Geology topics

Katie M. Dugger

Publications and source records attributed to Katie M. Dugger.

81 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Evaluating multi-level models to test occupancy state responses of Plethodontid salamanders

Plethodontid salamanders are diverse and widely distributed taxa and play critical roles in ecosystem processes. Due to salamander use of structurally complex habitats, and because only a portion of a population is available for sampling, evaluation of sampling designs and estimators is critical to provide strong inference about Plethodontid ecology and responses to conservation and management activities. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the effectiveness of multi-scale and hierarchical single-scale occupancy models in the context of a Before-After Control-Impact (BACI) experimental design with multiple levels of sampling. Also, we fit the hierarchical single-scale model to empirical data collected for Oregon slender and Ensatina salamanders across two years on 66 forest stands in the Cascade Range, Oregon, USA. All models were fit within a Bayesian framework. Estimator precision in both models improved with increasing numbers of primary and secondary sampling units, underscoring the potential gains accrued when adding secondary sampling units. Both models showed evidence of estimator bias at low detection probabilities and low sample sizes; this problem was particularly acute for the multi-scale model. Our results suggested that sufficient sample sizes at both the primary and secondary sampling levels could ameliorate this issue. Empirical data indicated Oregon slender salamander occupancy was associated strongly with the amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = 0.74; SD = 0.24); Ensatina occupancy was not associated with amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = -0.01; SD = 0.29) . Our simulation results indicate that either model is suitable for use in an experimental study of Plethodontid salamanders provided that sample sizes are sufficiently large. However, hierarchical single-scale and multi-scale models describe different processes and estimate different parameters. As a result, we recommend careful consideration of study questions and objectives prior to sampling data and fitting models.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2015

The evolution of mapping habitat for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina): A comparison of photo-interpreted, Landsat-based, and lidar-based habitat maps

Wildlife habitat mapping has evolved at a rapid pace over the last few decades. Beginning with simple, often subjective, hand-drawn maps, habitat mapping now involves complex species distribution models (SDMs) using mapped predictor variables derived from remotely sensed data. For species that inhabit large geographic areas, remote sensing technology is often essential for producing range wide maps. Habitat monitoring for northern spotted owls ( Strix occidentalis caurina ), whose geographic covers about 23 million ha, is based on SDMs that use Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery to create forest vegetation data layers using gradient nearest neighbor (GNN) methods. Vegetation data layers derived from GNN are modeled relationships between forest inventory plot data, climate and topographic data, and the spectral signatures acquired by the satellite. When used as predictor variables for SDMs, there is some transference of the GNN modeling error to the final habitat map. Recent increases in the use of light detection and ranging (lidar) data, coupled with the need to produce spatially accurate and detailed forest vegetation maps have spurred interest in its use for SDMs and habitat mapping. Instead of modeling predictor variables from remotely sensed spectral data, lidar provides direct measurements of vegetation height for use in SDMs. We expect a SDM habitat map produced from directly measured predictor variables to be more accurate than one produced from modeled predictors. We used maximum entropy (Maxent) SDM modeling software to compare predictive performance and estimates of habitat area between Landsat-based and lidar-based northern spotted owl SDMs and habitat maps. We explored the differences and similarities between these maps, and to a pre-existing aerial photo-interpreted habitat map produced by local wildlife biologists. The lidar-based map had the highest predictive performance based on 10 bootstrapped replicate models (AUC = 0.809 ± 0.011), but the performance of the Landsat-based map was within acceptable limits (AUC = 0.717 ± 0.021). As is common with photo-interpreted maps, there was no accuracy assessment available for comparison. The photo-interpreted map produced the highest and lowest estimates of habitat area, depending on which habitat classes were included (nesting, roosting, and foraging habitat = 9962 ha, nesting habitat only = 6036 ha). The Landsat-based map produced an estimate of habitat area that was within this range (95% CI: 6679–9592 ha), while the lidar-based map produced an area estimate similar to what was interpreted by local wildlife biologists as nesting (i.e., high quality) habitat using aerial imagery (95% CI: 5453–7216). Confidence intervals of habitat area estimates from the SDMs based on Landsat and lidar overlapped. We concluded that both Landsat- and lidar-based SDMs produced reasonable maps and area estimates for northern spotted owl habitat within the study area. The lidar-based map was more precise and spatially similar to what local wildlife biologists considered spotted owl nesting habitat. The Landsat-based map provided a less precise spatial representation of habitat within the relatively small geographic confines of the study area, but habitat area estimates were similar to both the photo-interpreted and lidar-based maps. Photo-interpreted maps are time consuming to produce, subjective in nature, and difficult to replicate. SDMs provide a framework for efficiently producing habitat maps that can be replicated as habitat conditions change over time, provided that comparable remotely sensed data are available. When the SDM uses predictor variables extracted from lidar data, it can produce a habitat map that is both accurate and useful at large and small spatial scales. In comparison, SDMs using Landsat-based data are more appropriate for large scale analyses of amounts and general spatial patterns of habitat at regional scales.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2014

Adélie penguins coping with environmental change: Results from a natural experiment at the edge of their breeding range

We investigated life history responses to extreme variation in physical environmental conditions during a long-term demographic study of Adélie penguins at 3 colonies representing 9% of the world population and the full range of breeding colony sizes. Five years into the 14-year study (1997–2010) two very large icebergs (spanning 1.5 latitude degrees in length) grounded in waters adjacent to breeding colonies, dramatically altering environmental conditions during 2001–2005. This natural experiment allowed us to evaluate the relative impacts of expected long-term, but also extreme, short-term climate perturbations on important natural history parameters that can regulate populations. The icebergs presented physical barriers, not just to the penguins but to polynya formation, which profoundly increased foraging effort and movement rates, while reducing breeding propensity and productivity, especially at the smallest colony. We evaluated the effect of a variety of environmental parameters during breeding, molt, migration and wintering periods during years with and without icebergs on penguin breeding productivity, chick mass, and nesting chronology. The icebergs had far more influence on the natural history parameters of penguins than any of the other environmental variables measured, resulting in population level changes to metrics of reproductive performance, including delays in nesting chronology, depressed breeding productivity, and lower chick mass. These effects were strongest at the smallest, southern-most colony, which was most affected by alteration of the Ross Sea Polynya during years the iceberg was present. Additionally, chick mass was negatively correlated with colony size, supporting previous findings indicating density-dependent energetic constraints at the largest colony. Understanding the negative effects of the icebergs on the short-term natural history of Adélie penguins, as well as their response to long-term environmental variation, are important to our overall understanding of climate change effects in this and other species facing both rapid and persistent environmental change.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2014

Stable occupancy by breeding hawks ( Buteo spp.) over 25 years on a privately managed bunchgrass prairie in northeastern Oregon, USA

Potential for large prairie remnants to provide habitat for grassland-obligate wildlife may be compromised by nonsustainable range-management practices. In 1979–1980, high nesting densities of 3 species of hawks in the genus Buteo —Ferruginous Hawk ( Buteo regalis ), Red-tailed Hawk ( B. jamaicensis ), and Swainson's Hawk ( B. swainsoni )—were documented on the Zumwalt Prairie and surrounding agricultural areas (34,361 ha) in northeastern Oregon, USA. This area has been managed primarily as livestock summer range since it was homesteaded. Unlike in other prairie remnants, land management on the Zumwalt Prairie was consistent over the past several decades; thus, we predicted that territory occupancy of these 3 species would be stable. We also predicted that territory occupancy would be positively related to local availability of nesting structures within territories. We evaluated these hypotheses using a historical dataset, current survey and habitat data, and occupancy models. In support of our predictions, territory occupancy of all 3 species has not changed over the study period of &sim;25 yr, which suggests that local range-management practices are not negatively affecting these taxa. Probability of Ferruginous Hawk occupancy increased with increasing area of aspen, an important nest structure for this species in grasslands. Probability of Swainson's Hawk occupancy increased with increasing area of large shrubs, and probability of Red-tailed Hawk occupancy was weakly associated with area of conifers. In the study area, large shrubs and conifers are commonly used as nesting structures by Swainson's Hawks and Red-tailed Hawks, respectively. Availability of these woody species is changing (increases in conifers and large shrubs, and decline in aspen) throughout the west, and these changes may result in declines in Ferruginous Hawk occupancy and increases in Swainson's Hawk and Red-tailed Hawk occupancy in the future.

The Condor↗

USGS2013

Climate change winners: receding ice fields facilitate colony expansion and altered dynamics in an Adélie penguin metapopulation

There will be winners and losers as climate change alters the habitats of polar organisms. For an Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colony on Beaufort Island (Beaufort), part of a cluster of colonies in the southern Ross Sea, we report a recent population increase in response to increased nesting habitat as glaciers have receded. Emigration rates of birds banded as chicks on Beaufort to colonies on nearby Ross Island decreased after 2005 as available habitat on Beaufort increased, leading to altered dynamics of the metapopulation. Using aerial photography beginning in 1958 and modern satellite imagery, we measured change in area of available nesting habitat and population size of the Beaufort colony. Population size varied with available habitat, and both increased rapidly since the 1990s. In accord with glacial retreat, summer temperatures at nearby McMurdo Station increased by ~0.50°C per decade since the mid-1980s. Although the Ross Sea is likely to be the last ocean with an intact ecosystem, the recent retreat of ice fields at Beaufort that resulted in increased breeding habitat exemplifies a process that has been underway in the Ross Sea during the entire Holocene. Furthermore, our results are in line with predictions that major ice shelves and glaciers will retreat rapidly elsewhere in the Antarctic, potentially leading to increased breeding habitat for Adélie penguins. Results further indicated that satellite imagery may be used to estimate large changes in Adélie penguin populations, facilitating our understanding of metapopulation dynamics and environmental factors that influence regional populations.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2013

Survival and home-range size of Northern Spotted Owls in southwestern Oregon

In the Klamath province of southwestern Oregon, Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) occur in complex, productive forests that historically supported frequent fires of variable severity. However, little is known about the relationships between Spotted Owl survival and home-range size and the characteristics of fire-prone, mixed-conifer forests of the Klamath province. Thus, the objectives of this study were to estimate monthly survival rates and home-range size in relation to habitat characteristics for Northern Spotted Owls in southwestern Oregon. Home-range size and survival of 15 Northern Spotted Owls was monitored using radiotelemetry in the Ashland Ranger District of the Rogue River–Siskiyou National Forest from September 2006 to October 2008. Habitat classes within Spotted Owl home ranges were characterized using a remote-sensed vegetation map of the study area. Estimates of monthly survival ranged from 0.89 to 1.0 and were positively correlated with the number of late-seral habitat patches and the amount of edge, and negatively correlated with the mean nearest neighbor distance between late-seral habitats. Annual home-range size varied from to 189 to 894 ha ( x = 576; SE = 75), with little difference between breeding and nonbreeding home ranges. Breeding-season home-range size increased with the amount of hard edge, and the amount of old and mature forest combined. Core area, annual and nonbreeding season home-range sizes all increased with increased amounts of hard edge, suggesting that increased fragmentation is associated with larger core and home-range sizes. Although no effect of the amount of late-seral stage forest on either survival or home-range size was detected, these results are the first to concurrently demonstrate increased forest fragmentation with decreased survival and increased home-range size of Northern Spotted Owls.

Oregon↗

USGS2005

The relationship between habitat characteristics and demographic performance of northern spotted owls in southern Oregon

We used data from Northern Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) territories to model the effects of habitat (particularly intermediate-aged forest stand types), climate, and nonhabitat covariates (i.e., age, sex) on owl reproductive rate and apparent survival in southwestern Oregon. Our best model for reproductive rate included an interaction between a cyclic, annual time trend and male breeding experience, with higher reproductive rates in even years compared to odd, particularly for males with previous breeding experience. Reproductive rate was also negatively related to the amount of winter precipitation and positively related to the proportion of old-growth forest near the owl territory center. Apparent survival was not associated with age, sex, climate or any of the intermediate-aged forest types, but was positively associated with the proportion of older forest near the territory center in a pseudothreshold pattern. The quadratic structure of the proportion of nonhabitat farther from the nest or primary roost site was also part of our best survival model. Survival decreased dramatically when the amount of nonhabitat exceeded ∼50%. Habitat fitness potential estimates (λ̂ h ) for 97 owl territories ranged from 0.29–1.09, with a mean of 0.86 ± 0.02. Owl territories with habitat fitness potentials <1.0 were generally characterized by <40%–50% old forest habitat near the territory center. Our results indicate that both apparent survival and reproductive rate are positively associated with older forest types close to the nest or primary roost site. We found no support for either a positive or negative direct effect of intermediate-aged forests on either survival or reproductive rate.

Oregon↗

USGS2005

Modeling of site occupancy dynamics for northern spotted owls, with emphasis on the effects of barred owls

Northern spotted owls ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) have been studied intensively since their listing as a threatened species by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in 1990. Studies of spotted owl site occupancy have used various binary response measures, but most of these studies have made the assumption that detectability is perfect, or at least high and not variable. Further, previous studies did not consider temporal variation in site occupancy. We used relatively new methods for open population modeling of site occupancy that incorporated imperfect and variable detectability of spotted owls and allowed modeling of temporal variation in site occupancy, extinction, and colonization probabilities. We also examined the effects of barred owl ( S. varia ) presence on these parameters. We used spotted owl survey data from 1990 to 2002 for 3 study areas in Oregon, USA, and we used program MARK to develop and analyze site occupancy models. We found per visit detection probabilities averaged <0.70 and were highly variable among study years and study areas. Site occupancy probabilities for owl pairs declined greatly on 1 study area and slightly on the other 2 areas. For all owls, including singles and pairs, site occupancy was mostly stable through time. Barred owl presence had a negative effect on spotted owl detection probabilities, and it had either a positive effect on local-extinction probabilities or a negative effect on colonization probabilities. We conclude that further analyses of spotted owls must account for imperfect and variable detectability and barred owl presence to properly interpret results. Further, because barred owl presence is increasing within the range of northern spotted owls, we expect to see further declines in the proportion of sites occupied by spotted owls.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2002

Reproductive success of the interior least tern (Sterna antillarum) in relation to hydrology on the Lower Mississippi River

The annual hydrograph of large rivers, including flood pulses and low-flow periods, is believed to play a primary role in the productivity of biota associated with these ecosystems. We investigated the relationship between river hydrology and Interior least tern (Sterna antillarum) reproductive success on the Lower Mississippi River from April to July 1986-1993. The number of fledglings produced per adult pair was negatively correlated with July mean (r= -0.95, p = 0.0004) and July maximum river elevation (r= -0.97, p = 0.0001), but no other aspect of river hydrology were related to tern reproduction. Low-water elevations in July may benefit least tern reproductive success by increasing sand island area or the area of shallow-water habitat that surrounds islands. Loss of deep-water habitats in conjunction with an increase in shallow habitat during stage decreases may concentrate fish prey in shallow-water habitats and backwater areas, thereby increasing food availability during chick-rearing. Copyright ?? 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Lowe Mississippi River↗