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An ANCOVA model for porosity and its uncertainty for oil reservoirs based on TORIS dataset

Porosity is one of the most important parameters to assess in-place oil or gas in reservoirs, and to evaluate recovery from enhanced production operations. Since it is relatively well-established to determine porosity using different laboratory and field methods, its value is usually determined at many locations across a reservoir as part of the common practice to capture reservoir heterogeneity and the variability in values. This suite of measurements and the distribution of values are most valuable for probabilistic reservoir assessments, and for spatial modeling if the exact data locations are known. Despite the importance of individual measurements to set the range of values for probabilistic studies, it is not always possible to access these data due to confidentiality. In most cases, commercial or publicly available databases that assessments may rely on usually report only mean values of porosity, like any other reservoir data, or they may not report a value at all. This makes both quantifying the mean value and the uncertainty around it difficult for probabilistic assessments. In this study, the TORIS (Tertiary Oil Recovery Information System) dataset of the National Petroleum Council and the U.S. Department of Energy was used to model porosity and the uncertainty around predicted values. TORIS is an integrated dataset of production data, reservoir properties, and project databases of crude oil reservoirs in the United States. The model presented in the paper was based on ANCOVA (Analysis of Co-Variance) of data from 1038 reservoirs from the TORIS dataset for porosity prediction, validation and testing for quantitative and qualitative parameters that may be readily available in most cases, and to estimate uncertainty around the mean values. This model also explored association of porosity values to different parameters, and to different depositional systems and diagenetic overprint conditions. Furthermore, an ANN (Artificial Neural Network) model was created to compare the predicted values of both models. Results showed that the ANN model was able to represent more of the variability, however it lacked the insights that might be gained from the ANCOVA model.

Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering

Field Marks of a Celebration: Roger Tory Peterson's Centennial Birthday

A red letter day in my life was April 27, 1934, the day I first met Roger. A birding friend, Elisha Atkins, had invited Clinton Reynolds and me to dinner to meet a famous ornithologist. We would all be going on a field trip to Newburyport on the Massachusetts coast the next day. The dinner conversation revolved about a new field guide that Mr. Peterson had just completed and that would be available in a few days. I couldn?t wait to see it! I had been birding since 1930, keying out live birds with Chapman?s Handbook of Birds of Eastern North America (1912) and Hoffman?s Guide to the Birds of New England and Eastern New York (1904). Both books had extensive keys based on color, size, bill shape and season, and pictures of heads or feet of some species. Positive bird identification was a long and tedious process. The field trip the next day with Roger was memorable, not for finding any rare or unusual birds, but for learning how to identify birds to species at a single good glance. I recall asking Roger if he could find a ring-billed gull among a group of gulls resting on a roof beside the Merrimac River. He immediately said, ?No there aren?t any ring-bills there; they would be immediately apparent by their slimmer shape.? There was no need to check the foot color on each bird. While it is easy to say that Roger revolutionized field guides, I truly believe there are few people worldwide under the age of 90 who can really appreciate the difference between the old way of keying out birds and the instant recognition promoted by the Peterson system. Today we take for granted that amateurs can identify birds accurately. Monitoring bird populations by Breeding Bird Surveys, atlas studies, Breeding Bird Censuses, migration banding, and many other studies relies on it. None of these would be possible if we were still keying out live birds using books designed to identify dead birds in the hand.

Audubon Naturalist News

The Washington Biologists' Field Club : Its members and its history (1900-2006)

This book is based on the interesting one-hundred-plus-year history of the Club and its members. Plummers Island and the historic cabin on the Island have served as a common meeting area where the Club members have conducted research and held many social activities for over a century. The history has been written and revised over the years by members, and the biographical sketches also have been collected and written by the members. The Club was formed in 1900 and incorporated as a society in 1901 for scientists in the Washington, D.C., area. In recent years the Club has sponsored research by many non-member local scientists with grants totaling over $305,000. The cumulative total of 267 members represents all branches of natural science, with a strong emphasis on biology as the Club name indicates. In addition to the biologists there have been famous naturalists (e.g., John Burroughs), high-level administrators (e.g., Ira Gabrielson), and well-known artists (e.g., Roger Tory Peterson). Most members have been biological scientists, working for agencies in the Washington, D.C., area, who have published many articles and books dealing with biology and related subjects. The book is publIshed mainly for the benefit of the living Club members and for relatives of the deceased members. The members hope that the book will find its way into libraries across the country and that in the future, persons interested in some of the pioneer scientists, in the various professional areas of science, can obtain biographical information from a well-documented source. Most of the 542 illustrations of the members, cabin, and the Island have not been published previously. It is hopeful that the biographical sketches, pictures, and other information presented in this book can generate new information for future publications and for the website of the Washington Biologists' Field Club, which is updated frequently.

Book

The Evolving Landscape of the Columbia River Gorge: Lewis and Clark and Cataclysms on the Columbia

TAVELERS RETRACING LEWIS AND CLARKE JOURNEY to the Pacific over the past two hundred years have witnessed tre mendous change to the Columbia River Gorge and its pri mary feature, the Columbia River. Dams, reservoirs, timber harvest, altered fisheries, transportation infrastructure, and growth and shrinkage of communities have transformed the river and valley.1 This radically different geography of human use and habitation is commonly contrasted with the sometimes romantic view of a prior time provided both by early nineteenth-century chroniclers and present-day critics of the modern condition ? an ecotopia of plentiful and perpetual resources sustaining a stable culture from time immemorial. Reality is more com plicated. Certainly the human-caused changes to the Columbia River and the gorge since Lewis and Clark have been profound; but the geologic his tory of immense floods, landslides, and volcanic eruptions that occurred before their journey had equally, if not more, acute effects on landscapes and societies of the gorge. In many ways, the Lewis and Clark Expedi tion can be viewed as a hinge point for the Columbia River, the changes engineered to the river and its valley in the two hundred years since their visit mirrored by tremendous changes geologically engendered in the thousands of years before.

Oregon Historical Society Quarterly

Wetland selection by female Ring-Necked Ducks (Aythya collaris) in the Southern Atlantic Flyway

On the wintering grounds, wetland selection by waterfowl is influenced by spatiotemporal resource distribution. The ring-necked duck (Aythya collaris) winters in the southeastern United States where a disproportionate amount of Atlantic Flyway ring-necked duck harvest occurs. We quantified female ring-necked duck selection for wetland characteristics during and after the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 waterfowl hunting seasons using discrete choice modeling under a Bayesian framework. Relative probability of selection was primarily influenced by characteristics at the local wetland scale. Relative probability of selection was higher for flooded agriculture and vegetated wetlands than open water and was positively influenced by wetland area during the winter. After the hunting season, the relative probability of selection decreased for flooded agriculture but increased for vegetated wetlands, and the effect of wetland area decreased in magnitude. We attribute changes in selection during and after the hunting season to dietary shifts related to migratory preparation, resource depletion, and reproductive pairing. Understanding the wetland characteristics that wintering waterfowl select, and the spatial scale at which selection occurs, is important for informing effective wetland management and waterfowl harvest practices.

Florida, Georgia

Winter survival of female Ring-Necked Ducks in the Southern Atlantic Flyway

North American waterfowl harvest regulations are largely guided by the status of breeding populations. Nonetheless, understanding the demographics of wintering waterfowl populations can elucidate the effects of hunting pressure on population dynamics. The ring‐necked duck ( Aythya collaris ) breeds and winters in all North American administrative flyways and is one of the most abundant and most harvested diving ducks in the Atlantic Flyway. But few studies have investigated the winter ecology of ring‐necked ducks. We used a known‐fate analysis to estimate period survival probability using data from 87 female ring‐necked ducks marked with satellite transmitters in 2 regions of the southern Atlantic Flyway during winters of 2017–2018 and 2018–2019. Winter (128‐day) survival probability was higher for individuals in the Red Hills region of southern Georgia and northern Florida (0.875, 95% CI = 0.691–0.952) than individuals in central South Carolina (0.288, 95% CI = 0.082–0.514). We attribute the regional disparity in winter survival probabilities to differences in hunting pressure, which are reflected in the number of harvests we observed in each region. Our findings warrant further investigation into regional variation in winter survival of southern Atlantic Flyway ring‐necked ducks, and, specifically, the relationship between variable harvest pressure and winter survival and its influence on ring‐necked duck population dynamics and adaptive harvest management decisions.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Diet patterns of island foxes on San Nicolas Island relative to feral cat removal

Island foxes ( Urocyon littoralis ) are a species of conservation concern that occur on six of the Channel Islands off the coast of southern California. We analysed island fox diet on San Nicolas Island during 2006–12 to assess the influence of the removal of feral cats ( Felis catus ) on the food use by foxes. Our objective was to determine whether fox diet patterns shifted in response to the cat removal conducted during 2009–10, thus indicating that cats were competing with foxes for food items. We also examined the influence of annual precipitation patterns and fox abundance on fox diet. On the basis of an analysis of 1975 fox scats, use of vertebrate prey – deer mice ( Peromyscus maniculatus ), birds, and lizards – increased significantly during and after the complete removal of cats ( n = 66) from the island. Deer mouse abundance increased markedly during and after cat removal and use of mice by foxes was significantly related to mouse abundance. The increase in mice and shift in item use by the foxes was consistent with a reduction in exploitative competition associated with the cat removal. However, fox abundance declined markedly coincident with the removal of cats and deer mouse abundance was negatively related to fox numbers. Also, annual precipitation increased markedly during and after cat removal and deer mouse abundance closely tracked precipitation. Thus, our results indicate that other confounding factors, particularly precipitation, may have had a greater influence on fox diet patterns.

California

Successes and opportunities for solutions-oriented conservation research: Lessons learned from avian science

Conservation science struggles with an ongoing divide between research and action. Given its history of broad public engagement and multi-scale management coordination, avian conservation typifies many of the challenges, successes, and opportunities across the broader field of conservation and is rich with examples that may guide solutions-oriented conservation science. In semi-structured focus groups composed of bird conservation scientists and practitioners from various backgrounds, we discussed the definition, characteristics, and examples of solutions-oriented conservation science. Our discussions highlighted several examples where successful application of avian conservation science led to change in programs, policy, regulations, and social systems, including several with co-benefits for local communities. These successes were characterized by communication, collaboration, and co-development with local communities, decision-makers, practitioners, and Indigenous communities. We identified remaining opportunities for improvement, including aligning incentives and priorities between research and practice, working across disciplines to mobilize solutions, dismantling barriers to inclusion, and emphasizing the importance of relationship-building in conservation science. We outline suggestions that researchers can use to incorporate these lessons from solutions-oriented avian conservation science into training and mentoring programs.

Conservation Science and Practice

Waterfowl move less in heterogeneous and human-populated landscapes, with implications for spread of avian influenza viruses

Animal movements contribute to the spread of infectious diseases and are driven in part by environmental conditions. We investigated the links among the environment, animal movement, and infectious disease dynamics in waterfowl, which are among the primary wildlife hosts of avian influenza viruses. By combining telemetry data on 4606 individuals from 26 waterfowl species with data on land cover, weather, and vegetation, we found that waterfowl moved less in areas of higher land cover heterogeneity and higher human population density. Moreover, predicted waterfowl movement distances were weakly but positively correlated with distances between detections of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild waterfowl, suggesting that environmental conditions might contribute to the spread of this disease via their effects on bird movements. By considering wildlife movements alongside other drivers of infectious disease dynamics, such as livestock production and human mobility, we move closer to predicting outbreaks and informing interventions.

Ecology Letters

BioTIME: A database of biodiversity time series for the Anthropocene

Motivation The BioTIME database contains raw data on species identities and abundances in ecological assemblages through time. These data enable users to calculate temporal trends in biodiversity within and amongst assemblages using a broad range of metrics. BioTIME is being developed as a community-led open-source database of biodiversity time series. Our goal is to accelerate and facilitate quantitative analysis of temporal patterns of biodiversity in the Anthropocene. Main types of variables included The database contains 8,777,413 species abundance records, from assemblages consistently sampled for a minimum of 2 years, which need not necessarily be consecutive. In addition, the database contains metadata relating to sampling methodology and contextual information about each record. Spatial location and grain BioTIME is a global database of 547,161 unique sampling locations spanning the marine, freshwater and terrestrial realms. Grain size varies across datasets from 0.0000000158 km 2 (158 cm 2 ) to 100 km 2 (1,000,000,000,000 cm 2 ). Time period and grain BioTIME records span from 1874 to 2016. The minimal temporal grain across all datasets in BioTIME is a year. Major taxa and level of measurement BioTIME includes data from 44,440 species across the plant and animal kingdoms, ranging from plants, plankton and terrestrial invertebrates to small and large vertebrates. Software format .csv and .SQL.

Global Ecology and Biogeography

When the wild things are: Defining mammalian diel activity and plasticity

Circadian rhythms are a mechanism by which species adapt to environmental variability and fundamental to understanding species behavior. However, we lack data and a standardized framework to accurately assess and compare temporal activity for species during rapid ecological change. Through a global network representing 38 countries, we leveraged 8.9 million mammalian observations to create a library of 14,587 standardized diel activity estimates for 445 species. We found that less than half the species’ estimates were in agreement with diel classifications from the reference literature and that species commonly used more than one diel classification. Species diel activity was highly plastic when exposed to anthropogenic change. Furthermore, body size and distributional extent were strongly associated with whether a species is diurnal or nocturnal. Our findings provide essential knowledge of species behavior in an era of rapid global change and suggest the need for a new, quantitative framework that defines diel activity logically and consistently while capturing species plasticity.

Science Advances

Nonequilibrium clumped isotope signals in microbial methane

Methane is a key component in the global carbon cycle with a wide range of anthropogenic and natural sources. Although isotopic compositions of methane have traditionally aided source identification, the abundance of its multiply-substituted “clumped” isotopologues, e.g., 13 CH 3 D, has recently emerged as a proxy for determining methane-formation temperatures; however, the impact of biological processes on methane’s clumped isotopologue signature is poorly constrained. We show that methanogenesis proceeding at relatively high rates in cattle, surface environments, and laboratory cultures exerts kinetic control on 13 CH 3 D abundances and results in anomalously elevated formation temperature estimates. We demonstrate quantitatively that H 2 availability accounts for this effect. Clumped methane thermometry can therefore provide constraints on the generation of methane in diverse settings, including continental serpentinization sites and ancient, deep groundwaters.

Science

Rapid increase in antibodies to influenza A virus H5 and N1 in Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) following the introduction of 2.3.4.4B H5N1 into North America

Clade 2.3.4.4b Eurasian-origin H5N1 entered North America in late 2021 and spread across the continent. While studies have characterized the antibody response mounted by dabbling ducks following exposure, little data are available for diving ducks. This study sought to identify influenza A virus (IAV) infection and antibodies in Lesser and Greater Scaup captured in Maryland, Illinois, and Rhode Island. In Maryland, IAV seroprevalence increased from the 2021/2022 to 2022/2023 sampling season, with IAV antibody prevalence increasing for juvenile (38% to 80%) and adult (82% to 90%) Lesser Scaup. While adult Lesser Scaup sampled in Illinois in 2021/2022 had IAV antibody prevalence comparable to those sampled in Maryland (76% and 82%, respectively), they had higher antibody prevalence to both H5 (48% and 18%) and N1 (68% and 35%), potentially due to being sampled in March versus December and January. Our data suggest that Lesser Scaup had limited antibodies to highly pathogenic H5 IAV prior to the introduction of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 to North America, but relevant antibodies were widely observed in the months and year following. Our more limited data suggest similar trends may have occurred in Greater Scaup as well.

Canadian Journal of Microbiology

Performance evaluation of natural and nature-based features for coastal protection and co-benefits

Built infrastructure, such as seawalls and levees, has long been used to reduce shoreline erosion and protect coastal properties from flood impacts. In contrast, natural and nature-based features (NNBF), including marshes, mangroves, oyster reefs, coral reefs, and seagrasses, offer not only coastal protection but also a range of valuable ecosystem services. There is no clear understanding of the capacity of either natural habitats or NNBF integrated with traditional engineered infrastructure to withstand extreme events, nor are there well-defined breakpoints at which these habitats fail to provide coastal protection. Evaluating existing NNBF strategies using a standardized set of metrics can help to assess their effectiveness to better inform design criteria. This review identifies a selection of NNBF projects with long-term monitoring programs and synthesizes the monitoring data to provide a literature-based performance assessment. It also explores the integration of NNBF with existing gray infrastructure to enhance overall effectiveness.

Annual Review of Marine Science