Geology topics

Michael J. Osland

Publications and source records attributed to Michael J. Osland.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Incorporating wetland drowning thresholds to assess the spatiotemporal variability in potential wetland migration and submergence from sea-level rise

In the coming decades sea-level rise rates could exceed the upper bounds of coastal wetland vertical movement leading to wetland submergence. Consequently, understanding the spatiotemporal variability of wetland migration and submergence at regional and national scales can inform decision making. In this study, we developed an approach that addresses elevation error in digital elevation models for wetlands, incorporates uncertainty in current and future water levels, and utilizes recent literature on coastal wetland drowning thresholds. We used our framework to predict wetland change with sea-level rise for the middle and upper Texas coast—a region that is experiencing some of the highest relative sea-level rise rates in the United States. Our elevation-based approach produced contemporary wetland maps that had a high level of agreement (> 87–91%) with existing national wetland maps. For the intermediate relative sea-level rise scenario, extensive change is predicted within the study area by 2100, including a net decrease in coverage of irregularly oceanic-flooded wetlands (-37%) and regularly oceanic-flooded wetlands (-23%). The wetland migration space of these two wetland zones is largely made up of existing wetlands (> 70%), but also includes other upland areas, such as pasture/hay and grassland. By breaking down our results for the full region and two distinct focal areas, we highlight the spatiotemporal variability of wetland change. Our scalable approach provides natural resource managers with information for developing location-specific strategies for balancing the trade-offs associated with wetland change from sea-level rise.

Texas↗

USGS2026

Towards a refined definition of “tidal influence” for the coastal wetland sciences

The astronomical tide relates to lunar (and to a lesser extent solar) influences on rising and falling water bodies, and is a key control of many coastal processes. However, tides manifest along coastal margins in different ways to muddle application beyond Sir Isaac Newton’s first descriptions. Here, we argue that tide, or specifically “tidal,” has not been adequately defined for the coastal wetland sciences to facilitate contemporary interdisciplinary distinction for rapidly changing coastlines and future climate adaptation planning. We provide a brief history of the tidal concept, and we describe tides in a diversity of uncommonly recognized marginal coastal environments. Common astronomical tide manifestations are described through hydrographic examples, then expanded to include those tidal environments exposed additionally to fluvial, meteorological (wind), or groundwater influences. Our expanded definition of “tidal” is intended to be a forward-looking construct as environments will inevitably change with sea-level rise, water extraction, and anthropogenic flow alteration. Our definition of wetland tidal influence, which we broaden, includes those “wetlands affected by astronomic water level fluctuations within coastally restricted environments causing frequent or infrequent surface inundation or groundwater tidal variation that affects the biogeochemistry of the soil (e.g., ion exchange capacity, oxygen state, mineralization processes)”. Astronomic water level fluctuations are often amplified or dampened by non-astronomical events, such as wind. Expanding the definition of what is considered tidal by the scientific community is critical for improved understanding of coastal wetland function and the suite of ecosystem services they provide people and society, including climate mitigation opportunity, management, and adaptation.

Wetlands↗

USGS2026

Ecological transformations of coastal wetlands of the conterminous United States in response to contemporaneous sea-level rise

Coastal wetlands are among the most important ecosystems on the planet but are increasingly imperiled by accelerating sea-level rise (SLR). In the past, biogeomorphic feedbacks have allowed coastal wetlands to adjust vertically and persist through periods of accelerated SLR. Recent rates of SLR are faster than any in recent geologic history, making the fate of coastal wetlands highly uncertain. Here, we synthesize surface elevation table marker-horizon data from 442 stations in coastal wetlands across the conterminous United States to evaluate if they are largely persisting in the face of accelerated SLR, or if they are undergoing ecological transformations of submergence and/or migration. Across the conterminous United States, 11% of coastal wetlands in this sample are on a trajectory of submergence whereas 73% of sites are lagging SLR, but may be able to migrate upslope, and 16% of sites are gaining elevation at rates which exceed SLR indicating persistence and an ability to migrate seaward. Vulnerability of these systems to ecological transformation varies across the three coasts of the conterminous United States which, span large biogeomorphic gradients. These results serve as one of the first national syntheses of coastal wetland elevation trends and may help focus conservation and restoration efforts in a rapidly changing future.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2026

Loss and transformation of coastal wetlands due to global change in the conterminous United States: Past, present, and future

Coastal wetlands are being transformed by global change, impacting the ecological and societal benefits provided by these ecosystems. Synthesizing knowledge of historical and expected future transformations in coastal wetlands can help inform forward-looking planning and stewardship efforts. Here, we review anticipated future ecological transformations in coastal wetlands of the conterminous United States and contrast them with past transformations. We examine trends at the national scale but focus in detail on the following six wetland-rich regions: (1) Everglades, (2) Mississippi River delta, (3) Chesapeake Bay, (4) San Francisco Estuary, (5) Puget Sound, and (6) Great Lakes. This review is among the first to integrate and compare coastal wetland transformations in the Great Lakes with their oceanic counterparts. Between 1850 and 1970, wetland losses across the nation were high because coastal wetlands were viewed as flooded wastelands needing to be drained, filled, or excavated to make room for other land uses. Over the last 50 years, growing public and scientific appreciation of the ecological and societal benefits provided by coastal wetlands has fostered tremendous gains in wetland restoration and legal protection. Looking to the future, climate change and accelerated sea-level rise have become critical threats to coastal wetlands and are emerging as major drivers of ecological loss and transformation. This review synthesizes regional knowledge regarding past, present, and future changes to help coastal scientists, environmental managers, and the public better anticipate and prepare for future coastal wetland transformations due to climate change, accelerated sea-level rise, land-use change, and other aspects of global change.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2026

Tropicalization of the temperate zone: Spatiotemporal variability of winter warming and declining freeze days across the United States

We investigate changes in cool-season and winter daily minimum (T min ) and maximum (T max ) temperatures, and the occurrence of freeze days, from 1952 to 2024 across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Emphasis is placed on the tropical-temperate transition zone (TTTz) in the southeastern CONUS. During winter, ~70% of the land area exhibited T min warming rates exceeding those of T max . The countywide coldest T min became milder across 57% of the CONUS, while the coldest T max showed little change and even cooled east of the Rocky Mountains in the central CONUS. Across the TTTz, 75% of freeze days occur within a ~25–100-day window, often fewer than 75 days in the southernmost areas. Approximately 80% of counties exhibited significant contractions in freeze-day concentration, with the largest and most spatially consistent changes occurring in the Southeast, primarily driven by later start dates. Roughly 85% of the CONUS experienced a significant decline in freeze days, with the largest relative declines in regions where average winter T min is above freezing, while parts of the Pacific Northwest showed no significant change. An analysis of freeze day isopleths (30, 45, 60 and 75 days) across 20-year periods showed that the mean latitude of freeze days has migrated poleward substantially. Between 101° W and 79° W in the TTTz, the 30 freeze-day isopleth for the late period (2005–2024) was, on average, 122 km (~1.1° latitude) farther north than in the early period (1952–1971). Generally, the largest latitudinal shifts and percentage losses in freeze days occurred across low-elevation, low-relief regions at lower latitudes (e.g., the Mississippi River Valley), with abrupt shifts occurring near topographic gradients. Regions with sharp elevational gradients (e.g., Balcones Escarpment, Ouachita Mountains and Tennessee Valley) exhibited smaller temporal changes, likely reflecting the barrier-like influence of higher terrain on the poleward retreat of freeze days.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2026

Landscape connectivity and wildlife access to water across an international border: Barriers and opportunities for facilitating transboundary movement

Rapid global acceleration in the construction of physical barriers along international borders has greatly influenced biodiversity and animal movement. Physical barriers can fragment landscapes, hinder access to essential resources, impact long-distance migrations, and inhibit dispersal and gene flow. The effects of physical barriers on animal movement and landscape connectivity can be exacerbated in dryland environments where access to water is a limiting factor. In recent decades, the construction of border barrier infrastructure has accelerated along the international boundary between the United States and Mexico. Here, we used a landscape connectivity model to investigate the effects of barriers on wildlife access to the river in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. We used a modified omnidirectional connectivity model to compare access to the river for three large, terrestrial mammal species across three border barrier scenarios: (1) a landscape without border barriers; (2) a landscape with the existing barrier system; and (3) a potential future landscape with a continuous barrier system. The existing barrier system includes many discrete sections of barrier within tracts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley National Wildlife Refuge or on lands associated with the region's flood control system. Our results indicate that the existing border barriers can impede connectivity and wildlife access to the river in some areas, while some existing gaps between border barrier sections can serve as conduits for wildlife movement and river access. Our future scenario results show how a potential continuous border barrier system could further impede wildlife access to the river. We discuss management and landscape conservation options for enhancing wildlife access to water and riverine habitats. Collectively, our results illustrate the potential effects of border barriers on wildlife movement and access to water, providing information that can be used to better anticipate and lessen the ecological impacts of transboundary barriers.

Tamaulipas, Texas↗

USGS2026

A synthesis of plant mass mortality events in coastal ecosystems

Around the world, mass mortality events are disrupting the ecological and economic stability of shorelines. To better understand mechanisms of mass mortality in coastal ecosystems, we provide a global synthesis of over 250 reports of plant mass mortality events in six coastal ecosystems: coastal freshwater forests, tidal freshwater marshes, salt marshes, mangrove forests, seagrass meadows, and kelp forests, highlighting commonalities. Mass mortality events were associated with both climate and land-use change drivers in all six coastal ecosystems. Furthermore, increases in disturbance intensity and frequency, including climate extremes, and compound disturbances were key aspects of mass mortality events. Land-use change disturbances that altered hydrology, nutrient availability, and trophic structure often interacted with climate stressors, leading to mass mortality events. Therefore, beyond global climate mitigation, remediating local land-use disturbances represents a tractable opportunity for intervention. Insights from this synthesis may help managers to anticipate mass mortality events and prevent future habitat loss.

BioScience↗

USGS2026

Scenarios and strategies for future-proofing ecosystem management under climatic novelty

Climate change is driving unprecedented declines in dominant, habitat-forming foundation species across marine and terrestrial ecosystems globally. As climatic novelty becomes the norm, ecosystem reassembly will become increasingly common. Predicting and understanding these transitions, and their implications for future ecosystem functioning, is essential for designing effective forward-looking management strategies. We explored 3 scenarios that describe a range of ecosystem reassembly trajectories following declines in previously dominant habitat-forming taxa: compensation, in which functionally similar subdominant or immigrating taxa maintain ecosystem structure and function; decline, in which no compensation occurs leading to loss of ecosystem structure and function; and transformation, in which the ecosystem present historically can no longer persist and shifts into a fundamentally different ecosystem type with distinct structure and function. This range of potential outcomes highlights the urgent need to assess the ecological feasibility and functional implications of potential management actions. Scientists and managers can work together to quantify local-scale climatic novelty and ecosystem resilience to better predict the most likely reassembly trajectories and identify management interventions that will optimize ecosystem function. This approach would allow for more proactive planning to support persistence of ecosystem structure and function, helping to future-proof ecosystem management in a rapidly changing world.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2026

21st-century mangrove expansion along the southeastern United States

Warming winter temperatures are driving range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive mangroves into temperate ecosystems. Along the Atlantic coast of North America, the mangrove range limit is particularly sensitive to climate variability and historical data demonstrate that the mangrove-salt marsh ecotone on this coast has shifted recurrently during recent centuries. However, a comprehensive understanding of how this mangrove-salt marsh ecotone may shift in the future remains lacking. Here, we combine ensemble forecasting of mangrove distribution for the next century with high-resolution oceanographic dispersal simulations, phenological observations, and historical hurricane data to project future mangrove-salt marsh dynamics at the rapidly changing range limit in northeastern Florida (USA). We show that warming winter temperatures will drive continued poleward expansion of mangroves along North America's Atlantic coast, potentially reaching South Carolina by 2100. With ongoing climate change, suitable mangrove habitat is projected to expand beyond the current range limit, and dispersal simulations suggest successful colonization of these sites from established mangrove populations. Additionally, patterns in hurricane directionality and intensity and field reports of propagule presence reveal that these high-energy events may significantly contribute to future mangrove range expansion by facilitating long-distance, storm-driven propagule dispersal. The encroachment of mangroves in salt marsh-dominated latitudes is expected to substantially modify wetland ecosystem function and structure, emphasizing how the identification of newly colonizable habitat can inform conservation strategies and site-specific decisions on mangrove management.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina↗

USGS2025

How high? Identifying elevation thresholds to guide coastal marsh restoration

Introduction Coastal marshes are highly valuable ecosystems facing threats from rising sea levels and intensifying storm events. To elevate marsh surfaces and prevent loss of ecosystem services, the beneficial use of dredged material (BUDM) is increasingly being implemented across the United States. Objectives The objective of this study was to aid decision-makers and restoration practitioners by identifying elevation thresholds that control the optimal function of Spartina patens -dominated marshes along the Texas Coast. Methods This study was conducted in the coastal marshes of the J.D. Murphree Wildlife Management Area (Texas). We collected elevation and vegetation cover data along ecological transition zones in marshes nourished with BUDM to identify elevation thresholds that define zones of optimal plant survivorship and growth. Results We identified lower (−0.05 m mean high water, MHW) and upper (0.26 m MHW) elevation thresholds that defined transitions to open water and unvegetated bare ground, respectively. Elevation targets ( T ) and elevation target zones, which defined areas with the greatest vegetation cover, were determined for S. patens ( T : 0.11 m, target zone: −0.06 to 0.26 m MHW), S. alterniflora ( T : 0.00 m, target zone: −0.12 to 0.10 m MHW), and Distichlis spicata ( T : 0.17 m, target zone: 0.07–0.25 m MHW). Conclusions Our analyses provide species-specific elevation targets for coastal marsh restoration through BUDM, which can improve restoration outcomes for coastal wetlands.

Texas↗

USGS2025

Variation in soil organic carbon across a latitudinal chronosequence of mangrove poleward expansion

The critical carbon sink provided by coastal wetlands, known as blue carbon, can be affected by multiple aspects of climate change. One important example is warming-induced mangrove poleward expansion, which is shifting dominant plant cover across tropical–temperate transitional zones and altering ecosystem structure and function. We examined how mangrove expansion affects soil organic carbon (SOC) quantity and source, using measurements of SOC density and isotopic signatures (δ 13 C and δ 15 N) at 15 sites across Florida’s west coast (USA). The sampled sites represent examples of three expansion stages: a latitudinal chronosequence of mangrove expansion, spanning mature mangroves in the south, former ecotones at mid latitudes, and current ecotones in the north. Our analyses of soil core data indicate that mangrove expansion stage is a significant predictor of SOC density, δ 13 C, and δ 15 N, but not C:N ratio. Current ecotones exhibited significantly lower SOC density but higher δ 13 C, suggesting a greater contribution of preexisting C 4 salt marshes, while no difference was found between former ecotones and mature mangroves. SOC density, δ 13 C, and δ 15 N were found to vary with mangrove aboveground biomass, stage, and sedimentary setting along the latitudinal gradient. For all three mangrove expansion stages, SOC density decreased with depth, but δ 13 C showed no vertical trend, suggesting that mangroves contributed organic carbon to the entire 20-cm soil profile. The observed regional trend of SOC across mangrove expansion stages highlights the ecological impacts of warming-driven vegetation shifts in coastal wetlands, though further evidence is needed to determine the primary drivers and mechanisms, while also considering local and regional environmental factors.

Florida↗

USGS2025

Causal interpretations can be based on mechanistic knowledge

There exists a long-standing disconnect between statistical and mechanistic approaches to the development of causal understanding. Statistical approaches, which have dominated the literature, have focused on the need to obtain perfectly unbiased estimates of causal effects often using either experimental, quasi-experimental or other methods. Mechanistic approaches have instead focused on investigating how systems work by elucidating the structures and processes whereby variations in one system property can propagate to other system properties. Explicit references to ‘causal effects’ have tended to require adherence to statistical methods and standards, inadvertently downplaying the suitability of mechanistic knowledge for that purpose. It has been recently demonstrated that both mechanistic and statistical approaches can contribute to the long-term goal of developing causal knowledge and understanding. Proponents of statistical causal inference have seldom recommended that mechanistic evidence be relied upon to support causal interpretations. This paper provides a clear and thorough example where a causal interpretation can be supported based on mechanistic knowledge. Arguing for a causal interpretation based on knowledge of mechanisms has typically been an informal process and one that has thus far infrequently led to explicit declarations of causal knowledge by scientists. To overcome this problem, we illustrate a recently described procedure referred to as ‘causal knowledge analysis’ to summarize explicit support for causal interpretations. In this paper, we first clarify the basis of the long-standing disagreement by describing the crux of the problem as viewed from a statistical perspective and by describing how it can be overcome when there is sufficient mechanistic knowledge. We then offer a proof-of-concept example based on robust documentation and description of the mechanisms whereby plants causally regulate the responses of coastal marsh elevation to changes in sea level. Synthesis —The evidential requirements for declaring a relationship to be causal have been obscured until very recently, leading to a long neglect of this issue by scientists. Meanwhile, subject matter experts have accumulated a vast body of undeclared causal knowledge that we now need to recognize in order to position scientists as essential players in defending causal interpretations.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2024

Salt marsh habitats and diamondback terrapins in a rapidly changing climate: A review

The impacts associated with global climate change (e.g., sea-level rise, tropical storms, and warming temperatures) are expected to alter predator–prey interactions, foundation species, and plant community structure in coastal ecosystems. While the complex dynamics of these habitats have been examined under future climate predictions, few ecosystem models incorporate influences from fauna, such as the diamondback terrapin, the only estuarine turtle native to North America. This review examines the impacts of climate change on diamondback terrapins ( Malaclemys terrapin ) and the role that terrapins play as higher trophic level predators and keystone species in driving the dynamics of these ecosystems. We also review the potential implications of changes to terrapin populations on coastal ecosystems as a conservation challenge and suggest solutions to advance our understanding of those complex systems. Because of their role as a keystone and area-sensitive species that helps maintain healthy coastal habitats by foraging on herbivorous periwinkle snails, alterations to terrapin life history from climate change are expected, which could have significant impacts to the conservation of coastal habitats. Life history alterations could occur due to individual stressors, such as warming temperatures altering terrapin sex ratios. However, because of the complexity of these coastal systems, these stressors could also act additively or synergistically. Inclusion of faunal taxa such as the diamondback terrapin in modeling efforts examining climate change impacts to coastal ecosystems would better represent the complexity of these habitats thereby providing a more comprehensive evaluation of the entire ecosystem, resulting in more effective conservation strategies.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2024

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at San Juan National Historic Site, Puerto Rico

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at San Juan National Historic Site, Puerto Rico, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

San Juan National Historic Site↗

USGS2024

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Dry Tortugas National Park, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Dry Tortugas National Park, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida↗

USGS2024

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Biscayne National Park, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Biscayne National Park, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida↗

USGS2024

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida↗

USGS2024

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at De Soto National Memorial, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at De Soto National Memorial, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida↗