness of grazing within the cool-season window as a surrogate for burning when smooth brome is the dominant invader, and (5) the differential effect of active management outside the window as compared to rest. Because data on the probability of transitioning from one state to another under the various models were lacking, expert opinion and elicitation were used to parameterize the models. In addition, cooperators participated in elicitation exercises to extract their beliefs regarding the value of having native prairie compared to the cost of achieving it. Quantifying the subjective expression of utility in this way allowed for mathematical representation of the management objective into an objective function. By maximizing the objective function, cumulative utility is maximized, leading to the identification of a sequence of decisions that will achieve the management objective. The NPAM system adopted a vegetation monitoring protocol that was rapid, inexpensive, and familiar to many of the cooperators. The monitoring protocol served three purposes: (1) determining current vegetation and defoliation states of each unit, (2) evaluating progress toward the management objective, and (3) assessing predictive performance of the alternative models. The management year runs from September 1 to August 31. Management can be applied anytime during that period and monitoring takes places from late June to mid-August. Cooperators enter vegetation data and management information into a centralized database by August 25 of each year. Given the current state of the system (vegetation and defoliation states) and the current understanding of the system (or the belief state), identifying the current best management decision is a matter of looking up the combination (that is, system state and belief state) in the appropriate (mixed-grass or tallgrass) optimal decision table. Given complete uncertainty at the outset of decision-making, initial assignment of equal belief weights to each model was believed reasonable. The decisions in the optimal decision table that correspond to the current belief state constitute the current optimal decision policy. By August 31 of each year, individual cooperators are provided with a recommended management action for each of their management units for the upcoming management year. Upon receiving the management recommendations for their units, managers consider the recommendation, along with other relevant information, and at some point during the year one of the management alternatives is carried out. This iterative cycle of making and implementing a management decision, predicting the response, monitoring the outcome, comparing predicted and observed outcomes, updating model weights, and recommending a management action for the next cycle is expected to result in an accumulation of weight on a representative model of system dynamics, thereby increasing understanding needed to effectively manage native prairies. The NPAM system is now entering its second full year of complete operation, and represents one of only a few fully implemented applications of adaptive management within the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. NPAM is truly unique in that it originated from the ground up as a result of the leadership and steadfastness of several refuge biologists and managers confronted with a common problem. These biologists recognized that working together across a large landscape presented perhaps the best opportunity for halting and reversing the invasion of native grasslands by non-native cool-season grasses. Importantly, the NPAM system encapsulates the collective thinking and experience of tens if not hundreds of individuals who have battled this vexing problem for much of their careers. The NPAM initiative is rooted in principles of adaptive management, thereby affording the opportunity for grassland managers to pursue management objectives while acquiring information to reduce uncertainty and improve future management. The project introduced a number of technical innovations that will serve as templates for conservation efforts throughout and beyond the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. First, NPAM is an on-the-ground implementation of active adaptive management—possibly the first of its kind in conservation management—in which recommended management actions result from a prospective analysis of future learning (Williams, 1996). Second, by the use of dynamic optimization, NPAM demonstrates how decisions can be made that take into account possible future transitions of the system. Third, NPAM demonstrates how models of partial controllability are an effective means of accommodating unpredictable circumstances that cause a manager to follow a different course than was intended. Finally, the database developed for NPAM is an unparalleled system that enables the rapid integration of data from the field for the generation of ‘just-in-time’ management recommendations. In all, NPAM provides an example of how a science-management partnership can be forged to achieve large-scale conservation objectives.

Minnesota;Montana;North Dakota;South Dakota

BioData: A national aquatic bioassessment database

BioData is a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) web-enabled database that for the first time provides for the capture, curation, integration, and delivery of bioassessment data collected by local, regional, and national USGS projects. BioData offers field biologists advanced capabilities for entering, editing, and reviewing the macroinvertebrate, algae, fish, and supporting habitat data from rivers and streams. It offers data archival and curation capabilities that protect and maintain data for the long term. BioData provides the Federal, State, and local governments, as well as the scientific community, resource managers, the private sector, and the public with easy access to tens of thousands of samples collected nationwide from thousands of stream and river sites. BioData also provides the USGS with centralized data storage for delivering data to other systems and applications through automated web services. BioData allows users to combine data sets of known quality from different projects in various locations over time. It provides a nationally aggregated database for users to leverage data from many independent projects that, until now, was not feasible at this scale. For example, from 1991 to 2011, the USGS Idaho Water Science Center collected more than 816 bioassessment samples from 63 sites for the National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program and more than 477 samples from 39 sites for a cooperative USGS and State of Idaho Statewide Water Quality Network (fig. 1). Using BioData, 20 years of samples collected for both of these projects can be combined for analysis. BioData delivers all of the data using current taxonomic nomenclature, thus relieving users of the difficult and time-consuming task of harmonizing taxonomy among samples collected during different time periods. Fish data are reported using the Integrated Taxonomic Information Service (ITIS) Taxonomic Serial Numbers (TSN's). A simple web-data input interface and self-guided, public data-retrieval web site provides access to bioassessment data. BioData currently accepts data collected using two national protocols: (1) NAWQA and (2) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA). Additional collection protocols are planned for future versions.

Fact Sheet

Mount Rainier National Park and Olympic National Park Elk Monitoring Program Annual Report 2010

Fiscal year 2010 was the third year of gathering data needed for protocol development while simultaneously implementing what is expected to be the elk monitoring protocol at Mount Rainier (MORA) and Olympic (OLYM) national parks in the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN). Elk monitoring in these large wilderness parks relies on aerial surveys from a helicopter. Summer surveys are planned for both parks and are intended to provide quantitative estimates of abundance, sex and age composition, and distribution of migratory elk in high elevation trend count areas. Spring surveys are planned at Olympic National Park and are intended to provide quantitative estimates of abundance of resident and migratory elk on low-elevation winter ranges within surveyed trend count areas. An unknown number of elk is not detected during surveys. The protocol under development aims to estimate the number of missed elk by applying a model that accounts for detection bias. Detection bias in elk surveys in MORA will be estimated using a double-observer sightability model that was developed based on data from surveys conducted in 2008-2010. The model was developed using elk that were previously equipped with radio collars by cooperating tribes. That model is currently in peer review. At the onset of protocol development in OLYM there were no existing radio- collars on elk. Consequently double-observer sightability models have not yet been developed for elk surveys in OLYM; the majority of the effort in OLYM has been focused on capturing and radio collaring elk to permit the development of sightability models for application in OLYM. As a result, no estimates of abundance or composition are included in this annual report, only raw counts of the numbers of elk seen in surveys. At MORA each of the two trend count areas (North Rainier herd, and South Rainier herd) were surveyed twice. 290 and 380 elk were counted on the two replicates in the North Rainier herd, and 621 and 327 elk counted on the two replicate South Rainier counts. At Olympic National Park, each of three spring trend count areas was surveyed once in March 2010. 27 elk were observed in the South Fork Hoh trend count area, 137 elk were observed in the Hoh trend count area, and 131 elk were observed in the Queets trend count area. In September 2010, 18 elk were captured and fitted with radio collars as part of a contracted animal capture, eradication and tagging of animals (ACETA) operation. These animals will be available to contribute double-observer sightability data in future spring and summer surveys. There were no summer surveys for elk in OLYM in 2010.

Washington

Analysis and review of fishery-dependent data for Hawaiian nearshore noncommercial fisheries

Noncommercial, shore-based fisheries provide economic, social, and cultural services to communities throughout the Hawaiian Islands. The State of Hawai‘i Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR), Division of Aquatic Resources (DAR) routinely conducts surveys to monitor noncommercial fisheries such that estimates of fishing effort and catch by gear type can be generated and used to implement more sustainable management practices. DAR executes both the Hawai‘i Marine Recreational Fishery Survey (HMRFS), a nationally standardized survey that focuses on intercepting fishers at access points (i.e., boat ramps) across the main Hawaiian Islands, and a set of roving creel surveys on O‘ahu, Maui Nui, and Kaua‘i that observe and intercept fishers at locations along the shoreline outside of those targeted by HMRFS. The latter set of creel surveys were designed to complement HMRFS by expanding its geographic coverage and thus providing a more representative picture of noncommercial fishing in Hawai‘i. Sustainable management priorities set by DAR rely on the availability of statewide, fishery- dependent data. Thus, we collate information from island-based roving creel surveys into a cohesive Statewide Creel Survey Database. Further, we provide preliminary analyses and describe ways that surveys could be streamlined to improve future data collection, analysis, and utility. In so doing, we synthesize the most detailed information to-date about noncommercial shore-based fisheries of Hawai‘i. The unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage of DAR’s dataset reveals the value of their survey efforts over the last decade to address fishery management needs. Our primary objectives, results, and conclusions are summarized below: 1) Integrate DAR roving creel survey data from different islands into a single Statewide Creel Survey Dataset (Chapter II). We describe the collation of creel survey data from O‘ahu, Maui Nui, and Kaua‘i into a statewide dataset. We also offer ways in which these surveys could be streamlined to meet the needs of managers and decision makers. Briefly, these are to create a statewide strategic plan, standardize the execution of standard operating procedures, centralize the creel survey database and associated metadata, and consider using technology that improves the data pipeline, including transitioning from paper-based to electronic systems for data entry and processing. 2) Assess whether the new Statewide Creel Survey Dataset can provide inputs for length-based stock assessments (Chapter III). Only on Maui were interviews conducted with associated catch data. There was reasonably high taxonomic coverage (42 species from 186 interviews with 310 fishers), but low sample sizes for nearly all species precluded the development of length-based stock assessments. We provide summary statistics from the existing data and briefly discuss how technologies could be used to automate analysis of images of noncommercial catch. 3) Analyze the Statewide Creel Survey Dataset for spatial and temporal patterns in fishing effort (Chapter IV): a. Visualizing noncommercial fishing pressure . We found that fishing effort (mean number of fishers observed per survey event at a site) on O'ahu was over three times greater than that recorded during similar surveys conducted on Maui or Kaua'i. We create maps that display the distribution of angling and spearfishing effort around each of the three islands. b. Factors that predict fishing “hotspots” around Maui . Fishing effort on Maui was associated with areas with more wave power and less parking availability. There were half as many fishers in areas with parking lots than in areas with parking on the road shoulder only. c. Changes in fishing effort during the COVID-19 pandemic . There was no change in fishing effort on O‘ahu during the first year of the pandemic, but there was a 20% decline in year 2 and a 33% decline in year 3, both in comparison to pre-pandemic levels. Pre-pandemic creel survey data were unavailable for Maui and Kaua‘i, but fishing effort on these islands also declined as the pandemic progressed at similar or greater rates than those observed on O‘ahu. 4) Quantify potential bias in survey methods by experimentally deriving fisher detection probabilities of shore-based and drone-based surveys (Chapter V): a. Shore-based surveys . We conducted roving creel surveys for four months at three locations around Hilo Bay, designed to emulate and estimate the efficacy of DAR standard operating procedures. There was high agreement between paired observers in counting fishers, leading to near-perfect detection probabilities of both anglers (94%) and spearfishers (97%), but relatively low agreement and detection probabilities of other fishers (throw net, ‘opihi picking, etc.) (52%). b. Drone-based surveys . We used an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV; operated by DAR staff) to collect imagery of fishers along the Hilo Bay shoreline. We used still images and video clips (with known fishing activity) to build an online survey that was distributed to DAR and HCFRU personnel, asking them to count and categorize resource users as a snorkeler, spearfisher, angler, or other fisher. Only 40.0% of the responses correctly counted and categorized resource users in the image. Anglers were correctly identified and enumerated in 90.0% of the responses, but the correct response rates of the other three user categories ranged from 67.8% – 79.4%. Snorkelers and anglers tended to be undercounted while spearfishers and other fishers were overcounted. 5) Review the potential for incorporating emerging technologies that will improve, augment, and evolve creel survey data collection, especially for spearfishing (Chapter VI). Within the context of monitoring shore-based noncommercial fishing, we review the use of electronic data entry/processing systems with geospatial and image capabilities, field cameras, drones, smart buoys, citizen science apps, data mining social media, artificial intelligence and machine learning. We highlight several of the challenges and considerations when implementing these technologies into creel surveys and provide a synthesis of options that could be used to better estimate spearfishing. The general conclusion of this assessment is that the DAR roving creel survey program is collecting valuable data that supplement the existing HMRFS efforts. However, there are a number of areas that could be improved to make these efforts a more effective tool for decision-making processes in resource management and conservation: 1) Establishment of clear statewide and island objectives for the Statewide Creel Survey Dataset. Currently, data collection efforts are focused towards addressing a very broad purpose – supplementing the HMRFS data collection efforts. However, the results of the preliminary analyses conducted as part of this project suggest that the data could be used to address other areas of need if these objectives were clearly defined. Further, the design of the creel survey would benefit from greater standardization of survey protocols between islands and an effort to define a) the acceptable margins of error associated with the estimates generated by these data and b) the minimum level of change that the surveys would need to detect to be useful to managers. 2) Centralization of data entry, data quality assessment, and data accessibility. Currently, each DAR office manages data entry, checks the data for errors, and is responsible for managing and storing the data. Instituting a centralized data entry system, particularly an online database that can receive survey data from tablets or smartphones running a standardized data collection application would improve efficiency, reduce data entry errors, and accelerate the availability of data to managers. A substantial amount of time and effort from the project described in this report was devoted to checking the dataset for errors. The development and application of data quality assurance protocols would ensure that the data are reliable and available in a timely fashion to support management decisions. 3) Address lingering questions regarding the efficacy of current survey protocols to capture and characterize the spearfishing component of the noncommercial fishery. The results presented in the report suggest that the current creel survey protocols do a good job detecting spearfishers when present but are not capturing sufficient data about their catch or total effort. There are also questions remaining as to whether the survey times and sites are sufficiently capturing the behavior of spearfishers in Hawai‘i. A more thorough assessment – whether through additional research, alteration of survey design, or review of data by representatives of the spearfishing community – would provide insight on how to use the Statewide Creel Survey Database to inform management of spearfishing. 4) Investigate the integration of technological advancements into the creel survey methods. As priorities and needs are developed and formalized, it would be valuable to consider how various technological advancements might enhance and streamline data collection or open new avenues of inquiry.

Hawaii