Geology Reports⌕ Search

Geology topics

E. D. Attanasi

Publications and source records attributed to E. D. Attanasi.

34 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS1993

Statistics of petroleum exploration in the Caribbean, Latin America, Western Europe, the Middle East, Africa, non-communist Asia, and the southwestern Pacific

This circular presents a summary of the geographic location, amount, and results of petroleum exploration, including an atlas showing explored and delineated prospective areas through 1990. The data show that wildcat well drilling has continued through the last decade to expand the prospective area by about 40,000 to 50,000 square miles per year. However, the area delineated by 1970, which represents only about one-third of the prospective area delineated to date, contains about 80 percent of the oil discovered to date. This discovery distribution suggests that, from an overall prospective, the industry was successful in delineating the most productive areas early. The price increases of the 1970's and 1980's allowed the commercial exploration and development of fields in high-cost areas, such as the North Sea and Campos Basin, Brazil. Data on natural-gas discoveries also indicate that gas will be supplying an increasing share of the worldwide energy market. The size distribution of petroleum provinces is highly skewed. The skewed distribution and the stability in province size orderings suggest that intense exploration in identified provinces will not change the distribution of oil within the study area. Although evidence of the field-growth phenomenon outside the United States and Canada is presented, the data are not yet reliable enough for projecting future growth. The field-growth phenomenon implies not only that recent discoveries are substantially understated, but that field growth could become the dominant source of additions to proved reserves in the future.

Circular↗
USGS1991

Resource constraints in petroleum production potential

Geologic reasons indicate that the dominant position of the Middle East as a source of conventional petroleum will not be changed by new discoveries elsewhere. The share of world crude oil production coming from the Middle East could increase, within 10 to 20 years, to exceed 50 percent, under even modest increases in world consumption. Nonconventional resources of oil exist in large quantities, but because of their low production rates they can at best only mitigate extant trends. Increased production of natural gas outside the United States, however, offers an opportunity for geographically diversified energy supplies in the near future.

Science↗
USGS1988

Observed oil and gas field size distributions: A consequence of the discovery process and prices of oil and gas

If observed oil and gas field size distributions are obtained by random samplings, the fitted distributions should approximate that of the parent population of oil and gas fields. However, empirical evidence strongly suggests that larger fields tend to be discovered earlier in the discovery process than they would be by random sampling. Economic factors also can limit the number of small fields that are developed and reported. This paper examines observed size distributions in state and federal waters of offshore Texas. Results of the analysis demonstrate how the shape of the observable size distributions change with significant hydrocarbon price changes. Comparison of state and federal observed size distributions in the offshore area shows how production cost differences also affect the shape of the observed size distribution. Methods for modifying the discovery rate estimation procedures when economic factors significantly affect the discovery sequence are presented. A primary conclusion of the analysis is that, because hydrocarbon price changes can significantly affect the observed discovery size distribution, one should not be confident about inferring the form and specific parameters of the parent field size distribution from the observed distributions. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Mathematical Geology↗
USGS1988

Physical deposit measures and commercial potential: The case of titanium-bearing heavy-mineral deposits

Physical measures of mineral deposit characteristics, such as grade and tonnage, long have been used in both subjective and analytic models to predict favorability of areas for the occurrence of mineral deposits of particular types. After a deposit has been identified, however, the explorationist must decide whether to continue data collection, begin an economic feasibility study, or abandon the prospect. The decision maker can estimate the probability that a deposit will be commercial by examining physical measures. The amount of sampling data required before such a probability estimate can be considered reliable can be determined. A logit probability model estimated from onshore titanium-bearing heavy-mineral deposit data identifies and quantifies the relative influence of a deposit's physical measures on the chances of the deposit becoming commercial. A principal conclusion that can be drawn from the analysis is that, along with a measure of deposit size, the characteristics most important in predicting commercial potential are grades of the constituent minerals. Total heavy-mineral-bearing sand grade or even total titanium grade (without data on constituent mineral grades) are poor predictors of the deposit's commercial potential. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Mathematical Geology↗
USGS1985

Lognormal field size distributions as a consequence of economic truncation

The assumption of lognormal (parent) field size distributions has for a long time been applied to resource appraisal and evaluation of exploration strategy by the petroleum industry. However, frequency distributions estimated with observed data and used to justify this hypotheses are conditional. Examination of various observed field size distributions across basins and over time shows that such distributions should be regarded as the end result of an economic filtering process. Commercial discoveries depend on oil and gas prices and field development costs. Some new fields are eliminated due to location, depths, or water depths. This filtering process is called economic truncation. Economic truncation may occur when predictions of a discovery process are passed through an economic appraisal model. We demonstrate that (1) economic resource appraisals, (2) forecasts of levels of petroleum industry activity, and (3) expected benefits of developing and implementing cost reducing technology are sensitive to assumptions made about the nature of that portion of (parent) field size distribution subject to economic truncation. ?? 1985 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe↗
USGS1984

Forecasting rates of hydrocarbon discoveries in a changing economic environment

A method is presented for the estimation of undiscovered oil and gas resources in partially explored areas where economic truncation has caused some discoveries to go unreported; therefore distorting the relationship between the observed discovery size distribution and the parent or ultimate field size distribution. The method is applied to the UK's northern and central North Sea provinces. A discovery process model is developed to estimate the number and size distribution of undiscovered fields in this area as of 1983. The model is also used to forecast the rate at which fields will be discovered in the future. The appraisal and forecasts pertain to fields in size classes as small as 24 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). Estimated undiscovered hydrocarbon resources of 11.79 billion BOE are expected to be contained in 170 remaining fields. Over the first 500 wildcat wells after 1 January 1983, the discovery rate in this areas is expected to decline by 60% from 15 million BOE per wildcat well to six million BOE per wildcat well. ?? 1984.

Marine and Petroleum Geology↗
USGS1981

Design of exploration and minerals-data-collection programs in developing areas

This paper considers the practical problem of applying economic analysis to designing minerals exploration and data collection strategies for developing countries. Formal decision rules for the design of government exploration and minerals-data-collection programs are derived by using a minerals-industry planning model that has been extended to include an exploration function. Rules derived are applicable to centrally planned minerals industries as well as market-oriented minerals sectors. They pertain to the spatial allocation of exploration effort and to the allocation of activities between government and private concerns for market-oriented economies. Programs characterized by uniform expenditures, uniform information coverage across regions, or uniform-density grid drilling progrmas are shown to be inferior to the strategy derived. Moreover, for market-oriented economies, the economically optimal mix in exploration activities between private and government data collection would require that only private firms assess local sites and that government agencies carry out regional surveys.

Socio-Economic Planning Sciences↗
USGS1981

Economics and coal resource appraisal: strippable coal in the Illinois Basin ( USA)

Coal-resource appraisals generally describe the location and general characteristics of coal beds. Estimates are made of the average overburden depth (depth of the coal bed below the surface), bed thickness, and perhaps certain chemical properties of the coal [1]. Although such resource compilations represent an important initial step, neither they nor current estimates provide sufficient information to determine the costs of alternative options for National energy policy. Because coal is expected to provide an increasing part of future overall U.S. energy supply, it is crucial for long term planning that coalresource appraisals convey sufficient information regarding the degree of economic resource scarcity (escalation of unit costs for mining remaining deposits as the best deposits in an area are mined out) expected as coal consumption increases. However, assumptions embodied in most large-scale models of coal supply [13; 20] imply that the coal reserves that exist can be commercially produced as needed. As demonstrated by the embargo of 1973-1974 and more recent difficulties in obtaining crude oil, even a slight temporary commodity shortfall will result in significant economic losses when the commodity supplies a large proportion of the total energy used by an economy. For the United States, crude oil resource estimates did not give warning of a decline in domestic petroleum product. In this paper we argue that coal-resource estimates, as they are now made, will not give warning of future supply difficulties. A method for incorporating an economic dimension into appraisals of strippable coal resources is presented and is applied to a major U.S. coal-producing region, the Illinois part of the Illinois basin. Illinois accounts for nearly 70% of the demonstrated strippable coal reserve base of the Illinois basin [12]. In particular, a long-run incremental cost function (that is unit costs vs. cumulative reserves extracted) is estimated for strippable coal in Illinois. The estimated cost function exhibits an initial range over which costs increase at a constant rate-followed by a range where costs increase very rapidly and the function becomes quite inelastic. This long-run incremental cost function is significant for two reasons. Comparison of the demonstrated reserve base for strippable coal (14.8 billion tons) with cumulative production (since 1920 of 1.1 billion tons) might suggest that future depletion will not be significant when, in fact, the cost function presented here indicates otherwise. Because the only states having more reserves of strippable coal than Illinois are Montana and Wyoming [18], these results have implications for national coal-resource appraisal. Secondly, most models used to study the effects of alternative public policies in coal markets are static in nature [15; 16] and cannot consider the effects of increasing costs. Furthermore, models which are multi-period in nature [11; 13] appear to have little empirical basis for their assumptions regarding the escalation of production costs resulting from depletion. The plan of the paper is as follows. First a description of the analytical approach for constructing the long-run incremental cost-reserve function is discussed. Following this, the descriptions of the Illinois basin and the basic physical data are presented. In the concluding section, the main results are presented and their implications are explored

Southern Economic Journal↗
USGS1980

Petroleum-resource appraisal and discovery rate forecasting in partially explored regions

PART A: A model of the discovery process can be used to predict the size distribution of future petroleum discoveries in partially explored basins. The parameters of the model are estimated directly from the historical drilling record, rather than being determined by assumptions or analogies. The model is based on the concept of the area of influence of a drill hole, which states that the area of a basin exhausted by a drill hole varies with the size and shape of targets in the basin and with the density of previously drilled wells. It also uses the concept of discovery efficiency, which measures the rate of discovery within several classes of deposit size. The model was tested using 25 years of historical exploration data (1949-74) from the Denver basin. From the trend in the discovery rate (the number of discoveries per unit area exhausted), the discovery efficiencies in each class of deposit size were estimated. Using pre-1956 discovery and drilling data, the model accurately predicted the size distribution of discoveries for the 1956-74 period. PART B: A stochastic model of the discovery process has been developed to predict, using past drilling and discovery data, the distribution of future petroleum deposits in partially explored basins, and the basic mathematical properties of the model have been established. The model has two exogenous parameters, the efficiency of exploration and the effective basin size. The first parameter is the ratio of the probability that an actual exploratory well will make a discovery to the probability that a randomly sited well will make a discovery. The second parameter, the effective basin size, is the area of that part of the basin in which drillers are willing to site wells. Methods for estimating these parameters from locations of past wells and from the sizes and locations of past discoveries were derived, and the properties of estimators of the parameters were studied by simulation. PART C: This study examines the temporal properties and determinants of petroleum exploration for firms operating in the Denver basin. Expectations associated with the favorability of a specific area are modeled by using distributed lag proxy variables (of previous discoveries) and predictions from a discovery process model. In the second part of the study, a discovery process model is linked with a behavioral well-drilling model in order to predict the supply of new reserves. Results of the study indicate that the positive effects of new discoveries on drilling increase for several periods and then diminish to zero within 2? years after the deposit discovery date. Tests of alternative specifications of the argument of the distributed lag function using alternative minimum size classes of deposits produced little change in the model's explanatory power. This result suggests that, once an exploration play is underway, favorable operator expectations are sustained by the quantity of oil found per time period rather than by the discovery of specific size deposits. When predictions of the value of undiscovered deposits (generated from a discovery process model) were substituted for the expectations variable in models used to explain exploration effort, operator behavior was found to be consistent with these predictions. This result suggests that operators, on the average, were efficiently using information contained in the discovery history of the basin in carrying out their exploration plans. Comparison of the two approaches to modeling unobservable operator expectations indicates that the two models produced very similar results. The integration of the behavioral well-drilling model and discovery process model to predict the additions to reserves per unit time was successful only when the quarterly predictions were aggregated to annual values. The accuracy of the aggregated predictions was also found to be reasonably robust to errors in predictions from the behavioral well-drilling equation.

Professional Paper↗
USGS1976

Leasing policies for the extractive resources

Much of the available analysis of policies for the disposal of publicly held resources is based on comparatively straightforward extensions of the neoclassical pricing and allocation theory. As such, these analyses have to a large extent not fully incorporated the fact that firms normally acquire rights to these resources in sealed tender markets. In this paper, a simple bidding model is used to show that the choice of disposal policies can influence the firm's bid and also the public revenues obtained from the sale of the resource. It is additionally shown that the implications of such policy choices are conditioned by the firm's attitudes towards risk. Finally, it is argued that a modification of existing prescriptions may be necessary if a more realistic specification of the disposal problem taking account of the sealed tender market in which rights are obtained, is considered.

The Annals of Regional Science↗
USGS1975

Techniques for water demand analysis and forecasting: Puerto Rico, a case study

The rapid economic growth of the Commonwealth-of Puerto Rico since 1947 has brought public pressure on Government agencies for rapid development of public water supply and waste treatment facilities. Since 1945 the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority has had the responsibility for planning, developing and operating water supply and waste treatment facilities on a municipal basis. The purpose of this study was to develop operational techniques whereby a planning agency, such as the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority, could project the temporal and spatial distribution of .future water demands. This report is part of a 2-year cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Environmental Quality Board of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, for the development of systems analysis techniques for use in water resources planning. While the Commonwealth was assisted in the development of techniques to facilitate ongoing planning, the U.S. Geological Survey attempted to gain insights in order to better interface its data collection efforts with the planning process. The report reviews the institutional structure associated with water resources planning for the Commonwealth. A brief description of alternative water demand forecasting procedures is presented and specific techniques and analyses of Puerto Rico demand data are discussed. Water demand models for a specific area of Puerto Rico are then developed. These models provide a framework for making several sets of water demand forecasts based on alternative economic and demographic assumptions. In the second part of this report, the historical impact of water resources investment on regional economic development is analyzed and related to water demand .forecasting. Conclusions and future data needs are in the last section.

Open-File Report↗