Geology Reports⌕ Search
Home/Archive/USGS

USGS · 70221422

Enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability in recent decades

Pamela R. Grothe·Kim M. Cobb·Giovanni Liguori·Emanuele Di Lorenzo·Antonietta Capotondi·Yanbin Lu·Hai Cheng·R. Lawrence Edwards·John R. Southon·Guaciara M. Santos·Daniel M. Decampo·Jean Lynch-Stieglitz·Tianran Chen·Hussein R. Sayani·Diane M. Thompson·Jessica L. Conroy·Andrea L. Moore·Kayla Townsend·Melat Hagos·Gemma O’Connor·Lauren T. Toth
View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest source of year-to-year global climate variability. While Earth system models suggest a range of possible shifts in ENSO properties under continued greenhouse gas forcing, many centuries of preindustrial climate data are required to detect a potential shift in the properties of recent ENSO extremes. Here we reconstruct the strength of ENSO variations over the last 7,000 years with a new ensemble of fossil coral oxygen isotope records from the Line Islands, located in the central equatorial Pacific. The corals document a significant decrease in ENSO variance of ~20% from 3,000 to 5,000 years ago, coinciding with changes in spring/fall precessional insolation. We find that ENSO variability over the last five decades is ~25% stronger than during the preindustrial. Our results provide empirical support for recent climate model projections showing an intensification of ENSO extremes under greenhouse forcing.

Explore related subjects

Geophysical Research LettersArticle

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Pamela R. Grothe, Kim M. Cobb, Giovanni Liguori, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Antonietta Capotondi, Yanbin Lu, Hai Cheng, R. Lawrence Edwards, John R. Southon, Guaciara M. Santos, Daniel M. Decampo, Jean Lynch-Stieglitz, Tianran Chen, Hussein R. Sayani, Diane M. Thompson, Jessica L. Conroy, Andrea L. Moore, Kayla Townsend, Melat Hagos, Gemma O’Connor, Lauren T. Toth. 2020-04-04. Enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability in recent decades. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl083906

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

USGS2026

Evolution of summit magma pressure during the 2018 caldera collapse at Kılauea volcano

We utilized geodetic data from the 16 May to 4 August 2018 caldera collapse sequence to refine the geometries and pressure evolution of two summit reservoirs at Kīlauea volcano: the shallower Halema‘uma‘u (HMM) and deeper South Caldera (SC) reservoirs. We modeled magma reservoirs as pressurized spheroidal cavities and constrained reservoir geometries with Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar displacements. Inverting high-rate GPS and borehole tilt time series recovered time-dependent reservoir pressure changes and caldera ring fault shear stress. During the collapse sequence, the HMM reservoir accommodated episodic, co-collapse pressure increases of 1.9 MPa (median) and a net 5.8 MPa (median) decrease. Simultaneously, the SC reservoir underwent monotonic depressurization of 6.7 MPa (median). Negligible co-collapse pressure changes in the SC reservoir imply it was not exclusively supplying magma to the eruption vent. These results provide a coherent view of magma reservoir pressure evolution during the 2018 eruption.

Hawaii↗
USGS2026

EMIT reveals elevated calcite signatures in shorelines of Lake Powell and Lake Mead exposed by drought and Colorado River management

Nearly half of Earth’s seasonal freshwater storage variability occurs in human-managed reservoirs, resulting in large areas of reservoir-bed that are episodically inundated or subaerially exposed. Here we use hyperspectral data from NASA’s Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) mission to map calcite mineral assemblages across exposed surfaces in two large U.S. reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell. Results show distinct patterns in the occurrence of carbonate, clay, and mica minerals. Reservoir-deposited sediments exhibited significantly higher calcite proportions than adjacent, lithologically similar, non-inundated terrestrial surfaces. These differences likely reflect hydrologically-driven calcite precipitation, wherein warm, clear, productive reservoir waters drive calcium carbonate out of solution. We also detect reductions in calcite proportions in areas of the shoreline disturbed by human recreation. EMIT's imaging capabilities enable rapid, high-resolution mineralogical inventories across vast areas where field sampling is infeasible. We find EMIT is a scalable tool for monitoring geochemical changes associated with large water level fluctuations.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2026

First application of a coastal-dune model (AeoLiS) to simulate fluvial-aeolian morphodynamics

Quantifying aeolian processes is important to decision-making in river management and for optimizing strategies for ecosystem conservation, natural resource management, and recreation. We applied the AeoLiS aeolian transport model, originally developed for coastal environments, to a dryland river corridor to evaluate its ability to simulate sediment dynamics in a fluvial-aeolian system. The model reproduced spatial and temporal patterns of geomorphic change at a Grand Canyon sandbar, including aeolian dune formation, observed in field data. The model effectively captured trends in observed sediment movement in the spring and summer months. Thus, despite assuming a single grain-size, static vegetation, and not directly accounting for variable sediment supply from fluvial sources, the model performs well at capturing aeolian processes in a complex fluvial-aeolian system. AeoLiS demonstrates strong potential for dryland river applications and management, due to its flexibility and compatibility with coupled modeling frameworks.

Arizona↗