Geology topics

Leon J. Kauffman

Publications and source records attributed to Leon J. Kauffman.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Simulated effects of projected 2014–40 withdrawals on groundwater flow and water levels in the New Jersey Coastal Plain

Abstract Groundwater flow between 2014 through 2040 was simulated in the New Jersey Coastal Plain based on three withdrawal scenarios. Two of the scenarios were based on projected population trends and the assumption of water conservation; the nominal water-loss scenario projected a status quo in the efficiency of water loss in the delivery systems whereas the optimal water-loss scenario projected a better water-loss efficiency resulting in less withdrawals. The third scenario assumes that all wells will withdraw water at their full allocation level which is generally much more than reported withdrawals in 2013 or projected under the other two scenarios. Maps and summaries of heads and drawdowns are presented for nine confined aquifers. All the aquifers have areas with heads below sea level by 2040. Of the three scenarios, the drawdowns are most extreme in the full allocation scenarios; there are large areas of head decline greater than 20 feet in 5 of the 9 confined aquifers. The exceptions are the Vincentown aquifer, despite some areas of large drawdown in the vicinity of wells, and the three Potomac-Raritan-Magothy (PRM) aquifers where withdrawals are regulated by Critical Area restrictions. The nominal and optimal water-loss scenarios have some areas of head declines; most are less than 15 feet. The simulation of these scenarios shows some extensive areas of head recovery as well—especially in the aquifers that are regulated by the Critical Area restrictions. Budgets of inflow and outflow components were calculated for 44 hydrologic budget areas (HBAs). The budget analysis shows that the water movement is complex and varies based on the aquifer geometry and location of pumping wells. Flow components between the unconfined and confined parts of the system were summarized by HUC11 (hydrologic unit code 11) basins.

New Jersey↗

USGS2024

Design and calibration of a nitrate decision support tool for groundwater wells in Wisconsin, USA

This paper describes development of a nitrate decision support tool for groundwater wells (GW-NDST) that combines nitrate leaching and groundwater lag-times to compute well concentrations. The GW-NDST uses output from support models that simulate leached nitrate, groundwater age distributions, and nitrate reduction rates. The support models are linked through convolution to simulate nitrate transport to wells. Spatially distributed parameters were adjusted through calibration to 34,255 nitrate sample targets. Prediction uncertainty is illustrated via Monte Carlo realizations informed during calibration. Over 78% of target concentrations were within the simulated range of results from 450 realizations. An example forecasting scenario illustrates that a range of feasible outcomes exist and should be considered when interpreting forecasts for decision making. Uncertainty in forecasting is unavoidable; the intent of characterizing uncertainty in the GW-NDST is to facilitate decision making by increasing insight into the response of nitrate contamination to physical and chemical processes.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

Groundwater residence times in glacial aquifers—A new general simulation-model approach compared to conventional inset models

Groundwater is important as a drinking-water source and for maintaining base flow in rivers, streams, and lakes. Groundwater quality can be predicted, in part, by its residence time in the subsurface, but the residence-time distribution cannot be measured directly and must be inferred from models. This report compares residence-time distributions from four areas where groundwater flow and travel time were simulated with conventional simulation-inset models (IMs) and with a new automated model-construction method called general simulation models (GSMs). The comparison provides an opportunity to explore controls on travel time and improve the methods used in the creation of GSMs. These models can be useful for three main-use cases: (1) rapid testing of relationships that govern groundwater flow and age, (2) generation of consistent examples for training a machine-learning metamodel, and (3) serving as a starting point for more detailed models. Comparison of the GSMs to IMs indicated a qualified pattern of agreement for residence-time distributions as indicated by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and Spearman’s correlation coefficient. The agreement was best for the median values of the simulated residence times in young fractions of groundwater (defined as the fractions of groundwater in samples less than 65 years old) at the scale of the eight-digit hydrologic-unit code. Generally, the median values of the young fractions in the IMs were correlated with the median values from the GSMs. The relative trends across the four areas also were similar for the other residence-time metrics. The medians of residence-time metrics at finer scales show a fair degree of scatter. The GSM results compared most poorly for median travel times in the older fraction of groundwater (older than 65 years). The GSM approach is intended as a flexible framework for developing models that can be useful individually as screening tools or collectively to support projects in statistical learning. Although one set of GSM algorithms was presented here, the approach can accommodate many types of data and also different categories of prior information. Comparison of GSMs and IMs suggests ways in which the GSMs, while remaining easy to construct and calibrate, can be improved for estimating groundwater travel times. IMs do not yield exact travel times, and matching GSMs to IMs does not guarantee an improvement; however, IMs provide a convenient benchmark against which to explore relations between physical characteristics of watersheds and the distribution of travel times within them. This effort was undertaken as part of the National Water Quality Program of the U.S. Geological Survey to assist in determining the susceptibility of groundwater in glacial aquifers to a variety of natural and anthropogenic contaminants.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2022

Populations using public-supply groundwater in the conterminous U.S. 2010; Identifying the wells, hydrogeologic regions, and hydrogeologic mapping units

Most Americans receive their drinking water from publicly supplied sources, a large portion of it from groundwater. Mapping these populations consistently and at a high resolution is important for understanding where the resource is used and needs to be protected. The results show that 269 million people are supplied by public supply, 107 million are supplied by groundwater and 162 million are supplied by surface water. The population using public supply drinking water was mapped in two ways: the census enhanced method (CEM) evenly distributes the population across populated census blocks, and the urban land-use enhanced method (ULUEM) distributes the population only to certain urban land use designations. In addition, a two-dimensional polygon dataset was created for the conterminous U.S. that identifies 177 unique Hydrogeologic Mapping Units (HMUs) with similar hydrogeologic characteristics. The HMUs do not overlap, but they can delineate areas where stacked hydrogeologic regions (HRs) contribute drinking water from below the surface. HRs are waterbearing geologic regions identified as either a principal aquifers (PA) or secondary hydrogeologic regions (SHR). Within each HMU, the wells were used to determine the proportion of each HR that is providing groundwater to the HMU. In 63% of the HMUs, a single HR is providing water to the public supply wells located within it, while the rest of the HMUs show that the wells are tapping up to a maximum of four stacked HRs. In total, groundwater from 108 HRs provide drinking water for public supply, six of which provide more than 50% of the groundwater used for public supply drinking water. The aquifer serving the largest number of equivalent people (>17 million) is the glacial aquifer. The HR providing the greatest number of people per km 2 is the Biscayne aquifer in Florida at nearly 453 people per km 2 .

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2021

Depth of groundwater used for drinking-water supplies in the United States

Groundwater supplies 35 percent of drinking water in the United States. Mapping the quantity and quality of groundwater at the depths used for potable supplies requires an understanding of locational variation in the characteristics of drinking-water wells (depth and open interval). Typical depths of domestic- and public-drinking-water supply wells vary by and within aquifer across the United States. The depths to the top and bottom of the zones from which drinking water is withdrawn are important predictor variables in regional- and national-scale statistical water models, but spatially extensive maps of the depths to drinking-water-supply sources are not consistently available in modeled regions. Therefore, it was necessary to generate a set of grids representing surfaces of the approximate common depth and length of open intervals in the wells from which water is withdrawn for domestic- and public-drinking-water supply (withdrawal zones) within the conterminous United States. Well data (about 7.6 million records) were compiled from several sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Information System (600,922 records), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Safe Drinking Water Information System dataset (66,540 records, primarily public-supply wells), a groundwater ambient monitoring dataset (31,448 records, primarily domestic-supply wells), individual State data (6,096,503 records), a national brackish aquifer study (96,885 records), and a glacial aquifer study (729,564 records). Fifty-seven principal aquifers and 65 secondary hydrogeologic regions have been designated in the conterminous United States. The principal aquifers and secondary hydrogeologic regions vary in depth, thickness, lithology, and transmissivity characteristics. Some principal aquifers underlie secondary hydrogeologic regions, and may in turn be overlain by glacial sediment or basin and valley fill aquifers, which may also be used as drinking-water sources. The principal aquifer and secondary hydrogeologic region polygons were merged with overlying sediment polygons, where present, including glacial sediment, coarse glacial sediment, and stream valley alluvium (alluvium) polygons, to generate unique hydrogeologic settings across the conterminous United States. A total of 288 distinct hydrogeologic settings resulted from the merging of principal aquifer, secondary hydrogeologic region, glacial sediment, coarse glacial sediment, and alluvium polygons. Each well was assigned to a hydrogeologic setting on the basis of location. Hydrogeologic setting well groupings were used to guide calculations of the median value for well depth and depth to and length of open intervals across the hydrogeologic setting. Where well data were sparse or missing, wells from hydrogeologic settings with similar well construction properties, geology, physiography, and topography were grouped and used to calculate the moving median depth (if less than five wells in a 100-kilometer [62.1-mile] radius) and to estimate open interval length (if not available within hydrogeologic setting). Grids were generated to represent what might be considered as the “typical” or “median” domestic- and public-supply well in an area. The well properties are defined with moving median grids of top depth, bottom depth, and length of open interval at a 1-square-kilometer (0.38-square-mile) grid cell scale. Median depths and open intervals of domestic- and public-supply wells varied by lithology of the hydrogeologic setting and overlying sediment. Overall, the median depths were 142 feet (43.3 meters) for all domestic-supply wells and 202 feet (61.6 meters) for all public-supply wells. The median open intervals were 21 feet (6.4 meters) for domestic-supply wells and 49 feet (14.9 meters) for public-supply wells. The shallowest median bottom open interval depths for domestic-supply wells were in the secondary hydrogeologic regions with coarse glacial sediment, which suggests that the wells are most commonly completed in the permeable coarse glacial sediment and not in the underlying secondary hydrogeologic region. Public-supply wells were completed at relatively shallow median depths when drilled in permeable sediment that overlie secondary hydrogeologic regions. When public-supply wells were completed in principal aquifers, the median depths were typically greater than wells completed in secondary hydrogeologic regions. Well data used in this study were limited to those available from national or State digital databases. Several quality-assurance checks were performed during data compilation, but a comprehensive quality assurance inspection for each of the data sources was outside the scope of this study. Grids defining typical open intervals in domestic- and public-supply wells are presented. Although there are many places where multiple aquifers are stacked, these results correspond primarily to the aquifer with the highest documented number of wells for each use.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2021

Three-dimensional distribution of residence time metrics in the glaciated United States using metamodels trained on general numerical models

Residence time distribution (RTD) is a critically important characteristic of groundwater flow systems; however, it cannot be measured directly. RTD can be inferred from tracer data with analytical models (few parameters) or with numerical models (many parameters). The second approach permits more variation in system properties but is used less frequently than the first because large‐scale numerical models can be resource intensive. Using a novel automated approach, a set of 115 inexpensive general simulation models (GSMs) was used to create RTD metrics (fraction of young groundwater, defined as < 65 years old; mean travel time of young fraction; median travel time of old fraction; and mean path length). GSMs captured the general trends in measured tritium concentrations in 431 wells. Boosted Regression Tree metamodels were trained to predict these RTD metrics using available wall‐to‐wall hydrogeographic digital sets as explanatory features. The metamodels produced a three‐dimensional distribution of predictions throughout the glacial system that generally matched with the numerical model RTD metrics. In addition to the expected importance of aquifer thickness and recharge rate in predicting RTD metrics, two new data sets, Multi‐Order Hydrologic Position (MOHP) and hydrogeologic terrane were important predictors. These variables by themselves produced metamodels with Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency close to the full metamodel. Metamodel predictions showed that the volume of young groundwater stored in the glaciated U.S. is about 6,000 km 3 , or about 0.5% of globally stored young groundwater.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2020

Machine learning predictions of pH in the Glacial Aquifer System, Northern USA

A boosted regression tree model was developed to predict pH conditions in three dimensions throughout the glacial aquifer system of the contiguous United States using pH measurements in samples from 18,386 wells and predictor variables that represent aspects of the hydrogeologic setting. Model results indicate that the carbonate content of soils and aquifer materials strongly controls pH and, when coupled with long flowpaths, results in the most alkaline conditions. Conversely, in areas where glacial sediments are thin and carbonate‐poor, pH conditions remain acidic. At depths typical of drinking‐water supplies, predicted pH >7.5—which is associated with arsenic mobilization—occurs more frequently than predicted pH <6—which is associated with water corrosivity and the mobilization of other trace elements. A novel aspect of this model was the inclusion of numerically based estimates of groundwater flow characteristics (age and flowpath length) as predictor variables. The sensitivity of pH predictions to these variables was consistent with hydrologic understanding of groundwater flow systems and the geochemical evolution of groundwater quality. The model was not developed to provide precise estimates of pH at any given location. Rather, it can be used to more generally identify areas where contaminants may be mobilized into groundwater and where corrosivity issues may be of concern to prioritize areas for future groundwater monitoring.

Groundwater↗

USGS2019

Drinking water quality in the glacial aquifer system, northern USA

Groundwater supplies 50% of drinking water worldwide, but compromised water quality from anthropogenic and geogenic contaminants can limit usage of groundwater as a drinking water source. Groundwater quality in the glacial aquifer system, USA (GLAC), is presented in the context of a hydrogeologic framework that divides the study area into 17 hydrogeologic terranes. Results are reported at aquifer-system scale and regional (terrane) scale. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of groundwater quality in the GLAC using data from numerous sources for samples collected 2005–2013, compared to health-based and aesthetic (non-health) benchmarks, and evaluated with areal and population metrics. Concentrations above a benchmark are considered high. Trace elements are widespread across the study area, with an estimated 5.7 million people relying on groundwater with high concentrations of one or more trace elements; manganese and arsenic are most often at high concentration. Nitrate is found at high concentration in 4.0% of the study area, serving about 740 thousand people. Organic compounds including pesticides and volatile organic compounds are high in 2.0% of the assessed study area, with about 870 thousand people relying on groundwater with high concentrations of an organic compound. High arsenic and manganese concentrations occur primarily in the terranes with thick, stratigraphically complex, fine-grained glacial sediment, coincident with groundwater under reducing conditions (indicated by iron concentrations >100 μg/L); high nitrate is uncommon in those same terranes. When nitrate is high in thick, fine-grained, complex terranes, though, it is much more commonly associated with groundwater under more oxidizing conditions. Common geogenic trace elements occur at high concentration due to characteristic geologic and geochemical conditions. Conversely, anthropogenic nitrate and organic compounds are introduced at or near the land surface. High concentrations of nitrate or organic compounds are generally limited to areas in proximity where people live and use the chemicals.

Science of Total Environment↗

USGS2018

Hydrogeologic framework for characterization and occurrence of confined and unconfined aquifers in quaternary sediments in the glaciated conterminous United States—A digital map compilation and database

The U.S. Geological Survey has created a hydrogeologic framework for Quaternary sediments in glaciated areas of the conterminous United States that categorizes, maps, and characterizes the glacial sediments at and beneath the land surface. The hydrogeologic framework divides the glaciated United States into 17 distinct hydrogeologic terranes using a geologic approach based on previous mapping, and was characterized using the Glacial Environments and Surficial Sediments geodatabase compiled from the Quaternary Atlas of the United States map series, the Surficial Materials Map of the United States, and several Integrated Geologic Map Databases for the United States; a groundwater use database compiled from public-supply, water-well data; and a lithologic database compiled from State-managed well records and geologic logs. This framework is to be used to assess the occurrence and characteristics of confined and unconfined glacial aquifers, their distribution and extent, and their potential intrinsic susceptibility and vulnerability.

Data Series↗

USGS2018

Characterization and occurrence of confined and unconfined aquifers in Quaternary sediments in the glaciated conterminous United States

The glacial aquifer system, which is a collection of aquifers within Quaternary sediments in the glaciated conterminous United States, is a principal aquifer that supplies groundwater that serves about 42 million people and accounts for about 5 percent of the Nation’s drinking water. This aquifer system (the area of maximum glacial advance) underlies parts of 25 States and covers 1.87×10 6 square kilometers. A hydrogeologic framework is presented that divides the glaciated United States into 17 distinct hydrogeologic terranes using a geologic approach based on previous mapping. Each hydrogeologic terrane contains Quaternary sediment that is derived from a common depositional history and can be characterized by similar texture and thickness. Characteristics of Quaternary sediments are described using attributes computed from a lithologic database of well logs compiled from 24 States (excluding Kentucky). The hydrogeologic framework presents a nationwide picture of the glacial aquifer system and provides generalizations concerning the nature of aquifers within it (for example, whether the aquifers are shallow or deep, and unconfined or confined). In this way insights can be gained from understanding the similarities and differences in distinct parts of the glacial aquifer system and how they relate to water use and quality and to aquifer vulnerability. Delineation of hydrogeologic terranes was based on an interpretation of existing geologic mapping of Quaternary sediments and the thickness of unconsolidated material. Overall thickness of Quaternary sediment was used to qualitatively rank the generalized complexity of the hydrogeologic framework in each terrane: “lower” complexity (assigned a terrane code 1), “moderate” complexity (terrane code 2), and “higher” complexity (terrane code 3). Letter designations appended to the terrane codes (for example, 1A, 1B, or 1C) differentiate terranes of similar complexity. Two unique areas, where thick, stratified, coarse-grained sediment dominates, were assigned terrane code 4. Elements of this hydrogeologic framework include a glacial environments and surficial sediments geodatabase, which includes lithologic, geomorphic, and stratigraphic characterization of Quaternary sediments based on previous mapping; a gridded database of sediment and aquifer characteristics computed from lithologic logs obtained from water-well driller records; a water-use database with information on public-water supply systems and sources of groundwater; and estimated recharge computed from a geologically based soil-water balance model. A generalized map of the bedrock geology based on previous State-level mapping is included as well. Quaternary sediment in the glaciated United States includes glacial, postglacial (Holocene) and nonglacial sediments. At land surface, 60 percent of the glacial sediment is till. Large areas of outwash and ice contact sediments are extensive throughout the Midwest but generally are confined to valleys in the Northeast and the Northwest. Lacustrine sediments were deposited in proglacial lakes adjacent to the present Great Lakes and in glacial Lake Agassiz in the eastern Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota. The median thickness of Quaternary sediment ranges from 6 to 45 meters across the 17 hydrogeologic terranes, but the maximum thickness is more than 500 meters in some areas. Quaternary sediments generally contain less than 10 percent coarse material; the median range is near zero percent under till to about 50 percent under ice contact and outwash sediments. About 80 percent of the coarse material lies within 25 to 40 meters of land surface. In most of the glaciated United States, there is a small likelihood of penetrating an aquifer-material interval containing coarse material at least 3 meters thick. A single aquifer-material interval was recorded in about 44 percent of lithologic logs, whereas about 11 percent of the logs penetrated multiple intervals. About 44 percent of water wells in the lithologic database are completed in Quaternary sediment, and many of these Quaternary water wells (42 percent) are confined by at least 7.5 meters of fine materials. About 33 percent of these Quaternary water wells are unconfined—the remainder are where only thin layers (less than 3 meters) of coarse material are present. The median depths of Quaternary water wells range from 13 to 40 meters among the 17 hydrogeologic terranes. Recharge ranges from more than 400 millimeters per year in the Northeast to 11 millimeters or less per year in the Dakotas and Montana (median value of 136 millimeters per year). Annual groundwater withdrawals compiled by county range on an areal basis from less than 1 to 370 millimeters per year, and the mean is 7.4 millimeters per year. About 36 percent of the withdrawals are for public-water supply, of which 70 percent are derived from Quaternary sediments. Groundwater withdrawals are less than 10 percent of recharge throughout most of the glaciated conterminous United States but are a larger proportion of recharge near urban areas in the Northeast and the Midwest, and in counties throughout drier parts of the Midwest. The salient characteristics of the 17 hydrogeologic terranes are presented through maps and a set of descriptive plots to facilitate visual comparisons between selected sediment and aquifer characteristics. The thickness of Quaternary sediment generally increases from the lower complexity terranes through the higher complexity terranes, consistent with their delineation. Median proportions of coarse material in Quaternary sediment and depths to aquifer-material intervals are highly variable (less than 10 to 50 percent, and 0 to 30 meters, respectively). Median thicknesses of aquifer-material intervals generally fall within a narrow range (10 to 20 meters), except in two terranes that contain thick coarse-grained sediment (30 to 35 meters). The source of water in wells varies from mostly bedrock wells in the lower complexity terranes to mostly Quaternary wells in the higher complexity terranes where the sediment is thickest. A tree diagram compiled from a hierarchical cluster analysis of a matrix composed of metrics based on sediment and aquifer characteristics, and the distribution of water wells in each terrane, indicates some groups of terranes that can be treated as comparable when analyzing groundwater flow and quality. Aquifer-material intervals indicated on maps prepared from the lithologic logs, including unconfined and confined conditions, correlate well with aquifer systems delineated on state maps for Illinois, Indiana, and North Dakota. The large scale of the study limits the resolution at which the maps can be interpreted, however, and alluvial units are not mapped correctly for some valleys in the Northeast and the Northwest. Lithologic logs used in the study are biased toward shallow depths because not all logs penetrate the entire thickness of Quaternary sediment, but this bias should not limit the utility of the sediment and aquifer descriptions because shallow depths are commonly exploited for water supply. The hydrogeologic framework will support ongoing studies of groundwater flow and quality in the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment program for the glaciated United States.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2018

Metamodeling for groundwater age forecasting in the Lake Michigan Basin

Groundwater age is an important indicator of groundwater susceptibility to anthropogenic contamination and a key input to statistical models for forecasting water quality. Numerical models can provide estimates of groundwater age, enabling interpretation of measured age tracers. However, to extend to national‐scale groundwater systems where numerical models are not routinely available, a more efficient metamodeling approach can provide a less precise but widely applicable estimate of groundwater age, trained to make forecasts based on predictor variables that can be measured independent of numerical models. We trained gradient‐boosted regression tree statistical metamodels to MODFLOW/MODPATH‐derived groundwater age estimates in five inset models in the Lake Michigan Basin, USA. Using high‐throughput computing, we explored an exhaustive range of tuning parameters and tested metamodels through cross validation, a 20% holdout, and a round robin approach among the five inset models withholding each inset model from training and testing on the held‐out inset model. Forecast skill—measured by Nash Sutcliffe efficiency—was high for age‐related responses in the 20% hold‐out case (ranging from 0.73 to 0.84). The round robin analysis provided the opportunity to explore extending to unmodeled areas and a greater range of skill indicated the need to evaluate when it is appropriate to apply a metamodel from one region to another. We further explored the ramifications of metamodel simplification achieved through removing predictor variables based on their estimated importance. We found that similar metamodel performance was achievable with a fraction of the candidate set of predictor variables with well construction variables being most important.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2018

Extraction and development of inset models in support of groundwater age calculations for glacial aquifers

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a regional model of Lake Michigan Basin (LMB). This report describes the construction of five MODFLOW inset models extracted from the LMB regional model and their application using the particle-tracking code MODPATH to simulate the groundwater age distribution of discharge to wells pumping from glacial deposits. The five study areas of the inset model correspond to 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) basins. Two of the basins are tributary to Lake Michigan from the east, two are tributary to the lake from the west, and one is just west of the western boundary of the Lake Michigan topographic basin. The inset models inherited many of the inputs to the parent LMB model, including the hydrostratigraphy and layering scheme, the hydraulic conductivity assigned to bedrock layers, recharge distribution, and water use in the form of pumping rates from glacial and bedrock wells. The construction of the inset models entailed modifying some inputs, most notably the grid spacing (reduced from cells 5,000 feet on a side in the parent LMB model to 500 feet on a side in the inset models). The refined grid spacing allowed for more precise location of pumped wells and more detailed simulation of groundwater/surface-water interactions. The glacial hydraulic conductivity values, the top bedrock surface elevation, and the surface-water network input to the inset models also were modified. The inset models are solved using the MODFLOW–NWT code, which allows for more robust handling of conditions in unconfined aquifers than previous versions of MODFLOW. Comparison of the MODFLOW inset models reveals that they incorporate a range of hydrogeologic conditions relative to the glacial part of the flow system, demonstrated by visualization and analysis of model inputs and outputs and reflected in the range of ages generated by MODPATH for existing and hypothetical glacial wells. Certain inputs and outputs are judged to be candidate predictors that, if treated statistically, may be capable of explaining much of the variance in the simulated age metrics. One example of a predictor that model results indicate strongly affects simulated age is the depth of the well open interval below the simulated water table. The strength of this example variable as an overall predictor of groundwater age and its relation to other predictors can be statistically tested through the metamodeling process. In this way the inset models are designed to serve as a training area for metamodels that estimate groundwater age in glacial wells, which in turn will contribute to ongoing studies, under the direction of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment, of contaminant susceptibility of shallow groundwater across the glacial aquifer system.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2016

A partial exponential lumped parameter model to evaluate groundwater age distributions and nitrate trends in long-screened wells

A partial exponential lumped parameter model (PEM) was derived to determine age distributions and nitrate trends in long-screened production wells. The PEM can simulate age distributions for wells screened over any finite interval of an aquifer that has an exponential distribution of age with depth. The PEM has 3 parameters – the ratio of saturated thickness to the top and bottom of the screen and mean age, but these can be reduced to 1 parameter (mean age) by using well construction information and estimates of the saturated thickness. The PEM was tested with data from 30 production wells in a heterogeneous alluvial fan aquifer in California, USA. Well construction data were used to guide parameterization of a PEM for each well and mean age was calibrated to measured environmental tracer data ( 3 H, 3 He, CFC-113, and 14 C). Results were compared to age distributions generated for individual wells using advective particle tracking models (PTMs). Age distributions from PTMs were more complex than PEM distributions, but PEMs provided better fits to tracer data, partly because the PTMs did not simulate 14 C accurately in wells that captured varying amounts of old groundwater recharged at lower rates prior to groundwater development and irrigation. Nitrate trends were simulated independently of the calibration process and the PEM provided good fits for at least 11 of 24 wells. This work shows that the PEM, and lumped parameter models (LPMs) in general, can often identify critical features of the age distributions in wells that are needed to explain observed tracer data and nonpoint source contaminant trends, even in systems where aquifer heterogeneity and water-use complicate distributions of age. While accurate PTMs are preferable for understanding and predicting aquifer-scale responses to water use and contaminant transport, LPMs can be sensitive to local conditions near individual wells that may be inaccurately represented or missing in an aquifer-scale flow model.

California↗

USGS2014

Modeling long-term trends of chlorinated ethene contamination at a public supply well

A mass-balance solute-transport modeling approach was used to investigate the effects of dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) volume, composition, and generation of daughter products on simulated and measured long-term trends of chlorinated ethene (CE) concentrations at a public supply well. The model was built by telescoping a calibrated regional three-dimensional MODFLOW model to the capture zone of a public supply well that has a history of CE contamination. The local model was then used to simulate the interactions between naturally occurring organic carbon that acts as an electron donor, and dissolved oxygen (DO), CEs, ferric iron, and sulfate that act as electron acceptors using the Sequential Electron Acceptor Model in three dimensions (SEAM3D) code. The modeling results indicate that asymmetry between rapidly rising and more gradual falling concentration trends over time suggests a DNAPL rather than a dissolved source of CEs. Peak concentrations of CEs are proportional to the volume and composition of the DNAPL source. The persistence of contamination, which can vary from a few years to centuries, is proportional to DNAPL volume, but is unaffected by DNAPL composition. These results show that monitoring CE concentrations in raw water produced by impacted public supply wells over time can provide useful information concerning the nature of contaminant sources and the likely future persistence of contamination.

New Jersey↗

USGS2013

Modeling the effects of naturally occurring organic carbon on chlorinated ethene transport to a public supply well

The vulnerability of public supply wells to chlorinated ethene (CE) contamination in part depends on the availability of naturally occurring organic carbon to consume dissolved oxygen (DO) and initiate reductive dechlorination. This was quantified by building a mass balance model of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer, which is widely used for public water supply in New Jersey. This model was built by telescoping a calibrated regional three-dimensional (3D) MODFLOW model to the approximate capture zone of a single public supply well that has a history of CE contamination. This local model was then used to compute a mass balance between dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC), and adsorbed organic carbon (AOC) that act as electron donors and DO, CEs, ferric iron, and sulfate that act as electron acceptors (EAs) using the Sequential Electron Acceptor Model in three dimensions (SEAM3D) code. SEAM3D was constrained by varying concentrations of DO and DOC entering the aquifer via recharge, varying the bioavailable fraction of POC in aquifer sediments, and comparing observed and simulated vertical concentration profiles of DO and DOC. This procedure suggests that approximately 15% of the POC present in aquifer materials is readily bioavailable. Model simulations indicate that transport of perchloroethene (PCE) and its daughter products trichloroethene (TCE), cis -dichloroethene ( cis -DCE), and vinyl chloride (VC) to the public supply well is highly sensitive to the assumed bioavailable fraction of POC, concentrations of DO entering the aquifer with recharge, and the position of simulated PCE source areas in the flow field. The results are less sensitive to assumed concentrations of DOC in aquifer recharge. The mass balance approach used in this study also indicates that hydrodynamic processes such as advective mixing, dispersion, and sorption account for a significant amount of the observed natural attenuation in this system.

New Jersey↗

USGS2013

Comparison of age distributions estimated from environmental tracers by using binary-dilution and numerical models of fractured and folded karst: Shenandoah Valley of Virginia and West Virginia, USA

Measured concentrations of environmental tracers in spring discharge from a karst aquifer in the Shenandoah Valley, USA, were used to refine a numerical groundwater flow model. The karst aquifer is folded and faulted carbonate bedrock dominated by diffuse flow along fractures. The numerical model represented bedrock structure and discrete features (fault zones and springs). Concentrations of 3 H, 3 He, 4 He, and CFC-113 in spring discharge were interpreted as binary dilutions of young (0–8 years) water and old (tracer-free) water. Simulated mixtures of groundwater are derived from young water flowing along shallow paths, with the addition of old water flowing along deeper paths through the model domain that discharge to springs along fault zones. The simulated median age of young water discharged from springs (5.7 years) is slightly older than the median age estimated from 3 H/ 3 He data (4.4 years). The numerical model predicted a fraction of old water in spring discharge (0.07) that was half that determined by the binary-dilution model using the 3 H/ 3 He apparent age and 3 H and CFC-113 data (0.14). This difference suggests that faults and lineaments are more numerous or extensive than those mapped and included in the numerical model.

Virginia;West Virginia↗

USGS2012

On modeling weak sinks in MODPATH

Regional groundwater flow systems often contain both strong sinks and weak sinks. A strong sink extracts water from the entire aquifer depth, while a weak sink lets some water pass underneath or over the actual sink. The numerical groundwater flow model MODFLOW may allow a sink cell to act as a strong or weak sink, hence extracting all water that enters the cell or allowing some of that water to pass. A physical strong sink can be modeled by either a strong sink cell or a weak sink cell, with the latter generally occurring in low resolution models. Likewise, a physical weak sink may also be represented by either type of sink cell. The representation of weak sinks in the particle tracing code MODPATH is more equivocal than in MODFLOW. With the appropriate parameterization of MODPATH, particle traces and their associated travel times to weak sink streams can be modeled with adequate accuracy, even in single layer models. Weak sink well cells, on the other hand, require special measures as proposed in the literature to generate correct particle traces and individual travel times and hence capture zones. We found that the transit time distributions for well water generally do not require special measures provided aquifer properties are locally homogeneous and the well draws water from the entire aquifer depth, an important observation for determining the response of a well to non-point contaminant inputs.

Ground Water↗

USGS2011

Simulations of groundwater flow and particle-tracking analysis in the zone of contribution to a public-supply well in San Antonio, Texas

In 2006, a public-supply well in San Antonio, Texas, was selected for intensive study to assess the vulnerability of public-supply wells in the Edwards aquifer to contamination by a variety of compounds. A local-scale, steady-state, three-dimensional numerical groundwater-flow model was developed and used in this study to evaluate the movement of water and solutes from recharge areas to the selected public-supply well. Particle tracking was used to compute flow paths and advective traveltimes throughout the model area and to delineate the areas contributing recharge and zone of contribution for the selected public-supply well. The local-scale model grid has a finer vertical discretization than do previous regional Edwards aquifer models and incorporates refined parameter zones corresponding with multiple (10) hydrogeologic units representing the Edwards aquifer. In the Edwards aquifer, high matrix porosity and permeability likely are overshadowed by high permeability developed in structurally influenced karstic conduit systems that transmit water into, through, and out of the aquifer system. The complexity of the aquifer system in the local-scale study area is further increased by numerous faults with varying vertical displacements. The extensive faulting results in the juxtaposition of hydrogeologic units with differing hydraulic properties and has appreciable effects on groundwater flow in the Edwards aquifer. The local-scale model simulations use the MODFLOW Hydrogeologic-Unit Flow Package and include two hydrogeologic units with high hydraulic conductivities (one or more orders of magnitude higher than for the other simulated hydrogeologic units) that are intended to simulate fast flow paths attributable to karst features. The two “conduit” hydrogeologic units of the Edwards aquifer represent the lower 8 meters of the leached and collapsed members and the Kirschberg evaporite member of the Edwards Group. The MODFLOW Horizontal-Flow Barrier Package was used to simulate faults in the local-scale model. The assumption was made that the degree to which a fault acts as a barrier to groundwater flow is proportional to the fault displacement. The final calibrated hydraulic-conductance values ranged from 0.01 to 0.2 per day for fault displacements ranging from 0 to more than 100 percent of the total aquifer thickness. The calibrated steady-state simulation generally reproduces the spatial distribution of measured water-level altitudes. Simulated water-level altitudes were within 9.0 meters of measured water-level altitudes at 74 of the 84 wells used as targets for the local-scale model for the calibrated steady-state simulation. The overall mean absolute difference between simulated and measured water-level altitudes is 4.2 meters, and the mean algebraic difference is 1.9 meters. The simulated springflow for San Antonio Springs was 7.7 percent greater and for San Pedro Springs was 4.2 percent less than the median measured springflow. Simulated tritium concentrations were within 0.14 tritium units of measured tritium concentrations for 11 of the 13 local-scale study tritium observations from the 10 local-scale study wells used to calibrate the steady-state local-scale model, with a mean absolute difference between simulated and measured tritium concentrations of 0.11 tritium units and a mean algebraic difference of -0.04 tritium units. Simulated tritium concentrations in the selected public-supply well during November 2007 were within 0.09 tritium units of the measured concentrations, with the exception of the shallowest observation from the well. The steady-state simulation water budget indicates that recharge occurring in the local-scale study area accounts for 31.8 percent of the sources of water to the Edwards aquifer in the local-scale model area and that inflow through the model boundaries contributes 68.2 percent. Most of the flow into the local-scale model area through the model boundaries occurs through the western and southern boundaries, 58.2 and 39.6 percent, respectively. The largest discharges from the Edwards aquifer in the local-scale model area are boundary outflow (71.4 percent) and withdrawals by wells (24.9 percent). Most of the flow out of the local-scale model area through the model boundaries occurs through the southern and eastern boundaries, 54.2 and 39.6 percent, respectively. The simulated zones of contribution for the selected public-supply well, Timberhill well nest, and Zarzamora well nest extend to the north, northeast, and northwest from each site in the confined zone of the aquifer into the recharge zone, where all recharge to the aquifer occurs. The area contributing recharge for the selected public-supply well has the greatest extent. The area contributing recharge for the Timberhill well nest encompasses approximately the western one-half of the area contributing recharge for the selected public-supply well, and that for the Zarzamora well nest encompasses approximately the eastern two-thirds of the area contributing recharge for the selected public-supply well. Simulated particle ages ranged from less than 1 day to more than 1,900 years in the 10 local-scale study wells (13 local-scale study tritium observations) used to calibrate the local-scale model. The simulated mean particle ages for the tritium observations representing selected well depths (shallow, intermediate, and deep) ranged from 2.5 to 15 years. The minimum (youngest) mean particle ages for the selected public-supply well and the Timberhill monitoring wells were for the intermediate well depth, while the youngest mean particle age for the Zarzamora monitoring wells was for the intermediate and deep well depth. The maximum (oldest) mean particle ages for the selected public-supply well and the Zarzamora monitoring wells were for the shallow well depth. The mean of simulated particle ages for tritium observations representing well depths open to the simulated conduit hydrogeologic units was 3.8 years, whereas the mean of simulated particle ages for tritium observations representing well depths not open to the simulated conduit hydrogeologic units was 9.6 years. The effect of short-circuit pathways, for example karst conduits, in the flow system on the movement of young water to the selected public-supply well could greatly alter contaminant arrival times compared to what might be expected from advection in a system without short circuiting. In a forecasting exercise, the simulated concentrations showed rapid initial response at the beginning and end of chemical input, followed by more gradual response as older water moved through the system. The nature of karst groundwater flow, where flow predominantly occurs via conduit flow paths, could lead to relatively rapid water quality responses to land-use changes. Results from the forecasting exercise indicate that timescales for change in the quality of water from the selected public-supply well could be on the order of a few years to decades for land-use changes that occur over days to decades, which has implications for source-water protection strategies that rely on land-use change to achieve water-quality objectives.

Texas↗