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Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Canada, United States.

At least 487 records · Page 27Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Angler-caught salmonid diets illustrate Lake Ontario Alewife population and predator-prey dynamics

Lake Ontario fisheries decision makers use information about the status and trajectory of prey fish populations, such as alewife, for salmonid sport fish management. In 2020, the April bottom trawl survey, typically used to assess alewife, was canceled the day after it began due to Coronavirus health concerns. This prompted NYSDEC and USGS science teams to initiate a diet study using angler-collected samples to provide information on the alewife population in 2020. Over 800 salmonid diets were collected from across Lake Ontario southern shore from May through September. Past diet studies illustrated alewife size distribution in piscivore diets overlapped April trawl survey-based distributions (proportion overlap = 0.51- 0.81, n = 5). In 2020 few age-1 sized alewife (40 - 140 mm) were observed in salmonid diets, suggesting that 2019 alewife reproduction was below average. Given that alewife reproductive success from 2017 and 2018 were also below average, the 2021 Lake Ontario adult alewife population will likely be at a record low for the 43-year time series. For all years and piscivore species, adult-sized Alewife ( total length > 140 mm) were the predominate size consumed by piscivores greater than 400 mm (~ 16 inches). Sizes of alewife in the diet were positively related to piscivore size. Diet composition, by dry weight, indicated alewife remain the dominant prey supporting salmonids and diets were generally similar to trawl-based estimates of prey fish community composition. The most notable deviation from this pattern included round goby, which comprised substantial portions of brown trout and lake trout diets in 2013 and 2020. These results inform decision making related to Lake Ontario salmonid stocking and predator prey dynamics and highlight the utility of angler-caught piscivore diets for indicating alewife population status.

Lake Ontario↗
USGS2021

Great Lakes harmful algal blooms: Current knowledge gaps

Freshwater Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) pose serious risks throughout the world to drinking water, recreation, and ecosystem health. The Great Lakes, which contain nearly 20% of the world’s available surface freshwater, have been experiencing an increase in HABs since the 1990s. Knowledge gaps relating to HABs remain even after extensive and ongoing research efforts. These knowledge gaps are presented below for the benefit of water resource managers, state and federal agencies, legislators, and others involved in the development of policies to address HABs throughout the Great Lakes.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2021

Mineral deposits of the Mesoproterozoic Midcontinent Rift System in the Lake Superior region – Metallogeny of the prolifically mineralized Keweenawan LIP

The Keweenawan large igneous province (LIP) of the Midcontinent Rift System (MRS) of North America is perhaps the most prolifically and diversely mineralized LIP known on Earth (Nicholson et al., 1992). The MRS is an approximately 2,200 km curvilinear continental rift that stretches from Kansas northeast to the Lake Superior region where it turns southeast and extends through lower Michigan (Fig. 1). Rocks of the MRS host a varied suite of magmatic and hydrothermal mineral deposits in the Lake Superior region of the United States and Canada where rift rocks are exposed at or near the surface. Historically, hydrothermal deposits, such as Michigan’s native Cu deposits and the White Pine sediment-hosted stratiform Cu deposit, were major MRS metal producers. On-going exploration for and potential development of Cu-Ni sulfide deposits hosted by the Duluth Complex of Minnesota and the opening of the Eagle Ni mine in Michigan indicate an expanding interest in MRS magmatic deposits. Many of the MRS hydrothermal and magmatic mineral deposits are significant past, present, and likely future providers of critical minerals. We have placed these deposits into a space and time metallogenic framework (Woodruff et al., 2020a) that is summarized here.

Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Michigan, Nebraska, Ontar↗
USGS2021

Bottom trawl assessment of Lake Ontario's benthic preyfish community, 2021

Since 1978, the Lake Ontario preyfish community survey has provided information on the status and trends of the benthic preyfish community related to Fish Community Objectives that includes understanding preyfish population dynamics and community diversity. Beginning in 2015, the benthic preyfish survey expanded from US-only to incorporate lake-wide sampling sites which increased the survey’s spatial coverage, and resumed sampling in eastern embayments (Black River, Chaumont, Guffin, and Henderson Bays) that were historically sampled during a September bottom trawl survey to index yellow perch from 1978 to 2007. In 2021, the collaborative benthic preyfish survey completed 195 bottom trawl tows across main lake and embayments at depths from 5 to 226 m. New embayment sites at Bay of Quinte, Sodus, and Little Sodus Bay were added to the survey in 2021 to compare fish communities across nearshore sites. In total, the 2021 survey sampled 109,178 fish from 35 species. Round goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ) was the most numerically abundant species comprising 44% of the total catch, followed by deepwater sculpin ( Myoxocephalus thompsonii ), and alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) at 17% and 11%, respectively. Deepwater sculpin accounted for most (406 kg) of the fish biomass sampled during the 2021 survey (total=1,995 kg), followed by round goby (257 kg), and common carp (252 kg). Slimy sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ) biomass was higher in 2021 than in 2020, when spatial coverage was reduced. Deepwater sculpin biomass remained high in 2021 and similar to observations since 2019. White perch biomass ( Morone americana ) in Black River Bay has increased compared to observations from historical surveys. Yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) accounted for most of the benthic preyfish biomass across the embayments surveyed in 2021 except for the Bay of Quinte and Black River Bay, where white perch accounted for a greater proportion of the fish community biomass.

Lake Ontario↗
USGS2020

A long-term geothermal observatory across subseafloor gas hydrates, IODP Hole U1364A, Cascadia accretionary prism

We report 4 years of temperature profiles collected from May 2014 to May 2018 in Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Hole U1364A in the frontal accretionary prism of the Cascadia subduction zone. The temperature data extend to depths of nearly 300 m below seafloor (mbsf), spanning the gas hydrate stability zone at the location and a clear bottom-simulating reflector (BSR) at ∼230 mbsf. When the hole was drilled in 2010, a pressure-monitoring Advanced CORK (ACORK) observatory was installed, sealed at the bottom by a bridge plug and cement below 302 mbsf. In May 2014, a temperature profile was collected by lowering a probe down the hole from the ROV ROPOS. From July 2016 through May 2018, temperature data were collected during a nearly two-year deployment of a 24-thermistor cable installed to 268 m below seafloor (mbsf). The cable and a seismic-tilt instrument package also deployed in 2016 were connected to the Ocean Networks Canada (ONC) NEPTUNE cabled observatory in June of 2017, after which the thermistor temperatures were logged by Ocean Networks Canada at one-minute intervals until failure of the main ethernet switch in the integrated seafloor control unit in May 2018. The thermistor array had been designed with concentrated vertical spacing around the bottom-simulating reflector and two pressure-monitoring screens at 203 and 244 mbsf, with wider thermistor spacing elsewhere to document the geothermal state up to seafloor. The 4 years of data show a generally linear temperature gradient of 0.055°C/m consistent with a heat flux of 61–64 mW/m 2 . The data show no indications of thermal transients. A slight departure from a linear gradient provides an approximate limit of ∼10 −10 m/s for any possible slow upward advection of pore fluids. In-situ temperatures are ∼15.8°C at the BSR position, consistent with methane hydrate stability at that depth and pressure.

Cascadia subduction zone↗
USGS2020

Minimal stratigraphic evidence for coseismic coastal subsidence during 2000 yr of megathrust earthquakes at the central Cascadia subduction zone

Lithology and microfossil biostratigraphy beneath the marshes of a central Oregon estuary limit geophysical models of Cascadia megathrust rupture during successive earthquakes by ruling out >0.5 m of coseismic coastal subsidence for the past 2000 yr. Although the stratigraphy in cores and outcrops includes as many as 12 peat-mud contacts, like those commonly inferred to record subsidence during megathrust earthquakes, mapping, qualitative diatom analysis, foraminiferal transfer function analysis, and 14 C dating of the contacts failed to confirm that any contacts formed through subsidence during great earthquakes. Based on the youngest peat-mud contact’s distinctness, >400 m distribution, ∼0.6 m depth, and overlying probable tsunami deposit, we attribute it to the great 1700 CE Cascadia earthquake and(or) its accompanying tsunami. Minimal changes in diatom assemblages from below the contact to above its probable tsunami deposit suggest that the lower of several foraminiferal transfer function reconstructions of coseismic subsidence across the contact (0.1–0.5 m) is most accurate. The more limited stratigraphic extent and minimal changes in lithology, foraminifera, and(or) diatom assemblages across the other 11 peat-mud contacts are insufficient to distinguish them from contacts formed through small, gradual, or localized changes in tide levels during river floods, storm surges, and gradual sea-level rise. Although no data preclude any contacts from being synchronous with a megathrust earthquake, the evidence is equally consistent with all contacts recording relative sea-level changes below the ∼0.5 m detection threshold for distinguishing coseismic from nonseismic changes.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2020

Environmental data associated with sites infected with white-nose syndrome (WNS) before October 2011 in North America

White-nose syndrome (WNS) is an emerging infectious disease of hibernating bats caused by a fungus previously known as Geomyces destructans and reclassified as Pseudogymnoascus destructans . The disease was first documented in 2006 in New York, has since spread across much of eastern North America, and as of January 2012, had caused the death of at least 5.7 to 6.7 million bats. Previous studies have suggested that environmental conditions play a strong role in WNS mortality. However, to predict where and when the disease will spread to new sites is difficult because detailed site information and associated environmental data are notably sparse. This paper presents a chronology of where and when WNS was detected in North America before October 2011 and indicates who reported the infections. This paper also presents available data on WNS-infected site elevation, geology, sediment chemistry and biota, air temperature, and relative humidity. By the end of September 2011, at least 241 known WNS-infected sites were in North America and the number of infected sites per winter season had increased each year since 2006. The progressive increase in the number of infected sites per winter season suggests that the number of WNS infections had not peaked as of the 2010–11 winter season. WNS-infected sites include caves and mines, but the sites are not restricted by elevation, lithology, or strata age. Available data on site sediment chemistry are sparse but present a wide range of values, suggesting that caves and mines may contain a great range of microenvironments that are still poorly understood. The distribution of WNS may be restricted by air temperature and relative humidity. Published air temperature values from WNS-infected sites range from −15 to 33 degrees Celsius (but most temperature values are less than 20 degrees Celsius), and relative humidity values range from 50 to 100 percent. The spread of WNS may be restricted by a cave or mine temperature threshold of 20 degrees Celsius (which is likely to be south of most of the continental United States) and by some yet to be determined threshold of low relative humidity. These results indicate that WNS may not spread south into Mexico or to Puerto Rico.

Connecticut, Delaware, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, M↗
USGS2020

Nanopore amplicon sequencing reveals molecular convergence and local adaptation of rhodopsin in Great Lakes salmonids

Local adaptation can drive diversification of closely related species across environmental gradients and promote convergence of distantly related taxa that experience similar conditions. We examined a potential case of adaptation to novel visual environments in a species flock (Great Lakes salmonids, genus Coregonus ) using a new amplicon genotyping protocol on the Oxford Nanopore Flongle and MinION. We sequenced five visual opsin genes for individuals of C. artedi , C. hoyi , C. kiyi , and C. zenithicus. Comparisons revealed species-specific differences in a key spectral tuning amino acid in rhodopsin (Tyr261Phe substitution), suggesting local adaptation of C. kiyi to the blue-shifted depths of Lake Superior. Ancestral state reconstruction demonstrates that parallel evolution and “toggling” at this amino acid residue has occurred several times across the fish tree of life, resulting in identical changes to the visual systems of distantly related taxa across replicated environmental gradients. Our results suggest that ecological differences and local adaptation to distinct visual environments are strong drivers of both evolutionary parallelism and diversification.

Lake Superior↗
USGS2020

Systematic characterization of morphotectonic variability along the Cascadia convergent margin: Implications for shallow megathrust behavior and tsunami hazards

Studies of recent destructive megathrust earth­quakes and tsunamis along subduction margins in Japan, Sumatra, and Chile have linked forearc mor­phology and structure to megathrust behavior. This connection is based on the idea that spatial varia­tions in the frictional behavior of the megathrust influence the tectono-morphological evolution of the upper plate. Here we present a comprehen­sive examination of the tectonic geomorphology, outer wedge taper, and structural vergence along the marine forearc of the Cascadia subduction zone (offshore northwestern North America). The goal is to better understand geologic controls on outer wedge strength and segmentation at spatial scales equivalent to rupture lengths of large earthquakes (≥M 6.7), and to examine potential linkages with shallow megathrust behavior. We use cross-margin profiles, spaced 25 km apart, to characterize along-strike variation in outer wedge width, steepness, and structural vergence (measured between the toe and the outer arc high). The width of the outer wedge varies between 17 and 93 km, and the steepness ranges from 0.9° to 6.5°. Hierarchical cluster analysis of outer wedge width and steepness reveals four distinct regions that also display unique patterns of structural ver­gence and shape of the wedge: Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada (average width, linear wedge, seaward and mixed vergence); Washington, USA (higher width, concave wedge, landward and mixed vergence); northern and central Oregon, USA (average width, linear and convex wedge, mixed and seaward vergence); and southern Oregon and northern California, USA (lower width, convex wedge, seaward and mixed vergence). Variabil­ity in outer wedge morphology and structure is broadly associated with along-strike megathrust segmentation inferred from differences in oceanic asthenospheric velocities, patterns of episodic tremor and slow slip, GPS models of plate locking, and the distribution of seismicity near the plate interface. In more detail, our results appear to delin­eate the extent, geometry, and lithology of dynamic and static backstops along the margin. Varying backstop configurations along the Cascadia mar­gin are interpreted to represent material-strength contrasts within the wedge that appear to regulate the along- and across-strike taper and structural vergence in the outer wedge. We argue that the morphotectonic variability in the outer wedge may reflect spatial variations in shallow megathrust behavior occurring over roughly the last few million years. Comparing outer wedge taper along the Cascadia margin to a global compilation suggests that observations in the global catalog are not accurately representing the range of hetero­geneity within individual margins and highlights the need for detailed margin-wide morphotectonic analyses of subduction zones worldwide.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2020

Focused fluid flow and methane venting along the Queen Charlotte fault, offshore Alaska (USA) and British Columbia (Canada)

Fluid seepage along obliquely deforming plate boundaries can be an important indicator of crustal permeability and influence on fault-zone mechanics and hydrocarbon migration. The ~850-km-long Queen Charlotte fault (QCF) is the dominant structure along the right-lateral transform boundary that separates the Pacific and North American tectonic plates offshore southeastern Alaska (USA) and western British Columbia (Canada). Indications for fluid seepage along the QCF margin include gas bubbles originating from the seafloor and imaged in the water column, chemosynthetic communities, precipitates of authigenic carbonates, mud volcanoes, and changes in the acoustic character of seismic reflection data. Cold seeps sampled in this study preferentially occur along the crests of ridgelines associated with uplift and folding and between submarine canyons that incise the continental slope strata. With carbonate stable carbon isotope (δ 13 C) values ranging from −46‰ to −3‰, there is evidence of both microbial and thermal degradation of organic matter of continental-margin sediments along the QCF. Both active and dormant venting on ridge crests indicate that the development of anticlines is a key feature along the QCF that facilitates both trapping and focused fluid flow. Geochemical analyses of meth­ane-derived authigenic carbonates are evidence of fluid seepage along the QCF since the Last Glacial Maximum. These cold seeps sustain vibrant chemosynthetic communities such as clams and bacterial mats, providing further evidence of venting of reduced chemical fluids such as methane and sulfide along the QCF.

Alaska, British Columbia↗
USGS2020

Habitat characterization and species distribution model of the only large-lake population of the endangered Silver Chub (Macrhybopsis storeriana, Kirtland 1844)

The endangered Silver Chub ( Macrhybopsis storeriana, Kirtland 1844) is native to North America and primarily riverine, with the only known large‐lake population in Lake Erie. Once a major component of the Lake Erie fish community, it declined and became nearly extirpated in the mid‐1900s. Recent collections in western Lake Erie suggest that Silver Chub may be able to recover, but their habitat and distribution are poorly known. A recent work showed an extensive area of western Lake Erie with the potential to support large numbers of Silver Chub, but was based on a geographically limited dataset. We developed a neural network‐based species distribution model for the Silver Chub in western Lake Erie, improved by new synoptic data and using habitat variables resistant to anthropogenic activities. The Potential model predictions were compared with a model that included anthropogenic‐sensitive variables. The Potential model used 10 habitat variables and performed well, explaining > 99% of data variation and had generally low error rates. Predictions indicated that a large area of the waters approximately 2–9 m deep contained Appropriate habitat and the highest abundances should be supported by habitat in a wide arc through the western end of the basin. The model indicated that Appropriate Silver Chub habitat was associated with relatively deep water, near coastal wetlands, where effective fetch is less than average. Disturbance model predictions were similar, but predicted poorer Silver Chub habitat in more areas than that predicted by the Potential model. Our Potential model reveals Appropriate habitat conditions for Silver Chub and its spatial distribution, indicating that extensive areas of western Lake Erie could support Silver Chub. Comparisons with Disturbance model predictions demonstrate that Potential model predictions may be used in conjunction with analyses of degrading conditions in the system to better conserve and manage for this endangered species.

Michigan, Ohio↗
USGS2020

Reliability of external characteristics to age Barrow’s goldeneye

Accurate assignment of age class is critical for understanding most demographic processes. For waterfowl, most techniques for determining age class require birds in hand, reducing utility for quickly and efficiently sampling a large portion of the population. As an alternative, we sought to establish an observation‐based methodology, achievable in the field with standard optics, for determining age class of Barrow's goldeneyes ( Bucephala islandica ). We photographed heads, wings, and bellies of 232 Barrow's goldeneyes captured during late winter (February–April) of 2007–2015 along the north Pacific Coast. From these photographs, we focused on 5 external characteristics for both males and females, with binary states that putatively corresponded to 2 age classes—first‐year birds (<1 yr) and adults (>1 yr). For males, all 5 external traits (belly color, head color, eye color, facial crescent, median secondary coverts color) had binary states that were reliably distinguishable by observers. Moreover, all 5 external traits were highly predictive of age class (≥96% concordance between external vs. bursal‐derived ages), and novice observers, after receiving training, were able to accurately age 96% of first‐year and 99% of adult males. In contrast, patterns were weaker for females; putative external characteristics of female age class (belly color, bill radiance, bill blackness, eye color, median secondary coverts color) had 77–91% concordance with bursal‐derived age, compared with 96–100% for males, and observers misidentified age classes of 15% of females, compared with only 2% of males. Overall, age classes of male Barrow's goldeneyes were accurately and reliably distinguishable during winter based on several external characteristics, whereas those of females were not. Our technique may be used to estimate age composition of male Barrow's goldeneyes during winter, providing a useful metric for monitoring annual changes in adult‐to‐juvenile ratios and other important demographic parameters.

Alaska, British Columbia↗
USGS2020

Diversity of diatoms, benthic macroinvertebrates, and fish varies in response to different environmental correlates in Arctic rivers across North America

Climate change poses a significant threat to Arctic freshwater biodiversity, but impacts depend upon the strength of organism response to climate‐related drivers. Currently, there is insufficient knowledge about Arctic freshwater biodiversity patterns to guide assessment, prediction, and management of biodiversity change. As part of the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program's first freshwater assessment, we evaluated diversity of diatoms, benthic macroinvertebrates, and fish in North American Arctic rivers. Alpha diversity was assessed in relation to temperature, water chemistry, bedrock geology, and glaciation history to identify important environmental correlates. Biotic composition was compared among groups to evaluate response to environmental gradients. Macroinvertebrate α‐diversity declined strongly with increasing latitude from 48°N to 82°N, whereas diatom and fish diversity peaked around 70°N without a clear latitudinal decline. Macroinvertebrate diversity was significantly positively related to air temperature. Diatom diversity was related to bedrock geology and temperature, whereas fish diversity was related to glaciation history. Fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages differed between sites in western Canada, where invertebrate composition was more variable, and Alaska, where fish composition was more variable. In sites with both diatom and macroinvertebrate data, diatom composition was distinct in Alaska, where richness was highest in former glacial refugia. Macroinvertebrate composition was distinct in lowest‐latitude eastern and high‐latitude western Canadian sites where temperature was highest. Temperature, precipitation, geology, calcium, and substrate size were important environmental correlates for diatoms and macroinvertebrates, although the relative importance of each correlate differed. Diatom taxa were most strongly associated with water chemistry, whereas benthic invertebrate composition related most strongly to precipitation and temperature. This large‐scale study provides the most substantial integration and analysis of river diatom, macroinvertebrate, and fish data from the North American Arctic to date. Findings suggest that macroinvertebrates will show the strongest response to climate‐related shifts in temperature, whereas diatoms and fish are more likely to respond to climate‐induced shifts in nutrients and hydraulic connectivity. However, significant gaps in data coverage limited our ability to reliably evaluate spatial patterns and detect change. These gaps could be reduced by improving collaborative efforts between the U.S.A. and Canada to harmonise future monitoring.

Arctic↗
USGS2020

Bulk structure of the crust and upper mantle beneath Alaska from an approximate Rayleigh-wave dispersion formula

We introduce a method for estimating crustal thickness and bulk crustal and upper‐mantle shear‐wave velocities directly from high‐quality measurements of fundamental‐mode Rayleigh‐wave dispersion in the period range from 10 to 40 s. The method is based on an approximate Rayleigh‐wave dispersion formula and provides fast results with minimal model parameterization. We apply the method to Rayleigh‐wave phase maps in Alaska to reveal first‐order structure in a region that had not been systematically and densely instrumented prior to the Transportable Array (TA). To demonstrate the consistency of the results, we also apply the same method to existing Rayleigh‐wave phase maps derived from TA data in the conterminous United States, where crustal and upper mantle structures are better known. We contrast features observed in maps of crustal thickness and bulk shear‐wave velocity between the Cascadia and Alaska‐Aleutian subduction zones to highlight differences in the two regions. Our results show that, contrary to conventional wisdom, first‐order information on the location of major depth discontinuities (e.g., the Moho) can be extracted in a fast, straightforward manner from measurements of Rayleigh‐wave dispersion alone.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2020

Evaluating the migration mortality hypothesis using monarch tagging data

The decline in the eastern North American population of the monarch butterfly population since the late 1990s has been attributed to the loss of milkweed during the summer breeding season and the consequent reduction in the size of the summer population that migrates to central Mexico to overwinter (milkweed limitation hypothesis). However, in some studies the size of the summer population was not found to decline and was not correlated with the size of the overwintering population. The authors of these studies concluded that milkweed limitation could not explain the overwintering population decline. They hypothesized that increased mortality during fall migration was responsible (migration mortality hypothesis). We used data from the long-term monarch tagging program, managed by Monarch Watch, to examine three predictions of the migration mortality hypothesis: (1) that the summer population size is not correlated with the overwintering population size, (2) that migration success is the main determinant of overwintering population size, and (3) that migration success has declined over the last two decades. As an index of the summer population size, we used the number of wild-caught migrating individuals tagged in the U.S. Midwest from 1998 to 2015. As an index of migration success we used the recovery rate of Midwest tagged individuals in Mexico. With regard to the three predictions: (1) the number of tagged individuals in the Midwest, explained 74% of the variation in the size of the overwintering population. Other measures of summer population size were also correlated with overwintering population size. Thus, there is no disconnection between late summer and winter population sizes. (2) Migration success was not significantly correlated with overwintering population size, and (3) migration success did not decrease during this period. Migration success was correlated with the level of greenness of the area in the southern U.S. used for nectar by migrating butterflies. Thus, the main determinant of yearly variation in overwintering population size is summer population size with migration success being a minor determinant. Consequently, increasing milkweed habitat, which has the potential of increasing the summer monarch population, is the conservation measure that will have the greatest impact.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2020

Wildfire-driven forest conversion in western North American landscapes

Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, forest recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer and drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome of the loss of resilience is the conversion of the prefire forest to a different forest type or nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, and enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, or functions, with impacts on ecosystem services. In the present article, we synthesize a growing body of evidence of fire-driven conversion and our understanding of its causes across western North America. We assess our capacity to predict conversion and highlight important uncertainties. Increasing forest vulnerability to changing fire activity and climate compels shifts in management approaches, and we propose key themes for applied research coproduced by scientists and managers to support decision-making in an era when the prefire forest may not return.

Alaska, Alberta, Arizona, British Columbia, Califo↗
USGS2020

The potential of using dynamic strains in earthquake early warning applications

We investigate the potential of using borehole strainmeter data from the Network of the Americas (NOTA) and the U.S. Geological Survey networks to estimate earthquake moment magnitudes for earthquake early warning (EEW) applications. We derive an empirical equation relating peak dynamic strain, earthquake moment magnitude, and hypocentral distance, and investigate the effects of different types of instrument calibration on model misfit. We find that raw (uncalibrated) strains fit the model as accurately as calibrated strains. We test the model by estimating moment magnitudes of the largest two earthquakes in the July 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence—the M 6.4 foreshock and the M 7.1 mainshock—using two strainmeters located within ∼50 km of the rupture. In both the cases, the magnitude based on the dynamic strain component is within ∼0.1–0.4 magnitude units of the catalog moment magnitude. We then compare the temporal evolution of our strain‐derived magnitudes for the largest two Ridgecrest events to the real‐time performance of the ShakeAlert EEW System (SAS). The final magnitudes from NOTA borehole strainmeters are close to SAS real‐time estimates for the M 6.4 foreshock, and significantly more accurate for the M 7.1 mainshock.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗