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Thomas L. Pratt

Publications and source records attributed to Thomas L. Pratt.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Structural evolution and slip rate variations through time of the Puente-Hills blind-thrust fault beneath Los Angeles: Implications for seismic hazard and folding kinematics

Using seismic reflection profiles, historical well logging data, and luminescence and radiocarbon ages, we determine a Pleistocene-Holocene slip history for the central, Santa Fe Springs segment of the Puente Hills blind-thrust fault (PHT), a major seismogenic fault situated beneath the urbanized Los Angeles metropolitan region. We analyze the geometry of correlative stratigraphic units in the forelimb and backlimb of the overlying growth-fold, the Santa Fe Springs anticline, and determine the uplift of seven age-correlative markers. Uplift measurements are converted to thrust displacements on the underlying PHT using a structural method laid out by Don et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120220048 ) that accounts for the geometry of the fault. These data indicate that deep thrust displacement on the PHT is partially consumed updip in the creation of a hanging-wall fault-bend fold, with forelimb growth strata recording <80% of the slip documented within the backlimb. Chronological data from growth strata yield age constraints for folding and faulting on the underlying PHT, providing a detailed incremental slip history derived from both the forelimb and backlimb folding for seven discrete growth horizons, spanning the past 1.4 million years. The resulting six incremental slip rates demonstrate that fault slip has varied through time from the middle Pleistocene to the Holocene. Moreover, these results reveal synchronous acceleration of both the central, Santa Fe Springs and western, Los Angeles segments of the fault system since late Pleistocene time (after 200 ka) and slip rates of greater than 2 mm/yr on the downdip, backlimb, fault-ramp below the anticline.

California↗

2025 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands: Overview of model and hazard results

The U.S. Geological Survey recently updated the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI). The first version of the PRVI NSHM was released in 2003, and therefore this 2025 update includes over 20 years of new geologic, geophysical, and engineering data, methods, and models. Updates follow similar efforts performed in the recent 2023 50-state NSHM. However, this is the first NSHM in which we: (1) apply an inversion methodology to subduction interface fault sources in the earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) model; (2) develop scaled backbone median ground-motion models and independent aleatory variability models that are applied in the ground-motion characterization (GMC) model; and (3) calculate epistemic uncertainty related to alternative scenarios in the ERF and GMC models for all grid points in the study region. Long-term time-independent mean hazard calculations were performed for peak ground acceleration and 5%-damped pseudospectral acceleration at 21 spectral periods from 0.01- to 10.0-s, for eight National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program site conditions ranging from V S30 = 150 to 1500 m/s, and for 2%, 5%, and 10% in 50-year probabilities of exceedance (return periods of 2475, 975, and 475 years, respectively). Epistemic uncertainty, in the form of selected percentiles, is also provided for a suite of test sites and all grid points in the study region for limited periods, site conditions, and probabilities of exceedance. Selected results, including comparisons with the 2003 PRVI NSHM, are shown and discussed for selected periods, site conditions, and probabilities of exceedance. When comparing the 2025 PRVI NSHM with the 2003 PRVI NSHM, hazard is generally higher at shorter periods and lower at longer periods, as a result of updates in both ERF and GMC models. The 2025 PRVI NSHM is applicable for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗

Characterizing precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) in the eastern United States for estimating maximum past earthquake ground motions

Fragile geologic features (FGFs) can be used to estimate an upper bound to the strength of earthquake ground shaking in the past thousands to tens of thousands of years. FGFs could be especially useful in the eastern United States, where few active faults are available for paleoseismic studies and where low seismic attenuation means that an earthquake could damage FGFs at large distances. This article describes a pilot study of one form of FGF, precariously balanced rocks (PBRs), in the Blue Ridge of Virginia, ∼160 km from the central Virginia seismic zone (CVSZ) and ∼100 km from Virginia’s Giles County seismic zone (GCSZ). The main goal is to develop and refine methods for studying PBRs in the eastern United States. Photogrammetric 3D models of the rocks were used to locate their centers of mass and delineate their basal contacts, with the latter corroborated by wrapping a wire around the bases to verify the circumferences. Relations between hill geometry and amplification were used to estimate topographic amplification. Seismometers on the PBRs provided the frequencies, amplitudes, and directions of rocking after giving the rocks gentle pushes. The levels of ground shaking likely to topple the rocks were compared with the median hazard curves from the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Seismic Hazard Model and were used to map magnitudes of earthquakes in the nearby region likely to topple the rocks. Results indicate that an M w ≥ 7.5 earthquake is needed in the CVSZ or near the 2020 Sparta, North Carolina, earthquake to topple the two most fragile PBRs and that an earthquake of ~ M w 7–7.5 in the GCSZ is needed. The fragilities and estimated ages of the PBRs (20–40 ka) are thus consistent with the absence of such events in the historical record in the nearby region.

eastern United States↗

Use of precariously balanced rocks to constrain postglacial earthquake magnitudes in New England, United States

We use the age and fragility of 13 precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and southwestern Maine to evaluate the estimated probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) from the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), and also develop a map of maximum postglacial earthquake magnitudes in the region. The PBRs are erratic boulders left behind by the retreat of the Laurentide ice sheet between 13 and 18 ka, and published ice retreat maps are used to estimate their fragility ages. The fragilities and ages of the rocks appear to be consistent with the NSHM, in that the estimated earthquake magnitudes and resulting ground motions that would topple them are only expected on timescales longer than their fragility ages. This result, on the North American passive margin, contrasts with PBR studies at active plate boundaries, where the PBR constraints imply large reductions to estimated PSH. It may be that the PBRs are not old enough in the eastern United States to reveal the same PSH modeling issues as those revealed in the plate boundary settings. The study provides constraints on maximum magnitudes of postglacial earthquakes across much of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and southwestern Maine, with the constraints limited to the ages of the PBRs.

Maine. Massachusetts, New Hampshire↗

Using crustal-scale refraction data of joint inversions of Rayleigh-wave dispersion curves and H/V spectral ratios for Atlantic Coastal Plain velocity structure, eastern U.S.

Shallow shear‐wave velocities ( ⁠⁠ V s ) sometimes are estimated from joint inversions of horizontal‐to‐vertical (H/V) spectral ratios and surface‐wave dispersion curves derived from ambient noise or small active sources. Here, we evaluate carrying out these inversions using Rayleigh‐wave dispersion curves computed from crustal‐scale P ‐wave seismic refraction data. We use data from the 2014–2015 Eastern North American Margin (ENAM) experiment in Virginia and North Carolina, but similar seismic refraction data sets have been acquired over sedimentary basins of interest for seismic hazard studies, including in major urban areas. The ENAM project deployed a pair of ∼215 km long, northwest–southeast linear arrays with ∼300 m receiver spacing to record 11 dynamite shots, and 80 continuously recording seismometers with 5–6 km spacing along the same arrays to record offshore airguns. The arrays crossed the onland portion of the Atlantic Coastal Plain sediments, which are a seaward‐thickening wedge of Cretaceous and younger sediments deposited mostly on crystalline bedrock. We compute Rayleigh‐wave dispersion curves from 3 to 9 km long portions of the receiver arrays on each side of the dynamite shots, and we compute ambient‐noise H/V ratios from the continuously recording seismometers. We use a genetic inversion algorithm in which forward velocity models in each “generation” are evaluated for misfits compared to the observed data, with subsequent generations constructed from the models with the smallest misfits. Velocities to depths of 500 m are defined well, as shown by a narrow range of velocities in the best‐fit models, by the consistency between multiple inversion runs at a site, and by forward modeling of site responses. The resulting velocity cross‐section of the Coastal Plain strata has seaward‐dipping contours in the thinner portions of the Coastal Plain but smaller dips in the deeper portions. We interpret these results as showing that velocity contours in the ACP strata are influenced by a combination of lithology and overburden pressure. Results demonstrate that existing seismic refraction data have the potential for determining detailed shallow shear‐wave velocity profiles.

eastern United States↗

Geologic input databases for the 2025 Puerto Rico – U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model update: Crustal faults component

The last National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) was published in 2003. In advance of the 2025 PRVI NSHM update, we created three geologic input databases to summarize new onshore and offshore fault source information in the northern Caribbean region between 62°–70° W and 16°–21° N. These databases, of fault sections, fault‐zone polygons, and geologic estimates of fault activity (fault‐slip rate and earthquake recurrence intervals) at specific sites, document updates to fault parameters used in prior seismic hazard models in PRVI. Fault sources were reviewed from published studies since 2003, which document substantial changes to the understanding of fault location, geometry, or activity. New fault section sources were added for features that meet the criteria of (1) length ≥7 km, (2) unequivocal evidence of recurrent tectonic Quaternary activity, and (3) documentation that is publicly available in a peer‐reviewed source. In addition, we revised several broad areal sources, such as the Mona and Anegada extensional zones. The 2003 model included three fault sections and two fault‐zone polygons (areal sources). These databases include 35 fault sections, 6 fault‐zone polygons, and 51 earthquake geology sites. To characterize fault activity rates, slip‐rate bins were assigned based on landscape expression and paleoseismic trench observations for faults without published slip‐rate sites. Additional fault sources were evaluated but not included in these databases due to a lack of published information about fault location, geometry, or recurrent Quaternary activity. The PRVI NSHM 2025 geologic input databases describe crustal faulting; the geometries and coupling of Puerto Rico subduction zone and Muertos Trough models are considered in a separate database. Updates to the fault sections, fault‐zone polygons, and earthquake geology databases can help inform the location and recurrence rate of damaging earthquakes in the PRVI NSHM implementation.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗

Precariously balanced rocks in northern New York and Vermont, U.S.A.: Ground-motion constraints and implications for fault sources

Precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) and other fragile geologic features have the potential to constrain the maximum intensity of earthquake ground shaking over millennia. Such constraints may be particularly useful in the eastern United States (U.S.), where few earthquake‐source faults are reliably identified, and moderate earthquakes can be felt at great distances due to low seismic attenuation. We describe five PBRs in northern New York and Vermont—a region of elevated seismic hazard associated with historical seismicity. These boulders appear to be among the most fragile PBRs in the region, based on reports from hobbyists. The PBRs are glacial erratics, best evidenced by glacial striations on bedrock pedestals. The pedestals themselves are locally high knobs, often situated on regionally high topography; this setting limits soil development and indicates that any outwash deposits were likely ephemeral. As a result, PBR ages can be reliably established by the retreat of the last continental ice sheet, ∼15–13 ka. To quantify the fragility of the PBRs, we surveyed them with ground‐based light detection and ranging and calculated geometric parameters from the point clouds, field observations, and seismic responses. Preliminary validation of the 2023 time‐independent U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) shows that the existence of PBRs is generally consistent with the median site‐specific hazard curves. Only the Blue Ridge Road site suggests a modest reduction in hazard. To visualize the ensemble of data, we mapped the minimum permissible distance to potential source faults around each PBR site as a function of source magnitude by using the ground‐motion models from the 2023 NSHM. Viewed in this manner, our data are consistent with potential M ∼6.5 earthquake‐source faults in many parts of the Lake Champlain Valley and northern Adirondack Mountains. Our work illustrates a potential pathway for better constraining earthquake‐source faults in regions of cryptic faults.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Shallow faulting and folding beneath south‐central Seattle, Washington State, from land‐based high‐resolution seismic‐reflection imaging

The geologic framework of the Seattle fault zone (SFZ) has been extensively studied, but the structure and fault strand locations in the central portion of the fault zone through the city of Seattle have remained controversial. Much of what is known about the SFZ has come from light detection and ranging (lidar)‐topographic surveys and paleoseismic investigations of fault scarps primarily west of Puget Sound, regional gravity and aeromagnetic modeling, and multiscale marine seismic imaging in waters both west and east of Seattle. We analyze ∼24 km of land‐based P ‐wave seismic‐reflection data that fill in a critical gap in our understanding of the SFZ beneath the urban areas of West Seattle, south‐central Seattle, and Mercer Island. These data image deformed strata in the upper 1 km, including upwarped Tertiary rock and younger sediments. Collectively, these data provide evidence for multiple Quaternary‐active thrust faults, back thrusts, and sub‐basins within the SFZ beneath the city of Seattle. The results indicate that multiple and potentially active back thrusts in the upper ∼500 m extend across the length of the SFZ and the entire urban corridor that may be analogous to those on Bainbridge Island west of Puget Sound.

Washington↗

Sediment thickness map of United States Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain Strata, and their influence on earthquake ground motions

With the recent successful accounting of basin depth ground-motion adjustments in seismic hazard analyses for select areas of the western United States, we move toward implementing similar adjustments in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains by constructing a sediment thickness model and evaluating multiple relevant site amplification models for central and eastern United States seismic hazard analyses. We digitize and combine existing sediment thickness data sets into a composite surface that delineates the base of Cretaceous sediments under the Atlantic Coastal Plain and the base of Mesozoic sediments under the Gulf Coastal Plain. Amplification models dependent on sediment thickness, site natural period, and source-to-site path length are compared with data sets of observed ground motions to evaluate the ability of the new models to improve ground motion estimates. We find that the amplification models can account for observed trends in sediment-thickness and period-dependent residuals, but some tuning is required. For example, the model of Chapman and Guo requires a reference V S 30 , the time-averaged shear-wave velocity within 30 m of the Earth’s surface, for non-Coastal Plain sites, which we estimate to be between about 1 and 2 km/s. Along with our sediment thickness model, we estimate a velocity profile for application to the Harmon et al. site-natural-period-based model in order to best match the Chapman and Guo period dependence for a broad range of sediment thicknesses. The Next Generation of Attenuation models for the eastern United States Gulf Coast path-based adjustment models can also account for seismic attenuation in the Coastal Plain sediments and reduce the standard deviation of total residuals. If enacted in the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model, these amplification models will reduce predicted short-period (<1 s) and increase predicted long-period (>1 s) ground motions in the Coastal Plains appreciably.

Earthquake Spectra↗

Rift basins and intraplate earthquakes: New high-resolution aeromagnetic data provide insights into buried structures of the Charleston, South Carolina seismic zone

The delineation of faults that pose seismic risk in intraplate seismic zones and the mapping of features associated with failed rift basins can help our understanding of links between the two. We use new high-resolution aeromagnetic data, previous borehole sample information, and reprocessed seismic reflection profiles to image subsurface structures and evaluate recent fault activity within the Charleston seismic zone, the associated Mesozoic South Georgia rift basin, and surrounds. The new aeromagnetic data provide an unprecedented view of buried basement structures. NE- and NW-trending lineaments of various lengths throughout the survey area are interpreted as Paleozoic orogenic structures and Mesozoic dikes, respectively. Within the rift basin, 15- to 20-km long ESE-trending lineaments are associated with faults in pre-Cretaceous strata of the reflection data and are interpreted as Mesozoic rift structures. Various intersections and terminations of interpreted faults suggest rift-related reactivation of Paleozoic faults and corresponding inheritance for Mesozoic structures. The reflection data show that several Paleozoic and Mesozoic faults are associated with deformation in Cretaceous and younger sediments, suggesting reactivation in the more recent passive margin setting. Two of these faults, one NE-striking and one ESE-striking, are coincident with surficial landforms, suggesting Quaternary slip; the ESE-striking fault is also well-aligned with a plan-view offset in modern seismicity. A favorable orientation for reverse motion on ESE-striking Mesozoic faults, a possible sub-basin, and potentially weakened lithosphere are failed rift basin features that may influence intraplate seismicity within the Charleston seismic zone.

South Carolina↗

U.S. Geological Survey coastal plain amplification virtual workshop

In early October of 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) held a virtual workshop to discuss Gulf and Atlantic Coastal Plains site-response models. Earthquake researchers came together to assess (1) research related to proposed Coastal Plains amplification models and (2) USGS plans for implementing these models. Presentations spanned a broad range of topics from Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains geophysical properties including seismic velocity and attenuation, to ground motion amplification models and their impacts on seismic hazard. Interspersed with these presentations were discussions regarding the definition and extent of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, potential complexities of wave propagation in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, and problems that need to be overcome to implement various proposed site-response models. Based on feedback from this workshop, the USGS working group on Coastal Plain Amplification is considering applying published models that depend on sediment thickness. The working group is also exploring potential application of models that depend on the length of path traversed across the Coastal Plain, including the Gulf Coastal Plain ground-motion model adjustments from the Next Generation Attenuation Relationships for the Eastern United States.

Gulf and Atlantic Coast Plains↗

Shallow faulting and folding in the epicentral area of the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake

The moment magnitude ( ⁠ M w "> M w �w ⁠ ) ∼7 earthquake that struck Charleston, South Carolina, on 31 August 1886 is the largest historical earthquake in the United States east of the Appalachian Mountains. The fault(s) that ruptured during this earthquake has never been conclusively identified, and conflicting fault models have been proposed. Here we interpret reprocessed seismic reflection profiles, reprocessed legacy aeromagnetic data, and newly collected ground penetrating radar (GPR) profiles to delineate faults deforming the Cretaceous and younger Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP) strata in the epicentral area of the 1886 earthquake. The data show evidence for faults folding or vertically displacing ACP strata, including apparent displacements of near‐surface strata (upper ∼20 m). Aeromagnetic data show several northeast (NE)‐trending lineaments, two of which correlate with faults and folds with vertical displacements as great as 55 m on the seismic reflection and radar profiles. ACP strata show only minor thickness changes across these structures, indicating that much of the displacement postdates the shallowest well‐imaged ACP strata of Eocene age. Faults imaged on the seismic reflection profiles appear on GPR profiles to displace the erosional surface at the top of the upper Eocene to Oligocene Cooper Group, including where railroad tracks were bent during the 1886 earthquake. Some faults coincide with changes in river trends, bifurcations of river channels, and unusual river meanders that could be related to recent fault motion. In contrast to our interpreted NE fault trends, earthquake locations and some focal mechanisms in the modern seismic zone have been interpreted as defining a nearly north‐striking, west‐dipping zone of aftershocks from the 1886 earthquake. The relationship between the modern seismicity and the faults we image is therefore enigmatic. However, multiple faults in the area clearly have been active since the Eocene and deform strata in the upper 20 m, providing potential targets for field‐based geologic investigations.

South Carolina↗

Sediment thickness and ground motion site amplification along the United States Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains

Past and present research on earthquake ground motions along the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains and Mississippi Embayment show significant period-dependent site response that is not presently accounted for in ground motion models. These deviations are strongly correlated with the thickness of Mesozoic and younger syn- and post-rift sediments. With the recent incorporation of deep basin depth measurements in the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model for select regions in the western United States, we move toward a similar analysis in the greater Coastal Plains region by constructing a sediment thickness model and considering three new site response models conditioned on sediment thickness. As of the preparation of this conference paper, we have performed a preliminary evaluation of the Chapman and Guo model and find that the predicted ratio between pseudo-spectral accelerations for the Coastal Plains relative to the continental interior are broadly consistent with our independent dataset.

Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains↗

Evaluating spectral ratio methods for characterizing fundamental resonance peaks on flat sediments: An example from the Atlantic Coastal Plain, Eastern United States

Damaging ground motions from the 2011 M w "> M w 5.8 Virginia earthquake were likely increased due to site amplification from the unconsolidated sediments of the Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP), highlighting the need to understand site response on these widespread strata along the coastal regions of the eastern United States. The horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) method, using either earthquake signals or ambient noise as input, offers an appealing method for measuring site response on laterally extensive sediments, because it requires a single seismometer rather than requiring a nearby bedrock site to compute a horizontal sediment‐to‐bedrock spectral ratio (SBSR). Although previous studies show mixed results when comparing the two methods, the majority of these studies investigated site responses in confined sedimentary basins that can generate substantial 3D effects or have relatively small reflection coefficients at their base. In contrast, the flat‐lying ACP strata and the underlying bedrock reflector should cause 1D resonance effects to dominate site response, with amplification of the fundamental resonance peaks controlled by the strong impedance contrast between the base of the sediments and the underlying bedrock. We compare site‐response estimates on the ACP strata derived using the HVSR and SBSR methods from teleseismic signals recorded by regional arrays and observe a close match in the frequencies of the fundamental resonance peak ( ⁠ f 0 "> f 0 ⁠ ) determined by both methods. We find that correcting the HVSR amplitude using source term information from a bedrock site and multiplying the peak by a factor of 1.2 results in amplitude peaks that, on average, match SBSR results within a factor of 2. We therefore conclude that the HVSR method may successfully estimate regional linear weak‐motion site‐response amplifications from the ACP, or similar geologic environments, when appropriate region‐specific corrections to the amplitude ratios are used.

Atlantic Coastal Plain↗

Characterizing ground motion amplification by extensive flat sediments: The seismic response of the eastern U.S. Atlantic Coastal Plain strata

We examine the effects that Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP) strata have on ground motions in the eastern and southeastern United States. The ACP strata consist of widespread, nearly flat‐lying sediments, the upper portions of which are unconsolidated or semiconsolidated. The ACP sediments are deposited primarily on crystalline basement rocks, creating large velocity and density contrasts with the underlying rocks. At 211 sites on ACP strata to thicknesses of 4000 m, we compute spectral ratios relative to the average of four bedrock sites west or northwest of the strata. Sites consist of stations of Earthscope’s USArray Transportable Array (TA), and temporary deployments in the Southeast Suture of the Atlantic Margin Experiment (SESAME), Eastern North American Margin (ENAM) experiment, and the DCShake deployment in Washington, D.C. For the TA and SESAME stations, we use signals from 13 teleseisms and three regional earthquakes as input, combining the north and east components of motion after taking the Fourier transforms. We also include similarly processed site responses from the ENAM and DCShake arrays that were computed in earlier studies. Results show prominent, fundamental resonance peaks at frequencies determined by reverberations in the entire sediment column, and that often define the largest amplifications for each frequency. As frequencies increase, these resonance peaks migrate to thinner ACP strata and increase in amplitude. The peaks are well defined at frequencies below about 1 Hz, but become narrower and less defined regionally at higher frequencies. We develop simple equations to characterize amplification versus ACP thickness, which we approximate by cosine and Gaussian curves with amplifications of 1 on bedrock and rising to the resonance peak, and then decreasing to an average amplification at thicknesses greater than twice the resonance peak. Comparisons with other site corrections for the central and eastern United States based on sediment thickness show similarities on thin ACP strata but divergence on thicker sediments. The results also demonstrate the effectiveness of using teleseismic arrivals to characterize the site responses of sedimentary sequences.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Source-dependent amplification of earthquake ground motions in deep sedimentary basins

Deep sedimentary basins amplify long-period shaking from seismic waves, increasing the seismic hazard for cities within such basins. We perform 3-D simulations of point source earthquakes distributed around the Seattle and Tacoma basins in Washington State, to examine the dependence of basin amplification on source azimuth, depth, and earthquake type. For periods between 1-10 s, the pattern of amplification is spatially heterogeneous and differs considerably with the source-to-site azimuth. For close-in earthquakes, the greatest basin amplification occurs towards the far side of the basin and ground motions from crustal earthquakes experience greater amplification than those from more vertically-incident, deeper intraplate earthquakes. Love and Rayleigh waves form similar spatial patterns for a given source location, although the magnitude of amplification varies. The source dependence of basin amplification is an important factor for seismic hazard assessment, both in the Seattle and Tacoma basins, and by extension for deep sedimentary basins worldwide.

Washington↗