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Timothy Masterlark

Publications and source records attributed to Timothy Masterlark.

18 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2024

Seismicity zoning at Coso geothermal field and stress changes from fluid production and migration

The Coso geothermal field is a major geothermal power production site in the western United States. It has been observed that low-magnitude seismic events ( M < 3.71) are unevenly distributed in three distinct zones, namely, nearfield (<3 km), midfield (3–6 km), and farfield (> 6 km) from the Coso geothermal plant. These zones exhibit distinct changes in earthquake location before and during geothermal production episodes that began in 1986. After 1986, the midfield region of the main flank experiences a significantly lower seismicity rate than the surrounding areas before production episodes. During 2014–2019, the farfield earthquakes cluster in the eastern and western parts of the greater Coso area, which is discernably different from how those pre-production earthquake events were distributed along the conjugate NW-SE and SW-NW trending structures across the main flank. Here, we analyze the stage of stress with finite-element-based poroelastic simulations to illustrate how the spatiotemporal evolution of the seismicity is associated with the pattern of stress perturbations caused by fluid migration amid the operations of geothermal power plants. Generally, ∼70% of co-production seismicity is found in zones of increased Coulomb stress between 2014 and 2019 at >99% confidence. Meanwhile, the midfield zone of seismic paucity overlaps with the zone of decreasing pore-fluid pressure. Overall, the results provide a physical explanation of how decadal geothermal operations at Coso have perturbed stress-field changes and contributed to the evolving characteristic seismic pattern, shedding insights into assessing the seismic hazard in other geothermal settings.

California↗
USGS2016

Volcano deformation source parameters estimated from InSAR: Sensitivities to uncertainties in seismic tomography

The eruption cycle of a volcano is controlled in part by the upward migration of magma. The characteristics of the magma flux produce a deformation signature at the Earth's surface. Inverse analyses use geodetic data to estimate strategic controlling parameters that describe the position and pressurization of a magma chamber at depth. The specific distribution of material properties controls how observed surface deformation translates to source parameter estimates. Seismic tomography models describe the spatial distributions of material properties that are necessary for accurate models of volcano deformation. This study investigates how uncertainties in seismic tomography models propagate into variations in the estimates of volcano deformation source parameters inverted from geodetic data. We conduct finite element model-based nonlinear inverse analyses of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data for Okmok volcano, Alaska, as an example. We then analyze the estimated parameters and their uncertainties to characterize the magma chamber. Analyses are performed separately for models simulating a pressurized chamber embedded in a homogeneous domain as well as for a domain having a heterogeneous distribution of material properties according to seismic tomography. The estimated depth of the source is sensitive to the distribution of material properties. The estimated depths for the homogeneous and heterogeneous domains are 2666 ± 42 and 3527 ± 56 m below mean sea level, respectively (99% confidence). A Monte Carlo analysis indicates that uncertainties of the seismic tomography cannot account for this discrepancy at the 99% confidence level. Accounting for the spatial distribution of elastic properties according to seismic tomography significantly improves the fit of the deformation model predictions and significantly influences estimates for parameters that describe the location of a pressurized magma chamber.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2011

Pore-fluid migration and the timing of the 2005 M8.7 Nias earthquake

Two great earthquakes have occurred recently along the Sunda Trench, the 2004 M9.2 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and the 2005 M8.7 Nias earthquake. These earthquakes ruptured over 1600 km of adjacent crust within 3 mo of each other. We quantitatively present poroelastic deformation analyses suggesting that postseismic fluid flow and recovery induced by the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake advanced the timing of the Nias earthquake. Simple back-slip simulations indicate that the megapascal (MPa)–scale pore-pressure recovery is equivalent to 7 yr of interseismic Coulomb stress accumulation near the Nias earthquake hypocenter, implying that pore-pressure recovery of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake advanced the timing of the Nias earthquake by ∼7 yr. That is, in the absence of postseismic pore-pressure recovery, we predict that the Nias earthquake would have occurred in 2011 instead of 2005.

Lithosphere↗
USGS2010

Rheologic and structural controls on the deformation of Okmok volcano, Alaska: FEMs, InSAR, and ambient noise tomography

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data indicate that the caldera of Okmok volcano, Alaska, subsided more than a meter during its eruption in 1997. The large deformation suggests a relatively shallow magma reservoir beneath Okmok. Seismic tomography using ambient ocean noise reveals two low‐velocity zones (LVZs). The shallow LVZ corresponds to a region of weak, fluid‐saturated materials within the caldera and extends from the caldera surface to a depth of 2 km. The deep LVZ clearly indicates the presence of the magma reservoir beneath Okmok that is significantly deeper (>4 km depth) compared to previous geodetic‐based estimates (3 km depth). The deep LVZ associated with the magma reservoir suggests magma remains in a molten state between eruptions. We construct finite element models (FEMs) to simulate deformation caused by mass extraction from a magma reservoir that is surrounded by a viscoelastic rind of country rock embedded in an elastic domain that is partitioned to account for the weak caldera materials observed with tomography. This configuration allows us to reduce the estimated magma reservoir depressurization to within lithostatic constraints, while simultaneously maintaining the magnitude of deformation required to predict the InSAR data. More precisely, the InSAR data are best predicted by an FEM simulating a rind viscosity of 7.5 × 10 16 Pa s and a mass flux of −4.2 × 10 9 kg/d from the magma reservoir. The shallow weak layer within the caldera provides a coeruption stress regime and neutral buoyancy horizon that support lateral magma propagation from the central magma reservoir to extrusion near the rim of the caldera.

Alaska↗
USGS2010

Poroelastic stress-triggering of the 2005 M8.7 Nias earthquake by the 2004 M9.2 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake

The M9.2 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (SAE) occurred three months prior to the M8.7 Nias earthquake (NE). We propose that the NE was mechanically triggered by the SAE, and that poroelastic effects were a major component of this triggering. This study uses 3D finite element models (FEMs) of the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone (SASZ) to predict the deformation, stress, and pore pressure fields of the SAE. The coseismic slip distribution for the SAE is calibrated to near-field GPS data using FEM-generated Green's Functions and linear inverse methods. The calibrated FEM is then used to predict the postseismic poroelastic contribution to stress-triggering along the rupture surface of the NE, which is adjacent to the southern margin of the SAE. The coseismic deformation of the SAE, combined with the rheologic configuration of the SASZ produces two transient fluid flow regimes having separate time constants. SAE coseismic pore pressures in the relatively shallow forearc and volcanic arc regions (within a few km depth) dissipate within one month after the SAE. However, pore pressures in the oceanic crust of the down-going slab persist several months after the SAE. Predictions suggest that the SAE initially induced MPa-scale negative pore pressure near the hypocenter of the NE. This pore pressure slowly recovered (increased) during the three-month interval separating the SAE and NE due to lateral migration of pore fluids, driven by coseismic pressure gradients, within the subducting oceanic crust. Because pore pressure is a fundamental component of Coulomb stress, the MPa-scale increase in pore pressure significantly decreased stability of the NE fault during the three-month interval after the SAE and prior to rupture of the NE. A complete analysis of stress-triggering due to the SAE must include a poroelastic component. Failure to include poroelastic mechanics will lead to an incomplete model that cannot account for the time interval between the SAE and NE. Our transient poroelastic model explains both the spatial and temporal characteristics of triggering of the NE by the SAE.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2006

Thickness distribution of a cooling pyroclastic flow deposit on Augustine Volcano, Alaska: Optimization using InSAR, FEMs, and an adaptive mesh algorithm

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) imagery documents the consistent subsidence, during the interval 1992–1999, of a pyroclastic flow deposit (PFD) emplaced during the 1986 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska. We construct finite element models (FEMs) that simulate thermoelastic contraction of the PFD to account for the observed subsidence. Three-dimensional problem domains of the FEMs include a thermoelastic PFD embedded in an elastic substrate. The thickness of the PFD is initially determined from the difference between post- and pre-eruption digital elevation models (DEMs). The initial excess temperature of the PFD at the time of deposition, 640 °C, is estimated from FEM predictions and an InSAR image via standard least-squares inverse methods. Although the FEM predicts the major features of the observed transient deformation, systematic prediction errors (RMSE = 2.2 cm) are most likely associated with errors in the a priori PFD thickness distribution estimated from the DEM differences. We combine an InSAR image, FEMs, and an adaptive mesh algorithm to iteratively optimize the geometry of the PFD with respect to a minimized misfit between the predicted thermoelastic deformation and observed deformation. Prediction errors from an FEM, which includes an optimized PFD geometry and the initial excess PFD temperature estimated from the least-squares analysis, are sub-millimeter (RMSE = 0.3 mm). The average thickness (9.3 m), maximum thickness (126 m), and volume (2.1 × 10 7 m 3 ) of the PFD, estimated using the adaptive mesh algorithm, are about twice as large as the respective estimations for the a priori PFD geometry. Sensitivity analyses suggest unrealistic PFD thickness distributions are required for initial excess PFD temperatures outside of the range 500–800 °C.

Alaska↗
USGS2006

Constraints on the mechanism of long-term, steady subsidence at Medicine Lake volcano, northern California, from GPS, leveling, and InSAR

Leveling surveys across Medicine Lake volcano (MLV) have documented subsidence that is centered on the summit caldera and decays symmetrically on the flanks of the edifice. Possible mechanisms for this deformation include fluid withdrawal from a subsurface reservoir, cooling/crystallization of subsurface magma, loading by the volcano and dense intrusions, and crustal thinning due to tectonic extension (Dzurisin et al., 1991 [Dzurisin, D., Donnelly-Nolan, J.M., Evans, J.R., Walter, S.R., 1991. Crustal subsidence, seismicity, and structure near Medicine Lake Volcano, California. Journal of Geophysical Research 96, 16, 319-16, 333.]; Dzurisin et al., 2002 [Dzurisin, D., Poland, M.P., Bürgmann, R., 2002. Steady subsidence of Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California, revealed by repeated leveling surveys. Journal of Geophysical Research 107, 2372, doi:10.1029/2001JB000893.]). InSAR data that approximate vertical displacements are similar to the leveling results; however, vertical deformation data alone are not sufficient to distinguish between source mechanisms. Horizontal displacements from GPS were collected in the Mt. Shasta/MLV region in 1996, 1999, 2000, 2003, and 2004. These results suggest that the region is part of the western Oregon block that is rotating about an Euler pole in eastern Oregon. With this rotation removed, most sites in the network have negligible velocities except for those near MLV caldera. There, measured horizontal velocities are less than predicted from ∼10 km deep point and dislocation sources of volume loss based on the leveling data; therefore volumetric losses simulated by these sources are probably not causing the observed subsidence at MLV. This result demonstrates that elastic models of subsurface volume change can provide misleading results where additional geophysical and geological constraints are unavailable, or if only vertical deformation is known. The deformation source must be capable of causing broad vertical deformation with comparatively smaller horizontal displacements. Thermoelastic contraction of a column of hot rock beneath the volcano cannot reproduce the observed ratio of vertical to horizontal surface displacements. Models that determine deformation due to loading by the volcano and dense intrusions can be made to fit the pattern of vertical displacements by assuming a weak upper crust beneath MLV, though the subsidence rates due to surface loading must be lower than the observed displacements. Tectonic extension is almost certainly occurring based on fault orientations and focal mechanisms, but does not appear to be a major contributor to the observed deformation. We favor a model that includes a combination of sources, including extension and loading of a hot weak crust with thermal contraction of a cooling mass of rock beneath MLV, which are processes that are probably occurring at MLV. Future microgravity surveys and the planned deployment of an array of continuous GPS stations as part of a Plate Boundary Observatory volcano cluster will help to refine this model.

California↗
USGS2006

On the absence of InSAR-detected volcano deformation spanning the 1995-1996 and 1999 eruptions of Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska

Shishaldin Volcano, a large, frequently active basaltic-andesite volcano located on Unimak Island in the Aleutian Arc of Alaska, had a minor eruption in 1995–1996 and a VEI 3 sub-Plinian basaltic eruption in 1999. We used 21 synthetic aperture radar images acquired by ERS-1, ERS-2, JERS-1, and RADARSAT-1 satellites to construct 12 coherent interferograms that span most of the 1993–2003 time interval. All interferograms lack coherence within ∼5 km of the summit, primarily due to persistent snow and ice cover on the edifice. Remarkably, in the 5–15 km distance range where interferograms are coherent, the InSAR images show no intrusion- or withdrawal-related deformation at Shishaldin during this entire time period. However, several InSAR images do show deformation associated with a shallow M L 5.2 earthquake located ∼14 km west of Shishaldin that occurred 6 weeks before the 1999 eruption. We use a theoretical model to predict deformation magnitudes due to a volumetric expansion source having a volume equivalent to the 1999 erupted volume, and find that deformation magnitudes for sources shallower than 10 km are within the expected detection capabilities for interferograms generated from C-band ERS 1/2 and RADARSAT-1 synthetic aperture radar images. We also find that InSAR images cannot resolve relatively shallow deformation sources (1–2 km below sea level) due to spatial gaps in the InSAR images caused by lost coherence. The lack of any deformation, particularly for the 1999 eruption, leads us to speculate that magma feeding eruptions at the summit moves rapidly (at least 80m/day) from > 10 km depth, and that the intrusion–eruption cycle at Shishaldin does not produce significant permanent deformation at the surface.

Alaska↗
USGS2005

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar study of Okmok volcano, Alaska, 1992-2003: Magma supply dynamics and postemplacement lava flow deformation

Okmok volcano, located in the central Aleutian arc, Alaska, is a dominantly basaltic complex topped with a 10-km-wide caldera that formed circa 2.05 ka. Okmok erupted several times during the 20th century, most recently in 1997; eruptions in 1945, 1958, and 1997 produced lava flows within the caldera. We used 80 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images (interferograms) to study transient deformation of the volcano before, during, and after the 1997 eruption. Point source models suggest that a magma reservoir at a depth of 3.2 km below sea level, located beneath the center of the caldera and about 5 km northeast of the 1997 vent, is responsible for observed volcano-wide deformation. The preeruption uplift rate decreased from about 10 cm yr −1 during 1992–1993 to 2 ∼ 3 cm yr −1 during 1993–1995 and then to about −1 ∼ −2 cm yr −1 during 1995–1996. The posteruption inflation rate generally decreased with time during 1997–2001, but increased significantly during 2001–2003. By the summer of 2003, 30 ∼ 60% of the magma volume lost from the reservoir in the 1997 eruption had been replenished. Interferograms for periods before the 1997 eruption indicate consistent subsidence of the surface of the 1958 lava flows, most likely due to thermal contraction. Interferograms for periods after the eruption suggest at least four distinct deformation processes: (1) volcano-wide inflation due to replenishment of the shallow magma reservoir, (2) subsidence of the 1997 lava flows, most likely due to thermal contraction, (3) deformation of the 1958 lava flows due to loading by the 1997 flows, and (4) continuing subsidence of 1958 lava flows buried beneath 1997 flows. Our results provide insights into the postemplacement behavior of lava flows and have cautionary implications for the interpretation of inflation patterns at active volcanoes.

Alaska↗
USGS2004

Transient volcano deformation sources imaged with interferometric synthetic aperture radar: Application to Seguam Island, Alaska

Thirty interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images, spanning various intervals during 1992&ndash;2000, document coeruptive and posteruptive deformation of the 1992&ndash;1993 eruption on Seguam Island, Alaska. A procedure that combines standard damped least squares inverse methods and collective surfaces, identifies three dominant amorphous clusters of deformation point sources. Predictions generated from these three point source clusters account for both the spatial and temporal complexity of the deformation patterns of the InSAR data. Regularized time series of source strength attribute a distinctive transient behavior to each of the three source clusters. A model that combines magma influx, thermoelastic relaxation, poroelastic effects, and petrologic data accounts for the transient, interrelated behavior of the source clusters and the observed deformation. Basaltic magma pulses, which flow into a storage chamber residing in the lower crust, drive this deformational system. A portion of a magma pulse is injected into the upper crust and remains in storage during both coeruption and posteruption intervals. This injected magma degasses and the volatile products accumulate in a shallow poroelastic storage chamber. During the eruption, another portion of the magma pulse is transported directly to the surface via a conduit roughly centered beneath Pyre Peak on the west side of the island. A small amount of this magma remains in storage during the eruption, and posteruption thermoelastic contraction ensues. This model, made possible by the excellent spatial and temporal coverage of the InSAR data, reveals a relatively simple system of interrelated predictable processes driven by magma dynamics.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2004

Mapping recent lava flows at Westdahl Volcano, Alaska, using radar and optical satellite imagery

Field mapping of young lava flows at Aleutian volcanoes is logistically difficult, and the utility of optical images from aircraft or satellites for this purpose is greatly reduced by persistent cloud cover. These factors have hampered earlier estimates of the areas and volumes of three young lava flows at Westdahl Volcano, including its most recent (1991–1992) flow. We combined information from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images with multispectral Landsat-7 data to differentiate the 1991–1992 flow from the 1964 flow and a pre-1964 flow, and to calculate the flow areas (8.4, 9.2, and 7.3 km 2 , respectively). By differencing a digital elevation model (DEM) from the 1970–1980s with a DEM from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) in February 2000, we estimated the average thickness of the 1991–1992 flow to be 13 m, which reasonably agrees with field observations (5–10 m). Lava-flow maps produced in this way can be used to facilitate field mapping and flow-hazards assessment, and to study magma-supply dynamics and thus to anticipate future eruptive activity. Based on the recurrence interval of recent eruptions and the results of this study, the next eruption at Westdahl may occur before the end of this decade.

Alaska↗
USGS2003

Finite element model predictions of static deformation from dislocation sources in a subduction zone: Sensitivities to homogeneous, isotropic, Poisson-solid, and half-space assumptions

Dislocation models can simulate static deformation caused by slip along a fault. These models usually take the form of a dislocation embedded in a homogeneous, isotropic, Poisson-solid half-space (HIPSHS). However, the widely accepted HIPSHS assumptions poorly approximate subduction zone systems of converging oceanic and continental crust. This study uses three-dimensional finite element models (FEMs) that allow for any combination (including none) of the HIPSHS assumptions to compute synthetic Green's functions for displacement. Using the 1995 Mw = 8.0 Jalisco-Colima, Mexico, subduction zone earthquake and associated measurements from a nearby GPS array as an example, FEM-generated synthetic Green's functions are combined with standard linear inverse methods to estimate dislocation distributions along the subduction interface. Loading a forward HIPSHS model with dislocation distributions, estimated from FEMs that sequentially relax the HIPSHS assumptions, yields the sensitivity of predicted displacements to each of the HIPSHS assumptions. For the subduction zone models tested and the specific field situation considered, sensitivities to the individual Poisson-solid, isotropy, and homogeneity assumptions can be substantially greater than GPS. measurement uncertainties. Forward modeling quantifies stress coupling between the Mw = 8.0 earthquake and a nearby Mw = 6.3 earthquake that occurred 63 days later. Coulomb stress changes predicted from static HIPSHS models cannot account for the 63-day lag time between events. Alternatively, an FEM that includes a poroelastic oceanic crust, which allows for postseismic pore fluid pressure recovery, can account for the lag time. The pore fluid pressure recovery rate puts an upper limit of 10-17 m2 on the bulk permeability of the oceanic crust. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2003

Magma supply dynamics at Westdahl volcano, Alaska, modeled from satellite radar interferometry

A group of satellite radar interferograms that span the time period from 1991 to 2000 shows that Westdahl volcano, Alaska, deflated during its 1991-1992 eruption and is reinflating at a rate that could produce another eruption within the next several years. The rates of inflation and deflation are approximated by exponential decay functions having time constants of about 6 years and a few days, respectively. This behavior is consistent with a deep, constant-pressure magma source connected to a shallow reservoir by a magma-filled conduit. An elastic deformation model indicates that the reservoir is located about 6 km below sea level and beneath Westdahl Peak. We propose that the magma flow rate through the conduit is governed by the pressure gradient between the deep source and the reservoir. The pressure gradient, and hence the flow rate, are greatest immediately after eruptions. Pressurization of the reservoir decreases both the pressure gradient and the flow rate, but eventually the reservoir ruptures and an eruption or intrusion ensues. The eruption rate is controlled partly by the pressure gradient between the reservoir and surface, and therefore it, too, decreases with time. When the supply of eruptible magma is exhausted, the eruption stops, the reservoir begins to repressurize at a high rate, and the cycle repeats. This model might also be appropriate for other frequently active volcanoes with stable magma sources and relatively simple magma storage systems.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2002

Subsidence at Kiska volcano, Western Aleutians, detected by satellite radar interferometry

Sequential interferometric synthetic aperture radar images of Kiska, the westernmost historically active volcano in the Aleutian arc, show that a circular area about 3 km in diameter centered near the summit subsided by as much as 10 cm from 1995 to 2001, mostly during 1999 and 2000. An elastic Mogi-type deformation model suggests that the source is within 1 km of the surface. Based on the shallow source depth, the copious amounts of steam during recent eruptions, and recent field reports of vigorous steaming and persistent ground shaking near the summit area, we attribute the subsidence to decreased pore-fluid pressure within a shallow hydrothermal system beneath the summit area.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2002

Strong interseismic coupling, fault afterslip, and viscoelastic flow before and after the Oct. 9, 1995 Colima-Jalisco earthquake: continuous GPS measurements from Colima, Mexico

Continuous GPS measurements from Colima, Mexico during 4/93-6/01, bracketing the Oct. 9, 1995 M = 8.0 Colima-Jalisco earthquake, provide new constraints on Rivera plate subduction mechanics. Modeling of margin-normal strain accumulation before the earthquake suggests the Rivera-North America subduction interface was fully locked. Transient postseismic motion from 10/ 95-6/97 is well fit by a model that includes logarithmically-decaying fault afterslip, elastic strain from shallow fault relocking, and possibly a minor viscoelastic response, but is fit poorly by models that assume a dominant Maxwell viscoelastic response of the lower crust and upper mantle, independent of the assumed viscosities. Landward, margin-normal motion since mid-1997 is parallel to but ??? 75% slower than the pre-seismic velocity. Afterslip alone fails to account for this slowdown. The viscoelastic response predicted by a FEM correctly resolves the remaining velocity difference within the uncertainties. Both processes thus offset elastic strain accumulating from the relocked subduction interface.

Colima↗
USGS2002

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar studies of Alaska volcanoes

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) imaging is a recently developed geodetic technique capable of measuring ground-surface deformation with centimeter to subcentimeter vertical precision and spatial resolution of tens-of-meter over a relatively large region (/spl sim/10/sup 4/ km/sup 2/). The spatial distribution of surface deformation data, derived from InSAR images, enables the construction of detailed mechanical models to enhance the study of magmatic and tectonic processes associated with volcanoes. This paper summarizes our recent InSAR studies of several Alaska volcanoes, which include Okmok, Akutan, Kiska, Augustine, Westdahl, and Peulik volcanoes.

Alaska↗
USGS2002

Transient stress-coupling between the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquakes

A three-dimensional finite-element model (FEM) of the Mojave block region in southern California is constructed to investigate transient stress-coupling between the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes. The FEM simulates a poroelastic upper-crust layer coupled to a viscoelastic lower-crust layer, which is decoupled from the upper mantle. FEM predictions of the transient mechanical behavior of the crust are constrained by global positioning system (GPS) data, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images, fluid-pressure data from water wells, and the dislocation source of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. Two time-dependent parameters, hydraulic diffusivity of the upper crust and viscosity of the lower crust, are calibrated to 10 –2 m 2 ·sec –1 and 5 × 10 18 Pa·sec respectively. The hydraulic diffusivity is relatively insensitive to heterogeneous fault-zone permeability specifications and fluid-flow boundary conditions along the elastic free-surface at the top of the problem domain. The calibrated FEM is used to predict the evolution of Coulomb stress during the interval separating the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes. The predicted change in Coulomb stress near the hypocenter of the Hector Mine earthquake increases from 0.02 to 0.05 MPa during the 7-yr interval separating the two events. This increase is primarily attributed to the recovery of decreased excess fluid pressure from the 1992 Landers coseismic (undrained) strain field. Coulomb stress predictions are insensitive to small variations of fault-plane dip and hypocentral depth estimations of the Hector Mine rupture.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗