Geology topics

W. P. Aspinall

Publications and source records attributed to W. P. Aspinall.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2014

Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment

The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke’s approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke’s approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments coupled with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The performance-based scoring system reflects the combined measure of an expert’s informativeness about variables in the problem area under consideration, and their ability to enumerate, in a statistically accurate way through expressing their true beliefs, the quantitative uncertainties associated with their assessments. We summarize the findings of an expert elicitation workshop in which a dozen earthquake-engineering professionals from around the world were engaged to estimate seismic collapse fragility for generic construction types. Development of seismic collapse fragility functions was accomplished by combining their judgments using weights derived from Cooke’s method. Although substantial effort was needed to elicit the inputs of these experts successfully, we anticipate that the elicitation strategy described here will gain momentum in a wide variety of earthquake seismology and engineering hazard and risk analyses where physical model and data limitations are inherent and objective professional judgment can fill gaps.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1998

Soufrière Hills eruption, Montserrat, 1995 - 1997: volcanic earthquake locations and fault plane solutions

A total of 9242 seismic events, recorded since the start of the eruption on Montserrat in July 1995, have been uniformly relocated with station travel-time corrections. Early seismicity was generally diffuse under southern Montserrat, and mostly restricted to depths less than 7 km. However, a NE-SW alignment of epicentres beneath the NE flank of the volcano emerged in one swarm of volcano-tectonic earthquakes (VTs) and later nests of VT hypocentres developed beneath the volcano and at a separated location, under St. George's Hill. The overall spatial distribution of hypocentres suggests a minimum depth of about 5 km for any substantial magma body. Activity associated with the opening of a conduit to the surface became increasingly shallow, with foci concentrated below the crater and, after dome building started in Fall 1995, VTs diminished and repetitive swarms of ‘hybrid’ seismic events became predominant. By late-1996, as magma effusion rates escalated, most seismic events were originating within a volume about 2 km diameter which extended up to the surface from only about 3 km depth - the diminution of shear failure earthquakes suggests the pathway for magma discharge had become effectively unconstricted. Individual and composite fault plane solutions have been determined for a few larger earthquakes. We postulate that localised extensional stress conditions near the linear VT activity, due to interaction with stresses in the overriding lithospheric plate, may encourage normal fault growth and promote sector weaknesses in the volcano.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS1998

The Soufriere Hills eruption, Montserrat, British West Indies: Introduction to special section, part 1

The special section on the eruption of Soufriere Hills volcano is a collection of 24 papers that summarises the early scientific work of the Montserrat Volcano Observatory. Part 1 of the special section, published in a previous issue of GRL , provided a sampling of the multidisciplinary investigations undertaken at Montserrat. The papers published in Part 1 included an overview of the eruption, investigations on seismicity, ground deformation studies, and petrology. The papers of this issue comprise Part 2 of the special section. These papers also cover a broad spectrum of topics, including various topics in seismology, petrology, pyroclastic flow models, gas chemistry, hydrothermal systems, and tsunami models. In general, papers in Part 1 may be said to be more observational- or data-orientated, and those of Part 2 more model-orientated, but indeed there is much overlap of descriptive material, data, and modelling within the individual contributions. Considered in total the collection presents a representative summary of the scientific effort carried out in Montserrat through much of 1997.

Geophysical Research Letters↗