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Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub

Background Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). Methods and findings The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000–598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. Conclusions COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.

PLOS Medicine

Pathogenicity of West Nile virus and response to vaccination in sandhill cranes ( Grus canadensis ) using a killed vaccine

West Nile virus was introduced into the United States in the vicinity of New York, New York, USA in 1999. The virus has since killed large numbers of birds nationwide, especially, but not limited to, crows ( Corvus brachyrhinchos ). One sandhill crane ( Grus canadensis ) at the Bridgeport Zoo (Bridgeport, Connecticut, USA) reportedly died from West Nile virus, so sandhill cranes and endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ), both in the wild and in captive breeding colonies at United States Geological Service (USGS) Patuxent Wildlife Research Center (Laurel, Maryland, USA) were considered at risk. A killed vaccine in sandhill cranes was evaluated by vaccinating and then challenging these cranes with live West Nile virus. No sandhill cranes inoculated with the killed vaccine developed significant titers when compared with unvaccinated controls. No sandhill cranes inoculated with the vaccine and challenged with the virus died from West Nile virus infection. In addition, no unvaccinated challenged sandhill cranes died. However, 2 days postchallenge, vaccinated cranes had significantly less viremia (P < 0.05) than unvaccinated cranes. Seven days postchallenge vaccinated cranes had significantly less cloacal shedding of the virus (P < 0.05) than unvaccinated cranes and significantly less weight loss (P < 0.05) as compared with unvaccinated cranes. Vaccinated sandhill cranes developed significantly higher titers 14 days postchallenge and were viremic for shorter periods of time after challenge than unvaccinated individuals. Unvaccinated challenged cranes had glial cell aggregates in both the brain and brain stem areas, and this was not observed in vaccinated challenged cranes or in vaccinated unchallenged cranes.

Journal of Zoo and Wildlife Medicine

Age at vaccination may influence response to sylvatic plague vaccine (SPV) in Gunnison’s prairie dogs ( Cynomys gunnisoni )

Gunnison&rsquo;s prairie dogs ( Cynomys gunnisoni ) have been considered at greater risk from Yersinia pestis (plague) infection in the montane portion of their range compared to populations at lower elevations, possibly due to factors related to flea transmission of the bacteria or greater host susceptibility. To test the latter hypothesis and determine whether vaccination against plague with an oral sylvatic plague vaccine (SPV) improved survival, we captured prairie dogs from a C. g. gunnisoni or &ldquo;montane&rdquo; population and a C. g. zuniensis or &ldquo;prairie&rdquo; population for vaccine efficacy and challenge studies. No differences ( P = 0.63) were found in plague susceptibility in non-vaccinated animals between these two populations; however, vaccinates from the prairie population survived plague challenge at significantly higher rates ( P < 0.01) than those from the montane population. Upon further analysis, we determined that response to immunization was most likely associated with differences in age, as the prairie group was much younger on average than the montane group. Vaccinates that were juveniles or young adults survived plague challenge at a much higher rate than adults ( P < 0.01 and P = 0.02, respectively), but no difference ( P = 0.83) was detected in survival rates between control animals of different ages. These results suggest that host susceptibility is probably not related to the assumed greater risk from plague in the C. g. gunnisoni or &ldquo;montane&rdquo; populations of Gunnison&rsquo;s prairie dogs, and that SPV could be a useful plague management tool for this species, particularly if targeted at younger cohorts.

Colorado

Infectivity of attenuated poxvirus vaccine vectors and immunogenicity of a raccoonpox vectored rabies vaccine in the Brazilian Free-tailed bat ( Tadarida brasiliensis )

Bats (Order Chiroptera) are an abundant group of mammals with tremendous ecological value as insectivores and plant dispersers, but their role as reservoirs of zoonotic diseases has received more attention in the last decade. With the goal of managing disease in free-ranging bats, we tested modified vaccinia Ankara (MVA) and raccoon poxvirus (RCN) as potential vaccine vectors in the Brazilian Free-tailed bat ( Tadarida brasiliensis ), using biophotonic in vivo imaging and immunogenicity studies. Animals were administered recombinant poxviral vectors expressing the luciferase gene (MVA- luc , RCN- luc ) through oronasal (ON) or intramuscular (IM) routes and subsequently monitored for bioluminescent signal indicative of viral infection. No clinical illness was noted after exposure to any of the vectors, and limited luciferase expression was observed. Higher and longer levels of expression were observed with the RCN- luc construct. When given IM, luciferase expression was limited to the site of injection, while ON exposure led to initial expression in the oral cavity, often followed by secondary replication at another location, likely the gastric mucosa or gastric associated lymphatic tissue. Viral DNA was detected in oral swabs up to 7 and 9 days post infection (dpi) for MVA and RCN, respectively. While no live virus was detected in oral swabs from MVA-infected bats, titers up to 3.88 x 10 4 PFU/ml were recovered from oral swabs of RCN-infected bats. Viral DNA was also detected in fecal samples from two bats inoculated IM with RCN, but no live virus was recovered. Finally, we examined the immunogenicity of a RCN based rabies vaccine (RCN-G) following ON administration. Significant rabies neutralizing antibody titers were detected in the serum of immunized bats using the rapid fluorescence focus inhibition test (RFFIT). These studies highlight the safety and immunogenicity of attenuated poxviruses and their potential use as vaccine vectors in bats.

Vaccine

A effective DNA vaccine against diverse genotype J infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus strains prevalent in China

Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) is the most important pathogen threatening the aquaculture of salmonid fish in China. In this study, a DNA vaccine, designated pIHNch-G, was constructed with the glycoprotein (G) gene of a Chinese IHNV isolate SD-12 (also called Sn1203) of genotype J. The minimal dose of vaccine required, the expression of the Mx-1 gene in the muscle (vaccine delivery site) and anterior kidney, and the titers of the neutralizing antibodies produced were used to evaluate the vaccine efficacy. To assess the potential utility of the vaccine in controlling IHNV throughout China, the cross protective efficacy of the vaccine was determined by challenging fish with a broad range of IHNV strains from different geographic locations in China. A single 100 ng dose of the vaccine conferred almost full protection to rainbow trout fry (3 g) against waterborne or intraperitoneal injection challenge with IHNV strain SD-12 as early as 4 days post-vaccination (d.p.v.), and significant protection was still observed at 180 d.p.v. Intragenogroup challenges showed that the DNA vaccine provided similar protection to the fish against all the Chinese IHNV isolates tested, suggesting that the vaccine can be widely used in China. Mx-1 gene expression was significantly upregulated in the muscle tissue (vaccine delivery site) and anterior kidney in the vaccinated rainbow trout at both 4 and 7 d.p.v. Similar levels of neutralizing antibodies were determined with each of the Chinese IHNV strains at 60 and 180 d.p.v. This DNA vaccine should play an important role in the control of IHN in China.

Vaccine

DNA vaccine protects ornamental koi (Cyprinus carpio koi) against North American spring viremia of carp virus

The emergence of spring viremia of carp virus (SVCV) in the United States constitutes a potentially serious alien pathogen threat to susceptible fish stocks in North America. A DNA vaccine with an SVCV glycoprotein (G) gene from a North American isolate was constructed. In order to test the vaccine a challenge model utilizing a specific pathogen-free domestic koi stock and a cold water stress treatment was also developed. We have conducted four trial studies demonstrating that the pSGnc DNA vaccine provided protection in vaccinated fish against challenge at low, moderate, and high virus doses of the homologous virus. The protection was significant (p < 0.05) as compared to fish receiving a mock vaccine construct containing a luciferase reporter gene and to non-vaccinated controls in fish ranging in age from 3 to 14 months. In all trials, the SVCV-G DNA immunized fish were challenged 28-days post-vaccination (546 degree-days) and experienced low mortalities varying from 10 to 50% with relative percent survivals ranging from 50 to 88%. The non-vaccinated controls and mock construct vaccinated fish encountered high cumulative percent mortalities ranging from 70 to 100%. This is the first report of a SVCV DNA vaccine being tested successfully in koi. These experiments prove that the SVCV DNA (pSGnc) vaccine can elicit specific reproducible protection and validates its potential use as a prophylactic vaccine in koi and other vulnerable North American fish stocks.

Vaccine

A recombinant rabies vaccine that prevents viral shedding in rabid common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus)

Vampire bat transmitted rabies (VBR) is a continuing burden to public health and agricultural sectors in Latin America, despite decades-long efforts to control the disease by culling bat populations. Culling has been shown to disperse bats, leading to an increased spread of rabies. Thus, non-lethal strategies to control VBR, such as vaccination, are desired. Here, we evaluated the safety and efficacy of a viral-vectored recombinant mosaic glycoprotein rabies vaccine candidate (RCN-MoG) in vampire bats ( Desmodus rotundus ) of unknown history of rabies exposure captured in México and transported to the United States. Vaccination with RCN-MoG was demonstrated to be safe, even in pregnant females, as no evidence of lesions or adverse effects were observed. We detected rabies neutralizing antibodies in 28% (8/29) of seronegative bats post-vaccination. Survival proportions of adult bats after rabies virus (RABV) challenge ranged from 55–100% and were not significantly different among treatments, pre- or post-vaccination serostatus, and route of vaccination, while eight pups (1–2.5 months of age) used as naïve controls all succumbed to challenge (P<0.0001). Importantly, we found that vaccination with RCN-MoG appeared to block viral shedding, even when infection proved lethal. Using real-time PCR, we did not detect RABV nucleic acid in the saliva samples of 9/10 vaccinated bats that succumbed to rabies after challenge (one was inconclusive). In contrast, RABV nucleic acid was detected in saliva samples from 71% of unvaccinated bats (10/14 sampled, plus one inconclusive) that died of the disease, including pups. Low seroconversion rates post-vaccination and high survival of non-vaccinated bats, perhaps due to earlier natural exposure, limited our conclusions regarding vaccine efficacy. However, our findings suggest a potential transmission-blocking effect of vaccination with RCN-MoG that could provide a promising strategy for controlling VBR in Latin America beyond longstanding culling programs.

San Luis Potosi

Reversion to virulence and efficacy of an attenuated canarypox vaccine in Hawai'i 'Amakihi ( Hemignathus Virens )

Vaccines may be effective tools for protecting small populations of highly susceptible endangered, captive-reared, or translocated Hawaiian honeycreepers from introduced Avipoxvirus , but their efficacy has not been evaluated. An attenuated Canarypox vaccine that is genetically similar to one of two passerine Avipoxvirus isolates from Hawai&lsquo;i and distinct from Fowlpox was tested to evaluate whether Hawai&lsquo;i &lsquo;Amakihi ( Hemignathus virens ) can be protected from wild isolates of Avipoxvirus from the Hawaiian Islands. Thirty-one (31) Hawai&lsquo;i &lsquo;Amakihi were collected from high-elevation habitats on Mauna Kea Volcano, where pox transmission is rare, and randomly divided into two groups. One group was vaccinated with Poximune C&reg;, whereas the other group received a sham vaccination with sterile water. Four of 15 (27%) vaccinated birds developed life-threatening disseminated lesions or lesions of unusually long duration, whereas one bird never developed a vaccine-associated lesion or &ldquo;take.&rdquo; After vaccine lesions healed, vaccinated birds were randomly divided into three groups of five and challenged with either a wild isolate of Fowlpox (FP) from Hawai&lsquo;i, a Hawai&lsquo;i &lsquo;Amakihi isolate of a Canarypox-like virus (PV1), or a Hawai&lsquo;i &lsquo;Amakihi isolate of a related, but distinct, passerine Avipoxvirus (PV2). Similarly, three random groups of five unvaccinated &lsquo;Amakihi were challenged with the same virus isolates. Vaccinated and unvaccinated &lsquo;Amakihi challenged with FP had transient infections with no clinical signs of infection. Mortality in vaccinated &lsquo;Amakihi challenged with PV1 and PV2 ranged from 0% (0/5) for PV1 to 60% (3/5) for PV2. Mortality in unvaccinated &lsquo;Amakihi ranged from 40% (2/5) for PV1 to 100% (5/5) for PV2. Although the vaccine provided some protection against PV1, both potential for vaccine reversion and low efficacy against PV2 preclude its use in captive or wild honeycreepers.

Hawaii

Vaccination of endangered wildlife as a conservation tool: Hindsights and new horizons in the pandemic era

Vaccines are an established conservation tool that can reduce the threat of infectious disease in endangered wildlife populations. Vaccines exist for many infectious pathogens, and at a time of rapid technological advances in vaccinology, developing vaccines and vaccination programs for free-living endangered wildlife could help efforts to prevent extinctions from disease threats. Vaccination efforts could focus on protecting members of the target species or could be directed at reservoir populations to prevent pathogen spillover. Vaccination strategies need to be substantiated by research on safety and effectiveness, include risk and feasibility assessments, account for differences in host biology and disease epidemiology, and align with relevant regulatory frameworks. Engagement with stakeholders and the public is important to ensure the success of endangered species vaccination programs. Challenges such as funding, regulation, and societal acceptance are barriers to progress in vaccination programs for some species and geographic regions. We recommend the development of scientifically based international guidelines and a transdisciplinary forum with a specific emphasis on endangered wildlife vaccination. New technologies could be used collaboratively to prevent transmission of diseases for which vaccines are not currently available. Careful approaches and enhanced collaborations could help ensure the successful development of wildlife vaccination programs and promote resilience of endangered wildlife populations to increasing anthropogenic and environmental stressors on biodiversity.

Biological Conservation

Fluorescent biomarkers demonstrate prospects for spreadable vaccines to control disease transmission in wild bats

Vaccines that autonomously transfer among individuals have been proposed as a strategy to control infectious diseases within inaccessible wildlife populations. However, rates of vaccine spread and epidemiological efficacy in real-world systems remain elusive. Here, we investigate whether topical vaccines that transfer among individuals through social contacts can control vampire bat rabies—a medically and economically important zoonosis in Latin America. Field experiments in three Peruvian bat colonies, which used fluorescent biomarkers as a proxy for the bat-to-bat transfer and ingestion of an oral vaccine, revealed that vaccine transfer would increase population-level immunity up to 2.6 times beyond the same effort using conventional, non-spreadable vaccines. Mathematical models showed that observed levels of vaccine transfer would reduce the probability, size and duration of rabies outbreaks, even at low but realistically achievable levels of vaccine application. Models further predicted that existing vaccines provide substantial advantages over culling bats—the policy currently implemented in North, Central and South America. Linking field studies with biomarkers to mathematical models can inform how spreadable vaccines may combat pathogens of health and conservation concern before costly investments in vaccine design and testing.

Nature Ecology and Evotution

Efficacy of a glycoprotein DNA vaccine against viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS) in Pacific herring, Clupea pallasii Valenciennes

Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) and its associated disease state, viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS), is hypothesized to be a proximate factor accounting for the decline and failed recovery of Pacific herring populations in Prince William Sound, AK (Marty et al. 1998, 2003, 2010). Survivors of laboratory-induced VHSV epizootics develop resistance to subsequent viral exposure (Kocan et al. 2001; Hershberger et al. 2007, 2010), which is likely the result of immune system recognition of the viral glycoprotein (G) (Lecocq-Xhonneux et al. 1994), a surface antigen that contains neutralizing epitopes (Lorenzen, Olesen & Jorgensen 1990; J&oslash;rgensen et al. 1995) and cell attachment domains (Lecocq-Xhonneux et al. 1994; Estepa & Coll 1996). These properties have proven useful in the development of G-gene-based DNA vaccines for VHSV and a related rhabdovirus, infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) (Anderson et al. 1996; Heppell et al. 1998; Corbeil et al. 1999; Einer-Jensen et al. 2009). Rainbow trout fingerlings, Oncorhynchus mykiss (Walbaum), vaccinated with 1 &micro;g of either the VHS or IHN vaccine are protected from VHS when exposed to virus as early as 4 days (44 degree days) post-vaccination (p.v.) (Lorenzen et al. 2002). At later time points (80 days p.v.; 880 degree days), the level of cross-protection against VHS by IHN vaccination is either completely lost (60 days p.v.; 660 degree days) (3 g rainbow trout; 1 &micro;g vaccine dose) (Lorenzen et al. 2002) or present at intermediate levels (6.5 g rainbow trout; 1 &micro;g vaccine dose) (Einer-Jensen et al. 2009). Comparatively, VHS vaccination remains effective as long as 9 months (2520 degree days) p.v. (100 g rainbow trout; 0.5 &micro;g vaccine dose) (McLauchlan et al. 2003). These results suggest that IHN and VHS vaccination activate a rapid transitory innate immune response against VHSV that is followed by long-term adaptive immunity in VHS-vaccinated trout (Lorenzen et al. 2002).

Journal of Fish Diseases

Protection of bats (Eptesicus fuscus) against rabies following topical or oronasal exposure to a recombinant raccoon poxvirus vaccine

Rabies is an ancient neglected tropical disease that causes tens of thousands of human deaths and millions of cattle deaths annually. In order to develop a new vaccine for potential use in bats, a reservoir of rabies infection for humans and animals alike, an in silico antigen designer tool was used to create a mosaic glycoprotein (MoG) gene using available sequences from the rabies Phylogroup I glycoprotein. This sequence, which represents strains more likely to occur in bats, was cloned into raccoonpox virus (RCN) and the efficacy of this novel RCN-MoG vaccine was compared to RCN-G that expresses the glycoprotein gene from CVS-11 rabies or luciferase (RCN- luc , negative control) in mice and big brown bats ( Eptesicus fuscus ). Mice vaccinated and boosted intradermally with 1 x 10 7 plaque forming units (PFU) of each RCN-rabies vaccine construct developed neutralizing antibodies and survived at significantly higher rates than controls. No significant difference in antibody titers or survival was noted between rabies-vaccinated groups. Bats were vaccinated either oronasally (RCN-G, RCN-MoG) with 5x10 7 PFU or by topical application in glycerin jelly (RCN-MoG, dose 2x10 8 PFU), boosted (same dose and route) at 46 days post vaccination (dpv), and then challenged with wild-type big brown variant RABV at 65 dpv. Prior to challenge, 90% of RCN-G and 75% of RCN-MoG oronasally vaccinated bats had detectable levels of serum rabies neutralizing antibodies. Bats from the RCN- luc and topically vaccinated RCN-MoG groups did not have measurable antibody responses. The RCN-rabies constructs were highly protective and not significantly different from each other. RCN-MoG provided 100% protection (n = 9) when delivered oronasally and 83% protection (n = 6) when delivered topically; protection provided by the RCN-G construct was 70% (n = 10). All rabies-vaccinated bats survived at a significantly (P ≤ 0.02) higher rate than control bats (12%; n = 8). We have demonstrated the efficacy of a novel, in silico designed rabies MoG antigen that conferred protection from rabies challenge in mice and big brown bats in laboratory studies. With further development, topical or oronasal administration of the RCN-MoG vaccine could potentially mitigate rabies in wild bat populations, reducing spillover of this deadly disease into humans, domestic mammals, and other wildlife.

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Assessment of a recombinant F1-V fusion protein vaccine intended to protect Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) from plague

As part of an ongoing restoration program in Colorado, USA, we evaluated adverse reactions and seroconversion in captive Canada lynx ( Lynx canadensis ) after vaccination with a recombinant F1-V fusion protein vaccine against Yersinia pestis , the bacterium that causes plague. Ten adult female lynx received the F1-V vaccine; 10 source- and age-matched lynx remained unvaccinated as controls. All of the vaccinated and control lynx remained apparently healthy throughout the confinement period. We observed no evidence of injection site or systemic reactions to the F1-V vaccine. Among vaccinated lynx, differences in log 10 reciprocal antibody titers measured in sera collected before and after vaccination (two doses) ranged from 1.2 to 5.2 for anti-F1 antibodies and from 0.6 to 5.2 for anti-V antibodies; titers in unvaccinated lynx did not change appreciably over the course of confinement prior to release, and thus differences in anti-F1 ( P =0.003) and anti-V ( P =0.0005) titers were greater among vaccinated lynx than among controls. Although our findings suggest that the F1-V fusion protein vaccine evaluated here is likely to stimulate antibody responses that may help protect Canada lynx from plague, we observed no apparent differences in survival between vaccinated and unvaccinated subject animals. Retrospectively, 22 of 50 (44%; 95% confidence interval 29&ndash;59%) unvaccinated lynx captured or recaptured in Colorado during 2000&ndash;08 had passive hemagglutination antibody titers >1:16, consistent with exposure to Y. pestis ; paired pre- and postrelease titers available for eight of these animals showed titer increases similar in magnitude to those seen in response to vaccination, suggesting at least some lynx may naturally acquire immunity to plague in Colorado habitats.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases

Biotechnology and DNA vaccines for aquatic animals

Biotechnology has been used extensively in the development of vaccines for aquaculture. Modern molecular methods such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR), cloning and microarray analysis have facilitated antigen discovery, construction of novel candidate vaccines, and assessments of vaccine efficacy, mode of action, and host response. This review focuses on DNA vaccines for finfish to illustrate biotechnology applications in this field. Although DNA vaccines for fish rhabdoviruses continue to show the highest efficacy, DNA vaccines for several other viral and bacterial fish pathogens have now been proven to provide significant protection against pathogen challenge. Studies of the fish rhabdovirus DNA vaccines have elucidated factors that affect DNA vaccine efficacy as well as the nature of the fish innate and adaptive immune responses to DNA vaccines. As tools for managing aquatic animal disease emergencies, DNA vaccines have advantages in speed, flexibility, and safety, and one fish DNA vaccine has been licensed.

OIE Revue Scientifique et Technique

Assessing vaccination as a control strategy in an ongoing epidemic: Bovine tuberculosis in African buffalo

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is an exotic disease invading the buffalo population ( Syncerus caffer ) of the Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa. We used a sex and age-structured epidemiological model to assess the effectiveness of a vaccination program and define important research directions. The model allows for dispersal between a focal herd and background population and was parameterized with a combination of published data and analyses of over 130 radio-collared buffalo in the central region of the KNP. Radio-tracking data indicated that all sex and age categories move between mixed herds, and males over 8 years old had higher mortality and dispersal rates than any other sex or age category. In part due to the high dispersal rates of buffalo, sensitivity analyses indicate that disease prevalence in the background population accounts for the most variability in the BTB prevalence and quasi-eradication within the focal herd. Vaccination rate and the transmission coefficient were the second and third most important parameters of the sensitivity analyses. Further analyses of the model without dispersal suggest that the amount of vaccination necessary for quasi-eradication (i.e. prevalence < 5%) depends upon the duration that a vaccine grants protection. Vaccination programs are more efficient (i.e. fewer wasted doses) when they focus on younger individuals. However, even with a lifelong vaccine and a closed population, the model suggests that >70% of the calf population would have to be vaccinated every year to reduce the prevalence to less than 1%. If the half-life of the vaccine is less than 5 years, even vaccinating every calf for 50 years may not eradicate BTB. Thus, although vaccination provides a means of controlling BTB prevalence it should be combined with other control measures if eradication is the objective.

Kruger National Park

Safety and immunogenicity of poultry vaccine for protecting critically endangered avian species against highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, United States

In 2023, an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza occurred among critically endangered California condors ( Gymnogyps californianus ), and > 21 died. We evaluated safety, immunogenicity, vaccination strategies, and correlates of antibody response of an influenza vaccine for poultry in black vultures ( Coragyps atratus ) and then California condors. We noted differences in antibody titers between vaccinated and unvaccinated birds (vultures p < 0.004; condors p­ < 0.02) but no adverse effects of vaccination. All vaccinated vultures and 80% of vaccinated condors showed maximum measured antibody response within the published range associated with survival of vaccinated and virally challenged chickens. We noted weak evidence of higher antibody responses for birds given two 0.5-mL vaccines versus those given one 1-mL vaccine but no correlation between antibody titers and sex for either species or between antibody titers and bone lead concentrations in vultures. Our results prompted initiation of a vaccination program for condors that could reduce spread of this disease among highly threatened species.

Emerging Infectious Diseases

Efficacy of commercial canarypox vaccine for protecting Hawai'i 'Amakihi from field isolates of Avipoxvirus

At least three variants of avian pox virus are present in Hawai‘i - Fowlpox from domestic poultry and a group of genetically distinct viruses that cluster within two clades (Pox Variant 1 and Pox Variant 2) that are most similar to Canarypox based on DNA sequence of the virus 4b core protein gene. We tested whether Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi can be protected from wild virus isolates with an attenuated live Canarypox vaccine that is closely related to isolates that cluster within clade 1 (Pox Variant 1) based on sequence of the attenuated Canarypox virus 4b core protein. Thirty-one (31) Hawai`i ‘Amakihi ( Hemignathus virens ) with no prior physical evidence of pox infection were collected on Mauna Kea from xeric, high elevation habitats with low pox prevalence and randomly divided into two groups. One group of 16 was vaccinated with Poximmune C&reg; while the other group received a sham vaccination with virus diluent. Four of 15 (27%) vaccinated birds developed potentially life-threatening disseminated lesions or lesions of unusually long duration, while one bird never developed a vaccine-associated lesion or "take". After vaccine-associated lesions healed, vaccinated birds were randomly divided into three groups of five and challenged with either a wild isolate of Fowlpox, a Hawai`i `Amakihi isolate of a Canarypox-like virus from clade 1 (Pox Variant 1) or a Hawai`i `Amakihi isolate of a Canarypox-like virus from clade 2 (Pox Variant 2). Similarly, three random groups of five unvaccinated ‘Amakihi were challenged with the same virus isolates. Vaccinated and unvaccinated ‘Amakihi challenged with Fowlpox had transient infections with no clinical signs of infection. Mortality in vaccinated ‘Amakihi that were challenged with Pox Variant 1 and Pox Variant 2 ranged from 0% (0/5) for Pox Variant 1 to 60% (3/5) for Pox Variant 2. Mortality in unvaccinated ‘Amakihi ranged from 40% (2/5) for Pox Variant 1 to 100% (5/5) for Pox Variant 2. While the vaccine provided some protection against Pox Variant 1, serious side effects and low efficacy against Pox Variant 2 make it risky to use in captive or wild honeycreepers.

Hawai'i