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E. D. Attanasi

Publications and source records attributed to E. D. Attanasi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2010

Worth of data and natural disaster insurance

The Federal Government in the past has provided medical and economic aid to victims of earthquakes and floods. However, regulating the use of hazard-prone areas would probably be more efficient. One way to implement such land use regulation is through the national flood and earthquake insurance program. Because insurance firms base their premium rates on available information, the benefits from additional data used to improve parameter estimates of the probability distribution (governing actual disaster events) can be computed by computing changes in the premiums as a function of additional data. An insurance firm is assumed to set rates so as to trade off penalties of overestimation and underestimation of expected damages. A Bayesian preposterior analysis is applied to determine the worth of additional data, as measured by changes in consumers’ surplus, by examining the effects of changes in premiums as a function of a longer hydrologic record.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

Flood risks and the willingness to purchase flood insurance

Computer simulation experiments were conducted to determine the effects of alternative sources of uncertainty on the willingness to pay for flood insurance. Two alternative insurance protection schemes were investigated: coinsurance and fixed coverage. The question investigated here is to what extent does the insurance scheme influence how purchasers respond to flood risks? Floods were assumed to be log normally distributed and the effects on the purchase of insurance of uncertainties in the parameters of the distribution were explored using response surface analysis. Results indicate that fixed coverage insurance provisions shift most of the uncertainty in the physical parameters governing natural disaster occurrences away from the insuree and onto the insurer. The results also show that the form of the damage function has little effect on the demand for flood insurance.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

2010 updated assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA)

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated mean volumes of 896 million barrels of oil (MMBO) and about 53 trillion cubic feet (TCFG) of nonassociated natural gas in conventional, undiscovered accumulations within the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska and adjacent State waters. The estimated volume of undiscovered oil is significantly lower than estimates released in 2002, owing primarily to recent exploration drilling that revealed an abrupt transition from oil to gas and reduced reservoir quality in the Alpine sandstone 15-20 miles west of the giant Alpine oil field. The National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) has been the focus of oil exploration during the past decade, stimulated by the mid-1990s discovery of the adjacent Alpine field-the largest onshore oil discovery in the United States during the past 25 years. Recent activities in NPRA, including extensive 3-D seismic surveys, six Federal lease sales totaling more than $250 million in bonus bids, and completion of more than 30 exploration wells on Federal and Native lands, indicate in key formations more gas than oil and poorer reservoir quality than anticipated. In the absence of a gas pipeline from northern Alaska, exploration has waned and several petroleum companies have relinquished assets in the NPRA. This fact sheet updates U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates of undiscovered oil and gas in NPRA, based on publicly released information from exploration wells completed during the past decade and on the results of research that documents significant Cenozoic uplift and erosion in NPRA. The results included in this fact sheet-released in October 2010-supersede those of a previous assessment completed by the USGS in 2002.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2009

Evaluation of procedures for prediction of unconventional gas in the presence of geologic trends

This study extends the application of local spatial nonparametric prediction models to the estimation of recoverable gas volumes in continuous-type gas plays to regimes where there is a single geologic trend. A transformation is presented, originally proposed by Tomczak, that offsets the distortions caused by the trend. This article reports on numerical experiments that compare predictive and classification performance of the local nonparametric prediction models based on the transformation with models based on Euclidean distance. The transformation offers improvement in average root mean square error when the trend is not severely misspecified. Because of the local nature of the models, even those based on Euclidean distance in the presence of trends are reasonably robust. The tests based on other model performance metrics such as prediction error associated with the high-grade tracts and the ability of the models to identify sites with the largest gas volumes also demonstrate the robustness of both local modeling approaches. ?? International Association for Mathematical Geology 2009.

Natural Resources Research↗
USGS2008

Volatility of bitumen prices and implications for the industry

Sustained crude oil price increases have led to increased investment in and production of Canadian bitumen to supplement North American oil supplies. For new projects, the evaluation of profitability is based on a prediction of the future price path of bitumen and ultimately light/medium crude oil. This article examines the relationship between the bitumen and light crude oil prices in the context of a simple error-correction economic-adjustment model. The analysis shows bitumen prices to be significantly more volatile than light crude prices. Also, the dominant effect of an oil price shock on bitumen prices is immediate and is amplified, both in absolute terms and percentage price changes. It is argued that the bitumen industry response to such market risks will likely be a realignment toward vertical integration via new downstream construction, mergers, or on a de facto basis by the establishment of alliances. ?? 2008 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Natural Resources Research↗
USGS2002

Comparison of two probability distributions used to model sizes of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations: Does the tail wag the assessment?

Undiscovered oil and gas assessments are commonly reported as aggregate estimates of hydrocarbon volumes. Potential commercial value and discovery costs are, however, determined by accumulation size, so engineers, economists, decision makers, and sometimes policy analysts are most interested in projected discovery sizes. The lognormal and Pareto distributions have been used to model exploration target sizes. This note contrasts the outcomes of applying these alternative distributions to the play level assessments of the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 National Oil and Gas Assessment. Using the same numbers of undiscovered accumulations and the same minimum, medium, and maximum size estimates, substitution of the shifted truncated lognormal distribution for the shifted truncated Pareto distribution reduced assessed undiscovered oil by 16% and gas by 15%. Nearly all of the volume differences resulted because the lognormal had fewer larger fields relative to the Pareto. The lognormal also resulted in a smaller number of small fields relative to the Pareto. For the Permian Basin case study presented here, reserve addition costs were 20% higher with the lognormal size assumption. ?? 2002 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Mathematical Geology↗
USGS2001

Geologic coal assessment: The interface with economics

Geologic resource assessments describe the location, general characteristics, and estimated volumes of resources, whether in situ or technically recoverable. Such compilations are only an initial step in economic resource evaluation. This paper identifies, by examples from the Illinois and Appalachian basins, the salient features of a geologic assessment that assure its usefulness to downstream economic analysis. Assessments should be in sufficient detail to allocate resources to production units (mines or wells). Coal assessments should include the spatial distribution of coal bed characteristics and the ability to allocate parts of the resource to specific mining technologies. For coal bed gas assessment, the production well recoveries and well deliverability characteristics must be preserved and the risk structure should be specified so dryholes and noncommercial well costs are recovered by commercially successful wells.

Natural Resources Research↗
USGS1999

Oil, gas field growth projections: Wishful thinking or reality?

The observed `field growth' for the period from 1992 through 1996 with the US Geological Survey's (USGS) predicted field growth for the same period are compared. Known field recovery of field size is defined as the sum of past cumulative field production and the field's proved reserves. Proved reserves are estimated quantities of hydrocarbons which geologic and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to recoverable from known fields under existing economic and operating conditions. Proved reserve estimates calculated with this definition are typically conservative. The modeling approach used by the USGS to characterize `field growth phenomena' is statistical rather that geologic in nature.

Oil & Gas Journal↗
USGS1999

Coal-fired power generaion, new air quality regulations, and future U.S. coal production

Tighter new regulation of stack gas emissions and competition in power generation are driving electrical utilities to demand cleaner, lower sulfur coal. Historical data on sulfur content of produced coals shows little variability in coal quality for individual mines and individual coal-producing counties over relatively long periods of time. If coal-using power generators follow the compliance patterns established in Phase I of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, then the industry's response to the tighter Phase II emissions standards will result in large amounts of coal production shifting from higher sulfur areas to areas with lower cost low sulfur coal. One reason this shift will likely occur is that currently only 30% of U.S. coal-fired electrical generating capacity is equipped with flue-gas scrubbers. In 1995, coal mines in the higher sulfur areas of the Illinois Basin and Northern and Central Appalachia employed 78% of all coal miners (>70,000 miners). A substantial geographical redistribution of the nation's coal supplies will likely lead to economic dislocations that will reach beyond local coal-producing areas.

Environmental Geosciences↗
USGS1998

Relative importance of physical and economic factors in Appalachian coalbed gas assessment

In the 1995 National Assessment of Oil and Gas Resources prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey, only 20% of the assessed technically recoverable Appalachian Province coalbed gas resources were economic. Physical and economic variables are examined to explain the disparity between economic and technically recoverable coalbed gas. The Anticline and Syncline plays of the Northern Appalachian Basin, which account for 77% of the assessed technically recoverable coalbed gas, are not economic. Analysis shows marginal reductions in costs or rate of return will not turn these plays into commercial successes. Physical parameters that determine ultimate well recoverability and the rate of gas recovery are primary reasons the Northern Appalachian Basin plays are non-commercial. If the application of new well stimulation technology could offset slow gas desorption rates, Appalachian Province economic gas could increase to more then 70% of the technically recoverable gas. Similarly, if operators are able to develop strategies to selectively drill plays by avoiding dry holes and non-commercial occurrences, the economic fraction of technically recoverable gas could increase to over half.In the 1995 National Assessment of Oil and Gas Resources prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey, only 20% of the assessed technically recoverable Appalachian Province coalbed gas resources were economic. Physical and economic variables are examined to explain the disparity between economic and technically recoverable coalbed gas. The Anticline and Syncline plays of the Northern Appalachian Basin, which account for 77% of the assessed technically recoverable coalbed gas, are not economic. Analysis shows marginal reductions in costs or rate of return will not turn these plays into commercial successes. Physical parameters that determine ultimate well recoverability and the rate of gas recovery are primary reasons the Northern Appalachian Basin plays are non-commercial. If the application of new well stimulation technology could offset slow gas desorption rates, Appalachian Province economic gas could increase to more then 70% of the technically recoverable gas. Similarly, if operators are able to develop strategies to selectively drill plays by avoiding dry holes and non-commercial occurrences, the economic fraction of technically recoverable gas could increase to over half.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS1994

US North Slope gas and Asian LNG markets

Prospects for export of liquified natural gas (LNG) from Alaska's North Slope are assessed. Projected market conditions to 2010 show that new LNG capacity beyond announced expansions will be needed to meet regional demand and that supplies will probably come from outside the region. The estimated delivered costs of likely suppliers show that Alaska North Slope gas will not be competitive. The alternative North Slope gas development strategies of transport and sale to the lower 48 states and use on the North Slope for either enhanced oil recovery or conversion to liquids are examined. The alternative options require delaying development until US gas prices increase, exhaustion of certain North Slope oil fields, or advances occur in gas to liquid fuels conversion technology.

Resources Policy↗