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Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Canada, United States.

At least 757 records · Page 42Linked to original sources

Tracing chlorine sources of thermal and mineral springs along and across the Cascade Range using halogen and chlorine isotope compositions

In order to provide constraints on the sources of chlorine in spring waters associated with arc volcanism, the major/minor element concentrations and stable isotope compositions of chlorine, oxygen, and hydrogen were measured in 28 thermal and mineral springs along the Cascade Range in northwestern USA. Chloride concentrations in the springs range from 64 to 19,000 mg/L and View the MathML source values range from +0.2‰ to +1.9‰ (average=+1.0±0.4‰), with no systematic variation along or across the arc, nor correlations with their presumed underlying basement lithologies. Additionally, nine geochemically well-characterized lavas from across the Mt. St. Helens/Mt. Adams region of the Cascade Range (Leeman et al., 2004 and Leeman et al., 2005) were analyzed for their halogen concentrations and Cl isotope compositions. In the arc lavas, Cl and Br concentrations from the volcanic front are higher than in lavas from the forearc and backarc. F and I concentrations progressively decrease from forearc to backarc, similar to the trend documented for B in most arcs. View the MathML source values of the lavas range from −0.1 to +0.8‰ (average = +0.4±0.3‰). Our results suggest that the predominantly positive View the MathML source values observed in the springs are consistent with water interaction with underlying 37Cl-enriched basalt and/or altered oceanic crust, thereby making thermal spring waters a reasonable proxy for the Cl isotope compositions of associated volcanic rocks in the Cascades. However, waters with View the MathML source values >+1.0‰ also suggest additional contributions of chlorine degassed from cooling magmas due to subsurface vapor–liquid HCl fractionation in which Cl is lost to the aqueous fluid phase and 37Cl is concentrated in the ascending magmatic HCl vapor. Future work is necessary to better constrain Cl isotope behavior during volcanic degassing and fluid–rock interaction in order to improve volatile flux estimates through subduction zones.

Cascade Range↗

Spatial synchrony in cisco recruitment

We examined the spatial scale of recruitment variability for disparate cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) populations in the Great Lakes ( n = 8) and Minnesota inland lakes ( n = 4). We found that the scale of synchrony was approximately 400 km when all available data were utilized; much greater than the 50-km scale suggested for freshwater fish populations in an earlier global analysis. The presence of recruitment synchrony between Great Lakes and inland lake cisco populations supports the hypothesis that synchronicity is driven by climate and not dispersal. We also found synchrony in larval densities among three Lake Superior populations separated by 25–275 km, which further supports the hypothesis that broad-scale climatic factors are the cause of spatial synchrony. Among several candidate climate variables measured during the period of larval cisco emergence, maximum wind speeds exhibited the most similar spatial scale of synchrony to that observed for cisco. Other factors, such as average water temperatures, exhibited synchrony on broader spatial scales, which suggests they could also be contributing to recruitment synchrony. Our results provide evidence that abiotic factors can induce synchronous patterns of recruitment for populations of cisco inhabiting waters across a broad geographic range, and show that broad-scale synchrony of recruitment can occur in freshwater fish populations as well as those from marine systems.

Minnesota↗

Artificial reefs and reef restoration in the Laurentian Great Lakes

We reviewed the published literature to provide an inventory of Laurentian Great Lakes artificial reef projects and their purposes. We also sought to characterize physical and biological monitoring for artificial reef projects in the Great Lakes and determine the success of artificial reefs in meeting project objectives. We found records of 6 artificial reefs in Lake Erie, 8 in Lake Michigan, 3 in Lakes Huron and Ontario, and 2 in Lake Superior. We found 9 reefs in Great Lakes connecting channels and 6 reefs in Great Lakes tributaries. Objectives of artificial reef creation have included reducing impacts of currents and waves, providing safe harbors, improving sport-fishing opportunities, and enhancing/restoring fish spawning habitats. Most reefs in the lakes themselves were incidental (not created purposely for fish habitat) or built to improve local sport fishing, whereas reefs in tributaries and connecting channels were more frequently built to benefit fish spawning. Levels of assessment of reef performance varied; but long-term monitoring was uncommon as was assessment of physical attributes. Artificial reefs were often successful at attracting recreational species and spawning fish; however, population-level benefits of artificial reefs are unclear. Stressors such as sedimentation and bio-fouling can limit the effectiveness of artificial reefs as spawning enhancement tools. Our investigation underscores the need to develop standard protocols for monitoring the biological and physical attributes of artificial structures. Further, long-term monitoring is needed to assess the benefits of artificial reefs to fish populations and inform future artificial reef projects.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Non-stationary recruitment dynamics of rainbow smelt: the influence of environmental variables and variation in size structure and length-at-maturation

Fish stock-recruitment dynamics may be difficult to elucidate because of nonstationary relationships resulting from shifting environmental conditions and fluctuations in important vital rates such as individual growth or maturation. The Great Lakes have experienced environmental stressors that may have changed population demographics and stock-recruitment relationships while causing the declines of several prey fish species, including rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ). We investigated changes in the size and maturation of rainbow smelt in Lake Michigan and Lake Huron and recruitment dynamics of the Lake Michigan stock over the past four decades. Mean lengths and length-at-maturation of rainbow smelt generally declined over time in both lakes. To evaluate recruitment, we used both a Ricker model and a Kalman filter-random walk (KF-RW) model which incorporated nonstationarity in stock productivity by allowing the productivity term to vary over time. The KF-RW model explained nearly four times more variation in recruitment than the Ricker model, indicating the productivity of the Lake Michigan stock has increased. By accounting for this nonstationarity, we were able identify significant variations in stock productivity, evaluate its importance to rainbow smelt recruitment, and speculate on potential environmental causes for the shift. Our results suggest that investigating mechanisms driving nonstationary shifts in stock-recruit relationships can provide valuable insights into temporal variation in fish population dynamics.

Lake Huron, Lake Michigan↗

From yellow perch to round goby: A review of double-crested cormorant diet and fish consumption at three St. Lawrence River colonies, 1999–2013

The number of double-crested cormorants ( Phalacrocorax auritus ) in the upper St. Lawrence River has increased markedly since the early 1990s. In 1999, a binational study was initiated to examine the annual diet composition and fish consumption of cormorants at colonies in the upper river. Since 1999, 14,032 cormorant pellets, collected from May through September each year, have been examined from St. Lawrence River colonies to estimate fish consumption and determine temporal and spatial variation in diet. Seasonal variation in diet composition within a colony was low. Prior to 2006 yellow perch was the primary fish consumed by cormorants in the upper St. Lawrence River. Round goby were first observed in cormorant diets in 2003 and by 2006 were the main fish consumed at two of the three colonies. The time interval it took from the first appearance of round goby in the diet at a colony to when goby were the dominant prey species varied by island, ranging from two to five years. Daily fish consumption at each cormorant colony increased significantly from the pre-round goby to post-round goby period. The mean annual biomass of yellow perch consumed decreased significantly during the post-round goby period at the three colonies. Reduced consumption of yellow perch by cormorants may alleviate suspected localized impacts on perch near some of the larger river colonies.

New York, Ontario↗

Sea lamprey mark type, marking rate, and parasite-host relationships for lake trout and other species in Lake Ontario

We examined how attack frequency by sea lampreys on fishes in Lake Ontario varied in response to sea lamprey abundance and preferred host abundance (lake trout > 433 mm). For this analysis we used two gill net assessment surveys, one angler creel survey, three salmonid spawning run datasets, one adult sea lamprey assessment, and a bottom trawl assessment of dead lake trout. The frequency of fresh sea lamprey marks observed on lake trout from assessment surveys was strongly related to the frequency of sea lamprey attacks observed on salmon and trout from the creel survey and spawning migrations. Attack frequencies on all salmonids examined were related to the ratio between the abundances of adult sea lampreys and lake trout. Reanalysis of the susceptibility to sea lamprey attack for lake trout strains stocked into Lake Ontario reaffirmed that Lake Superior strain lake trout were among the most and Seneca Lake strain among the least susceptible and that Lewis Lake strain lake trout were even more susceptible than the Superior strain. Seasonal attack frequencies indicated that as the number of observed sea lamprey attacks decreased during June–September, the ratio of healing to fresh marks also decreased. Simulation of the ratios of healing to fresh marks indicated that increased lethality of attacks by growing sea lampreys contributed to the decline in the ratios and supported laboratory studies about wound healing duration.

Lake Ontario↗

A spatial classification and database for management, research, and policy making: The Great Lakes aquatic habitat framework

Managing the world's largest and most complex freshwater ecosystem, the Laurentian Great Lakes, requires a spatially hierarchical basin-wide database of ecological and socioeconomic information that is comparable across the region. To meet such a need, we developed a spatial classification framework and database — Great Lakes Aquatic Habitat Framework (GLAHF). GLAHF consists of catchments, coastal terrestrial, coastal margin, nearshore, and offshore zones that encompass the entire Great Lakes Basin. The catchments captured in the database as river pour points or coastline segments are attributed with data known to influence physicochemical and biological characteristics of the lakes from the catchments. The coastal terrestrial zone consists of 30-m grid cells attributed with data from the terrestrial region that has direct connection with the lakes. The coastal margin and nearshore zones consist of 30-m grid cells attributed with data describing the coastline conditions, coastal human disturbances, and moderately to highly variable physicochemical and biological characteristics. The offshore zone consists of 1.8-km grid cells attributed with data that are spatially less variable compared with the other aquatic zones. These spatial classification zones and their associated data are nested within lake sub-basins and political boundaries and allow the synthesis of information from grid cells to classification zones, within and among political boundaries, lake sub-basins, Great Lakes, or within the entire Great Lakes Basin. This spatially structured database could help the development of basin-wide management plans, prioritize locations for funding and specific management actions, track protection and restoration progress, and conduct research for science-based decision making.

Great Lakes↗

Lake Ontario water quality during the 2003 and 2008 intensive field years and comparison with long-term trends

Phosphorus loading declined between the 1970s and the 1990s, leading to oligotrophication of the offshore waters of Lake Ontario during that time period. Using lake-wide data from the intensive field years of 2003 and 2008 and from available long-term data sets on several trophic state indicators (total phosphorus [TP], soluble reactive silica [SRSi], chlorophyll a and Secchi disc transparency [SDT]), we tested the hypothesis that oligotrophication of the offshore waters of Lake Ontario has continued in the 2000s. Significant differences between 2003 and 2008 include higher spring (April) TP, SRSi, and SDT in 2008, lower summer (July–August) SDT in 2008, higher summer chlorophyll a in 2008, and lower fall (September) TP, SRSi, and chlorophyll a in 2008. The decline in SRSi from spring to summer was greater in 2008 than in 2003. Change point and regression analyses on the long-term data revealed no trend in spring TP since 1996, in summer chlorophyll a since 1994, in spring SDT since 1998, in spring SRSi or SRSi decline from spring to summer since 1999, or in summer SDT since 2001. Neither the comparison of the 2003 and 2008 surveys nor the analysis of the long-term data supported our hypothesis of continued oligotrophication of the offshore of Lake Ontario in the 2000s.

Lake Ontario↗

SHRIMP U–Pb and REE data pertaining to the origins of xenotime in Belt Supergroup rocks: evidence for ages of deposition, hydrothermal alteration, and metamorphism

The Belt–Purcell Supergroup, northern Idaho, western Montana, and southern British Columbia, is a thick succession of Mesoproterozoic sedimentary rocks with an age range of about 1470–1400 Ma. Stratigraphic layers within several sedimentary units were sampled to apply the new technique of U–Pb dating of xenotime that sometimes forms as rims on detrital zircon during burial diagenesis; xenotime also can form epitaxial overgrowths on zircon during hydrothermal and metamorphic events. Belt Supergroup units sampled are the Prichard and Revett Formations in the lower Belt, and the McNamara and Garnet Range Formations and Pilcher Quartzite in the upper Belt. Additionally, all samples that yielded xenotime were also processed for detrital zircon to provide maximum age constraints for the time of deposition and information about provenances; the sample of Prichard Formation yielded monazite that was also analyzed. Ten xenotime overgrowths from the Prichard Formation yielded a U–Pb age of 1458 ± 4 Ma. However, because scanning electron microscope – backscattered electrons (SEM–BSE) imagery suggests complications due to possible analysis of multiple age zones, we prefer a slightly older age of 1462 ± 6 Ma derived from the three oldest samples, within error of a previous U–Pb zircon age on the syn-sedimentary Plains sill. We interpret the Prichard xenotime as diagenetic in origin. Monazite from the Prichard Formation, originally thought to be detrital, yielded Cretaceous metamorphic ages. Xenotime from the McNamara and Garnet Range Formations and Pilcher Quartzite formed at about 1160– 1050 Ma, several hundred million years after deposition, and probably also experienced Early Cretaceous growth. These xenotime overgrowths are interpreted as metamorphic–diagenetic in origin (i.e., derived during greenschist facies metamorphism elsewhere in the basin, but deposited in sub-greenschist facies rocks). Several xenotime grains are older detrital grains of igneous derivation. A previous study on the Revett Formation at the Spar Lake Ag–Cu deposit provides data for xenotime overgrowths in several ore zones formed by hydrothermal processes; herein, those results are compared with data from newly analyzed diagenetic, metamorphic, and magmatic xenotime overgrowths. The origin of a xenotime overgrowth is reflected in its rareearth element (REE) pattern. Detrital (i.e., igneous) xenotime has a large negative Eu anomaly and is heavy rare-earth element (HREE)-enriched (similar to REE in igneous zircon). Diagenetic xenotime has a small negative Eu anomaly and flat HREE (Tb to Lu). Hydrothermal xenotime is depleted in light rare-earth element (LREE), has a small negative Eu anomaly, and decreasing HREE. Metamorphic xenotime is very LREE-depleted, has a very small negative Eu anomaly, and is strongly depleted in HREE (from Gd to Lu). Because these characteristics seem to be process related, they may be useful for interpretation of xenotime of unknown origin. The occurrence of 1.16–1.05 Ga metamorphic xenotime, in the apparent absence of pervasive deformation structures, suggests that the heating may be related to poorly understood regional heating due to broad regional underplating of mafic magma. These results may be additional evidence (together with published ages from metamorphic titanite, zircon, monazite, and garnet) for an enigmatic, Grenville-age metamorphic event that is more widely recognized in the southwestern and eastern United States

Alberta, British Columbia, Idaho, Montana, Oregon,↗

Coupling age-structured stock assessment and fish bioenergetics models: a system of time-varying models for quantifying piscivory patterns during the rapid trophic shift in the main basin of Lake Huron

We quantified piscivory patterns in the main basin of Lake Huron during 1984–2010 and found that the biomass transfer from prey fish to piscivores remained consistently high despite the rapid major trophic shift in the food webs. We coupled age-structured stock assessment models and fish bioenergetics models for lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ), Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), walleye ( Sander vitreus ), and lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ). The model system also included time-varying parameters or variables of growth, length–mass relations, maturity schedules, energy density, and diets. These time-varying models reflected the dynamic connections that a fish cohort responded to year-to-year ecosystem changes at different ages and body sizes. We found that the ratio of annual predation by lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye combined with the biomass indices of age-1 and older alewives ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) and rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) increased more than tenfold during 1987–2010, and such increases in predation pressure were structured by relatively stable biomass of the three piscivores and stepwise declines in the biomass of alewives and rainbow smelt. The piscivore stability was supported by the use of alternative energy pathways and changes in relative composition of the three piscivores. In addition, lake whitefish became a new piscivore by feeding on round goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ). Their total fish consumption rivaled that of the other piscivores combined, although fish were still a modest proportion of their diet. Overall, the use of alternative energy pathways by piscivores allowed the increases in predation pressure on dominant diet species.

Lake Huron↗

High-tech or field techs: Radio-telemetry is a cost-effective method for reducing bias in songbird nest searching

We compared the efficacy of standard nest-searching methods with finding nests via radio-tagged birds to assess how search technique influenced our determination of nest-site characteristics and nest success for Golden-winged Warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ). We also evaluated the cost-effectiveness of using radio-tagged birds to find nests. Using standard nest-searching techniques for 3 populations, we found 111 nests in locations with habitat characteristics similar to those described in previous studies: edges between forest and relatively open areas of early successional vegetation or shrubby wetlands, with 43% within 5 m of forest edge. The 83 nests found using telemetry were about half as likely (23%) to be within 5 m of forest edge. We spent little time searching >25 m into forest because published reports state that Golden-winged Warblers do not nest there. However, 14 nests found using telemetry (18%) were >25 m into forest. We modeled nest success using nest-searching method, nest age, and distance to forest edge as explanatory variables. Nest-searching method explained nest success better than nest age alone; we estimated that nests found using telemetry were 10% more likely to fledge young than nests found using standard nest-searching methods. Although radio-telemetry was more expensive than standard nest searching, the cost-effectiveness of both methods differed depending on searcher experience, amount of equipment owned, and bird population density. Our results demonstrate that telemetry can be an effective method for reducing bias in Golden-winged Warbler nest samples, can be cost competitive with standard nest-searching methods in some situations, and is likely to be a useful approach for finding nests of other forest-nesting songbirds.

Manitoba, Minnesota↗

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Alaska↗

Data from the 2011 International Piping Plover Census

This report provides results from the 2011 International Census of Piping Plovers ( Charadrius melodus ). Distribution and abundance data for wintering and breeding Piping Plovers are summarized in tabular format. An appendix provides census data for every site surveyed in every state, province, and island. The 2011 winter census resulted in the observation of 3,973 Piping Plovers. Expanded coverage outside of the United States led to the discovery of more than 1,000 Piping Plovers wintering in the Bahamas. The breeding census detected 2,771 birds in Atlantic Canada and the Plains, Prairies, and Great Lakes regions of the United States and Canada. Combining the census count with the U.S. Atlantic “window census” provides a total minimum estimate of 5,723 breeding birds for the species.

Data Series↗

National assessment of shoreline change: a GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the north coast of Alaska, U.S.-Canadian border to Icy Cape

The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska is an area of strategic economic importance to the United States, is home to remote Native communities, and encompasses unique habitats of global significance. Coastal erosion along the Arctic coast is chronic, widespread, and may be accelerating, which threatens defense- and energy-related infrastructure, natural shoreline habitats, and Native communities. There is an increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present shoreline changes across the United States. To meet these national needs, the Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey is compiling existing reliable historical shoreline data along sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Alaska and Hawaii under the National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project (hereafter referred to as the "National Assessment project"; http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/shoreline-change/ ). A comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and rates of shoreline change for Alaska, from the U.S.-Canadian border to Icy Cape, is presented in this report as part of the National Assessment project. There is no widely accepted standard for analyzing shoreline change. Existing shoreline data measurements and rate calculation methods vary from study to study and prevent combining results into state-wide or regional assessments. The impetus behind the National Assessment project was to develop a standardized method of measuring changes in shoreline position that is consistent from coast to coast. The goal was to facilitate the process of periodically and systematically updating the results in an internally consistent manner. A detailed report on shoreline change for the north coast of Alaska that contains a discussion of the data presented here is available and cited in section, "Geospatial Data."

Alaska↗

National assessment of shoreline change: historical change along the north coast of Alaska, U.S.-Canadian border to Icy Cape

Beach erosion is a persistent problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. Along the Arctic coast of Alaska, coastal erosion is widespread, may be accelerating, and is threatening defense and energy-related infrastructure, coastal habitats, and Native communities. As coastal populations continue to expand and infrastructure and habitat are increasingly threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There also is a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline change with metrics that are consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along the open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline change so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally. This report on shoreline change along the north coast of Alaska, between the U.S.-Canadian border and Icy Cape, is one in a series of regionally focused reports on historical shoreline change. Previous investigations include analyses and descriptive reports for the coasts of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, the Southeast Atlantic, California, the New England and Mid-Atlantic, portions of Hawaii, and the Pacific Northwest coasts of Oregon and Washington. Similar to the earlier reports in this series, this report summarizes the methods of analysis, documents and describes the results of the analysis, and explains historical trends and rates of shoreline change. This Alaska shoreline change assessment differs from previously published shoreline change assessments in that: (1) only two historical shorelines (from the 1940s and 2000s eras) were available for the Alaska study area whereas four or more shorelines (from 1850 to 2002) were available for the other assessments and, thus, only end-point rates for one long-term analysis period are reported here, compared to a combination of long-term and short-term rates as reported in other studies; (2) modern (2000s era) shorelines in this study represent a visually derived land-water interface position versus an elevation based, tidally referenced shoreline position; and (3) both exposed open-ocean and sheltered mainland-lagoon shorelines and rates of change are included in this study compared to other locations where only exposed open-ocean sandy shorelines or bluff edges were evaluated. No distinction was made between sand or gravel beaches, and the base of the unconsolidated coastal bluff was considered the shoreline where no fronting beach existed.

Alaska↗

Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America: Revisions for all taxa from the United States and Canada and new taxa from the western United States

This is the seventh volume in an atlas series that explores the relations between the geographic distributions of woody plant species and climatic variables in North America. A 25-kilometer (km) equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic variables was constructed from weather data. The geographic distributions of selected tree and shrub species were digitized, and the presence or absence of each species was determined for each point on the 25-km grid, thus providing a basis for comparing climatic data and species' distributions. The relations between climate and plant distributions are presented in graphical and tabular form. The results of this effort are intended primarily for use in biogeographic, ecologic, paleoclimatic, and global-change research. This volume of the atlas provides numerous changes, updates, and enhancements from previous volumes. Its geographic coverage is now restricted to Canada and the continental United States, and the source and time period of the climatic data have changed. New variables were added, including monthly values for temperature and precipitation, and measures of interannual variability. The distribution maps for all previously published species were redigitized, some distribution maps were revised, and 148 new species were added from the arid and semiarid western United States. The graphical displays were expanded to illustrate the new climatic variables, and the data tables were modified to provide more detail on the population distributions of plant taxa relative to climatic variables.

North America↗

Climate change and prairie pothole wetlands: mitigating water-level and hydroperiod effects through upland management

Prairie pothole wetlands offer crucial habitat for North America’s waterfowl populations. The wetlands also support an abundance of other species and provide ecological services valued by society. The hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands is dependent on atmospheric interactions. Therefore, changes to the region’s climate can have profound effects on wetland hydrology. The relevant literature related to climate change and upland management effects on prairie pothole wetland water levels and hydroperiods was reviewed. Climate change is widely expected to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole wetlands, as well as the biota and ecological services that the wetlands support. In general, hydrologic model projections that incorporate future climate change scenarios forecast lower water levels in prairie pothole wetlands and longer periods spent in a dry condition, despite potential increases in precipitation. However, the extreme natural variability in climate and hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands necessitates caution when interpreting model results. Recent changes in weather patterns throughout much of the Prairie Pothole Region have been in increased precipitation that results in increased water inputs to wetlands above losses associated with warmer temperatures. However, observed precipitation increases are within the range of natural climate variability and therefore, may not persist. Identifying management techniques with the potential to affect water inputs to prairie pothole wetlands would provide increased options for managers when dealing with the uncertainties associated with a changing climate. Several grassland management techniques (for example, grazing and burning) have the potential to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole by affecting infiltration, evapotranspiration, and snow deposition.

Prairie Pothole Region↗

Distributional changes in the western Burrowing Owl ( Athene cunicularia hypugaea ) in North America from 1967 to 2008

The quantification of shifts in bird distributions in response to climate change provides an opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of the processes that influence species persistence. We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to document changes in the distributional limits of the western Burrowing Owl ( Athene cunicularia hypugaea ) from 1967 to 2008. We used logistic regression to model presence probability ( p ) as a function of longitude, latitude, and year. We modeled a linear trend in logit( p ) through time with slope and intercept modeled as a double Fourier series of longitude and latitude. We found that the western Burrowing Owl has experienced an intriguing southward shift in the northern half of its breeding range, contrary to what is predicted by most species niche models and what has been observed for many other species in North America. The breeding range of the Burrowing Owl has been shrinking near its northern, western, and eastern edges. Our model detected the population declines that were observed in California and eastern Washington, in locations where maps based on route-specific estimating equations had predicted significant population increases. We suggest that the northern boundary of the breeding distribution of the western Burrowing Owl has contracted southward and the southern boundary of the species' breeding distribution has expanded southward into areas of northern Mexico that were formerly used only by wintering migrants.

Journal of Raptor Research↗