Geology topics

Research about San Francisco Bay area

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including San Francisco Bay area.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Assessment of extreme subsurface hydrologic conditions captured during atmospheric river storms in the San Francisco Bay area (California, USA) with applications to shallow landslide early warning

An increase in soil pore water pressure is the typical trigger for the majority of landslides caused by rainfall. Atmospheric river storms, common to the west coast of North America during the winter season, can deliver landslide triggering rainfall resulting in severe impacts to coastal communities. Using a network of hydrologic monitoring stations situated within landslide-prone terrain in the San Francisco Bay area of California (USA), we assess the meteorologic conditions and resulting hydrologic and landslide response resulting from eight consecutive storm events that caused thousands of shallow landslides during the winter of 2022–2023. We find disparate hydrological responses and resultant degrees of observed landsliding ranging from < 1 landslide/km2 to 18 landslides/km2 at the monitoring sites that reflect the interplay and differences between rainfall delivery, subsurface hydrological characteristics, and geotechnical properties at each site. Antecedent soil moisture from both early season rainfall and the first storm in the sequence played a critical role in setting up some hillslopes for failure. Subsequent storms then generated elevated pore water pressures for several hours with associated landsliding. However, we find that the occurrence of widespread landsliding required not only sufficient pore water pressure magnitude in susceptible hillslopes, but also full and prolonged effective soil saturation throughout hillslope profiles. Landslides may still occur at lower values and durations of effective saturation but are likely to be less extensive regionally. We present these findings within the context of research directions and improvements to landslide early warning systems first suggested by researchers 40 years ago.

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USGS2026

Earthquake ground-motion model adjustments for the San Francisco Bay area

We develop adjustments to ergodic ground‐motion models (GMMs) to improve their performance in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA). GMMs are widely used in hazard assessments to estimate characteristics of ground shaking based on known properties of the source, path, and site. Such models are often developed using datasets containing records from various regions, resulting in models that represent median ground‐motion behavior, which may not adequately represent ground motions within subregions. This is true for the SFBA, where ground motions attenuate more rapidly with distance than in many other parts of California that dominate GMM databases. To support improved seismic hazard estimates in the SFBA, we calculate regional constants and anelastic attenuation coefficient adjustments relative to two commonly used ergodic GMMs: BSSA14 ( Boore et al. , 2014 ) and ASK14 ( Abrahamson et al. , 2014 ). These adjustments are obtained for a suite of ground‐motion intensity measures (peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5%‐damped pseudospectral acceleration at oscillator periods ranging from 0.075 to 10 s) using mixed‐effects regression. Use of the regionally adjusted models reduces the overall bias by up to 0.5 natural log units for BSSA14 and up to 0.6 natural log units for ASK14. We demonstrate one application of our attenuation adjustments and their implications in an earthquake early warning case study of the 2014 M 6.0 South Napa earthquake. The predicted extent of shaking using the adjusted models better matches observed shaking at large source‐to‐site distances, especially for lower shaking intensities, thus potentially reducing overalerting. We encourage the use of our model adjustments when ergodic models are considered for seismic hazard studies in the SFBA.

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USGS2025

Updating regional‐scale geospatial liquefaction models with locally available geotechnical data

We present a method to update the geospatial liquefaction model used by the U.S. Geological Survey’s near‐real‐time ground failure product with subsurface geotechnical data. The geospatial model estimates liquefaction probability from peak ground velocity (via ShakeMap) and geospatial susceptibility proxies. In many regions, additional information relevant to constraining liquefaction likelihood is also available, including surface geology maps and subsurface geotechnical measurements. There is currently no mechanism to use these data in the ground failure product liquefaction model, even though these data could provide more precise constraints on spatial variations in the lithologic character of the soil (surface geology) and direct measurements of the subsurface mechanical properties that affect liquefaction occurrence and severity (geotechnical measurements). In this study, we develop a method to integrate these data with the geospatial model and assess how these data can improve regional‐scale predictions. We develop a Bayesian updating framework and apply it to the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake, for which mapped observations are available to evaluate performance. We constrain the Bayesian framework with 373 Northern California cone penetration tests and liquefaction susceptibility classes based on the mapped surface geology. This Bayesian model incorporates geotechnical information into the geospatial model and more accurately predicts liquefaction occurrences than the geospatial model, while sacrificing less accuracy in terms of predicting the absence of liquefaction than the geotechnical model. In future applications, this approach could be adapted to update other geospatial models using locally available subsurface data.

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USGS2025

Relationship between peak and cumulative ground motions from 49 Mw 3-6 earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area

We examine the relationship between peak ground velocity (PGV) and cumulative absolute displacement (CAD) for 49 M w 3 – 6 earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and gain insight into the spatiotemporal partitioning of seismic energy in ground motion records with respect to source, path, and site effects. PGV and CAD are positively correlated, but there can be large deviations from the average trend. For example, ground motion records with either very long duration resonance or short pulse-like motions will have higher or lower CAD, respectively, but could have very similar PGV. We perform principal component analysis (PCA) on PGV-CAD for >7000 records in the SFBA with the goal of investigating what influences positive or negative anomalies in cumulative motions. PCA rotates the PGV-CAD datapoints into two principal components, where the one with the larger variance, which we call the “primary intensity” represents mostly the distance-dependence of ground motion amplitudes. The other principal component, which we call the “excess motion”, represents the deviation from cumulative motions that would be typical for a ground motion record with a given PGV. The excess motion will be positive in the case of records with long duration ringing and will be negative for short duration pulse-like ground motions. We find that excess motion is generally positive at sites in sedimentary basins and in soft sediments around the SF Bay. Excess motion is generally negative in the very near field, as well as at sites on hard bedrock. We discuss the findings here in terms of implications for seismic hazard applications and other wave propagation phenomena.

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USGS2024

Advanced quantitative precipitation information: Improving monitoring and forecasts of precipitation, streamflow, and coastal flooding in the San Francisco Bay area

Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information (AQPI) is a synergistic project that combines observations and models to improve monitoring and forecasts of precipitation, streamflow, and coastal flooding in the San Francisco Bay Area. As an experimental system, AQPI leverages more than a decade of research, innovation, and implementation of a statewide, state-of-the-art network of observations, and development of the next generation of weather and coastal forecast models. AQPI was developed as a prototype in response to requests from the water management community for improved information on precipitation, riverine, and coastal conditions to inform their decision-making processes. Observation of precipitation in the complex Bay Area landscape of California’s coastal mountain ranges is known to be a challenging problem. But, with new advanced radar network techniques, AQPI is helping fill an important observational gap for this highly populated and vulnerable metropolitan area. The prototype AQPI system consists of improved weather radar data for precipitation estimation; additional surface measurements of precipitation, streamflow, and soil moisture; and a suite of integrated forecast modeling systems to improve situational awareness about current and future water conditions from sky to sea. Together these tools will help improve emergency preparedness and public response to prevent loss of life and destruction of property during extreme storms accompanied by heavy precipitation and high coastal water levels—especially high-moisture laden atmospheric rivers. The Bay Area AQPI system could potentially be replicated in other urban regions in California, the United States, and worldwide.

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USGS2024

A partially nonergodic ground-motion model for Fourier amplitude spectra for the San Francisco Bay area, California, USA

We develop a partially nonergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for Fourier amplitude spectra for the San Francisco Bay Area, California, USA, using the Bayless and Abrahamson (2019) GMM as a reference ergodic GMM and developing location-dependent adjustments to the predicted median and variance. We compile regional ground-motion data from moment magnitude (𝑀 w ) >3 earthquakes occurring during 2000–2022 for which magnitude information is available in the U.S. Geological Survey Comprehensive Catalog (Guy et al., 2015). The data set predominantly consists of records from 𝑀 w 3.5–4.5 earthquakes but includes three well-recorded 𝑀 w > 5 events. Ground-motion residuals are evaluated using the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m (𝑉 S30 ) from the California-specific map of Thompson et al. (2018) and basin-depth site parameters from the seismic velocity model of Aagaard and Hirakawa (2021). The 𝑉 S30 dependence and basin-depth scaling of the reference ergodic GMM of Bayless and Abrahamson (2019) are evaluated and modified with the updated data set. We compute maps of site adjustments using a varying-coefficient model that considers the spatial correlation structure and uncertainties at each observation location. The spatial covariance model is developed using ground-motion residuals that are standardized by the uncertainty model, which allows for consideration of the aleatory variability in developing the site adjustments. The covariance model is fit considering the means and standard deviations of the site terms at all locations. The use of partially nonergodic median adjustments results in modified variance components of the within-event variability. Due to the low number of large-magnitude earthquakes that control seismic hazard in the data set, we do not modify between-event variance; however, we present adjustments to site-to-site variability for use in partially nonergodic hazard assessments.

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USGS2023

The long shadow of a major disaster: Modeled dynamic impacts of the hypothetical HayWired earthquake on California’s economy

We develop and apply a dynamic economic simulation model to analyze the multi-regional impacts of, and mechanisms of recovery from, a major disaster, the HayWired scenario — a hypothetical Magnitude 7.0 earthquake affecting California’s San Francisco Bay Area. The model integrates loss pathways: capital stock damage, labor supply shocks due to short-term population displacement and longer-run out-migration from damaged areas, and the exacerbating effects of damage to transportation infrastructure capital, as well as various aspects of static and dynamic economic resilience. With input substitution-based static inherent resilience and dynamic resilience in the form of optimal intertemporal and spatial investment allocation, gross output losses range from 0.5 percent to 6 percent across regions, and welfare losses are 0.4 percent statewide but can be ten times as large in hardest-hit areas. Large-scale reconstruction investment is supported by substantial interregional transfers of resources through intra-state trade. Increased output via firms engaging in the key adaptive resilience tactic of production recapture can alleviate a substantial fraction of losses—but only if upstream and downstream barriers to recovery can be lowered quickly.

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USGS2022

Ocean connectivity drives trophic support for consumers in an intermittently closed coastal lagoon

Estuarine food webs are complex, as marine, freshwater, and terrestrial inputs combine and contribute variable amounts of organic material. Seasonal fluctuations in precipitation amplify the dynamism inherent to estuarine food webs, particularly in lagoonal estuaries, which can be seasonally closed and disconnected from the ocean in low-runoff periods (bar-built lagoons). Despite their abundance along coastlines in Mediterranean climates, the organic matter sources fueling bar-built lagoon food webs are poorly understood, particularly with respect to seasonal hydrologic variability, episodic marine connections, and internal nutrient cycling. In this study, we evaluate the food web of a bar-built lagoon with respect to seasonal differences in lagoon water quality, the sources of organic matter which support consumers, and the trophic ecology of resident fishes. Observed water quality conditions reflected biogeochemical processes associated with salinity-driven stratification and high lagoon residence times and were associated with strong seasonal differences in the contribution of different organic matter sources to lagoon consumers. A variety of organic matter sources supported consumers; marine inputs were important to lagoon food webs in spring when the lagoon was open, while summer food webs were largely driven by phytoplankton which was likely fueled by internal nutrient cycling. Fish diets were largely comprised of crustaceans and fish eggs, with clearly defined trophic niches in spring but high overlap in summer. This study demonstrates that the seasonal changes in bar-built lagoon food webs are largely dependent on ocean connectivity and internal cycling within the lagoon, rather than watershed processes as is typical for many estuaries.

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USGS2022

Estimates of kappa in the San Francisco Bay area

Site characterization is a critical component of seismic hazards studies, especially in the development and use of ground motion models (GMMs). One such parameter, kappa ( Κ 0 ), represents local site attenuation and effectively describes regional variations in ground motion [1]. However, estimates of Κ 0 are limited. We estimate the site parameter Κ 0 for 296 broadband and accelerometer stations in the San Francisco Bay area using 225 local events with M>3.5. We first invert for kappa on the high-frequency slope of every record at a station, which represents full attenuation effects [2]. We then perform weighted regression of kappa versus distance to obtain expected kappa at the site ( Κ 0 ). We find that Κ 0 varies extensively in the San Francisco Bay area, with values ranging from 0.004-0.113 s, thus representing the heterogeneous geologic conditions in the region. Κ 0 estimates from this study will be useful to consider in future seismic hazard analyses and ground motion studies in the Bay Area.

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USGS2021

A simplified method for rapid estimation of emergency water supply needs after earthquakes

Researchers are investigating the problem of estimating households with potable water service outages soon after an earthquake. Most of these modeling approaches are computationally intensive, have large proprietary data collection requirements or lack precision, making them unfeasible for rapid assessment, prioritization, and allocation of emergency water resources in large, complex disasters. This study proposes a new simplified analytical method—performed without proprietary water pipeline data—to estimate water supply needs after earthquakes, and a case study of its application in the HayWired earthquake scenario. In the HayWired scenario—a moment magnitude (M w ) 7.0 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area, California (USA)—an analysis of potable water supply in two water utility districts was performed using the University of Colorado Water Network (CUWNet) model. In the case study, application of the simplified method extends these estimates of household water service outage to the nine counties adjacent to the San Francisco Bay, aggregated by a ~250 m 2 (nine-arcsecond) grid. The study estimates about 1.38 million households (3.7 million residents) out of 7.6 million residents (2017, ambient, nighttime population) with potable water service outage soon after the earthquake—about an 8% increase from the HayWired scenario estimates.

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USGS2021

Unsaturated flow processes and the onset of seasonal deformation in slow-moving landslides

Predicting rainfall-induced landslide motion is challenging because shallow groundwater flow is extremely sensitive to the preexisting moisture content in the ground. Here, we use groundwater hydrology theory and numerical modeling combined with five years of field monitoring to illustrate how unsaturated groundwater flow processes modulate the seasonal pore water pressure rise and therefore the onset of motion for slow-moving landslides. The onset of landslide motion at Oak Ridge earthflow in California’s Diablo Range occurs after an abrupt water table rise to near the landslide surface 52–129 days after seasonal rainfall commences. Model results and theory suggest that this abrupt rise occurs from the advection of a nearly saturated wetting front, which marks the leading edge of the integrated downward flux of seasonal rainfall, to the water table. Prior to this abrupt rise, we observe little measured pore water pressure response within the landslide due to rainfall. However, once the wetting front reaches the water table, we observe nearly instantaneous pore water pressure transmission within the landslide body that is accompanied by landslide acceleration. We cast the timescale to reach a critical pore water pressure threshold using a simple mass balance model that considers variable moisture storage with depth and explains the onset of seasonal landslide motion with a rainfall intensity-duration threshold. Our model shows that the seasonal response time of slow-moving landslides is controlled by the dry season vadose zone depth rather than the total landslide thickness.

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USGS2021

Global biotic events evident in the Paleogene marine strata of the eastern San Francisco Bay area, California

Paleogene marine strata in the eastern San Francisco Bay area are exposed in discontinuous outcrops in the various tectonic blocks. Although there are many missing intervals, the strata were previously thought to span most of the Paleocene and Eocene. Revision of biochronology and calibration to the international time scale as well as to the global oxygen isotope curve and sea-level curves indicate that the strata are latest Paleocene through middle Eocene in age and contain faunal changes that are linked to the overall global climate trends and hyperthermals of that time. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum, third Eocene thermal maximum, early Eocene climatic optimum, and middle Eocene climatic optimum are all identified in the eastern San Francisco Bay marine strata. The dominance of smoothly finished, dissolution-resistant agglutinated benthic foraminiferal species corresponds with a rapid shoaling and rapid deepening (overcorrection) of the calcium compensation depth associated with the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. The benthic foraminiferal extinction event was a dramatic turnover of benthic foraminiferal species that occurred shortly after the onset of the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. Opportunistic species such as Bulimina , which indicate environmental stress and lower oxygen conditions, are commonly associated with the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. Environmental changes similar to those observed during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum also characterize the third Eocene thermal maximum, based on the agglutinated and opportunistic species. The early Eocene climatic optimum is noted by the presence of foraminiferal assemblages that indicate a stable, warmer water mass, abundant food, and an influx of terrigenous material. The onset and end of the middle Eocene climatic optimum are recognized by the dominance of siliceous microfossils. This research updates the age and environmental interpretations of the Paleogene formations occurring in the vicinity of Mount Diablo, eastern San Francisco Bay area. The revised interpretations, which are based on foraminifers and calcareous nannoplankton, make it possible to identify various global climatic and biotic events.

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USGS2017

San Francisco Bay living shorelines: Restoring Eelgrass and Olympia Oysters for habitat and shore protection

Living shorelines projects utilize a suite of sediment stabilization and habitat restoration techniques to maintain or build the shoreline, while creating habitat for a variety of species, including invertebrates, fish, and birds (see National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] 2015 for an overview). The term “living shorelines” denotes provision of living space and support for estuarine and coastal organisms through the strategic placement of native vegetation and natural materials. This green coastal infrastructure can serve as an alternative to bulkheads and other engineering solutions that provide little to no habitat in comparison (Arkema et al. 2013; Gittman et al. 2014; Scyphers et al. 2011). In the United States, the living shorelines approach has been implemented primarily on the East and Gulf Coasts, where it has been shown to enhance habitat values and increase connectivity between wetlands, mudflats, and subtidal lands, while reducing shoreline erosion during storms and even hurricanes (Currin et al. 2015; Gittman et al. 2014, 2015).

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USGS2015

Estimation of historic flows and sediment loads to San Francisco Bay,1849–2011

River flow and sediment transport in estuaries influence morphological development over decadal and century time scales, but hydrological and sedimentological records are typically too short to adequately characterize long-term trends. In this study, we recover archival records and apply a rating curve approach to develop the first instrumental estimates of daily delta inflow and sediment loads to San Francisco Bay (1849–1929). The total sediment load is constrained using sedimentation/erosion estimated from bathymetric survey data to produce continuous daily sediment transport estimates from 1849 to 1955, the time period prior to sediment load measurements. We estimate that ∼55% (45–75%) of the ∼1500 ± 400 million tons (Mt) of sediment delivered to the estuary between 1849 and 2011 was the result of anthropogenic alteration in the watershed that increased sediment supply. Also, the seasonal timing of sediment flux events has shifted because significant spring-melt floods have decreased, causing estimated springtime transport (April 1st to June 30th) to decrease from ∼25% to ∼15% of the annual total. By contrast, wintertime sediment loads (December 1st to March 31st) have increased from ∼70% to ∼80%. A ∼35% reduction of annual flow since the 19th century along with decreased sediment supply has resulted in a ∼50% reduction in annual sediment delivery. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other systems for which unanalyzed historic data exist.

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USGS2012

Geodetic estimate of coseismic slip during the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake

Offsets in the relative positions of geodetic stations resulting from the Loma Prieta earthquake can be explained with a dislocation model that includes buried oblique slip on a rupture surface extending 37 km along the strike of the San Andreas fault, dipping 70° to the SW, and extending from a depth of about 5 to 17.5 km. Assuming uniform slip on a rectangular surface, the mean values for a range of reasonable fault geometries are 1.6 ± 0.3 m right‐lateral strike slip and 1.2 ±0.3 m reverse slip. Slip on an adjacent extension of the rupture to the southeast, recorded in the aftershock sequence, is not well constrained by the geodetic data. The geodetic data clearly preclude rupture extending near the surface.

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USGS2012

Historic creep rate and potential for seismic slip along the Hayward Fault, California

The Hayward fault is considered the most likely source of one or more major earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area in the next few decades. Historically, at least one, and probably two, major earthquakes (about M 6.8) occurred along the Hayward fault, one in 1836 and another in 1868. Little is known about the 1836 event, but the 1868 earthquake was accompanied by a surface rupture that extended as much as 41 km along the southern part of the fault. Although the amount of surface slip in 1868 is uncertain, right slip (including afterslip) reached at least several centimeters, and possibly several decimeters in places. This paper documents the spatial variation of creep rate along the Hayward fault since the 1868 earthquake. Creep (aseismic fault slip) occurs over at least 66 km and may extend over the fault's entire 82-km length, of which about 13 km lies underwater. Creep rate seems nearly constant over decades, but short-term variations occur. We derive creep rate mainly from our own systematic surveying of offset cultural features (curbs, fences, and buildings). On each feature we solve directly for accumulated creep by using multiple linear regression. Creep rate mostly falls in the range of 3.5–6.5 mm/yr; but systematic variation occurs along strike. Fault segments with distinctly higher and lower rates generally correspond to parts of the fault most salient from the overall average alinement of the fault. Most distinctive is a 4-km-long section near the south end of the fault that creeps at about 9 mm/yr. Such a high rate has occurred there at least since the 1920s and probably since the 1868 earthquake, as indicated by an offset railroad track built in 1869. We suggest that this 9 mm/yr slip rate may approach the long-term or deep slip rate that controls average recurrence interval between major earthquakes. If so, assuming an elastic rebound model, the potential for slip in large earthquakes below the surficial creeping zone is now &sim;1.1 m in the southern (1868) segment of the fault and ≥ 1.4 m in the northern (1836?) segment. Subtracting surface creep rates from a long-term slip rate of 9 mm/yr gives present potential for surface slip in large earthquakes of up to 0.8 m, with an average of 0.6 m in the northern segment and 0.4 m in the southern segment. We present a simple hypothesis for rupture potential that is compatible with historic creep rate, microseismicity distribution, and geodetic data. If seismic rupture occurs on segments 41 km long by 10 km deep (7 km fully locked, 3 km creeping), today's potential for seismic moment release is 1.4 × 10 19 and 1.1 × 10 19 N m for both 1836? and 1868 segments, respectively, and 2.5 × 10 19 N m for both segments jointly. Converting moment to magnitude gives M L 6.8 in the northern segment, M L 6.7 in the southern segment, and M L 7.0 for simultaneous rupture of both.

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USGS2007

Seismic velocity structure and seismotectonics of the eastern San Francisco Bay region, California

The Hayward Fault System is considered the most likely fault system in the San Francisco Bay Area, California, to produce a major earthquake in the next 30 years. To better understand this fault system, we use microseismicity to study its structure and kinematics. We present a new 3D seismic-velocity model for the eastern San Francisco Bay region, using microseismicity and controlled sources, which reveals a ∼10% velocity contrast across the Hayward fault in the upper 10 km, with higher velocity in the Franciscan Complex to the west relative to the Great Valley Sequence to the east. This contrast is imaged more sharply in our localized model than in previous regional-scale models. Thick Cenozoic sedimentary basins, such as the Livermore basin, which may experience particularly strong shaking during an earthquake, are imaged in the model.

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USGS2005

The San Andreas Fault in the San Francisco Bay area, California: A geology fieldtrip guidebook to selected stops on public lands

This guidebook contains a series of geology fieldtrips with selected destinations along the San Andreas Fault in part of the region that experienced surface rupture during the Great San Francisco Earthquake of 1906. Introductory materials present general information about the San Andreas Fault System, landscape features, and ecological factors associated with faults in the South Bay, Santa Cruz Mountains, the San Francisco Peninsula, and the Point Reyes National Seashore regions. Trip stops include roadside areas and recommended hikes along regional faults and to nearby geologic and landscape features that provide opportunities to make casual observations about the geologic history and landscape evolution. Destinations include the sites along the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in the San Juan Bautista and Hollister region. Stops on public land along the San Andreas Fault in the Santa Cruz Mountains in Santa Clara and Santa Cruz counties include in the Loma Prieta summit area, Forest of Nicene Marks State Park, Lexington County Park, Sanborn County Park, Castle Rock State Park, and the Mid Peninsula Open Space Preserve. Destinations on the San Francisco Peninsula and along the coast in San Mateo County include the Crystal Springs Reservoir area, Mussel Rock Park, and parts of Golden Gate National Recreation Area, with additional stops associated with the San Gregorio Fault system at Montara State Beach, the James F. Fitzgerald Preserve, and at Half Moon Bay. Field trip destinations in the Point Reyes National Seashore and vicinity provide information about geology and character of the San Andreas Fault system north of San Francisco.

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