Geology topics

Amanda M. Thomas

Publications and source records attributed to Amanda M. Thomas.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

CRESCENT earthquake dynamic rupture, earthquake cycle, and tsunami code verification platform

Physics-based simulations are critical for understanding natural hazards. The increasing complexity of numerical codes requires benchmark exercises to verify that different computational methods yield consistent results when solving the same governing equations. Here, we present an open-access web platform designed for the verification of earthquake dynamic rupture, seismic cycle, and tsunami simulations. The platform architecture utilizes a modular, serverless backend on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to provide scalable file processing and visualization. A lightweight static web application provides a secure interface for uploading and managing results, while the browser-based data visualization enables interactive analysis of time series and surface grid data. By using structured JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) text files to define benchmark structures, the system remains fully extensible, allowing the addition of new scenarios without modifying the underlying software logic. The platform hosts the "The Tsunami Problem Versions" (TTPV) 1 & 2, two benchmarks for 3D fully coupled earthquake dynamic rupture and tsunami generation, and provides a framework for earthquake cycle models. This community resource aims to build trust in numerical simulations and facilitate long-term collaborative code verification as modeling software continues to evolve.

Seismica↗

USGS2026

Detecting earthquakes in noisy real-time GNSS data with deep learning for improved PGD magnitude estimation

To disseminate accurate and useful warnings, earthquake early warning (EEW) systems must quickly determine the size and location of an earthquake to estimate expected shaking. Traditional seismic‐based algorithms tend to underestimate the true magnitudes of large earthquakes, a phenomenon known as magnitude saturation. This limitation motivated the recent inclusion of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) data into the U.S. Geological Survey’s ShakeAlert EEW system with the Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time (GFAST) algorithm because GNSS data do not saturate with large ground motions. However, the noise levels of GNSS data are very high compared with traditional seismic data, which obscures P ‐wave arrivals and can result in less accurate magnitude estimations if displacement amplitudes are low, such as for lower magnitude earthquakes or large source–station distances. In this study, we develop a deep‐learning model that detects earthquakes in GNSS data and use the Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence as a case study to demonstrate how the model could act as a filter to reduce the amount of low‐quality data that enters an algorithm like GFAST. To preserve our limited real earthquake data for model inference, we generated a training dataset composed of >700,000 synthetic displacement waveforms. We combined the synthetic waveforms with real‐time GNSS noise to produce realistically noisy training waveforms and then tested our model on additional synthetic data and performed inference using the real data that were held back. We discuss the performance of our trained model on both the unseen synthetic data and real inference data. Our model can be used to selectively filter only high‐quality data where an earthquake signal is observed for input into an algorithm like GFAST (outperforming a simple signal‐to‐noise ratio–based filter) to reduce the error in GFAST’s real‐time earthquake magnitude estimations.

California↗

USGS2026

The Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT): Advancing understanding of Cascadia's earthquake hazards

The Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) is capable of producing large megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis, posing significant risks to the Pacific Northwest. This paper examines the seismic characteristics of the CSZ, including its offshore coupling, sparse seismicity, and a complex paleoseismic record. While recent advances in geophysical methods and data collection have improved our understanding of subduction zone processes, important uncertainties remain regarding rupture dynamics, ground shaking, and tsunami impacts. The Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT) has been established to address these challenges through coordinated research, education, and community engagement. By integrating scientific studies, fostering collaboration, and leveraging new technologies, CRESCENT seeks to improve hazard assessment and resilience in the region. This paper outlines the primary challenges and opportunities in advancing subduction zone science and enhancing societal preparedness for future CSZ events.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2026

Cascadia Subduction Zone science: Call for the next generation community seismic velocity model

The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) hosts major seismic and tsunami hazards, yet key questions persist about the relationship between margin structure, fluid distribution, episodic tremor and slip, shallow megathrust behavior, shaking and tsunamigenesis, and the resulting hazard estimates. Addressing these problems requires an empirically grounded, three‐dimensional seismic velocity model to illuminate subsurface structure and properties and to provide a basis for geophysical studies such as earthquake simulations and ground‐motion estimation. In May 2024, the National Science Foundation‐funded Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT) community velocity model (CVM) working group, with U.S. Geological Survey and regional partners, convened a workshop to identify priorities for such a model. Participants emphasized the features necessary for addressing key science questions, including implementing findability, accessibility, interoperability, and reusability (FAIR) access, capturing along‐strike and along‐dip structural heterogeneity, resolving shallow offshore–onshore structure, constraining elastic properties and quantifying their uncertainties for numerical wave propagation simulations, their validation benchmarks, and supporting associated accurate earthquake ground‐motion simulations and hazard assessments. This article describes the priorities defined in the workshop, and a description of how, guided by these needs, CRESCENT plans to develop multiple generations of a CVM to advance CSZ science and improve seismic and tsunami hazard modeling across the Pacific Northwest. The CVM will span the CSZ from the surface to ∼100 km depth, offshore and east of the Cascades into Idaho (∼132°–110° W) and the southern and northern tectonic regime transitions (∼36°–52° N) to capture the entire tectonic system as well as its surroundings.

Cascadia Subduction Zone↗

USGS2026

Quantifying seismic properties of a river channel at Mount Rainier for use in debris flow monitoring and analysis

Theoretical models that relate debris flow properties to their seismic signature suggest seismic methods may be used to remotely characterize properties of these events. However, the complexity of debris flow sources and poorly constrained material properties in near‐surface environments limit our ability to determine important attributes of debris flows, such as volume and particle size distribution, from seismic records alone. In this study, we explore the sensitivity of debris flow seismic signals to subsurface seismic characteristics using an established debris flow seismicity model and subsurface properties derived from active‐source measurements in the Tahoma Creek stream channel at Mount Rainier, United States. Using refraction and multichannel analysis of surface waves, we estimate 1D primary and secondary wave velocity profiles to a depth of 11 m and calculate the frequency‐varying phase velocity ( ⁠⁠ v c ) and Rayleigh‐wave quality factor (Q R ⁠⁠ ) for frequencies between 9 and 50 Hz. We find that the Tahoma Creek stream channel has low v c ⁠ , varying with frequency between 226 and 434 m/s, and is highly attenuating, with Q R estimated below 13.3 at all analyzed frequencies. We model the seismic signal of a hypothetical debris flow in Tahoma Creek using our measured values and compare the results against the same model but varying v c and Q R over a range of frequency‐independent, single values commonly used in the literature when measurements are not available ( ⁠⁠ v c = 250-750 m/s, Q R = 3-33 ⁠ ). We find that the power spectral densities of the modeled debris flows vary by orders of magnitude within the subset of our test values, highlighting the benefits of measuring material properties when using modeled debris flow seismic signals for quantitative monitoring.

Washington↗

USGS2026

Low-frequency earthquakes track the motion of a captured slab fragment

Accurate tectonic models are essential for assessing seismic hazard and fault interactions. However, the plate configuration at the complex Mendocino triple junction, where the San Andreas Fault and the Cascadia subduction zone meet, remains uncertain. We analyzed fault slip associated with a recently identified zone of tectonic tremor and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) near the southern edge of the subducting Gorda slab. Based on tidal sensitivity and P-wave first motions, we show that the LFEs are generated by dipping, strike-slip motion. This suggests that a former Farallon slab fragment, now captured by the Pacific plate, is translating northward beneath westernmost North America. This geometry effectively extends the slab interface fault, challenging prevailing interpretations of slab window formation and creating a potential unaccounted earthquake hazard in this region.

Science↗

USGS2025

Magmatic volatile flux drives non-eruptive volcano-tectonic seismicity at Mount St. Helens, USA from 2008-2024

Seismicity during non-eruptive periods is useful for observing stress changes related to magmatic transport and volatile exsolution within active volcanoes. Mount St. Helens in Washington, USA, is the most active volcano in the continental United States and has been in quiescence since 2008. To explore the processes driving seismicity at Mount St. Helens, we create a high-resolution seismicity catalog of non-eruptive seismicity from 2008 through 2023, consisting of 31,133 events. We find persistent shallow seismicity (−2.2 to 2 km below sea level (BSL), 0–4.2 km below the surface) throughout the entire study period that concentrates beneath the dacite dome complex from the 1980–1986 and 2004–2008 eruptions. Additionally, there is frequent deeper seismicity (2–8 km BSL, 4.2–12.2 km below the surface) beginning in 2016. We examine a selection of deep earthquake swarms and find complex along-depth seismicity patterns. Within swarms, increases in shallow seismicity rates can precede or are concurrent with increases of deep seismicity rates. Lastly, we discover a series of semi-periodic, shallow, burst-like swarms, consisting of low-amplitude, repetitive similar earthquakes, indicating periodic valve-like release of fluid pressure from the conduit. Increased seismic activity beginning in 2016 indicates ongoing repressurization within the magmatic system driven by recharge or crystallization-induced second boiling within the upper-crustal reservoir after 2008. The data indicate that non-eruptive seismicity at Mount St. Helens is controlled by fluid pressure changes from gas flux sourced from the magma reservoir that migrates through crack networks.

Washington↗

USGS2025

Rapid fault healing from cementation controls the dynamics of deep slow slip and tremor

Despite its status as one of the most important discoveries in geophysics, the physical mechanism(s) responsible for slow slip events (SSEs) are not well understood. Here, we synthesize observations of deep SSEs in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and argue that rapid, cohesive fault strengthening may control the dynamics of deep SSEs. Cohesive strength is frequently ignored in constitutive laws used to describe fault rheology in numerical simulations of earthquakes and SSEs alike. To demonstrate its importance, we perform and analyze a suite of petrological experiments that simulate fault healing under representative pressure and temperature conditions. We show that significant cohesive strength recovery caused by dissolution-precipitation processes occurs on timescales of just a few hours. Together, our experimental and observational results support the idea that cohesion is a key component of fault strength under SSE conditions and highlight the need for its inclusion in both future experiments and numerical models of fault slip.

British Columbia, Washington↗

USGS2025

A northeast-dipping zone of low frequency earthquakes at the southern edge of Cascadia subduction

Tectonic tremor monitoring occasionally detects events in an anomalous zone in southern Cascadia, 50–100 km west of the main tremor band, near the expected southern edge of the subducting Gorda slab at the Mendocino triple junction. To investigate the geometry and temporal behavior of this tremor, we examine its constituent low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) by developing 27 stacked LFE waveform templates that we use to detect events from 2018 to 2024. We then relocate LFE sources together with regional seismicity. We find that LFE hypocenters form a northeast-dipping alignment at 22–29 km depth, extending eastward from a zone of micro-earthquakes, ∼15 km south of the southern edge of Gorda slab seismicity. These LFE families exhibit small bursts of activity every few days. Considering the strong world-wide association of tremor and LFEs with high slip-rate, plate-bounding faults, we hypothesize these LFEs may demark the southern edge of Cascadia subduction.

California↗

USGS2022

Revisiting the depth distribution of seismicity before and after the 2004–2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens

Hypocenter estimation at active volcanoes improves our understanding of their magmatic systems and indicates changing conditions at depth for continuously monitored volcanoes. The most active volcano in the Cascades Range, Mount St. Helens, has a multi-decadal earthquake catalog and it shows an apparent change in the depth distribution of seismicity before and after the 2004–2008 dome-building eruption and unrest sequence. We use two new resources to evaluate the accuracy of hypocenters and consequently the change in depth distribution of seismicity before and after the 2004–2008 eruption. First, we deployed a dense array of 136 three-component nodal seismographs for one month in 2017, including sub-arrays on the newly extruded dome and crater floor. Second, for events recorded during this month, we located their hypocenters using a three-dimensional (3D) wavefront-tracking location solver and a recently developed tomography model derived from active and passive source data. The relocated hypocenters are generally shallower and more concentrated beneath the crater compared to their catalog locations. The mean hypocenter movement from catalog locations is 2.86 km, with an averaged depth shift of 2.53 km upward. Comparison between 2017 hypocenters located using all of the available phase picks and those located using only the catalog picks from the permanent network suggests the improved hypocenters mostly resulted from the location solver and the 3D velocity model, with smaller changes due to the dense three-component array. Applying the same hypocenter estimation method to phase picks for all events from 1997 to 2004 and 2008–2021, we found a concentration of seismicity between sea level and ~ 1 km above it before and after the 2004–2008 eruption. The new results suggest that the seismogenic structure in the shallow magmatic system quickly re-equilibrated to its earlier state after the dome-building eruption.

Washington↗

USGS2020

Using a dense seismic array to determine structure and site effects of the Two Towers earthflow in northern California

We deployed a network of 68 three-component geophones on the slow moving Two Towers earthflow in northern California. We compute horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs) from the ambient seismic field. The HVSRs have two prominent peaks, one near 1.23 Hz and another between 4 and 8 Hz at most stations. The 1.23 Hz resonance is a property of the background noise field and may be due to a velocity contrast at a few hundred meters depth. We interpret the higher frequency peaks as being related to slide deposits and invert the spectral ratios for shallow velocity structure using in situ thickness measurements as a priori constraints on the inversion. The thickness of the shallowest, low-velocity layer is systematically larger than landslide thicknesses inferred from inclinometer data acquired since 2013. Given constraints from field observations and boreholes, the inversion may reflect the thickness of deposits of an older slide that is larger in spatial extent and depth than the currently active slide. Because the HVSR peaks measured at Two Towers are caused by shallow slide deposits and represent frequencies that will experience amplification during earthquakes, the depth of the actively sliding mass may be less relevant for assessing potential slide volume and associated hazard than the thicknesses determined by our inversions. More generally, our results underscore the utility of combining both geotechnical measurements and subsurface imaging for landslide characterization and hazard assessment.

California↗

USGS2020

Deep long-period earthquakes generated by second boiling beneath Mauna Kea volcano

Deep long-period earthquakes (DLPs) are an enigmatic type of volcanic seismicity that sometimes precedes eruptions but mostly occurs at quiescent volcanoes. These earthquakes are depleted in high-frequency content and typically occur near the base of the crust. We observed a near-periodic, long- lived sequence of more than one million DLPs in the past 19 years beneath the dormant postshield Mauna Kea volcano in Hawai‘i. We argue that this DLP sequence was caused by repeated pressurization of volatiles exsolved through crystallization of cooling magma stalled beneath the crust. This “second boiling” of magma is a well-known process but has not previously been linked to DLP activity. Our observations suggest that, rather than portending eruptions, global DLP activity may more commonly be indicative of stagnant, cooling magma.

Hawaii↗

USGS2018

Using tectonic tremor to constrain seismic‐wave attenuation in Cascadia

Tectonic tremor can be used to constrain seismic‐wave attenuation for use in ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in regions where moderately sized earthquakes occur infrequently. Here we quantify seismic‐wave attenuation by inverting tremor ground motion amplitudes in different frequency bands of interest, to determine frequency dependence of and spatial variations in seismic‐wave attenuation in Cascadia. Due to the density of tremor data, we are able to resolve along‐strike variations in the attenuation parameter. We find that tectonic tremor exhibits the frequency dependence expected for attenuation, as determined from GMPEs developed from moderate‐to‐large magnitude earthquakes. This implies that attenuation along these paths is independent of the source mechanism. This study demonstrates that tectonic tremor can be used to provide insight into the physical factors responsible for attenuation, and to refine estimates of attenuation for ground‐motion prediction, thus having important implications for hazard assessment and engineering seismology.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2018

Constraints on friction, dilatancy, diffusivity, and effective stress from low-frequency earthquake rates on the deep San Andreas Fault

Families of recurring low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) within nonvolcanic tremor on the San Andreas Fault in central California are sensitive to tidal stresses. LFEs occur at all levels of the tides, are strongly correlated and in phase with the ~200 Pa shear stresses, and weakly and not systematically correlated with the ~2 kPa tidal normal stresses. We assume that LFEs are small sources that repeatedly fail during shear within a much larger scale, aseismically slipping fault zone and consider two different models of the fault slip: (1) modulation of the fault slip rate by the tidal stresses or (2) episodic slip, triggered by the tides. LFEs are strongly clustered with duration much shorter than the semidiurnal tide; they cannot be significantly modulated on that time scale. The recurrence times of clusters, however, are many times longer than the semidiurnal, leading to an appearance of tidal triggering. In this context we examine the predictions of laboratory-observed triggered frictional (dilatant) fault slip. The undrained end-member model produces no sensitivity to the tidal normal stress, and slip onsets are in phase with the tidal shear stress. The tidal correlation constrains the diffusivity to be less than ~1 × 10 −6 /s and the product of the friction and dilatancy coefficients to be at most 5 × 10 −7 , orders of magnitude smaller than observed at room temperature. In the absence of dilatancy the effective normal stress at failure would be about ~55 kPa. For this model the observations require intrinsic weakness, low dilatancy, and lithostatic pore fluid.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2017

Imaging shear strength along subduction faults

Subduction faults accumulate stress during long periods of time and release this stress suddenly, during earthquakes, when it reaches a threshold. This threshold, the shear strength, controls the occurrence and magnitude of earthquakes. We consider a 3-D model to derive an analytical expression for how the shear strength depends on the fault geometry, the convergence obliquity, frictional properties, and the stress field orientation. We then use estimates of these different parameters in Japan to infer the distribution of shear strength along a subduction fault. We show that the 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku earthquake ruptured a fault portion characterized by unusually small variations in static shear strength. This observation is consistent with the hypothesis that large earthquakes preferentially rupture regions with relatively homogeneous shear strength. With increasing constraints on the different parameters at play, our approach could, in the future, help identify favorable locations for large earthquakes.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2016

Constraints on the source parameters of low-frequency earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault

Low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) are small repeating earthquakes that occur in conjunction with deep slow slip. Like typical earthquakes, LFEs are thought to represent shear slip on crustal faults, but when compared to earthquakes of the same magnitude, LFEs are depleted in high-frequency content and have lower corner frequencies, implying longer duration. Here we exploit this difference to estimate the duration of LFEs on the deep San Andreas Fault (SAF). We find that the M ~ 1 LFEs have typical durations of ~0.2 s. Using the annual slip rate of the deep SAF and the average number of LFEs per year, we estimate average LFE slip rates of ~0.24 mm/s. When combined with the LFE magnitude, this number implies a stress drop of ~10 4 Pa, 2 to 3 orders of magnitude lower than ordinary earthquakes, and a rupture velocity of 0.7 km/s, 20% of the shear wave speed. Typical earthquakes are thought to have rupture velocities of ~80–90% of the shear wave speed. Together, the slow rupture velocity, low stress drops, and slow slip velocity explain why LFEs are depleted in high-frequency content relative to ordinary earthquakes and suggest that LFE sources represent areas capable of relatively higher slip speed in deep fault zones. Additionally, changes in rheology may not be required to explain both LFEs and slow slip; the same process that governs the slip speed during slow earthquakes may also limit the rupture velocity of LFEs.

California↗

USGS2016

Effective stress, friction and deep crustal faulting

Studies of crustal faulting and rock friction invariably assume the effective normal stress that determines fault shear resistance during frictional sliding is the applied normal stress minus the pore pressure. Here we propose an expression for the effective stress coefficient α f at temperatures and stresses near the brittle-ductile transition (BDT) that depends on the percentage of solid-solid contact area across the fault. α f varies with depth and is only near 1 when the yield strength of asperity contacts greatly exceeds the applied normal stress. For a vertical strike-slip quartz fault zone at hydrostatic pore pressure and assuming 1 mm and 1 km shear zone widths for friction and ductile shear, respectively, the BDT is at ~13 km. α f near 1 is restricted to depths where the shear zone is narrow. Below the BDT α f = 0 is due to a dramatically decreased strain rate. Under these circumstances friction cannot be reactivated below the BDT by increasing the pore pressure alone and requires localization. If pore pressure increases and the fault localizes back to 1 mm, then brittle behavior can occur to a depth of around 35 km. The interdependencies among effective stress, contact-scale strain rate, and pore pressure allow estimates of the conditions necessary for deep low-frequency seismicity seen on the San Andreas near Parkfield and in some subduction zones. Among the implications are that shear in the region separating shallow earthquakes and deep low-frequency seismicity is distributed and that the deeper zone involves both elevated pore fluid pressure and localization.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2013

Inferring fault rheology from low-frequency earthquakes on the San Andreas

Families of recurring low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) within nonvolcanic tremor (NVT) on the San Andreas fault in central California show strong sensitivity to shear stress induced by the daily tidal cycle. LFEs occur at all levels of the tidal shear stress and are in phase with the very small, ~400 Pa, stress amplitude. To quantitatively explain the correlation, we use a model from the existing literature that assumes the LFE sources are small, persistent regions that repeatedly fail during shear of a much larger scale, otherwise aseismically creeping fault zone. The LFE source patches see tectonic loading, creep of the surrounding fault which may be modulated by the tidal stress, and direct tidal loading. If the patches are small relative to the surrounding creeping fault then the stressing is dominated by fault creep, and if patch failure occurs at a threshold stress, then the resulting seismicity rate is proportional to the fault creep rate or fault zone strain rate. Using the seismicity rate as a proxy for strain rate and the tidal shear stress, we fit the data with possible fault rheologies that produce creep in laboratory experiments at temperatures of 400 to 600°C appropriate for the LFE source depth. The rheological properties of rock-forming minerals for dislocation creep and dislocation glide are not consistent with the observed fault creep because strong correlation between small stress perturbations and strain rate requires perturbation on the order of the ambient stress. The observed tidal modulation restricts ambient stress to be at most a few kilopascal, much lower than rock strength. A purely rate dependent friction is consistent with the observations only if the product of the friction rate dependence and effective normal stress is ~ 0.5 kPa. Extrapolating the friction rate strengthening dependence of phyllosilicates (talc) to depth would require the effective normal stress to be ~50 kPa, implying pore pressure is lithostatic. If the LFE source is on the order of tens of meters, as required by the model, rate-weakening friction rate dependence (e.g., olivine) at 400 to 600°C requires that the minimum effective pressure at the LFE source is ~ 2.5 MPa.

California↗