Seismicity zoning at Coso geothermal field and stress changes from fluid production and migration

Abstract

The Coso geothermal field is a major geothermal power production site in the western United States. It has been observed that low-magnitude seismic events ( M < 3.71) are unevenly distributed in three distinct zones, namely, nearfield (<3 km), midfield (3–6 km), and farfield (> 6 km) from the Coso geothermal plant. These zones exhibit distinct changes in earthquake location before and during geothermal production episodes that began in 1986. After 1986, the midfield region of the main flank experiences a significantly lower seismicity rate than the surrounding areas before production episodes. During 2014–2019, the farfield earthquakes cluster in the eastern and western parts of the greater Coso area, which is discernably different from how those pre-production earthquake events were distributed along the conjugate NW-SE and SW-NW trending structures across the main flank. Here, we analyze the stage of stress with finite-element-based poroelastic simulations to illustrate how the spatiotemporal evolution of the seismicity is associated with the pattern of stress perturbations caused by fluid migration amid the operations of geothermal power plants. Generally, ∼70% of co-production seismicity is found in zones of increased Coulomb stress between 2014 and 2019 at >99% confidence. Meanwhile, the midfield zone of seismic paucity overlaps with the zone of decreasing pore-fluid pressure. Overall, the results provide a physical explanation of how decadal geothermal operations at Coso have perturbed stress-field changes and contributed to the evolving characteristic seismic pattern, shedding insights into assessing the seismic hazard in other geothermal settings.