Parkfield earthquake prediction scenarios and response plans
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C.E. Mortensen
Publications and source records attributed to C.E. Mortensen.
Preliminary results from comparisons of redundant tiltmeters at three sites in central California
The U.S. Geological Survey has been operating a network of shallow-borehole tiltmeters in central California since June 1973. At six sites redundant instruments have been installed as a check on data coherency. These include the Sage Ranch, Tres Pinos, New Idria, Aromas, Bear Valley and San Juan Bautista tiltmeter sites. Preliminary results from the comparison of redundant data from the Aromas, Bear Valley and San Juan Bautista sites for periods of eight, three and seven months respectively, suggest that short period tilt signals in the range 5 min < T < 3–5 h and ranging in amplitude from 5 · 10 −8 to 10 −6 rad, but not including step offsets, show excellent agreement on closely spaced instruments. Agreement is not as good in this period range for instruments at San Juan Bautista with a separation of 200 m. Signals of interest observed in this period range include coseismic tilts, teleseisms and tilts associated with creep events. Tilt signals in the period range 3–5 h < T < 2– 5 weeks are not always coherent at all three of the redundant tilt sites studied. Tilt signals in this period range have amplitudes up to 5 · 10 −6 rad and wavelengths down to at least the instrument separation at the closely spaced sites (~several meters). Regarding longerterm coherency, the instruments at San Juan Bautista with 200-m spacing, agree within 0.5 μrad for the N-S component and 0.7 jurad for the E-W component for a period of two months. The closely spaced redundant instruments at Aromas agree within 2 μrad for the N-S component and 1 μrad for the E-W component for the eight-month period of operation. Data from the three sites have been checked for effects of temperature, atmospheric pressure and rainfall. The latter appears to be critically site dependent. The worst case tilts for 1 inch of rainfall can be more than 1 jurad with a duration of a few days to a week. Typical rain-induced tilts are less than 0.3 μrad for 1 inch of rain. The two instruments at the Sage Ranch site have been in operation for the longest period. However, they have shown local site or ground instability, high drift and lack of coherency since installation. Data are not yet available from the Tres Pinos or New Idria instruments. Deeper installation appears necessary for these instruments and two alternative methods of tiltmeter emplacement are currently being tested in an attempt to evaluate the depth, spatial and temporal dependency of surface tilt sources.
California↗
Continuous tilt, strain, and magnetic field measurements near four earthquakes (ML = 3.6 to 3.8) on the San Andreas fault, California
Four moderate earthquakes (M = 3.6 to 3.8) have occurred on the San Andreas fault in central California since October, 1977. These earthquakes are the first since 1974 to occur at this magnitude level within the array of tilt, strain, and magnetic instruments between Chalome (35.726N, 12.249 W) and San Francisco (37.79N, 122.23W) shown in Figure 1. They offer, therefore, one of the few opportunities to search for indications of precursive ground deformation. Furthermore, several other geophysical parameters such as resistivity, creek, radon, seismicity, geodetic strain, etc, are also monitored and allow comparisons for some of these events. This note reports comparative data and some possible implications in continuous strain, tilt, magnetic field and other measurements obtained from instruments within 10 km of the epicenters.
California↗
The nature of surface tilt along 85 km of the San Andreas fault-preliminary results form a 14-instrument array
The continuous monitoring of surface deformation near active faults is clearly necessary for an understanding of elastic strain accumulation and elastic and anelastic strain release associated with earthquakes. Fourteen 2-component tiltmeters have been installed in shallow boreholes along 85 km of the currently most active section of the San Andreas fault in the western United States. These instruments operate at a sensitivity of 10 −8 radians. Five of these tiltmeters, extending along one 35 km section of the fault, have been in operation since June 1973. The results indicate that regional tectonic tilting has occurred before more than ten individual earthquakes or groups of earthquakes with epicenters within ten earthquake source dimensions of one or more instruments. This tilting has a time scale of up to a month depending on earthquake magnitude. The amplitude of these tilts exceeds by almost an order of magnitude that expected from a dislocation model of the source using seismically determined parameters. No indication of rapid or accelerated tilt just prior to these earthquakes has been seen.
California↗
Tilt precursors before earthquakes on the San Andreas fault, California
An array of 14 biaxial shallow-borehole tiltmeters (at 10-7 radian sensitivity) has been installed along 85 kilometers of the San Andreas fault during the past year. Earthquake-related changes in tilt have been simultaneously observed on up to four independent instruments. At earthquake distances greater than 10 earthquake source dimensions, there are few clear indications of tilt change. For the four instruments with the longest records (>10 months), 26 earthquakes have occurred since July 1973 with at least one instrument closer than 10 source dimensions and 8 earthquakes with more than one instrument within that distance. Precursors in tilt direction have been observed before more than 10 earthquakes or groups of earthquakes, and no similar effect has yet been seen without the occurrence of an earthquake.
California↗