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1,216 records · Page 15Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Beyond the wedge: Impact of tidal streams on salinization of groundwater in a coastal aquifer stressed by pumping and sea-level rise

Saltwater intrusion (SWI) is a well-studied phenomenon that threatens the freshwater supplies of coastal communities around the world. The development and advancement of numerical models has led to improved assessment of the risk of salinization. However, these studies often fail to include the impact of surface waters as potential sources of aquifer salinity and how they may impact SWI. Based on field-collected data, we developed a regional, variable-density groundwater model using SEAWAT for east Dover, Delaware. In this location, major users of groundwater from the surficial aquifer are the City of Dover and irrigation for agriculture. Our model includes salinized marshland and tidal streams, along with irrigation and municipal pumping wells. Model scenarios were run for 100 years and included changes in pumping rates and sea-level rise (SLR). We examined how these drivers of SWI affect the extent and location of salinization in the surficial aquifer by evaluating differences in chloride concentration near surface waters and the subsurface freshwater-saltwater interface. We found the presence of the marsh inverts the typical freshwater-saltwater wedge interface and that the edge of the interface did not migrate farther inland. Additionally, we found that tidal streams are the dominant pathways of SWI at our site with salinization from streams being exacerbated by SLR. Our results also show that spatial distribution of pumping affects both the magnitude and extent of salinization, with an increase in concentrated pumping leading to more intensive salinization than a more widely distributed increase of the same total pumping volume.

Delaware↗
USGS2026

Simulation of groundwater flow to evaluate hydrogeologic controls on a PFAS plume, Coakley Landfill Superfund Site, Rockingham County, New Hampshire

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), including perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), have been detected at combined concentrations above 2,000 nanograms per liter (ng/L) at groundwater seep locations near the Coakley Landfill Superfund site, in North Hampton, New Hampshire. The landfill was active from 1972 to 1985. An impermeable cap was placed on the landfill in 1998. The adjacent area to the Coakley Landfill has many water supply wells, and transport of PFAS compounds to the wells is a concern. Fracture anisotropy in the underlying bedrock aquifer complicates the understanding of PFAS transport because groundwater preferentially travels along fractures that may not align with the prevailing groundwater flow direction. In 2018, the U.S Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Geological Survey began an investigation of the groundwater flow from the Coakley Landfill site. This report describes the modification of a numerical groundwater-flow model for the local area around the Coakley Landfill and summarizes findings of the investigation. In addition, this report includes a brief description of PFOA and PFOS occurrence, a discussion of model construction, evaluation of model performance through calibration, and discussion of simulation results for two periods (before and after capping). Limitations are also discussed. Results show that simulated groundwater flow moves from the Coakley Landfill to the west and north. Advective transport modeling using particle tracking shows that groundwater from the landfill discharges primarily to streams to the west and north, and a small amount is transported to distal wells. Dilution of contaminants through advection and dispersion likely plays a role in whether PFAS compounds from the landfill will be detected above laboratory reporting levels at distal wells.

EarthArXiv↗
USGS2026

Effect of mineral deposit data on predictions from the three-part approach to quantitative mineral resource assessment—A study of 16 previous U.S. Geological Survey assessments

The three-part approach to quantitative mineral resource assessment requires information about the properties of undiscovered mineral deposits in an assessment area. These properties are unknown, so the properties of discovered mineral deposits of the same mineral deposit type are used instead. In the three-part approach, these discovered mineral deposits come from around the world, and their properties constitute the pooled data for that mineral deposit type. Alternatively, these discovered mineral deposits could come from the assessment area, and their properties constitute the tract data for that mineral deposit type. Tract data may be more representative of the undiscovered mineral deposits in the assessment area than the pooled data. The goal of this study was to determine whether resource predictions using pooled data are equivalent to resource predictions using tract data. To this end, 16 previous U.S Geological Survey assessments were studied. For each assessment, resources were predicted for one undiscovered mineral deposit in the assessment area. One set of predictions used pooled data, and another used tract data. The two sets of predictions were compared with an equivalence test, using the six assessment statistics that are commonly reported for mineral resource assessments. Practical equivalence is the condition that two corresponding assessment statistics are within a factor of 1.5 of one another. For each of 2 assessments, all 6 assessment statistics were practically equivalent. For both assessments, the assessment statistics from the pooled data, relative to the corresponding assessment statistics from the tract data, ranged from 1.30 times smaller to 1.03 times larger. For each of 14 assessments, 1 or more of the 6 assessment statistics were not practically equivalent. The assessment statistics from the pooled data, relative to the corresponding assessment statistics from the tract data, ranged from 26.6 times smaller to 5.53 times larger. The use of pooled data has been a standard procedure in the three-part approach since at least 1986. The 16 assessments in this study are not a representative sample of those prior assessments that used pooled data. So, it is inappropriate to use the study results to infer whether pooled data affected the resource predictions for those prior assessments.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2000

Quality assurance and analysis of water levels in wells on Pahute Mesa and vicinity, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada

Periodic and continual water-level data from 1963 to 1998 were compiled and quality assured for 65 observation wells on Pahute Mesa and vicinity, Nye County, Nevada. As part of the quality assurance of all water levels, ancillary data pertinent to computing hydraulic heads in wells were compiled and analyzed. Quality-assured water levels that were not necessarily in error but which did not represent static heads in the regional aquifer system, or required some other qualification, were flagged. Water levels flagged include those recovering from recent pumping or well construction, water levels affected by nuclear tests, and measurements affected by borehole deviations. A cursory examination of about 30 wells with available water-level and down-hole temperature data indicate that water levels in most wells on Pahute Mesa would not be significantly affected by temperature if corrected to 95 degrees Fahrenheit. Wells with large corrections (greater than 10 feet) are those with long water columns (greater than 1,500 feet of water above the assumed point of inflow) in combination with mean water-column temperatures exceeding 105 degrees Fahrenheit. Water-level fluctuations in wells on Pahute Mesa are caused by several factors including infiltration of precipitation, barometric pressure, Earth tides, ground-water pumpage, and seismic events caused by tectonic activity and underground nuclear testing. No observed water-level fluctuations were attributed to a naturally occurring earthquake. The magnitude and duration of changes in water levels caused by nuclear tests are affected by the test size and the distance from a well to the test. Identifying water levels that might be affected by past nuclear tests is difficult because pre-testing water-level data are sparse. Hydrologically significant trends were found in 13 of 25 wells with multiple years of water-level record. The largest change in water levels (1,029 feet in 25 years) occurred in well U-19v PS 1D as a result of the Almendro nuclear test. Likely explanations for trends in most of the wells are either changes in precipitation patterns that affect recharge rates to the ground-water system, pumping effects from water-supply well U-20 WW, or a combination of these two factors.

Nevada↗
USGS2024

Intense alteration on early Mars revealed by high-aluminum rocks at Jezero Crater

The NASA Perseverance rover discovered light-toned float rocks scattered across the surface of Jezero crater that are particularly rich in alumina ( ~ 35 wt% Al 2 O 3 ) and depleted in other major elements (except silica). These unique float rocks have heterogeneous mineralogy ranging from kaolinite/halloysite-bearing in hydrated samples, to spinel-bearing in dehydrated samples also containing a dehydrated Al-rich phase. Here we describe SuperCam and Mastcam-Z observations of the float rocks, including the first in situ identification of kaolinite or halloysite on another planet, and dehydrated phases including spinel and apparent partially dehydroxylated kaolinite. The presence of spinel in these samples is likely detrital in origin, surviving kaolinitization, pointing to an ultramafic origin. However, the association of low hydration with increased Al 2 O 3 abundances suggests heating-induced dehydration which could have occurred during the lithification or impact excavation of these rocks. Given the orbital context of kaolinite-bearing megabreccia in the Jezero crater rim, we propose an origin for these rocks involving intense aqueous alteration of the parent material, followed by dehydration/lithification potentially through impact processes, and dispersion into Jezero crater through flood or impact-related processes.

Communications Earth & Environment↗
USGS2025

Fluid inclusion constraints on the geometry of the magmatic plumbing system beneath Mauna Loa – Part 2: Xenoliths

Mauna Loa volcano erupts crystal-poor material at its summit and more crystal-rich material on its rift zones. Some of the more olivine-rich lava flows contain xenoliths with diverse mineralogy, including cumulate harzburgites with high-Mg# orthopyroxenes and high-Fo olivines (both > 84). Previous experimental work and thermodynamic modelling has proposed that high-Mg# orthopyroxenes only crystallize from Mauna Loa melts at high pressures (> 6 kbar, > 20 km), leading to suggestions that there is a region of sub-Moho magma storage at Mauna Loa in addition to the geophysically imaged magma reservoir at 2–5 km depth below the summit. We use melt and fluid inclusion barometry combined with thermodynamic models to further investigate this suggestion. Fluid inclusion data from harzburgites and dunitic xenoliths yield storage depths remarkably similar to those found in non-xenolithic crystals from lavas and tephras, with a clear peak at ~ 2–3 km (below the summit). Depths from melt inclusions in these xenoliths overlap with fluid inclusion pressures, ruling out the possibility of fluid inclusion re-equilibration during a period of stalling in a shallower reservoir. We examine five different thermodynamic models and find that the minimum pressure of olivine-orthopyroxene co-saturation varies by ~ 4 kbar (~ 12 km). These models also fail to predict that orthopyroxene is stable in ~ 15–80% of compositionally relevant experimental charges which grew orthopyroxene. Overall, this shows that phase stability modelling is an unreliable method of determining magma storage depth at Mauna Loa. We suggest that model discrepancies reflect a lack of experimental constraints on orthopyroxene stability at > 1200 ℃ and 0.01–5 kbar. Based on the presence of large oikocrystic orthopyroxenes completely enclosing rounded olivine chadacrysts, we suggest that these harzburgitic xenoliths formed through the reaction of intruding melts with olivine mush piles within the Mauna Loa edifice at ~ 3 km depth below the summit, with no need for a deeper storage reservoir. The predominance of pre-eruptive shallow storage means that there is more chance of detecting reservoir destabilization with geophysical monitoring techniques compared to a scenario where melts are supplied from sub-Moho reservoirs.

Hawaii↗
USGS2024

An orbital comparison of a late mantling unit on Aeolis Mons with other erosion-resistant strata explored by MSL in Gale crater, Mars

Previous investigations along Curiosity 's traverse in Gale crater have explored the relationship between orbital and in situ observations. This work aims to better understand the geologic environment of units only observable from orbit and compare them to the properties of units examined by Curiosity . Here, we map an erosion-resistant dark-toned mantling unit that overlies the modern topography of Aeolis Mons (informally known as Mt. Sharp) and compare this unit to two other previously mapped dark-toned resistant units, the marker band and the mound skirting unit (MSU), that have been inferred to represent different geologic environments (lacustrine and aeolian, respectively). Visible to short wave infrared spectra from the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars and visual images from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment and Context Cameras aboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter are used for this comparison. Spectral data suggest a mafic composition with minor alteration, although the composition varies more with location around Mt. Sharp rather than between units. Morphologically, the mantling unit has strong similarities to the marker band based on their consistent low-albedo, erosion-resistance, and smooth appearance, contrasting with the highly variable surface texture of the MSU. We hypothesize that all three units had a similar sediment source but experienced aqueous alteration at different times: early ubiquitous cementation in a surface aqueous environment in the mantling unit and marker band versus patchy late diagenesis in the MSU. If true, these results suggest that water activity continued within the Gale crater long after the erosion of Mt. Sharp.

JGR Planets↗
USGS2025

The impact of burial diagenesis on soil-formed minerals in paleosols using stable isotopes of phyllosilicates and carbonate clumped isotopes

To understand the effects of burial diagenesis on the stable isotope geochemistry of soil-formed clay and carbonate minerals in paleosols, samples were collected from seven cores, spanning middle- to upper-Pennsylvanian strata of the Illinois Basin, with varied maximum burial depths of 1–3 km. Mixed-layer illite-smectite and kaolinite mixtures give δ 2 H and δ 18 O values of −83 ‰ to −36 ‰ and 11.9 ‰ to 21.1 ‰ (VSMOW), respectively. After carbonates were screened petrographically for diagenetic textures using transmitted light and cathodoluminescence, measured clumped isotope Δ 47 values range from 0.504 to 0.563 ‰ (I-CDES). Resulting mineral formation temperatures for phyllosilicate mineral mixtures are 28 to 66 °C (mean = 47 °C), whereas T(Δ 47 ) estimates for calcites are 36 to 61 °C (mean = 45 °C). Calculated δ 18 O water values from which phyllosilicate minerals and calcites precipitated under isotopic equilibrium ranges from −7.1 to −1.2 ‰ and − 1.4 to +4.9 ‰, respectively. Closed and open-system phyllosilicate-fluid exchange modeling indicates that phyllosilicate alteration occurred in the presence of a low temperature brine or meteoric water and is interpreted to occur in a layer-by-layer illitization transformation. Due to the lack of diagenetic textures and positively correlated T(Δ 47 ) and δ 18 O water , calcites are interpreted to have undergone solid-state bond reordering. Despite low to moderate temperatures (<125 °C) and varying depths of shallow burial (1–3 km), solid-state transformation of phyllosilicates and calcites indicates paleosols had prolonged exposure to burial conditions which has implications for the use of paleosol minerals for paleoenvironmental reconstructions.

Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky↗
USGS2025

Reflections on a trio of North American earthquakes in 1925

In 1925, three moderately large damaging earthquakes occurred in North America over four months: the 28 February (local time; LT) M 6.2 Charlevoix, 27 June (LT) M 6.6 Montana, and 29 June M 6.5 Santa Barbara earthquakes. The centennial anniversaries of these events motivated this retrospective consideration focused on the ground motions generated by the three events, including a reconsideration of early intensity assignments for the Montana earthquake. At the time, these three earthquakes appeared to support the arguments of some geologists who downplayed the severity of seismic hazard in southern California relative to other parts of the country. Some of the arguments advanced at that time, for example that Los Angeles “has the least to fear from ‘Acts of God’ of any city under the American flag,” ( Hill, 1928 ) sound naïve if not laughable now, but a comparison of well‐constrained shaking distributions for the three earthquakes reveals the dramatic difference in wave propagation efficiency in western versus eastern North America (ENAM), which leads to moderate ENAM events being felt to much larger distances. At M 6.2, the 1925 Charlevoix earthquake was a notably large event in ENAM. This earthquake was the largest event in eastern Canada since 1870 and caused damage in the epicentral region in addition to towns as far away as 200 km, with felt shaking extending over 1000 km. In contrast, felt shaking from the Santa Barbara earthquake barely extended beyond ∼200 km. Compiling published intensity distributions for larger ENAM earthquakes, we show that perceptible earthquake shaking is not uncommon in ENAM over century time scales, but experience with weakly felt shaking may incline people to downplay potential earthquake risk.

California, Montana, Quebec↗
USGS2026

Hydrogeology, groundwater salinity distributions, and assessment of the effect of oil-production activities on groundwater in the Midway Valley area, western Kern County, San Joaquin Valley, California

This study seeks to determine the effects of oil field produced water disposal operations and well mechanical integrity issues on groundwater quality in oil fields in the southwest San Joaquin Valley, California. Whereas previous studies used groundwater wells to study shallow aquifers outside the oil fields, this study demonstrates that future approaches may use oil well geophysical logs to map groundwater head gradients, create salinity profiles and document changes in salinity over time in oil field areas with sparse groundwater well data and at depths greater than 330 m. We also incorporate an analysis of well histories to determine potential effects of compromised wellbore seals on changes in aquifer quality that cannot be explained by water disposal practices. Water quality in the aquifers is naturally brackish across most of the area, with better quality groundwater occurring in the eastern part. Geophysical logs are used to determine salinity variations within aquifers including the depth at which TDS exceeds 10,000 mg/L. This depth ranges from 366 m in the northwest to approximately 1,500 m in the southeast. Oil well porosity logs are used to determine water table elevations. These logs indicate the water table slopes south-southeast, showing the predominant groundwater flow direction is from oil field disposal areas toward better quality groundwater east of the oil fields. Geophysical logs show formation resistivity near some disposal facilities has decreased over time, indicating the salinity of the aquifer has increased due to disposal of saline produced water in injection wells and ponds. Oil well history analysis suggests that increased salinity over time in water-saturated sand intervals >1.5 km from disposal facilities may be caused by mechanical failures and/or incomplete borehole seals in poorly constructed or abandoned wellbores prevalent throughout the study area—particularly wells drilled prior to 1930.

California↗
USGS2026

Simulation of groundwater flow to evaluate hydrogeologic controls on a PFAS plume, Coakley Landfill Superfund site, Rockingham County, New Hampshire

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), including perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), have been detected at combined concentrations above 2,000 nanograms per liter (ng/L) at groundwater seep locations near the Coakley Landfill Superfund site, in North Hampton, New Hampshire. The landfill was active from 1972 to 1985. An impermeable cap was placed on the landfill in 1998. The adjacent area to the Coakley Landfill has many water supply wells, and transport of PFAS compounds to the wells is a concern. Fracture anisotropy in the underlying bedrock aquifer complicates the understanding of PFAS transport because groundwater preferentially travels along fractures that may not align with the prevailing groundwater flow direction. In 2018, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Geological Survey began an investigation of the groundwater flow from the Coakley Landfill site. This report describes the modification of a numerical groundwater-flow model for the local area around the Coakley Landfill and summarizes findings of the investigation. In addition, this report includes a brief description of PFOA and PFOS occurrence, a discussion of model construction, evaluation of model performance through calibration, and discussion of simulation results for two periods (before and after capping). Limitations are also discussed. Results show that simulated groundwater flow moves from the Coakley Landfill to the west and north. Advective transport modeling using particle tracking shows that groundwater from the landfill discharges primarily to streams to the west and north, and a small amount is transported to distal wells. Dilution of contaminants through advection and dispersion likely plays a role in whether PFAS compounds from the landfill will be detected above laboratory reporting levels at distal wells.

New Hampshire↗
USGS2026

Preface to the focus section on intraplate earthquakes

More than a half century after plate tectonics provided an overarching framework to explain earthquakes along active plate boundaries, numerous theories have been proposed to explain where, why, and how often earthquakes occur well away from active plate boundaries, but a paradigm remains elusive. Even the classification of earthquakes away from active plate boundaries as "intraplate" raises issues, with potentially important distinctions between Stable Continental Regions and more actively deforming regions including passive margins and failed rifts. Some of the largest known intraplate earthquakes themselves remain enigmatic, having occurred before the modern instrumental era. Hazard assessments are often data-limited: low fault-slip rates relative to landscape modification rates result in poor discoverability of fault sources, challenging the characterization of source zones and earthquake recurrence; the completeness and homogenization of instrumental earthquake catalogs using uncertain magnitude conversions can lead to uncertainties in earthquake recurrence; and, limited strong-motion observations for large-magnitude events at near-source distances leads to uncertainties in the selection and development of ground-motion models for seismic hazard studies. Data from recent intraplate earthquakes around the world—from the moment magnitude M 7.7 2001 Bhuj, India, earthquake 25 years ago to the 2024 M 4.8 Tewksbury, New Jersey earthquake—have yielded both new insights and new questions. The papers in this special focus discuss many of the long-standing challenges involved with intraplate earthquake investigations and provide a snapshot of the state of the art with current research to advance our understanding.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2024

3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation studies of gas hydrate reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. This study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-step gridding were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a 3-D trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Earthquake recurrence estimates for northern Caribbean faults from combinatorial optimization

We use combinatorial optimization to find the optimal spatial distribution of random samples of earthquakes (≥6.5) that minimize the misfit in target slip rates for all faults in the northeast Caribbean, and we derive magnitude-frequency relationships with uncertainties for these faults. Slip rates for many faults are derived from GPS block models, not direct measurements, because of their underwater locations. Predicted recurrence rates for eastern Hispaniola and Puerto Rico Trench faults are 220-450 yr for M7 and 3-5 kyr for M8, with maximum feasible magnitude of M8.2. The most frequent earthquakes with magnitudes ≥7.0 are predicted on the large upper plate strike-slip faults, Enriquillo (EF) and Septentrional Fault, commensurate with the historical record. Calais et al. (2023) suggested that shortening in western Hispaniola is accommodated on the offshore Jérémie and onshore Malpasse faults north and south of EF, instead of on terrestrial faults in western Hispaniola and EF. Because of our system-modeling approach, such a configuration predicts less frequent earthquakes on EF and on western Hispaniola and Muertos convergent zones. Recurrence times of a few 100s yr for M6.7 earthquakes is predicted on the submerged faults in Mona Passage, and infrequent M>7 earthquakes are predicted on the Virgin Islands faults.

Lesser Antilles↗
USGS2024

Bathymetric and velocimetric surveys at highway bridges crossing the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers on the periphery of Missouri, June 13–22, 2022

Bathymetric and velocimetric data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Transportation, near seven bridges at six highway crossings of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers on the periphery of Missouri from June 13–22, 2022. A multibeam echosounder mapping system was used to obtain channel-bed elevations for river reaches about 1,640 feet longitudinally and generally extending laterally across the active channel from bank to bank during minor flood-flow conditions. These surveys provided channel geometry and hydraulic conditions at the time of the surveys and provided characteristics of scour holes that may be useful in developing or verifying predictive guidelines or equations for computing potential scour depth. These data also may be useful to the Missouri Department of Transportation as a minor flood-flow assessment of the bridges for stability and integrity issues with respect to bridge scour during floods. Bathymetric data were collected around every in-channel pier. Scour holes were present at most piers for which bathymetry could be obtained, except those on banks or surrounded by riprap. Occasionally, scour holes were minor and difficult to discern from nearby dunes and ripples. All bridge sites in this study were surveyed and documented in previous studies. Although partial exposure of substructural support elements was observed at several piers, at most sites the exposure most likely is minimal compared to the overall substructure that remains buried in bed material at these piers. The notable exceptions are piers 12 and 13 at structure L0135 on State Highway 51 at Chester, Illinois, where the bedrock material was fully exposed around the piers. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces between 2022 and 2018 varied from 0.41 foot higher to 1.86 feet lower. Between 2022 and 2014, the average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 1.02 feet higher to 4.69 feet lower. Only the two sites on the Missouri River and the Caruthersville site were surveyed in 2011; for those sites, the average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 5.83 feet higher to 1.34 feet lower. The most substantial overall net gain of sediment in a reach was between 2011 and 2022 at structure A1700 near Caruthersville, Mo. (site 38). This result was expected because structure A1700 is downstream from the confluences of the Missouri and Ohio Rivers, and therefore subject to the largest streamflows, the largest streamflow fluctuations, and the most substantial sediment flux, as has historically been observed at this site. The presence of riprap blankets, pier size and nose shape, and alignment to flow had a substantial effect on the size of the scour hole observed for a given pier. Piers that were surrounded by riprap blankets had scour holes that were substantially smaller (to nonexistent) compared to piers at which no rock or riprap were present. New riprap blankets were surveyed at pier 3 of structure L0098 at Brownville, Nebraska, and at piers 15–18 of structure A1700 near Caruthersville, Mo., that effectively mitigated the scour holes historically observed at these piers. Narrow piers having round or sharp noses that were aligned with flow often had scour holes that were difficult to discern from nearby bed features, whereas piers having wide or blunt noses resulted in larger, deeper scour holes. Several of the structures had piers that were skewed to primary approach flow. Scour holes near these piers consistently displayed greater depth on the side of the pier with impinging flow and deposition on the leeward side of the pier.

Missouri↗
USGS2026

Discrete element investigation of the influence of shallow soil density on the manifestations of strike-slip surface fault rupture

This study investigates the influence of soil relative density on strike-slip surface fault rupture manifestations using three-dimensional numerical simulations performed with the discrete element method (DEM). The simulations capture the formation of distinctive fault strands within complex flower structures using tens of millions of grains. The tendency for dense soils to localize shear manifests as multiple localized shear bands within wide zones of deformation in strike-slip fault rupture, whereas diffuse shear deformation develops within narrow zones in loose soils. The spatial extents of soil deformation are consistent between simulations having similar relative densities but with different quantities of grains. However, individual shears are more distinguishable in assemblages of finer grains than in assemblages of coarser grains. The simulations show the progressive development of new shears within the bounds of previously developed shears. Shear activity transitions inward as fault activity diminishes along the outermost shears and continues along newly developed shears until a vertically dipping throughgoing shear structure develops that accommodates most of the fault displacement thereon. The throughgoing fault develops at smaller fault displacements in looser soils because the first shear rupture propagates closer to the vertical direction and does not undergo as much inward translation of shear activity, as is observed in denser soils. In all simulations, ground surface uplift develops between nonintersecting active shears, and ground surface subsidence tends to develop where new shears intersect previous shears. The surface traces in these simulations are shown to be consistent with analog models and case histories of surface fault rupture occurring in different shallow subsurface materials. Although computationally costly, these modeling results are valuable for providing a strong numerical supplement to traditional analog models used to represent the mechanics of strike-slip zones in soil, and they provide quantifiable stresses and large-strain deformations throughout the model domain.

Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engin↗
USGS2025

Implications of physics-based M9 ground motions on liquefaction-induced damage in the Cascadia Subduction Zone: Looking forward and backward

Given the likelihood of future M9 Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquakes, various estimates of the resulting, regional ground motions have been made, including a suite of 30 physics-based simulations that reflect key modeling uncertainties. However, because the last CSZ interface rupture occurred in 1700 CE, the shaking expected in such an event is especially uncertain, as are the impacts to the built and living environments. Like other coseismic impacts, soil liquefaction poses a significant threat and must be considered by any scenario study used to inform planning and response, or to focus mitigation resources. Liquefaction is also notable for its potential to “ground truth” ground-motion estimates, given that its presence or absence in the geologic record can provide constraint on the intensities of shaking in past events. It is thus an important phenomenon looking both forward and backward. Accordingly, using recent physics-based simulations, this study (1) predicts liquefaction in M9 CSZ ruptures at 400 locations in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia (BC) using an array of cone-penetration-test based models and (2) uses paleoliquefaction evidence at ten sites spanning from Southern Oregon to Vancouver, BC to constrain possible ground-motion intensities experienced in the 1700 CE earthquake. The forward predictions indicate that liquefaction in M9 events could be pervasive in the region and affect numerous population hubs, with the potential for damage across hundreds of square kilometers. The backward analyses suggest that 1700 CE ground-motion intensities may have been less than expected from M9 simulations in some northern portions of the CSZ (e.g. Seattle), given the paucity of 1700 CE liquefaction evidence in these areas. Ultimately, further discovery and analysis of CSZ paleoliquefaction, or lack thereof, will confirm or modify this possibility and the conclusions drawn herein.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2024

Agricultural return flow dynamics on a reach of the East River, Colorado, as assessed by mass balance

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District, studied historical streamflow in a reach of the East River, Colorado, to gain a preliminary understanding of return flow dynamics. Return flow is agricultural irrigation water that is not consumed by evapotranspiration and instead reaches streams by surface and subsurface flow paths. The study reach had a contributing area of 50 square miles and contained 5.23 square miles of pastures irrigated with water diverted from the East River and its tributaries. By comparing upstream inflows to downstream outflows, the net water balance of the study reach from 1994 to 2023 was assessed. Two general hydrologic conditions for the study reach were identified. One hydrologic condition was characterized by a net loss or consumption of water, termed here as general deficit. This general deficit condition extended about 16 years, from 1997 to 2012. During general deficit years, there was usually a notable net loss of streamflow from April through July, and a small net gain, possibly related to return flows, occurred in August about 75 days after the minimums for losses. The second hydrologic condition was characterized by a net gain of water, termed here as general surplus. This second condition extended about 10 years, from 2014 to 2023. During general surplus years, two separate transitions from net loss to net gain commonly occurred during June through August. Losses during general surplus years were smaller than losses during general deficit years, the respective gains were larger, and times between losses and gains were about 18 and 22 days. Differences between the two hydrologic conditions could reflect interactions among irrigation water, available capacity to store additional shallow groundwater, and streamflow. However, deciphering the causes for the shifts between the two general hydrologic conditions was beyond the scope of this report.

Colorado↗