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Geologic map of the Guinevere Planitia quadrangle (V–30), Venus

This 1:5,000,000-scale geologic map of the Guinevere Planitia quadrangle divides the region into 15 geologic material units, defined using Magellan synthetic aperture radar (12.6-centimeter-wavelength radar system; 75 meters per pixel) datasets and including upland terrain units (2.4 percent of the surface area), plains materials units (59 percent), flow materials associated with named and unnamed eruptive centers (37.2 percent), small volcanic edifices, and impact crater materials (1.4 percent). Upland terrain units consist of tessera and lineated upland material, plains materials consist of Guinevere regional plains and Guinevere lineated and mottled plains, and flow materials consist of lobate flow material and plains-forming flow material. Specific lobate flows associated with Atanua Mons, Tuli Mons, Var Mons, and Uilata Fluctus are mapped separately. Other mapped units are impact crater material and small volcanic edifice. In addition to geologic units, we mapped linear features that show patterns of deformation or flow across the quadrangle. These consist of faults, wrinkle ridges, broad arches, channels, troughs, and flow direction indicators. The map region also contains several small volcanic features: shields, depressions, and craters. These, in combination with the plains, large volcanoes, and coronae, show the pervasive influence of volcanism across Venusian lowlands. The rims of nine identified impact features are delineated; large bright and dark haloes, which in some cases are associated with individual impact craters, are mapped as surficial mantling deposits. We documented spatial relationships using the stratigraphic and cross-cutting relationships of the quadrangle’s geologic units and features to provide a synthesis of the region’s geologic history. The upland terrain of the quadrangle indicates intense tectonic deformation and uplift. It is exposed as embayed remnants, typically within the plains, and represents the oldest geologic materials locally and across the region. Guinevere plains and the plains-forming flow unit appear to be assemblages of volcanic flows from multiple sources, including distinct coronae and corona-like structures. The temporal evolution of Guinevere lineated and mottled plains was likely protracted, with continued formation of small volcanic edifices over a long period. The morphologic and radar brightness characteristics of volcanoes in the region indicate their growth may have involved (1) multiple large-scale eruptive centers with recognizable spatial and temporal sequences, (2) extensive lava flow fields with a multitude of flows producing complex, overlapping patterns, and (3) numerous small volcanic edifices, including shields, domes, and cones. Although geologic patterns common to other regions of Venus are evident in the Guinevere Planitia quadrangle, local relative age relationships are inconsistent or unclear, preventing robust stratigraphic correlation. The mapping results do, however, indicate complicated local sequences of volcanic and tectonic activity.

Scientific Investigations Map

A geospatial analysis of water-quality threats from orphan wells in principal and secondary aquifers of the United States

Throughout the history of oil and gas production in the United States, millions of wells have been drilled for exploration and energy production. Hundreds of thousands of unplugged wells are no longer actively producing and are currently under orphan status, with no responsible party obligated for plugging. Orphan wells can pose threats to water resources by providing pathways for contaminants such as hydrocarbons and brines to migrate into water-supply aquifers. In this study, we investigate the potential threats to groundwater resources posed by orphan wells at the national scale. Water-quality data is extremely sparse in relation to orphan wells nationally and may not be suitable for identifying contamination from oil and gas development. We used geospatial and statistical methods to evaluate which principal and secondary aquifer systems may be most susceptible to contamination from orphan wells. Analysis involved three sets of susceptibility factors including: 1) factors related to the number and density of orphan wells; 2) factors that can threaten well integrity and contribute to transport of contaminants; and 3) factors related to groundwater withdrawal rates and the affected populations/communities in the event of water quality disturbances. From a dataset of 117,672 documented orphan wells, 64,203 fall within a principal aquifer system, while the remainder fall within a secondary aquifer system. By assessing the combination of well integrity and hydrogeologic factors within these aquifer systems, five groupings of principal aquifers were identified, where groups ranged from aquifer systems with high numbers of orphan wells, multiple well integrity threats and high withdrawals, to aquifers with a relatively low number of orphan wells, limited well integrity threats and minimal water use. Three regions of the country emerge containing aquifers with higher susceptibility to contamination from orphan oil and gas wells. These regions include 1) The Appalachian Basin (including the Pennsylvanian Aquifer System), 2) The Gulf Coast Aquifers (including the Coastal Lowlands Aquifer system) and 3) The California Aquifers (including the California Coastal Basin Aquifer system). This work is the first multivariate geospatial investigation of orphan wells and groundwater resources on a national scale, and sheds light on which aquifers are most susceptible to groundwater contamination from orphan wells.

Science of the Total Environment

Multi-objective optimization of a hydro-economic model in an over-allocated agricultural basin

Groundwater depletion for agricultural irrigation poses significant environmental and economic challenges. This study introduces a proof-of-concept that combines hydro-economic modeling, scenario-based modeling, and multi-objective optimization to manage pumping curtailment in an over-allocated basin in the western United States. Three optimization scenarios were evaluated, each offering different degrees of management flexibility. Results reveal that scenarios with finer spatial resolution achieved greater environmental benefits per unit profit loss. Additionally, strategies allowing fractional reductions in curtailed wells–rather than complete shutdowns based on water rights seniority–substantially improved efficiency, highlighting the value of increased decision-making flexibility. Although scenario testing can aid stakeholder engagement and strategy exploration, multi-objective optimization provides a systematic framework to quantify tradeoffs between competing objectives. This combined approach demonstrates promise for building consensus and supporting the design of sustainable water management strategies that balance agricultural livelihoods with ecosystem preservation.

Oregon

Simulated effects of future water availability and protected species habitat in a perennial wetland, Santa Barbara County, California

This study evaluates the potential water availability in Barka Slough and the effects of changing hydrological conditions on the aquatic habitat of five protected species. Barka Slough is a historically perennial wetland at the downstream western end of the San Antonio Creek Valley watershed (SACVW). A previously published hydrologic model of the SACVW for 1948–2018 was extended to include 2019–2021 and then modified to simulate the future years of 2022–2051. Two models simulating the future years of 2022–2051 were constructed, each with different climate inputs: (1) a repeated historical climate and (2) a 2070-centered Drier Extreme Warming climate (2070 DEW). The model with the 2070 DEW climate had warmer temperatures and an increase in average annual precipitation driven by larger, albeit more infrequent, precipitation events than the model with the historical climate. Simulated groundwater pumpage resulted in cumulative groundwater storage depletion and groundwater-level decline in Barka Slough in both future models. The simulations indicate that Barka Slough may transition from a perennial to an ephemeral wetland. Streamflow, stream disconnection, and depth to groundwater are key habitat metrics for federally listed species in Barka Slough. Future seasonal conditions for each metric are more likely to affect federally listed species’ habitats under 2070 DEW climatic conditions. Future seasonal streamflow volume may negatively impact unarmored threespine stickleback ( Gasterosteus aculeatus williamsoni ) and tidewater goby ( Eucyclogobis newberryi) habitats. Future seasonal stream disconnection may negatively impact the unarmored threespine stickleback habitat. Future groundwater-level decline may negatively impact Gambel’s watercress ( Nasturtium gambelii ) and La Graciosa thistle ( Cirsium scariosum var. loncholepis ) habitats and could influence the ability to use Barka Slough as a restoration or reintroduction site for these species. Results from this study can be used to inform water management decisions to sustain future groundwater availability in the SACVW.

California

ECCOE Landsat quarterly Calibration and Validation report—Quarter 1, 2024

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Center of Excellence (ECCOE) focuses on improving the accuracy, precision, calibration, and product quality of remote-sensing data, leveraging years of multiscale optical system geometric and radiometric calibration and characterization experience. The ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team continually monitors the geometric and radiometric performance of active Landsat missions and makes calibration adjustments, as needed, to maintain data quality at the highest level. This report provides observed geometric and radiometric analysis results for Landsats 8 and 9 for quarter 1 (January–March), 2024. All data used to compile the Cal/Val analysis results presented in this report are freely available from the U.S. Geological Survey EarthExplorer website: https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov . This quarterly report is the third to include analysis results for Landsat 9, which was launched in September 2021. The inclusion of Landsat 9 analysis results was dependent on two factors: a complete reprocessing of the Landsat 9 data archive and enough time elapsing to begin formulating lifetime trends. In April 2023, all Landsat 9 image data acquired since the satellite’s launch were reprocessed to take advantage of calibration updates identified by the ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team. Additional information about the Landsat 9 reprocessing effort is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/news/upcoming-reprocessing-all-landsat-9-data . Additional information about Landsat 9 prelaunch, commissioning, and early on-orbit imaging performance is available at https://www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing/special_issues/15B4V2K92K . This quarterly report is the first to not include analysis results for Landsat 7 because Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imaging was suspended on January 19, 2024, after the satellite transitioned into full sunlight. The satellite has been drifting since early 2022 after being lowered from the nominal orbit altitude, and the transition into full sunlight is a result of the satellite operating in its extended science mission. Additional information about the imaging suspension is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/news/landsat-7-imaging-suspended . Additional information about the Landsat 7 extended science mission is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/landsat-7-extended-science-mission .

Open-File Report

ECCOE Landsat quarterly Calibration and Validation report—Quarter 2, 2024

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Center of Excellence (ECCOE) focuses on improving the accuracy, precision, calibration, and product quality of remote-sensing data, leveraging years of multiscale optical system geometric and radiometric calibration and characterization experience. The ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team continually monitors the geometric and radiometric performance of active Landsat missions and makes calibration adjustments, as needed, to maintain data quality at the highest level. This report provides observed geometric and radiometric analysis results for Landsats 8 and 9 for quarter 2 (April–June) of 2024. All data used to compile the Cal/Val analysis results presented in this report are freely available from the U.S. Geological Survey EarthExplorer website: https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov . This is the fourth quarterly report to include analysis results for Landsat 9, which was launched in September 2021. The inclusion of Landsat 9 analysis results was dependent on two factors: a complete reprocessing of the Landsat 9 data archive and enough time elapsing to begin formulating lifetime trends. In April 2023, all Landsat 9 image data acquired since the satellite’s launch were reprocessed to take advantage of calibration updates identified by the ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team. Additional information about the Landsat 9 reprocessing effort is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/news/upcoming-reprocessing-all-landsat-9-data . Additional information about Landsat 9 prelaunch, commissioning, and early on-orbit imaging performance is available at https://www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing/special_issues/15B4V2K92K . This is the second quarterly report that does not include analysis results for Landsat 7 because Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imaging was suspended on January 19, 2024, after the satellite transitioned into full sunlight. The satellite has been drifting since early 2022 when it was lowered from the nominal orbit altitude, and the transition into full sunlight is a result of the satellite operating in its extended science mission. Additional information about the imaging suspension is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/news/landsat-7-imaging-suspended . Additional information about the Landsat 7 extended science mission is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/landsat-7-extended-science-mission .

Open-File Report

Capturing the uncertainty of seismicity observations in earthquake rate estimates: Implications for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model

The rate of earthquakes in a region is a fundamental input to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. We present a Monte Carlo method for computing that rate from seismicity catalogs while including a range of data and analysis uncertainties. This method is applied to regions for which the b value is assumed to be spatially invariant. Each region is broken down into epochs for which each epoch is estimated to have a uniform magnitude of completeness ( ⁠⁠ M c ). The distribution of earthquake rates for M ≥ M c is determined for each epoch by considering the Poisson likelihood of rates given the number of observed earthquakes with M ≥ M c ⁠ . We use a Monte Carlo process to include the uncertainty in b , ⁠ M c , and individual event magnitudes. The result for each epoch is the joint distribution of the Poisson rate of earthquakes with magnitudes larger than the minimum value used to calculate hazard ( ⁠⁠ M 1 ) and the Gutenberg–Richter b values, which control the extrapolation to other magnitudes. The rate for each region is either the duration‐weighted average over the epochs or, to better capture temporal variations, we also consider mixture models. The mixture models also provide an avenue to allow temporal variations in b values. To implement this joint distribution in a logic tree, we use the mean and 95% confidence branches, each of which is parameterized with an M ≥ M 1 rate and b value. We explore different ways of defining those branches, as well as non‐Gutenberg–Richter branches, and their impact on hazard estimates. The mean hazard, but not the fractiles, is robust with respect to these choices. To illustrate these new methods, we use synthetic data and catalogs from recent U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models for the Central and Eastern United States and for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

central and eastern United States, Puerto Rico, U.

Estimation of dynamic geologic CO2 storage resources in the Illinois Basin, including effects of brine extraction, anisotropy, and hydrogeologic heterogeneity

Since the vast majority of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage resources in the United States are in deep saline aquifers, optimizing the use of these saline storage resources could be crucial for efficient development of geologic CO 2 storage (GCS) resources and basin- or larger-scale deployment of GCS in the country. Maximum CO 2 injection rates can be enhanced by extracting brine from the CO 2 storage unit. However, disposal of the extracted brine is both a technological and economic challenge. The lowest-cost option would likely be reinjection of the extracted brine into another formation above or below the CO 2 storage unit. Therefore, it is important to estimate brine injectivity as it will constrain the potential to increase CO 2 injectivity at an injection site that has access to multiple geologic storage units where either CO 2 or brine can be injected. Using a simulation-optimization framework, coupled with a non-isothermal, multiphase CO 2 -water-salt equation-of-state module, we developed a computationally efficient method for evaluating optimization of simultaneous CO 2 injection, brine extraction, and brine (re)injection at hypothetical injection sites deployed across a geologic basin. The Illinois basin is ideal for testing our methodology because it contains multiple geologic storage units with seals in between them to isolate injection of CO 2 in one unit from interfering with the injection of either brine or CO 2 in another unit above or below it. In addition, we investigated the relative effects of variation in key geologic parameters as well as two reservoir structures (hydrogeologic heterogeneity/anisotropy and homogeneity/isotropy) on CO 2 injectivities and enhancement of CO 2 injectivity through extracting brine. Results suggest that permeability, depth, and especially thickness of the storage unit could be the most influential parameters determining CO 2 injectivity. They also suggest that only injecting CO 2 into the storage unit with the greatest injectivity, enhancing that unit’s injectivity by extracting brine, and disposing of the produced brine in other suitable units could maximize total CO 2 injectivity in limited regions of the basin. At the majority of simulated injection sites, however, we found that injecting CO 2 into all of the accessible and suitable storage units was more likely to maximize the CO 2 storage resource.

Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana

Integration of rupture directivity models for the US National Seismic Hazard Model

Several rupture directivity models (DMs) have been developed in recent years to describe the near-source spatial variations in ground motion amplitudes related to propagation of rupture along the fault. We recently organized an effort towards incorporating these directivity effects into the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), by first evaluating the community's work and potential methods to implement directivity adjustments into probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Guided by this evaluation and comparison among the considered DMs, we selected an approach that can be readily implemented into the USGS hazard software, that provides an azimuthally varying adjustment to the median ground motion and its aleatory variability. This method allows assessment of the impact on hazard levels and provides a platform to test the DM amplification predictions using a generalized coordinate system, necessary for consistent calculation of source-to-site distance terms for complex ruptures. We give examples of the directivity-related impact on hazard, progressing from a simple, hypothetical rupture, to more complex fault systems, composed of multiple rupture segments and sources. The directivity adjustments were constrained to strike-slip faulting, where DMs have good agreement. We find that rupture directivity adjustments using a simple median and aleatory adjustment approach can impact hazard both from a site perspective and on a regional scale, increasing shaking off the end of the fault trace up to 30--40\% and potentially reducing it for sites along strike. Statewide hazard maps of California show that the change in shaking along major faults can be a factor to consider for assessing long-period (>ls) near-source effects within the USGS NSHM going forward, reaching up to 10--20\%. Finally, we suggest consideration of minimum parameter ranges and baseline requirements as future DMs are developed to minimize single approach adaptations, to enable more consistent application within both ground motion and hazard studies.

Earthquake Spectra

Four-band image mosaic of the Colorado River Corridor downstream of Glen Canyon Dam in Arizona, derived from the May 2021 airborne image acquisition

In May 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center acquired airborne multispectral high-resolution data for the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon, Arizona. The image data, which consist of four spectral bands (red, band 1; green, band 2; blue, band 3; and near infrared, band 4) with a ground resolution of 20 centimeters, are available as 16-bit unsigned-integer GeoTIFF files in Sankey and others (2024) (available online at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9BBGN6G ). The image files are projected in the State Plane Coordinate System, using the central Arizona zone (202) with the North American Datum of 1983 National Adjustment of 2011. The assessed spatial accuracy for these data is based on 47 ground-control points that were independent from the ground-control points used by the contractor for aerotriangulation and is reported at the 95-percent confidence level as 0.514 meter (m) and a root mean square error of 0.297 m. The intended uses of this dataset are primarily in support of scientific research and monitoring applications. Examples of these applications include high-resolution spatial and temporal change detection of the river channel, geomorphic landforms, riparian vegetation, and backwater and nearshore habitat, as well as other ecosystem-wide mapping. These imagery data also serve as reference material for field science mission planning, as base data for field data collection including community science activities, and as a highly detailed guide for technical boat operation during science activities such as reconnaissance for nighttime missions and navigating rapids during low flows.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah

Assessing spatial variability of nutrients, phytoplankton, and related water-quality constituents in the California Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta at the landscape scale—2018 high resolution mapping surveys

Executive Summary This study examined the abundance and distribution of nutrients and phytoplankton in the tidal aquatic environments of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and Suisun Bay, comprising three spatial surveys conducted in May, July, and October of 2018 that used continuous underway high frequency sampling and measurements onboard a high-speed boat to characterize spatial variation across the extent of the Delta. The method used involves simultaneously collecting information about the concentration and spatial distribution of all major nutrient forms with analogous information about the major classes of phytoplankton and associated water-quality conditions. The results showed substantial variation across space and time, providing an unprecedented snapshot of the dynamic environmental processes that shape the ways nutrients interact with and affect aquatic habitats in the Delta. The purposes of this study were to improve our understanding of how hydrodynamics, landscape features, and aquatic primary productivity interact to drive nutrient cycling and transport in the Delta and to provide insights into the underlying processes most directly responsible for the conditions at the time of this study, and thus into the range of conditions that may be expected following the wide array of prospective future changes to the Delta. One major anticipated change at the time of this study was the planned upgrade to the Sacramento Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant, but the study also informs our understanding of potential effects from other changes to the Delta, such as those caused by other nutrient-management actions, flow actions, large-scale wetland restoration, drought, flood, levee failure, and changes to water management. Nutrient loading is the primary driver of nutrient concentrations in the Delta, but several other major drivers interact to shape their distribution and effects: geomorphology, hydrodynamics, landscape features, and aquatic productivity. Hydrodynamics affect timescales of transport and dilution of nutrient loads in the Delta. During transit through the system, channel geometry, tidal mixing, and water exports affect hydrodynamics in diverse ways that influence water-residence and transport times, thereby markedly affecting the range of times during which natural internal cycling can alter nutrient concentrations and forms. Channel geometry and location shape tidal energy and river currents into these observed dynamics. Interactions with Delta aquatic landscapes such as herbaceous tidal marsh, submerged aquatic vegetation, and large expanses of intertidal or subtidal sediments (all highly productive landscapes) exert demand on available nutrient supplies but can also simultaneously transform and generate nutrients. Finally, while phytoplankton require nutrients to sustain production and thus are a potential nutrient sink, the amount and form of nutrients also can influence the occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that adversely affect aquatic organisms as well as affect the occurrence of beneficial algal blooms that result in production of algae that are favorable for imperiled Delta pelagic aquatic food webs. The surveys revealed a complex mosaic of spatial variation, with nutrient concentrations varying from near zero to well above concentrations considered eutrophic; nutrient concentrations were more often related to the extent of hydrologic transport and mixing than to specific geographic locations or to specific landscape features. Similarly, the surveys identified phytoplankton abundance ranging from near detection to the level of large phytoplankton blooms, with large variation in phytoplankton community composition. Although the study occurred during a period of low bloom activity, phytoplankton productivity appeared to be the strongest potential sink for inorganic nutrients in the Delta, indicating that it is a larger control on nutrient concentrations and distribution than previously understood. Cycling and transformation within the water column only appeared to substantially lower total nutrient concentrations at the longest estimated transport timescales. Contrary to expectations, we did not observe substantial nutrient depletion near landscape-scale features such as open-water habitats, submerged aquatic vegetation beds, extensive wetlands, or exposed sediments, indicating that these habitat types did not act as major sinks for nutrients in the Delta during these surveys. These results indicated that nutrient reduction efforts may have the greatest effect on pelagic phytoplankton productivity in the more productive reaches of the Delta and estuary, but these effects are unlikely to be magnified by changes to nutrient loss within the Delta over conceivable changes in flow conditions, Delta water management actions, or large-scale wetland restoration activities. Nevertheless, local processes were shown to cause substantial loss, and thus integrating of nutrient effects with other indicators of aquatic habitat conditions will help inform planning future actions at specific sites. Finally, we note that the primary contribution of this study was intended to be the survey data themselves. Aside from the results highlighted in this report, the surveys are a benchmark against which future environmental change may be evaluated, including changes to nutrient management or water exports, drought, large-scale wetland restoration, and climate change. Further, although we highlight some of the main findings from the surveys in this report, the necessarily limited scope precludes examination of many topics for which these surveys may be highly informative. To facilitate the utility of these data to stakeholders, managers, and researchers, we have released the data online (Bergamaschi and others, 2020) and created an online data exploration portal ( https:​//ca.water​.usgs.gov/​bay-​delta/​2018-​delta-​wide-​mapping-​surveys.html ) where users may query the surveys in a variety of ways to test hypotheses, examine relationships, assess spatial trends, and download data. The data exploration portal is intended to be an immersive experience that allows users to gain greater understanding of the complex interactions that shape Delta aquatic environments. This report is intended as a companion to the portal, allowing the reader to challenge and further explore the highlighted findings. This study was a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Delta Regional Monitoring Program, with additional funding provided from U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Matching Funds Program.

California

Constraining landslide frequency across the United States to inform county-level risk reduction

Informative landslide hazard estimates are needed to support landslide mitigation strategies to reduce landslide risk across the United States. Whereas existing national-scale landslide susceptibility products assess where landslides are likely to occur, they do not address how often , which is a critical element of landslide hazard and risk assessments. In particular, the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index (NRI) requires landslide frequency estimates to inform expected annual loss estimates. We present county-level landslide frequency (landslides per area per year) estimates for the 50 US states. We applied Bayesian negative binomial regression to estimate both the expected (average) reported landslide frequency and full distribution of annual landslide counts for each county. We compared a suite of models that used combinations of landslide-susceptible area, probability of potentially triggering earthquakes, frequency of potentially triggering precipitation, and ecological region as predictors. We trained our models with landslide inventory data from counties with the most comprehensive records available nationwide and used zero-inflated negative binomial distributions as an incompleteness model to correct for temporal reporting gaps. We selected a preferred frequency model to inform the NRI based on information criteria and physically plausible parameter estimates. The model showed that average annual reported landslide frequencies vary by 5 orders of magnitude across US counties, ranging from 0.002 (0.00015–0.05) landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 in Kusilvak Census Area, Alaska, to 29 (19–46) landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 in Lake County, California, reflecting the country's strong variations in landslide susceptibility, earthquake probability, and other factors for which ecological region serves as a proxy. Counties with estimated frequencies in the top 20 % of all counties are predominately along the West Coast of the continental United States, in mountainous regions of the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West, in locally steep or earthquake-prone regions of the Midwest and Southeast, along the Appalachians, in southern and southeastern Alaska, and on some Hawaiian islands. By examining the number of landslides predicted in 99th percentile years for each county, we identified that 26 % of US counties likely have potential for widespread landsliding with more than 10 landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 , even when such large events have not been reported in the training data for that county. Overall, our results better represent the range of possible landslide frequencies and spatial variations than previous national-scale estimates reported in the NRI, and our approach can inform other risk-reduction and loss-mitigation efforts across the United States and globally.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Performance analysis of oil recovery and CO2 retention in a greenfield residual oil zone: CO2-EOR in Tall Cotton Field (Permian Basin, West Texas, USA)

Residual oil zones (ROZs) can offer significant oil resources via enhanced oil recovery (EOR) as well as subsurface carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) retention during injection. If injected CO 2 is anthropogenic, the ROZs can offer a substantial geologic storage potential. The ROZs below the oil/water contact (OWC) of main pay zones (MPZ) in conventional reservoirs or brownfields, are more commonly developed for CO 2 injection and oil production and reported in the literature. However, CO 2 -EOR in greenfield ROZs, reservoirs without a MPZ present, have rarely been developed for CO 2 -EOR operation. The Tall Cotton Field of West Texas, Permian Basin, which started production in 2015 (Phase 1) and expanded in 2017 (Phase 2) from the San Andres Limestone, is one of the first examples of greenfield ROZs developed for EOR by injecting CO 2 . This paper analyses EOR and CO 2 retention performance of Tall Cotton Field using allocated injection and production data from inverted 5-spot well patterns of Phase-1 and -2 developments. Production and injection data allocated to each of the 28 identified patterns (nine 20-acre patterns for Phase-1, three 20-acre and sixteen 10-acre patterns for Phase-2) were analyzed for historical and forecasted oil recovery using ratio-trend decline analysis, and for CO 2 retention performance of the patterns. The allocated data were further used to calculate injected reservoir pore volume and void replacement ratios (VRR) for the analysis period. Quantitative results indicated that oil recovery factors of the 5-spot patterns varied between 4–10 %, and 5–30 % between the end of injection and the forecast periods, respectively. Storage of CO 2 , on the other hand, increased to a mean value of ∼7130 MMscf per pattern in Phase-1 and to a mean storage of 3700 MMscf per pattern in Phase-2 until the end of injection, followed by a decline after the end of injection and into the forecast period. Resulting CO 2 utilization factors ∼6–50 Mscf/bbl were estimated at the end of injection. Overall, presented results suggested that developing greenfield ROZs for CO 2 -EOR can be as promising as brownfield ROZs and mature MPZs for EOR and underground storage of injected CO 2 . For Tall Cotton Field, results suggest that Phase-2 patterns generally outperformed Phase-1 for oil recovery factors, while Phase-1 performed better in CO 2 retention performance metrics. This is the first study in the literature that reports a detailed CO 2 -EOR performance analysis of a greenfield ROZ in the Permian Basin, which can potentially allow for comparison with MPZs and brownfield ROZs.

Texas

Estimated average annualized tsunami losses for the United States

Tsunami hazards are substantial threats to coastal communities across the United States (U.S.) and its territories. U.S. states and territories collaborate through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to develop their own tsunami-hazard information for outreach and evacuation planning. An effort to curate this tsunami-hazard information to support comprehensive risk analysis at the national level has not yet been completed. In support of this effort, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) collaborated with the NTHMP, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) starting in 2023. This collaboration included the collection and analysis of existing tsunami hazard data and methods in the U.S. Tsunami subject matter experts identified and selected scientifically defensible methods for estimating the risks to buildings and populations in coastal communities. These efforts may support decision making regarding resilience policies, priorities, strategies and funding levels. Tsunamis can be triggered by earthquakes, subaerial or submarine landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather or other events. These events can cause severe destruction, injuries, and loss of life due to powerful currents and flooding. Tsunamis pose a substantial threat to the western United States and all U.S. territories, as described below. ■ Hawaii is threatened by distant tsunamis due to its central location in the Pacific Ocean basin and has a history of local events. ■ Alaska, particularly the Aleutian Islands, faces local tsunami threats due to proximity to the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone, as well as distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin. ■ The western coast of the U.S. is threatened by distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin and local source tsunamis from earthquakes generated within the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest. ■ American Samoa faces local tsunami threats from earthquakes generated in the nearby Tonga Trench, as well as distant tsunami threats. ■ Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands are threatened by local tsunamis from the nearby Mariana Subduction Zone, as well as distant sources from around the Pacific Ocean Basin. ■ Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands are threatened by multiple local and distant tsunami sources, such as the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT), given their location in the complex seismic region of the Caribbean Sea. Several historical events stand out because of their catastrophic impacts. ■ In the Pacific Northwest, the 1700 Cascadia earthquake caused a tsunami that affected coastal Native American communities, though the extent of the damage is not fully documented (Ludwin, et al., 2005). ■ In Puerto Rico, the 1918 earthquake triggered a tsunami that caused $77 million in damage in 2022 dollars and 116 fatalities, primarily along the western coast (Coffman et al., 1982). ■ The 1946 Aleutian Islands earthquake triggered a massive tsunami that devastated Hilo, Hawaii, killing 158 people and resulting in approximately $375 million in damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Fisher et al., 2023). ■ The 1964 Alaska earthquake (M 9.2) generated tsunamis that caused severe destruction in some communities across Alaska, Oregon, and California. This disaster led to a total of 124 fatalities and approximately $2.9 billion in property damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Brocher et al., 2014) (Alaska Science Center, 2024). ■ In American Samoa, a tsunami generated by the 2009 Samoa earthquake (Mw 8.1) caused widespread devastation, resulting in 34 confirmed fatalities (Apatu et al., 2013) and economic losses exceeding $160 million (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (DHS, 2011). More recent events, including the 2010 Chile earthquake, the 2011 Japan earthquake, and the 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption, resulted in millions of dollars in damage to numerous ports and harbors in the U.S. South Pacific territories, Hawaii, and along the west coast of the U.S. (Lynett, et al., 2022) (Wilson, et al., 2013). Since these events, the expansion of the built environment in lowlying areas along the coast has increased the exposure of buildings and people, thereby further escalating community risk from tsunamis. This report provides a comprehensive national assessment of earthquake-generated tsunami risk. It does not include impacts from tsunamis generated by landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather, or other events. This study is based on the best available hazard data from the U.S. Pacific Coast (California, Oregon and Washington), Alaska, Hawaii, U.S. Pacific Territories (American Samoa, Guam and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands) and Caribbean Territories (Puerto Rico and United States Virgin Islands). Tsunami risks associated with states along the East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Great Lakes are not included in this study because Hazus 6.1 software (FEMA 2024a) does not currently include the ability to analyze tsunami risk in those states. Once modeling capabilities and tsunami hazard data become available for additional states, FEMA may incorporate these data into future editions of this study.

Alaska, California, Hawaii Oregon, Washington

Reduced injection rates and shallower depths mitigated induced seismicity in Oklahoma

The proximity of wastewater disposal to the Precambrian basement is a critical factor influencing induced earthquake rates in the Central United States, but the impact of reducing injection depths has not been widely demonstrated. Beginning in 2015, state regulatory efforts in Oklahoma and Kansas mandated that wells injecting into the lower Arbuckle Group, a basal sedimentary unit, be backfilled with cement (i.e. “plugged back”) so that they inject into shallower formations. This plug back activity gives us a unique opportunity to investigate the relationship between injection depth and induced seismicity rate. To evaluate the impact that decreased injection rates and plug backs had on the seismicity rates, we create a suite of rate-state earthquake models. Observed seismicity rates are best fit when only lower Arbuckle volumes are considered, suggesting the lower Arbuckle injectors were primarily responsible for the seismicity and that plug backs were effective at isolating the injected volumes to shallower formations. Our models demonstrate that if these wells had not been plugged back, seismicity rates would be multiple times larger than they are today. We find that the combination of well plug backs and injection volume decreases can be effective strategies for reducing induced seismicity rates.

Oklahoma

Greater sage-grouse habitat of Nevada and northeastern California—Integrating space use, habitat selection, and survival indices to guide areas for habitat management

Executive Summary Greater sage-grouse populations ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse) are threatened by a suite of disturbances and anthropogenic factors that have contributed to a net loss of sagebrush-dominant shrub cover in recent decades. Declines in sage-grouse populations are largely linked to habitat loss across their range. A key component of conservation and land use planning efforts for sage-grouse involves the continued monitoring and modeling of habitat requirements and suitability across its range. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is addressing the management of sage-grouse habitats on BLM-authorized public lands throughout the western United States through a land use planning amendment and associated environmental impact statement (86 FR 66331). More than 25 percent of the range-wide distribution of sage-grouse is within Nevada and northeastern California, and information on sage-grouse distribution and habitat requirements is important to guide appropriate management decisions. Therefore, the BLM has identified the need for updated spatially explicit information on sage-grouse habitat in Nevada and northeastern California to guide the land use planning amendment and associated management decisions. To address this need, researchers with the U.S. Geological Survey, in close cooperation with multiple State and Federal resource agency partners, including BLM, Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW), sought to map sage-grouse distribution and produce example habitat designations in these states. Herein, we report results of our primary study objective, which was to map sage-grouse habitat and create example habitat management areas, based on more than a decade of location and survival data collected from marked sage-grouse across the study region coupled with lek count survey data managed by the NDOW and the CDFW. We expanded on previously developed methodology to incorporate information on habitat selection and survival during reproductive life stages and specific seasons with updated sage-grouse location and known fate datasets, while also including brood-rearing areas that are understood to be threatened and important for population persistence. We combined predictive habitat map surfaces for each life stage and season with updated information on current occupancy patterns to classify habitat based on its suitability and probability of occupancy. We carried out additional steps to delineate specific example habitat management areas, specifically (1) incorporated corridors connecting key nesting and brood-rearing habitat, (2) corrected outputs for pre-wildfire habitat conditions within areas burned in the last 16 years, and (3) masked out areas of anthropogenic development. Our methodological example of deriving habitat management areas was intended to help inform decisions by BLM and other land managers regarding conservation and management of sage-grouse. Associated data products in the form of habitat maps provide updated, detailed, and comprehensive information about the status of habitats and can be useful to partner agencies in their efforts to designate and rank habitats for this species of high conservation concern in Nevada and California, with full recognition that on-the-ground field data and local sources of information and expertise should be used in conjunction with inferences from these models.

California, Idaho, Nevada

Monitoring and assessment of urban stormwater best management practices at selected Chicago public schools in Chicago, Illinois, from September 1, 2016, to July 1, 2017

The Space to Grow program helps transform aging and neglected schoolyards of Chicago Public Schools into outdoor community spaces with the goal of promoting health and learning while addressing neighborhood flooding issues. Virgil I. Grissom Elementary School and Donald L. Morrill Math and Science School were selected in 2014 for schoolyard upgrades and the installation of various green infrastructure (GI) improvements. The U.S. Geological Survey installed sensors to measure precipitation, groundwater levels, and stormwater runoff volumes from September 1, 2016, to July 1, 2017. At Virgil I. Grissom Elementary School, about 933,000 gallons of water fell on the schoolyard during the monitoring period. No discharge was recorded coming from the GI sewer lines, but backflow indicated water was flowing from the sewer line draining the impervious running track into the combined manhole structure and backwards into the GI retention basins (as designed). This design allowed for a 100-percent capture rate. Native soil at Virgil I. Grissom Elementary School also was conducive to rapid infiltration. Soil borings at Virgil I. Grissom Elementary School indicated about 10.5 feet (ft) of fine sand overlying silty clay to a depth of at least 16 ft. At Donald L. Morrill Math and Science School, about 1,120,000 gallons of water fell on the schoolyard during the monitoring period. About 72.5 precent of this water was discharged into the sewer system, and the other 27.5 percent was captured by the GI. Unlike Virgil I. Grissom Elementary School, the soil profile at Donald L. Morrill Math and Science School consisted of about 5 ft of clay loam overlying stiff blue clay to a depth of at least 12 ft. The sewer line coming from the GI under the football field was at the bottom of the reservoir. This design seemed to allow water to flow out of the line before being absorbed by the retention basin.

Illinois

A 700-year rupture sequence of great eastern Aleutian earthquakes from tsunami modeling of stratigraphic records

Great Aleutian underthrusting earthquakes produced destructive tsunamis impacting Hawaiʻi in 1946 and 1957. Prior modeling of the 1957 tsunami deposit and runup records on eastern Aleutian and Hawaiian Islands jointly with tide-gauge observations across the Pacific Ocean constrained a rupture model with shallow slip up to 26 m along 600 km of the plate boundary. Here we implement this modeling approach to older deposits and show alternating deep and shallow megathrust slip up to 26, 32, and 22 m for great earthquakes along the same segment in the 18 th , 15 th , and 14 th centuries. All three modeled prehistoric Aleutian earthquakes produce tsunami inundation in Hawaiʻi with the most severe, 14 th century event having impacts exceeding the 1957 event. The along-dip variability of these four ruptures spanning seven centuries provides insights on earthquake cycles for engineering design and hazard assessment. The 15 th century and 1957 rupture models provide evidence for recurrence of tsunami earthquakes, which can produce disproportionately large tsunamis for a given moment magnitude due to reduced rigidity in the shallow megathrust. The 14 th and 18 th century events likely ruptured deeper regions that did not slip in 1957, suggesting potential for corresponding deeper failure in the next great eastern Aleutian earthquake.

Alaska, Hawaii