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Evaluation of data collected by Guam Division of Aquatic and Wildlife Resources during population establishment and monitoring of ko'ko' (Hypotaenidia owstoni) on Rota, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and wildlife monitoring datasets on Cocos Island and Guam

Efforts to recover the critically endangered ko’ko’ (Guam rail, Hypotaenidia owstoni) through establishing an experimental population on the island of Rota in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands have been ongoing for three decades. The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with the Guam Division of Aquatic and Wildlife Resources and the Government of Guam to evaluate whether objectives for three projects can be met with current protocols. The aim of this report was to evaluate existing data provided on (1) ko’ko’ population monitoring on Rota; (2) ko’ko’ population establishment on Rota; plus (3) evaluation of three wildlife monitoring datasets for ko’ko’ on Cocos Island, endangered pulattat (Mariana common moorhen, Gallinula chloropus guami) on Guam, and introduced ungulate species on Guam. Data sources included playback call surveys, point count surveys, release events and studbook information, telemetry of radio-marked birds, as well as landcover classes, storm events, and Oceanic Niño Index information to relate environmental factors to ko’ko’ persistence. Major findings were that reaching objectives was constrained by limited data availability and quality. Suggestions for future study include developing detailed protocols for surveys and data collection, standardizing training procedures for observers, improving data organization and archiving, using methods like distance sampling that account for imperfect detection, and collecting additional data on nests and prey resources to understand drivers of ko’ko’ density and survival. While the current data provide a preliminary assessment, improved sampling designs and consistent protocols are needed to fully address objectives related to the recovery of the ko’ko’. The report provides a roadmap for enhancing data collection and analysis to support management decisions and reach conservation translocation goals about this endangered species and related projects.

Guam, Mariana Islands

2023-2024 Coastal sage scrub and chaparral community monitoring for western San Diego County

Western San Diego County is dominated by shrublands supporting biologically diverse native plant and animal communities. Widespread urbanization has led to regional habitat loss and fragmentation, and many species in these shrubland communities are rare, threatened, or endangered. Large-scale, multiple-species conservation planning has resulted in a regional preserve system that focuses on these shrubland communities. Several large-scale threats are leading to type conversion from shrub-dominated to non-native invasive annual grass-dominated vegetation. To understand the changes that are occurring to native shrublands, we have developed a vegetation monitoring program with several components at multiple spatial scales, focused on quantifying coastal sage scrub (CSS) and chaparral vegetation community characteristics. Several drivers of change associated with type conversion of native shrubland to non-native annual grassland have been identified by previous research including increasing fire frequency, nitrogen deposition from air pollution, and prolonged and intense drought associated with changing climate. Loss of ecological integrity indices have been proposed as useful measures of the threat of degradation and type conversion of shrublands in San Diego County. For this study, ecological integrity is defined as a system’s ability to maintain species’ relationships and functions comparable to natural habitat in the region. Previous studies have identified the percent cover of invasive non-native annual grasses as a proxy for overall ecological degradation (loss of integrity) that is consistent across native taxonomic groups. Increased cover of non-native grass is associated with lower integrity of the shrubland vegetation community as shrub-associated plant and animal species are replaced by species preferring grassy and disturbed habitats. The objectives of this CSS and chaparral vegetation community monitoring plan are to: 1) Determine the distribution, composition, structure, and integrity of CSS and chaparral vegetation communities on conserved lands in western San Diego County, 2) Identify whether these attributes of the vegetation communities are changing over time, and 3) Evaluate relationships of known drivers of change (threats) and environmental factors in association with changes in vegetation community attributes. The CSS and chaparral vegetation community monitoring program is divided into four components: 1) vegetation mapping, 2) GIS/remote sensing office analysis of landscape-scale data, 3) permanent field plots using Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and field data collections, and 4) animal and target species surveys and rapid assessment protocols. The first component, which is not detailed in this vegetation monitoring plan, aims to map vegetation communities every 10-15 years based on a classification developed for western San Diego County. High resolution aerial imagery will be used to update the 2012 vegetation map and expand it across the entire study area. The second component uses remote sensing models to annually track ecological integrity of shrublands across the study area and will include a map of areas of change and areas of stability over several decades. These landscape-scale integrity classifications will be used to analyze ecological processes, threats, and abiotic factors relative to changes to shrubland ecological integrity over time and space. The third component includes field surveys of 100 permanent plots across areas historically mapped as shrublands. Surveys in the 1930s mapped vegetation types using plot data. By using this historical classification map, we included areas that have already type-converted from shrubland to non-native annual grassland. The plots were split between CSS (55 plots) and chaparral (45 plots) and stratified into four geographical eco-subregions to guarantee coverage over small patches of habitat along the heavily developed coast. Surveys will include the collection of UAS imagery at a very high resolution. Species-level identifications will be made from the imagery based on a plant list compiled of all species detected in the plot during a thorough field survey by botanists, combined with geo-referenced samples of plant species locations. In addition, herbaceous cover will be estimated in the field using nine 1-m diameter circles (one per subplot) to obtain ocular estimates of cover for each plant species within the circle frame. Soil samples will be collected and analyzed for important element compositions. These data will be analyzed to evaluate plot-level ecological integrity based on species composition and cover. Repeated monitoring will allow evaluation of changes in vegetation attributes over time with known drivers or threats and other environmental factors. In addition, analyses will focus on indicator species and various measures of biological diversity for the vegetation communities. Finally, animal species and rare plants will be assessed using either taxa-based rapid assessment protocols or specialized species-specific protocols for rarer species. The purpose of these assessments is to document the status, habitat, and threat covariates of specific species and confirm the species composition and diversity of animal taxonomic groups (e.g., pollinators). Diversity and abundance of animal species at vegetation plots will be used to refine measures and thresholds of ecological integrity. Rapid assessment protocols for animal taxonomic groups can include multiple detection methods such as, camera traps, cover boards, and bird point counts. Pollinators will be monitored at plots using a protocol currently being developed in conjunction with but separately from this plan. Target rare plant species will be monitored using the regional Inspect and Manage (IMG) protocol that measures the status of rare plant occurrences and habitat and threat covariates over time. Species-specific animal survey methods will be refined as these species are prioritized for future monitoring. The goal of this monitoring program is to classify CSS and chaparral vegetation community integrity, identify areas of degradation across western San Diego County, and characterize drivers, and environmental factors associated with loss of ecological integrity. A combination of vegetation mapping, landscape-scale remote sensing, and field plots will be used to address all the aspects of our research questions. Data compiled and collected will be available to conservation partners to help inform future management decisions.

California

Review of techniques to prevent introduction of zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) during native mussel (Unionoidea) conservation activities

Because of the declines in diversity and abundance of native freshwater mussels (superfamily Unionoidea), and the potential decimation of populations of native mussels resulting from the rapid spread of the exotic zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha, management options to eliminate or reduce the threat of the zebra mussel are needed. Relocating native mussels to refugia (artificial and natural) has been proposed to mitigate the threat of zebra mussels to native species. Relocation of native mussels to refugia such as fish hatchery facilities or natural habitats within their historic range. Which are unlikely to be infested by zebra mussels, necessitates that protocols be developed to prevent the inadvertent introduction of zebra mussels. Several recent studies have developed Such protocols, and have assessed their effectiveness on the health and survival of native mussels during subsequent relocation to various refugia. The purpose of this project is to synthesize and evaluate the current protocols and to develop a set of procedures that resource managers and researchers should consider before conducting conservation activities in zebra mussel infested waters. We found that the existing protocols have many common points of concern, such as facility modification and suitability, zebra mussel risk assessment and management procedures, and health and disease management procedures. These conservation protocols may have broad applicability to other situations and locations. A summary and evaluation of the information in these main areas, along with recommended guidelines, are presented in this article.

Journal of Shellfish Research

Wake Atoll vessel movement biosecurity program efficacy

Executive Summary The purpose of this Wake Atoll Vessel Movement Biosecurity Program Efficacy document is to provide the United States Air Force (USAF) with an unbiased review of the current (2015; hereafter referred to as the 2015 Biosecurity Plan) biosecurity plan for the military base Wake Island Airfield (WIA) on Wake Atoll (hereafter Wake). Periodic reviews are an integral step for evaluating plan efficacy and updating plans with new information for improving plan effectiveness. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) acted as an external expert to provide the first unbiased assessment of the program and observe how it was being implemented. The USAF 2015 Wake Island Biosecurity Management Plan goes beyond sea vessel and container biosecurity; however, those aspects were not included in this evaluation. We used several methods for a quality assurance evaluation of the 2015 sea vessel and shipping container biosecurity program specified in the Biosecurity Plan. Our evaluation included real-time observations in Hawai`i and at Wake. We surveyed cargo staging areas and empty shipping containers before supply shipment and the containers, barge, and marina at Wake after shipment. We used various detection tools and techniques (for example, visual encounter surveys, glue boards, chew cards, camera traps, and so on). We carried out an insect mortality experiment trial using one of the required shipping container biosecurity tools (dichlorvos impregnated pest strips). We also included a table-top review of documentation (largely the 2015 Biosecurity Plan) with respect to our observations to provide an assessment of how well the Biosecurity Plan protocols were carried out and how well they serve their intended purpose. We observed biosecurity concerns in each focal area and stage of cargo handling (before and after barge movement) across all surveys of containers, flat racks, break bulk, warehouses, and dock areas. Using visual inspections, we recorded biosecurity concerns for every empty container we inspected before it was to be stuffed with cargo. Most containers had structural integrity issues (such as holes and damaged floorboards) and sanitation concerns, including live animals and plant matter or seeds. About one third of the containers had mold and a few had wet floorboards or standing water. We detected live animals on the break bulk, and flat racks were in poor condition. Next, we inspected cargo staging areas and noted extensive permeability of the building where cargo was staged for the 2018 resupply shipment and the building that had typically been used. We included the adjacent dock area used for staging break bulk, shipping containers and mooring the barge. We detected more than 5,000 individuals of 105 species. We also detected seeds in each location and scattered vegetation in the dock area, including growing in from the area outside separated by a chain link fence. During surveys at Wake, we observed that 100 percent of the shipping containers, including all containers sent with required biosecurity tools, had live animals. The barge had only one unsecured snap trap for intercepting rodents aboard, we saw areas with fairly deep layers of dirt (or soil; we did not examine it to determine its properties), and there was plant matter with seed heads on the barge gangway that could easily be transported onto the barge. There was also only one snap trap station that was improperly placed on the dock. We also observed piled wood and vegetation nearby that could provide refuge to potential stowaway animals escaping. Combined, surveys of the containers, staging areas, barges, and receiving area in Hawai`i and at Wake resulted in detection of more than 9,000 individuals of 131 animal species; nearly 4,000 individuals of 62 species were detected in surveys of containers once they had arrived at Wake. None of the species identified are known to be native to Wake. Our preliminary risk analysis of all species detected included eight species that we scored as high risk of potentially negative effects to biodiversity, infrastructure, or human health should they arrive at Wake and become established. Six of these species were only recorded using tools not clearly required by the Biosecurity Plan or being used to implement the plan. We observed that the required biosecurity tools intended to intercept animals in the cargo staging area did not target the suite nor number of species present. Our analysis also indicated the required biosecurity tools intended to intercept animals in shipping containers were inadequate to handle the volume of organisms that were in the containers. The insect mortality trial experiment showed the pest strips were highly effective for only one of the three species tested, leaving uncertainty about how effective they are across the suite of potential species stowing away in cargo and containers. Base Operating Support (BOS) did not carry out all Biosecurity Plan actions, but we also noted the document uses terminology such as “recommendation” as opposed to “requirement” which may lead contractors to consider those actions as optional. However, USAF provided evidence of BOS training and follow up; this included detailed identification of specific requirements for some of the biosecurity actions that we did not observe being carried out. The 2015 Biosecurity Plan contains critical and useful components that seem to be well carried out. However, we also saw discrepancies, weaknesses, or both across methods and protocols currently used for Wake Atoll biosecurity. We observed shortcomings at each stage of our survey as well as in the plan as written, and we suggest general modifications to the Biosecurity Plan for consideration to potentially strengthen biosecurity overall. Prevention is the most efficient and cost-effective biosecurity measure. Based on our findings, we see possible solutions to improve existing preventative biosecurity efforts and reduce potential incursion at Wake. These potential solutions include creating and implementing the following: Minimum cargo staging area sanitation and permeability standards, Minimum shipping container integrity and sanitation standards, Stand-alone inspection protocols, Inspection checklists, Monitoring protocols, Accountability reporting, Horizon scanning for prioritizing and targeting species of highest concern, Expansion of educational materials and outreach, Schedules for biosecurity plan reviews and updates Management of invasive species enhances capability to protect human health and the environment as well as to advance mission accomplishment. Biosecurity plans are an integral component for addressing invasive species. Periodic evaluation of the efficacy of these plans is useful for identifying elements that are working well and for illuminating those that can be improved. Evaluations encourage consideration of new tools and adaptation of processes to achieve better outcomes and accommodate potential future threats more efficiently and more cost effectively.

Open-File Report

Efficacy of monitoring and empirical predictive modeling at improving public health protection at Chicago beaches

Efforts to improve public health protection in recreational swimming waters have focused on obtaining real-time estimates of water quality. Current monitoring techniques rely on the time-intensive culturing of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) from water samples, but rapidly changing FIB concentrations result in management errors that lead to the public being exposed to high FIB concentrations (type II error) or beaches being closed despite acceptable water quality (type I error). Empirical predictive models may provide a rapid solution, but their effectiveness at improving health protection has not been adequately assessed. We sought to determine if emerging monitoring approaches could effectively reduce risk of illness exposure by minimizing management errors. We examined four monitoring approaches (inactive, current protocol, a single predictive model for all beaches, and individual models for each beach) with increasing refinement at 14 Chicago beaches using historical monitoring and hydrometeorological data and compared management outcomes using different standards for decision-making. Predictability (R 2 ) of FIB concentration improved with model refinement at all beaches but one. Predictive models did not always reduce the number of management errors and therefore the overall illness burden. Use of a Chicago-specific single-sample standard-rather than the default 235 E. coli CFU/100 ml widely used-together with predictive modeling resulted in the greatest number of open beach days without any increase in public health risk. These results emphasize that emerging monitoring approaches such as empirical models are not equally applicable at all beaches, and combining monitoring approaches may expand beach access.

Water Research

The H4IIE cell bioassay as an indicator of dioxin-like chemicals in wildlife and the environment

The H4IIE cell bioassay has proven utility as a screening tool for planar halogenated hydrocarbons (PHHs) and structurally similar chemicals accumulated in organisms from the wild. This bioassay has additional applications in hazard assessment of PHH exposed populations. In this review, the toxicological principles, current protocols, performance criteria, and field applications for the assay are described. The H4IIE cell bioassay has several advantages over the analytical measurement of PHHs in environmental samples, but conclusions from studies can be strengthened when both bioassay and analytical chemistry data are presented together. Often, the bioassay results concur with biological effects in organisms and support direct measures of PHHs. For biomonitoring purposes and prioritization of PHH-contaminated environments, the H4IIE bioassay may be faster and less expensive than analytical measurements. The H4IIE cell bioassay can be used in combination with other biomarkers such as in vivo measurements of CYP1A1 induction to help pinpoint the sources and identities of dioxin-like chemicals. The number of studies that measure H4IIE-derived TCDD-EQs continues to increase, resulting in subtle improvements over time. Further experiments are required to determine if TCDD-EQs derived from mammalian cells are adequate predictors of toxicity to non-mammalian species. The H4IIE cell bioassay has been used in over 300 published studies, and its combination of speed, simplicity, and ability to integrate the effects of complex containment mixtures makes it a valuable addition to hazard assessment and biomonitoring studies.

Critical Reviews in Toxicology

A GT-seq panel for walleye (Sander vitreus) provides important insights for efficient development and implementation of amplicon panels in non-model organisms

Targeted amplicon sequencing methods, such as genotyping-in-thousands by sequencing (GT-seq), facilitate rapid, accurate, and cost-effective analysis of hundreds of genetic loci in thousands of individuals. Development of GT-seq panels is nontrivial, but studies describing trade-offs associated with different steps of GT-seq panel development are rare. Here, we construct a dual-purpose GT-seq panel for walleye ( Sander vitreus ), discuss trade-offs associated with different development and genotyping approaches, and provide suggestions for researchers constructing their own GT-seq panels. Our GT-seq panel was developed using an ascertainment set consisting of restriction site-associated DNA data from 954 individuals sampled from 23 populations in Minnesota and Wisconsin, USA. We conducted simulations to test the utility of all loci for parentage analysis and genetic stock identification and designed 600 primer pairs to maximize joint accuracy for these analyses. We then performed three rounds of primer optimization to remove loci that overamplified and our final panel consisted of 436 loci. We also explored different approaches for DNA extraction, multiplexed polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification, and cleanup steps during the GT-seq process and discovered the following: (i) inexpensive Chelex extractions performed well for genotyping; (ii) the exonuclease I and shrimp alkaline phosphatase (ExoSAP) procedure included in some current protocols did not improve results substantially and was probably unnecessary; and (iii) it was possible to PCR amplify panels separately and combine them prior to adapter ligation. Well-optimized GT-seq panels are valuable resources for conservation genetics and our findings and suggestions should aid in their construction in myriad taxa.

Minnesota, Wisconsin

A reassessment of Chao2 estimates for population monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee (YES) asked the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) to re-assess a technique used in annual population estimation and trend monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). This technique is referred to as the Chao2 approach and estimates the number of females with cubs-of-the-year (hereafter, females with cubs) and, in association with other demographic data, is used by the IGBST to produce annual population estimates. Females with cubs are an easily recognizable population segment, and trends for this reproductive segment of the population are assumed to be representative of trend for the entire population. The overarching objective of the analyses presented in this report was to provide a more accurate representation of the GYE grizzly bear population using the current methodologies in place. Specifically, we addressed two limitations of the current Chao2 approach: 1) underestimation bias associated with a distance criterion used to differentiate annual sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals and 2) limitations of the model-averaging approach to effectively distinguish among potential future population trajectories (decline, stability, and growth). The first issue addressed in this report is the underestimation bias associated with the rule set that Knight et al. (1995) developed to differentiate sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals (i.e., unique family groups). The rule set was originally designed to be conservative by reducing the risk of identifying more females with cubs than actually existed, primarily through use of a distance criterion of 30 km to separate sightings of unique females. This approach resulted in an underestimation bias, and previous research demonstrated that this bias increases with increasing number of females with cubs. Using location data from radio-marked females with cubs, we evaluated alternative distance criteria by simulating scenarios with varying numbers of true females with cubs and sightings. Findings from these analyses demonstrate that bias in estimates of females with cubs can be substantially reduced by changing the 30-km distance criterion in the rule set to 16 km, which produced relatively unbiased estimates. Findings also indicate, however, the importance of adaptability with regard to the distance criteria because of the complex relationships and biases among the various parameters involved in estimation of unique females with cubs. The total number of annual sightings and the true number of females with cubs play particularly important roles. Whereas these analyses remind us that there is no perfect approach to estimating the number of females with cubs from sightings under various scenarios, they provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. The second issue we were tasked to investigate was the potential for improvement of the technique referred to as model-averaging, which serves to smooth relatively high variation in annual estimates. This technique was chosen by YES as the basis for monitoring the Yellowstone grizzly bear population, as described in the 2016 Conservation Strategy. This choice was made in part because the technique has been well documented and population estimates derived from counts of females with cubs are conservative. Using simulations of population trends, we demonstrate why the model-averaging technique currently used cannot distinguish between plausible future trend scenarios. As a suitable alternative to model averaging, we propose the use of generalized additive models (GAMs). Using a suite of simulated trend dynamics relevant to management, we demonstrate GAM performance for tracking trends in females with cubs within the context of the annual monitoring program. We demonstrate the ability to not only document directional changes in population trend but also patterns of stabilization or resiliency after such changes. Furthermore, the proposed monitoring framework provides objective measures useful for early detection of directional changes in trend. The new framework is flexible, allowing retrospective analysis of Chao2-based estimates and future applications to time series of other population metrics, such as vital rates. The aforementioned updates provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. Within the context of current monitoring protocols and effort, and considering the full suite of simulations presented in this report and previous studies, the IGBST plans to incorporate the following changes to the population monitoring protocol: 1) modify the distance criterion, starting with 16 km under current sampling conditions and 2) revise the population monitoring framework using GAMs as the basis for smoothing of annual estimates and detecting trends and changes in trend. Implementation of the 16-km distance criterion combined with use of GAM techniques would affect some of the population metrics (e.g., annual population size and uncertainty, population trend, mortality rates) used to inform management responses. A primary consideration is that the 16-km distance criterion results in total population estimates derived from the Chao2 estimates that are greater than those we have reported in the past. This increase is due to a change in the implementation of the technique and more accurately represents the number of females with cubs in the GYE grizzly bear population. Additionally, interpretation of retrospective trend patterns may change due to the combination of a different distance criterion and enhanced trend monitoring based on the GAM approach we present here. Implementation will require relatively minor changes in the monitoring protocols described in Appendices B and C of the 2016 Conservation Strategy. Finally, we note that the IGBST has ongoing investigations into the merits of an Integrated Population Model (IPM), for which annual Chao2-based estimates are important input data. The IGBST plans to continue those investigations using the 16-km distance criterion to derive Chao2 estimates.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming

Laboratory maintenance and culture of Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the fungus that causes bat white-nose syndrome

Pseudogymnoascus destructans is a fungal pathogen that causes white‐nose syndrome, an emerging and fatal disease of North American bats that has led to unprecedented population declines. As a psychrophile, P. destructans is adapted to infect bats during winter hibernation, when host metabolic activity and core body temperature are greatly reduced. The ability to maintain and cultivate isolates of P. destructans in the laboratory is necessary for conducting research with this fungus. This article describes protocols for culturing P. destructans from bat wing skin and soil, for cryopreserving the fungus, and for preparing liquid suspensions for laboratory experimentation.

Current Protocols

A comparison of nested quadrat and point-line intercept sampling methods for fire effects monitoring in shortgrass prairie

Within the National Park Service (NPS) and other federal land-managing agencies, there has been widespread application of the use of standardized fire-effects monitoring protocols. While standardization is often desirable, researchers and managers have come to recognize that 1 method does not work in all habitats with regard to application and efficiency. In 1999, in response to a wildfire that burned over 2428 ha of prairie habitat within Alibates Flint Quarries National Monument (ALFL) and Lake Meredith National Recreation Area (LAMR), Texas, long-term monitoring using a newer nested quadrat frequency/importance score method was implemented. In 2001, a 2-y study was initiated to compare the time and information-gathering efficacy of the nested quadrat method with the current NPS protocol used for monitoring fire effects within grassland systems. Both sampling methods were performed within burned and unburned mesa-top prairie habitats. No statistically significant differences were detected for total species richness between the 2 methods. However, the point-line intercept transects required significantly more time to sample compared to the nested quadrats. Within shortgrass prairie habitats the nested quadrat method appears to be a more efficient and effective sampling strategy than traditional point-line intercept methods.

Conference Paper

Comparison of four modeling tools for the prediction of potential distribution for non-indigenous weeds in the United States

This study compares four models for predicting the potential distribution of non-indigenous weed species in the conterminous U.S. The comparison focused on evaluating modeling tools and protocols as currently used for weed risk assessment or for predicting the potential distribution of invasive weeds. We used six weed species (three highly invasive and three less invasive non-indigenous species) that have been established in the U.S. for more than 75 years. The experiment involved providing non-U. S. location data to users familiar with one of the four evaluated techniques, who then developed predictive models that were applied to the United States without knowing the identity of the species or its U.S. distribution. We compared a simple GIS climate matching technique known as Proto3, a simple climate matching tool CLIMEX Match Climates, the correlative model MaxEnt, and a process model known as the Thornley Transport Resistance (TTR) model. Two experienced users ran each modeling tool except TTR, which had one user. Models were trained with global species distribution data excluding any U.S. data, and then were evaluated using the current known U.S. distribution. The influence of weed species identity and modeling tool on prevalence and sensitivity effects was compared using a generalized linear mixed model. Each modeling tool itself had a low statistical significance, while weed species alone accounted for 69.1 and 48.5% of the variance for prevalence and sensitivity, respectively. These results suggest that simple modeling tools might perform as well as complex ones in the case of predicting potential distribution for a weed not yet present in the United States. Considerations of model accuracy should also be balanced with those of reproducibility and ease of use. More important than the choice of modeling tool is the construction of robust protocols and testing both new and experienced users under blind test conditions that approximate operational conditions.

Biological Invasions

Evaluation of listener-based anuran surveys with automated audio recording devices

Volunteer-based audio surveys are used to document long-term trends in anuran community composition and abundance. Current sampling protocols, however, are not region- or species-specific and may not detect relatively rare or audibly cryptic species. We used automated audio recording devices to record calling anurans during 2006–2009 at wetlands in Maine, USA. We identified species calling, chorus intensity, time of day, and environmental variables when each species was calling and developed logistic and generalized mixed models to determine the time interval and environmental variables that optimize detection of each species during peak calling periods. We detected eight of nine anurans documented in Maine. Individual recordings selected from the sampling period (0.5 h past sunset to 0100 h) described in the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) detected fewer species than were detected in recordings from 30 min past sunset until sunrise. Time of maximum detection of presence and full chorusing for three species (green frogs, mink frogs, pickerel frogs) occurred after the NAAMP sampling end time (0100 h). The NAAMP protocol’s sampling period may result in omissions and misclassifications of chorus sizes for certain species. These potential errors should be considered when interpreting trends generated from standardized anuran audio surveys.

Wetlands

Patch-occupancy models indicate human activity as major determinant of forest elephant Loxodonta cyclotis seasonal distribution in an industrial corridor in Gabon

The importance of human activity and ecological features in influencing African forest elephant ranging behaviour was investigated in the Rabi-Ndogo corridor of the Gamba Complex of Protected Areas in southwest Gabon. Locations in a wide geographical area with a range of environmental variables were selected for patch-occupancy surveys using elephant dung to assess seasonal presence and absence of elephants. Patch-occupancy procedures allowed for covariate modelling evaluating hypotheses for both occupancy in relation to human activity and ecological features, and detection probability in relation to vegetation density. The best fitting models for old and fresh dung data sets indicate that (1) detection probability for elephant dung is negatively related to the relative density of the vegetation, and (2) human activity, such as presence and infrastructure, are more closely associated with elephant distribution patterns than are ecological features, such as the presence of wetlands and preferred fresh fruit. Our findings emphasize the sensitivity of elephants to human disturbance, in this case infrastructure development associated with gas and oil production. Patch-occupancy methodology offers a viable alternative to current transect protocols for monitoring programs with multiple covariates.

Biological Conservation

Designing long-term fish community assessments in connecting channels: Lessons from the Saint Marys River

Long-term surveys are useful in understanding trends in connecting channel fish communities; a gill net assessment in the Saint Marys River performed periodically since 1975 is the most comprehensive connecting channels sampling program within the Laurentian Great Lakes. We assessed efficiency of that survey, with intent to inform development of assessments at other connecting channels. We evaluated trends in community composition, effort versus estimates of species richness, ability to detect abundance changes for four species, and effects of subsampling yellow perch catches on size and age-structure metrics. Efficiency analysis revealed low power to detect changes in species abundance, whereas reduced effort could be considered to index species richness. Subsampling simulations indicated that subsampling would have allowed reliable estimates of yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) population structure, while greatly reducing the number of fish that were assigned ages. Analyses of statistical power and efficiency of current sampling protocols are useful for managers collecting and using these types of data as well as for the development of new monitoring programs. Our approach provides insight into whether survey goals and objectives were being attained and can help evaluate ability of surveys to answer novel questions that arise as management strategies are refined.

Saint Marys River

Spatial proximity moderates genotype uncertainty in genetic tagging studies

Accelerating declines of an increasing number of animal populations worldwide necessitate methods to reliably and efficiently estimate demographic parameters such as population density and trajectory. Standard methods for estimating demographic parameters from noninvasive genetic samples are inefficient because lower-quality samples cannot be used, and they assume individuals are identified without error. We introduce the genotype spatial partial identity model (gSPIM), which integrates a genetic classification model with a spatial population model to combine both spatial and genetic information, thus reducing genotype uncertainty and increasing the precision of demographic parameter estimates. We apply this model to data from a study of fishers ( Pekania pennanti ) in which 37% of hair samples were originally discarded because of uncertainty in individual identity. The gSPIM density estimate using all collected samples was 25% more precise than the original density estimate, and the model identified and corrected three errors in the original individual identity assignments. A simulation study demonstrated that our model increased the accuracy and precision of density estimates 63 and 42%, respectively, using three replicated assignments (e.g., PCRs for microsatellites) per genetic sample. Further, the simulations showed that the gSPIM model parameters are identifiable with only one replicated assignment per sample and that accuracy and precision are relatively insensitive to the number of replicated assignments for high-quality samples. Current genotyping protocols devote the majority of resources to replicating and confirming high-quality samples, but when using the gSPIM, genotyping protocols could be more efficient by devoting more resources to low-quality samples.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Development of a multimetric index for assessing the biological condition of the Ohio River

The use of fish communities to assess environmental quality is common for streams, but a standard methodology for large rivers is as yet largely undeveloped. We developed an index to assess the condition of fish assemblages along 1,580 km of the Ohio River. Representative samples of fish assemblages were collected from 709 Ohio River reaches, including 318 "least-impacted" sites, from 1991 to 2001 by means of standardized nighttime boat-electrofishing techniques. We evaluated 55 candidate metrics based on attributes of fish assemblage structure and function to derive a multimetric index of river health. We examined the spatial (by river kilometer) and temporal variability of these metrics and assessed their responsiveness to anthropogenic disturbances, namely, effluents, turbidity, and highly embedded substrates. The resulting Ohio River Fish Index (ORFIn) comprises 13 metrics selected because they responded predictably to measures of human disturbance or reflected desirable features of the Ohio River. We retained two metrics (the number of intolerant species and the number of sucker species [family Catostomidae]) from Karr's original index of biotic integrity. Six metrics were modified from indices developed for the upper Ohio River (the number of native species; number of great-river species; number of centrarchid species; the number of deformities, eroded fins and barbels, lesions, and tumors; percent individuals as simple lithophils; and percent individuals as tolerant species). We also incorporated three trophic metrics (the percent of individuals as detritivores, invertivores, and piscivores), one metric based on catch per unit effort, and one metric based on the percent of individuals as nonindigenous fish species. The ORFIn declined significantly where anthropogenic effects on substrate and water quality were prevalent and was significantly lower in the first 500 m below point source discharges than at least-impacted sites nearby. Although additional research on the temporal stability of the metrics and index will likely enhance the reliability of the ORFIn, its incorporation into Ohio River assessments still represents an improvement over current physicochemical protocols.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society

Assessment and monitoring of recreation impacts and resource conditions on mountain summits: Examples from the Northern Forest, USA

Mountain summits present a unique challenge to manage sustainably: they are ecologically important and, in many circumstances, under high demand for recreation and tourism activities. This article presents recent advances in the assessment of resource conditions and visitor disturbance in mountain summit environments, by drawing on examples from a multiyear, interdisciplinary study of summits in the northeastern United States. Primary impact issues as a consequence of visitor use, such as informal trail formation, vegetation disturbance, and soil loss, were addressed via the adaption of protocols from recreation ecology studies to summit environments. In addition, new methodologies were developed that provide measurement sensitivity to change previously unavailable through standard recreation monitoring protocols. Although currently limited in application to the northeastern US summit environments, the methods presented show promise for widespread application wherever summits are in demand for visitor activities.

Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, New York, Massachus

Selected laboratory evaluations of the whole-water sample-splitting capabilities of a prototype fourteen-liter Teflon churn splitter

A prototype 14-L Teflon? churn splitter was evaluated for whole-water sample-splitting capabilities over a range of sediment concentratons and grain sizes as well as for potential chemical contamination from both organic and inorganic constituents. These evaluations represent a 'best-case' scenario because they were performed in the controlled environment of a laboratory, and used monomineralic silica sand slurries of known concentration made up in deionized water. Further, all splitting was performed by a single operator, and all the requisite concentration analyses were performed by a single laboratory. The prototype Teflon? churn splitter did not appear to supply significant concentrations of either organic or inorganic contaminants at current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Quality Laboratory detection and reporting limits when test samples were prepared using current USGS protocols. As with the polyethylene equivalent of the prototype Teflon? churn, the maximum usable whole-water suspended sediment concentration for the prototype churn appears to lie between 1,000 and 10,000 milligrams per liter (mg/L). Further, the maximum grain-size limit appears to lie between 125- and 250-microns (m). Tests to determine the efficacy of the valve baffle indicate that it must be retained to facilitate representative whole-water subsampling.

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