Geology topics

Research about Upper Colorado River Basin

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Upper Colorado River Basin.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Baseflow and snowmelt sustained streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin, 1986-2020

The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) faces substantial water availability limitations. Although most streamflow originates as snowmelt, the partitioning of snowmelt between surface runoff and groundwater recharge and subsequent groundwater discharge to streams is highly uncertain. On average, over half of the streamflow in the UCRB is estimated to originate from groundwater discharge to streams, highlighting the importance of baseflow in sustaining surface water. However, the historical patterns of baseflow and streamflow, along with their variability over space and time and their specific sources, remain unknown at the basin scale. This study addresses those gaps by characterizing the sources and transport pathways of both baseflow and streamflow in the UCRB at a seasonal timestep from 1986 to 2020, including the lagged delivery of subsurface water to streams beyond the current season, using coupled models of baseflow and streamflow. Between 1986 and 2020, on average 63% of UCRB streamflow originated from baseflow. About half of this baseflow took longer than one season to reach streams, and outside the snowmelt season, baseflow was the dominant source of streamflow. Snowmelt was a key source of both baseflow and streamflow. Current season snowmelt contributed 33% of streamflow via runoff, and 22% of the 29% of streamflow that originated as current season baseflow via subsurface flow to streams. Over the study period, baseflow index (BFI) declined in headwaters and increased at mid-elevations. Springtime increases in BFI demonstrate the increasingly important role baseflow plays in water supply. Identifying the sources, locations, and timing of water that contributed to the UCRB outlet can inform management of water resources in the basin.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2026

The role of groundwater in contributing to surface water salinization in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Freshwater salinization impacts the availability of water for human use and ecosystem needs worldwide. It has been estimated that total dissolved solids (TDS) in the Colorado River Basin cause $350 million/year in damages and substantial resources are devoted to reducing TDS loading to streams. This study describes the development and application of coupled watershed models that enable TDS source tracking through the subsurface and across the landscape at a seasonal timestep for 35 years in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Results indicate that, on average, 75% of TDS loading to streams originates as baseflow, and 50% of loading is lagged in delivery by longer than one season. Snowmelt was identified as a dominant process controlling the transport of lagged TDS to streams. This approach informs when and where TDS mitigation efforts may be effective in a watershed that serves as a critical water supply for the southwestern United States.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Detecting hidden sedimentary geothermal systems in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Geothermal resources exist in sedimentary rock where circulation of water for efficient extraction or storage of heat is possible. Except in rare instances where hot water is expressed at the land surface, sedimentary geothermal resources are hidden, so the identification of these systems is optimally accomplished using predictive subsurface modeling. An integrated approach using detailed paleogeographic interpretations, subsurface geologic mapping, and numerical modeling has produced regional geologic and temperature models for the Upper Colorado River Basin, a large watershed in central North America that contains many sedimentary basins. These models identify areas of hidden sedimentary geothermal resource potential in low temperature (<90°C), moderate temperature (90–150°C), and high temperature (>150°C) fairways across the study area. These models incorporate maps of key horizons in outcrop and the subsurface to create a robust structural framework that can be used to target favorable geology for natural or engineered permeability. This framework is populated with lithologies derived from detailed palaeogeographical maps and over 40,000 bottom hole temperature (BHT) values were used to create a calibrated three-dimensional (3D) temperature model across the region. The resulting maps serve as a regional sedimentary geothermal play fairway screening tool for evaluating different grades of sedimentary geothermal resources and for identifying areas of interest where more detailed, prospect-scale studies can be undertaken.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Effects of climate on temporal variability in streamflow and salinity in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Study Region The Upper Colorado River Basin, a critical water source for more than 40 million people in the western United States. Study Focus Potential decreasing streamflow and elevated salinity concentrations threaten this resource. Climate variability has a large and well-studied effect on streamflow in the basin; however, the effect on salinity loading is less understood. This study investigates how snowpack dynamics, precipitation volume, and air temperature affect both streamflow and salinity at the basin scale from water years 1986–2021. New Hydrological Insights for the Region Climate variables explained 54 % of streamflow variability and 40 % of salinity variability across the basin. Both streamflow and salinity yields have declined in response to climate variability, but their response occurs on different timescales. Streamflow is more sensitive to snowpack, whereas salinity yields respond more strongly to antecedent precipitation. The delayed response of salinity yields may obscure the effects of both climate variability and salinity control measures. Residual analysis identified subbasins where the climate-salinity relation deviated from basin-wide patterns, suggesting that possible anthropogenic or other watershed processes may influence salinity loading in these areas. These novel findings underscore the importance of accounting for climate variability when evaluating long-term trends in streamflow and salinity.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Mapping predicted ecological states at landscape scales using remote sensing data and machine learning

Dryland ecosystems, covering 45% of the Earth's land and supporting over one-third of the global population, face significant threats from land degradation and ecological state change. Managing these ecosystems is complex, and science-based frameworks like Ecological Site Descriptions and state-and-transition models are essential tools for guiding decisions to support ecological health while maintaining stakeholder values such as grazing, wildlife, and recreation. However, alignment of these frameworks with smaller scale soil survey maps limits their applicability to broader ecological processes. Here, we extend these frameworks to larger landscapes with a machine learning approach that integrates large-scale, high-resolution vegetation data with identified ecological states from a data-driven state-and-transition model developed for a landscape-scale Ecological Site Group. A “global” model, which used combined inputs from multiple remotely sensed datasets, outperformed individual dataset models based on evaluation with independent data. Ecological state maps generated through this approach broaden the utility of state-and-transition models across Ecological Site Groups, providing a more spatially robust tool for land management at watershed and larger landscape scales. These methods, and the associated ecological state maps, can help meet critical needs for improved land condition assessments that support development of resource management plans and help identify priority areas for restoration and conservation.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Specific conductance and water type as a proxy model for salinity and total dissolved solids measurements in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Salinity levels in streams and tributaries of the Colorado River Basin have been a major concern for the United States and Mexico for over 50 years as the water is used by millions of people for domestic and industrial purposes. Recently, the United States Geological Survey expanded stream monitoring networks including the number of sites where continuous (15-min) specific conductance is measured in the Colorado River Headwaters and Gunnison River Basin located east of the Colorado-Utah state line (hereafter, UCOL). The purpose of this study is to apply a proxy method to determine salinity and total dissolved solids concentrations from specific conductance and major-ion water type that is applicable to monitoring sites in the UCOL. Within the UCOL, carbonate rich waters originate from high-elevation mountain regions in the eastern UCOL, calcium sulfate rich waters are mainly found in the western half of the UCOL including the Gunnison River Basin, and waters of variable composition are found along the lower reaches of the Colorado River and Eagle River. It was found that the chemistry of sites with variable composition changes seasonally and is impacted by both geogenic and anthropogenic processes, potentially including seasonal application of deicing road salt. The specific conductance – water type proxy can be used to reliably (±10 %) predict salinity and total dissolved solids at 66 monitoring sites in the UCOL. The method is rapid, can generate high-resolution measurements, is cost-effective, and greatly expands the utility of specific conductance measurements. Furthermore, the high-resolution estimates provide an accurate approach to determining long-term salinity loads as short-term events are accurately accounted for.

Colorado↗

USGS2024

Before the fire: Predicting burn severity and potential post-fire debris-flow hazards to Colorado River Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus) conservation populations

Background Colorado River Cutthroat Trout (CRCT; Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus ) conservation populations may be at risk from wildfire and post-fire debris flows hazards. Aim To predict burn severity and potential post-fire debris flow hazard classifications to CRCT conservation populations before wildfires occur. Methods We used remote sensing, spatial analyses, and machine learning to model 28 wildfire incidents (2016–2020) and spatially predict burn severity from pre-wildfire environmental factors to evaluate the likelihood (%) and volume (m 3 ) hazard classification of post-fire debris flow. Key results Burn severity was best predicted by fuels, followed by topography, physical ecosystem conditions, and weather (mean adjusted R 2 = 0.54). Predictions of high or moderate burn severity covered 1.1 (15% of study area) and 1.5 (19% of study area) million ha, respectively, and varied by watershed. Combined high or moderate debris flow hazard classification included 80% of stream reaches with conservation populations and 97% of conservation population point nodes. Conclusions Predicted burn severity and potential post-fire debris flow indicated moderate to high hazard for CRCT conservation populations native to the Green and Yampa rivers of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Implications Future management actions can incorporate predicted burn severity and potential post-fire debris flow to mitigate impacts to CRCT and other at-risk resource values before a wildfire occurs.

Colorado, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2024

Temporal variability in irrigated land and climate influences on salinity loading across the Upper Colorado River Basin, 1986-2017

Freshwater salinization is a growing global concern impacting human and ecosystem needs with impacts to water availability for human and ecological uses. In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), dissolved solids in streams compound ongoing water supply challenges to further limit water availability and cause economic damages. Much effort has been dedicated to understanding dissolved solid sources, transport, and management in the region, yet temporal variability in loading from key sources such as irrigated lands and the influence of climate on dissolved solids loading remains unknown. Quantifying the contributions and temporal variability of dissolved solids loads from irrigated lands may benefit salinity management efforts. This study applies a time-varying (dynamic) modeling approach to predict annual dissolved solids loads across the UCRB from 1986 through 2017. Between 66% and 82% of the total accumulated dissolved solids load in the basin is from groundwater (storage and baseflow). Our findings link climate, irrigation, and groundwater, and confirm large storage contributions that have declined slightly with time. Dissolved solids loads increase during wet periods and decrease during dry periods, although the relative contributions of different sources vary little with time. Irrigation enhances loading efficiency relative to unirrigated areas through runoff and groundwater, and can locally be a major source of dissolved solids where irrigation occurs. Results indicate that loads from irrigated areas increase when irrigated area and/or water available for runoff increase. Increased regional aridification over the study period may have contributed to decreasing stream salinity through both quicker surface runoff and lagged groundwater storage processes. Study results may be relevant to salinity management in arid environments where water availability is limited and where irrigation influences salinity loading to streams.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗

USGS2024

Oil and gas development influences potential for dust emission from the Upper Colorado River Basin, USA

Wind erosion and dust emission from drylands have large consequences for ecosystem function and human health. Wind erosion is naturally reduced by soil crusting and sheltering by non-erodible roughness elements such as plants. Land uses that reduce surface roughness and disturb the soil surface can dramatically increase dust emission. Extraction of oil and gas is a common and growing land use in the western United States (US) that removes vegetation and other roughness elements for construction of well pads and unpaved access roads, resulting in thousands of small (1–4 ha), discrete patches of unprotected soil. Here, we use a satellite albedo-based model to assess the effect of oil/gas activity on surface roughness in the Uinta-Piceance Basin, an area of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) with dense oil and natural gas development and modelled how the change in surface roughness could impact aeolian sediment flux and dust emission. We also investigated how regional drought influences the response of surface roughness to well pads and access roads. Oil/gas activity reduced surface roughness and increased modelled aeolian sediment flux at the landscape scale across much of the study region, resulting in a modest increase of 10 139 kg of dust per year, which is small relative to dust loads from a single regional dust event observed in the region, but downwind impact could be significant. The magnitude of surface roughness reductions by oil/gas activity was generally consistent among land cover types. However, in parts of the basin that had high cover of annual forbs and grasses, oil/gas activity was associated with larger surface roughness and smaller potential dust emission. Drought decreased surface roughness across disturbed and undisturbed sites, but there was no interactive effect of oil/gas activity and drought on surface roughness. These results suggest that oil/gas activity may increase sediment fluxes and likely contributes to dust emission from landscapes in the UCRB. Understanding how drought and land use change contribute to dust emissions will benefit mitigation of undesirable impacts of wind erosion and dust transport.

Colorado, Utah↗

USGS2023

High resolution SnowModel simulations reveal future elevation-dependent snow loss and earlier, flashier surface water input for the Upper Colorado River Basin

Continued climate warming is reducing seasonal snowpacks in the western United States, where >50% of historical water supplies were snowmelt-derived. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, declining snow water equivalent (SWE) and altered surface water input (SWI, rainfall and snowmelt available to enter the soil) timing and magnitude affect streamflow generation and water availability. To adapt effectively to future conditions, we need to understand current spatiotemporal distributions of SWE and SWI and how they may change in future decades. We developed 100-m SnowModel simulations for water years 2001–2013 and two scenarios: control (CTL) and pseudo-global-warming (PGW). The PGW fraction of precipitation falling as snow was lower relative to CTL, except for November–April at high elevations. PGW peak SWE was lower for low (−45%) and mid elevations (−14%), while the date of peak SWE was uniformly earlier in the year for all elevations (17–23 days). Currently unmonitored high elevation snow represented a greater fraction of total PGW SWE. PGW peak daily SWI was higher for all elevations (30%–42%), while the dates of SWI peaks and centroids were earlier in the year for all elevations under PGW. PGW displayed elevated winter SWI, lower summer SWI, and changes in spring SWI timing were elevation-dependent. Although PGW peak SWI was elevated and earlier compared to CTL, SWI was more evenly distributed throughout the year for PGW. These simulated shifts in the timing and magnitude of SWE and SWI have broad implications for water management in dry, snow-dominated regions.

Colorado↗

USGS2022

A review of current capabilities and science gaps in water supply data, modeling, and trends for water availability assessments in the Upper Colorado River Basin

The Colorado River is a critical water resource in the southwestern United States, supplying drinking water for 40 million people in the region and water for irrigation of 2.2 million hectares of land. Extended drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCOL) and the prospect of a warmer climate in the future pose water availability challenges for those charged with managing the river. Limited water availability in the future also may negatively affect aquatic ecosystems and wildlife that depend upon them. Water availability components of special importance in the UCOL include streamflow, salinity in groundwater and surface water, groundwater levels and storage, and the role of snow in the UCOL water cycle. This manuscript provides a review of current “state of the science” for these UCOL water availability components with a focus on identifying gaps in data, modeling, and trends in the basin. Trends provide context for evaluations of current conditions and motivation for further investigation and modeling, models allow for investigation of processes and projections of future water availability, and data support both efforts. Information summarized in this manuscript will be valuable in planning integrated assessments of water availability in the UCOL.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2021

Upper Colorado River Basin 20th century droughts under 21st century warming: Plausible scenarios for the future

This study builds on a collaboration with a water resource management community of practice in the Upper Colorado River Basin to develop scenarios of future drought and assess impacts on water supply reliability. Water managers are concerned with the impacts of warming on water year streamflow, but uncertainties in projections of climate make the application of these projections to planning a challenge. Instead, water managers considered a plausible scenario for future drought to be historical droughts to which warming is added. We used a simple statistical model of water year streamflow with temperatures increased by 1 °C to 4 °C, and then examined reductions in flow and runoff efficiency (RE) with each degree of warming for the six droughts defined in the observed streamflow record. In order to place these results into a management context, we employed an existing framework for system reliability, and in particular, a vulnerability assessment for water delivery metrics. Using modeled streamflow resulting from 1 °C to 4 °C warming, we found vulnerable condition thresholds for the two water delivery metrics assessed, Upper Basin Shortage and Lees Ferry Deficit, were crossed relatively infrequently at +1 °C, but with a substantially increased frequency under additional warming. Results are more relevant to resource management because the impacts of warming on Upper Colorado River streamflow were assessed in the context of management metrics and vulnerability thresholds, in collaboration with members of the water management community of practice.

Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona↗

USGS2020

Holocene paleofloods and their climatological context, Upper Colorado River Basin, USA

Given its singular importance for water resources in the southwestern U.S., the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) is remarkable for the paucity of its conventional hydrological record of extreme flooding. This study uses paleoflood hydrology to examine a small portion the underutilized, but very extensive natural record of Holocene extreme floods in the UCRB. We perform a meta-analysis of 77 extreme paleofloods from seven slackwater deposit sites in the UCRB to show linkages between Holocene climate patterns and extreme floods. The analysis demonstrates several clusters of extreme flood activity: 8040-7790, 3600-3460, 2880-2740, 2330-700, and 620-0 years BP. The extreme paleofloods were found to occur during both dry and wet periods in the paleoclimate record. When compared with independent paleoclimatic records across the Rocky Mountains and the southwestern U.S., the observed temporal clustering pattern of UCRB extreme paleofloods shows associations with periods of abruptly intensified North Pacific-derived storms connected with enhanced El Niño variability.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗

USGS2020

Mercury and selenium concentrations in fishes of the Upper Colorado River Basin, southwestern United States: A retrospective assessment

Mercury (Hg) and selenium (Se) are contaminants of concern for fish in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). We explored Hg and Se in fish tissues (2,324 individuals) collected over 50 years (1962–2011) from the UCRB. Samples include native and non-native fish collected from lotic waterbodies spanning 7 major tributaries to the Colorado River. There was little variation of total mercury (THg) in fish assemblages basin-wide and only 13% (272/1959) of individual fish samples exceeded the fish health benchmark (0.27 μg THg/g ww). Most THg exceedances were observed in the White-Yampa tributary whereas the San Juan had the lowest mean THg concentration. Risks associated with THg are species specific with exceedances dominated by Colorado Pikeminnow (mean = 0.38 and standard error ± 0.08 μg THg/g ww) and Roundtail Chub (0.24 ± 0.06 μg THg/g ww). For Se, 48% (827/1720) of all individuals exceeded the fish health benchmark (5.1 μg Se/g dw). The Gunnison river had the most individual exceedances of the Se benchmark (74%) whereas the Dirty Devil had the fewest. We identified that species of management concern accumulate THg and Se to levels above risk thresholds and that fishes of the White-Yampa (THg) and Gunnison (Se) rivers are at the greatest risk in the UCRB.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗

USGS2020

Grazing-induced changes to biological soil crust cover mediate hillslope erosion in a long-term exclosure experiment

Dryland ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to erosion generated by livestock grazing. Quantifying this risk across a variety of landscape settings is essential for successful adaptive management, particularly in light of a changing climate. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, there are nearly 25 000 km 2 of rangelands with underlying soils derived from Mancos Shale, an erodible and saline geologic parent material. Salinity is a major concern within the Colorado River watershed, much of which is attributed to runoff and leaching from Mancos Shale deposits. In a 60-yr paired-watershed experiment in western Colorado, we used silt fences to measure differences in saline hillslope erosion, including both total sediment yield and concentrations of primary saline constituents (Na and Se), in watersheds that were either exposed to grazing or where livestock was excluded. After accounting for the strong effects of soil type, slope, and antecedent precipitation, we found that grazing increased sediment loss by ≈50% across our 8-yr time series (0.1–1.5 tn ha −1 ), consistent with levels reported at the watershed scale in early published work from studies at the same location. Eroded sediment Se levels were low and unaffected by grazing history, but Na concentrations were significantly reduced on grazed hillslopes, likely due to depletion of surface Na in soils exposed to chronic soil disturbance by livestock. Variable selection and path analysis identified that biological soil crust (BSC) cover, more than any other variable, explained the differences in sediment yields between grazed and ungrazed watersheds, partially through the enhancement of soil aggregate stability. Our results suggest that BSC cover should be granted heightened consideration in rangeland decision support tools (e.g., state-and-transition models) and that measures to reduce surface disturbance from livestock such as altering the timing or intensity of grazing may be effective for reducing downstream impacts.

Colorado↗

USGS2019

Salinity yield modeling of the Upper Colorado River Basin using 30-meter resolution soil maps and random forests

Salinity loading in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) costs local economies upwards of $300 million US dollars annually. Salinity source models have generally included coarse spatial data to represent non‐agriculture sources. We developed new predictive soil property and cover maps at 30 m resolution to improve source representation in salinity modeling. Salinity loading erosion risk indices were also created based on soil properties, remotely sensed bare ground exposure, and topographic factors to examine potential surface soil erosion drivers. These new maps and data from previous SPARROW models were related to recently updated records of salinity at 309 stream gauges in the UCRB using random forest regressions. Resulting salinity yield predictions indicate more diffuse salinity sources, with slightly higher yields in more arid portions of the UCRB, and less overall load coming from irrigated agricultural sources. Model simulations still indicate irrigation to be the major human source of salinity (661,000 Mg, or 12%), but also suggest that 75,000 Mg (1.4%) of annual salinity in the UCRB is coming from areas with excessive exposed bare ground in high elevation mountain areas. Model inputs allow for field scale screening of locations that could be targeted for salinity control projects. Results confirm recent studies indicating limited surface erosional influence on salinity loading in UCRB surface waters, but impacts of monsoonal runoff events are still not fully understood, particularly in drylands. The study highlights the utility of new predictive soil maps and machine learning for environmental modeling.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2018

Changing station coverage impacts temperature trends in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Over the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), temperatures in widely used gridded data products do not warm as much as mean temperatures from a stable set of U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations, located at generally lower elevations, in most months of the year. This is contrary to expectations of elevation-dependent warming, which suggests that warming increases with elevation. These findings could reflect 1) a genuine absence of elevation-dependent warming in the region, 2) systematic non-climatic influences on either the USHCN stations or high elevation stations, including known inhomogeneities related to changes in the time of observation and instrumentation, or 3) suppression of an elevation-dependent warming signal introduced by changes in the station network. While we cannot categorically dismiss the first two possibilities, we show here that over portions of the 20th century, gridded temperatures warm less than USHCN temperatures and the difference cannot be explained by accounting for known inhomogeneities. These analyses suggest that changing station coverage in the UCRB has influenced trends in gridded temperature estimates that incorporate changing suites of stations over time. Specifically, increases in the number of high-elevation stations in the UCRB may have led to an underestimation of elevation-dependent warming, particularly during the spring and summer. This phenomenon is unlikely limited to this specific basin, and may be present in other high-elevation watersheds across the western U.S.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗

USGS2018

Managing salinity in Upper Colorado River Basin streams: Selecting catchments for sediment control efforts using watershed characteristics and random forests models

Elevated concentrations of dissolved-solids (salinity) including calcium, sodium, sulfate, and chloride, among others, in the Colorado River cause substantial problems for its water users. Previous efforts to reduce dissolved solids in upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) streams often focused on reducing suspended-sediment transport to streams, but few studies have investigated the relationship between suspended sediment and salinity, or evaluated which watershed characteristics might be associated with this relationship. Are there catchment properties that may help in identifying areas where control of suspended sediment will also reduce salinity transport to streams? A random forests classification analysis was performed on topographic, climate, land cover, geology, rock chemistry, soil, and hydrologic information in 163 UCRB catchments. Two random forests models were developed in this study: one for exploring stream and catchment characteristics associated with stream sites where dissolved solids increase with increasing suspended-sediment concentration, and the other for predicting where these sites are located in unmonitored reaches. Results of variable importance from the exploratory random forests models indicate that no simple source, geochemical process, or transport mechanism can easily explain the relationship between dissolved solids and suspended sediment concentrations at UCRB monitoring sites. Among the most important watershed characteristics in both models were measures of soil hydraulic conductivity, soil erodibility, minimum catchment elevation, catchment area, and the silt component of soil in the catchment. Predictions at key locations in the basin were combined with observations from selected monitoring sites, and presented in map-form to give a complete understanding of where catchment sediment control practices would also benefit control of dissolved solids in streams.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗