Geology Reports⌕ Search
Home/Archive/USGS

USGS · 70206287

Climatic controls on the distribution of foundation plant species in coastal wetlands of the conterminous United States: Knowledge gaps and emerging research needs

Michael J. Osland·James B. Grace·Glenn R. Guntenspergen·Karen Thorne·Joel A. Carr·Laura Feher
View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Foundation plant species play a critical role in coastal wetlands, often modifying abiotic conditions that are too stressful for most organisms and providing the primary habitat features that support entire ecological communities. Here, we consider the influence of climatic drivers on the distribution of foundation plant species within coastal wetlands of the conterminous USA. Using region-level syntheses, we identified 24 dominant foundation plant species within 12 biogeographic regions, and we categorized species and biogeographic regions into four groups: graminoids, mangroves, succulents, and unvegetated. Literature searches were used to characterize the level of research directed at each of the 24 species. Most coastal wetlands research has been focused on a subset of foundation species, with about 45% of publications directed at just one grass species—Spartina alterniflora. An additional 14 and 8% have been directed, respectively, at two mangrove species—Rhizophora mangle and Avicennia germinans. At the national scale, winter temperature extremes govern the distribution of mangrove forests relative to salt marsh graminoids, and arid conditions can produce hypersaline conditions that increase the dominance of succulent plants, algal mats, and unvegetated tidal flats (i.e., salt flats, salt pans) relative to graminoid and mangrove plants. Collectively, our analyses illustrate the diversity of foundation plant species in the conterminous USA and begin to elucidate the influence of climatic drivers on their distribution. However, our results also highlight critical knowledge gaps and identify emerging research needs for assessing climate change impacts. Given the importance of plant-mediated processes in coastal wetland ecosystems, there is a pressing need in many biogeographic regions for additional species- and functional group-specific research that can be used to better anticipate coastal wetland responses to rising sea levels and changing temperature and precipitation regimes.

Explore related subjects

Estuaries and CoastsArticle

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Michael J. Osland, James B. Grace, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Karen Thorne, Joel A. Carr, Laura Feher. 2019-10-24. Climatic controls on the distribution of foundation plant species in coastal wetlands of the conterminous United States: Knowledge gaps and emerging research needs. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-019-00640-z

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

USGS2026

Drivers of ecosystem metabolism in an anthropogenically modified delta

Estuaries are under threat globally from a wide range of stressors, with rates of ecosystem metabolism – respiration (R), gross primary production (GPP), and net ecosystem metabolism (NEM) – representing a way for resource managers to quantify their impacts. In this study, we assessed how natural and anthropogenic stressors have altered metabolism within the extensively modified Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (“Delta”) in California, USA. Metabolism was estimated using a diel open-water technique utilizing dissolved oxygen measurements from a high frequency (15 min) water quality monitoring array, and spanned 6 sites across 11 years (2014–2025). Our analyses were driven by a conceptual model of Delta carbon (C) cycling focused on 1) Invasive aquatic vegetation (IAV), 2) Phytoplankton, 3) Wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) upgrades, 4) Large-scale flow alterations, and 5) Wet vs. dry years. We found that allochthonous C fuels net heterotrophy in the outer riverine sections of the Delta, while the heavily vegetated central Delta produces autochthonous C remineralized elsewhere in the system. IAV were the dominant primary producers, with low phytoplankton production except during a historic bloom. WWTP upgrades imparted negligible changes to metabolism, with low chlorophyll a (< 5 µg L −1 ) both before and after. Introduction of a flow barrier – a management response to drought – hydrodynamically isolated deep-water channels from nearby shallow areas, resulting in decreased metabolism indicative of changes to C transport. Contrary to past research, low rainfall years were associated with increased metabolism. This study demonstrates how multi-sensor arrays can be used to quantify ecosystem responses to major environmental stressors.

California↗
USGS2026

Forecasting marsh resilience in the Plum Island Estuary: Integrating uncertainty to inform coastal management

Salt marshes provide critical ecosystem services yet face increasing threats from accelerated relative sea-level rise (SLR). The long-term persistence of these habitats depends on their ability to vertically accrete and laterally migrate into adjacent uplands. Predicting the location and viability of these future marsh corridors is therefore a primary challenge for coastal managers; one often hindered by uncertainties in future water levels and topographic data accuracy, particularly in vegetated wetlands where light detection and ranging (lidar) data systematically overestimate elevation. This study applies an uncertainty-informed modeling framework to forecast marsh resilience in the Plum Island Estuary, Massachusetts. We integrated the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) with a Monte Carlo error analysis, generating an ensemble of bias-corrected digital elevation models (DEMs) alongside three probabilistic SLR scenarios (Intermediate, Intermediate High, High) through 2100. We synthesized these simulations into a “marsh fate” classification map to distinguish between resilient core habitats, vulnerable zones requiring intervention, and likely migration corridors. While the marsh platform exhibits resilience under Intermediate scenarios, a critical tipping point emerges under the High SLR scenario. In this case, accelerating inundation overwhelms accretion capacities, driving a landscape-scale regime shift. By integrating the interacting uncertainties of SLR trajectories and initial marsh elevation, we project 2100 net marsh coverage outcomes ranging from a 10.5% gain to a 23.2% loss. These results demonstrate that incorporating elevation uncertainty is essential for detecting non-linear threshold behaviors that deterministic models often miss. The resulting framework empowers managers with a spatially explicit tool to prioritize land acquisition and restoration efforts in the face of climate uncertainty.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2026

Incorporating wetland drowning thresholds to assess the spatiotemporal variability in potential wetland migration and submergence from sea-level rise

In the coming decades sea-level rise rates could exceed the upper bounds of coastal wetland vertical movement leading to wetland submergence. Consequently, understanding the spatiotemporal variability of wetland migration and submergence at regional and national scales can inform decision making. In this study, we developed an approach that addresses elevation error in digital elevation models for wetlands, incorporates uncertainty in current and future water levels, and utilizes recent literature on coastal wetland drowning thresholds. We used our framework to predict wetland change with sea-level rise for the middle and upper Texas coast—a region that is experiencing some of the highest relative sea-level rise rates in the United States. Our elevation-based approach produced contemporary wetland maps that had a high level of agreement (> 87–91%) with existing national wetland maps. For the intermediate relative sea-level rise scenario, extensive change is predicted within the study area by 2100, including a net decrease in coverage of irregularly oceanic-flooded wetlands (-37%) and regularly oceanic-flooded wetlands (-23%). The wetland migration space of these two wetland zones is largely made up of existing wetlands (> 70%), but also includes other upland areas, such as pasture/hay and grassland. By breaking down our results for the full region and two distinct focal areas, we highlight the spatiotemporal variability of wetland change. Our scalable approach provides natural resource managers with information for developing location-specific strategies for balancing the trade-offs associated with wetland change from sea-level rise.

Texas↗