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Improving species status assessments under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and implications for multispecies conservation challenges worldwide

Despite its successes, the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has proven challenging to implement due to funding limitations, workload backlog, and other problems. As threats to species survival intensify and as more species come under threat, the need for the ESA and similar conservation laws and policies in other countries to function efficiently has grown. Attempts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to streamline ESA decisions include multispecies recovery plans and habitat conservation plans. We address species status assessment (SSA), a USFWS process to inform ESA decisions from listing to recovery, within the context of multispecies and ecosystem planning. Although existing SSAs have a single-species focus, ecosystem-based research can efficiently inform multiple SSAs within a region and provide a foundation for transition to multispecies SSAs in the future. We considered at-risk grassland species and ecosystems within the southeastern United States, where a disproportionate number of rare and endemic species are associated with grasslands. To initiate our ecosystem-based approach, we used a combined literature-based and structured World Café workshop format to identify science needs for SSAs. Discussions concentrated on 5 categories of threats to grassland species and ecosystems, consistent with recommendations to make shared threats a focus of planning under the ESA: (1) habitat loss, fragmentation, and disruption of functional connectivity; (2) climate change; (3) altered disturbance regimes; (4) invasive species; and (5) localized impacts. For each threat, workshop participants identified science and information needs, including database availability, research priorities, and modeling and mapping needs. Grouping species by habitat and shared threats can make the SSA process and other planning processes for conservation of at-risk species worldwide more efficient and useful. We found a combination of literature review and structured discussion effective for identifying the scientific information and analysis needed to support the development of multiple SSAs.

Conservation Biology

The dynamic feasibility of resisting (R), accepting (A), or directing (D) ecological change

Ecological transformations are occurring as a result of climate change, challenging traditional approaches to land management decision-making. The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework helps managers consider how to respond to this challenge. We examined how the feasibility of the choices to resist, accept, and direct shifts in complex and dynamic ways through time. We considered 4 distinct types of social feasibility: regulatory, financial, public, and organizational. Our commentary is grounded in literature review and the examples that exist but necessarily has speculative elements because empirical evidence on this newly emerging management strategy is scarce. We expect that resist strategies will become less feasible over time as managers encounter situations where resisting is ecologically, by regulation, financially, or publicly not feasible. Similarly, we expect that as regulatory frameworks increasingly permit their use, if costs decrease, and if the public accepts them, managers will increasingly view accept and direct strategies as more viable options than they do at present. Exploring multiple types of feasibility over time allows consideration of both social and ecological trajectories of change in tandem. Our theorizing suggested that deepening the time horizon of decision-making allows one to think carefully about when one should adopt different approaches and how to combine them over time.

Conservation Biology

Reducing uncertainty in climate change responses of inland fishes: A decision-path approach

Climate change will continue to be an important consideration for conservation practitioners. However, uncertainty in identifying appropriate management strategies, particularly for understudied species and regions, constrains the implementation of science-based solutions and adaptation strategies. Here, we share a decision-path approach to reduce uncertainty in climate change responses of inland fishes to inform conservation and adaptation planning. With the Fish and Climate Change database (FiCli), a comprehensive, online, public database of peer-reviewed literature on documented and projected climate impacts to inland fishes, users can identify relevant studies and associated management recommendations via geographic regions, response types (i.e., fish assemblage dynamics, demographic, distributional, evolutionary, phenological), fish taxa, and traits (e.g., thermal guilds, feeding type, parental care, habitat type) and use a suite of summary tools to make more informed decisions. For both data-rich and data-poor scenarios, we demonstrate that this approach can reduce uncertainty in understanding climate change responses. Using thermal sensitivity as an example, we also establish the utility of FiCli database to address other user-defined, management-relevant questions via supplementary analyses. This decision-path approach can be applied to rapid assessments, management decisions, and policy development and may serve as a model for other conservation decision-making processes.

Conservation Science and Practice

Conserving climate-change refugia: Insights from research and practice

As the impacts of anthropogenic climate change increase, conservation of climate-change refugia has become a key strategy for effective environmental stewardship. Over the last 5 years, the field of climate-change refugia conservation has made exciting advances, shifting from concepts and theory to refugia mapping and implementation. However, few studies have advanced to action on the ground; while 84% of studies identified and mapped refugia, only 4% involved implementing management action. Moreover, taxonomic and geographic gaps remain, with most studies focused on terrestrial plants and vertebrates in Europe and North America. Here, we outline impediments to implementation following the steps of the Climate-Change Refugia Conservation Cycle. Based on a systematic literature review, we elucidate advances and obstacles with examples from a diversity of systems and sectors from across the world and highlight emerging work bridging the gap between research and implementation.

Conservation Science and Practice

Stocking fish in inland waters: Opportunities and risks for sustainable food systems

Stocking is one of the foremost tools in the inland fisheries management toolbox, but it comes with both opportunities and risks. Stocking is often used as compensation for depleted wild populations, particularly where recruitment processes have been disrupted, but it can introduce disease, disrupt community structures, reduce genetic integrity, and cause conflicts between fishery stakeholders. Despite its widespread use, examples of effective stocking for food fisheries in inland waters are sparse in the peer-reviewed literature. Nevertheless, it is well established that stocking is frequently used to maintain fish yield, so there is a need to conduct the practice in a robust manner that minimises the potential risks. This paper serves as the front matter for a special section of Fisheries Management and Ecology focused on fresh waters feeding the world, which resulted from two panel sessions, one focused on aquaculture and one focused on stocking, hosted by the international InFish research network ( https://infish.org/ ). The paper highlights current practices of fish stock enhancement in inland waters for food, examines potential synergies and interactions of stock enhancement programmes with aquaculture, and provides an outline framework for responsible management of fish stock enhancement.

Fisheries Management and Ecology

States and rates: Complementary approaches to developing flow‐ecology relationships

In recognition of the influence of flow on riverine habitats and organisms, stream ecologists have devoted considerable effort to the development of quantitative predictive relationships describing ecological responses to flow variability, i.e. flow‐ecology relationships. Methods used to generate flow‐ecology relationships can be thought of as a continuum bookended by pure states approaches on one end and by rates approaches on the other. In pure states approaches, the ecological response is a snapshot of a condition or property (i.e. a state) derived from a single measurement in time. In contrast, ecological responses in rates approaches reflect temporal change (i.e. a rate) and are thus reliant on repeated measurements made over time. Here, we elaborate on the fundamental characteristics of different approaches (pure states, rates and an intermediate approach we call repeated states) for generating flow‐ecology relationships, examine how commonly the different approaches are used in the flow‐ecology literature, conduct an independent analysis to illustrate the different outcomes achieved by applying repeated‐states and rates approaches using a dataset for stream fish diversity in relation to flow magnitude, and identify some of the different ways ecologists are applying rates approaches in flow ecology. Our literature review revealed that repeated‐states approaches (53% of reviewed studies) were used far more commonly than either pure states (19%) or rates (12%) approaches to generate flow‐ecology relationships. The remaining hybrid studies (17%) used both state and rate responses, and thus also relied on repeated measurements over time. Despite frequent collection of data suitable for rates approaches, flow‐ecology relationships have generally been developed using states approaches that relate changes in ecological states to different long‐term average flow conditions, rather than to specific flow sequences over much shorter time intervals. Such flow‐ecology relationships cannot generate temporally specific predictions of ecological responses to changing flow conditions (i.e. the expected change in state following a specific flow sequence), nor can they describe demographic processes underlying observed changes. While there are different scenarios in which a pure or repeated‐states approach would be useful, more frequent use of rates approaches would increase our ability to test flow‐ecology hypotheses and our mechanistic understanding of flow‐ecology relationships.

Freshwater Biology

Vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to elevated CO 2 and climate change in arid and semiarid western North America

Riparian ecosystems, already greatly altered by water management, land development, and biological invasion, are being further altered by increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations ([CO 2 ]) and climate change, particularly in arid and semiarid (dryland) regions. In this literature review, we (1) summarize expected changes in [CO 2 ], climate, hydrology, and water management in dryland western North America, (2) consider likely effects of those changes on riparian ecosystems, and (3) identify critical knowledge gaps. Temperatures in the region are rising and droughts are becoming more frequent and intense. Warmer temperatures in turn are altering river hydrology: advancing the timing of spring snow melt floods, altering flood magnitudes, and reducing summer and base flows. Direct effects of increased [CO 2 ] and climate change on riparian ecosystems may be similar to effects in uplands, including increased heat and water stress, altered phenology and species geographic distributions, and disrupted trophic and symbiotic interactions. Indirect effects due to climate-driven changes in streamflow, however, may exacerbate the direct effects of warming and increase the relative importance of moisture and fluvial disturbance as drivers of riparian ecosystem response to global change. Together, climate change and climate-driven changes in streamflow are likely to reduce abundance of dominant, native, early-successional tree species, favor herbaceous species and both drought-tolerant and late-successional woody species (including many introduced species), reduce habitat quality for many riparian animals, and slow litter decomposition and nutrient cycling. Climate-driven changes in human water demand and associated water management may intensify these effects. On some regulated rivers, however, reservoir releases could be managed to protect riparian ecosystem. Immediate research priorities include determining riparian species' environmental requirements and monitoring riparian ecosystems to allow rapid detection and response to undesirable ecological change.

Global Change Biology

Conservation of the Yellowstone grizzly bear

We review literature relevant to the conservation of Yellowstone's grizzly bear population and appraise the bear's long-term viability. We conclude that the population is isolated and vulnerable to epidemic perturbation and that the carrying capacity of the habitat is likely to shift downward under conditions of climate change. Viability analyses based on the assumption that future habitats will closely resemble those existing at present have limited applicability; more information is needed on the autecology of important bear foods and on the implications of landscape-scale changes for bear population dynamics. Optimism over prospects of long-term persistence for Yellowstone's grizzly bears does not seem to be warranted and management of this population should be conservative and not unduly swayed on short-term positive trends.

Yellowstone National Park

Arsenic in ground water of the Western United States

Natural occurrences of ground water with moderate (10 to 50 micrograms per liter) to high (greater than 50 micrograms per liter) concentrations of arsenic are common throughout much of the Western United States. High concentrations of arsenic are generally associated with one of four geochemical environments: (1) basin-fill deposits of alluvial-lacustrine origin, particularly in semiarid areas, (2) volcanic deposits, (3) geothermal systems, and (4) uranium and gold-mining areas. These findings are based on an extensive literature review, compilation of unpublished reports and data, and the review of data bases containing more than 7,000 analyses of ground-water samples for arsenic. In the first two environments, arsenic appears to be associated with sediments derived, in part, from volcanic rocks of intermediate to acidic composition. Dissolved arsenic concentrations in water from volcanic aquifers in the same regions, however, may be low (less than 10 micrograms per liter). Solid phases (minerals, amorphous solids, and sedimentary organic matter) that supply the dissolved arsenic have not been identified in most areas. Alluvial and lacustrine sedimentary deposits appear to be an important source of arsenic in volcanic areas (such as Lane County, Oregon) and in areas underlain by basin-fill deposits (such as Carson Desert in Nevada and the Tulare Lake basin in California). Mobilization of arsenic in sedimentary aquifers may be, in part, a result of changes in the geochemical environment due to agricultural irrigation. In the deeper subsurface, elevated arsenic concentrations are associated with compaction caused by groundwater withdrawals.

Groundwater

Historic coregonine habitat use and assessment of larval nursery locations in Lake Erie

Coregonine fishes (Coregonus spp.) are important components of Great Lake food webs and support lucrative commercial and recreational fisheries. Due to a combination of several factors including habitat loss, over-exploitation, and introduction of exotic species, the distribution and abundance of coregonines have been reduced. Examples of these declines are evident in Lake Erie where cisco (C. artedi) have been nearly extirpated, and lake whitefish (C. clupeaformis), while still abundant, are declining. To identify key habitat locations of coregonines in Lake Erie, we conducted a literature review of historical spawning, nursery, and adult habitat sites where coregonines have been observed. We used these sites as a reference for larval sampling at six locations across the southern shore of Lake Erie during spring 2017. Paired bongo samplers were used to collect larvae, and average densities were calculated for comparison across sites. Larval coregonine (46 visually identified as lake whitefish; 8 classified as coregonines) densities were highest at Huron, OH (0.880/1,000 m3 ± 1.61), followed by Sandusky, OH (0.426/1,000 m3 ± 1.05), Dunkirk, NY (0.208/1,000 m3 ± 0.703), Fairport, OH (0.185/1,000 m3 ± 0.680), Erie, PA (0.120/1,000 m3 ± 0.532), and Conneaut, OH (0.1196/1,000 m3 ± 0.528). Using contemporary sampling data coupled with historical spawning locations, we identified sites that are currently being used as nursery locations by lake whitefish. By validating the contemporary use of historic spawning and nursery sites, this study identifies locations where habitat protection and restoration or future stocking of coregonids could be conducted in Lake Erie in efforts to recover populations and improve fishery production.

Lake Erie

Volcanism and tectonics of young basaltic fields in the eastern California shear zone, California, USA

Circa 12 Ma, there was a fundamental reorganization of magmatism and tectonics in the Mojave Desert, California, USA, from basaltic to rhyolitic fields associated with extensional tectonics to dispersed basaltic monogenetic fields associated with the northwest- or east-striking strike-slip faults. The broad zone of strike-slip faults associated with the San Andreas transform margin stretched east to Arizona, but the high slip-rate central part that is known as the Quaternary eastern California shear zone is the locus of the post–12 Ma volcanism. We compiled a literature review of 29 basaltic fields, conducted detailed and reconnaissance study of several fields, and conducted geochemistry on many. Most of the volcanic fields are near or cut by the long fault systems, but more importantly, in nearly two-thirds of the fields that have scoria cones, the cones are <1 km from one of these faults. Eighteen volcanic fields have geochemistry data, and of the 441 analyses of major elements, 286 are new U.S. Geological Survey data that include comprehensive trace elements. The data are used to compare fields and determine the compositional variations during the formation of each field. Comparisons between fields show that several nearby volcanic fields have similar geochemical compositions and trends compared to distant fields; we suggest that six magmatic clusters formed, some with 200–300 k.y. duration. Spatial patterns change over the 12 m.y. span, with early fields forming in the north and south and the youngest in a central area from Pisgah to Amboy fields. The volume of magma also changed, most notably with a sixfold increase ca. 4 Ma followed by a 2–3 m.y. quiescence. In addition to the fracture control provided by strike-slip faults as magma conduits, we advance arguments for shear melting in the mantle along the most active faults, with secondary controls of local tectonic interactions, to explain spatial and temporal patterns in the fields.

California

Threshold changes in winter temperature and precipitation drive threshold responses across nine global climate zones and associated biomes

Globally, winter temperatures are rising, and snowpack is shrinking or disappearing entirely. Despite previous research and published literature reviews, it remains unknown whether biomes across the globe will cross important thresholds in winter temperature and precipitation that will lead to significant ecological changes. Here, we combine the widely used Köppen–Geiger climate classification system with worst-case-scenario projected changes in global monthly temperature and precipitation to illustrate how multiple climatic zones across Earth may experience shifting winter conditions by the end of this century. We then examine how these shifts may affect ecosystems within corresponding biomes. Our analysis demonstrates potential widespread losses of extreme cold (<−20°C) in Arctic, boreal, and cool temperate regions. We also show the possible disappearance of freezing temperatures (<0°C) and large decreases in snowfall in warm temperate and dryland areas. We identify important and potentially irreversible ecological changes associated with crossing these winter climate thresholds.

Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systemati

Climate change, coral loss, and the curious case of the parrotfish paradigm: Why don't marine protected areas improve reef resilience?

Scientists have advocated for local interventions, such as creating marine protected areas and implementing fishery restrictions, as ways to mitigate local stressors to limit the effects of climate change on reef-building corals. However, in a literature review, we find little empirical support for the notion of managed resilience. We outline some reasons for why marine protected areas and the protection of herbivorous fish (especially parrotfish) have had little effect on coral resilience. One key explanation is that the impacts of local stressors (e.g., pollution and fishing) are often swamped by the much greater effect of ocean warming on corals. Another is the sheer complexity (including numerous context dependencies) of the five cascading links assumed by the managed-resilience hypothesis. If reefs cannot be saved by local actions alone, then it is time to face reef degradation head-on, by directly addressing anthropogenic climate change—the root cause of global coral decline.

Annual Review of Marine Science

Wildfire risk and hazardous fuel reduction treatments along the US-Mexico border: A review of the science (1985-2019)

The ecosystems along the border between the United States and Mexico are at increasing risk to wildfire due to interactions among climate, land-use, and fuel loads. A wide range of fuel treatments have been implemented to mitigate wildfire and its threats to valued resources, yet we have little information about treatment effectiveness. To fill critical knowledge gaps, we reviewed wildfire risk and fuel treatment studies that were conducted near the US-Mexico border and published in the peer-reviewed literature between 1986 and 2019. The number of studies has grown during this time in warm desert to forest ecosystems on primarily federal lands. The most common study topics included fire effects on native species, the role of invasive species and woody encroachment on wildfire risk, historical fire regimes, and remote sensing and modeling to study wildfire risk across the landscape. A majority of fuel treatment studies focused on prescribed burns, and fuel treatments collectively had mixed effects on mitigating future wildfire risk and threats to ecosystems depending on vegetation and fire characteristics. The diversity of ecosystems and land ownership along the US-Mexico border present unique challenges for understanding and managing wildfire risk, and also create opportunities for collaboration and cross-site studies to promote knowledge across broad environmental gradients.

Arizona, California, New Mexico, Texas

PDCD-DAT: A global database of pyroclastic density current deposit field data

Pyroclastic density currents represent one of the deadliest hazards posed by active volcanoes. Analysis of their deposits provides valuable insights into their internal dynamics and informs numerical simulations of pyroclastic density currents which underpin many volcanic hazard assessments. We present PDCD-DAT, a global database of pyroclastic density current deposit characteristics compiled from peer-reviewed literature. The database includes both quantitative datasets (e.g., grain size, density, bedform dimensions, thickness) and qualitative descriptors (e.g., sedimentary structures, lithofacies). PDCD-DAT includes data from 85 source publications, covering 97 eruptions or eruptive phases, and 214 individual depositional units from 55 globally distributed volcanoes. Eruptions recorded in the database range from VEI 1–8. We highlight examples of potential applications of the database, which include (i) comparison of single deposit case studies to global datasets, (ii) informing input parameters and conditions for numerical and analogue models of pyroclastic density currents, (iii) validation of numerical and analogue models against a wide variety of natural case study deposit architectures, and (iv) estimating hazard impact metrics of pyroclastic density currents from past eruptions. We show that the database represents a useful tool for improving our ability to model pyroclastic density currents, predict their associated hazards, and understand the relationships between the internal dynamics of pyroclastic density currents and the properties of their deposits. PDCD-DAT is integrated with the FlowDat Mass Flow Database, which provides a sustainable platform for the database. We aim for PDCD-DAT to be expanded in the future through addition of pyroclastic density current deposit datasets from new field studies conducted by the volcanology research community.

Journal of Applied Volcanology

Effects of recent wildfires on giant sequoia groves were anomalous at millennial timescales: a response to Hanson et al.

Background The giant sequoia ( Sequoiadendron giganteum [Lindley] Buchholz) of California’s Sierra Nevada recently suffered historically unprecedented wildfires that killed an estimated 13–19% of seed-bearing sequoias across their native range. Hanson et al. recently sought to characterize post-fire reproduction in two severely burned sequoia groves, but their two papers (1) inaccurately portrayed sequoia fire ecology, (2) had methodological flaws, and (3) without supporting evidence, questioned efforts to prevent large, stand-replacing wildfires and to plant sequoia seedlings in areas of low post-fire regeneration. Results Our analyses and literature review contradict many of Hanson et al.’s claims and implications. First, evidence indicates that preceding the recent wildfires, large, contiguous areas (>10 to >100 ha) of fire severe enough to kill most sequoias had been absent for at least a millennium, and probably much longer. The ancient sequoia fire regime was instead overwhelmingly dominated by surface fires in which most forest area burned at low or moderate severity interspersed with small forest gaps (hundredths of a hectare to a few hectares) created by local patches of higher-severity fire, within which most mature sequoias survived and most successful reproduction occurred. Prescribed fires have typically mimicked ancient fires and induced adequate sequoia regeneration. In contrast, in some extensive areas where recent wildfires killed most (or all) mature sequoias, regeneration has been well below historical levels, threatening a net loss of sequoia grove area. Methodologically, Hanson et al. reported sixfold greater post-fire sequoia seedling densities than others who sampled the same area; our assessments suggest their higher densities may have largely resulted from plot-placement bias. Finally, Hanson et al.’s comparisons of median seedling densities were inappropriate. Conclusions Hanson et al. questioned efforts to prevent large, high-severity wildfires in sequoia groves but did not acknowledge (1) that past fires sustained sequoia reproduction without the deaths of large fractions of mature sequoias, (2) the anomalous effects of recent wildfires, and (3) the acute conservation threat of losing large fractions of seed-bearing sequoias. Hanson et al.’s further implication, made without supporting evidence, that decisions to plant sequoia seedlings may be unwarranted ignores research showing that recent post-wildfire regeneration has often been well below historical levels.

California

Sampling strategies and biodiversity of influenza A subtypes in wild birds

Wild aquatic birds are recognized as the natural reservoir of avian influenza A viruses (AIV), but across high and low pathogenic AIV strains, scientists have yet to rigorously identify most competent hosts for the various subtypes. We examined 11,870 GenBank records to provide a baseline inventory and insight into patterns of global AIV subtype diversity and richness. Further, we conducted an extensive literature review and communicated directly with scientists to accumulate data from 50 non-overlapping studies and over 250,000 birds to assess the status of historic sampling effort. We then built virus subtype sample-based accumulation curves to better estimate sample size targets that capture a specific percentage of virus subtype richness at seven sampling locations. Our study identifies a sampling methodology that will detect an estimated 75% of circulating virus subtypes from a targeted bird population and outlines future surveillance and research priorities that are needed to explore the influence of host and virus biodiversity on emergence and transmission.

PLoS ONE

Carnivore hotspots in Peninsular Malaysia and their landscape attributes

Mammalian carnivores play a vital role in ecosystem functioning. However, they are prone to extinction because of low population densities and growth rates, and high levels of persecution or exploitation. In tropical biodiversity hotspots such as Peninsular Malaysia, rapid conversion of natural habitats threatens the persistence of this vulnerable group of animals. Here, we carried out the first comprehensive literature review on 31 carnivore species reported to occur in Peninsular Malaysia and updated their probable distribution. We georeferenced 375 observations of 28 species of carnivore from 89 unique geographic locations using records spanning 1948 to 2014. Using the Getis-Ord Gi*statistic and weighted survey records by IUCN Red List status, we identified hotspots of species that were of conservation concern and built regression models to identify environmental and anthropogenic landscape factors associated with Getis-Ord Gi* z scores. Our analyses identified two carnivore hotspots that were spatially concordant with two of the peninsula’s largest and most contiguous forest complexes, associated with Taman Negara National Park and Royal Belum State Park. A cold spot overlapped with the southwestern region of the Peninsula, reflecting the disappearance of carnivores with higher conservation rankings from increasingly fragmented natural habitats. Getis-Ord Gi* z scores were negatively associated with elevation, and positively associated with the proportion of natural land cover and distance from the capital city. Malaysia contains some of the world’s most diverse carnivore assemblages, but recent rates of forest loss are some of the highest in the world. Reducing poaching and maintaining large, contiguous tracts of lowland forests will be crucial, not only for the persistence of threatened carnivores, but for many mammalian species in general.

PLoS ONE