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D. M. Perkins

Publications and source records attributed to D. M. Perkins.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2012

2014 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps are revised every six years, corresponding with the update cycle of the International Building Code. These maps cover the conterminous U.S. and will be updated in 2014 using the best-available science that is obtained from colleagues at regional and topical workshops, which are convened in 2012-2013. Maps for Alaska and Hawaii will be updated shortly following this update. Alternative seismic hazard models discussed at the workshops will be implemented in a logic tree framework and will be used to develop the seismic hazard maps and associated products. In this paper we describe the plan to update the hazard maps, the issues raised in workshops up to March 2012, and topics that will be discussed at future workshops. An advisory panel will guide the development of the hazard maps and ensure that the maps are acceptable to a broad segment of the science and engineering communities. These updated maps will then be considered by end-users for inclusion in building codes, risk models, and public policy documents.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2011

Are secular correlations between sunspots, geomagnetic activity, and global temperature significant?

Recent studies have led to speculation that solar‐terrestrial interaction, measured by sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, has played an important role in global temperature change over the past century or so. We treat this possibility as an hypothesis for testing. We examine the statistical significance of cross‐correlations between sunspot number, geomagnetic activity, and global surface temperature for the years 1868–2008, solar cycles 11–23. The data contain substantial autocorrelation and nonstationarity, properties that are incompatible with standard measures of cross‐correlational significance, but which can be largely removed by averaging over solar cycles and first‐difference detrending. Treated data show an expected statistically‐significant correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, Pearson p < 10 −4 , but correlations between global temperature and sunspot number (geomagnetic activity) are not significant, p = 0.9954, ( p = 0.8171). In other words, straightforward analysis does not support widely‐cited suggestions that these data record a prominent role for solar‐terrestrial interaction in global climate change. With respect to the sunspot‐number, geomagnetic‐activity, and global‐temperature data, three alternative hypotheses remain difficult to reject: (1) the role of solar‐terrestrial interaction in recent climate change is contained wholly in long‐term trends and not in any shorter‐term secular variation, or, (2) an anthropogenic signal is hiding correlation between solar‐terrestrial variables and global temperature, or, (3) the null hypothesis, recent climate change has not been influenced by solar‐terrestrial interaction.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2005

Evidence for a global seismic-moment release sequence

Temporal clustering of the larger earthquakes (foreshock-mainshock-aftershock) followed by relative quiescence (stress shadow) are characteristic of seismic cycles along plate boundaries. A global seismic-moment release history, based on a little more than 100 years of instrumental earthquake data in an extended version of the catalog of Pacheco and Sykes (1992), illustrates similar behavior for Earth as a whole. Although the largest earthquakes have occurred in the circum-Pacific region, an analysis of moment release in the hemisphere antipodal to the Pacific plate shows a very similar pattern. Monte Carlo simulations confirm that the global temporal clustering of great shallow earthquakes during 1952-1964 at M ??? 9.0 is highly significant (4% random probability) as is the clustering of the events of M ??? 8.6 (0.2% random probability) during 1950-1965. We have extended the Pacheco and Sykes (1992) catalog from 1989 through 2001 using Harvard moment centroid data. Immediately after the 1950-1965 cluster, significant quiescence at and above M 8.4 begins and continues until 2001 (0.5% random probability). In alternative catalogs derived by correcting for possible random errors in magnitude estimates in the extended Pacheco-Sykes catalog, the clustering of M ??? 9 persists at a significant level. These observations indicate that, for great earthquakes, Earth behaves as a coherent seismotectonic system. A very-large-scale mechanism for global earthquake triggering and/or stress transfer is implied. There are several candidates, but so far only viscoelastic relaxation has been modeled on a global scale.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2004

Losses to single-family housing from ground motions in the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

The distributions of insured losses to single-family housing following the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake for 234 ZIP codes can be satisfactorily modeled with gamma distributions. Regressions of the parameters in the gamma distribution on estimates of ground motion, derived from ShakeMap estimates or from interpolated observations, provide a basis for developing curves of conditional probability of loss given a ground motion. Comparison of the resulting estimates of aggregate loss with the actual aggregate loss gives satisfactory agreement for several different ground-motion parameters. Estimates of loss based on a deterministic spatial model of the earthquake ground motion, using standard attenuation relationships and NEHRP soil factors, give satisfactory results for some ground-motion parameters if the input ground motions are increased about one and one-half standard deviations above the median, reflecting the fact that the ground motions for the Northridge earthquake tended to be higher than the median ground motion for other earthquakes with similar magnitude. The results give promise for making estimates of insured losses to a similar building stock under future earthquake loading. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2003

Association of earthquakes and faults in the San Francisco Bay area using Bayesian inference

Bayesian inference provides a method to use seismic intensity data or instrumental locations, together with geologic and seismologic data, to make quantitative estimates of the probabilities that specific past earthquakes are associated with specific faults. Probability density functions are constructed for the location of each earthquake, and these are combined with prior probabilities through Bayes' theorem to estimate the probability that an earthquake is associated with a specific fault. Results using this method are presented here for large, preinstrumental, historical earthquakes and for recent earthquakes with instrumental locations in the San Francisco Bay region. The probabilities for individual earthquakes can be summed to construct a probabilistic frequency–magnitude relationship for a fault segment. Other applications of the technique include the estimation of the probability of background earthquakes, that is, earthquakes not associated with known or considered faults, and the estimation of the fraction of the total seismic moment associated with earthquakes less than the characteristic magnitude. Results for the San Francisco Bay region suggest that potentially damaging earthquakes with magnitudes less than the characteristic magnitudes should be expected. Comparisons of earthquake locations and the surface traces of active faults as determined from geologic data show significant disparities, indicating that a complete understanding of the relationship between earthquakes and faults remains elusive.

California↗
USGS2001

Spatial correlation of probabilistic earthquake ground motion and loss

Spatial correlation of annual earthquake ground motions and losses can be used to estimate the variance of annual losses to a portfolio of properties exposed to earthquakes A direct method is described for the calculations of the spatial correlation of earthquake ground motions and losses. Calculations for the direct method can be carried out using either numerical quadrature or a discrete, matrix-based approach. Numerical results for this method are compared with those calculated from a simple Monte Carlo simulation. Spatial correlation of ground motion and loss is induced by the systematic attenuation of ground motion with distance from the source, by common site conditions, and by the finite length of fault ruptures. Spatial correlation is also strongly dependent on the partitioning of the variability, given an event, into interevent and intraevent components. Intraevent variability reduces the spatial correlation of losses. Interevent variability increases spatial correlation of losses. The higher the spatial correlation, the larger the variance in losses to a port-folio, and the more likely extreme values become. This result underscores the importance of accurately determining the relative magnitudes of intraevent and interevent variability in ground-motion studies, because of the strong impact in estimating earthquake losses to a portfolio. The direct method offers an alternative to simulation for calculating the variance of losses to a portfolio, which may reduce the amount of calculation required.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2000

USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed new probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. These hazard maps form the basis of the probabilistic component of the design maps used in the 1997 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and Other Structures , prepared by the Building Seismic Safety Council and published by FEMA. The hazard maps depict peak horizontal ground acceleration and spectral response at 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 sec periods, with 10%, 5%, and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to return times of about 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. In this paper we outline the methodology used to construct the hazard maps. There are three basic components to the maps. First, we use spatially smoothed historic seismicity as one portion of the hazard calculation. In this model, we apply the general observation that moderate and large earthquakes tend to occur near areas of previous small or moderate events, with some notable exceptions. Second, we consider large background source zones based on broad geologic criteria to quantify hazard in areas with little or no historic seismicity, but with the potential for generating large events. Third, we include the hazard from specific fault sources. We use about 450 faults in the western United States (WUS) and derive recurrence times from either geologic slip rates or the dating of pre-historic earthquakes from trenching of faults or other paleoseismic methods. Recurrence estimates for large earthquakes in New Madrid and Charleston, South Carolina, were taken from recent paleoliquefaction studies. We used logic trees to incorporate different seismicity models, fault recurrence models, Cascadia great earthquake scenarios, and ground-motion attenuation relations. We present disaggregation plots showing the contribution to hazard at four cities from potential earthquakes with various magnitudes and distances.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS1996

Monte Carlo simulation of peak-acceleration attenuation using a finite-fault uniform-patch model including isochrone and extremal characteristics

A finite-fault statistical model of the earthquake source is used to confirm observed magnitude and distance saturation scaling in a large peak-acceleration data set. This model allows us to determine the form of peak-acceleration attenuation curves without a priori assumptions about their shape or scaling properties. The source is composed of patches having uniform size and statistical properties. The primary source parameters are the patch peak-acceleration distribution mean, the distribution standard deviation, the patch size, and patch-rupture duration. Although our model assumes no scaling of peak acceleration with magnitude at the patch, the peak-acceleration attenuation curves, nevertheless, strongly scale with magnitude ( da p /dM ) ≠ 0, and the scaling is distance dependent ( da p /dM ) ∝ f ( r ).

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS1990

Probabilistic earthquake acceleration and velocity maps for the United States and Puerto Rico

The ground-motion maps presented here (maps A-D) show the expected seismic induced or earthquake caused maximum horizontal acceleration and velocity in rock in the contiguous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. There is a 90 percent probability that the maximum horizontal acceleration and velocity shown on the maps will not be exceeded in the time periods of 50 and 250 years (average return period for the expected ground motion of 474 and 2,372 years). Rock is taken here to mean material having a shear-wave velocity of between 0.75 and 0.90 kilometers per second. (Algermissen and Perkins, 1976).

Miscellaneous Field Studies Map↗
USGS1984

A comparative ground response study near Los Angeles using recordings of Nevada nuclear tests and the 1971 San Fernando earthquake

A comparative ground response study at sites in the Los Angeles region is based on the extensive strong-motion data set recorded in the 1971 San Fernando earthquake and 159 three-component recordings of distant nuclear tests in Nevada. Amplitude spectral ratios computed for the nuclear test data over those frequency bands for which there is an adequate signal-to-noise ratio provide statistically stable estimates of the local ground response related to the type of local geologic conditions. Comparison of the strong-motion data recorded from the 1971 San Fernando earthquake with that recorded at 28 of the same sites for the nuclear tests show that the corresponding amplitude spectral ratios are statistically equivalent for most sites, provided reference stations are chosen to minimize effects on the earthquake data of azimuthal source variations and crustal propagation path. Statistical equivalence of the spectral ratios for the two types of data sources suggests that amplitude spectral ratios computed with respect to the appropriate reference station provide a first-order estimate of local ground response.

California↗
USGS1984

A seismic hazard map of India and adjacent areas

We have produced a probabilistic seismic hazard map showing peak ground accelerations in rock for India and neighboring areas having a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years. Seismogenic zones were identified on the basis of historical seismicity, seismotectonics and geology of the region. Procedures for reducing the incompleteness of earthquake catalogs were followed before estimating recurrence parameters. An eastern United States acceleration attenuation relationship was employed after it was found that intensity attenuation for the Indian region and the eastern United States was similar. The largest probabilistic accelerations are obtained in the seismotectonic belts of Kirthar, Hindukush, Himalaya, Arakan-Yoma, and the Shillong massif where values of over 70% g have been calculated.

Tectonophysics↗