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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Vulnerability of mangrove resources to sea-level rise on Sanibel Island, Florida, USA

Accelerating sea-level rise (SLR) is poised to reshape coastal environments over the coming decades, providing a challenge to land managers who need actionable information. Mangroves have an innate ability to keep pace with some SLR but may drown under the higher rates projected by the end of the century. Understanding local mangrove resilience to SLR requires understanding of historic and contemporary accretion rates, productivity, and forest elevations relative to tidal inundation. We applied the WARMER3 modeling framework to assess future mangrove resilience to SLR and blue carbon storage across the “Ding” Darling National Wildlife Refuge on Sanibel Island in southwest Florida, USA. We found that Sanibel mangroves are sensitive to the SLR scenario, with projected losses ranging from 19 to 70% by 2100. Across SLR scenarios, projected areal extent was similar until about 2035 and then diverge, coincident with projected acceleration in the rate of SLR. Threshold analysis indicates found that Sanibel mangroves are likely to submerge when rates exceed 6.5 mm yr −1 . Currently, the mangrove forest of our study domain holds an estimated 214,000 Mg of carbon but is likely to decrease as mangroves convert to open water in the second half of this century. For “Ding” Darling, these site-specific projections identify when losses in mangrove resources are most likely, providing a basis to prioritize local management actions and conservation resources.

Florida↗
USGS2011

Seismologists meet “Down Under”

Planned presentations on hazard assessment and research weren't the only topics for discussion at the 27th General Assembly of the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior (IASPEI), held from January 10–21 at the University of Victoria in Wellington, New Zealand. There was a more timely one unfolding: California's Northridge earthquake. When conference participants awoke to news of the earthquake on January 18, they scrambled to action to gather the latest data available. Just 12 hours after the event, they held a general discussion about the earthquake.

Wellington↗
USGS2007

USGS: Science to understand and forecast change in coastal ecosystems

The multidisciplinary approach of the US Geological Survey (USGS), a principal science agency of the US Department of the Interior (DOI), to address the complex and cumulative impacts of human activities and natural events on the US coastal ecosystems has been considered remarkable for understanding and forecasting the changes. The USGS helps explain geologic, hydrologic, and biologic systems and their connectivity across landscapes and seascapes along the coastline. The USGS coastal science programs effectively address science and information to other scientists, managers, policy makers, and the public. The USGS provides scientific expertise, capabilities, and services to collaborative federal, regional, and state-led efforts, which are in line with the goals of Ocean Action Plan (OAP) and Ocean Research Priorities Plan (ORPP). The organization is a leader in understanding terrestrial and marine environmental hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, and landslides and assessing and forecasting coastal impacts using various specialized visualization techniques.

Sea Technology↗
USGS2024

Facilitating psychological safety in science and research teams

Science is increasingly dependent on large teams working well together. Co-creating knowledge in this way, usually across disciplines and institutions, requires team members to feel comfortable taking interpersonal risks with each other; in other words, to have what is known as “psychological safety”. Although the importance of psychological safety for team functioning is increasingly well understood, the behaviours necessary to foster psychological safety are harder to define. We suggest that science facilitation expertise offers a path forward for scientific teams – particularly through the integration of outside facilitators or team members taking on the facilitation role – to identify dynamics that can promote or curtail psychological safety, interpret those dynamics accurately, and intervene appropriately to shift a group towards greater psychological safety. We describe how specific practices can support this cycle of observation, interpretation, and action to promote psychological safety across the team process and at key moments. We conclude with recommendations for how research teams might embed these facilitation practices into their work, and how institutions can drive more widespread recognition and development of the expertise needed to cultivate psychologically safe scientific teams.

Humanities and Social Sciences Communications↗
USGS2006

Science to support adaptive habitat management: Overton Bottoms North Unit, Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge, Missouri

Extensive efforts are underway along the Lower Missouri River to rehabilitate ecosystem functions in the channel and flood plain. Considerable uncertainty inevitably accompanies ecosystem restoration efforts, indicating the benefits of an adaptive management approach in which management actions are treated as experiments, and results provide information to feed back into the management process. The Overton Bottoms North Unit of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge is a part of the Missouri River Fish and Wildlife Habitat Mitigation Project. The dominant management action at the Overton Bottoms North Unit has been excavation of a side-channel chute to increase hydrologic connectivity and to enhance shallow, slow current-velocity habitat. The side-channel chute also promises to increase hydrologic gradients, and may serve to alter patterns of wetland inundation and vegetation community growth in undesired ways. The U.S. Geological Survey's Central Region Integrated Studies Program (CRISP) undertook interdisciplinary research at the Overton Bottoms North Unit in 2003 to address key areas of scientific uncertainty that were highly relevant to ongoing adaptive management of the site, and to the design of similar rehabilitation projects on the Lower Missouri River. This volume presents chapters documenting the surficial geologic, topographic, surface-water, and ground-water framework of the Overton Bottoms North Unit. Retrospective analysis of vegetation community trends over the last 10 years is used to evaluate vegetation responses to reconnection of the Overton Bottoms North Unit to the river channel. Quasi-experimental analysis of cottonwood growth rate variation along hydrologic gradients is used to evaluate sensitivity of terrestrial vegetation to development of aquatic habitats. The integrated, landscape-specific understanding derived from these studies illustrates the value of scientific information in design and management of rehabilitation projects.

Missouri↗
USGS2018

Chesapeake Bay's water quality condition has been recovering: Insights from a multimetric indicator assessment of thirty years of tidal monitoring data

To protect the aquatic living resources of Chesapeake Bay, the Chesapeake Bay Program partnership has developed guidance for state water quality standards, which include ambient water quality criteria to protect designated uses (DUs), and associated assessment procedures for dissolved oxygen (DO), water clarity/underwater bay grasses, and chlorophyll-a. For measuring progress toward meeting the respective states' water quality standards, a multimetric attainment indicator approach was developed to estimate combined standards attainment. We applied this approach to three decades of monitoring data of DO, water clarity/underwater bay grasses, and chlorophyll-a data on annually updated moving 3-year periods to track the progress in all 92 management segments of tidal waters in Chesapeake Bay. In 2014–2016, 40% of tidal water segment-DU-criterion combinations in the Bay (n = 291) are estimated to meet thresholds for attainment of their water quality criteria. This index score marks the best 3-year status in the entire record. Since 1985–1987, the indicator has followed a nonlinear trajectory, consistent with impacts from extreme weather events and subsequent recoveries. Over the period of record (1985–2016), the indicator exhibited a positive and statistically significant trend ( p < 0.05), indicating that the Bay has been recovering since 1985. Patterns of attainment of individual DUs are variable, but improvements in open water DO, deep channel DO, and water clarity/submerged aquatic vegetation have combined to drive the improvement in the Baywide indicator in 2014–2016 relative to its long-term median. Finally, the improvement in estimated Baywide attainment was statistically linked to the decline of total nitrogen, indicating responsiveness of attainment status to the reduction of nutrient load through various management actions since at least the 1980s.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗
USGS2016

Spatial patterns of native freshwater mussels in the Upper Mississippi River

Multiple physical and biological factors structure freshwater mussel communities in large rivers, and their distributions have been described as clumped or patchy. However, few surveys of mussel populations have been conducted over areas large enough and at resolutions fine enough to quantify spatial patterns in their distribution. We used global and local indicators of spatial autocorrelation (i.e., Moran&rsquo;s I) to quantify spatial patterns of adult and juvenile (&le;5 y of age) freshwater mussels across multiple scales based on survey data from 4 reaches (navigation pools 3, 5, 6, and 18) of the Upper Mississippi River, USA. Native mussel densities were sampled at a resolution of &sim;300 m and across distances ranging from 21 to 37 km, making these some of the most spatially extensive surveys conducted in a large river. Patch density and the degree and scale of patchiness varied by river reach, age group, and the scale of analysis. In all 4 pools, some patches of adults overlapped patches of juveniles, suggesting spatial and temporal persistence of adequate habitat. In pools 3 and 5, patches of juveniles were found where there were few adults, suggesting recent emergence of positive structuring mechanisms. Last, in pools 3, 5, and 6, some patches of adults were found where there were few juveniles, suggesting that negative structuring mechanisms may have replaced positive ones, leading to a lack of localized recruitment. Our results suggest that: 1) the detection of patches of freshwater mussels requires a multiscaled approach, 2) insights into the spatial and temporal dynamics of structuring mechanisms can be gained by conducting independent analyses of adults and juveniles, and 3) maps of patch distributions can be used to guide restoration and management actions and identify areas where mussels are most likely to influence ecosystem function.

Upper Misssissippi River↗
USGS2018

Science for a risky world—A U.S. Geological Survey plan for risk research and applications

Executive Summary Natural hazards—including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, landslides, hurricanes, droughts, floods, wildfires, geomagnetic storms, and pandemics—can wreak havoc on human communities, the economy, and natural resources for years following an initial event. Hazards can claim lives and cause billions of dollars in damage to homes and infrastructure as well as lost or compromised economic activity and threats to national security. They also can have adverse environmental, social, economic, and health effects that extend well beyond the immediate area, sometimes with global implications. Changes in population growth, climate, and urbanization may exacerbate hazard impacts. Because of the potential severity of a single hazard event, reducing risk—the potential loss of societally important assets caused by these hazards—is a high priority for everyone, including policy makers, community members, emergency managers, resource managers, utility operators, business owners, and planners. These stakeholders demand usable, user-centric information to support decisions for planning a resilient future and for responding to and recovering from unanticipated events in more adaptable and cost-effective ways. Meeting this demand requires maximizing the use of environmental observations; hazards science; and research on communications, social stressors, and human behavior to deliver risk information in forms that are accessible by decision makers and the public alike. To achieve this, scientists and stakeholders must collaborate to match community needs with actionable insights, research, products, and tools, using advances in technology to improve information discovery and delivery.

Circular↗
USGS1993

Managing biological diversity

Biological diversity is the variety of life and accompanying ecological processes (Off. Technol. Assess. 1987, Wilcove and Samson 1987, Keystone 1991). Conservation of biological diversity is a major environmental issue (Wilson 1988, Counc. Environ. Quality 1991). The health and future of the earth's ecological systems (Lubchenco et al. 1991), global climate change (Botkin 1990), and an ever-increasing rate in loss of species, communities, and ecological systems (Myers 1990) are among issues drawing biological diversity to the mainstream of conservation worldwide (Int. Union Conserv. Nat. and Nat. Resour. [IUCN] et al. 1991). The legal mandate for conserving biological diversity is now in place (Carlson 1988, Doremus 1991). More than 19 federal laws govern the use of biological resources in the United States (Rein 1991). The proposed National Biological Diversity Conservation and Environmental Research Act (H.R. 585 and S.58) notes the need for a national biological diversity policy, would create a national center for biological diversity research, and recommends a federal interagency strategy for ecosystem conservation. There are, however, hard choices ahead for the conservation of biological diversity, and biologists are grappling with how to set priorities in research and management (Roberts 1988). We sense disillusion among field biologists and managers relative to how to operationally approach the seemingly overwhelming charge of conserving biological diversity. Biologists also need to respond to critics like Hunt (1991) who suggest a tree farm has more biological diversity than an equal area of old-growth forest. At present, science has played only a minor role in the conservation of biological diversity (Weston 1992) with no unified approach available to evaluate strategies and programs that address the quality and quantity of biological diversity (Murphy 1990, Erwin 1992). Although actions to conserve biological diversity need to be clearly defined by viewing issues across biological, spatial, and temporal scales (Knopf and Smith 1992), natural resource managers find much conflicting information in the literature on strategies and programs for the conservation of biological diversity (Ehrlich 1992). Moreover, recommendations provided in much of the published information available for planning or decisions not only can be debated but may prove counterproductive if implemented. Current operational efforts beg for clearer focus on fundamental concepts central to daily decisions that impact native biological diversity. Recognizing that many biologists would provide different council and at the risk of oversimplification, we offer the following 4 topical issues as fundamental guidance to wise conservation action. These recommendations are based on our collective experiences working within conservation agencies since our original, collaborative essay (Samson and Knopf 1982). They are offered as initial, rather than authoritative, steps to better align research and management decisions with what we perceive as the critical issues in conserving biological diversity at the landscape and ecosystem levels of resolution.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2014

ShakeAlert—An earthquake early warning system for the United States west coast

Earthquake early warning systems use earthquake science and the technology of monitoring systems to alert devices and people when shaking waves generated by an earthquake are expected to arrive at their location. The seconds to minutes of advance warning can allow people and systems to take actions to protect life and property from destructive shaking. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with several partners, has been working to develop an early warning system for the United States. ShakeAlert, a system currently under development, is designed to cover the West Coast States of California, Oregon, and Washington.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2023

Annotated bibliography of scientific research on Gunnison sage-grouse published from January 2005 to September 2022

Integrating recent scientific knowledge into management decisions supports effective natural resource management and can lead to better resource outcomes. However, finding and accessing scientific knowledge can be time consuming and costly. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey is creating a series of annotated bibliographies on topics of management concern for western lands. Previously published reports introduced a methodology for preparing annotated bibliographies to facilitate the integration of recent, peer-reviewed science into resource management decisions. Therefore, relevant text from those efforts is reproduced here to frame the presentation. Centrocercus minimus (Gunnison sage-grouse; hereafter GUSG) has been a focus of scientific investigation since the early 2000s. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listed GUSG as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 2014 because of declining populations and increasing habitat loss. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Land Management, and Colorado Parks and Wildlife have sought to increase the conservation of this species by adapting management and recovery plans to reduce threats and increase population resiliency. GUSG are studied less than the closely related Centrocercus urophasianus (greater sage-grouse); however, research efforts have recently increased to understand the life history, genetics, and habitat suitability of this sagebrush-obligate species. We compiled and summarized peer-reviewed journal articles, data products, and formal technical reports (such as U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service General Technical Reports and U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Reports) on GUSG, published between January 2005 and September 2022. We first systematically searched three reference databases and three government databases using the following search phrases: “Gunnison sage-grouse” or “lesser sage-grouse” or “Gunnison grouse” or “Gunnison sage grouse” or “lesser sage grouse” or “ Centrocercus minimus .” We refined the initial list of products by removing (1) duplicates, (2) publications that were not published as research, data products, or scientific review articles in peer-reviewed journals or as formal technical reports, and (3) products that did not have GUSG as a research focus or products that did not present new data or findings about GUSG. We summarized each product using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and identified the management topics (for example, population estimates or targets, habitat, and management efforts) addressed by each product. We also noted which publications included new geospatial data. The review process for this annotated bibliography included two initial internal colleague reviews of each summary, requesting input on each summary from an author of the original publication, and a formal peer review. Our initial searches resulted in 80 total products, of which 63 met our criteria for inclusion of which 53 were products that had not been summarized before. Across products summarized in the annotated bibliography, broad-scale habitat characteristics; population estimates or targets; behavior or demographics; and genetics were the most commonly addressed management topics. The bibliographies are available on the Science for Resource Managers tool ( https://apps.usgs.gov/science-for-resource-managers ) and are searchable by topic, location, and year, and the search tool includes links to each original publication. The studies compiled and summarized in this annotated bibliography may inform planning and management actions that seek to maintain and restore sagebrush landscapes and GUSG populations across the GUSG range.

Colorado↗
USGS2017

The planetary data system

In the early 1980s, the Space Science Board (SSB) of the National Research Council was concerned about the poor and inconsistent treatment of scientific information returned from NASA’s space science missions. The SSB formed a panel [The Committee on Data Management and Computation (CODMAC)] to assess the situation and make recommendations to NASA for improvements. The CODMAC panel issued a report [1,2] that led to a number of actions, one of which was the convening of a Planetary Data Workshop in November 1983 [3]. The key findings of that workshop were that (1) important datasets were being irretrievably lost, and (2) the use of planetary data by the wider community is constrained by inaccessibility and a lack of commonality in format and documentation. The report further stated, “Most participants felt the present system (of data archiving and access) is inadequate and immediate changes are necessary to insure retention of and access to these and future datasets.”

Lunar and Planetary Information Bulletin↗
USGS2020

Lessons from a post-eruption landscape

From March to May 1980, magma rose high into Mount St. Helens (MSH), swelling and—as it turned out—destabilizing its north flank. Scientists knew the volcano had been highly active at times over the past 40,000 years, but the mountain, located amid the Cascade Range in southwestern Washington, had been mostly quiet since the mid-19th century. The collapse of the north flank on 18 May shattered that quiet, triggering a cascade of events that left resounding impressions not only on those who witnessed and studied them but also on the surrounding landscape [Lipman and Mullineaux, 1981; Waitt, 2015]. The eruption of MSH also provided unparalleled opportunities for advancing several disciplines [e.g., Shore et al., 1986; Newhall, 2000; Franklin and MacMahon, 2000]. Although not as conspicuously as in volcanology, the eruption and its aftermath led to an intensification of research investigating biophysical impacts of eruptions and subsequent responses [e.g., Dale et al., 2005; Pierson and Major, 2014; Crisafulli and Dale, 2018]. Long-term research on the biophysical responses at MSH has provided important new insights, challenged long-standing ideas, and provided many societal benefits. The fortieth anniversary of the eruption this year offers a timely opportunity to reflect on these insights and influences. This long-term vantage is important because sustained, place-based studies following landscape disturbances are rare; because the MSH eruption spurred the greatest depth and breadth of multidisciplinary studies of biophysical responses to landscape disturbance; and because these responses created some of the most significant societal challenges to emerge after the eruption. We summarize key biophysical disturbances and responses, highlight salient insights, and suggest actions that can extend the usefulness of these insights to volcanically vulnerable communities worldwide.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Diet of juvenile burbot and insight on gape limitation

Throughout much of their distribution, Burbot (Lota lota ) populations are declining or have been extirpated. Burbot in the Kootenai River, Idaho represent one such imperiled population. In an effort to restore Burbot in the Kootenai River, managers have turned to conservation aquaculture. However, no appreciable increase in natural recruitment has been observed in the system. The lack of natural recruitment is believed to be partly due to a deficiency of high-quality prey. As a result, we sought to i) describe the diet of juvenile Burbot, ii) evaluate the influence of Burbot mouth gape on diet and iii) estimate prey availability at release locations. Burbot were stocked into two earthen ponds at the Boundary Creek Wildlife Management Area (BCWMA) and sampled weekly to evaluate diet. Zooplankton were sampled weekly from each pond and from release locations of hatchery-reared Burbot (i.e., Kootenai River, Goat River, Boundary Creek, Deep Creek) to quantify prey availability. Over the course of the study (~3 months), Burbot primarily fed on Cyclopoida. Burbot never appeared to be gape limited and exhibited little variability in the size of zooplankton ingested. Zooplankton densities at stocking locations were relatively low in comparison to BCWMA ponds. Low zooplankton densities at release sites indicate that alternative management actions may need to be considered to enhance Burbot recruitment in the Kootenai River drainage.

Intermountain Journal of Sciences↗
USGS2020

Using information from global climate models to inform policymaking—The role of the U.S. Geological Survey

This report provides an overview of model-based climate science in a risk management context. In addition, it summarizes how the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will continue to follow best scientific practices and when and how the results of this research will be delivered to the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) and other stakeholders to inform policymaking. Climate change is a risk management challenge for society because of the uncertain consequences for natural and human systems across decades to centuries. Climate-related science activities within the USGS emphasize research on adaptation to climate change. This research helps inform adaptive management processes and planning activities within other DOI bureaus and by DOI stakeholders. Global climate models are sophisticated numerical representations of the Earth’s climate system. Research groups from around the world regularly participate in a coordinated effort to produce a suite of climate models. This global effort provides a test bed to assess model performance and analyze projections of future change under various prescribed climate scenarios. These climate scenarios describe a plausible future outcome associated with a specific set of societal actions. Because scenarios are developed in a risk-based framework with a high degree of uncertainty about future societal developments, they are usually not assigned a formal likelihood of occurrence. Examining a range of projected climate outcomes based on multiple scenarios is a recommended best practice because it allows decision makers to better consider both short- and long-term risks and opportunities. As part of its routine science practices, the USGS regularly reviews the state of knowledge of climate science, develops and maintains best practices in using global climate models to project climate change impacts, and provides data and interpretations of potential impacts to the DOI and other stakeholders. Management and policy decisions within the DOI will reflect different tolerances for risk, which has implications for what type of information should be considered and how that information should be used. It is suggested that a followup document be produced that would describe in more detail how these management decisions with differing risk tolerances can be made effectively and consistently in light of an uncertain future.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2017

Geomagnetically induced currents: Science, engineering, and applications readiness

This paper is the primary deliverable of the very first NASA Living With a Star Institute Working Group, Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) Working Group. The paper provides a broad overview of the current status and future challenges pertaining to the science, engineering, and applications of the GIC problem. Science is understood here as the basic space and Earth sciences research that allows improved understanding and physics-based modeling of the physical processes behind GIC. Engineering, in turn, is understood here as the “impact” aspect of GIC. Applications are understood as the models, tools, and activities that can provide actionable information to entities such as power systems operators for mitigating the effects of GIC and government agencies for managing any potential consequences from GIC impact to critical infrastructure. Applications can be considered the ultimate goal of our GIC work. In assessing the status of the field, we quantify the readiness of various applications in the mitigation context. We use the Applications Readiness Level (ARL) concept to carry out the quantification.

Space Weather↗
USGS2018

Research to improve ShakeAlert earthquake early warning products and their utility

Earthquake early warning (EEW) is the rapid detection of an earthquake and issuance of an alert or notification to people and vulnerable systems likely to experience potentially damaging ground shaking. The level of ground shaking that is considered damaging is defined by the specific application; for example, manufacturing equipment may experience damage at a lower intensity ground shaking than would cause damage to a building. Along the West Coast of the United States, the warning times for ground shaking could range as high as tens of seconds for moderate levels of ground shaking, or potentially longer, if a lower ground-shaking threshold is used to issue alerts. However, it is not always possible to provide advance warning of ground shaking, particularly for locations close to an earthquake that are most likely to experience very strong ground shaking. EEW alerts may be useful to individuals who can use a few seconds to move to a safe zone and to electromechanical systems that can take automatic actions to reduce damage and injuries. An EEW system, ShakeAlert, has been under development in the United States since 2006. Federal and State governments, as well as the private sector, are now investing in the ShakeAlert prototype system that will, when completed, become an operational public system for the West Coast of the United States. While the current prototype is delivering alerts to test users, improvements to the accuracy, timeliness, and utility of the alerts are needed. For this reason, it is essential that the ShakeAlert system be continuously improved through targeted research, involving not only the current ShakeAlert partner organizations, but also the broader scientific, engineering, and emergencyresponse communities. To this end, this report describes the opportunities for improvement that can be addressed through research and development over the next 5 years. Our recommendations are organized into four areas: (1) understand EEW capabilities and user needs, (2) make alerts as fast and accurate as possible, (3) ensure reliability when it counts, and (4) explore the use of new instrumentation. The first challenge is to understand EEW capabilities and user needs. EEW must deliver actionable information to people and to automated systems to mitigate short- and longterm impacts of damaging ground shaking, so development of EEW must be motivated by the needs of users. Within this challenge, we must study the technical capabilities and limitations of EEW in general, and the ShakeAlert system specifically. This includes development of performance metrics that assess the timeliness and accuracy of alerts to understand the value and utility of the ShakeAlert EEW product(s) for various user groups, including different industry sectors, emergency-management agencies, and the public. Research is needed to define the alerting choices that maximize the utility of the system for users and to determine what the available communication pathways are for providing timely alert information. Additionally, we engage users to assess how alerts will be used by different sectors to mitigate losses and to inform EEW product design. Further, social-science research is needed to develop alert messaging, including what relevant prior and follow-up information are required, to ensure effective use of alerts. The second challenge is to make alerts as fast and as accurate as possible. The timeliness and accuracy of an EEW alert is important because it will set in motion a series of actions and downstream products. An EEW alert will trigger notification across emergency-alert systems and across multiple communication channels to populations in impacted regions. The EEW alert region may grow as the earthquake fault-rupture length increases, and the EEW system’s characterization of it, evolves. We must continue research into new or improved seismic and geodetic waveform-processing methods necessary to rapidly characterize the expected ground shaking and associated uncertainties. It is important to thoroughly evaluate whether new methods improve alerts through more accurate ground-motion estimates and (or) reduced latencies (that is, longer warning times). New methods could include tracking the extent of a large rupture in real time (known as finite-fault algorithms) and ground-motionbased EEW algorithms. Additionally, ground motion predictions could be optimized for each earthquake as the earthquake fault rupture progresses by using, for example, event terms to shift ground-motion curves for more (or less) energetic ruptures. The third challenge is to ensure reliability when it counts. This challenge requires us to explore approaches that assess the expected performance of ShakeAlert across the range of earthquake magnitudes, locations, and depths that may occur within the alerting region. Large, damaging earthquakes and their associated aftershock sequences matter most for hazard and for EEW, but these large-earthquake sequences occur infrequently. We expect ShakeAlert to respond robustly to these large-earthquake sequences despite potentially long periods of relative seismic quiescence in the intervening years, and in spite of inevitable communication challenges that arise during and after a large earthquake. We must develop methods to utilize the broadest available datasets to test EEW performance, including ground-motion data recorded in other parts of the world. The observational period for large, damaging earthquakes in any particular region has been short in comparison to estimated large-earthquake recurrence times. Ground-motion records for very large, damaging western United States events and major aftershock sequences do not yet exist, nor do data exist for all potential sources of noise and spurious signals that ShakeAlert must be “tuned” to reject. In addition, robust synthetic data could provide the flexibility to test a wider range of earthquake magnitude, tectonic-setting, and noise scenarios than are covered by existing observational data. Synthetic ground-motion data must be thoroughly vetted against records of smaller magnitude earthquakes to ensure that they accurately capture both the onset and the amplitude of the ground shaking. The final challenge is to explore the use of new instrumentation. The development of EEW around the world to date has focused on the use of high-quality, scientific-grade seismic and geodetic instrumentation. The use of additional types of instrumentation or information may also improve EEW products by filling gaps in sensor coverage in countries that already have dense seismic networks or enable EEW in countries without such networks. We must keep up with these developments and continuously assess their value in supplementing existing EEW systems, such as ShakeAlert, or enabling EEW where such systems do not exist. Such developments include low-cost instrumentation with microelectromechanical system (MEMS) sensors and global positioning system (GPS)/global navigation satellite system (GNSS) antennas embedded in low-cost consumer electronics, sea-floor seismometers, geodetic instrumentation deployed along the Cascadia and Alaska megathrust margins of western North America, and borehole strainmeters that are already deployed across the region.

Open-File Report↗