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M.J. Conroy

Publications and source records attributed to M.J. Conroy.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2003

Landscape change in the Southern Piedmont: Challenges, solutions and uncertainty across scales

The southern Piedmont of the southeastern United States epitomizes the complex and seemingly intractable problems and hard decisions that result from uncontrolled urban and suburban sprawl. Here we consider three recurrent themes in complicated problems involving complex systems: (1) scale dependencies and cross-scale, often nonlinear relationships; (2) resilience, in particular the potential for complex systems to move to alternate stable states with decreased ecological and/or economic value; and (3) uncertainty in the ability to understand and predict outcomes, perhaps particularly those that occur as a result of human impacts. We consider these issues in the context of landscape-level decision making, using as an example water resources and lotic systems in the Piedmont region of the southeastern United States. Copyright ?? 2003 by the author(s). Published here under licence by The Resilience Alliance.

Ecology and Society↗
USGS2002

Wood Thrush movements and habitat use: Effects of forest management for Red-cockaded Woodpeckers

We monitored adult and juvenile breeding-season movements and habitat use of radio-tagged Wood Thrushes ( Hylocichla mustelina ) at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge, central Georgia, USA. We investigated the effects that management for Red-cockaded Woodpeckers ( Picoides borealis ), thinning and burning >30 year old loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda ) habitat, had on Wood Thrushes, a ground-foraging and midstory-nesting species. Adult Wood Thrush pairs regularly moved long distances between nesting attempts (range 1 to 17,388 m). The only experimental effect we found on adult movements was a decrease in weekly emigration rates (Ψ) from thinned and burned compartments after silvicultural management. Adult males preferred riparian hardwoods with sparse to moderate cover and those preferences increased following management. Juveniles remained near their nest site ( x̄ = 177 m, SE = 113) for an average 24 days (SE = 6.3), and then dispersed a mean 2,189 m (SE = 342). Before dispersal, juveniles preferred upland hardwood–pine mixed habitat ( P < 0.05) with moderate overstory cover ( P < 0.05). We found no management effects on dispersal distances or predispersal habitat use. However, juveniles from thinned and burned compartments dispersed to hardwood habitats with dense cover, whereas birds from control compartments dispersed to pine-dominated habitats with sparse cover. All juveniles dispersed to areas with habitat similar to what they used before dispersal. Small-scale thinning and burning for Red-cockaded Woodpeckers may have had little effect on Wood Thrush habitat use and movements because typical movements were often larger than the scale (stand or compartment) targeted for management.

The Auk↗
USGS2002

Analysis and Management of Animal Populations: Modeling, Estimation and Decision Making

This book deals with the processes involved in making informed decisions about the management of animal populations. It covers the modeling of population responses to management actions, the estimation of quantities needed in the modeling effort, and the application of these estimates and models to the development of sound management decisions. The book synthesizes and integrates in a single volume the methods associated with these themes, as they apply to ecological assessment and conservation of animal populations. KEY FEATURES * Integrates population modeling, parameter estimation and * decision-theoretic approaches to management in a single, cohesive framework * Provides authoritative, state-of-the-art descriptions of quantitative * approaches to modeling, estimation and decision-making * Emphasizes the role of mathematical modeling in the conduct of science * and management * Utilizes a unifying biological context, consistent mathematical notation, * and numerous biological examples

Book↗
USGS2000

Effects of forest management on density, survival, and population growth of wood thrushes

Loss and alteration of breeding habitat have been proposed as causes of declines in several Neotropical migrant bird populations. We conducted a 4-year study to determine the effects of winter prescribed burning and forest thinning on breeding wood thrush ( Hylocichla mustelina ) populations at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge (PNWR) in Georgia. We estimated density, adult and juvenile survival rates, and apparent annual survival using transect surveys, radiotelemetry, and mist netting. Burning and thinning did not cause lower densities ( P = 0.25); wood thrush density ranged from 0.15 to 1.30 pairs/10 ha. No radiomarked male wood thrushes ( n = 68) died during the 4 years, but female ( n = 63) weekly survival was 0.981 ± 0.014 (SE) for females ( n = 63) and 0.976 ± 0.010 for juveniles ( n = 38). Apparent annual adult survival was 0.579 (SE = 0.173). Thinning and prescribed burning did not reduce adult or juvenile survival during the breeding season or apparent annual adult survival. Annual population growth (lambda) at PNWR was 1.00 (95% confidence interval = 0.32-1.63), and the considerable uncertainty in this prediction underscores the need for long term monitoring to effectively manage Neotropical migrants. Population growth increased on experimental compartments after the burn and thin (95% CI before = 0.91-0.97, after = 0.98-1.05), while control compartment declined (before = 0.98-1.05, after = 0.87-0.92). We found no evidence that the current management regime at PNWR, designed to improve red-cockaded woodpecker ( Picoides borealis ) habitat, negatively affected wood thrushes.

Georgia↗
USGS2000

Simultaneous use of mark-recapture and radiotelemetry to estimate survival, movement, and capture rates

Biologists often estimate separate survival and movement rates from radio-telemetry and mark-recapture data from the same study population. We describe a method for combining these data types in a single model to obtain joint, potentially less biased estimates of survival and movement that use all available data. We furnish an example using wood thrushes ( Hylocichla mustelina ) captured at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia in 1996. The model structure allows estimation of survival and capture probabilities, as well as estimation of movements away from and into the study area. In addition, the model structure provides many possibilities for hypothesis testing. Using the combined model structure, we estimated that wood thrush weekly survival was 0.989 ± 0.007 ( ± SE). Survival rates of banded and radio-marked individuals were not different ( α [ S radioed , S banded ] =log[ S radioed / S banded ]=0.0239 ± 0.0435). Fidelity rates (weekly probability of remaining in a stratum) did not differ between geographic strata ( Ψ = 0.911 ± 0.020; α [ Ψ 11 , Ψ 22 ]=0.0161 ± 0.047), and recapture rates ( p = 0.097 ± 0.016) banded and radio-marked individuals were not different ( α [ P radioed , P banded ]=0.145 ± 0.655). Combining these data types in a common model resulted in more precise estimates of movement and recapture rates than separate estimation, but ability to detect stratum or mark-specific differences in parameters was week. We conducted simulation trials to investigate the effects of varying study designs on parameter accuracy and statistical power to detect important differences. Parameter accuracy was high (relative bias [RBIAS] <2 %) and confidence interval coverage close to nominal, except for survival estimates of banded birds for the 'off study area' stratum, which were negatively biased (RBIAS -7 to -15%) when sample sizes were small (5-10 banded or radioed animals 'released' per time interval). To provide adequate data for useful inference from this model, study designs should seek a minimum of 25 animals of each marking type observed (marked or observed via telemetry) in each time period and geographic stratum.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS1999

A model to predict breeding-season productivity for multibrooded songbirds

Breeding-season productivity (the per capita number of offspring surviving to the end of the breeding season) is seldom estimated for multibrooded songbirds because of cost and logistical constraints. However, this parameter is critical for predictions of population growth rates and comparisons of seasonal productivity across geographic or temporal scales. We constructed a dynamic, stochastic, individual-based model of breeding-season productivity using demographic data from Wood Thrushes ( Hylocichla mustelina ) in central Georgia from 1993 to 1996. The model predicts breeding-season productivity as a function of adult survival, juvenile survival, nesting success, season length, renesting interval, and juvenile-care intervals. The model predicted that seasonal fecundity (number of fledglings produced) was 3.04, but only 2.04 juveniles per female survived to the end of the breeding season. Sensitivity analyses showed that differences in renesting interval, nesting success, fledglings per successful nest, and adult and juvenile survival caused variation in breeding-season productivity. Contrary to commonly held notions, season length and fledgling-care interval length did not cause variation in breeding-season productivity. This modeling exercise emphasizes the need for demographic data for songbird species, and we encourage biologists to use similar models to evaluate productivity in songbird populations.

The Auk↗
USGS1998

Effects of radio transmitters on migrating wood thrushes

We quantified the effects of radio transmitters on Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) using 4 yr of banding and telemetry data from Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge, Georgia. Flight performance models suggest that the 1.6-g transmitter shortens the migratory range of Wood Thrushes by only 60 km, and the estimated migratory range is adequate to accomplish migration even with limited fat stores. We used two strengths of line, 5- and 9-kg test-strength braided Dacron, to attach the transmitters using the thigh-harness method. We recaptured 13 returning radio-marked Wood Thrushes, seven of which were still marked. Six of the seven birds marked with the 5-kg test harnesses lost their transmitters within 1 yr while all six of the 9-kg test harnesses were still attached up to 21 mo later. Radio-marking did not reduce the return rates of adults and immatures, and the transmitters did not cause radio-marked birds to lose more mass than banded-only birds. Wood Thrushes can successfully carry a transmitter during migration with no detectable negative effects. We recommend continued use of the thigh-harness method, but we encourage the use of 5-kg cotton line.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗
USGS1996

Exposure of wild waterfowl to Mycoplasma anatis

We developed an ELISA procedure to assess the presence of M. Anatis-specific serum antibody in ducks. Sera from exposed and unexposed Pekin ducks (Anas platyrhynchos) were used to standardize tile ELISA and to establish reference ranges to classify ELISA results as exposed or not exposed. We conducted serological surveys of female waterfowl in the central and eastern United States between 1988 and 1992 to assess the frequency of exposure in wild waterfowl. Adult breeding mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), wintering mallards, and black ducks (Anas rubripes) had high prevalences of exposure to M. Anatis (25% to >80%). In comparison, none of the breeding adult canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) had serum antibody levels indicating exposure. Approximately 50% of the juvenile mallards and black ducks were exposed to M. Anatis by 8 months of age, indicating high transmission rates among wild birds.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗
USGS1995

Journal news

Statistical power (and conversely, Type II error) is often ignored by biologists. Power is important to consider in the design of studies, to ensure that sufficient resources are allocated to address a hypothesis under examination. Deter- mining appropriate sample size when designing experiments or calculating power for a statistical test requires an investigator to consider the importance of making incorrect conclusions about the experimental hypothesis and the biological importance of the alternative hypothesis (or the biological effect size researchers are attempting to measure). Poorly designed studies frequently provide results that are at best equivocal, and do little to advance science or assist in decision making. Completed studies that fail to reject Ho should consider power and the related probability of a Type II error in the interpretation of results, particularly when implicit or explicit acceptance of Ho is used to support a biological hypothesis or management decision. Investigators must consider the biological question they wish to answer (Tacha et al. 1982) and assess power on the basis of biologically significant differences (Taylor and Gerrodette 1993). Power calculations are somewhat subjective, because the author must specify either f or the minimum difference that is biologically important. Biologists may have different ideas about what values are appropriate. While determining biological significance is of central importance in power analysis, it is also an issue of importance in wildlife science. Procedures, references, and computer software to compute power are accessible; therefore, authors should consider power. We welcome comments or suggestions on this subject.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS1990

Flexible models for analysing ring recovery data to estimate survival rates

We describe MULT, a flexible procedure for analysing ring recovery data. The procedure starts with parametric structures similar to, but more general than, those described by Brownie et al. (1985). Particular models, including those in Brownie et al. (1965), can be obtained by imposing constraints on the general parametric structures. Examples of models that are available in MULT include: analysis of ringing data when no birds are ringed in some years; analysis of twice-yearly ringing to estimate interval survivorship; and analysis of ringing data when survivorship is hypothesised to be a function of a covariate measured annually. We use North American ringings of Atlantic Brant (Branta bernicla hrota), Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), and Ring-necked Ducks (Aythya collaris) to illustrate the above models. MULT is a menu-driven, IBM-PC compatible program, and is available from the second author.

Ring↗