Geology topics

Research about Canada, United States

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Canada, United States.

At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Effects of harvesting forest biomass on water and climate regulation services: A synthesis of long-term ecosystem experiments in eastern North America

Demand for woody biomass fuels is increasing amidst concerns about global energy security and climate change, but there may be negative implications of increased harvesting for forest ecosystem functions and their benefits to society (ecosystem services). Using new methods for assessing ecosystem services based on long-term experimental research, post-harvest changes in ten potential benefits were assessed for ten first-order northern hardwood forest watersheds at three long-term experimental research sites in northeastern North America. As expected, we observed near-term tradeoffs between biomass provision and greenhouse gas regulation, as well as tradeoffs between intensive harvest and the capacity of the forest to remediate nutrient pollution. In both cases, service provision began to recover along with the regeneration of forest vegetation; in the case of pollution remediation, the service recovered to pre-harvest levels within 10 years. By contrast to these two services, biomass harvesting had relatively nominal and transient impacts on other ecosystem services. Our results are sensitive to empirical definitions of societal demand, including methods for scaling societal demand to ecosystem units, which are often poorly resolved. Reducing uncertainty around these parameters can improve confidence in our results and increase their relevance for decision-making. Our synthesis of long-term experimental studies provides insights on the social-ecological resilience of managed forest ecosystems to multiple drivers of change.

Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, Neversink River↗

USGS2015

Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2015

Effectiveness of a refuge for Lake Trout in Western Lake Superior II: Simulation of future performance

Historically, Lake Superior supported one of the largest and most diverse Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush fisheries in the Laurentian Great Lakes, but Lake Trout stocks collapsed due to excessive fishery exploitation and predation by Sea Lampreys Petromyzon marinus . Lake Trout stocking, Sea Lamprey control, and fishery regulations, including a refuge encompassing Gull Island Shoal (Apostle Islands region), were used to enable recovery of Lake Trout stocks that used this historically important spawning shoal. Our objective was to determine whether future sustainability of Lake Trout stocks will depend on the presence of the Gull Island Shoal Refuge. We constructed a stochastic age-structured simulation model to assess the effect of maintaining the refuge as a harvest management tool versus removing the refuge. In general, median abundances of age-4, age-4 and older (age-4+), and age-8+ fish collapsed at lower instantaneous fishing mortality rates ( F ) when the refuge was removed than when the refuge was maintained. With the refuge in place, the F that resulted in collapse depended on the rate of movement into and out of the refuge. Too many fish stayed in the refuge when movement was low (0–2%), and too many fish became vulnerable to fishing when movement was high (≥22%); thus, the refuge was more effective at intermediate rates of movement (10–11%). With the refuge in place, extinction did not occur at any simulated level of F , whereas refuge removal led to extinction at all combinations of commercial F and recreational F . Our results indicate that the Lake Trout population would be sustained by the refuge at all simulated F -values, whereas removal of the refuge would risk population collapse at much lower F (0.700–0.744). Therefore, the Gull Island Shoal Refuge is needed to sustain the Lake Trout population in eastern Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2015

Whooping crane stopover site use intensity within the Great Plains

Whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) of the Aransas-Wood Buffalo population migrate twice each year through the Great Plains in North America. Recovery activities for this endangered species include providing adequate places to stop and rest during migration, which are generally referred to as stopover sites. To assist in recovery efforts, initial estimates of stopover site use intensity are presented, which provide opportunity to identify areas across the migration range used more intensively by whooping cranes. We used location data acquired from 58 unique individuals fitted with platform transmitting terminals that collected global position system locations. Radio-tagged birds provided 2,158 stopover sites over 10 migrations and 5 years (2010–14). Using a grid-based approach, we identified 1,095 20-square-kilometer grid cells that contained stopover sites. We categorized occupied grid cells based on density of stopover sites and the amount of time cranes spent in the area. This assessment resulted in four categories of stopover site use: unoccupied, low intensity, core intensity, and extended-use core intensity. Although provisional, this evaluation of stopover site use intensity offers the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and partners a tool to identify landscapes that may be of greater conservation significance to migrating whooping cranes. Initially, the tool will be used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and other interested parties in evaluating the Great Plains Wind Energy Habitat Conservation Plan.

Alberta, Iowa, Kansas, Manitoba, Minnesota, Missou↗

USGS2015

Earthquake forewarning in the Cascadia region

This report, prepared for the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC), is intended as a step toward improving communications about earthquake hazards between information providers and users who coordinate emergency-response activities in the Cascadia region of the Pacific Northwest. NEPEC charged a subcommittee of scientists with writing this report about forewarnings of increased probabilities of a damaging earthquake. We begin by clarifying some terminology; a “prediction” refers to a deterministic statement that a particular future earthquake will or will not occur. In contrast to the 0- or 100-percent likelihood of a deterministic prediction, a “forecast” describes the probability of an earthquake occurring, which may range from >0 to <100 percent. When the time window is short (days to months) and the forecast is formulated for operational utility, this term may be “operational earthquake forecasting.” The subcommittee considered short-term forecasts only, herein referred to as “forewarnings,” but not their formulation into messages or their applications, which will be addressed by NEPEC in subsequent activities. The subcommittee considered “direct” and “indirect” forewarnings. Direct forewarnings originate with observed changes in geologic processes or conditions, which may include Increased rates of M >4 earthquakes on the plate interface north of the Mendocino region Changes in shallow seismicity patterns Increased rates of moderate earthquakes within the subducting plate Changes in the pattern of slow slip on the plate interface and other major faults Indirect forewarnings are based largely on model predictions of increased earthquake-occurrence probabilities. In this context, “models” refers to simulations of the processes believed to affect earthquake occurrence, as implemented in computer software, laboratory experiments, or some analog natural system. These indirect forewarnings likely will be more uncertain and difficult to interpret than direct forewarnings. This report also highlights the challenges of assessing the significance of forewarnings, which mostly will be extraordinary events with little or no historical precedent in the Cascadia region.

Cascadia region↗

USGS2015

Surface melt dominates Alaska glacier mass balance

Mountain glaciers comprise a small and widely distributed fraction of the world's terrestrial ice, yet their rapid losses presently drive a large percentage of the cryosphere's contribution to sea level rise. Regional mass balance assessments are challenging over large glacier populations due to remote and rugged geography, variable response of individual glaciers to climate change, and episodic calving losses from tidewater glaciers. In Alaska, we use airborne altimetry from 116 glaciers to estimate a regional mass balance of −75 ± 11 Gt yr −1 (1994–2013). Our glacier sample is spatially well distributed, yet pervasive variability in mass balances obscures geospatial and climatic relationships. However, for the first time, these data allow the partitioning of regional mass balance by glacier type. We find that tidewater glaciers are losing mass at substantially slower rates than other glaciers in Alaska and collectively contribute to only 6% of the regional mass loss.

Alaska, British Columbia, Yukon Territory↗

USGS2015

An empirical evaluation of landscape energetic models: Mallard and American black duck space use during the non-breeding period

Bird conservation Joint Ventures are collaborative partnerships between public agencies and private organizations that facilitate habitat management to support waterfowl and other bird populations. A subset of Joint Ventures has developed energetic carrying capacity models (ECCs) to translate regional waterfowl population goals into habitat objectives during the non-breeding period. Energetic carrying capacity models consider food biomass, metabolism, and available habitat to estimate waterfowl carrying capacity within an area. To evaluate Joint Venture ECCs in the context of waterfowl space use, we monitored 33 female mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and 55 female American black ducks ( A. rubripes ) using global positioning system satellite telemetry in the central and eastern United States. To quantify space use, we measured first-passage time (FPT: time required for an individual to transit across a circle of a given radius) at biologically relevant spatial scales for mallards (3.46 km) and American black ducks (2.30 km) during the non-breeding period, which included autumn migration, winter, and spring migration. We developed a series of models to predict FPT using Joint Venture ECCs and compared them to a biological null model that quantified habitat composition and a statistical null model, which included intercept and random terms. Energetic carrying capacity models predicted mallard space use more efficiently during autumn and spring migrations, but the statistical null was the top model for winter. For American black ducks, ECCs did not improve predictions of space use; the biological null was top ranked for winter and the statistical null was top ranked for spring migration. Thus, ECCs provided limited insight into predicting waterfowl space use during the non-breeding season. Refined estimates of spatial and temporal variation in food abundance, habitat conditions, and anthropogenic disturbance will likely improve ECCs and benefit conservation planners in linking non-breeding waterfowl habitat objectives with distribution and population parameters. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Arkansas, Delaware, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jerse↗

USGS2015

Demographic and spatiotemporal patterns of avian influenza infection at the continental scale, and in relation to annual life cycle of a migratory host

Since the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in the eastern hemisphere, numerous surveillance programs and studies have been undertaken to detect the occurrence, distribution, or spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in wild bird populations worldwide. To identify demographic determinants and spatiotemporal patterns of AIV infection in long distance migratory waterfowl in North America, we fitted generalized linear models with binominal distribution to analyze results from 13,574 blue-winged teal ( Anas discors , BWTE) sampled in 2007 to 2010 year round during AIV surveillance programs in Canada and the United States. Our analyses revealed that during late summer staging (July-August) and fall migration (September-October), hatch year (HY) birds were more likely to be infected than after hatch year (AHY) birds, however there was no difference between age categories for the remainder of the year (winter, spring migration, and breeding period), likely due to maturing immune systems and newly acquired immunity of HY birds. Probability of infection increased non-linearly with latitude, and was highest in late summer prior to fall migration when densities of birds and the proportion of susceptible HY birds in the population are highest. Birds in the Central and Mississippi flyways were more likely to be infected compared to those in the Atlantic flyway. Seasonal cycles and spatial variation of AIV infection were largely driven by the dynamics of AIV infection in HY birds, which had more prominent cycles and spatial variation in infection compared to AHY birds. Our results demonstrate demographic as well as seasonal, latitudinal and flyway trends across Canada and the US, while illustrating the importance of migratory host life cycle and age in driving cyclical patterns of prevalence.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2015

Migratory Patterns of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha Returning to a Large, Free-flowing River Basin

Upriver movements were determined for Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha returning to the Yukon River, a large, virtually pristine river basin. These returns have declined dramatically since the late 1990s, and information is needed to better manage the run and facilitate conservation efforts. A total of 2,860 fish were radio tagged during 2002–2004. Most (97.5%) of the fish tracked upriver to spawning areas displayed continual upriver movements and strong fidelity to the terminal tributaries entered. Movement rates were substantially slower for fish spawning in lower river tributaries (28–40 km d -1 ) compared to upper basin stocks (52–62 km d -1 ). Three distinct migratory patterns were observed, including a gradual decline, pronounced decline, and substantial increase in movement rate as the fish moved upriver. Stocks destined for the same region exhibited similar migratory patterns. Individual fish within a stock showed substantial variation, but tended to reflect the regional pattern. Differences between consistently faster and slower fish explained 74% of the within-stock variation, whereas relative shifts in sequential movement rates between “hares” (faster fish becoming slower) and “tortoises” (slow but steady fish) explained 22% of the variation. Pulses of fish moving upriver were not cohesive. Fish tagged over a 4-day period took 16 days to pass a site 872 km upriver. Movement rates were substantially faster and the percentage of atypical movements considerably less than reported in more southerly drainages, but may reflect the pristine conditions within the Yukon River, wild origins of the fish, and discrete run timing of the returns. Movement data can provide numerous insights into the status and management of salmon returns, particularly in large river drainages with widely scattered fisheries where management actions in the lower river potentially impact harvests and escapement farther upstream. However, the substantial variation exhibited among individual fish within a stock can complicate these efforts.

Alaska, Yukon Territory↗

USGS2015

Introduction to the special issue on the 2012 Haida Gwaii and 2013 Craig earthquakes at the Pacific–North America plate boundary (British Columbia and Alaska)

The 27 October 2012 M w 7.8 Haida Gwaii thrust earthquake and the 5 January 2013 M w 7.5 Craig strike‐slip earthquake are the focus of this special issue. They occurred along the transform boundary between the Pacific and North American plates (Fig. 1). The most identifiable feature of the plate boundary, the strike‐slip Queen Charlotte fault, might be viewed as typical of continent–ocean transform faults because it separates the continental crust of the North American plate from oceanic crust of the Pacific plate for most of its length. However, the current relative plate motion of about 5 cm/yr is highly oblique to the Queen Charlotte fault, causing a transpressive plate boundary in the region.

Alaska, British Columbia↗

USGS2015

Using larval fish community structure to guide long-term monitoring of fish spawning activity

Larval fishes provide a direct indication of spawning activity and may therefore be useful for long-term monitoring efforts in relation to spawning habitat restoration. However, larval fish sampling can be time intensive and costly. We sought to understand the spatial and temporal structure of larval fish communities in the St. Clair–Detroit River system, Michigan–Ontario, to determine whether targeted larval fish sampling can be made more efficient for long-term monitoring. We found that larval fish communities were highly nested, with lower river segments and late-spring samples containing the highest genus richness of larval fish. We created four sampling scenarios for each river system: (1) using all available data, (2) limiting temporal sampling to late spring, (3) limiting spatial sampling to lower river segments only, and (4) limiting both spatial and temporal sampling. By limiting the spatial extent of sampling to lower river sites and/or limiting the temporal extent to the late-spring period, we found that effort could be reduced by more than 50% while maintaining over 75% of the observed and estimated total genus richness. Similarly, limiting the sampling effort to lower river sites and/or the late-spring period maintained between 65% and 93% of the observed richness of lithophilic-spawning genera and invasive genera. In general, community composition remained consistent among sampling scenarios. Targeted sampling offers a lower-cost alternative to exhaustive spatial and temporal sampling and may be more readily incorporated into long-term monitoring.

Michigan, Ontario↗

USGS2015

The parasite Ichthyophonus sp. in Pacific herring from the coastal NE Pacific

The protistan parasite Ichthyophonus occurred in populations of Pacific herring Clupea pallasii Valenciennes throughout coastal areas of the NE Pacific, ranging from Puget Sound, WA north to the Gulf of Alaska, AK. Infection prevalence in local Pacific herring stocks varied seasonally and annually, and a general pattern of increasing prevalence with host size and/or age persisted throughout the NE Pacific. An exception to this zoographic pattern occurred among a group of juvenile, age 1+ year Pacific herring from Cordova Harbor, AK in June 2010, which demonstrated an unusually high infection prevalence of 35%. Reasons for this anomaly were hypothesized to involve anthropogenic influences that resulted in locally elevated infection pressures. Interannual declines in infection prevalence from some populations (e.g. Lower Cook Inlet, AK; from 20–32% in 2007 to 0–3% during 2009–13) or from the largest size cohorts of other populations (e.g. Sitka Sound, AK; from 62.5% in 2007 to 19.6% in 2013) were likely a reflection of selective mortality among the infected cohorts. All available information for Ichthyophonus in the NE Pacific, including broad geographic range, low host specificity and presence in archived Pacific herring tissue samples dating to the 1980s, indicate a long-standing host–pathogen relationship.

Alaska, British Columbia, California, Washington↗

USGS2015

Distribution of native mussel (unionidae) assemblages in coastal areas of Lake Erie, Lake St. Clair, and connecting channels, twenty-five years after a dreissenid invasion

Over the past 25 years, unionid mussels in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America have been adversely impacted by invasive dreissenid mussels, which directly (e.g., by attachment to unionid shells) and indirectly (e.g., by competing for food) cause mortality. Despite the invasion, unionids have survived in several areas in the presence of dreissenid mussels. We investigated current spatial patterns in these native mussel refuges based on surveys for unionid mussels across 48 sampling locations (141 sites) in 2011 and 2012, and documented species abundance and diversity in coastal areas of lakes St. Clair and Erie. The highest-quality assemblages of native mussels (densities, richness, and diversity) appear to be concentrated in the St. Clair delta, where abundance continues to decline, as well as in in Thompson Bay of Presque Isle in Lake Erie and in just a few coastal wetlands and drowned river-mouths in the western basin of Lake Erie. The discovery of several new refuge areas suggests that unionids have a broader distribution within the region than previously thought.

Lake Erie, Lake St. Clair↗

USGS2015

A crustal structure model of the Beaufort-Mackenzie Margin, southern Canada Basin

Canada and the United States collaborated in geophysical survey operations in the Amerasia Basin from 2007 to 2011 using the Canadian icebreaker CCGS Louis S. St. Laurent and the US icebreaker USCGC Healy. Over 15000 km of bathymetry, sub-bottom profiles, and 16-channel seismic reflection data were acquired over the Canada Basin and Alpha Ridge. Expendable sonobuoys were deployed to collect P-wave refraction and wide angle reflection data to define the regional velocity structure of the sedimentary successions. Although the new seismic profiles tie with existing GSC multichannel seismic lines on the Beaufort Shelf, water-bottom multiples obscure direct correlation of deeper stratigraphic horizons and (at best) basement is poorly imaged. We present a 2-D gravity and magnetic model for the southern Canada Basin margin and Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin integrating the new LSSL data with an existing deep crustal seismic reflection profile. The model crosses the slope region, where bathymetry shallows, base-of-sediments is deep, and basement is not imaged because of the water-bottom multiple. The density values used in the model are constrained by empirical relationships between velocity and density rock properties; however, magnetic susceptibility values are based on typical values for the inferred crustal lithologies. Velocity analyses of the new sonobuoy data provide constraints on the composition of the sediments, and enable quantitative mapping of continental, oceanic, and transitional domains within the Canada Basin. The 2-D gravity and magnetic forward model provides estimates for basement and Moho depths, the distribution and depths of magnetic sources, and visualization of the underlying crustal architecture controlling basin formation.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2015

Climate change implications in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America

We synthesized an expert review of climate change implications for hydroecological and terrestrial ecological systems in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America. Our synthesis is based on an analysis of projected temperature, precipitation, and snowfall stratified by eight biogeoclimatic provinces and three vegetation zones. Five IPCC CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are the basis for projections of mean annual temperature increasing from a current average (1961–1990) of 3.2 °C to 4.9–6.9 °C (5 GCM range; RCP4.5 scenario) or 6.4–8.7 °C (RCP8.5), mean annual precipitation increasing from 3130 mm to 3210–3400 mm (3–9 % increase) or 3320–3690 mm (6–18 % increase), and total precipitation as snow decreasing from 1200 mm to 940–720 mm (22–40 % decrease) or 720–500 mm (40–58 % decrease) by the 2080s (2071–2100; 30-year normal period). These projected changes are anticipated to result in a cascade of ecosystem-level effects including: increased frequency of flooding and rain-on-snow events; an elevated snowline and reduced snowpack; changes in the timing and magnitude of stream flow, freshwater thermal regimes, and riverine nutrient exports; shrinking alpine habitats; altitudinal and latitudinal expansion of lowland and subalpine forest types; shifts in suitable habitat boundaries for vegetation and wildlife communities; adverse effects on species with rare ecological niches or limited dispersibility; and shifts in anadromous salmon distribution and productivity. Our collaborative synthesis of potential impacts highlights the coupling of social and ecological systems that characterize the region as well as a number of major information gaps to help guide assessments of future conditions and adaptive capacity.

Alaska, British Columbia↗

USGS2015

On formally integrating science and policy: walking the walk

The contribution of science to the development and implementation of policy is typically neither direct nor transparent. In 1995, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) made a decision that was unprecedented in natural resource management, turning to an unused and unproven decision process to carry out trust responsibilities mandated by an international treaty. The decision process was adopted for the establishment of annual sport hunting regulations for the most economically important duck population in North America, the 6 to 11 million mallards Anas platyrhynchos breeding in the mid-continent region of north-central United States and central Canada. The key idea underlying the adopted decision process was to formally embed within it a scientific process designed to reduce uncertainty (learn) and thus make better decisions in the future. The scientific process entails use of models to develop predictions of competing hypotheses about system response to the selected action at each decision point. These prediction not only are used to select the optimal management action, but also are compared with the subsequent estimates of system state variables, providing evidence for modifying degrees of confidence in, and hence relative influence of, these models at the next decision point. Science and learning in one step are formally and directly incorporated into the next decision, contrasting with the usual ad hoc and indirect use of scientific results in policy development and decision-making. Application of this approach over the last 20 years has led to a substantial reduction in uncertainty, as well as to an increase in transparency and defensibility of annual decisions and a decrease in the contentiousness of the decision process. As resource managers are faced with increased uncertainty associated with various components of global change, this approach provides a roadmap for the future scientific management of natural resources.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2015

Evidence of the St. Clair-Detroit River system as a dispersal corridor and nursery habitat for transient larval burbot

Burbot Lota lota are distributed across the Laurentian Great Lakes where they occupy a top piscivore role. The St. Clair-Detroit River System is known to provide a migration corridor as well as spawning and nursery habitat for many indigenous fishes of economic and ecological significance. However, knowledge is scant of the early life history of burbot and the importance of this system in their dispersal, survival, and recruitment. In order to assess the role of the St. Clair-Detroit River System to burbot ecology, we collected larval burbot during ichthyoplankton surveys in this system from 2010 to 2013 as part of a habitat restoration monitoring program. More and larger burbot larvae were found in the St. Clair River than in the lower Detroit River, although this may be due to differences in sampling methods between the two rivers. Consistent with existing studies, larval burbot exhibited ontogenesis with a distinct transition from a pelagic zooplankton-based diet to a benthic macroinvertebrate-based diet. Our results demonstrate that the St. Clair-Detroit Rivers provide food resources, required habitat, and a migration conduit between the upper and lower Great Lakes, but the contribution of these fish to the lower lakes requires further examination.

Huron-Erie Corridor↗

USGS2015

Characterizing the distribution of an endangered salmonid using environmental DNA analysis

Determining species distributions accurately is crucial to developing conservation and management strategies for imperiled species, but a challenging task for small populations. We evaluated the efficacy of environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis for improving detection and thus potentially refining the known distribution of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Methow and Okanogan Subbasins of the Upper Columbia River, which span the border between Washington, USA and British Columbia, Canada. We developed an assay to target a 90 base pair sequence of Chinook DNA and used quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) to quantify the amount of Chinook eDNA in triplicate 1-L water samples collected at 48 stream locations in June and again in August 2012. The overall probability of detecting Chinook with our eDNA method in areas within the known distribution was 0.77 (±0.05 SE). Detection probability was lower in June (0.62, ±0.08 SE) during high flows and at the beginning of spring Chinook migration than during base flows in August (0.93, ±0.04 SE). In the Methow subbasin, mean eDNA concentration was higher in August compared to June, especially in smaller tributaries, probably resulting from the arrival of spring Chinook adults, reduced discharge, or both. Chinook eDNA concentrations did not appear to change in the Okanogan subbasin from June to August. Contrary to our expectations about downstream eDNA accumulation, Chinook eDNA did not decrease in concentration in upstream reaches (0–120 km). Further examination of factors influencing spatial distribution of eDNA in lotic systems may allow for greater inference of local population densities along stream networks or watersheds. These results demonstrate the potential effectiveness of eDNA detection methods for determining landscape-level distribution of anadromous salmonids in large river systems.

British Columbia, Washington↗