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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2006

Trends in streamflow of the San Pedro River, southeastern Arizona, and regional trends in precipitation and streamflow in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico

This study was done to improve the understanding of trends in streamflow of the San Pedro River in southeastern Arizona. Annual streamflow of the river at Charleston, Arizona, has decreased by more than 50 percent during the 20th century. The San Pedro River is one of the few remaining free-flowing perennial streams in the arid Southwestern United States, and the riparian forest along the river supports several endangered species and is an important habitat for migratory birds. Trends in seasonal and annual precipitation and streamflow were evaluated for surrounding areas in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico to provide a regional perspective for the trends of the San Pedro River. Seasonal and annual streamflow trends and the relation between precipitation and streamflow in the San Pedro River Basin were evaluated to improve the understanding of the causes of trends. There were few significant trends in seasonal and annual precipitation or streamflow for the regional study area. Precipitation and streamflow records were analyzed for 11 time periods ranging from 1930 to 2002; no significant trends were found in 92 percent of the trend tests for precipitation, and no significant trends were found in 79 percent of the trend tests for streamflow. For the trends in precipitation that were significant, 90 percent were positive and most of those positive trends were in records of winter, spring, or annual precipitation that started during the mid-century drought in 1945-60. For the trends in streamflow that were significant, about half were positive and half were negative. Trends in precipitation in the San Pedro River Basin were similar to regional precipitation trends for spring and fall values and were different for summer and annual values. The largest difference was in annual precipitation, for which no trend tests were significant in the San Pedro River Basin, and 23 percent of the trend tests were significantly positive in the rest of the study area. Streamflow trends for the San Pedro River were different from regional streamflow trends. All seasonal flows for the San Pedro River, except winter flows, had significant decreasing trends, and seasonal flows for most streams in the rest of the study area had either no trend or a significant increasing trend. Two streams adjacent to the San Pedro River Basin (Whitewater Draw and Santa Cruz River), however, had significant decreasing trends in summer streamflow. Factors that caused the decreasing trends in streamflow of the San Pedro River at Charleston were investigated. Possible factors were fluctuations in precipitation and air temperature, changes in watershed characteristics, human activities, or changes in seasonal distribution of bank storage. This study statistically removed or accounted for the variation in streamflow caused by fluctuations in precipitation. Thus, the remaining variation or trend in streamflow was caused by factors other than precipitation. Two methods were used to partition the variation in streamflow and to determine trends in the partitioned variation: (1) regression analysis between precipitation and streamflow using all years in the record and evaluation of time trends in regression residuals, and (2) development of regression equations between precipitation and streamflow for three time periods (early, middle, and late parts of the record) and testing to determine if the three regression equations were significantly different. The methods were applied to monthly values of total flow (average flow) and storm runoff (maximum daily mean flow) for 1913-2002, and to monthly values of low flow (3-day low flow) for 1931-2002. Statistical tests provide strong evidence that factors other than precipitation caused a decrease in streamflow of the San Pedro River. Factors other than precipitation caused significant decreasing trends in streamflows for late spring through early winter and did not cause significant trends for late winter through early spring. Total flows had significant decreasing trends in June through December, low flows had significant decreasing trends in May through December, and storm runoff had significant decreasing trends in July through September. The effects of factors other than precipitation were tested only for July through October for storm runoff. Besides fluctuations in precipitation, the principal factors that could have caused decreasing streamflow trends are (1) changes in watershed characteristics such as changes in riparian vegetation, changes in upland vegetation, and changes in stream-channel morphology, and (2) human activities such as ground-water pumping, construction of runoff-detention structures, urbanization, and cattle ranching (grazing). Changes in upland and riparian vegetation likely were major factors in the decreasing trends in total streamflows and low flows. Total flows and low flows in summer and fall were significantly affected by factors other than precipitation, but late winter flows were not significantly affected. The significant effects coincide with high rates of transpiration from vegetation in the summer and the nonsignificant effects coincide with low rates of transpiration in the late winter. Another piece of evidence that implicates vegetation as a cause is that the upland and riparian vegetation of the San Pedro River Basin changed during the 20th century. The relative proportions of different species changed in upland vegetation (woody plants increased and grasses decreased), and the areal extent and density of riparian vegetation increased substantially. Ground-water pumping in the United States and Mexico had a mixed influence on streamflow trends at Charleston, Arizona; statistical analyses indicate that seasonal pumping from wells near the river for irrigation in the spring and summer was a major factor in the decrease in low flows and that year-round pumping from wells in the regional aquifer away from the river was not a major factor in the decrease in low flows. If regional pumping had caused a trend, the pumping should have affected low flows for all months of the year, but factors other than precipitation did not cause significant trends in low flows for January, February, March, and May. Most of the local pumping near the river was during the spring and summer, and this seasonal pumping probably caused some decreases in summer low flows. These conclusions are for trends from 1913 to 2002, and regional pumping in the United States and Mexico could affect streamflow at Charleston in the future, because regional ground-water pumping often has a delayed effect on streamflows.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2019

Water-quality trends in US rivers: Exploring effects from streamflow trends and changes in watershed management

We present a conceptual model that explores the relationship of streamflow trends to 15 water-quality parameters at 370 sites across the contiguous United States (US). Our analytical framework uses discrete water-quality data, daily streamflow records, and a statistical model to estimate water-quality trends between 1982 and 2012 and parse these trends into the amount of change attributed to trends in streamflow versus changes in watershed management , such as changes in point or non-point sources related to pollution control efforts. We conceptualize a water-quality trend as an additive function of these two trend components. We found that for most of these records the water-quality trends were more strongly affected by changes in watershed management as opposed to trends in streamflow. However, the importance of these trend components on water quality varied by estimate type (i.e. concentration versus load trends), parameter, and site. Trends in load were more influenced by changes in the streamflow regime than trends in concentration. Trends in major ions, salinity, and sediment were more sensitive to changes in streamflow than nutrients. When results were aggregated by site, 25% of the sites had at least 1 parameter where streamflow trends attributed >7.5% to the water-quality trend for concentrations. For loads, this was the case for 66% of the sites. The findings of this work have important implications for the analysis of water-quality trends. Understanding the relative role of streamflow and management changes can help to isolate the effects of pollution control efforts on water quality and provide clearer understanding of progress, or lack thereof, towards water-quality goals.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2022

Water-quality trends in the Delaware River Basin calculated using multisource data and two methods for trend periods ending in 2018

Many organizations in the Delaware River Basin (DRB) monitor surface-water quality for regulatory, scientific, and decision-making purposes. In support of these purposes, over 260,000 water-quality records provided by 8 different organizations were compiled, screened, and used to generate water-quality trends in the DRB. These trends, for periods of record that end in 2018, were generated for 124 sites and up to 16 constituents using 2 trend methods: the Seasonal Kendall Test and the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season model. Seasonal Kendall Tests were performed on all water-quality records to detect monotonic trends in concentration over the period of record and for as many as four additional trend periods (1978–2018, 1998–2018, 2003–18, and 2008–18). The Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season model was applied to water-quality records that passed more stringent screening criteria and was used to detect monontonic and nonmonotonic trends, account for variations in streamflow, and estimate annual concentrations. These two trend methods produced different trend directions less than 1 percent of the time, illustrating general agreement between the methods despite the different approaches and data input requirements. Overall, the changes in concentration for salinity constituents (specific conductance and total dissolved solids), chloride, and sodium were increases; those increases were some of the largest changes observed in the basin, and they occurred at faster rates over time. Total dissolved solids concentration trends at 4 of the 60 sites increased from below to above the level of concern threshold (a secondary drinking water threshold) over the period of record, indicating potentially meaningful degradation in water quality. Nutrient constituent (ammonia, nitrate, orthophosphate, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus) concentrations tended to decrease over the period of record, although fewer sites had significant trends and the changes in concentration were smaller compared to the salinity constituents. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus were the only nutrient constituents to have decreasing concentration trends that crossed from above to below the level of concern threshold, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ecoregional nutrient criteria, (EPA, undated c). This finding indicates water-quality improvement at sites with these trends (nine sites with total nitrogen trends and one site with a total phosphorus trend), although many sites were still in exceedance of the level of concern. Trends for total suspended solids and some major ions (calcium, magnesium, potassium) were largely nonsignificant or variable between sites, with no prevalent patterns across the DRB; however, sulfate concentrations decreased at most sites. Cumulative land-surface change within each watershed had a strong positive relation with changes in water-quality concentrations for the salinity constituents and most major ions, but not for the other constituents, indicating that land-surface changes are related to the sources and transport of these constituents. Investigating long-term trends (a decade or longer) in water quality can help the DRB water management community quantify the success of management practices and identify potential threats to water availability.

Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2003

Stratigraphy and vertical hydraulic conductivity of the St. Francois Confining Unit in the Viburnum Trend and evaluation of the Unit in the Viburnum Trend and exploration areas, southeastern Missouri

The confining ability of the St. Francois confining unit (Derby-Doerun Dolomite and Davis Formation) was evaluated in ten townships (T. 31?35 N. and R. 01?02 W.) along the Viburnum Trend of southeastern Missouri. Vertical hydraulic conductivity data were compared to similar data collected during two previous studies 20 miles south of the Viburnum Trend, in two lead-zinc exploration areas that may be a southern extension of the Viburnum Trend. The surficial Ozark aquifer is the primary source of water for domestic and public-water supplies and major springs in southern Missouri. The St. Francois confining unit lies beneath the Ozark aquifer and impedes the movement of water between the Ozark aquifer and the underlying St. Francois aquifer (composed of the Bonneterre Formation and Lamotte Sandstone). The Bonneterre Formation is the primary host formation for lead-zinc ore deposits of the Viburnum Trend and potential host formation in the exploration areas. For most of the more than 40 years the mines have been in operation along the Viburnum Trend, about 27 million gallons per day were being pumped from the St. Francois aquifer for mine dewatering. Previous studies conducted along the Viburnum Trend have concluded that no large cones of depression have developed in the potentiometric surface of the Ozark aquifer as a result of mining activity. Because of similar geology, stratigraphy, and depositional environment between the Viburnum Trend and the exploration areas, the Viburnum Trend may be used as a pertinent, full-scale model to study and assess how mining may affect the exploration areas. Along the Viburnum Trend, the St. Francois confining unit is a complex series of dolostones, limestones, and shales that generally is 230 to 280 feet thick with a net shale thickness ranging from less than 25 to greater than 100 feet with the thickness increasing toward the west. Vertical hydraulic conductivity values determined from laboratory permeability tests were used to represent the St. Francois confining unit along the Viburnum Trend. The Derby-Doerun Dolomite and Davis Formation are statistically similar, but the Davis Formation would be the more hydraulically restrictive medium. The shale and carbonate values were statistically different. The median vertical hydraulic conductivity value for the shale samples was 62 times less than the carbonate samples. Consequently, the net shale thickness of the confining unit along the Viburnum Trend significantly affects the effective vertical hydraulic conductivity. As the percent of shale increases in a given horizon, the vertical hydraulic conductivity decreases. The range of effective vertical hydraulic conductivity for the confining unit in the Viburnum Trend was estimated to be a minimum of 2 x 10-13 ft/s (foot per second) and a maximum of 3 x 10-12 ft/s. These vertical hydraulic conductivity values are considered small and verify conclusions of previous studies that the confining unit effectively impedes the flow of ground water between the Ozark aquifer and the St. Francois aquifer along the Viburnum Trend. Previously-collected vertical hydraulic conductivity data for the two exploration areas from two earlier studies were combined with the data collected along the Viburnum Trend. The nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis statistical test shows the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the St. Francois confining unit along the Viburnum Trend, and west and east exploration areas are statistically different. The vertical hydraulic conductivity values generally are the largest in the Viburnum Trend and are smallest in the west exploration area. The statistical differences in these values do not appear to be attributed strictly to either the Derby-Doerun Dolomite or Davis Formation, but instead they are caused by the differences in the carbonate vertical hydraulic conductivity values at the three locations. The calculated effective vertical hydraulic conductivity range for the St. Franc

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2017

Water-quality trends in the nation’s rivers and streams, 1972–2012—Data preparation, statistical methods, and trend results

Since passage of the Clean Water Act in 1972, Federal, State, and local governments have invested billions of dollars to reduce pollution entering rivers and streams. To understand the return on these investments and to effectively manage and protect the Nation’s water resources in the future, we need to know how and why water quality has been changing over time. As part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Project, of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Program, data from the U.S. Geological Survey, along with multiple other Federal, State, Tribal, regional, and local agencies, have been used to support the most comprehensive assessment conducted to date of surface-water-quality trends in the United States. This report documents the methods used to determine trends in water quality and ecology because these methods are vital to ensuring the quality of the results. Specific objectives are to document (1) the data compilation and processing steps used to identify river and stream sites throughout the Nation suitable for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology trend analysis, (2) the statistical methods used to determine trends in target parameters, (3) considerations for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology data and streamflow data when modeling trends, (4) sensitivity analyses for selecting data and interpreting trend results with the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season method, and (5) the final trend results at each site. The scope of this study includes trends in water-quality concentrations and loads (nutrient, sediment, major ion, salinity, and carbon), pesticide concentrations and loads, and metrics for aquatic ecology (fish, invertebrates, and algae) for four time periods: (1) 1972–2012, (2) 1982–2012, (3) 1992–2012, and (4) 2002–12. In total, nearly 12,000 trends in concentration, load, and ecology metrics were evaluated in this study; there were 11,893 combinations of sites, parameters, and trend periods. The final trend results are presented with examples of how to interpret the results from each trend model. Interpretation of the trend results, such as causal analysis, is not included.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2011

Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators ( Alligator mississippiensis ) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001–2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations.

Florida↗
USGS1991

The computer program estimate trend (ESTREND), a system for the detection of trends in water-quality data

Computerized statistical and graphical procedures were developed for use in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) investigations of trend in stream water-quality data. These procedures, identified as EStimate TREND (ESTREND), are described in this paper to assist USGS investigators involved in multiple-station studies of water-quality trends. Additional discussion focuses on certain statistical and operational decisions required in multiple-station analysis of trends. The statistical methods used in ESTREND overcome common statistical problems encountered by conventional statistical trend techniques in the analysis of water-quality data. The problems include data that are non-normal and seasonally varying and water-quality records with missing values, 'less-than' (censored) values, and outliers, all of which adversely affect the performance of conventional statistical techniques. Parametric and nonparametric statistical trend tests are used in ESTREND. A nonparametric method, the Seasonal Kendall test, is used for data that have few less-than values or data that have been censored at only one reporting limit. A parametric test for trend involving a maximum likelihood estimation method is used for data that have been censored at multiple reporting limits. The Seasonal Kendall test for uncensored data allows for the removal of flow variability in water-quality data which improves the performance of the statistical trend tests. Menu-driven procedures in ESTREND allow the user to easily retrieve water-quality data, analyze data for trend, and view tabular and graphical results of analyses.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2012

The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2013

Groundwater-level trends and forecasts, and salinity trends, in the Azraq, Dead Sea, Hammad, Jordan Side Valleys, Yarmouk, and Zarqa groundwater basins, Jordan

Changes in groundwater levels and salinity in six groundwater basins in Jordan were characterized by using linear trends fit to well-monitoring data collected from 1960 to early 2011. On the basis of data for 117 wells, groundwater levels in the six basins were declining, on average about -1 meter per year (m/yr), in 2010. The highest average rate of decline, -1.9 m/yr, occurred in the Jordan Side Valleys basin, and on average no decline occurred in the Hammad basin. The highest rate of decline for an individual well was -9 m/yr. Aquifer saturated thickness, a measure of water storage, was forecast for year 2030 by using linear extrapolation of the groundwater-level trend in 2010. From 30 to 40 percent of the saturated thickness, on average, was forecast to be depleted by 2030. Five percent of the wells evaluated were forecast to have zero saturated thickness by 2030. Electrical conductivity was used as a surrogate for salinity (total dissolved solids). Salinity trends in groundwater were much more variable and less linear than groundwater-level trends. The long-term linear salinity trend at most of the 205 wells evaluated was not increasing, although salinity trends are increasing in some areas. The salinity in about 58 percent of the wells in the Amman-Zarqa basin was substantially increasing, and the salinity in Hammad basin showed a long-term increasing trend. Salinity increases were not always observed in areas with groundwater-level declines. The highest rates of salinity increase were observed in regional discharge areas near groundwater pumping centers.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2005

Recent water temperature trends in the lower Klamath River, California

Elevated water temperatures have been implicated as a factor limiting the recovery of anadromous salmonids in the Klamath River basin. This article reviews evidence of a multi-decade trend of increasing temperatures in the lower main-stem Klamath River above the ocean and, based on model simulations, finds a high probability that water temperature has been increasing by approximately 0.5??C/decade (95% confidence interval [Cl] = 0.42-0.60??C/decade) since the early 1960s. The season of high temperatures that are potentially stressful to salmonids has lengthened by about 1 month over the period studied, and the average length of main-stem river with cool summer temperatures has declined by about 8.2 km/decade. Water temperature trends seem unrelated to any change in main-stem water availability but are consistent with measured basinwide air temperature increases. Main-stem warming may be related to the cyclic Pacific Decadal Oscillation, but if this trend continues it might jeopardize the recovery of anadromous salmonids in the Klamath River basin. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2011

Continuous salinity and temperature data from San Francisco Estuary, 1982-2002: Trends and the salinity-freshwater inflow relationship

The U.S. Geological Survey and other federal and state agencies have been collecting continuous temperature and salinity data, two critical estuarine habitat variables, throughout San Francisco estuary for over two decades. Although this dynamic, highly variable system has been well studied, many questions remain relating to the effects of freshwater inflow and other physical and biological linkages. This study examines up to 20 years of publically available, continuous temperature and salinity data from 10 different San Francisco Bay stations to identify trends in temperature and salinity and quantify the salinity–freshwater inflow relationship. Several trends in the salinity and temperature records were identified, although the high degree of daily and interannual variability confounds the analysis. In addition, freshwater inflow to the estuary has a range of effects on salinity from −0.0020 to −0.0096 (m 3 s −1 ) −1 discharge, depending on location in the estuary and the timescale of analyzed data. Finally, we documented that changes in freshwater inflow to the estuary that are within the range of typical management actions can affect bay-wide salinities by 0.6–1.4. This study reinforces the idea that multidecadal records are needed to identify trends from decadal changes in water management and climate and, therefore, are extremely valuable.

California↗
USGS1999

Historical trends in salinity and substrate in central and northern Florida Bay: A Paleoecological Reconstruction using modern analogue data

Understanding the natural spatial and temporal variability that exists within an ecosystem is a critical component of efforts to restore systems to their natural state. Analysis of benthic foraminifers and molluscs from modern monitoring sites within Florida Bay allows us to determine what environmental parameters control spatial and temporal variability of their assemblages. Faunal assemblages associated with specific environmental parameters, including salinity and substrate, serve as proxies for an interpretation of paleoecologic data. The faunal record preserved in two shallow (<2 m) cores in central Florida Bay (Russell Bank and Bob Allen Bank) provides a record of historical trends in environmental parameters for those sites. Analysis of these two cores has revealed two distinct patterns of salinity change at these sites: 1) a long-term trend of slightly increasing average salinity; and 2) a relatively rapid change to salinity fluctuations of greater frequency and amplitude, beginning around the turn of the century and becoming most pronounced after 1940. The degree of variability in substrate types at each locality limits interpretations of substrate trends to specific sites. A common sequence of change is present in the Russell Bank and Bob Allen Bank cores: from mixed grass and bare-sediment indicators at the bottom of the cores, to bare-sediment dwellers in the center, to a dominance of vegetative-cover indicators at the top of the cores. Changes in interpreted salinity patterns around the turn of the century are consistent with the timing of the construction of the Flagler Railroad from 1905 to 1912, and the Tamiami Trail and the canal and levee systems between 1915 and 1928. Beginning around 1940, the changes in the frequency and amplitude of salinity fluctuations may be related to changes in water management practices, meteorologic events (frequent hurricanes coupled with severe droughts in 1943 and 1944), or a combination of factors. The correspondence of these changes in Florida Bay with changes in the terrestrial Everglades suggests factors affecting the entire ecosystem are responsible for the salinity and substrate patterns seen in Florida Bay.

Florida↗
USGS2007

Estimating trend precision and power to detect trends across grouped count data

Ecologists commonly use grouped or clustered count data to estimate temporal trends in counts, abundance indices, or abundance. For example, the U.S. Breeding Bird Survey data represent multiple counts of birds from within each of multiple, spatially defined routes. Despite a reliance on grouped counts, analytical methods for prospectively estimating precision of trend estimates or statistical power to detect trends that explicitly acknowledge the characteristics of grouped count data are undescribed. These characteristics include the fact that the sampling variance is an increasing function of the mean, and that sampling and group-level variance estimates are generally estimated on different scales (the sampling and log scales, respectively). We address these issues for repeated sampling of a single population using an analytical approach that has the flavor of a generalized linear mixed model, specifically that of a negative binomial-distributed count variable with random group effects. The count mean, including grand intercept, trend, and random group effects, is modeled linearly on the log scale, while sampling variance of the mean is estimated on the log scale via the delta method. Results compared favorably with those derived using Monte Carlo simulations. For example, at trend = 5% per temporal unit, differences in standard errors and in power were modest relative to those estimated by simulation (???|11|% and ???|16|%, respectively), with relative differences among power estimates decreasing to ???|7|% when power estimated by simulations was ???0.50. Similar findings were obtained using data from nine surveys of fingernail clams in the Mississippi River. The proposed method is suggested (1) where simulations are not practical and relative precision or power is desired, or (2) when multiple precision or power calculations are required and where the accuracy of a fraction of those calculations will be confirmed using simulations. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗
USGS2003

Historical trend in river ice thickness and coherence in hydroclimatological trends in Maine

We analyzed long-term records of ice thickness on the Piscataquis River in central Maine and air temperature in Maine to determine whether there were temporal trends that were associated with climate warming. The trend in ice thickness was compared and correlated with regional time series of winter air temperature, heating degree days (HDD), date of river ice-out, seasonal center-of-volume date (SCVD) (date on which half of the stream runoff volume during the period 1 Jan. to 31 May has occurred), water temperature, and lake ice-out date. All of these variables except lake ice-out date showed significant temporal trends during the 20th century. Average ice thickness around 28 February decreased by about 23 cm from 1912 to 2001. Over the period 1900 to 1999, winter air temperature increased by 1.7??C and HDD decreased by about 7.5%. Final ice-out date on the Piscataquis River occurred earlier (advanced), by 0.21 days yr-1 over the period 1931 to 2002, and the SCVD advanced by 0.11 days yr-1 over the period 1903 to 2001. Ice thickness was significantly correlated (P-value < 0.01) with winter air temperature, HDD, river ice-out, and SCVD. These systematic temporal trends in multiple hydrologic indicator variables indicate a coherent response to climate forcing.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2017

Precipitation collector bias and its effects on temporal trends and spatial variability in National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network data

Precipitation samples have been collected by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program's (NADP) National Trends Network (NTN) using the Aerochem Metrics Model 301 (ACM) collector since 1978. Approximately one-third of the NTN ACM collectors have been replaced with N-CON Systems, Inc. Model ADS 00-120 (NCON) collectors. Concurrent data were collected over 6 years at 12 NTN sites using colocated ACM and NCON collectors in various precipitation regimes. Linear regression models of the colocated data were used to adjust for relative bias between the collectors. Replacement of ACM collectors with NCON collectors resulted in shifts in 10-year seasonal precipitation-weighted mean concentration (PWMC) trend slopes for: cations (−0.001 to −0.007 mgL −1 yr −1 ), anions (−0.009 to −0.028 mgL −1 yr −1 ), and hydrogen ion (+0.689 meqL- 1 yr −1 ). Larger shifts in NO 3 − and SO 4 −2 seasonal PWMC trend slopes were observed in the Midwest and Northeast US, where concentrations are generally higher than in other regions. Geospatial analysis of interpolated concentration rasters indicated regions of accentuated variability introduced by incorporation of NCON collectors into the NTN.

Environmental Pollution↗
USGS2018

Monitoring global tree mortality patterns and trends. Report from the VW symposium ‘Crossing scales and disciplines to identify global trends of tree mortality as indicators of forest health’

From the 21stto the 23rdJune 2017, the Herrenhausen castle inHannover/Germany hosted a diverse and large crowd with morethan 70 tree physiologists, forest ecologists, forest inventoryexperts, remote-sensing scientists, and vegetation modele rs. Par-ticipants from six continent s and from more than 20 countriesgathered to discuss how to improve the scientific determination ofglobal-scale patterns, drivers, and trends of a threatening phe-nomenon: the apparent emergence of recent widespread treemortality events in diverse forests around the world.Continuin g the theme of a workshop held at the Max-PlanckInstitute for Biogeochemistry in Jena (Germany) in 2014 (Hart-mann et al., 2015), the Hanover meeting intended to developapproaches, tools and collaborative actions to accelerate progress inaddressing regional patterns and trends of tree mortality (Williamset al., 2013). Over the last decade climate change related treemortality events have been increasingly reported around the globe(van Mantgem et al., 2009; Carnicer et al., 2011; Peng et al., 2011;Brienen et al., 2015), but to what degree this is a global trend,amplifying under increasing climate change, remains uncertain.

New Phytologist↗
USGS2014

Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013)

Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2008

L5 TM radiometric recalibration procedure using the internal calibration trends from the NLAPS trending database

From the Landsat program's inception in 1972 to the present, the earth science user community has benefited from a historical record of remotely sensed data. The multispectral data from the Landsat 5 (L5) Thematic Mapper (TM) sensor provide the backbone for this extensive archive. Historically, the radiometric calibration procedure for this imagery used the instrument's response to the Internal Calibrator (IC) on a scene-by-scene basis to determine the gain and offset for each detector. The IC system degraded with time causing radiometric calibration errors up to 20 percent. In May 2003 the National Landsat Archive Production System (NLAPS) was updated to use a gain model rather than the scene acquisition specific IC gains to calibrate TM data processed in the United States. Further modification of the gain model was performed in 2007. L5 TM data that were processed using IC prior to the calibration update do not benefit from the recent calibration revisions. A procedure has been developed to give users the ability to recalibrate their existing Level-1 products. The best recalibration results are obtained if the work order report that was originally included in the standard data product delivery is available. However, many users may not have the original work order report. In such cases, the IC gain look-up table that was generated using the radiometric gain trends recorded in the NLAPS database can be used for recalibration. This paper discusses the procedure to recalibrate L5 TM data when the work order report originally used in processing is not available. A companion paper discusses the generation of the NLAPS IC gain and bias look-up tables required to perform the recalibration.

Conference Paper↗