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USGS2002

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2001

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2001 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. In addition to our normal monitoring, we completed an array of studies addressing the potential impacts of winter recreation on denning grizzly bears. This research was in response to a lawsuit filed against the Gallatin National Forest and subsequent need to develop a biological assessment addressing effects of snowmobile use on grizzly bears (Chemy 2001). Research results were also used by the National Park Service for a biological assessment and winter use plan (U.S. Department of the Interior 2001). The Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) was able to use existing data collected from collared bears to address several issues and data needs for both agencies. Denning chronology (Haroldson et al. 2002), denning areas (Podruzny et al. 2002), and grizzly distribution (Schwartz et al. 2002) were all addressed. Information from these studies was presented at the International Association for Bear Research and Management (IBA) in Jackson Hole, Wyoming in 2001, and all 3 manuscripts have been officially accepted for publication in the journal Ursus . Abstracts are attached to this report (Appendices A, B. and C). Additionally, members of the study team participated in a workshop held by the National Park Service to develop monitoring protocols addressing the impacts of snowmobiles on wildlife (Graves and Reams 2001). The study team has also been working on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of-the-year (COY). These counts are used to establisha minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS) 1993). Efforts by the Study Team to calculate more statistically sound estimates of population size have been underway for sometime. Eberhardt and Knight (1996) applied a Peterson-type capturemark-recapture estimator to unduplicated counts, and Boyce et al. (1999) recommended a maximum likelihood method. These methods assumed equal sightability of families, which was unrealistic for the Yellowstone population. Consequently, Boyce et al. (2001) recommended using a negative binomial distribution but found that they obtained reasonable results only when the coefficient of variation among sightings was assumed to be constant overtime. This assumption is also difficult to justify. Recent work by the study team (Keating et al. 2002) evaluated the application of 7 nonparametric estimators to assess their performance in determining the number of females with COY in a given year. This work identified 2 estimators that performed well using Monte Carlo simulations over a range of sampling conditions deemed plausible for the Yellowstone population: Chao's estimator (Chao 1984) and the sample coverage estimator (Chao and Lee 1992, Lee and Chao 1994). This work was presented at the IBA meeting in Jackson and the manuscript has been accepted in the journal Ursus . An abstract of this work is attached to this annual report (Appendix D). We are currently refining the application of these techniques to expand the predicted number of females with COY into a total population estimate. We anticipate completion of that work in 2002 or 2003.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Flood-inundation maps for 14.8 miles of Little and Big Papillion Creeks in Omaha, Nebraska, 2023

Digital flood-inundation map libraries for two reaches that constitute 14.8 miles of Little and Big Papillion Creeks in Omaha, Nebraska, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resource District. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Program website at https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/flood-inundation-mapping-fim-program , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at Little Papillion Creek at Irvington, Nebr. (USGS station 06610750), Little Papillion Creek at Ak-Sar-Ben at Omaha, Nebr. (USGS station 06610765), and Big Papillion Creek at Q Street at Omaha, Nebr. (USGS station 06610770) streamgages. Near-real-time stages at these streamgages may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System database at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or from the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at https://water.weather.gov/ahps/ . Flood profiles were computed for two different reaches that constitute 14.8 miles of stream length in the study area by using hydraulic models. The models were calibrated by adjusting roughness coefficients to best represent the current (2022) stage-streamflow relation at the streamgages within the study reach. The hydraulic models were then used to compute water-surface profiles at 1-foot stage intervals for selected stage ranges to represent various flooding scenarios at the streamgages in each reach. The simulated water-surface profiles then were combined with a digital elevation model using a geographic information system, which had a 10-foot grid spacing to delineate the flooding extents and water depths for each stage. The availability of these flood-inundation maps, along with information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgages, can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities and post flood recovery efforts.

Nebraska↗

USGS2020

Using paleo-archives to safeguard biodiversity under climate change

Strategies for 21st-century environmental management and conservation under global change require a strong understanding of the biological mechanisms that mediate responses to climate- and human-driven change to successfully mitigate range contractions, extinctions, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Biodiversity responses to past rapid warming events can be followed in situ and over extended periods, using cross-disciplinary approaches that provide cost-effective and scalable information for species’ conservation and the maintenance of resilient ecosystems in many bioregions. Beyond the intrinsic knowledge gain such integrative research will increasingly provide the context, tools, and relevant case studies to assist in mitigating climate-driven biodiversity losses in the 21st century and beyond.

Science↗

USGS2007

Effect of storms on barrier island dynamics, Core Banks, Cape Lookout National Seashore, North Carolina, 1960-2001

The effect of storms on long-term dynamics of barrier islands was evaluated on Core Banks, a series of barrier islands that extend from Cape Lookout to Okracoke Inlet in the Cape Lookout National Seashore, North Carolina. Shoreline and elevation changes were determined by comparing 77 profiles and associated reference markers established by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) on Core Banks from June 1960 to July 1962 to a follow-up survey by Godfrey and Godfrey (G&G) in 1971 and a survey by the Department of Geology at East Carolina University (ECU) in 2001, in which 57 of the original 77 profiles were located. Evaluation of the baseline data associated with the USACE study supplies an important record of barrier island response to two specific storm events—Hurricane Donna in September 1960 and the Ash Wednesday extra-tropical cyclone in March 1962. The 1962 USACE survey was followed by 9 years characterized by no major storms; this low-energy period was captured by the G&G survey in 1971. The G&G survey was followed by 22 years characterized by occasional small to moderate storms. Starting in 1993, however, and continuing through 1999, the North Carolina coast experienced a major increase in storm activity, with seven major hurricanes impacting Core Banks. Both the USACE 1960–1962 and G&G 1962–1971 surveys produced short-term data sets that reflected very different sets of weather conditions. The ECU 2001 survey data were then compared with the USACE 1960 survey data to develop a long-term (41 years) data set for shoreline erosion on Core Banks. Those resulting long-term data were compared with the long-term (52 years) data sets by the North Carolina Division of Coastal Management (NCDCM) from 1940–1992 and 1946–1998; a strong positive correlation and very similar rates of average annual erosion resulted. However, the ECU and NCDCM long-term data sets did not correlate with either of the USACE and G&G short-term survey data and had very different average annual erosion rates. The average annual long-term rate of shoreline erosion for all of Core Banks and for both the ECU 1960–2001 and the NCDCM 1946–1998 surveys was -5 feet per year (ft/yr). These long-term rates of shoreline recession are in strong contrast with the short-term, storm-dominated rates of shoreline erosion for all of Core Banks developed by the USACE 1960–1961 and USACE 1961–1962 surveys, which have average annual erosion rates of -40 ft/yr and -26 ft/yr, respectively, and range from -226 feet (ft) to +153 ft. The combined short-term, storm-dominated shoreline erosion rate for the USACE surveys (1960–1962) was -36 ft/yr. In contrast, the average annual short-term, non-stormy period G&G 1962–1971 survey demonstrated shoreline accretion for all of Core Banks with an average annual rate of +12 ft/yr. In general, North Core Banks has higher erosion and accretion rates than South Core Banks. In the 1961 survey, the USACE installed 231 reference markers (RM-0 is closest to the ocean and RM-2 is farthest from the ocean) along the 77 profiles, as well as 33 reference markers labeled RM-4, RM-6, and RM-8 in the wider portions of the islands. The G&G survey recovered a total of 141 reference markers (61 percent), and the ECU survey recovered a total of 83 reference markers (36 percent) of the RM-0, RM-1, and RM-2 markers. The average ground elevation measured by the USACE in 1961 was RM-0 = +5.8 ft, RM-1 = +5.2 ft, and RM-2 = +4.8 ft. The G&G 1970 survey measured average ground elevations of RM-0 = +6.7 ft, RM-1 = +6.4 ft, and RM-2 = +6.1 ft, and the average ground elevation measured by ECU in 2001 was RM-0 = +10.1 ft, RM-1 = +9.1 ft, and RM-2 = +8.5 ft. The latter numbers represent approximately an overall 72-percent increase in island elevation from 1961 to 2001. Based on aerial photographic time-slice analyses, it is hypothesized that this increase in island elevation occurred during the post-1962 period with storm overwash systematically raising the island elevation through time, which in turn led to decreased numbers of overwash events. The latter processes and responses in turn led to a substantial increase in vegetative growth on the barrier island, as well as submerged aquatic vegetation on the back-barrier sand shoals. Integration of the USACE, G&G, ECU, and NCDCM shoreline erosion data for Core Banks shows several important points about shoreline recession. (1) The ECU and NCDCM data sets demonstrate that there is an ongoing net, long-term, but small-scale shoreline recession associated with Core Banks; (2) the USACE short-term data sets demonstrate that processes associated with individual storm events or sets of events produce extremely large-scale changes that include both erosion and accretion; (3) the short-term, non-stormy period data set of G&G demonstrates that if given enough time between storm events, barriers can rebuild to their pre-storm period conditions; and (4) the post-storm response generally tends to approach the pre-storm location, but rarely reaches it before the next storm or stormy period sets in. The result is the net long-term change documented by both the ECU 1960–2001 and NCDCM 1946–1998 Core Banks data sets that resulted in erosion rates ranging from 0 to -30 ft/yr with net annual average recession rates of -5 ft/yr. Analysis and comparison of these data sets supply important information for understanding the dynamics and responses of barrier island systems through time. In addition, the results of the present study on Core Banks supply essential process-response information that can be used to design and implement management plans for the Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras National Seashores and for other seashores in the U.S. National Park Service system.

North Carolina↗

USGS2012

A spatial analysis of cultural ecosystem service valuation by regional stakeholders in Florida: a coastal application of the social values for ecosystem services (SolVES) tool

Livelihoods and lifestyles of people throughout the world depend on essential goods and services provided by marine and coastal ecosystems. However, as societal demand increases and available ocean and coastal space diminish, better methods are needed to spatially and temporally allocate ocean and coastal activities such as shipping, energy production, tourism, and fishing. While economic valuation is an important mechanism for doing so, cultural ecosystem services often do not lend themselves to this method. Researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey are working collaboratively with the Florida Sea Grant College Program to map nonmonetary values of cultural ecosystem services for a pilot area (Sarasota Bay) in the Gulf of Mexico. The research seeks to close knowledge gaps about the attitudes and perceptions, or nonmonetary values, held by coastal residents toward cultural ecosystem services, and to adapt related, terrestrial-based research methods to a coastal setting. A critical goal is to integrate research results with coastal and marine spatial planning applications, thus making them relevant to coastal planners and managers in their daily efforts to sustainably manage coastal resources. Using information about the attitudes and preferences of people toward places and uses in the landscape, collected from value and preference surveys, the USGS SolVES 2.0 tool will provide quantitative models to relate social values, or perceived nonmonetary values, assigned to locations by survey respondents with the underlying environmental characteristics of those same locations. Project results will increase scientific and geographic knowledge of how Sarasota Bay residents value their area’s cultural ecosystem services.

Florida↗

USGS2013

Flood-inundation maps for the East Fork White River at Columbus, Indiana

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 5.4-mile reach of the East Fork White River at Columbus, Indiana, from where the Flatrock and Driftwood Rivers combine to make up East Fork White River to just upstream of the confluence of Clifty Creek with the East Fork White River, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation, depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at USGS streamgage 03364000, East Fork White River at Columbus, Indiana. Current conditions at the USGS streamgage may be obtained on the Internet from the USGS National Water Information System (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/uv/?site_no=03364000&agency_cd=USGS&). The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts flood hydrographs for the East Fork White River at Columbus, Indiana at their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system Website (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/), that may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relation at USGS streamgage 03364000, East Fork White River at Columbus, Indiana. The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to determine 15 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to approximately the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data), having a 0.37-ft vertical accuracy and a 1.02 ft horizontal accuracy), in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage at Columbus, Indiana, and forecasted stream stages from the NWS will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Indiana↗

USGS2022

Exposure of cultural resources to 21st-century climate change: Towards a risk management plan

Anthropogenic climate change during the 21st century presents a significant challenge to the protection of cultural resources (CRs) on federal lands that encompass ∼ 28% of the U.S. In particular, CRs on this land base may be adversely affected by a wide range of climate-change hazards, including damage by sea-level rise, enhanced deterioration by increasing temperature and precipitation, and destruction by more-frequent and severe wildfire. Most current measures to manage the impacts of hazards on CRs use vulnerability assessments, but because these require that all CRs be treated as having an equal chance of being affected by climate-change hazards (i.e., equal exposure) across large landscapes, the cost and resources required for such analyses are overwhelming to land management agencies. Projections of changes in many hazards, however, show that the probability of hazard occurrence will be unevenly distributed on the landscape. Incorporating this information into a risk assessment thus allows CR managers to prioritize their efforts on assessing impacts to CRs in those areas where the probability of the hazard is greatest, thus increasing efficiency. We provide several heuristic examples of implementing the first part of a CR risk assessment by using 21st-century projections of several hazards most likely to adversely affect CRs on nine National Forests (NFs) managed by the U.S. Forest Service in northern Idaho and Montana. Overlaying the projected distribution of hazards on these NFs with the distribution of CRs identifies CR exposure that, with information on their vulnerability, is required to determine risk. Additional policy and field studies will be needed to determine how to prioritize those CRs that are most at risk according to their significance as well as identify how impacts can be reduced and managed through adaptation planning and implementation. Adaptation will follow the iterative risk management process particularly by improving projection resolution. Finer scale, process-based modeling informed by the highest priority CRs would also provide a means to assess various adaptation options that might change the estimated risk and increase the odds of CRs being as little affected as possible.

Idaho, Montana↗

USGS2014

Flood-inundation maps for the White River near Edwardsport, Indiana

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 3.3-mile reach of the White River near Edwardsport, (Ind.), were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at USGS streamgage 03360730, White River near Edwardsport, Ind. Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/, which also forecasts flood hydrographs at this site (site EDWI3.) Flood profiles were computed for the White River near Edwardsport reach by means of a one-dimensional step-back-water model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relations at USGS streamgage 03360730, White River near Edwardsport, Ind., and high-water marks from the flood of April 2013. The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to determine 19 water-surface profiles for flood stages at approximately 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to the highest stage of the current stage-discharge rating curve. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage 03360730 White River near Edwardsport, Ind., and forecasted stream stages from the National Weather Service, provides emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Indiana↗

USGS2014

Replacement cost valuation of Northern Pintail ( Anas acuta ) subsistence harvest in Arctic and sub-Arctic North America

Migratory species provide economically beneficial ecosystem services to people throughout their range, yet often, information is lacking about the magnitude and spatial distribution of these benefits at regional scales. We conducted a case study for Northern Pintails (hereafter pintail) in which we quantified regional and sub-regional economic values of subsistence harvest to indigenous communities in Arctic and sub-Arctic North America. As a first step, we used the replacement cost method to quantify the cost of replacing pintail subsistence harvest with the most similar commercially available protein (chicken). For an estimated annual subsistence harvest of ˜15,000 pintail, our mean estimate of the total replacement cost was ˜$63,000 yr −1 ($2010 USD), with sub-regional values ranging from \$263 yr −1 to \$21,930 yr −1 . Our results provide an order-of-magnitude, conservative estimate of one component of the regional ecosystem-service values of pintails, providing perspective on how spatially explicit values can inform migratory species conservation.

Human Dimensions of Wildlife: An International Jou↗

USGS2018

Machine learning for ecosystem services

Recent developments in machine learning have expanded data-driven modelling (DDM) capabilities, allowing artificial intelligence to infer the behaviour of a system by computing and exploiting correlations between observed variables within it. Machine learning algorithms may enable the use of increasingly available ‘big data’ and assist applying ecosystem service models across scales, analysing and predicting the flows of these services to disaggregated beneficiaries. We use the Weka and ARIES software to produce two examples of DDM: firewood use in South Africa and biodiversity value in Sicily, respectively. Our South African example demonstrates that DDM (64–91% accuracy) can identify the areas where firewood use is within the top quartile with comparable accuracy as conventional modelling techniques (54–77% accuracy). The Sicilian example highlights how DDM can be made more accessible to decision makers, who show both capacity and willingness to engage with uncertainty information. Uncertainty estimates, produced as part of the DDM process, allow decision makers to determine what level of uncertainty is acceptable to them and to use their own expertise for potentially contentious decisions. We conclude that DDM has a clear role to play when modelling ecosystem services, helping produce interdisciplinary models and holistic solutions to complex socio-ecological issues.

Ecosystem Services↗

USGS2015

Potential nitrogen critical loads for northern Great Plains grassland vegetation

The National Park Service is concerned that increasing atmospheric nitrogen deposition caused by fossil fuel combustion and agricultural activities could adversely affect the northern Great Plains (NGP) ecosystems in its trust. The critical load concept facilitates communication between scientists and policy makers or land managers by translating the complex effects of air pollution on ecosystems into concrete numbers that can be used to inform air quality targets. A critical load is the exposure level below which significant harmful effects on sensitive elements of the environment do not occur. A recent review of the literature suggested that the nitrogen critical load for Great Plains vegetation is 10-25 kg N/ha/yr. For comparison, current atmospheric nitrogen deposition in NGP National Park Service (NPS) units ranges from ~4 kg N/ha/yr in the west to ~13 kg N/ha/yr in the east. The suggested critical load, however, was derived from studies far outside of the NGP, and from experiments investigating nitrogen loads substantially higher than current atmospheric deposition in the region. Therefore, to better determine the nitrogen critical load for sensitive elements in NGP parks, we conducted a four-year field experiment in three northern Great Plains vegetation types at Badlands and Wind Cave National Parks. The vegetation types were chosen because of their importance in NGP parks, their expected sensitivity to nitrogen addition, and to span a range of natural fertility. In the experiment, we added nitrogen at rates ranging from below current atmospheric deposition (2.5 kg N/ha/yr) to far above those levels but commensurate with earlier experiments (100 kg N/ha/yr). We measured the response of a variety of vegetation and soil characteristics shown to be sensitive to nitrogen addition in other studies, including plant biomass production, plant tissue nitrogen concentration, plant species richness and composition, non-native species abundance, and soil inorganic nitrogen concentration. To determine critical loads for the NGP plant communities in our experiment, we followed the NPS’s precautionary principle in assuming that it is better to be cautious than to let harm occur to the environment. Thus, the critical loads we derived are the lowest nitrogen level that any of our data suggest has a measureable effect on any of the response variables measured. Badlands sparse vegetation, a low-productivity plant community that is an important part of the scenery at Badlands National Park and provides habitat for rare plant species, was the most sensitive of the three vegetation types. More aspects of this vegetation type responded to nitrogen addition, and at lower levels, than at the other two sites. Our data suggest that nitrogen deposition levels of 4- 6 kg N/ha/yr may increase biomass production, and consequently the amount of dead plant material on the ground in this plant community. Slightly higher critical loads are suggested for the two more productive vegetation types more characteristic of most NGP grasslands: 6-10 kg N/ha/yr for biomass production, grass tissue nitrogen concentration, or non-native species (especially annual brome grasses) cover. Highly variable results among years, as well as inconsistent responses to an increasing dose of nitrogen within sites, complicated the derivation of critical loads in this experiment, however. A less precautionary approach to deriving critical loads yielded higher values of 10-38 kg N/ha/yr.

Northern Great Plains↗

USGS1994

White sturgeon spawning and rearing habitat in the lower Columbia River

Estimates of spawning habitat for white sturgeons Acipenser transmontanus in the tailraces of the four dams on the lower 470 km of the Columbia River were obtained by using the Physical Habitat Simulation System of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's Instream Flow Incremental Methodology to identify areas with suitable water depths, water velocities, and substrates. Rearing habitat throughout the lower Columbia River was assessed by using a geographic information system to identify areas with suitable water depths and substrates. The lowering of spring and summer river discharges from hydropower system operation reduces the availability of spawning habitat for white sturgeons. The four dam tailraces in the study area differ in the amount and quality of spawning habitat available at various discharges; the differences are due to channel morphology. The three impoundments and the free-flowing Columbia River downstream from Bonneville Dam provide extensive areas that are physically suitable for rearing young-of-the-year and juvenile white sturgeons.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2024

The impact of future changes in climate on breeding waterfowl pairs in the US Prairie Pothole Region

Millions of small (< 10 ha) waterbodies embedded in grassland and agroecosystems in midcontinental North America provide breeding habitat to an estimated 50–80% of North America’s migratory ducks. Tens of millions of dollars are invested annually to conserve and enhance upland and wetland habitats for breeding ducks by prioritizing locations predicted to have high densities of breeding pairs under average precipitation conditions. An implicit assumption of this approach is that the distribution of breeding habitat remains relatively static. Climate change is an identified risk to this strategy. To assess this assumption and plan for potential forthcoming conditions, we estimated changes in potential breeding duck pairs under different climate scenarios by combining results of 1) a mechanistic hydrology model that simulates ecosystem processes for a subset of wetlands distributed across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region (USPPR); 2) four downscaled climate model projections at mid- and late-century time horizons; and 3) U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service multi-decadal datasets and predictive breeding waterfowl pair statistical models. We conducted virtual and in-person informational sessions with partners to inform them on the best practices of using downscaled global circulation models and approaches for climate scenario planning. This close coordination led to a joint presentation at a monthly North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center seminar. We are also co-developing simulated wetland- waterfowl responses under different climate futures for wetlands. Information from these robust predictions of waterfowl habitat and settling patterns in this region provides land-management agencies insights in prioritizing current conservation actions given uncertainty. In addition, understanding how many breeding pairs the USPPR might support in coming decades will likely influence overall breeding population sizes and sustainable harvest objectives across North America.

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dak↗

USGS2007

Earth science and public health: Proceedings of the Second National Conference on USGS Health-Related Research

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is to serve the Nation by providing reliable scientific information to describe and understand the earth; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources; and enhance and protect our quality of life. As the Nation?s largest water, earth, and biological science and civilian mapping agency, the USGS can play a significant role in providing scientific knowledge and information that will improve our understanding of the relations of environment and wildlife to human health and disease. USGS human health-related research is unique in the Federal government because it brings together a broad spectrum of natural science expertise and information, including extensive data collection and monitoring on varied landscapes and ecosystems across the Nation. USGS can provide a great service to the public health community by synthesizing the scientific information and knowledge on our natural and living resources that influence human health, and by bringing this science to the public health community in a manner that is most useful. Partnerships with health scientists and managers are essential to the success of these efforts. USGS scientists already are working closely with the public health community to pursue rigorous inquiries into the connections between natural science and public health. Partnering agencies include the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Agency for Toxic Substances Disease Registry, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Food and Drug Administration, Mine Safety and Health Administration, National Cancer Institute, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, U.S. Public Health Service, and the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases. Collaborations between public health scientists and earth scientists can lead to improved solutions for existing and emerging environmental health problems. This report summarizes the presentations and discussions held at the Second National Conference on USGS Health-Related Research, held at the USGS national headquarters in Reston, Virginia. The report presents 68 abstracts of technical presentations made at the conference and summaries of six topical breakout sessions. The abstracts cover a broad range of issues and demonstrate connections between human health and the quality and condition of our environment and wildlife. The summaries of the topical breakout sessions present ideas for advancing interdisciplinary science in areas of earth science and human health.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2009

Long-duration drought variability and impacts on ecosystem services: A case study from Glacier National Park, Montana

Instrumental climate records suggest that summer precipitation and winter snowpack in Glacier National Park (Glacier NP), Montana, vary significantly over decadal to multidecadal time scales. Because instrumental records for the region are limited to the twentieth century, knowledge of the range of variability associated with these moisture anomalies and their impacts on ecosystems and physical processes are limited. The authors developed a reconstruction of summer (June–August) moisture variability spanning a.d. 1540–2000 from a multispecies network of tree-ring chronologies in Glacier NP. Decadal-scale drought and pluvial regimes were defined as any event lasting 10 yr or greater, and the significance of each potential regime was assessed using intervention analysis. Intervention analysis prevents single intervening years of average or opposing moisture conditions from ending what was otherwise a sustained moisture regime. The reconstruction shows numerous decadal-scale shifts between persistent drought and wet events prior to the instrumental period (before a.d. 1900). Notable wet events include a series of three long-duration, high-magnitude pluvial regimes spanning the end of the Little Ice Age ( a.d. 1770–1840). Though the late-nineteenth century was marked by a series of >10 yr droughts, the single most severe dry event occurred in the early-twentieth century ( a.d. 1917–41). These decadal-scale dry and wet events, in conjunction with periods of high and low snowpack, have served as a driver of ecosystem processes such as forest fires and glacial dynamics in the Glacier NP region. Using a suite of paleoproxy reconstructions and information from previous studies examining the relationship between climate variability and natural processes, the authors explore how such persistent moisture anomalies affect the delivery of vital goods and services provided by Glacier NP and surrounding areas. These analyses show that regional water resources and tourism are particularly vulnerable to persistent moisture anomalies in the Glacier NP area. Many of these same decadal-scale wet and dry events were also seen among a wider network of hydroclimatic reconstructions along a north–south transect of the Rocky Mountains. Such natural climate variability can, in turn, have enormous impacts on the sustainable provision of natural resources over wide areas. Overall, these results highlight the susceptibility of goods and services provided by protected areas like Glacier NP to natural climate variability, and show that this susceptibility will likely be compounded by the effects of future human-induced climate change.

Montana↗

USGS2014

Using natural range of variation to set decision thresholds: a case study for great plains grasslands

Natural range of variation (NRV) may be used to establish decision thresholds or action assessment points when ecological thresholds are either unknown or do not exist for attributes of interest in a managed ecosystem. The process for estimating NRV involves identifying spatial and temporal scales that adequately capture the heterogeneity of the ecosystem; compiling data for the attributes of interest via study of historic records, analysis and interpretation of proxy records, modeling, space-for-time substitutions, or analysis of long-term monitoring data; and quantifying the NRV from those data. At least 19 National Park Service (NPS) units in North America’s Great Plains are monitoring plant species richness and evenness as indicators of vegetation integrity in native grasslands, but little information on natural, temporal variability of these indicators is available. In this case study, we use six long-term vegetation monitoring datasets to quantify the temporal variability of these attributes in reference conditions for a variety of Great Plains grassland types, and then illustrate the implications of using different NRVs based on these quantities for setting management decision thresholds. Temporal variability of richness (as measured by the coefficient of variation, CV) is fairly consistent across the wide variety of conditions occurring in Colorado shortgrass prairie to Minnesota tallgrass sand savanna (CV 0.20–0.45) and generally less than that of production at the same sites. Temporal variability of evenness spans a greater range of CV than richness, and it is greater than that of production in some sites but less in other sites. This natural temporal variability may mask undesirable changes in Great Plains grasslands vegetation. Consequently, we suggest that managers consider using a relatively narrow NRV (interquartile range of all richness or evenness values observed in reference conditions) for designating a surveillance threshold, at which greater attention to the situation would be paid, and a broader NRV for designating management thresholds, at which action would be instigated.

Book chapter↗

USGS1997

Strategic plan for the National Mapping Divison of the U.S. Geological Survey

The National Mapping Division (NMD) has developed this comprehensive strategic plan to chart its course over the next decade. To meet the challenge of the future, the NMD is changing its program emphasis, methods of responding to customer need and business practices. The NMD Strategic Plan identifies the new direction for the Division through a series of goals and actions for managers to use in formulating plans, establishing program emphasis, and determining resource needs and allocations into the next century. The Plan refines the NMD mission on the basis of several key issues that are expected to face the Division in the next decade. Th first of these is the continuing advances in technology and telecommunications. Related to this is the growth in the use of geographic information systems (GIS) and the demand for data to use in GIS's. Also, a trend exists toward decreasing cost of both the data and the systems, leading to even more demand for and use of data and technology by more users. Another is a changing customer base and increasing demand for NMD products and services. Finally, the financial resource available to the NMD are anticipated to remain relatively static. The Plan assumes that a much greater reliance on partnerships with other government agencies and the private sector for production activities will be permanent. It calls for significantly greater emphasis on the inherently governmental information management responsibilities and on geographic research to support the Division's mission. Multipartner consortia and shared funding agreements will constitute the basis for meeting most mapping needs in the future, with the NMD appropriation focused on map revision in areas of importance to the Federal Government. Mapping Centers will be encouraged to increase partnership agreements to meet mission requirements. The Division will continue to constrain employment, targeting new hiring to specific skills needed to support the revised mission in areas such as quality assurance, data standards development and maintenance, contract management, and information management. Retraining opportunities for current employees will be a high priority. The Bureau Strategic Plan was reviewed carefully to assure that the NMD Strategic Plan would be consistent with it. The Division planning team built on the conclusion of the Bureau Plan regarding the political, economic, societal, and global force that will affect our program in the future. The NMD Strategic Plan also embraces all of the core competencies and business activities.

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USGS2011

A spatial exploration of informal trail networks within Great Falls Park, VA

Informal (visitor-created) trails represent a threat to the natural resources of protected natural areas around the globe. These trails can remove vegetation, displace wildlife, alter hydrology, alter habitat, spread invasive species, and fragment landscapes. This study examines informal and formal trails within Great Falls Park, VA, a sub-unit of the George Washington Memorial Parkway, managed by the U.S. National Park Service. This study sought to answer three specific questions: 1) Are the physical characteristics and topographic alignments of informal trails significantly different from formal trails, 2) Can landscape fragmentation metrics be used to summarize the relative impacts of formal and informal trail networks on a protected natural area? and 3) What can we learn from examining the spatial distribution of the informal trails within protected natural areas? Statistical comparisons between formal and informal trails in this park indicate that informal trails have less sustainable topographic alignments than their formal counterparts. Spatial summaries of the lineal and areal extent and fragmentation associated with the trail networks by park management zones compare park management goals to the assessed attributes. Hot spot analyses highlight areas of high trail density within the park and findings provide insights regarding potential causes for development of dense informal trail networks.

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