Geology topics

Joel A. Carr

Publications and source records attributed to Joel A. Carr.

35 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2023

Foundations of modeling resilience of tidal saline wetlands to sea-level rise along the U.S. Pacific Coast

Context Tidal saline wetlands (TSWs) are highly threatened from climate-change effects of sea-level rise. Studies of TSWs along the East Coast U.S. and elsewhere suggest significant likely losses over coming decades but needed are analytic tools gauged to Pacific Coast U.S. wetlands. Objectives We predict the impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on the elevation capital (vertical) and migration potential (lateral) resilience of TSWs along the Pacific Coast U.S. over the period 2020 to 2150 under a 1.5-m SLR scenario, and identified TSWs at risk of most rapid loss of resilience. Here, we define vertical resilience as the amount of elevation capital and lateral resilience as the amount of TSW displacement area relative to existing area. Methods We used Bayesian network (BN) modeling to predict changes in resilience of TSWs as probabilities which can be useful in risk analysis and risk management. We developed the model using a database sample of 26 TSWs with 147 sediment core samples, among 16 estuary drainage areas along coastal California, Oregon, and Washington. Results We found that all TSW sites would lose at least 50% of their elevation capital resilience by 2060 to just before 2100, and 100% by 2070 to 2130, depending on the site. Under a 1.5-m sea-level rise scenario, nearly all sites in California will lose most or all of their lateral migration resilience. Resilience losses generally accelerated over time. In the BN model, elevation capital resilience is most sensitive to elevation capital at time t, mean tide level at time t, and change in sea level from time 0 to time t. Conclusions All TSW sites were projected with declines in resilience. Our model can further aid decision-making such as prioritizing sites for potential management adaptation strategies. We also identified variables most influencing resilience predictions and thus those potentially prioritized for monitoring or development of strategies to prevent loss regionally.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2022

GPS data from 2019 and 2020 campaigns in the Chesapeake Bay region towards quantifying vertical land motions

The Chesapeake Bay is a region along the eastern coast of the United States where sea-level rise is confounded with poorly resolved rates of land subsidence, thus new constraints on vertical land motions (VLM) in the region are warranted. In this paper, we provide a description of two campaign-style Global Positioning System (GPS) datasets, explain the methods used in data collection and validation, and present the experiment designed to quantify a new baseline of VLM in the Chesapeake Bay region of eastern North America. Data from GPS campaigns in 2019 and 2020 are presented as ASCII RINEX2.11 files and logsheets for each observation from the campaigns. Data were quality checked using the open-source program TEQC, resulting in average multipath 1 and 2 values of 0.68 and 0.57, respectively. All data are archived and publicly available for open access at the geodesy facility UNAVCO to abide by Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable (FAIR) data principles.

Chesapeake Bay area↗

USGS2022

Mangroves provide blue carbon ecological value at a low freshwater cost

“Blue carbon” wetland vegetation has a limited freshwater requirement. One type, mangroves, utilizes less freshwater during transpiration than adjacent terrestrial ecoregions, equating to only 43% (average) to 57% (potential) of evapotranspiration ( E T "> E T ). Here, we demonstrate that comparative consumptive water use by mangrove vegetation is as much as 2905 kL H 2 O ha −1 year −1 less than adjacent ecoregions with E c "> E c -to- E T "> E T ratios of 47–70%. Lower porewater salinity would, however, increase mangrove E c "> E c -to- E T "> E T ratios by affecting leaf-, tree-, and stand-level eco-physiological controls on transpiration. Restricted water use is also additive to other ecosystem services provided by mangroves, such as high carbon sequestration, coastal protection and support of biodiversity within estuarine and marine environments. Low freshwater demand enables mangroves to sustain ecological values of connected estuarine ecosystems with future reductions in freshwater while not competing with the freshwater needs of humans. Conservative water use may also be a characteristic of other emergent blue carbon wetlands.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2022

Variability in marsh migration potential determined by topographic rather than anthropogenic constraints in the Chesapeake Bay region

Sea level rise (SLR) and saltwater intrusion are driving inland shifts in coastal ecosystems. Here, we make high-resolution (1 m) predictions of land conversion under future SLR scenarios in 81 watersheds surrounding Chesapeake Bay, United States, a hotspot for accelerated SLR and saltwater intrusion. We find that 1050–3748 km 2 of marsh could be created by 2100, largely at the expense of forested wetlands. Predicted marsh migration exceeds total current tidal marsh area and is ~ 4× greater than historical observations. Anthropogenic land use in marsh migration areas is concentrated within a few watersheds and minimally impacts calculated metrics of marsh resilience. Despite regional marsh area maintenance, local ecosystem service replacement within vulnerable watersheds remains uncertain. However, our work suggests that topography rather than land use drives spatial variability in wetland vulnerability regionally, and that rural land conversion is needed to compensate for extensive areal losses on heavily developed coasts globally.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2021

Experimental tree mortality does not induce marsh transgression in a Chesapeake Bay low-lying coastal forest

Transgression into adjacent uplands is an important global response of coastal wetlands to accelerated rates of sea level rise. “Ghost forests” mark a signature characteristic of marsh transgression on the landscape, as changes in tidal inundation and salinity cause bordering upland tree mortality, increase light availability, and the emergence of tidal marsh species due to reduced competition. To investigate these mechanisms of the marsh migration process, we conducted a field experiment to simulate a natural disturbance event (e.g., storm-induced flooding) by inducing the death of established trees (coastal loblolly pine, Pinus taeda ) at the marsh-upland forest ecotone. After this simulated disturbance in 2014, we monitored changes in vegetation along an elevation gradient in control and treatment areas to determine if disturbance can lead to an ecosystem shift from forested upland to wetland vegetation. Light availability initially increased in the disturbed area, leading to an increase in biodiversity of vegetation with early successional grass and shrub species. However, over the course of this 5-year experiment, there was no increase in inundation in the disturbed areas relative to the control and pine trees recolonized becoming the dominant plant cover in the disturbed study areas. Thus, in the 5 years since the disturbance, there has been no overall shift in species composition toward more hydrophytic vegetation that would be indicative of marsh transgression with the removal of trees. These findings suggest that disturbance is necessary but not sufficient alone for transgression to occur. Unless hydrological characteristics suppress tree re-growth within a period of several years following disturbance, the regenerating trees will shade and outcompete any migrating wetland vegetation species. Our results suggest that complex interactions between disturbance, biotic resistance, and slope help determine the potential for marsh transgression.

Chesapeake Bay low-lying coastal forest↗

USGS2021

Modeling marsh dynamics using a 3-D coupled wave-flow-sediment model

Salt marshes are dynamic biogeomorphic systems that respond to external physical factors, including tides, sediment transport, and waves, as well as internal processes such as autochthonous soil formation. Predicting the fate of marshes requires a modeling framework that accounts for these processes in a coupled fashion. In this study, we implement two new marsh dynamic processes in the 3-D COAWST (coupled-ocean-atmosphere-wave sediment transport) model. The processes added are the erosion of the marsh edge scarp caused by lateral wave thrust from surface waves and vertical accretion driven by organic growth on the marsh platform. The sediment released from the marsh causes a change in bathymetry, thereby modifying the wave-energy reaching the marsh edge. Marsh vertical accretion due to biomass production is considered for a single vegetation species and is determined by the hydroperiod parameters (tidal datums) and the elevation of the marsh cells. Tidal datums are stored at user-defined intervals as a hindcast (on the order of days) and used to update the vertical growth formulation. Idealized domains are utilized to verify the lateral wave thrust formulation and show the dynamics of lateral wave erosion leading to horizontal retreat of marsh edge. The simulations of Reedy and Dinner Creeks within the Barnegat Bay estuary system demonstrate the model capability to account for both lateral wave erosion and vertical accretion due to organic growth in a realistic marsh complex. The simulations show that majority of accretion over the marsh complex occurs due to organic production while most estuarine sediment deposition occurs along the channel edges. The ability of the model to capture the fate of the sediment can be extended to model future storm and relative sea level rise (RSLR) scenarios.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

USGS2021

Quantifying slopes as a driver of forest to marsh conversion using geospatial techniques: Application to Chesapeake Bay coastal-plain, USA

Coastal salt marshes, which provide valuable ecosystem services such as flood mitigation and carbon sequestration, are threatened by rising sea level. In response, these ecosystems migrate landward, converting available upland into salt marsh. In the coastal-plain surrounding Chesapeake Bay, United States, conversion of coastal forest to salt marsh is well-documented and may offset salt marsh loss due to sea level rise, sediment deficits, and wave erosion. Land slope at the marsh-forest boundary is an important factor determining migration likelihood, however, the standard method of using field measurements to assess slope across the marsh-forest boundary is impractical on the scale of an estuary. Therefore, we developed a general slope quantification method that uses high resolution elevation data and a repurposed shoreline analysis tool to determine slope along the marsh-forest boundary for the entire Chesapeake Bay coastal-plain and find that less than 3% of transects have a slope value less than 1%; these low slope environments offer more favorable conditions for forest to marsh conversion. Then, we combine the bay-wide slope and elevation data with inundation modeling from Hurricane Isabel to determine likelihood of coastal forest conversion to salt marsh. This method can be applied to local and estuary-scale research to support management decisions regarding which upland forested areas are more critical to preserve as available space for marsh migration.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2021

Mangrove species’ response to sea-level rise across Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia

Mangrove forests are likely vulnerable to accelerating sea-level rise; however, we lack the tools necessary to understand their future resilience. On the Pacific island of Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia, mangroves are habitat to endangered species and provide critical ecosystem services that support local communities. We developed a generalizable modeling framework for mangroves that accounts for species interactions and the belowground processes that dictate soil elevation. The modeling framework was calibrated with extensive field datasets, including accretion rates derived from thirty 1-meter-deep soil cores dated with lead-210, more than 300 forest inventory plots, water-level monitoring, and differential leveling elevation surveys. We applied the model using a community of five mangrove species and across seven regions around Pohnpei to identify which regions are most vulnerable to sea-level rise. The responses of mean elevation and the mangrove community composition were analyzed under four global sea-level rise scenarios: an increase of 37, 52, 67, or 117 centimeters by 2100. The model was validated against a 20-year surface elevation table record (1999–2019) and showed good agreement when driven by observed water levels. The model projected that mangroves around Pohnpei can build their elevations relative to moderate rates of sea-level rise to prevent submergence, with limited changes in mangrove community composition through 2060. By 2100, however, the model projected a decreasing abundance of high-elevation mangrove species and an increasing abundance of lower elevation species adapted to more persistent flooding. Under higher sea-level rise scenarios, forest elevation decreased substantially relative to mean sea level and there were more drastic changes in the tree community composition and loss of suitable mangrove habitat by 2100. Variation in accretion rates, water levels, and initial forest elevation led to differential vulnerability around the island, such that mangroves on the leeward side of the island generally were the most at-risk to higher rates of sea-level rise. Our findings indicate that the relatively undisturbed state of the mangrove forests and the surrounding landscape is an important factor in their ability to keep pace with sea-level rise.

Pohnpei↗

USGS2020

Modelling marsh-forest boundary transgression in response to storms and sea-level rise

The lateral extent and vertical stability of salt marshes experiencing rising sea levels depend on interacting drivers and feedbacks with potential for non‐linear behaviors. A two‐dimensional transect model was developed to examine changes in marsh and upland forest lateral extent and to explore controls on marsh inland transgression. Model behavior demonstrates limited and abrupt forest retreat with long‐term upland boundary migration rates controlled by slope, sea level rise (SLR), high water events and biotic‐abiotic interactions. For low to moderate upland slopes the landward marsh edge is controlled by the interaction of these inundation events and forest recovery resulting in punctuated transgressive events. As SLR rates increase, the importance of the timing and frequency of water level deviations diminishes, and migration rates revert back to a slope‐SLR dominated process.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2020

Impacts of seagrass dynamics on the coupled long-term evolution of barrier-marsh-bay systems

Seagrass provides a wide range of economically and ecologically valuable ecosystem services, with shoreline erosion control often listed as a key service, but can also alter the sediment dynamics and waves within back-barrier bays. Here we incorporate seagrass dynamics into an existing barrier-marsh exploratory model, GEOMBEST++, to examine the coupled interactions of the back-barrier bay with both adjacent (marsh) and non-adjacent (barrier island) subsystems. While seagrass reduces marsh edge erosion rates and increases progradation rates in many of our 288 model simulations, seagrass surprisingly increases marsh edge erosion rates when sediment export from the back-barrier basin is negligible because the ability of seagrass to reduce the volume of marsh sediment eroded matters little for back-barrier basins in which all sediment is conserved. Our model simulations also suggest that adding seagrass to the bay subsystem leads to increased deposition in the bay, reduced sediment available to the marsh, and enhanced marsh edge erosion until the bay reaches a new, shallower equilibrium depth. In contrast, removing seagrass liberates previously-sequestered sediment that is then delivered to the marsh, leading to enhanced marsh progradation. Lastly, we find that seagrass reduces barrier island migration rates in the absence of back-barrier marsh by filling accommodation space in the bay. These model observations suggest that seagrass meadows operate as dynamic sources and sinks of sediment that can influence the evolution of coupled marsh and barrier island landforms in unanticipated ways.

Virginia↗

USGS2019

Climatic controls on the distribution of foundation plant species in coastal wetlands of the conterminous United States: Knowledge gaps and emerging research needs

Foundation plant species play a critical role in coastal wetlands, often modifying abiotic conditions that are too stressful for most organisms and providing the primary habitat features that support entire ecological communities. Here, we consider the influence of climatic drivers on the distribution of foundation plant species within coastal wetlands of the conterminous USA. Using region-level syntheses, we identified 24 dominant foundation plant species within 12 biogeographic regions, and we categorized species and biogeographic regions into four groups: graminoids, mangroves, succulents, and unvegetated. Literature searches were used to characterize the level of research directed at each of the 24 species. Most coastal wetlands research has been focused on a subset of foundation species, with about 45% of publications directed at just one grass species—Spartina alterniflora. An additional 14 and 8% have been directed, respectively, at two mangrove species—Rhizophora mangle and Avicennia germinans. At the national scale, winter temperature extremes govern the distribution of mangrove forests relative to salt marsh graminoids, and arid conditions can produce hypersaline conditions that increase the dominance of succulent plants, algal mats, and unvegetated tidal flats (i.e., salt flats, salt pans) relative to graminoid and mangrove plants. Collectively, our analyses illustrate the diversity of foundation plant species in the conterminous USA and begin to elucidate the influence of climatic drivers on their distribution. However, our results also highlight critical knowledge gaps and identify emerging research needs for assessing climate change impacts. Given the importance of plant-mediated processes in coastal wetland ecosystems, there is a pressing need in many biogeographic regions for additional species- and functional group-specific research that can be used to better anticipate coastal wetland responses to rising sea levels and changing temperature and precipitation regimes.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2019

Global virtual water trade and the hydrological cycle: Patterns, drivers, and socio-environmental impacts

The increasing global demand for farmland products is placing unprecedented pressure on the global agricultural system and its water resources. Many regions of the world, that are affected by a chronic water scarcity relative to their population, strongly depend on the import of agricultural commodities and associated embodied (or virtual) water. The globalization of water through virtual water trade is leading to a displacement of water use and a disconnection between human populations and the water resources they rely on. Despite the recognized importance of these phenomena in reshaping the patterns of water dependence through teleconnections between consumers and producers, their effect on global and regional water resources has just started to be quantified. This review investigates the global spatiotemporal dynamics, drivers, and impacts of virtual water trade through an integrated analysis of surface water, groundwater, and root-zone soil moisture consumption for agricultural production; it evaluates how virtual water flows compare to the major “physical water fluxes” in the Earth System; and provides a new reconceptualization of the hydrologic cycle to account also for the role of water redistribution by the hidden ‘virtual water cycle’.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2018

Exploring the impacts of seagrass on coupled marsh-tidal flat morphodynamics

Intertidal coastal environments are prone to changes induced by sea level rise, increases in storminess, temperature, and anthropogenic disturbances. It is unclear how changes in external drivers may affect the dynamics of low energy coastal environments because their response is non-linear, and characterized by many thresholds and discontinuities. As such, process-based modeling of the ecogeomorphic processes underlying the dynamics of these ecosystems is useful, not only to predict their change through time, but also to generate new hypotheses and research questions. Here, we used a three-point dynamic model to investigate how seagrass might affect the behavior of coupled marsh-tidal flat systems. The model directly incorporates ecogeomorphological feedbacks among wind waves, salt marsh vegetation, allochthonous sediment loading, seagrasses and sea level rise. The model was applied to examine potential behaviors of salt marsh systems in the Virginia coastal bays. Differences due to the presence or absence of seagrass and stochastic vs. constant drivers lead to the emergence of complex behaviors in the coupled salt marsh-tidal flat system. In intertidal areas without seagrass, small tidal flats are unlikely to expand and provide enough sediment to the salt marshes to combat sea level rise. However, as the tidal flat expands, the concurrent increase in sediment supply due to wave-induced processes allows for the salt marsh to maintain pace with sea level at the expense of salt marsh extent. The presence of seagrass has two effects: (1) it decreases near bed shear stresses thus reducing the sediment flux to the salt marsh platform; (2) it reduces the wave energy acting on the salt marsh scarp, thus reducing boundary erosion. Model results indicate that the reductions in wave power and near bed shear stresses when seagrass is present provide an overall stabilizing effect on the coupled marsh-tidal flat system; but as water depth increases due to sea level rise or as external sediment supply increases, light conditions decline and the system reverts to that of a bare tidal flat.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗

USGS2018

The Global food‐energy‐water nexus

Water availability is a major factor constraining humanity's ability to meet the future food and energy needs of a growing and increasingly affluent human population. Water plays an important role in the production of energy, including renewable energy sources and the extraction of unconventional fossil fuels that are expected to become important players in future energy security. The emergent competition for water between the food and energy systems is increasingly recognized in the concept of the “food‐energy‐water nexus.” The nexus between food and water is made even more complex by the globalization of agriculture and rapid growth in food trade, which results in a massive virtual transfer of water among regions and plays an important role in the food and water security of some regions. This review explores multiple components of the food‐energy‐water nexus and highlights possible approaches that could be used to meet food and energy security with the limited renewable water resources of the planet. Despite clear tensions inherent in meeting the growing and changing demand for food and energy in the 21st century, the inherent linkages among food, water, and energy systems can offer an opportunity for synergistic strategies aimed at resilient food, water, and energy security, such as the circular economy.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

USGS2016

Sea level driven marsh expansion in a coupled model of marsh erosion and migration

Coastal wetlands are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth, where ecosystem services such as flood protection depend nonlinearly on wetland size and are threatened by sea level rise and coastal development. Here we propose a simple model of marsh migration into adjacent uplands and couple it with existing models of seaward edge erosion and vertical soil accretion to explore how ecosystem connectivity influences marsh size and response to sea level rise. We find that marsh loss is nearly inevitable where topographic and anthropogenic barriers limit migration. Where unconstrained by barriers, however, rates of marsh migration are much more sensitive to accelerated sea level rise than rates of edge erosion. This behavior suggests a counterintuitive, natural tendency for marsh expansion with sea level rise and emphasizes the disparity between coastal response to climate change with and without human intervention.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2016

Spatially explicit feedbacks between seagrass meadow structure, sediment and light: Habitat suitability for seagrass growth

In shallow coastal bays where nutrient loading and riverine inputs are low, turbidity, and the consequent light environment are controlled by resuspension of bed sediments due to wind-waves and tidal currents. High sediment resuspension and low light environments can limit benthic primary productivity; however, both currents and waves are affected by the presence of benthic plants such as seagrass. This feedback between the presence of benthic primary producers such as seagrass and the consequent light environment has been predicted to induce bistable dynamics locally. However, these vegetated areas influence a larger area than they footprint, including a barren adjacent downstream area which exhibits reduced shear stresses. Here we explore through modeling how the patchy structure of seagrass meadows on a landscape may affect sediment resuspension and the consequent light environment due to the presence of this sheltered region. Heterogeneous vegetation covers comprising a mosaic of randomly distributed patches were generated to investigate the effect of patch modified hydrodynamics. Actual cover of vegetation on the landscape was used to facilitate comparisons across landscape realizations. Hourly wave and current shear stresses on the landscape along with suspended sediment concentration and light attenuation characteristics were then calculated and spatially averaged to examine how actual cover and mean water depth affect the bulk sediment and light environment. The results indicate that an effective cover, which incorporates the sheltering area, has important controls on the distributions of shear stress, suspended sediment, light environment, and consequent seagrass habitat suitability. Interestingly, an optimal habitat occurs within a depth range where, if actual cover is reduced past some threshold, the bulk light environment would no longer favor seagrass growth.

Advances in Water Resources↗

USGS2016

Tree island pattern formation in the Florida Everglades

The Florida Everglades freshwater landscape exhibits a distribution of islands covered by woody vegetation and bordered by marshes and wet prairies. Known as “tree islands”, these ecogeomorphic features can be found in few other low gradient, nutrient limited freshwater wetlands. In the last few decades, however, a large percentage of tree islands have either shrank or disappeared in apparent response to altered water depths and other stressors associated with human impacts on the Everglades. Because the processes determining the formation and spatial organization of tree islands remain poorly understood, it is still unclear what controls the sensitivity of these landscapes to altered conditions. We hypothesize that positive feedbacks between woody plants and soil accretion are crucial to emergence and decline of tree islands. Likewise, positive feedbacks between phosphorus (P) accumulation and trees explain the P enrichment commonly observed in tree island soils. Here, we develop a spatially-explicit model of tree island formation and evolution, which accounts for these positive feedbacks (facilitation) as well as for long range competition and fire dynamics. It is found that tree island patterns form within a range of parameter values consistent with field data. Simulated impacts of reduced water levels, increased intensity of drought, and increased frequency of dry season/soil consuming fires on these feedback mechanisms result in the decline and disappearance of tree islands on the landscape.

Florida↗