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M.J. Conroy

Publications and source records attributed to M.J. Conroy.

52 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Procedures for the Analysis of Band-recovery Data and User Instructions for Program MULT

We briefly review methods for inference from band-recovery data and introduce a new, flexible procedure (MULT) for analysis of data from bird-banding studies. We compare our computing method to program SURIV and discuss the relative advanatages of each. We present several basic model structures that can be analyzed using program MULT and for each model structure describe estimation and hypothesis testing and give a data example. We provide a complete description of porgram MULT, which is IBM-PC compatible and may be run as either an interactive or a batch-mode program.

Resource Publication

Some considerations in modeling the mallard life cycle

We outline a population model proposed to accommodate the full life cycle of the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos}. Events during the breeding season are better understood than events at other times of the year, but recent findings suggest the importance of phenomena away from the breeding grounds. Several processes are discussed relative to mallard population dynamics. Compensatory mortality is a poorly understood concept, but one that can overwhelm many other components of a population model. Diseases and environmental contaminants can inflict indirect as well as direct mortality and can reduce reproduction. They interact with numerous other variables in complex and yet unknown ways. Recent evidence of a wintering-ground effect on subsequent recruitment provides one avenue for modeling phenomena occurring at different times of the year. Finally, the role of heterogeneity among individuals is widely acknowledged but not fully appreciated. We illustrate with an example the importance of heterogenicity to population processes, including compensatory mortality.

Book chapter

Sex specificity of behavioral dominance and fasting endurance in wintering canvasbacks: Experimental results

Hand-reared canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) of varying sex ratios were maintained in pens during winter 1980-81 (3M-3F, 6M-0F, 0M-6F) and winter 1981-82 (4M-2F, 2M-4F) and fed two diets (control and stress). They were observed during feeding trials to determine intrasexual and intersexual aggressive activity. There was little evidence that either diet or sex ratio affected the total number of aggressive encounters. Females fed both control and stress diets were more aggressive and spent more time in the small feeding areas than males in pens with 3M-3F, 4M-2F, and 2M-4F sex ratios. Stressed ducks tended to weigh less than controls throughout the study. Females in the 3M-3F and 4M-2F pens weighed less than those in the 0M-6F and 2M-4F pens, respectively. However, relative weight changes throughout the winter were similar for males and females. Thus, results of these experiments do not lead to conclusive rejection of either the behavioral dominance hypothesis or the fasting endurance hypothesis.

Book chapter

Some considerations in modeling the mallard life cycle

We outline a population model proposed to accommodate the full life cycle of the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos). Events during the breeding season are better understood than events at other times of the year, but recent findings suggest the importance of phenomena away from the breeding grounds. Several processes are discussed relative to mallard population dynamics. Compensatory mortality is a poorly understood concept, but one that can overwhelm many other components of a population model. Diseases and environmental contaminants can inflict indirect as well as direct mortality and can reduce reproduction. They interact with numerous other variables in complex and yet unknown ways. Recent evidence of a wintering-ground effect on subsequent recruitment provides one avenue for modeling phenomena occurring at different times of the year. Finally, the role of heterogeneity among individuals is widely acknowledged but not fully appreciated. We illustrate with an example the importance of heterogeneity to population processes, including compensatory mortality.

Book chapter

Winter movements of American black ducks in relation to natural and impounded wetlands in New Jersey

Radio telemetry was used to follow the movements and habitat use of female American Black ducks (Anas rubripes) trapped at Brigantine Division. Edwin B. Forsythe NWR (BNW) during three field seasons (1983-1896). Use of the BNWR impoundments was strongly associated with open vs. closed hunting seasons and with presence or absence of ice cover. Black ducks primarily used the impoundments for daytime roost sites and fed in saltmarsh areas at night during the hunting season. Following the hunting season use generally dispersed to saltmarsh and inland freshwater habitats. Freeze-up of the impoundments resulted in dispersal of black ducks to saltmarsh, inland freshwater, or areas to the south of New Jersey. We conclude that the BNWR impoundments only partially meet the habitat requirements of wintering black ducks. Access to saltmarsh habitats for feeding, and to inland freshwater habitats during periods of hard freeze, may be critical. The utility of the BNWR impoundments to black ducks, needs to be considered in conjunction with the availability of these other important habitats.

Book chapter

Survival estimates for North American Atlantic brant, 1956-75

The entire banding and recovery record for Atlantic brant (Branta bernicla hrota) was analyzed to determine recovery and survival rates for 1956-75. Composite survival rates for all adults (sex of banded birds was not recorded) during the 19-year period ranged from 0.984 to 0.591 (x = 0.785). Survival rates for Atlantic brant are relatively high among all geese but at the low end of the range for all brant. Detailed assessment of population structure and survival rates for each age and sex cohort are needed for this population.

Journal of Wildlife Management

The need for accuracy in modelling: An example

The need for accurate information in modelling depends on the objectives of the effort. but trustworthy data are essential for a model intended for use in the management of natural resources. This point is illustrated by referring to a recently published model of canvasback ducks. We demonstrate that several key assumptions are not supported by biological evidence, and that inferences drawn from the model could be dangerously misleading if they were used to guide the management of canvasback ducks.

Ecological Modelling

Maximum likelihood methods for investigating reporting rates of rings on hunter-shot birds

It is well known that hunters do not report 100% of the rings that they find on shot birds. Reward studies can be used to estimate what this reporting rate is, by comparison of recoveries of rings offering a monetary reward, to ordinary rings. A reward study of American Black Ducks (Anas rubripes) is used to illustrate the design, and to motivate the development of statistical models for estimation and for testing hypotheses of temporal and geographic variation in reporting rates. The method involves indexing the data (recoveries) and parameters (reporting, harvest, and solicitation rates) by geographic and temporal strata. Estimates are obtained under unconstrained (e.g., allowing temporal variability in reporting rates) and constrained (e.g., constant reporting rates) models, and hypotheses are tested by likelihood ratio. A FORTRAN program, available from the author, is used to perform the computations.

Book chapter

Observer visitation frequency and success of mourning dove nests: A field experiment

Field studies of nesting success generally require visits by the investigator to the nests under study. Such visits may themselves influence nesting success, however, and this possibility has been discussed and investigated by a number of workers with a variety of bird species. Livezey (1980) reviewed the relevant literature for duck nests and noted that most studies failed to demonstrate differences in nesting success between visited nests and those not visited. Livezey (1980) found in his own work that nest abandonment may have occurred as a result of disturbance by observers but that nest predation was not related to time spent by observers at nests or number of observers approaching nests. Various components of nesting and breeding success in seabirds are thought to be adversely affected by human disturbance and nest visitation (Gillett et al. 1975, Robert and Ralph 1975, Ollason and Dunnet 1980). Upland, ground-nesting species have also been studied (e.g. Stoddard 1931, Evans and Wolfe 1967, Henry 1969, Roseberry and Klimstra 1970, Klimstra and Roseberry 1975), and, although conclusions have varied, a number of these workers found no effect of observers on nest-predation rates.

The Auk

A general methodology for maximum likelihood inference from band-recovery data

A numerical procedure is described for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates and associated maximum likelihood inference from band- recovery data. The method is used to illustrate previously developed one-age-class band-recovery models, and is extended to new models, including the analysis with a covariate for survival rates and variable-time-period recovery models. Extensions to R-age-class band- recovery, mark-recapture models, and twice-yearly marking are discussed. A FORTRAN program provides computations for these models.

Biometrics

Geographic and temporal differences in band reporting rates for American black ducks

Recoveries of reward- and standard-banded American black ducks (Anas rubripes) were used to estimate band reporting rates and to investigate geographic and temporal variability in reporting rate for 1978-80. Reporting rates were higher close ( 20 km) to the parent banding site in 3 of 42 samples and were higher close to the nearest black duck banding site in 3 of 35 samples., Reporting rates were higher P 0.05) in Canada than in the Atlantic Flyway for the pre-huntIng season 1980-banded sample, but were otherwise similar among regions. Temporal differences over the duration of the study occurred, but there were no consistent trends over time. The small number of rejections suggests that there is little evidence of differences in band reporting rate by proximity to banding sites, geographic location, or over time. Thus, the best estimate of band reporting rate for black ducks is a constant 0.43. This estimate should be used with caution, because we believe that it overestimates reporting rate due to the unknown proportion of reward bands found that were not reported.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Additional comments on the assumption of homogeneous survival rates in modern bird banding estimation models

We examined the problem of heterogeneous survival and recovery rates in bird banding estimation models. We suggest that positively correlated subgroup survival and recovery probabilities may result from winter banding operations and that this situation will produce positively biased survival rate estimates. The magnitude of the survival estimate bias depends on the proportion of the population in each subgroup. Power of the suggested goodness-of-fit test to reject the inappropriate model for heterogeneous data sets was low for all situations examined and was poorest for positively related subgroup survival and recovery rates. Despite the magnitude of some of the biases reported and the relative inability to detect heterogeneity, we suggest that levels of heterogeneity normally encountered in real data sets will produce relatively small biases of average survival rates.

Journal of Wildlife Management