Geology topics

T.I. Allen

Publications and source records attributed to T.I. Allen.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2010

A revised ground-motion and intensity interpolation scheme for shakemap

We describe a weighted-average approach for incorporating various types of data (observed peak ground motions and intensities and estimates from groundmotion prediction equations) into the ShakeMap ground motion and intensity mapping framework. This approach represents a fundamental revision of our existing ShakeMap methodology. In addition, the increased availability of near-real-time macroseismic intensity data, the development of newrelationships between intensity and peak ground motions, and new relationships to directly predict intensity from earthquake source information have facilitated the inclusion of intensity measurements directly into ShakeMap computations. Our approach allows for the combination of (1) direct observations (ground-motion measurements or reported intensities), (2) observations converted from intensity to ground motion (or vice versa), and (3) estimated ground motions and intensities from prediction equations or numerical models. Critically, each of the aforementioned data types must include an estimate of its uncertainties, including those caused by scaling the influence of observations to surrounding grid points and those associated with estimates given an unknown fault geometry. The ShakeMap ground-motion and intensity estimates are an uncertainty-weighted combination of these various data and estimates. A natural by-product of this interpolation process is an estimate of total uncertainty at each point on the map, which can be vital for comprehensive inventory loss calculations. We perform a number of tests to validate this new methodology and find that it produces a substantial improvement in the accuracy of ground-motion predictions over empirical prediction equations alone.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2009

An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling

We present an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate-to-strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT) for recent historical earthquakes (1973-2007). The common purpose of the Atlas and exposure catalog is to calibrate earthquake loss models to be used in the US Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently comprises over 5,600 earthquakes from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained-to varying degrees-by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published earthquake rupture models. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by correlating Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical earthquake loss data, such as PAGER-CAT, provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. We illustrate two example uses for EXPO-CAT; (1) simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to earthquakes, and; (2) the influence of time-of-day on earthquake mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We also find little quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in earthquake mortality. Moreover, earthquake mortality appears to be more systematically linked to the population exposed to severe ground shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII+). Finally, equipped with the full Atlas of ShakeMaps, we merge each of these maps and find the maximum estimated peak ground acceleration at any grid point in the world for the past 35 years. We subsequently compare this "composite ShakeMap" with existing global hazard models, calculating the spatial area of the existing hazard maps exceeded by the combined ShakeMap ground motions. In general, these analyses suggest that existing global, and regional, hazard maps tend to overestimate hazard. Both the Atlas of ShakeMaps and EXPO-CAT have many potential uses for examining earthquake risk and epidemiology. All of the datasets discussed herein are available for download on the PAGER Web page ( http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ eqcenter/pager/prodandref/ ). ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering↗

USGS2009

On the use of high-resolution topographic data as a proxy for seismic site conditions (V S30 )

An alternative method has recently been proposed for evaluating global seismic site conditions, or the average shear velocity to 30 m depth (V S30 ), from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) 30 arcsec digital elevation models (DEMs). The basic premise of the method is that the topographic slope can be used as a reliable proxy for V S30 in the absence of geologically and geotechnically based site-condition maps through correlations between VS30 measurements and topographic gradient. Here we evaluate the use of higher-resolution (3 and 9 arcsec) DEMs to examine whether we are able to resolve V S30 in more detail than can be achieved using the lower-resolution SRTM data. High-quality DEMs at resolutions greater than 30 arcsec are not uniformly available at the global scale. However, in many regions where such data exist, they may be employed to resolve finer-scale variations in topographic gradient, and consequently, V S30 . We use the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Data Center's National Elevation Dataset (NED) to investigate the use of high-resolution DEMs for estimating V S30 in several regions across the United States, including the San Francisco Bay area in California, Los Angeles, California, and St. Louis, Missouri. We compare these results with an example from Taipei, Taiwan, that uses 9 arcsec SRTM data, which are globally available. The use of higher-resolution NED data recovers finer-scale variations in topographic gradient, which better correlate to geological and geomorphic features, in particular, at the transition between hills and basins, warranting their use over 30 arcsec SRTM data where available. However, statistical analyses indicate little to no improvement over lower-resolution topography when compared to V S30 measurements, suggesting that some topographic smoothing may provide more stable V S30 estimates. Furthermore, we find that elevation variability in canopy-based SRTM measurements at resolutions greater than 30 arcsec are too large to resolve reliable slopes, particularly in low-gradient sedimentary basins.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2009

PAGER-CAT: A composite earthquake catalog for calibrating global fatality models

We have described the compilation and contents of PAGER-CAT, an earthquake catalog developed principally for calibrating earthquake fatality models. It brings together information from a range of sources in a comprehensive, easy to use digital format. Earthquake source information (e.g., origin time, hypocenter, and magnitude) contained in PAGER-CAT has been used to develop an Atlas of Shake Maps of historical earthquakes (Allen et al. 2008) that can subsequently be used to estimate the population exposed to various levels of ground shaking (Wald et al. 2008). These measures will ultimately yield improved earthquake loss models employing the uniform hazard mapping methods of ShakeMap. Currently PAGER-CAT does not consistently contain indicators of landslide and liquefaction occurrence prior to 1973. In future PAGER-CAT releases we plan to better document the incidence of these secondary hazards. This information is contained in some existing global catalogs but is far from complete and often difficult to parse. Landslide and liquefaction hazards can be important factors contributing to earthquake losses (e.g., Marano et al. unpublished). Consequently, the absence of secondary hazard indicators in PAGER-CAT, particularly for events prior to 1973, could be misleading to sorne users concerned with ground-shaking-related losses. We have applied our best judgment in the selection of PAGER-CAT's preferred source parameters and earthquake effects. We acknowledge the creation of a composite catalog always requires subjective decisions, but we believe PAGER-CAT represents a significant step forward in bringing together the best available estimates of earthquake source parameters and reports of earthquake effects. All information considered in PAGER-CAT is stored as provided in its native catalog so that other users can modify PAGER preferred parameters based on their specific needs or opinions. As with all catalogs, the values of some parameters listed in PAGER-CAT are highly uncertain, particularly the casualty numbers, which must be regarded as estimates rather than firm numbers for many earthquakes. Consequently, we encourage contributions from the seismology and earthquake engineering communities to further improve this resource via the Wikipedia page and personal communications, for the benefit of the whole community.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2008

Rapid exposure and loss estimates for the May 12, 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake provided by the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system

One half-hour after the May 12th Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system distributed an automatically generated alert stating that 1.2 million people were exposed to severe-to-extreme shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII or greater). It was immediately clear that a large-scale disaster had occurred. These alerts were widely distributed and referenced by the major media outlets and used by governments, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses. The PAGER alerts and Web pages included predictive ShakeMaps showing estimates of ground shaking, maps of population density, and a list of estimated intensities at impacted cities. Manual, revised alerts were issued in the following hours that included the dimensions of the fault rupture. Within a half-day, PAGER’s estimates of the population exposed to strong shaking levels stabilized at 5.2 million people. A coordinated research effort is underway to extend PAGER’s capability to include estimates of the number of casualties. We are pursuing loss models that will allow PAGER the flexibility to use detailed inventory and engineering results in regions where these data are available while also calculating loss estimates in regions where little is known about the type and strength of the built infrastructure. Prototype PAGER fatality estimates are currently implemented and can be manually triggered. In the hours following the Wenchuan earthquake, these models predicted fatalities in the tens of thousands.

Wenchua↗

USGS2008

Development of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response)

The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System plays a primary alerting role for global earthquake disasters as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) response protocol. We provide an overview of the PAGER system, both of its current capabilities and our ongoing research and development. PAGER monitors the USGS’s near real-time U.S. and global earthquake origins and automatically identifies events that are of societal importance, well in advance of ground-truth or news accounts. Current PAGER notifications and Web pages estimate the population exposed to each seismic intensity level. In addition to being a useful indicator of potential impact, PAGER’s intensity/exposure display provides a new standard in the dissemination of rapid earthquake information. We are currently developing and testing a more comprehensive alert system that will include casualty estimates. This is motivated by the idea that an estimated range of possible number of deaths will aid in decisions regarding humanitarian response. Underlying the PAGER exposure and loss models are global earthquake ShakeMap shaking estimates, constrained as quickly as possible by finite-fault modeling and observed ground motions and intensities, when available. Loss modeling is being developed comprehensively with a suite of candidate models that range from fully empirical to largely analytical approaches. Which of these models is most appropriate for use in a particular earthquake depends on how much is known about local building stocks and their vulnerabilities. A first-order country-specific global building inventory has been developed, as have corresponding vulnerability functions. For calibrating PAGER loss models, we have systematically generated an Atlas of 5,000 ShakeMaps for significant global earthquakes during the last 36 years. For many of these, auxiliary earthquake source and shaking intensity data are also available. Refinements to the loss models are ongoing. Fundamental to such an alert system, we are also developing computational and communications infrastructure for rapid and robust operations and worldwide notifications. PAGER’s methodologies and datasets are being developed in an open environment to support other loss estimation efforts and provide avenues for outside collaboration and critique.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2007

Attenuation of ground-motion spectral amplitudes in southeastern Australia

A dataset comprising some 1200 weak- and strong-motion records from 84 earthquakes is compiled to develop a regional ground-motion model for southeastern Australia (SEA). Events were recorded from 1993 to 2004 and range in size from moment magnitude 2.0 ??? M ??? 4.7. The decay of vertical-component Fourier spectral amplitudes is modeled by trilinear geometrical spreading. The decay of low-frequency spectral amplitudes can be approximated by the coefficient of R-1.3 (where R is hypocentral distance) within 90 km of the seismic source. From approximately 90 to 160 km, we observe a transition zone in which the seismic coda are affected by postcritical reflections from midcrustal and Moho discontinuities. In this hypocentral distance range, geometrical spreading is approximately R+0.1. Beyond 160 km, low-frequency seismic energy attenuates rapidly with source-receiver distance, having a geometrical spreading coefficient of R-1.6. The associated regional seismic-quality factor can be expressed by the polynomial: log Q(f) = 3.66 - 1.44 log f + 0.768 (log f)2 + 0.058 (log f)3 for frequencies 0.78 ??? f ??? 19.9 Hz. Fourier spectral amplitudes, corrected for geometrical spreading and anelastic attenuation, are regressed with M to obtain quadratic source scaling coefficients. Modeled vertical-component displacement spectra fit the observed data well. Amplitude residuals are, on average, relatively small and do not vary with hypocentral distance. Predicted source spectra (i.e., at R = 1 km) are consistent with eastern North American (ENA) Models at low frequencies (f less than approximately 2 Hz) indicating that moment magnitudes calculated for SEA earthquakes are consistent with moment magnitude scales used in ENA over the observed magnitude range. The models presented represent the first spectral ground-motion prediction equations develooed for the southeastern Australian region. This work provides a useful framework for the development of regional ground-motion relations for earthquake hazard and risk assessment in SEA.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2007

Comparison of earthquake source spectra and attenuation in eastern North America and southeastern Australia

The paucity of ground-motion data in stable continental regions (SCRs) remains a key limitation when developing relations that seek to predict effects of strong ground shaking from large damaging earthquakes. It is desirable to combine data from more than one SCR to increase database size, but this raises questions as to whether the source and attenuation properties of the SCRs are equivalent. We compare recently compiled spectral-amplitude databases from small to moderate events (moment magnitudes, 2.0 ??? M ??? 5.0) in both southeastern Australia and eastern North America (ENA). Both are SCRs but are widely separated, spatially and in tectonic history. We statistically compare ground motions by plotting mean and standard deviations of spectral amplitudes for data grouped in magnitude and distance bins. These comparisons show that the source and attenuation properties of the two regions are very similar, in particular, at shorter hypocentral distances R (i.e., R < 70 km). At larger distances, regional attenuation differences are observed that may be attributed to differences in crustal structure. We conclude that it is valid to combine the Australian and ENA ground-motion datasets in the development of ground-motion prediction equations, with some limitations in frequency and distance ranges. These ground-motion relations may serve as generic functions for SCRs around the world.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗