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Barry Voight

Publications and source records attributed to Barry Voight.

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Directed blasts and blast-generated pyroclastic density currents: a comparison of the Bezymianny 1956, Mount St Helens 1980, and Soufrière Hills, Montserrat 1997 eruptions and deposits

We compare eruptive dynamics, effects and deposits of the Bezymianny 1956 (BZ), Mount St Helens 1980 (MSH), and Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat 1997 (SHV) eruptions, the key events of which included powerful directed blasts. Each blast subsequently generated a high-energy stratified pyroclastic density current (PDC) with a high speed at onset. The blasts were triggered by rapid unloading of an extruding or intruding shallow magma body (lava dome and/or cryptodome) of andesitic or dacitic composition. The unloading was caused by sector failures of the volcanic edifices, with respective volumes for BZ, MSH, and SHV c. 0.5, 2.5, and 0.05 km 3 . The blasts devastated approximately elliptical areas, axial directions of which coincided with the directions of sector failures. We separate the transient directed blast phenomenon into three main parts, the burst phase, the collapse phase, and the PDC phase. In the burst phase the pressurized mixture is driven by initial kinetic energy and expands rapidly into the atmosphere, with much of the expansion having an initially lateral component. The erupted material fails to mix with sufficient air to form a buoyant column, but in the collapse phase, falls beyond the source as an inclined fountain, and thereafter generates a PDC moving parallel to the ground surface. It is possible for the burst phase to comprise an overpressured jet, which requires injection of momentum from an orifice; however some exploding sources may have different geometry and a jet is not necessarily formed. A major unresolved question is whether the preponderance of strong damage observed in the volcanic blasts should be attributed to shock waves within an overpressured jet, or alternatively to dynamic pressures and shocks within the energetic collapse and PDC phases. Internal shock structures related to unsteady flow and compressibility effects can occur in each phase. We withhold judgment about published shock models as a primary explanation for the damage sustained at MSH until modern 3D numerical modeling is accomplished, but argue that much of the damage observed in directed blasts can be reasonably interpreted to have been caused by high dynamic pressures and clast impact loading by an inclined collapsing fountain and stratified PDC. This view is reinforced by recent modeling cited for SHV. In distal and peripheral regions, solids concentration, maximum particle size, current speed, and dynamic pressure are diminished, resulting in lesser damage and enhanced influence by local topography on the PDC. Despite the different scales of the blasts (devastated areas were respectively 500, 600, and >10 km 2 for BZ, MSH, and SHV), and some complexity involving retrogressive slide blocks and clusters of explosions, their pyroclastic deposits demonstrate strong similarity. Juvenile material composes >50% of the deposits, implying for the blasts a dominantly magmatic mechanism although hydrothermal explosions also occurred. The character of the magma fragmented by explosions (highly viscous, phenocryst-rich, variable microlite content) determined the bimodal distributions of juvenile clast density and vesicularity. Thickness of the deposits fluctuates in proximal areas but in general decreases with distance from the crater, and laterally from the axial region. The proximal stratigraphy of the blast deposits comprises four layers named A, B, C, D from bottom to top. Layer A is represented by very poorly sorted debris with admixtures of vegetation and soil, with a strongly erosive ground contact; its appearance varies at different sites due to different ground conditions at the time of the blasts. The layer reflects intense turbulent boundary shear between the basal part of the energetic head of the PDC and the substrate. Layer B exhibits relatively well-sorted fines depleted debris with some charred plant fragments; its deposition occurred by rapid suspension sedimentation in rapidly waning, high-concentration conditions. Layer C is mainly a poorly sorted massive layer enriched by fines with its uppermost part laminated, created by rapid sedimentation under moderate-concentration, weakly tractive conditions, with the uppermost laminated part reflecting a dilute depositional regime with grain-by-grain traction deposition. By analogy to laboratory experiments, mixing at the flow head of the PDC created a turbulent dilute wake above the body of a gravity current, with layer B deposited by the flow body and layer C by the wake. The uppermost layer D of fines and accretionary lapilli is an ash fallout deposit of the finest particles from the high-rising buoyant thermal plume derived from the sediment-depleted pyroclastic density current. The strong similarity among these eruptions and their deposits suggests that these cases represent similar source, transport and depositional phenomena.

Bezymianny, Mount St Helens, Soufriere Hills

Graphical and PC-software analysis of volcano eruption precursors according to the Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM)

The Materials Failure Forecasting Method for volcanic eruptions (FFM) analyses the rate of precursory phenomena. Time of eruption onset is derived from the time of “failure” implied by accelerating rate of deformation. The approach attempts to fit data, Ω, to the differential relationship Ω &#x3A9; &#xA8; = A &#x3A9; &#x2D9; "> ¨ = AΩ˙ , where the dot superscript represents the time derivative, and the data Ω may be any of several parameters describing the accelerating deformation or energy release of the volcanic system. Rate coefficients, A and α, may be derived from appropriate data sets to provide an estimate of time to “failure”. As the method is still an experimental technique, it should be used with appropriate judgment during times of volcanic crisis. Limitations of the approach are identified and discussed. Several kinds of eruption precursory phenomena, all simulating accelerating creep during the mechanical deformation of the system, can be used with FFM. Among these are tilt data, slope-distance measurements, crater fault movements and seismicity. The use of seismic coda, seismic amplitude-derived energy release and time-integrated amplitudes or coda lengths are examined. Usage of cumulative coda length directly has some practical advantages to more rigorously derived parameters, and RSAM and SSAM technologies appear to be well suited to real-time applications. One graphical and four numerical techniques of applying FFM are discussed. The graphical technique is based on an inverse representation of rate versus time. For α = 2, the inverse rate plot is linear; it is concave upward for α < 2 and concave downward for α > 2. The eruption time is found by simple extrapolation of the data set toward the time axis. Three numerical techniques are based on linear least-squares fits to linearized data sets. The “linearized least-squares technique” is most robust and is expected to be the most practical numerical technique. This technique is based on an iterative linearization of the given rate-time series. The hindsight technique is disadvantaged by a bias favouring a too early eruption time in foresight applications. The “log rate versus log acceleration technique”, utilizing a logarithmic representation of the fundamental differential equation, is disadvantaged by large data scatter after interpolation of accelerations. One further numerical technique, a nonlinear least-squares fit to rate data, requires special and more complex software. PC-oriented computer codes were developed for data manipulation, application of the three linearizing numerical methods, and curve fitting. Separate software is required for graphing purposes. All three linearizing techniques facilitate an eruption window based on a data envelope according to the linear least-squares fit, at a specific level of confidence, and an estimated rate at time of failure.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

The effects of ground water, slope stability, and seismic hazard on the stability of the South Fork Castle Creek blockage in the Mount St. Helens area, Washington

A slope stability analysis on the South Fork Castle Creek debris avalanche blockage, near Mount St. Helens, Washington, was conducted to determine the likelihood of mass failure of the blockage and resultant breakout of South Fork Castle Creek Lake. On the basis of material properties, groundwater levels, and seismic history of the blockage, slope stability with and without earthquake-induced forces was determined. Results indicated that the blockage will not fail from gravitational forces at September 1983 groundwater levels. An increase of 25 feet or more in water levels could cause local failures, but massive failure of the blockage is improbable. Blockage slopes are potentially unstable for present and higher water levels if an earthquake with magnitude greater than 6.0 should occur. Retrogressive slope failures are possible, but lowering of the blockage crest below lake level and consequent lake breakout are considered remote. Significant earthquake shaking could cause cracks in the blockage that might facilitate piping.

Washington