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Mary Anne Evans

Publications and source records attributed to Mary Anne Evans.

33 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2019

A space-time geostatistical model for probabilistic estimation of harmful algal bloom biomass and areal extent

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have been increasing in intensity across many waterbodies worldwide, including the western basin of Lake Erie. Substantial efforts have been made to track these blooms using in situ sampling and remote sensing. However, such measurements do not fully capture HAB spatial and temporal dynamics due to the limitations of discrete shipboard sampling over large areas and the effects of clouds and winds on remote sensing estimates. To address these limitations, we develop a space-time geostatistical modeling framework to improve estimates of HAB timing, extent, and intensity using five independent sets of chlorophyll a (chl-a) data sampled from June to October, 2008 to 2017. Based on the Bayesian information criterion for model selection, trend variables explain bloom northerly and easterly expansion from Maumee Bay, wind effects over depth, and variability among sampling methods. Cross validation results indicate the model can estimate daily, location-specific chl-a concentrations with reasonable accuracy (R2 = 55%) between monitoring cruises. Conditional simulations provide probabilistic estimates of algal biomass and surface areal extent, which are compared to remote sensing estimates. The simulations also provide, for the first time, comprehensive estimates of overall bloom biomass based on depth-integrated concentrations, with quantified uncertainties. These estimates enhance our understanding of HAB variability and can inform HAB monitoring network design, predictive modeling, and management.

Lake Erie↗
USGS2018

Water column nutrient processing rates in rivermouths of Green Bay (Lake Michigan)

Understanding the quantity and form of nutrient loads to large lakes is necessary to understand controls over primary production, phytoplankton community composition and the production of phytotoxins. Nutrient loading estimates to large lakes are primarily made at stream gages that are deliberately placed outside the direct influence of lake processes, but these estimates cannot take into account processes that occur in the biologically active river-to-lake transition zone. These transition zones (rivermouths) sometimes alter nutrient concentrations and ratios substantially, but few studies have directly measured processing rates of nutrients within rivermouths. From April through September 2016, we conducted 23 water column incubation experiments to measure nutrient loss rates in four rivermouths. First order loss rates ( K ) for inorganic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) indicated greater loss in light than in dark treatments, suggesting primary production increases N and P removal. Variability in K was high across both time and space, and the measured environmental parameters did not appear to be strongly associated with this variation in K for most N and P forms. If the measured K values and water residence times are accurate, then between 0 and 99% of the inorganic P and nitrates entering the rivermouth would be lost (i.e., converted to organic or particulate P). In late summer, Fox River discharge is low and residence times are usually long, which allow for much higher proportional nutrient removal in the water column. Water column processing appears to be capable of transforming large quantities of dissolved N and P to particulate forms and thus altering its transport and presumably its bioavailability.

Green Bay, Lake Michigan↗
USGS2017

Associations between cyanobacteria and indices of secondary production in the western basin of Lake Erie

Large lakes provide a variety of ecological services to surrounding cities and communities. Many of these services are supported by ecological processes that are threatened by the increasing prevalence of cyanobacterial blooms which occur as aquatic ecosystems experience cultural eutrophication. Over the past 10 yr, Lake Erie experienced cyanobacterial blooms of increasing severity and frequency, which have resulted in impaired drinking water for the surrounding communities. Cyanobacterial blooms may impact ecological processes that support other services, but many of these impacts have not been documented. Secondary production (production of primary consumers) is an important process that supports economically important higher trophic levels. Cyanobacterial blooms may influence secondary production because cyanobacteria are a poor‐quality food resource and cyanotoxins may be harmful to consumers. Over 3 yr at 34 sites across the western basin of Lake Erie, we measured three indices of secondary production that focus on the dominant bivalve taxa: (1) growth of a native unionid mussel, (2) the size of young‐of‐year dreissenid mussels, and (3) the mass of colonizing animals on a Hester‐Dendy sampler. Associations between these indices and cyanobacterial data were estimated to assess whether cyanobacteria are associated with variation in secondary production in the western basin of Lake Erie. The results suggest cyanobacterial abundance alone is only weakly associated with secondary production, but that cyanotoxins have a larger effect on secondary production. Given recurring late‐summer cyanobacterial blooms, this impact on secondary production has the potential to undermine Lake Erie's ability to sustain important ecosystem services.

Lake Erie↗
USGS2017

Understanding ecosystem services adoption by natural resource managers and research ecologists

The ecosystem services (ES) paradigm has gained much traction as a natural resource management approach due to its comprehensive nature and ability to provide quantitative tools to improve decision-making. However, it is still uncertain whether and how practitioners have adopted the ES paradigm into their work and how this aligns with resource management information needs. To address this, we surveyed natural resource managers within the Great Lakes region about their use of ES information in decision-making. We complemented our manager survey with in-depth interviews of a related population—research ecologists at the U.S. Geological Survey Great Lakes Science Center. In this study, managers and ecologists almost unanimously agreed that ES were appropriate to consider in resource management. We also found high congruence between managers and ecologists in the ES considered most relevant to their work, with provision of habitat, recreation and tourism, biological control, and primary production being the ES ranked highly by both groups. However, a disconnect arose when research ecologists deemed the information they provide regarding ES as adequate for management needs, but managers disagreed. Furthermore, managers reported that they would use economic information about ES if they had access to that information. We believe this data deficiency could represent a gap in scientific coverage by ecologists, but it may also simply reflect an underrepresentation of ecological economists who can translate ecological knowledge of ES providers into economic information that many managers desired.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2016

Graphical function mapping as a new way to explore cause-and-effect chains

Graphical function mapping provides a simple method for improving communication within interdisciplinary research teams and between scientists and nonscientists. This article introduces graphical function mapping using two examples and discusses its usefulness. Function mapping projects the outcome of one function into another to show the combined effect. Using this mathematical property in a simpler, even cartoon-like, graphical way allows the rapid combination of multiple information sources (models, empirical data, expert judgment, and guesses) in an intuitive visual to promote further discussion, scenario development, and clear communication.

Fisheries↗
USGS2016

Measuring spatial variation in secondary production and food quality using a common consumer approach in Lake Erie

Lake Erie is a large lake straddling the border of the U.S. and Canada that has become increasingly eutrophic in recent years. Eutrophication is particularly focused in the shallow western basin. The western basin of Lake Erie is hydrodynamically similar to a large estuary, with riverine inputs from the Detroit and Maumee Rivers mixing together and creating gradients in chemical and physical conditions. This study was driven by two questions: How does secondary production and food quality for consumers vary across this large mixing zone? and Are there correlations between cyanobacterial abundance and secondary production or food quality for consumers? Measuring spatial and temporal variation in secondary production and food quality is difficult for a variety of logistical reasons, so here a common consumer approach was used. In a common consumer approach, individuals of a single species are raised under similar conditions until placed in the field across environmental gradients of interest. After some period of exposure, the response of that common consumer is measured to provide an index of spatial variation in conditions. Here, a freshwater mussel (Lampsilis siliquoidea) was deployed at 32 locations that spanned habitat types and a gradient in cyanobacterial abundance in the western basin of Lake Erie to measure spatial variation in growth (an index of secondary production) and fatty acid (FA) content (an index of food quality). We found secondary production was highest within the Maumee rivermouth and lowest in the open waters of the lake. Mussel tissues in the Maumee rivermouth also included more eicosapentaenoic and docosapentaenoic fatty acids (EPA and DPA, respectively), but fewer bacterial FAs, suggesting more algae at the base of the food web in the Maumee rivermouth compared to open lake sites. The satellite-derived estimate of cyanobacterial abundance was not correlated to secondary production, but was positively related to EPA and DPA content in the mussels, suggesting more of these important FAs in locations with more cyanobacteria. These results suggest that growth of secondary consumers and the availability of important fatty acids in the western basin are centered on the Maumee rivermouth.

Lake Erie↗
USGS2016

Internal loading of phosphorus in western Lake Erie

This study applied eight techniques to obtain estimates of the diffusive flux of phosphorus (P) from bottom sediments throughout the western basin of Lake Erie. The flux was quantified from both aerobic and anaerobic incubations of whole cores; by monitoring the water encapsulated in bottom chambers; from pore water concentration profiles measured with a phosphate microelectrode, a diffusive equilibrium in thin films (DET) hydrogel, and expressed pore waters; and from mass balance and biogeochemical diagenetic models. Fluxes under aerobic conditions at summertime temperatures averaged 1.35 mg P/m 2 /day and displayed spatial variability on scales as small as a centimeter. Using two different temperature correction factors, the flux was adjusted to mean annual temperature yielding average annual fluxes of 0.43–0.91 mg P/m 2 /day and a western basin-wide total of 378–808 Mg P/year as the diffusive flux from sediments. This is 3–7% of the 11,000 Mg P/year International Joint Commission (IJC) target load for phosphorus delivery to Lake Erie from external sources. Using these average aerobic fluxes, the sediment contributes 3.0–6.3 μg P/L as a background internal contribution that represents 20–42% of the IJC Target Concentration of 15 μg P/L for the western basin. The implication is that this internal diffusive recycling of P is unlikely to trigger cyanobacterial blooms by itself but is sufficiently large to cause blooms when combined with external loads. This background flux may be also responsible for delayed response of the lake to any decrease in the external loading.

Lake Erie↗
USGS2016

Spatial variation in biofouling of a unionid mussel ( Lampsilis siliquoidea ) across the western basin of Lake Erie

Invasion of North American waters by nonnative Dreissena polymorpha and D. rostriformis bugensis has resulted in declines of the Unionidae family of native North American mussels. Dreissenid mussels biofoul unionid mussels in large numbers and interfere with unionid movement, their acquisition of food, and the native mussels' ability to open and close their shells. Initial expectations for the Great Lakes included extirpation of unionids where they co-occurred with dreissenids, but recently adult and juvenile unionids have been found alive in several apparent refugia. These unionid populations may persist due to reduced dreissenid biofouling in these areas, and/or due to processes that remove biofoulers. For example locations inaccessible to dreissenid veligers may reduce biofouling and habitats with soft substrates may allow unionids to burrow and thus remove dreissenids. We deployed caged unionid mussels ( Lampsilis siliquoidea ) at 36 sites across the western basin of Lake Erie to assess spatial variation in biofouling and to identify other areas that might promote the persistence or recovery of native unionid mussels. Biofouling ranged from 0.03 – 26.33 g per mussel, reached a maximum in the immediate vicinity of the mouth of the Maumee River, and appeared to primarily consist of dreissenid mussels. A known mussel refugium in the vicinity of a power plant near the mouth of the Maumee actually exhibited very high biofouling rates, suggesting that low dreissenid colonization did not adequately explain unionid survival in this refugium. In contrast, the southern nearshore area of Lake Erie, near another refugium, had very low biofouling. A large stretch of the western basin appeared to have low biofouling rates and muddy substrates, raising the possibility that these open water areas could support remnant and returning populations of unionid mussels. Previous observations of unionid refugia and the occurrence of low biofouling rates in large areas of the western basin of Lake Erie raise the possibility that unionid and dreissenid coexistence may be possible here and elsewhere.

Michigan, Ohio↗
USGS2014

Assessing and addressing the re-eutrophication of Lake Erie: central basin hypoxia

Relieving phosphorus loading is a key management tool for controlling Lake Erie eutrophication. During the 1960s and 1970s, increased phosphorus inputs degraded water quality and reduced central basin hypolimnetic oxygen levels which, in turn, eliminated thermal habitat vital to cold-water organisms and contributed to the extirpation of important benthic macroinvertebrate prey species for fishes. In response to load reductions initiated in 1972, Lake Erie responded quickly with reduced water-column phosphorus concentrations, phytoplankton biomass, and bottom-water hypoxia (dissolved oxygen < 2 mg/l). Since the mid-1990s, cyanobacteria blooms increased and extensive hypoxia and benthic algae returned. We synthesize recent research leading to guidance for addressing this re-eutrophication, with particular emphasis on central basin hypoxia. We document recent trends in key eutrophication-related properties, assess their likely ecological impacts, and develop load response curves to guide revised hypoxia-based loading targets called for in the 2012 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. Reducing central basin hypoxic area to levels observed in the early 1990s (ca. 2000 km 2 ) requires cutting total phosphorus loads by 46% from the 2003–2011 average or reducing dissolved reactive phosphorus loads by 78% from the 2005–2011 average. Reductions to these levels are also protective of fish habitat. We provide potential approaches for achieving those new loading targets, and suggest that recent load reduction recommendations focused on western basin cyanobacteria blooms may not be sufficient to reduce central basin hypoxia to 2000 km 2 .

Great Lakes;Lake Erie↗
USGS2014

2014 Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Forecast

The Gulf of Mexico annual summer hypoxia forecasts are based on average May total nitrogen loads from the Mississippi River basin for that year. The load estimate, recently released by USGS, is 4,761 metric tons per day. Based on that estimate, we predict the area of this summer’s hypoxic zone to be 14,000 square kilometers (95% credible interval, 8,000 to 20,000) – an “average year”. Our forecast hypoxic volume is 50 km 3 (95% credible interval, 20 to 77).

Gulf Of Mexico↗
USGS2013

A scenario and forecast model for Gulf of Mexico hypoxic area and volume

For almost three decades, the relative size of the hypoxic region on the Louisiana-Texas continental shelf has drawn scientific and policy attention. During that time, both simple and complex models have been used to explore hypoxia dynamics and to provide management guidance relating the size of the hypoxic zone to key drivers. Throughout much of that development, analyses had to accommodate an apparent change in hypoxic sensitivity to loads and often cull observations due to anomalous meteorological conditions. Here, we describe an adaptation of our earlier, simple biophysical model, calibrated to revised hypoxic area estimates and new hypoxic volume estimates through Bayesian estimation. This application eliminates the need to cull observations and provides revised hypoxic extent estimates with uncertainties, corresponding to different nutrient loading reduction scenarios. We compare guidance from this model application, suggesting an approximately 62% nutrient loading reduction is required to reduce Gulf hypoxia to the Action Plan goal of 5,000 km 2 , to that of previous applications. In addition, we describe for the first time, the corresponding response of hypoxic volume. We also analyze model results to test for increasing system sensitivity to hypoxia formation, but find no strong evidence of such change.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2013

2013 Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Forecast

The Gulf of Mexico annual summer hypoxia forecasts are based on average May total nitrogen loads from the Mississippi River basin for that year. The load estimate, recently released by USGS, is 7,316 metric tons per day. Based on that estimate, we predict the area of this summer’s hypoxic zone to be 18,900 square kilometers (95% credible interval, 13,400 to 24,200), the 7th largest reported and about the size of New Jersey. Our forecast hypoxic volume is 74.5 km 3 (95% credible interval, 51.5 to 97.0), also the 7th largest on record.

Report↗