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Lauren T. Toth

Publications and source records attributed to Lauren T. Toth.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Repeated coral bleaching events have eroded reef accretion potential in the Florida Keys

Coral bleaching is now the primary driver of coral-reef degradation globally, threatening the persistence of coral-reef functions and the invaluable ecosystem services they support. The Florida Keys have been impacted by four severe, regional-scale coral-bleaching events, which occurred in 1997–1998, 2005, 2014–2015, and 2023. Our aim in this study was to quantify the effects of those thermal-stress events on the persistence of coral-reef structures. We leveraged long-term coral-reef monitoring data to quantify the impacts of coral bleaching on coral cover, carbonate production, and reef-accretion potential throughout the Florida Keys from 1996–2024. Our study indicates that coral bleaching drove significant declines of reef-building corals, which successively diminished regional-scale reef-accretion potential (from 1.65 ± 0.33 mm y -1 in 1996) and culminated with a regional-scale transition to net reef erosion (-0.12 ± 0.08 mm y -1 ) following the 2023 event. Coral bleaching was the primary driver of declining reef-building capacity, with the cumulative impacts of the four coral-bleaching events accounting for >75% of total declines since 1996. The 1997–1998 event alone drove ~50% of overall declines, largely due to losses of the shallow-water ecosystem engineer, Acropora palmata . More moderate impacts of thermal stress on regional reef-accretion potential in 2005 (6%) and 2014–2015 (9%) could lend some support to the hypothesis that the remaining corals were more thermally tolerant; however, the unprecedented thermal stress event in 2023 caused widespread coral-bleaching and bleaching-related mortality, and caused an additional 12% of the total decline in reef-accretion potential. Stony-coral tissue loss disease accounted for an additional 6% of the decline, with the remaining 19% unexplained. Coral bleaching has already dramatically reshaped the structure and function of coral reefs in the Florida Keys over the last three decades. With the high likelihood that thermal stress will accelerate moving forward, the persistence of Florida’s essential coral-reef functions and services is uncertain.

Florida↗
USGS2026

CoralCache: A virtual coral core repository for transparent and reproducible annual growth rate analyses

As science fields enter the Big Data revolution, open-access repositories are essential for addressing larger-scale questions than are possible for single researchers by making data findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR). Furthermore, transparent data and code are increasingly important for reproducible research, especially for data types that inherently require subjective human interpretations. These ideas are applicable to coral sclerochronology, as the field has long been characterized by individual researchers collecting and analyzing coral skeletal cores from their study sites without substantial data sharing or archiving of the core images to meet FAIR principles. Here, we present CoralCache, a virtual coral core repository that not only archives image datasets (i.e., digitized X-rays and computed tomography scans), but also observer interpretations of the density banding patterns. CoralCache is linked to a graphical user interface, CoralCT, which together offer a way forward for coral growth rate analysis that is reproducible and collaborative. The data organization systems presented here could also be readily applied to related archives such as tree rings or bivalve shells.

Earth System Science Data↗
USGS2026

Scenarios and strategies for future-proofing ecosystem management under climatic novelty

Climate change is driving unprecedented declines in dominant, habitat-forming foundation species across marine and terrestrial ecosystems globally. As climatic novelty becomes the norm, ecosystem reassembly will become increasingly common. Predicting and understanding these transitions, and their implications for future ecosystem functioning, is essential for designing effective forward-looking management strategies. We explored 3 scenarios that describe a range of ecosystem reassembly trajectories following declines in previously dominant habitat-forming taxa: compensation, in which functionally similar subdominant or immigrating taxa maintain ecosystem structure and function; decline, in which no compensation occurs leading to loss of ecosystem structure and function; and transformation, in which the ecosystem present historically can no longer persist and shifts into a fundamentally different ecosystem type with distinct structure and function. This range of potential outcomes highlights the urgent need to assess the ecological feasibility and functional implications of potential management actions. Scientists and managers can work together to quantify local-scale climatic novelty and ecosystem resilience to better predict the most likely reassembly trajectories and identify management interventions that will optimize ecosystem function. This approach would allow for more proactive planning to support persistence of ecosystem structure and function, helping to future-proof ecosystem management in a rapidly changing world.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2026

The USGS Rotating X-ray Computed Tomography (RXCT) Coral-Core Archive: Scope, access, and standardization

We announce the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Rotating X-ray Computed Tomography (RXCT) Coral-Core Archive, a digital resource derived from ~400 coral reef cores curated at the USGS Pacific and St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Centers. The archive de-livers calibrated 3-D image volumes that enable reproducible values of skeletal density, linear extension, and calcification from decadal-to-centennials scale records of coral growth and bioerosion. Cross-study comparability within the archive is supported by a unified RXCT workflow that minimizes imaging artifacts. This includes rejecting im-age-intensity–density regressions with r² < 0.95, back-calculating standard densities to verify a ±10% target precision, and confirming that band-averaged density values fall within published species- and site-specific ranges. Given global coral-reef decline and the rarity of physical archives, we release data under FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interopera-ble, Reusable) principles. Calibrated imagery and scan metadata are distributed through CoralCache/CoralCT for analysis (DeCarlo et al., 2025), while core locations and collection metadata are published through the USGS Geologic Core and Sample Database (DOI: 10.5066/F7319TR3) with links to CT slice imagery in a USGS ScienceBase repository (DOI: 10.5066/P139Y9H4). This archive provides a powerful dataset for evaluating environ-mental controls on coral growth, establishing restoration baselines, and improving coastal-hazard assessments in the face of global coral-reef declines.

American Somoa, Guam, Florida, Hawaii, U.S. Virgin↗
USGS2026

Persistence of coral reef structures into the twenty-first century

Coral reefs provide important socioecological services but are vulnerable to climate change, which shifts the balance between the production and erosion of calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ). In this Review, we summarize understanding of reef accretion, describe the mechanisms of carbonate production and erosion, and consider the effects of future ocean warming and acidification on key reef-building and eroding taxa. The combined stressors of climate change substantially reduce net carbonate production, with a more pronounced effect on calcifying algae than corals. However, declining coral cover driven by marine heatwaves and mass bleaching will probably be the dominant determinant of future reef carbonate budgets, and thus only reefs with thermally adapted populations are predicted to maintain the ability to sustain positive CaCO 3 production under climate change, even if calcareous algal cover increases. As carbonate budgets become net negative in the future, the longevity of pre-existing reef frameworks remains unknown and understudied owing to the timescales required to meaningfully assess framework removal rates. Improving estimates of the rates of biologically driven framework loss and chemical dissolution will also be important in better predicting future reef persistence. Key knowledge gaps exist in understanding the effects of deoxygenation on coral reefs, as well as the influence of climate change on understudied sediment-producing taxa such as foraminifera and tropical molluscs.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗
USGS2025

Reduced Atlantic reef growth past 2 °C warming amplifies sea-level impacts

Coral reefs form complex physical structures that can help to mitigate coastal flooding risk 1,2 . This function will be reduced by sea-level rise (SLR) and impaired reef growth caused by climate change and local anthropogenic stressors 3 . Water depths above reef surfaces are projected to increase as a result, but the magnitudes and timescales of this increase are poorly constrained, which limits modelling of coastal vulnerability 4,5 . Here we analyse fossil reef deposits to constrain links between reef ecology and growth potential across more than 400 tropical western Atlantic sites, and assess the magnitudes of resultant above-reef increases in water depth through to 2100 under various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) emission scenarios. Our analysis predicts that more than 70% of tropical western Atlantic reefs will transition into net erosional states by 2040, but that if warming exceeds 2 °C (SSP2–4.5 and higher), nearly all reefs (at least 99%) will be eroding by 2100. The divergent trajectories of reef growth and SLR will thus magnify the effects of SLR; increases in water depth of around 0.3–0.5 m above the present are projected under all warming scenarios by 2060, but depth increases of 0.7–1.2 m are predicted by 2100 under scenarios in which warming surpasses 2 °C. This would increase the risk of flooding along vulnerable reef-fronted coasts and modify nearshore hydrodynamics and ecosystems. Reef restoration offers one pathway back to higher reef growth 6,7 , but would dampen the effects of SLR in 2100 only by around 0.3–0.4 m, and only when combined with aggressive climate mitigation.

Florida↗
USGS2025

Coral restoration can drive rapid increases in reef accretion potential

Coral-reef degradation is disrupting the balance between reef accretion and erosion and threatening the persistence of essential coral-reef habitats. In south Florida, most reefs are already net eroding, and without intervention, valuable ecosystem services may be lost. Coral restoration holds the potential to reverse those trends; however, typical restoration monitoring does not adequately capture key geo-ecological functions. We addressed this knowledge gap using carbonate budgets and Structure-from-Motion models to evaluate the impact of coral restoration on reef-accretion potential and structural complexity at eight offshore and three inshore coral reefs in the Lower Florida Keys. Within 2–6 years following outplanting, restoration of rapidly growing A. cervicornis populations increased reef-accretion potential to 2.8 mm y − 1 and drove significant increases in structural complexity. There was no measurable impact of restoring slower-growing, massive corals on reef-accretion potential inshore; however, whereas the severe 2023 coral-bleaching event immediately following our study caused near-complete mortality of A. cervicornis , 59% of massive corals survived, highlighting potential trade-offs between coral growth and survival on future restoration efficacy. We conclude that although restoration can produce rapid, small-scale increases in reef-accretion potential, there remain important uncertainties about how and whether ecosystem-scale benefits of restoration on important geo-ecological reef functions can persist long term.

south Florida↗
USGS2025

Land-based nutrient flux to a fringing reef: Insights from Ofu Island, American Samoa

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is a critical driver of nutrient transport in coral reef ecosystems, shaping water quality, primary productivity, and overall reef health. This study quantifies SGD fluxes and associated nutrient dynamics in two reef flat pools within the Ofu Unit of the National Park of American Samoa: Papaloloa and Fatuana. A multi-method approach integrating unoccupied aerial system-based thermal infrared (UAS-TIR) surveys, radon-based SGD measurements, multichannel electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and discrete water sampling was used to assess SGD rates and nutrient contributions. UAS-TIR imagery revealed cooler sea surface temperatures in both pools, indicative of SGD, with the higher fluxes observed in Papaloloa. Radon measurements revealed a strong inverse correlation between SGD rates and tidal stage, with a more immediate SGD response at Papaloloa due to its highly permeable calcareous sand and gravel substrate. In contrast, a 2–3-hour lag in SGD response at Fatuana suggests discharge from a more inland aquifer that has lower diffusivity. Nutrient concentrations correlated with temperature and salinity, confirming SGD as the dominant nutrient transport mechanism, whereas isotopic analyses indicated inputs from both groundwater and potential anthropogenic sources. Despite lower SGD flux at Fatuana, higher algal cover suggests additional factors influencing algal proliferation, including substrate availability and hydrodynamic conditions. Excess nutrient inputs from SGD may contribute to algal overgrowth, which threatens Ofu’s thermally tolerant corals by increasing competition for space and light. These findings underscore the complexity of SGD-mediated nutrient dynamics in reef environments and emphasize the need for integrated hydrological and ecological assessments to support effective reef conservation and management strategies.

American Samoa, Ofu Island, Olosega Island↗
USGS2025

Shifting baselines of coral-reef species composition from the Late Pleistocene to the present in the Florida Keys

The ongoing global-scale reassembly of modern coral reefs is unprecedented compared with the observed stability of most late Quaternary reef assemblages. One notable exception is the marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e ( ca 130–116 thousand years ago [ka]) reefs in the Florida Keys, where the ubiquitous shallow-water coral, Acropora palmata , was near absent. Little is known, however, about reefs that grew during MIS5d–a ( ca 116–74 ka), between MIS5e and the Holocene. It is therefore unclear whether Florida's unique MIS5e coral assemblages represent a geologically brief anomaly or a more persistent departure from the western Atlantic coral-reef archetype. We addressed that question by reconstructing the composition of MIS5d–a reefs within 29 coral-reef cores collected throughout the Florida Keys. We then compared the relative composition of corals during MIS5d–a to existing datasets from MIS5e, Holocene and modern (1996 and 2022) reefs to evaluate how far today's reef assemblages have diverged from geological baselines. We show that although the proportion of reef frameworks built by corals was remarkably consistent ( ca 38%), species composition changed significantly through time. Acropora palmata was rare throughout MIS5, which we hypothesise was due to greater cold-temperature stress in Florida's subtropical reefs compared with the more climatically stable tropics. In contrast, the massive reef-building coral, Orbicella spp., was regionally dominant throughout the late Quaternary, but has become increasingly rare on modern reefs. By 2022, reefs in the Florida Keys were characterised by a truly novel coral assemblage dominated by Porites astreoides and Siderastrea siderea . In many ways, Florida's reefs defy the concept of a natural baseline; instead, their most persistent characteristic since the Late Pleistocene is their uniqueness. Yet, as reefs are increasingly subjected to unprecedented levels of environmental change, the exceptions to what was normal in the past could, paradoxically, provide the best geological analogues for the future.

Florida↗
USGS2025

Discovery of late Holocene-aged Acropora palmata reefs in Dry Tortugas National Park, Florida, USA: The past as a key to the future?

Emblematic of global coral-reef ecosystem decline, the coral ecosystem-engineer Acropora palmata is now rare throughout much of the western Atlantic. Understanding when and where this foundation species occurred during the past can provide information about the environmental limits defining its distribution through space and time. In this paper, the present, historical and newly dated geological records of A. palmata are compared to reveal novel insights into the environmental constraints on its occurrence in Dry Tortugas National Park, a subtropical reef system at the south-western terminus of the Florida reef tract. Although past geological investigation found little evidence of the species in the park, a single, moderately sized A. palmata reef existed throughout historical times (1881 Common Era [CE] to present day; ‘historical population’, termed herein). Over the last 140 years, repeated population declines occurred with little to no recovery, culminating in the extirpation of A. palmata from the area during the 2023–2024 CE global coral bleaching event. Reported here for the first time is a significant record of Late Holocene A. palmata populations that existed from ca 4500 to 375 years before present (‘Late Holocene population,’ termed herein) in three broadly distributed areas of the shallow Dry Tortugas platform. This discovery challenges previous assumptions regarding the species' limited contribution to reef development in the area by providing data that extend the known spatial and stratigraphic extent of Holocene populations in this location. It is posited that, although the Late Holocene climate largely suppressed regional reef development, the new records provide evidence for centennial-scale periods of more favourable and stable climate that allowed for short-term expansions of A. palmata populations in the Dry Tortugas. In conclusion, the species' prospects for future success in this and other subtropical location

Florida↗
USGS2025

Ecological thresholds and transformations due to climate change: The role of abiotic stress

An ecological threshold is the point at which a comparatively small environmental change triggers an abrupt and disproportionately large ecological response. In the face of accelerating climate change, there is concern that abrupt ecosystem transformations will become more widespread as critical ecological thresholds are crossed. There has been ongoing debate, however, regarding the prevalence of ecological thresholds across the natural world. While ecological thresholds are ubiquitous in some ecosystems, thresholds have been difficult to detect in others. Some studies have even concluded that threshold responses are uncommon in the natural world and overly emphasized in the ecological literature. As ecologists who work in ecosystems chronically exposed to high abiotic stress, we consider ecological thresholds and ecosystem transformations to be critical concepts that can greatly advance understanding of ecological responses to climate change and inform ecosystem management. But quantifying ecological thresholds can be challenging, if not impossible, without data that are strategically collected for that purpose. Here, we present a conceptual framework built upon linkages between abiotic stress, climate-driven ecological threshold responses, and the risk of ecosystem transformation. We also present a simple approach for quantifying ecological thresholds across abiotic stress gradients. We hypothesize that climate-driven threshold responses are especially influential in ecosystems chronically exposed to high abiotic stress, where autotroph diversity is low and foundation species play a prominent ecological role. Abiotic conditions in these environments are often near physiological tolerance limits of foundation species, which means that small abiotic changes can trigger landscape-level ecological transformations. Conversely, the alleviation of stress near thresholds can allow foundation species to thrive and spread into previously inhospitable locations. We provide examples of this climate-driven threshold behavior from four high-stress environments: coastal wetlands, coral reefs, drylands, and alpine ecosystems. Our overarching aim in this review is to clarify the strong relationships between abiotic stress, climate-driven ecological thresholds, and the risk of ecosystem transformation under climate change.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2025

Snapshots of mid-to-late Holocene sea-surface temperature variability from a subtropical western Atlantic coral reef

Large-scale Holocene climate reconstructions rely heavily on extratropical proxy records. Coral-based temperature reconstructions from the tropical and subtropical oceans therefore fill a critical spatial and temporal data gap, allowing for reconstruction of seasonally resolved temperature variability. We present five new, monthly-resolved sea-surface temperature (SST) reconstructions (between 39 and 57 years in length) from 2 to 7 thousand years ago (ka) based on the strontium-to‑calcium ratio (Sr/Ca) of Orbicella faveolata corals from subtropical reefs in south Florida. Modern calibrations between O. faveolata Sr/Ca and in situ SST from the region allow us to directly compare the mean and variability of SSTs since the mid-Holocene. In contrast to the low climate variability observed in more tropical areas of the western Atlantic during the Holocene, our records from subtropical south Florida exhibit pronounced changes in mean SST and variability. Our records suggest that mid-Holocene SSTs in the Florida Keys were highly variable, with relatively cooler winters driving a cooler mean SST at ∼6.7 ka (23.7 ± 0.6°C at 6.7 ka and 25.0 ± 0.5°C at 6.6 ka), and relatively warmer summers and more variable temperatures by 5.8 ka (27.1 ± 0.4°C, seasonality of 8.7°C). We also analyzed stable oxygen isotopes in two of our corals and those data support our Sr/Ca-based estimate of climatic warming between 6.6 ka and 5.8 ka (−3.6‰ and − 3.9‰). Both winter and summer temperatures were significantly cooler than the other mid-to-late Holocene snapshots at 3.6 ka (21.2 ± 0.5°C) and SST warmed but remained highly variable at 2.6 ka (25.0 ± 0.6°C, seasonality of 7.9°C). These centennial-scale changes in climate variability potentially contributed to the regional shutdown of reef accretion by the late Holocene. Our reconstructions provide a proof-of-concept study that highlights the value of coral-based SST records from highly sensitive, subtropical locations for understanding Holocene climate on seasonal to centennial timescales.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Modern coral range expansion off southeast Florida falls short of Late Holocene baseline

As thermal stress and disease outbreaks decimate coral reefs throughout the tropics, there is growing evidence that higher latitude marine environments may provide crucial refuges for many at-risk, temperature-sensitive coral species. However, our understanding of how coral populations expand into new areas and sustain themselves over time is constrained by the limited scope of modern observations. Here, we provide geological insights into coral range expansions by reconstructing the composition of a Late Holocene-aged subfossil coral death assemblage on the southeast Florida reef tract and comparing it to modern reefs throughout the region. Our findings show that the Late Holocene coral assemblages were dominated by now critically endangered Acropora species between ~3500 and 1800 years before present, mirroring classic zonation patterns characteristic of healthy pre-1970s Caribbean reefs. In contrast, the modern reefs off southeast Florida are becoming increasingly dominated by stress-tolerant species like Porites astreoides and Siderastrea siderea despite modest expansions of Acropora cervicornis over the past several decades. Our results suggest that ongoing anthropogenic stressors, not present during the Late Holocene, are likely limiting the ability of modern higher latitude reefs in Florida to function as long-term climate refugia.

Florida↗
USGS2024

20th century warming in the lower Florida Keys was dominated by increasing winter temperatures

Long-lived Atlantic coral species like Orbicella faveolata are important archives of oceanographic change in shallow, marine environments like the Florida Keys. Not only can coral-based records extend for multiple centuries beyond the limits of the instrumental record, but they can also provide a more accurate representation of in situ conditions than gridded interpolated sea-surface temperature (SST) products for nearshore reef environments. We use the coral Sr/Ca paleothermometer to produce a 150-year (1830–1980 C.E.) monthly SST reconstruction from an O . faveolata colony collected in the Marquesas Keys, FL, USA. An important feature of our record is a significant 20th-century warming trend in winter SSTs. We hypothesize that the winter warming trend was driven partially by a decrease in upwelling associated cyclonic eddies spinning off the Florida Current. A long-term weakening of winter Florida Current transport over the 20th century could be responsible for decreased cyclonic eddy formation in the Florida Straits. Another feature of the record is pronounced multidecadal fluctuations of mean annual warming and cooling in the record, which correspond to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), with the AMV lagging behind western Florida Keys temperatures by 5–11 years. Strong coherence between coral-based SST reconstructions in the western Florida Keys with broader scale Atlantic oceanographic trends over the past century suggests a common driver of regional SST variability.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Re-evaluating Marine Isotope Stage 5a paleo-sea-level trends from across the Florida Keys reef tract

Unraveling how Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) fluctuated during past warm periods can improve our understanding of linkages between sea-level fluctuations, orbital forcing, and ice-sheet dynamics. Current estimates of GMSL for Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5a and 5c — two warm intervals following the relatively well-documented MIS 5e — contain meters of uncertainty and fewer data due to several challenges. These challenges include concealment of datable in-situ coral facies by MIS 1 deposits and inaccessibility due to submergence by modern sea level. We present a comprehensive dataset based on U–Th dating and stratigraphic correlation of 23 cores totaling over 170 m of recovered coral-reef deposits across the tectonically stable Florida Keys Reef Tract (FKRT). Following detailed facies descriptions, 34 in-situ, minimally altered aragonitic coral samples (≤2.7% calcite) below the Holocene-Pleistocene boundary were targeted for U–Th geochronology. Fourteen closed-system coral U–Th ages from MIS 5a include the commonly used sea-level indicator Acropora palmata , but also the massive coral taxa Pseudodiploria strigosa, Siderastrea siderea, Orbicella spp., and Porites astreoides . Dating yielded ages in the range of 88–81 ka (average 2σ uncertainty of less than 200 years). These ages suggest MIS 5a reef initiation at ∼88 ka BP, a peak near 83 ka with minimum elevations between −6.0 ± 0.5 and −5.6 ± 0.5 m MSL (2σ uncertainty and subsidence-corrected), and reef termination and sea-level fall by ∼81 ka BP. Notably, the range of peak MIS 5a relative sea-level estimates of −6.5 to −5.1 m MSL are more than 2 m shallower (higher) than previous estimates of −11 to −9 m. Our higher resolution regional sea-level reconstruction across four subregions of the Florida Keys reef tract aligns with changes in July insolation at 65° N: a trend that most other records, such as deep-sea sediments, do not have the accuracy and precision to resolve. Three massive coral samples from MIS 5c, consisting of Pseudodiploria clivosa , and Orbicella spp., yielded ages in the range of 104 to 99 ka (average 2σ uncertainty less than 200 years); however, because only one sample met the closed-system criteria, our ability to estimate MIS 5c sea level is relatively limited. More empirical estimates of sea-level from the MIS 5a and MIS 5c intervals based on numerical dating of reliable local sea-level constraints are critical for GMSL calculations and relating changes in sea-level amplitude and timing to global ice volume modeling and glacio-isostatic effects, all of which can improve predictions of future sea-level changes in coastal regions.

Florida↗
USGS2023

Stony coral tissue loss disease accelerated shifts in coral composition and declines in reef accretion potential in the Florida Keys

Outbreaks of coral disease have been a dominant force shaping western Atlantic coral-reef assemblages since the late 1970s. Stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) is nonetheless having an unprecedented impact in the region. Whereas numerous studies over the last decade have worked to characterize this novel pathogen and its impacts on coral populations, few have quantified its functional effects on reef ecosystems. Of particular importance is how SCTLD may be impacting the essential reef-accretion process and the myriad ecosystem services it supports. Here, we evaluated the impact of SCTLD on reef-accretion potential by estimating carbonate budgets and taxon-level carbonate production at 43 sites throughout the Florida Keys from 2016−2022. Average regional reef-accretion potential declined from an already low, but positive rate of 0.30 ± 0.16 mm y -1 (mean ± standard error) in 2016 before the disease was first observed, to a state of accretionary stasis (0.08 ± 0.12 mm y -1 ) by 2022. This 70% relative decline in reef-accretion potential was driven by the loss of reef-building corals, with significant decreases in carbonate production by massive taxa including Colpophyllia natans , Montastraea cavernosa , Pseudodiploria strigosa , Orbicella spp., and Siderastrea siderea , and increasing contributions from less susceptible, weedy taxa including Millepora spp., Agaricia spp., and Porites astreoides . In general, changes in taxon-level carbonate production following the SCTLD outbreak mirror long-term shifts in reef assemblages in response to previous stressors. One striking exception, however, is S. siderea , which had become increasingly dominant in recent decades, but declined significantly in response to SCTLD. Overall, by further decimating the already depauperate reef-building coral populations in the Florida Keys, SCTLD has caused a functionally significant shift in the composition of Florida’s coral-reef assemblages and accelerated the loss of regional reef-building capacity. The dire impacts of the disease in south Florida may serve as an early warning that the persistence of the invaluable ecological and socioeconomic functions coral reefs provide will be increasingly threatened throughout the western Atlantic in the aftermath of SCTLD.

Florida↗
USGS2023

Discovery of a rare pillar coral (Dendrogyra cylindrus) death assemblage off southeast Florida reveals multi-century persistence during the late Holocene

In recent years, coral populations in the western Atlantic have undergone widespread declines from climate change, anthropogenic stressors, and infectious disease outbreaks. The pillar coral, Dendrogyra cylindrus , has been one of the most affected species, prompting its listing as threatened under the United States Endangered Species Act in 2014 and critically endangered under the IUCN Red List in 2022. However, due to its natural rarity, it is particularly difficult to study using conventional long-term monitoring studies or less common paleontological investigations. Here, we document for the first time, the multi-century persistence of D. cylindrus on high-latitude nearshore reefs off southeast Florida during the late Holocene. Using high-precision uranium–thorium (U-Th) dating, we constrain the ages of well-preserved subfossil D. cylindrus colonies recovered from newly described coral death assemblages. We also describe specific morphological characteristics and taphonomic indicators reflecting their unique depositional environment. Our findings demonstrate long-term persistence of D. cylindrus in southeast Florida, despite geographical isolation and historical rarity in the region.

Coral Reefs↗